政策细心呵护之下，今年最好的销售季节即将到来。但业内也隐隐有些不安。 8月以来，脆弱的楼市预期一直被一则消息扰动：规划审批口径正在收紧，"面积红利"行将消失。以"高 得房率"、"高赠送面积"为核心特质的"好房子"风潮，经历多半年之后，似乎走到了一个微妙时刻。 据我们了解，多地的规划审批口径确实在收紧。 今年8月中旬，广州市也出手规范好房子规划设计中的变相增加使用面积行为，通过对功能进行限制， 40米以上楼层的花池禁止改造为实用空间，结构柱被纳入面积核算，建筑内部的天井也将进一步标准化 等，套内面积的"野蛮增长"自此或将告一段落。 无论是成都广州，还是北京，规划审批或验收口径的"收紧"，主要目的还是"规范"市场行为。一方面， 市场中肆意"偷面积"、增加室内使用空间的做法，确实在一定程度上局部扰乱了正常市场秩序。另一方 面，中央做出"好房子"重要决策的初衷与本意，是全方位提升住房规划设计水平、建筑施工质量、物业 服务水准，如果任由市场将其异化为仅仅增加使用面积，就会"把好经念歪"，严重背离中央决策的初 衷。 无论从哪个层面上考量，都到了对"好房子"政策执行落实过程中出现的偏差、问题加以规范的时刻。在 此过程中，需 ...

《 磨底未竟，转折已萌——房地产行业2025年中期投资策略 》 我们推演房地产发展新模式可能包括：好房子、人房地钱、房屋全生命周期管理、现房销售制度等，并我们认为，房地产发展新模式的 政策本意在于推动房地产行业从金融业回归制造业。 图表：房地产新发展模式推演 资料来源：政府官网，申万宏源研究 好房子是政策导向，当前房地产处于好房子存量少+改需正值释放阶段，供给端估算目前我国城镇住宅存量中高品质住宅渗透率仅为 24%，而需求端估算2022-20年改需占比高达44%，好房子也是行业内生需求、并且预示着广大空间。 图表：中国好房子的供需分析 资料来源： Wind 、七普、统计局、申万宏源研究 我们认为，市场对于好房子的追求也在从硬件层面逐步扩展到软件层面，好房子定义应为：物理建筑->功能居住->精神寄托，预计好房 子政策也将推动房企从金融业回归制造业。 图表：广义的好房子定义 来自报告 资料来源：住建部、申万宏源研究 以美国经验为鉴，在房地产危机之后，行业经历供给改革，企业进行模式优化，产品力及库存管理能力强的优质房企穿越周期。 图表：房地产危机前后美国四大房企的杜邦分析 资料来源： Wind 、申万宏源研究 展望 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][30]. Core Insights - The real estate market is currently experiencing a trend of destocking, with new housing market conditions still under pressure. The central government's recent statements indicate a shift towards more robust measures to stabilize the market [4][30]. - The report highlights the importance of product strength and inventory management capabilities in identifying quality real estate companies for investment [4][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data - New housing transaction volume in 34 key cities increased by 19.9% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 24.5% increase, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 24.7% decrease [5][8]. - In July, the total transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities was 687.5 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6% [8][9]. - The inventory of residential properties in 15 cities increased by 0.2% week-on-week, with a corresponding average monthly de-stocking period of 20 months [21][22]. 2. Industry Policies and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3% for one year and 3.5% for five years in July [30][31]. - Various local governments have introduced policies to stimulate the housing market, including the cancellation of housing sales restrictions and adjustments to housing provident fund loan rules [30][31]. - The report notes that the fiscal revenue from property taxes increased by 12% year-on-year, while land appreciation tax revenue decreased by 17.6% [30][31]. 3. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies are actively engaging in financing activities, with notable issuances including China Merchants Shekou's bond issuance of 800 million yuan at a 1.70% interest rate [36][37]. - The report mentions that Beike-W repurchased approximately 2.49 million shares for about 16 million USD during the week [38].

