Workflow
MPOB供需报告
icon
Search documents
《农产品》日报-20251105
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 03:41
Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views Palm Oil - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to gradually stop falling and recover after the release of risks following the MPOB supply - demand report. The overall view of near - term weakness and long - term strength remains unchanged. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are in a weakening trend and seeking support at 8500 yuan [1]. Soybean Oil - Uncertainty in US biodiesel policy and potential CBOT soybean price corrections may drag down CBOT soybean oil. In the domestic market, soybean supply is sufficient, but oil mills' losses support their price - holding mentality [1]. Pork - The pig price has changed from strong to weak due to sufficient market supply. However, the slowdown in the overall slaughter progress in November may boost the pig price to some extent. The current market is in a weakening range - bound pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread can be held [4]. Meal - Although domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at high levels, cost - side support is strengthening, and the downward space is limited. There is an 800 - million - ton gap in shipments from November to January, and it is difficult to purchase cheap soybeans [7]. Corn - Currently, the corn market is under pressure from concentrated supply, and the futures price rebound is limited, showing a low - level range - bound pattern. In the long - term, it will be in a tight - balance situation with policy support [8]. Sugar - The expected increase in the supply surplus and weakening energy prices have led to a weakening of the raw sugar price. The domestic sugar price is also under pressure but is relatively resistant to decline due to cost support and market sentiment. The spot market is in a low - level range - bound pattern [13]. Eggs - In the short term, the egg market has a supply - demand imbalance, and prices are expected to be range - bound between 2900 - 3300. With the slow recovery of demand, prices may gradually rise [16]. Cotton - The new cotton cost provides strong support for the cotton price, but there is also hedging pressure. The downstream demand is weak, but the inventory pressure is not high. Short - term cotton prices are expected to be range - bound [18]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - On November 4, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8570 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous day; the futures price of P2601 was 8616 yuan, down 48 yuan. The basis of P2601 was - 46 yuan, up 18 yuan. The inventory is expected to reach about 2.44 million tons at the end of the month [1]. Soybean Oil - On November 4, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8420 yuan, up 50 yuan; the futures price of Y2601 was 8108 yuan, down 2 yuan. The basis of Y2601 was 312 yuan, up 52 yuan. The current soybean supply in the domestic market is sufficient, and the factory inventory is at a high level [1]. Pork - Futures: The basis of the main contract was 265 yuan, down 200 yuan; the price of the 2605 contract was 11860 yuan, up 60 yuan; the price of the 2601 contract was 11685 yuan, down 50 yuan. Spot: The prices in various regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan all decreased [4]. Meal - Soybean Meal: On November 4, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3050 yuan, up 10 yuan; the futures price of M2601 was 3015 yuan, down 11 yuan. The basis of M2601 was 35 yuan, up 21 yuan. Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2530 yuan, up 10 yuan; the futures price of RM2601 was 2497 yuan, up 6 yuan [7]. Corn - Corn Futures: The price of the 2601 contract was 2135 yuan, down 6 yuan; the basis was 15 yuan, up 6 yuan. Corn Starch: The price of the 2601 contract was 2444 yuan, down 9 yuan. The price in the Northeast is in a narrow - range shock, and the price in the North China is relatively stable [8]. Sugar - Futures: The price of the 2601 contract was 5481 yuan, down 18 yuan; the price of the 2605 contract was 5431 yuan, down 2 yuan. Spot: The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5750 yuan, and the price in Kunming was 5680 yuan, down 15 yuan [13]. Eggs - Futures: The price of the 12 - contract was 3144 yuan, down 14 yuan; the price of the 01 - contract was 3337 yuan, down 10 yuan. Spot: The price in the production area remained at 2.88 yuan per catty. The chicken - raising profit was - 24.44 yuan per bird, up 1.66 yuan [15]. Cotton - Futures: The price of the 2605 contract was 13522 yuan, down 60 yuan; the price of the 2601 contract was 13535 yuan, down 65 yuan. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14640 yuan, down 16 yuan. The commercial inventory increased by 68.4%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 4.3% [18].
