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广发期货《农产品》日报-20250917
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 06:40
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given reports. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports 粕类产业 - Domestic two - meal decline space is limited, and the cost support expectation of meal products in the fourth quarter is still strong. It is expected that 01 will operate in the range of 3000 - 3100 [1]. 生猪产业 - The slaughter volume of the breeding end has increased, and the spot pressure has been continuously realized. The short - term rebound of the futures price does not rule out the possibility of subsequent decline, and it is expected that the futures and spot prices will continue to bottom out [3]. 油脂 industry - Palm oil futures are expected to gradually rise to around 4500 ringgit and maintain a strong consolidation. Domestic palm oil futures are expected to follow the upward trend. For soybean oil, the supply in the United States supports the market, and the domestic soybean oil inventory has increased. The spot basis quotation may rise with the reduction of soybean supply [7]. 玉米 industry - In the short term, the market supply and demand are loose, and the futures price fluctuates weakly; in the medium term, it maintains a weak situation, and short - selling should be cautious [8]. 白糖 industry - The raw sugar price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic spot pressure still exists. The futures price is expected to stabilize around 5500 in the short term, but the rebound space is limited, and the idea of selling high is still maintained later [12]. cotton industry - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, and will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long term [14]. egg industry - The demand may drive up the egg price to the annual high, but the supply side may suppress the increase. After the replenishment of traders ends next week, the egg price in some areas may decline slightly [18]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 粕类产业 - **豆粕**: The current price in Jiangsu is 3030 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of M2601 is 3041 yuan, down 1 yuan; the basis is - 11 yuan, up 1 yuan; the spot basis in Jiangsu is m2601 - 90; the Brazilian 11 - month shipping schedule's disk import profit is 7 yuan, up 13 yuan [1]. - **菜粕**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2620 yuan, up 20 yuan; the futures price of RM2601 is 2518 yuan, up 14 yuan; the basis is 102 yuan, up 6 yuan; the Canadian 11 - month shipping schedule's disk import profit is 866 yuan, up 103 yuan [1]. - **Soybean**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3980 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract is 3924 yuan, down 15 yuan; the basis is 56 yuan, up 15 yuan; the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3900 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract is 3729 yuan, up 1 yuan; the basis is 171 yuan, down 1 yuan [1]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 239 yuan, up 1 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 121 yuan, up 10 yuan; the spot oil - meal ratio is 2.86, up 0.017; the main contract oil - meal ratio is 2.77, up 0.015; the spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread is 410 yuan, down 20 yuan; the 2601 spread is 523 yuan, down 15 yuan [1]. 生猪 industry - **Futures indicators**: The main contract basis is - 550 yuan, down 105 yuan; the price of live - hog 2511 is 13160 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the price of live - hog 2601 is 13680 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 11 - 1 spread is - 520 yuan, down 50 yuan; the main contract position is 84857, up 3795 [3]. - **Spot prices**: The prices in Henan, Shandong, Liaoning, Guangdong, Hunan, and Hebei have all decreased to varying degrees [3]. - **Spot indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 149204, up 1122; the weekly white - strip price is 20.10 yuan, unchanged; the weekly piglet price is 26.00 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly sow price is 32.51 yuan, unchanged; the weekly slaughter weight is 128.32 kg, up 0.1 kg; the weekly self - breeding profit is 17 yuan/head, down 35.8 yuan; the weekly purchased - piglet breeding profit is - 162 yuan, down 35.7 yuan; the monthly fertile sow inventory is 40420000 heads, down 10000 heads [3]. 油脂 industry - **Soybean oil**: The futures price of Y2601 is 8122 yuan, up 46 yuan; the basis is 238 yuan, up 4 yuan; the spot basis in Jiangsu in September is 01 + 210; the warehouse receipt is 24544, unchanged [7]. - **Palm oil**: The current price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9400 yuan, up 80 yuan; the futures price of P2601 is 9252 yuan, up 78 yuan; the basis is 148 yuan, up 2 yuan; the spot basis in Guangdong in September is 01 + 20; the disk import cost in Guangzhou Port in September is 9679.8 yuan, up 39.2 yuan; the disk import profit is - 428 yuan, up 39 yuan; the warehouse receipt is 1570, unchanged [7]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The current price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10060 yuan, up 120 yuan; the futures price of Ol601 is 9586 yuan, up 75 yuan; the basis is 474 yuan, up 45 yuan; the spot basis in Jiangsu in September is 01 + 200; the warehouse receipt is 8202, unchanged [7]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil is 296 yuan, down 4 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread of palm oil is 230 yuan, down 18 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed oil is 467 yuan, up 78 yuan; the spot soybean - palm oil spread is - 740 yuan, down 30 yuan; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread is - 1064 yuan, down 18 yuan; the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread is 1400 yuan, up 70 yuan; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread is 1635 yuan, up 111 yuan [7]. 