美国期货与期权市场的交易员正大举押注美联储将持续降息至明年，而非此前预期的转为加息。与担保 隔夜融资利率（SOFR）挂钩的期货价差出现深度倒挂，显示市场正在定价一个更为持久的货币宽松周 期。关于人工智能（AI）导致失业的辩论改变了市场预期。2月24日，美联储理事莉萨·库克（Lisa Cook）警告，美联储可能无法有效对抗由AI普及引发的失业率上升。市场认为，除了数据中心建设及 能源需求外，AI本质上具有通缩效应，这促使长期美债出现反弹。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with its center of gravity moving downward and a weak operation [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short - term, but there are risks at high prices [1][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel during the Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January to around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month [2] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started to shut down on January 5, most will shut down around mid - January, and some individual mills will shut down after January 20, with a daily impact on production of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center has been moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3] Aluminum - As of January 14, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $67.33/ton, a decrease of $0.09/ton from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price and CIF average price were flat compared with the previous trading day [3] - The tight supply of domestic bauxite has eased, and alumina plants' bauxite inventories have continued to accumulate. With the pressure on the alumina spot price, the intended transaction price of domestic bauxite for alumina plants has continued to decline. Imported bauxite's intended transaction price has also declined, and the market is lightly traded [3] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.2 percentage points to 60.1%. The operating rates of various sectors of aluminum processing are differentiated, showing a pattern of "eased supply - side disturbances and intensified demand - side suppression". High aluminum prices have restricted downstream consumption and the recovery of the industry operating rate [3] - As of January 12, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 730,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons from the previous Monday [3] - The macro performance is strong. Driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and domestic monetary easing and consumption policies, aluminum prices remain high. However, it is in the domestic off - season, and inventories are gradually accumulating [4]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating provided for the industry in the report Group 2: Core Views - The price center of finished products will move down and run weakly, with an expected trend of oscillating consolidation [1][3] - Aluminum prices will remain high in the short - term, with an expected short - term strong performance, but high - price risks should be watched out for [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Category Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons [2] - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, with the price hitting a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - Macroscopically, the US dollar is weakening. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the January 27 - 28 meeting, but the market still expects two more rate cuts later this year [2] - For domestic mines, the supply shortage has eased, alumina plants' bauxite inventories are accumulating, and the intended purchase price is falling, with further downward space expected [3] - For imported mines, the intended transaction price has declined, the market is quiet, and alumina plants' procurement plans are cautious [3] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose 0.2 percentage points to 60.1%. The overall pattern is "supply - side disturbances ease, demand - side suppression intensifies", and high aluminum prices suppress consumption and operating rate recovery [3] - On January 12, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 730,000 tons, a 46,000 - ton increase from the previous Monday [3] - The macro - performance is strong. The logic of the Fed's interest - rate cut - driven monetary easing cycle remains unchanged. Domestic monetary easing and consumption policies have boosted market sentiment and demand expectations, keeping aluminum prices high [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the dilemma faced by the Bank of Indonesia in monetary policy formulation due to high expansionary fiscal and monetary policies leading to potential inflationary pressures, which may be alleviated by the upcoming harvest season and strengthened government price controls [1][1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Challenges - The Bank of Indonesia is expected to have room for further interest rate cuts to support economic growth, as inflation is projected to remain within the target range [1][1]. - Concerns over the depreciation of the Indonesian Rupiah may limit the central bank's ability to pursue a monetary easing cycle [1][1]. Group 2: Currency Performance - Since 2025, the Indonesian Rupiah has been the second worst-performing currency against the US dollar among emerging markets in Asia [1][1].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant increases in various metal prices and a notable performance of the Huabao ETF (159876) since its low point in April 2023, indicating potential investment opportunities [1][6][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao ETF (159876) has seen a cumulative increase of 91.08% since its low on April 8, 2023, with a recent intraday gain of 1.25% [1]. - The ETF has broken through its historical high since its listing, suggesting a potential buying signal, with a net subscription of 3 million units reported [1]. - The non-ferrous metals index has shown varied annual performance, with a notable decline in 2022 and 2023, but a positive outlook for 2024 [3]. Group 2: Key Stocks Performance - Major stocks in the sector include Zhongkuang Resources, which rose by 6.20%, and Xinye Silver Tin, which increased by 5.76% [4]. - Other notable performers include Yongxing Materials and Huayou Cobalt, both rising over 3% [3][4]. - The overall market capitalization and trading volume of these stocks indicate robust investor interest and activity [4]. Group 3: Price Trends and Influencing Factors - Precious metals like gold and silver have reached historical highs, with platinum and copper also hitting significant price milestones [6][7]. - The ongoing global monetary easing and strategic importance of non-ferrous metals are expected to drive prices higher, with forecasts suggesting a bullish trend in the coming years [7][8]. - The Chinese government's policy initiatives aim to stabilize and grow the non-ferrous metals industry, targeting an average annual growth of 5% in industry value added from 2025 to 2026 [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the non-ferrous metals sector is entering a new cycle driven by supply-demand balance, with prices likely to continue rising [8]. - The Huabao ETF is positioned to provide diversified exposure across various metals, making it a suitable option for investors looking to capitalize on the sector's growth [9].