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20251015
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the protein meal market, overnight soybean meal closed up in a volatile manner, while rapeseed meal closed slightly down. The US is working to ease trade tensions with China, alleviating concerns about US soybean exports. Although the market strongly anticipates a downward adjustment of US soybean yield per unit in the October USDA report, the report has been postponed due to the US government shutdown. With frequent market news, US soybean futures prices are mainly fluctuating. Domestically, the impact of tariffs on the market is weakening, and sufficient domestic supply still poses significant pressure on the short - term upward movement of domestic soybean meal futures [2]. - In the oil market, overnight oils showed weak performance. The MPOB September supply - demand report indicated that Malaysian palm oil production in September was 1.841 million tons, a 0.73% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1.428 million tons, a 7.7% month - on - month increase, basically in line with market expectations. By the end of September, Malaysian palm oil inventory was 2.3609 million tons, a 7.2% month - on - month increase. The MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation is higher than expected, and uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and increased macro - disturbances may put short - term pressure on the oil market. However, in the medium to long term, the Southeast Asian production area will enter the production reduction season, and international biodiesel policies will continue to support oil consumption demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8240, 9330, 9959, 2902, 2388, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were - 28, - 34, - 63, - 30, - 12, and 26, with percentage changes of - 0.34%, - 0.36%, - 3.15%, - 1.02%, - 0.50%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread is now - 320 (previous value - 296), and the M9 - 1 spread is now - 74 (previous value - 85) [1]. 3.2 International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4420 ringgit/ton, 1006 cents/bushel, 51 cents/pound, and 275 dollars/ton respectively. The price changes were - 53, - 2, 0, and 0, with percentage changes of - 1.18%, - 0.20%, 0.08%, and 0.11% respectively [1]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of various oils and meals have different percentage changes. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8460, with a - 0.12% change [1]. - **Spreads**: The current spreads between different spot products have also changed compared to the previous values. For example, the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is now - 560 (previous value - 590) [1]. 3.4 Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits of various products have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current import and crushing profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 417 (previous value - 465) [1]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of various products have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current warehouse receipts of palm oil are 500 (previous value 1570) [1]. 3.6 Industry Information - As of the week ending October 10, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.89 per bushel, a 5.3% decrease from the previous week. In 2024, the average crushing profit was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023 [2]. - Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB) released the 2025/26 annual supply - demand report, predicting that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production will reach 177.6 million tons, slightly lower than last month's forecast of 177.67 million tons but a 3.6 - percentage - point increase from the 2024/25 season. The US Department of Agriculture's forecast is 175 million tons [2].
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20251014
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - **Protein Meal**: The night - session of soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed higher. Tensions in Sino - US trade relations weakened the export prospects of US soybeans, depressing US soybean prices. Although the market strongly expects the US Department of Agriculture to lower the US soybean yield per unit in this month's USDA report, the report is postponed due to the US government shutdown, suppressing market trading. With US soybeans being harvested and listed, reduced export demand will continue to pressure US soybean prices, which are expected to be weak. In the domestic market, the previous valuation of Sino - US trade improvement will be revised upwards due to the renewed trade conflict. The expectation of tight supply in the later period and the expectation of tariff upgrades will boost the performance of Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: The night - session of oils and fats showed a strong performance. The MPOB released this month's supply - demand report. In September, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.841 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%; exports were 1.428 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.7%, basically in line with market expectations. As of the end of September, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 2.3609 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.2%. The MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation is higher than expected. Meanwhile, uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and increased macro - disturbances may put short - term pressure on the oils and fats market. However, in the medium to long term, the Southeast Asian production areas will enter the production - reduction season, and international biodiesel policies will continue to support the consumption demand for oils and fats [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8,268, 9,364, and 10,022 respectively, with changes of - 34, - 74, and - 39, and percentage changes of - 0.41%, - 0.78%, and - 3.15%. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 2,932, 2,400, and 8,844 respectively, with changes of 10, - 58, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.34%, - 2.36%, and 0.29% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 were - 320, - 538, and - 380 respectively, compared with previous values of - 296, - 574, and - 602. The current values of ratios - spreads like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09 were - 74, 3, and 458 respectively, compared with previous values of - 85, 0, and 396 [1]. 3.2 International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4,473 ringgit/ton, 1,008 cents/bushel, 51 cents/pound, and 275 dollars/ton respectively, with changes of - 26, 1, 1, and - 1, and percentage changes of - 0.58%, 0.12%, 1.12%, and - 0.40% [1]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8,470 and 8,570 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.82% and - 0.81%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil were 9,320 and 9,260 respectively, with percentage changes of - 2.10% and - 2.11%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil were 10,270 and 10,270 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.96% and - 1.06% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil and other products were 202, etc. The current spot spreads such as the difference between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil was - 560, compared with a previous value of - 590 [1]. 3.4 Import and Crushing Profits - The current values of import and crushing profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. were - 465, 29, etc., compared with previous values of - 60, - 210, etc [1]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and other products were 25,444, 1,500, etc., compared with previous values of 25,444, 1,570, etc [1]. 3.6 Industry Information - As of October 11, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 11.1%, compared with 8.2% last week, 9.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 16.9% [2]. - The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) of the United States will release its September report on Thursday. Analysts expect the soybean crushing volume in September to be around 185 million to 190 million bushels, compared with 189.81 million bushels in August and 178.2 million bushels in the same period last year [2].