玉米 industry - **Corn**: The price of corn 2511 at Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price is 2166 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the basis is 144 yuan, up 1 yuan; the 11 - 3 spread is - 2 yuan, up 3 yuan; the Shekou bulk grain price is 2420 yuan/ton, unchanged; the north - south trade profit is 39 yuan, unchanged; the CIF price is 1941 yuan, down 2 yuan; the import profit is 479 yuan, up 2 yuan; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning is 1003, up 379; the position is 1573720, up 2703; the warehouse receipt is 43975, up 232 [8]. - **Corn starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 is 2443 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Changchun is 2560 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang is 2800 yuan, unchanged; the basis is 117 yuan, unchanged; the 11 - 3 spread is - 32 yuan, up 10 yuan; the starch - corn futures spread is 277 yuan, up 1 yuan; the Shandong starch profit is - 33 yuan, up 3 yuan; the position is 335166, up 8120; the warehouse receipt is 9217, down 21 [8]. 白糖 industry - **Futures market**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5547 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the price of sugar 2605 is 5525 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the ICE raw sugar main contract is 15.88 cents/pound, down 0.08 cents; the 1 - 5 spread is 23 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract position is 385623, up 4016; the warehouse receipt is 11268, down 57; the effective forecast is 0, unchanged [12]. - **Spot market**: The price in Nanning is 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Kunming is 5865 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Nanning basis is 366 yuan, up 2 yuan; the Kunming basis is 341 yuan, up 12 yuan; the imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4418 yuan, up 20 yuan; the imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) is 5611 yuan, up 26 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Nanning is - 1472 yuan, up 20 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) and Nanning is - 279 yuan, up 26 yuan [12]. - **Industry situation**: The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales is 1000.00 million tons, up 114.00 million tons; the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi is 646.50 million tons, up 28.36 million tons; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi is 26.02 million tons, down 9.69 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales rate is 89.60%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi is 89.04%, up 0.62%; the national industrial inventory is 116.00 million tons, up 5.78 million tons; the sugar industrial inventory in Guangxi is 70.87 million tons, down 1.61 million tons; the sugar industrial inventory in Yunnan is 33.65 million tons, up 7.07 million tons; the sugar import is 13.00 million tons, up 8.00 million tons [12]. cotton industry - **Futures market**: The price of cotton 2605 is 13860 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of cotton 2601 is 13882 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the ICE US cotton main contract is 67.67 cents/pound, up 0.85 cents; the 5 - 1 spread is - 35 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract position is 492631, down 5664; the warehouse receipt is 4759, down 140; the effective forecast is 12, up 10 [14]. - **Spot market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang 3128B cotton is 15214 yuan, up 47 yuan; the CC Index 3128B is 15300 yuan, up 51 yuan; the FC Index M 1% is 13388 yuan/ton, unchanged; the difference between 3128B and the 01 contract is 1354 yuan, up 37 yuan; the difference between 3128B and the 05 contract is 1319 yuan, up 37 yuan; the difference between CC Index 3128B and FC Index M 1% is 1912 yuan, up 51 yuan [14]. - **Industry situation**: The industrial inventory is 148.17 million tons, down 33.85 million tons; the industrial inventory is 89.23 million tons, down 3.19 million tons; the import volume is 5.00 million tons, up 2.00 million tons; the bonded area inventory is 29.10 million tons, up 0.20 million tons; the year - on - year inventory of the textile industry is - 0.20%, down 1.00%; the yarn inventory days is 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the grey fabric inventory days is 33.87 days, down 1.31 days; the cotton outbound shipping volume is 53.46 million tons, up 9.86 million tons; the immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises C32s is - 2055.00 yuan/ton, down 36.10 yuan; the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles is 1045.00 billion yuan, up 83.70 billion yuan; the year - on - year monthly retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles is 3.10%, up 1.30%; the export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products is 123.93 billion US dollars, up 7.89 billion US dollars; the year - on - year monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products is 1.43%, up 0.91%; the export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 141.46 billion US dollars, down 10.16 billion US dollars; the year - on - year export value of clothing and clothing accessories is - 10.08%, down 9.47% [14]. egg industry - **Futures indicators**: The price of the egg 11 contract is 3113 yuan/500KG, down 30 yuan; the price of the egg 10 contract is 3090 yuan/500KG, down 36 yuan; the 11 - 10 spread is 23 yuan, up 6 yuan [17]. - **Spot indicators**: The egg - producing area price is 3.76 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan; the basis is 130 yuan/500KG, up 130 yuan; the egg - chick price is 2.60 yuan/feather, down 0.40 yuan; the culled - hen price is 4.61 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan; the egg - feed ratio is 2.50, up 0.07; the breeding profit is - 17.89 yuan/feather, up 4.71 yuan [17].