Core Insights - The Beijing real estate market is experiencing a significant recovery in the first half of 2025, driven by favorable policies and an increase in new project launches [1][3][10] - The number of new residential projects obtaining pre-sale permits has increased by 21.88% year-on-year, with a total of 39 projects approved [3][4] - The market is seeing a notable shift towards improvement-type housing, with transactions in the 10 million to 20 million yuan price range surging by nearly 90% [1][7] Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, Beijing's new home sales reached 18,563 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.89%, with a total transaction value of 145.99 billion yuan, up 29.7% [7] - The proportion of improvement-type demand has risen to 47%, with units over 120 square meters accounting for over 30% of transactions for the first time [7][8] - The supply of new homes in districts like Haidian, Chaoyang, and Fengtai has been robust, with Haidian alone offering 4,035 units [3][10] Group 2: Policy Impact - The "Good House" policy has enhanced the quality standards of new homes, contributing to market vitality and a more diverse housing product line [10][11] - The government has prioritized land supply near transportation hubs and employment centers, which has positively influenced the market [10][11] - Continuous policy support is expected to further stimulate sales and improve the overall market environment [11] Group 3: Developer Strategies - Developers are focusing on optimizing living spaces and enhancing community amenities to meet the needs of improvement-type buyers [8][11] - The increase in pre-sale permits is linked to a rise in the proportion of completed homes, which has created a supply peak in the new home market [4][5] - Developers are encouraged to innovate and enhance product offerings to attract buyers and achieve strong sales performance [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][36]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 50.1% week-on-week [2][3]. - The report anticipates further policy support to stabilize the real estate market, with potential measures including mortgage rate cuts and increased supply of quality housing [2][36]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 1.983 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 50.1% [2][3]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in July decreased by 16.0%, with first and second-tier cities down by 15.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 23.4% [4][11]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home sales in 13 key cities reached 1.078 million square meters, a week-on-week decline of 6.6% [11]. - Year-to-date, second-hand home sales have increased by 8.8% compared to the previous year [11]. Inventory and Supply - In 15 cities, 880,000 square meters of new homes were launched, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.71, indicating ongoing inventory reduction [20][21]. - The average months of inventory for new homes is 19.6 months, reflecting a slight increase [20]. Policy and News Tracking - The National Development and Reform Commission is increasing investment in key areas of new urbanization, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate the housing market [30][31]. - Local governments are implementing targeted policies, such as restrictions on the registration of small property rights houses in Guangdong and new housing subsidy programs in Wuxi [30][31]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies are actively engaging in financing and capital market operations, with notable activities including Shenzhen Tianjian Group's issuance of medium-term notes worth 650 million yuan [36]. - Companies like Beike-W are also engaging in share buybacks, indicating confidence in their market position [36]. Sector Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the market, with the SW Real Estate Index rising by 6.12% compared to a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 Index [2][36]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for major A-share real estate companies for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 14.7 and 13.1 times, respectively [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [5] Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate market is still in a destocking trend, with new housing market conditions remaining challenging despite some policy support aimed at stabilizing expectations and promoting recovery [4][32] - The report highlights the importance of strong product capability and inventory management in identifying quality real estate companies for investment [5] Summary by Sections Industry Data - New housing transaction volume in 34 key cities decreased by 0.3% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 2% increase while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 38% decline [6] - In July, the cumulative transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities dropped by 25% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities also down by 25% [9][10] - The inventory of new homes in 15 cities decreased by 1% week-on-week, with a current available area of 88.85 million square meters [23] Policy and News Tracking - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the need for multi-faceted approaches to stabilize expectations and promote recovery in the real estate market [32][33] - Local policies include the expansion of housing provident fund loans in Nanjing and new policies in Hainan and Guangzhou to facilitate housing loans [32][33] Company Dynamics - Vanke has applied for a loan of up to 6.249 billion yuan from Shenzhen Metro Group, marking the sixth loan transaction this year [5] - Poly Developments reported sales of 29 billion yuan, down 31% year-on-year, while China Overseas Development reported 29.7 billion yuan, down 36% [5] - The report recommends focusing on quality real estate companies with strong product capabilities and inventory management, including companies like China Overseas Development and Poly Developments [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent positive trends in the real estate markets of major Chinese cities, particularly focusing on the impact of government policies aimed at stabilizing and revitalizing the housing market. The combination of reduced purchasing restrictions, lower mortgage interest burdens, and the introduction of quality housing standards has led to increased activity in the real estate sector, especially in first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [1]. Beijing Real Estate Market - In Beijing, the overall real estate market has remained active in the first half of the year, with new housing transactions reaching 18,085 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.7% [6]. - The average transaction price for new homes in Beijing has risen to 7.8 million yuan, showing significant growth compared to the previous year [5]. - The market is characterized by a clear regional differentiation, with high demand for quality projects in prime locations, particularly in Haidian District, while areas like Fangshan see lower interest and price adjustments [7][8]. Shanghai Real Estate Market - Shanghai's real estate market has shown robust performance, with a 30% year-on-year increase in total housing transactions in the first five months, totaling 1,094 million square meters [12]. - New housing transactions in Shanghai increased by 9% year-on-year, with prices rising by 5.9% in May [12]. - The luxury segment has seen strong demand, with several high-end projects selling out quickly, indicating a healthy appetite for premium properties [12][13]. Guangzhou Real Estate Market - In Guangzhou, the real estate market has experienced a rebound in transaction volume, with a 12.98% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transactions, totaling 56,613 units in the first half of the year [16][17]. - The market is primarily driven by first-time homebuyers, with a significant portion of transactions occurring in the lower price range, particularly properties priced below 300 million yuan [17]. - The removal of purchase restrictions has contributed to increased interest from external buyers, further stimulating the market [16]. Shenzhen Real Estate Market - Shenzhen's real estate market has also performed well, with a 49.6% year-on-year increase in total transactions, reaching approximately 64,000 units [20]. - The market is characterized by a strong presence of first-time buyers, with nearly two-thirds of purchasers being new entrants [19]. - The demand for high-quality housing has led to a competitive environment, with many projects experiencing rapid sales, while lower-quality offerings face challenges [20][21]. Market Outlook - Analysts expect that the real estate markets in these major cities will continue to stabilize, with potential for further policy support to enhance buyer confidence and stimulate demand [10][22]. - The anticipated seasonal uptick in transactions during the traditional peak periods, combined with ongoing policy adjustments, is likely to sustain market activity in the latter half of the year [22].

