晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观支撑持续 铝价高位运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝延续偏强运行。宏观上美元走弱，美联储预计将在 1 月 27-28 日会议上维持利率不变，不过市场仍预计今年晚些时候将再降息两 次。 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 ...

责任编辑：王许宁 大华继显分析师在报告中指出，印尼央行在货币政策制定上面临两难困境。今年由于高度扩张性的财政 和货币政策，通胀压力可能逐步积聚。然而，即将到来的收获季节及政府加强的价格管控或将在一定程 度上缓解这些压力。 由于通胀预计将维持在目标区间内，央行为支撑经济增长仍存在进一步降息的空间。但市场对印尼盾贬 值的担忧可能制约其货币宽松周期。大华继显指出，2025年至今印尼盾是亚洲新兴市场中兑美元表现第 二差的货币。 由于通胀预计将维持在目标区间内，央行为支撑经济增长仍存在进一步降息的空间。但市场对印尼盾贬 值的担忧可能制约其货币宽松周期。大华继显指出，2025年至今印尼盾是亚洲新兴市场中兑美元表现第 二差的货币。 责任编辑：王许宁 大华继显分析师在报告中指出，印尼央行在货币政策制定上面临两难困境。今年由于高度扩张性的财政 和货币政策，通胀压力可能逐步积聚。然而，即将到来的收获季节及政府加强的价格管控或将在一定程 度上缓解这些压力。 ...

今日（12月24日）早盘，有色金属板块延续强势上攻态势，同标的指数规模最大的有色ETF华宝（159876）场内涨幅盘中上探1.25%，现涨 0.52%，拉长时间来看，该ETF自本轮低点（4月8日）以来，累计上涨91.08%。 值得关注的是，昨日有色ETF华宝（159876）放量突破ETF上市以来的高点，或为资金买点信号！截至发稿，该ETF获资金实时净申购300万 份。 数据来源：中证指数公司、沪深交易所等，统计区间：2025.4.8-2025.12.23。注：中证有色金属指数近5个完整年度的涨跌幅为： 2020年， 35.84%；2021年，35.89%；2022年，-19.22%；2023年，-10.43%；2024年，2.96%，指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整，其回测历 史业绩不预示指数未来表现。 政策面上，有色金属行业"反内卷"迎来政策"强风口"。工信部等八部门联合印发的《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案(2025-2026年)》，提出 2025~2026年，有色金属行业增加值年均增长5%左右，10种有色金属产量年均增长1.5%左右，铜、铝、锂等国内资源开发取得积极进展；对稀 土、稀有金属等战略金属 ...

最近有朋友问我，眼看着美联储进入宽松周期，特朗普整天逼着美联储加速降息，美联储也停止缩表，很显然，这是一个货币宽松、资产价格上行的经济周 期，但为什么这次感觉在经济上升的宽松周期赚钱还是很难？ 打工做生意难不难我不谈，但股市赚钱其实挺简单。这个世界到处都需要双手劳作和脚踏实地，唯有股市只需要在家点点鼠标，无非废点脑细胞，多消耗几 杯咖啡而已。 之所以你觉得股市赚钱难，还是因为两个问题：一是没看清自己，二是没看清市场。看清自己是为了选择适合自己的投资方式，都是说自己有耐心，你耐心 2小时，他耐心2年，结果能一样吗？ 若耐心不足，建议采用随波逐流的趋势投资模式，总结为一句话，那就是"谁赢跟谁走"，短线交易不需要去讨论和预测经济，你要做的就是顺势而为，事实 上，绝大多数人适合的是这条路，但这条路有个难点，就是切忌优柔寡断，得取舍，认错。 其二，是环境在逼迫你买股票，当你看到你的邻居朋友，他们纸面富贵节节攀升，每天都在吹嘘自己如何如何能干，投资人将周期赋予的纸面财富当做自己 能力，飘飘然，此时，身在这样的环境，你很难抵御住环境给你的诱惑。 若耐心很足，建议用价值投资的模式。就是芒格说的，股票投资是"用常识赚钱"。 常 ...