农产品日报:多空交织,棉价延续震荡-20250618
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 03:22
Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [3] Core View - Cotton prices are expected to continue oscillating in the short term due to a mix of positive and negative factors, with limited upside potential for continuous rebound [3] Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,525 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,762 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,862 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton. As of June 15, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 85%, the squaring rate was 19%, the boll - setting rate was 3%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 48% [1] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated narrowly. Macro - level positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations initially boosted domestic cotton prices, but uncertainty led to price retracement. The June USDA supply - demand report showed a decrease in global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 season, with a decline in ending stocks. US cotton产区 has seen improved drought conditions due to more rainfall. Domestically, commercial cotton inventories are de - stocking rapidly, but new - season cotton planting area is increasing, and demand is in the off - season [2] Group 2: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [6] Core View - Zhengzhou sugar futures prices mainly follow the trend of raw sugar, with a medium - to - long - term weakening trend [6] Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,691 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (+0.42%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,865 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. In the second half of May, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 5.47% year - on - year, the sugar production ratio increased, and sugar production increased by 8.86% year - on - year [3][4] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices oscillated and closed higher. Raw sugar prices dropped to a nearly four - year low due to the expected increase in production in the 25/26 season in Brazil, India, and Thailand. Domestically, favorable sales data supported spot prices, but with tightened imports of syrup and premixes, the supply - demand gap needs to be filled by out - of - quota imports. As raw sugar prices weakened, import profits emerged, increasing supply pressure expectations [5][6] Group 3: Pulp Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [8] Core View - Pulp prices are expected to continue oscillating at a low level in the short term due to pessimistic terminal demand expectations and a lack of positive drivers in the industry chain [8] Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5,220 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton (-1.02%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,120 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,250 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [6] - **Market Analysis**: Pulp futures prices oscillated weakly. On the supply side, Arauco's long - term contract prices have been continuously lowered, and domestic pulp imports increased in May, with high port inventories. On the demand side, European demand has not improved significantly, and domestic downstream demand is weak, with the paper - making industry in the traditional off - season from June to July [8]
油脂油料早报-20250613
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 02:42
Group 1: USDA Supply and Demand Report - US Soybeans - The estimated sowing area of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 83.5 million acres, the same as the May estimate [1] - The estimated harvested area of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 82.7 million acres, consistent with the May estimate [1] - The estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 52.5 bushels, unchanged from the May estimate [1] - The estimated production of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 4.34 billion bushels, the same as the May estimate [1] - The estimated export volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 1.815 billion bushels, unchanged from the May estimate [1] - The estimated ending stocks of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 295 million bushels, consistent with the May estimate [1] Group 2: USDA Supply and Demand Report - Global Soybeans - The estimated production of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 175 million tons, the same as the May estimate [1] - The estimated export volume of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 112 million tons, unchanged from the May estimate [1] - The estimated production of Argentine soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 48.5 million tons, the same as the May estimate [1] - The estimated export volume of Argentine soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 4.5 million tons, consistent with the May estimate [1] - The estimated import volume of Chinese soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 112 million tons, unchanged from the May estimate [1] - The estimated global soybean production in the 2025/26 season is 426.82 million tons, the same as the May estimate [1] - The estimated global soybean ending stocks in the 2025/26 season is 125.3 million tons, up from the May estimate of 124.33 million tons [1] Group 3: US Soybean Export Sales - For the week ending June 5, US current - market - year soybean export sales net increased by 61,400 tons, down 68% from the previous week and 74% from the four - week average, with market expectations of a net increase of 10 - 50 thousand tons [1] - For the week ending June 5, US next - year soybean export sales net increased by 58,100 tons, with market expectations of a net increase of 0 - 20 thousand tons [1] - For the week ending June 5, US soybean export shipments were 453,400 tons, up 47% from the previous week and 51% from the four - week average [1] - For the week ending June 5, US current - market - year soybean new sales were 155,500 tons, and next - market - year soybean new sales were 58,100 tons [1] Group 4: Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Production Estimates - IBGE expects Brazil's 2025 soybean production to be 165.16 million tons, up 13.9% from the previous year, with the planting area expected to be 47.542156 million hectares, up 3.3% from last month's estimate and 0.3% from the previous year [1] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its estimate of Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production by 30,000 tons to 5.03 million tons, and the soybean harvest rate has reached 93.2% [1] Group 5: Spot Prices - The report provides spot prices of various products including soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from June 6 - 12, 2025 [2]