Group 1 - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with new home prices in Hangzhou leading the way with a 0.8% month-on-month increase in May, while Shanghai saw a 0.7% increase [2][3] - The average price of new residential properties in Hangzhou has surpassed 10,000 yuan per square meter, indicating a shift towards higher quality housing as part of the "good housing" policy [2] - In May, the average transaction price of new homes in Hangzhou was 34,990 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 3% month-on-month increase, while the total sales area decreased by 4% [3][4] Group 2 - The upcoming project "Jinshang Wanxiangfu" in Hangzhou has a selling price of 65,600 yuan per square meter, significantly higher than previous projects in the area, indicating a trend of rising prices [3] - The average price of new homes in the Xiaoshan District of Hangzhou surged by 37% week-on-week, reaching 37,600 yuan per square meter [4] - The real estate market in Shanghai has been particularly strong, with new home prices increasing by 5.9% year-on-year in May, the highest in the country [9][12] Group 3 - High-end properties in Shanghai have driven market performance, with several luxury projects achieving record sales, including "Green Town Chaoming Dongfang" which sold 69.88 billion yuan worth of units in a single day [12] - In May, Shanghai's new home transaction area increased by 16.5% month-on-month, with a notable rise in the average price to 90,691 yuan per square meter, marking a historical high [13] - The market for luxury homes priced over 30 million yuan in Shanghai is expected to exceed 1,000 billion yuan in sales this year, with a significant number of transactions already recorded [14][15]

Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with new home prices in major cities experiencing a narrowing decline year-on-year, although month-on-month prices are still decreasing [1][2] - Certain hot cities, such as Hangzhou and Shanghai, are witnessing a continuous rise in new home prices, indicating a divergence in market performance [1][2] Market Performance - In May, the total sales area of new residential properties reached 70.53 million square meters, with sales revenue of 705.6 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10% and 13% respectively [2] - The inventory of unsold residential properties decreased by 7.15 million square meters at the end of May, marking three consecutive months of decline [2] City-Specific Trends - Hangzhou led the new home price increases with a month-on-month rise of 0.8%, while Shanghai followed closely with a 0.7% increase [1][13] - In May, the average price of new homes in Hangzhou surpassed 10,000 yuan per square meter, indicating a recovery in high-quality housing demand [1][2] Policy and Market Outlook - The State Council emphasized the need for policy optimization to stabilize expectations and activate demand in the real estate market [2] - Analysts suggest that the market will continue to see a split, with core cities showing resilience while lower-tier cities may struggle [11][17] Regional Highlights - In Shanghai, the new home price increased by 5.9% year-on-year, driven by the launch of high-end properties [13][15] - South China's Nanning has seen a consistent rise in new home prices for six consecutive months, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in May [18][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][32]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 70% week-on-week and 78% year-on-year in June [4][5][8]. - The report emphasizes the need for increased policy support to stabilize the market, with expectations for measures such as mortgage rate cuts and enhanced housing supply [4][32]. - The issuance of special bonds for the acquisition of existing homes in Zhejiang Province is noted as a key policy development [4][32]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 838,000 square meters last week, reflecting a 70.3% decrease compared to the previous week [5]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in June are down 78%, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 77% decline [8][9]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - Second-hand home sales in 13 key cities decreased by 29.1% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 20% in June [13]. - Cumulative sales for the year show a 12.1% increase compared to the previous year [13]. New Home Inventory - In 15 key cities, 500,000 square meters of new homes were launched last week, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 1.69 [23]. - The total available residential area in these cities is 88.94 million square meters, showing a 0.4% decrease week-on-week [23]. Policy and News Tracking Real Estate Sector - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes that building "good houses" does not equate to building "large" or "expensive" houses [32]. - The issuance of special bonds in Zhejiang for the acquisition of existing homes is highlighted, with a total issuance of 55.3 billion yuan [32][34]. Property Management Sector - Beijing has launched a three-year action plan to enhance property management services, focusing on improving service quality and meeting resident needs [38].