报表走弱告别旧模式，新模式孕育着新机遇 行 业 及 产 业 房地产 2025 年 11 月 03 日 看好 ——2025Q1-Q3 房地产板块财报综述 本期投资提示： 评 相关研究 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 (8621)23297818× guzheng@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 25Q1-Q3 板块营收下降，毛利率微升、费率走高、减值占比下降，业绩继续大降。 2025Q1-Q3，房地产板块整体主营业务收入同比-10.4%，较 2024 年+8.9pct，主要 由于 22 年以来销售持续回落；从房企结构来看营收增速：三线+5.5%>二线-12.7%> 一线-15.4%。2025Q1-Q3，房地产板块整体净利润同比-125.1%，较 2024 年 +2385.1pct，各线房企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses investment opportunities and risks in the A-share market, emphasizing the importance of identifying sectors beyond the high-consensus growth areas like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals, especially as the market enters a phase of volatility [2]. Group 1: Market Overview - Since late June, A-share indices have experienced accelerated growth, primarily driven by high-consensus sectors, contributing significantly to overall index returns [2]. - Over 70% of industries underperformed the Wind All A Index, which rose by 24% from June 23 to September 24, indicating that low exposure to high-consensus sectors may hinder excess returns [2]. Group 2: Capacity Cycle Insights - The article highlights the significance of identifying turning point industries and elastic sectors from a capacity cycle perspective, noting that this strategy has yielded good excess returns during market downturns [4]. - Key industries identified for 2023 include communication equipment, commercial vehicles, and marine equipment, with consumer electronics and components expected to perform well in early 2024 [4]. Group 3: Capacity Cycle Phases - The capacity cycle is divided into six phases, ranging from supply-demand imbalance to industry expansion, with most sectors currently in the third phase of deep capacity reduction [5][6]. - Recent reports indicate significant progress in capacity reduction among listed companies, with non-financial corporate capital expenditure declining for five consecutive quarters, suggesting a move towards supply-demand balance [6]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Analysis - In the energy and raw materials sector, coal mining is projected to see a 141% increase in capital expenditure from 2022 to 2024, despite weak demand, indicating a shift towards phase one of supply-demand imbalance [8]. - Industrial metals and minor metals are favored due to their current capacity clearing status and demand growth driven by AI and global geopolitical factors [8]. Group 5: High-End Manufacturing - High-end manufacturing has shown significant improvement in capacity cycle positions, with automotive parts and communication equipment meeting supply clearing conditions [10]. - The battery sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with strong growth in demand and a reduction in capital expenditure across the industry [10]. Group 6: Traditional Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing - Traditional manufacturing sectors like marine equipment and motorcycles have begun new capital expenditure cycles, but demand growth remains crucial for future performance [11]. - Newly identified sectors for potential investment include engineering machinery, aquaculture, and feed, which have shown signs of capacity clearing and demand improvement [11].

Core Insights - The report indicates a shift in the banking sector's focus from fundamental expectations and growth thinking to strategy and trading thinking, highlighting the evolving landscape of investment approaches in the industry [2][29]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - Three significant regulatory actions have guided the banking industry from "wild growth" to orderly expansion: 1. In 2011, the tightening of city commercial banks' cross-regional expansion and the central bank's credit scale control ended the disorderly expansion of the banking sector [16][20]. 2. The introduction of the MPA assessment in 2016 served as a core regulatory framework, preventing small and medium-sized banks from circumventing regulations and promoting stability [21][23]. 3. The implementation of asset management regulations in 2018 significantly constrained the expansion of non-standard assets in banks, addressing risks associated with shadow banking [24][28]. Group 2: Valuation Framework - A new understanding of the valuation framework for banks is presented, emphasizing the "PB-ROE" model, where banks with higher ROE typically correspond to higher PB ratios. The introduction of dividend yield and payout ratio into this framework suggests that banks with an ROE above 11.7% could justify a PB valuation above 1 [32][33]. - The report notes a shift in the driving logic behind bank stock price increases from growth logic to dividend strategies, indicating a transition in market focus from numerator-driven factors (like ROE) to denominator-driven factors (like dividend yield) [32][33]. Group 3: Historical Performance Review - A comprehensive review of bank stocks from 2008 to 2022 reveals that the banking sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index, achieving nine rounds of excess returns lasting over three months. The core driving factors shifted from growth to dividends over this period [8][29]. - Specific periods of excess returns are highlighted, such as: 1. From November 2008 to July 2009, the sector achieved an absolute return of 139.8% and an excess return of 15.3% [19]. 2. In 2011, despite negative absolute returns, the sector still managed an excess return of 17.6% [19]. 3. The period from October 2014 to December 2014 saw an absolute return of 60% and an excess return of 14.9% [19]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests two main investment themes: 1. Anticipating a reduction in insurance preset interest rates in Q3 2025, it recommends focusing on high-dividend banks such as China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [3]. 2. The strong performance of small and medium-sized banks since the beginning of the year is expected to continue, with recommendations for banks like Industrial Bank, CITIC Bank, and Nanjing Bank based on valuation, dividends, and fundamentals [3].