交易者往往是孤独的，都想在这条路上走下去，走到内心向往的彼岸。 有人通过寻找导师，有人应用EA，也有人自学成才，你我都是朝圣的人，不用遗憾，我们都在朝圣的路上。 所有高端的智慧，一切世俗的故事，其实都源于一处，说的都是一件事。就像你的梦，我的梦。 黄金只是载体，手段只是工具，初衷都没变，登上华山去看北峰的日出，这是所有登山者的梦，所谓登顶都是妄言，看谁更虔诚而已。 今天，黄金可以先考虑以4130-35的区域做多，延续向上反弹的行情，而抵达4180-85的范围内再去空，此次反弹看似强势直接形成单边可能性不高。 交易是一场修行，市场就是你的道场，经历和时间不会让我们成长，只有反思与总结才会慢慢看清不足的自己，一点点往好的方向努力，登顶终将是我们 一起奔赴的远方。 说一下黄金： 首先，周一金价没有延续下跌，4000美元下面始终有一股神秘的力量守护，几次跌到4000美元之下就被快速拉起，说明牛没有丢，大资金在4000美元以下 重新构建仓位。 另外，美联储12月降息或推迟，成为争论的焦点，这些只是表象，货币宽松周期没有结束只是刚开始，就业市场变化和通胀表现来看，12月降息可能性依 旧不低。 从K线结构来看，仍然处于大级 ...

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean won has been depreciating against the US dollar, nearing its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, following the announcement of 24-hour trading for the won starting next year, increasing pressure on the Bank of Korea to intervene in the foreign exchange market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The won has declined by 6% over the past three months, the largest drop among major currencies in the Asia-Pacific region, influenced by ongoing capital outflows from the stock market and increased overseas investments by residents [2]. - The won's exchange rate against the dollar recently approached 1487.45, just 1% shy of its historical high, marking the lowest level since March 2009 [1][2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the 24-hour trading initiative, the Korean stock index fell by 2.3%, and the won also depreciated, reaching its lowest level since mid-May [3]. - Despite the potential for increased global liquidity for the won with the upcoming market liberalization, immediate foreign capital inflows are not expected [3]. Group 3: Central Bank's Position - The Bank of Korea is under scrutiny regarding potential foreign exchange interventions, with the governor indicating a willingness to act if excessive volatility is observed, while downplaying the current depreciation trend [4]. - The economic environment is complex for the Bank of Korea, as the IMF forecasts a mere 0.9% growth for the South Korean economy this year, the lowest among major Asian economies, complicating the decision to lower interest rates to support economic recovery [4]. Group 4: Bond Market Pressure - South Korean bonds are also facing pressure, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to a 16-month high, as the market increasingly bets that the current monetary easing cycle is coming to an end [5]. - There are expectations that the Bank of Korea may require national pension institutions to sell dollars as a strategy to support the won, a tactic previously employed in late 2022 and early 2023 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean won has depreciated significantly against the US dollar, reaching its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, raising concerns about potential intervention by the Bank of Korea [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The South Korean won has fallen 6% over the past three months, making it the worst-performing currency in the Asia-Pacific region [3]. - The USD/KRW exchange rate is nearing the historical high of 1487.45, with the won recently trading at 1468.77 [1][3]. - The recent announcement of 24-hour trading for the won starting next year has added pressure to its value [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Foreign investors have sold a net $5.2 billion worth of South Korean stocks this month, despite the KOSPI index reaching historical highs [3]. - The announcement of the 24-hour trading policy did not generate positive market sentiment, as the KOSPI index fell by 2.3% on the day of the announcement [3]. Group 3: Central Bank's Position - The Bank of Korea is under pressure to intervene in the foreign exchange market, with its governor indicating a willingness to act if excessive volatility is observed [4]. - The central bank's cautious stance contrasts with other Asian economies that have recently cut interest rates to support their currencies [5]. Group 4: Economic Context - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected South Korea's economic growth at only 0.9% this year, the lowest among major Asian economies [5]. - The yield on 10-year South Korean government bonds has risen to a 16-month high, indicating market expectations of an end to the current monetary easing cycle [5]. Group 5: Potential Strategies - Market participants speculate that one feasible strategy for the Bank of Korea to support the won could involve the national pension fund selling US dollars, a tactic previously employed [6]. - The National Pension Service of Korea has engaged in significant transactions to rebalance its portfolio, including selling dollars to purchase domestic stocks [6].