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250508
Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Views - Analysts predict the 2025/2026 US soybean yield to be 4.338 billion bushels, with a range of 4.3 - 4.4 billion bushels, lower than the USDA's 4.37 billion bushels from the Agricultural Outlook Forum [2] - Anec expects Brazil's May 2025 soybean exports to be 12.6 million tons and soybean meal exports to be 1.87 million tons, both lower than last year [2] - Protein meal: Night - trading of soybean and rapeseed meal oscillated. The market is cautious about the Sino - US economic and trade talks. US soybean exports face pressure, and the abundant domestic supply in Q2 will pressure prices [2] - Oils: Night - trading of palm oil was weakly oscillating, while soybean and rapeseed oils rose. The short - term domestic soybean supply is tight, but will be sufficient in Q2. Palm oil fundamentals are weaker due to the production - increasing season [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, etc. are given, with price changes and percentage changes. For example, soybean oil rose 26 points (0.34%), palm oil fell 60 points (-0.75%) [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: Spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, etc. are presented, showing current and previous values [1] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, etc. are provided, along with price changes and percentage changes. For example, BMD palm oil fell 94 points (-2.42%) [1] Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various oils and meals in different regions are given, with percentage changes. For example, Tianjin's first - grade soybean oil rose 0.12% [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads are presented, showing current and previous values [1] Import and Crushing Profit - **Values and Changes**: Import and crushing profit values for different products are given, showing current and previous values. For example, the profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil improved from - 838 to - 769 [1] Warehouse Receipts - **Quantities and Changes**: Warehouse receipt quantities for different products are provided, showing current and previous values. For example, the soybean oil warehouse receipt quantity remained at 5,355 [1]
现货整体上调,豆粕偏强震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-04-15 03:31
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the粕类 and corn sectors is neutral [1][3] 2) Core Viewpoints - For the粕类 market, the USDA's April supply - demand report didn't significantly adjust South American data. Brazil's soybean harvest is bountiful, and the large quantity of arrivals starting from April will bring supply pressure to China. However, the report raised the US domestic soybean crushing demand, which is positive for US domestic soybean oil consumption, leading to a rebound in CBOT soybean prices. The impact of tariff policies on prices is significant, and future impacts need continuous attention to macro - policies. In China, it's the arrival window for Brazilian soybeans. Although the Brazilian soybean premium remains firm, the overall arrival volume in the next few months is large, and short - term downstream supply isn't tight. Policy changes and domestic soybean arrivals should be closely watched [2] - For the corn market, in China, farmers have mostly sold their remaining grain, and the supply subject has shifted to traders. The sales rhythm of traders is stable. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises is declining, the inventories at North and South ports are high, the procurement of feed enterprises in the sales areas is average, and port de - stocking is slow. The upcoming wheat harvest in North China will limit the upward space of corn prices. The impact of international trade policy changes should be closely monitored, and corn prices are expected to be stable with range - bound fluctuations [5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类 - **Market News and Important Data** - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3104 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2505 contract was 2721 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton or 1.15% [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3660 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3310 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3210 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2650 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: Brazilian farmers have sold over half of the 2024/25 soybean output, at least 86 million tons. The premium of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated slightly last weekend. On April 14, the CNF premium for imported Brazilian soybeans from May - July was 158 - 182 cents/bu, with a fluctuation of - 5 - 6 cents/bu from the previous day [1] - **Market Analysis** - The USDA report didn't adjust South American data much. Brazil's soybean harvest is good, and the large - scale arrival will bring supply pressure. The report raised US domestic soybean crushing demand, which is positive for US soybean oil consumption, and CBOT soybean prices rebounded. Tariff policies change rapidly and have a great impact on prices. In China, it's the arrival window for Brazilian soybeans. Although the premium is firm, the future arrival volume is large, and short - term supply isn't tight [2] Corn - **Market News and Important Data** - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2505 contract was 2267 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.13%; the corn starch 2505 contract was 2661 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.08% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: The corn harvest in Argentina accelerated slightly last week, advancing 2.8%. As of April 8, the harvest progress was 23.1%, and the harvested output was 13.6 million tons. The USDA predicted Argentina's 2024/25 corn output to be 50 million tons, unchanged from the previous month and last year. Ukraine raised the minimum export prices of wheat and corn in April [3][4] - **Market Analysis** - In China, farmers have sold most of their remaining grain, and the supply subject has shifted to traders. The sales rhythm of traders is stable. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises is declining, port inventories are high, and port de - stocking is slow. The upcoming wheat harvest in North China will limit the upward space of corn prices. Corn prices are expected to be stable with range - bound fluctuations, and international trade policy changes should be closely monitored [5]