Group 1 - The current economic environment is characterized by monetary easing, which is expected to drive asset prices up, yet making profits in this cycle remains challenging for investors [1][3] - Investors face pressure to buy stocks during this easing phase due to economic conditions, social influences, and pressures from investors or funds [3][5] - Value investors should focus on the ability of companies to generate sustainable dividends rather than succumbing to external pressures to invest [3][5] Group 2 - Recent data from the statistics bureau indicates a rise in CPI while PPI continues to decline, suggesting that industrial profits may not be favorable, potentially leading to more favorable policies [5] - The stock of Moer Thread has surged, and investors are advised to take profits and reduce focus on this stock despite its potential for further gains [5] - The cancellation of the merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang is not seen as significant, with attention shifting to the recovery of H200 imports and concerns over AI market bubbles [5][6] Group 3 - Silver prices have surged, typically indicating institutional preparations for selling, with long-term benefits expected from dollar depreciation [6] - Some investment banks are optimistic about the real estate market, with companies like Vanke and Huaxia Happiness seeing significant stock price increases [6] - Historical comparisons of real estate market recoveries in the US and Japan suggest a prolonged recovery period for the Chinese real estate sector, indicating potential challenges ahead [6]

Group 1 - The price of gold has shown resilience, with a mysterious force supporting it below $4000, indicating that large funds are rebuilding positions in this range [3] - The discussion around the Federal Reserve potentially delaying interest rate cuts in December is a focal point, suggesting that the monetary easing cycle is just beginning [3] - The current K-line structure indicates a large-scale triangular oscillation, with gold prices recently bouncing back to $4100, raising questions about whether it will continue to rise or reverse [5] Group 2 - The market sentiment remains bullish on gold, with a strong belief in the long-term upward trend, although caution is advised regarding short-term fluctuations [5] - A trading strategy is suggested, recommending to consider buying in the $4130-35 range and potentially selling in the $4180-85 range, indicating a cautious approach to the current market dynamics [5]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean won has been depreciating against the US dollar, nearing its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, following the announcement of 24-hour trading for the won starting next year, increasing pressure on the Bank of Korea to intervene in the foreign exchange market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The won has declined by 6% over the past three months, the largest drop among major currencies in the Asia-Pacific region, influenced by ongoing capital outflows from the stock market and increased overseas investments by residents [2]. - The won's exchange rate against the dollar recently approached 1487.45, just 1% shy of its historical high, marking the lowest level since March 2009 [1][2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the 24-hour trading initiative, the Korean stock index fell by 2.3%, and the won also depreciated, reaching its lowest level since mid-May [3]. - Despite the potential for increased global liquidity for the won with the upcoming market liberalization, immediate foreign capital inflows are not expected [3]. Group 3: Central Bank's Position - The Bank of Korea is under scrutiny regarding potential foreign exchange interventions, with the governor indicating a willingness to act if excessive volatility is observed, while downplaying the current depreciation trend [4]. - The economic environment is complex for the Bank of Korea, as the IMF forecasts a mere 0.9% growth for the South Korean economy this year, the lowest among major Asian economies, complicating the decision to lower interest rates to support economic recovery [4]. Group 4: Bond Market Pressure - South Korean bonds are also facing pressure, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to a 16-month high, as the market increasingly bets that the current monetary easing cycle is coming to an end [5]. - There are expectations that the Bank of Korea may require national pension institutions to sell dollars as a strategy to support the won, a tactic previously employed in late 2022 and early 2023 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean won has depreciated significantly against the US dollar, reaching its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, raising concerns about potential intervention by the Bank of Korea [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The South Korean won has fallen 6% over the past three months, making it the worst-performing currency in the Asia-Pacific region [3]. - The USD/KRW exchange rate is nearing the historical high of 1487.45, with the won recently trading at 1468.77 [1][3]. - The recent announcement of 24-hour trading for the won starting next year has added pressure to its value [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Foreign investors have sold a net $5.2 billion worth of South Korean stocks this month, despite the KOSPI index reaching historical highs [3]. - The announcement of the 24-hour trading policy did not generate positive market sentiment, as the KOSPI index fell by 2.3% on the day of the announcement [3]. Group 3: Central Bank's Position - The Bank of Korea is under pressure to intervene in the foreign exchange market, with its governor indicating a willingness to act if excessive volatility is observed [4]. - The central bank's cautious stance contrasts with other Asian economies that have recently cut interest rates to support their currencies [5]. Group 4: Economic Context - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected South Korea's economic growth at only 0.9% this year, the lowest among major Asian economies [5]. - The yield on 10-year South Korean government bonds has risen to a 16-month high, indicating market expectations of an end to the current monetary easing cycle [5]. Group 5: Potential Strategies - Market participants speculate that one feasible strategy for the Bank of Korea to support the won could involve the national pension fund selling US dollars, a tactic previously employed [6]. - The National Pension Service of Korea has engaged in significant transactions to rebalance its portfolio, including selling dollars to purchase domestic stocks [6].

Core Insights - South Korea's consumer inflation accelerated in October, driven by the depreciation of the won, which increased energy and food costs, reinforcing the central bank's rationale for extending the pause in its monetary easing cycle [1][5][6] Inflation Data - October consumer prices rose by 2.4% year-on-year, up from 2.1% in September, surpassing economists' median forecast of 2.2%, marking the fastest growth since July 2024 [1][4] - Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy items, increased from 2% in September to 2.2% in October, with both overall and core inflation rates currently above the Bank of Korea's 2% target [1][5] Currency Impact - The won depreciated nearly 1.9% against the dollar in October, reaching its weakest level since March, which contributed to rising import prices for energy and food [6] - The weakening of the won has limited the central bank's options for further monetary easing, as it faces pressures from rising housing prices in Seoul [5][6] Economic Context - The Bank of Korea has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.5% during its last three meetings, amid concerns over asset bubbles and financial stability related to household debt [5][6] - Economists are divided on whether the central bank will cut rates in its final policy meeting of the year on November 27, as they assess the stability of housing prices in the capital region [6][7] Recent Economic Performance - The third quarter saw stronger-than-expected economic growth, supported by resilient exports and domestic spending, with GDP growing by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the forecast of 1% [7]