Core Insights - South Korea's consumer inflation accelerated in October, driven by the depreciation of the won, which increased energy and food costs, reinforcing the central bank's rationale for extending the pause in its monetary easing cycle [1][5][6] Inflation Data - October consumer prices rose by 2.4% year-on-year, up from 2.1% in September, surpassing economists' median forecast of 2.2%, marking the fastest growth since July 2024 [1][4] - Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy items, increased from 2% in September to 2.2% in October, with both overall and core inflation rates currently above the Bank of Korea's 2% target [1][5] Currency Impact - The won depreciated nearly 1.9% against the dollar in October, reaching its weakest level since March, which contributed to rising import prices for energy and food [6] - The weakening of the won has limited the central bank's options for further monetary easing, as it faces pressures from rising housing prices in Seoul [5][6] Economic Context - The Bank of Korea has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.5% during its last three meetings, amid concerns over asset bubbles and financial stability related to household debt [5][6] - Economists are divided on whether the central bank will cut rates in its final policy meeting of the year on November 27, as they assess the stability of housing prices in the capital region [6][7] Recent Economic Performance - The third quarter saw stronger-than-expected economic growth, supported by resilient exports and domestic spending, with GDP growing by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the forecast of 1% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating optimism about future opportunities despite current challenges [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a transition from the old development model in the real estate sector to new opportunities, particularly through the "Good House" policy, which is expected to create new products, pricing strategies, and business models [4][5]. - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector remains a crucial pillar of the national economy, and stabilizing the sector is essential for overall economic stability [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Revenue and Profit Trends - In Q1-Q3 2025, the overall revenue of the real estate sector decreased by 10.4% year-on-year, with a notable decline in first-tier cities at 15.4% [12][13]. - The net profit for the sector saw a significant drop of 125.1% year-on-year, with first-tier companies experiencing a 144.1% decline [13][16]. 2. Margins and Costs - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was reported at 14.9%, a slight increase from the previous year, with third-tier companies leading at 18.4% [18][19]. - The net margin was negative at -6.6%, although the decline was less severe compared to the previous year, with third-tier companies showing the best performance at -1.1% [22][23]. - The overall expense ratio increased to 11.7%, with first-tier companies maintaining the lowest ratio at 8.2% [26]. 3. Debt and Liquidity - The overall debt-to-asset ratio for the sector was 73.7%, slightly down from the previous year, with first-tier companies at 71.8% [37][38]. - The net debt ratio rose to 89.4%, indicating increased leverage across all tiers of companies [47]. - The cash-to-short-term debt ratio was reported at 0.9, reflecting a slight decline, with first-tier companies at 0.9 and second-tier at 0.6 [54]. 4. Sales and Pre-sales - Sales cash inflow for Q1-Q3 2025 decreased by 15.5% year-on-year, although the decline rate has narrowed [58]. - The pre-sales lock-in rate fell to 0.53, indicating a continued downward trend, with second-tier companies performing better at 0.73 [61]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality companies under the "Good House" initiative, including Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, and China Resources Land [4][5]. - It also suggests looking into undervalued commercial real estate firms such as Xincheng Holdings and China Merchants Shekou [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant shift in global capital markets, indicating the beginning of a new monetary easing cycle following the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut [1][2][3] - From the end of 2021 to April 2025, savings deposits in China increased from 102.5 trillion yuan to 159.08 trillion yuan, significantly outpacing other financial products despite a drop in three-year deposit rates from 2.75% to 1.25% [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points signals a broader trend, with expectations of at least another 50 basis points of cuts within the year due to rising employment market risks and economic pressures [1][2] Group 2 - There is a notable increase in M1 money supply, rising from 1.5% to 6.0% since April, indicating that previously stagnant deposits are being mobilized into the market [5] - Investment is flowing into technology sectors such as AI and robotics, with Guangdong province reporting a 17.5% year-on-year increase in information transmission, software, and IT investments from January to August [6] - The stock market is experiencing a resurgence, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3,800 points and record trading volumes, while the real estate market is seeing increased activity, particularly in core assets [6]