连着几天喝酒，不是酒量不行了，是岁月不饶人，三十岁之前嗨到凌晨，第二天元气满满，现在两天缓不过来。 不过，这只是一个开始，一群人有共同的爱好，相同的愿景，一起走向同一个方向，这个市场永远是明星多寿星少，吸引人留不住人，而我要做的就是给 每一个因为信任聚到一起的人正确的引导和理念，修炼自己迎接这一轮数百年一遇的大牛市。 周一，黄金的上涨远超预期，这一次调整从3700到3610美元附近就结束了，利率决议落地后市场象征性修正，降息只是一个开始，后续美联储会持续进入 货币宽松周期。 另外，这一轮上涨过后，重点在技术上关注起涨点位置，昨晚直播时强调支撑在3710美元附近，亚盘上涨欧盘延续，美盘前走回踩确认，而这一轮的上涨 一定要注意临近国庆，假期几次都是黄金市场空杀多。 今天，我认为依托3710美元作为防守点回踩后做多，时间点放在欧美盘，向上关注3750-55，破位后关注3770美元。具体位置VIP内部通知。 提示：重仓，锁仓，不止损者切勿借鉴，一家之言！ 没有应酬，更没有为了生意，兄弟朋友间忙完直播后，找个安静的小馆子，喝点小酒，聊些工作，或许这就是男人间舒服的状态。 这几个月隔三差五收到用户寄来的礼物，更有人不远千 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant underperformance of the August non-farm payroll data, which recorded only 22,000 new jobs compared to the expected 75,000, raising concerns about the economic outlook [1][4] - The release of this data is particularly notable as it is the first non-farm report published after the dismissal of the previous Bureau of Labor Statistics director by the Trump administration, which has led to skepticism regarding data reliability [2] - The August data shows a decline of 15,000 federal government jobs, while the private sector added 38,000 jobs, indicating a mixed employment landscape that contrasts with Trump's manufacturing policy goals [4] Group 2 - The weak employment data has intensified fears of an economic recession, leading to a surge in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 98% probability of a 25 basis point cut in mid-September [4] - Following the release of the non-farm data, Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chair Powell for not acting sooner on interest rate cuts, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [6] - The broad money supply (M2) in the U.S. has also been increasing, surpassing $22 trillion in June 2025, suggesting a dual easing environment that could stimulate economic activity [6][7] Group 3 - Investors are facing challenges to the traditional "cash is king" belief, as inflation may erode the purchasing power of cash holders, while those with ample funds may find opportunities to convert cash into appreciating assets [8] - The current monetary easing cycle is accompanied by risks of asset price bubbles, necessitating a careful balance between opportunities and risks for investors [9] - Market participants are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's upcoming September meeting for potential interest rate cuts and the implications of subsequent economic data [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea's Governor Lee Chang-yong indicated that while the South Korean economy showed signs of recovery in Q2, it still faces significant uncertainty due to the current trade environment [1] Economic Performance - The South Korean economy rebounded in the second quarter, supported by additional budget measures [1] - Economic momentum is expected to continue in the second half of the year due to this fiscal support [1] Financial Stability Risks - Rising overdue repayment rates among small and medium-sized enterprises and local developers are highlighting financial stability risks [1] - Despite government measures to cap mortgage lending, housing debt growth has slowed, yet property prices in certain areas of Seoul remain high [1] Trade Risks - Ongoing tariff negotiations with the United States pose a high risk to the economic outlook [1]

Group 1 - South Korea's household credit reached 1952.8 trillion won in Q2, with a month-on-month growth of 1.3% in June, significantly up from 0.1% in March, and a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, the highest since June 2022 [1] - The Bank of Korea's Governor Lee Chang-yong emphasized the "high uncertainty" facing the economy, particularly due to challenging trade conditions and potential risks from US tariff negotiations impacting the export-driven economy [1] - Rising overdue repayment rates among SMEs and local developers indicate increasing debt repayment pressure in certain sectors, reflecting growing financial stability risks domestically [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Korea will hold a crucial monetary policy meeting on August 28 to assess multiple factors, including economic growth potential, inflation trends, and financial system vulnerabilities [2] - Governor Lee stated that if economic data meets expectations, there is a possibility of resuming a monetary easing cycle, provided the financial system remains stable [2] - Analysts note a policy dilemma for the Bank of Korea, balancing the need to stimulate domestic demand through rate cuts against high household debt levels and rising default risks in specific industries [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent rise in gold prices is supported by a weaker dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields, alongside expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Spot gold is trading around $3,360 per ounce, while December futures rose by 0.3% to $3,408.3 per ounce, with silver, platinum, and palladium also experiencing price increases [1] - The decline in the dollar makes gold cheaper for non-dollar buyers, stimulating physical gold demand, while lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] Group 2 - The current rise in gold prices reflects both risk aversion and changes in macroeconomic expectations, with soft inflation data suggesting the Fed may not need to maintain a tight stance [3] - Key factors that could influence gold prices include the Fed's guidance post-September rate cut and global economic uncertainties, which could affect safe-haven demand [3][4] - Short-term, gold bulls are in control, but there is an increasing risk of price volatility at high levels, especially if the dollar rebounds or bond yields rise [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the content regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - Interest rate swap curve inversions are mainly caused by economic fundamentals and capital price/liquidity factors, and in most cases, they can predict central bank reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, especially when reflecting market expectations of economic downturn and policy easing [2][67][68]. - The end of interest rate swap inversions usually means changes in the driving factors, which can be due to improved economic fundamentals, alleviated capital tightness, or implemented monetary policies. However, the monetary easing cycle may not stop immediately after the inversion ends [5][69]. - Interest rate swap inversions are not a necessary condition for monetary easing, which may be related to the central bank's control over inter - bank repo rates and the steeper yield curve after de - leveraging [6][70]. - When an interest rate swap curve inversion occurs, especially accompanied by weak economic fundamentals, it is a strong signal of future monetary policy easing. Investors and policymakers can use this signal to make decisions [7]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Swap Curve Historical Inversion Situation Review - **2011 Inversion**: Occurred in August. On August 19, 5Y - 1Y/2Y - 1Y spreads turned negative. The deepest negative spreads of 5Y - 1Y and 2Y - 1Y were - 55.63bp and - 34.93bp respectively on September 6, 2011. High inflation in 2011 led to a tight monetary policy at first, but with inflation and economic growth down in Q3, long - term bond and IRS rates dropped rapidly under the expectation of monetary easing. The central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio in November [14][16]. - **2012 Inversion**: Had two rounds. The first was from the beginning of 2012 to mid - May, caused by capital rate fluctuations and easing expectations. The second was from July 11 to October 12, caused by reserve requirement ratio cut expectations due to weakening fundamentals. The end of the second inversion was related to the improvement of economic fundamentals [25][26][30]. - **2013 Inversion**: Concentrated in June. Due to tightened capital caused by factors like decreased foreign exchange inflows and the central bank's tight policy stance, it reached the extreme on June 20. The inversion ended after the central bank provided liquidity support on June 25 [36][38][39]. - **2015 Inversion**: Initially occurred at the end of 2014 and concentrated from late January to the end of March. It was caused by capital fluctuations and tightness during the New Year period and the stock market's "bull market". The inversion ended as capital prices dropped rapidly [43][44][51]. II. Whether the Interest Rate Swap Curve Can Predict Interest Rate Cuts - **2011**: The inversion predicted the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, and foreshadowed a monetary easing cycle [54]. - **2012**: The first inversion accurately predicted reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the second predicted interest rate cuts [55]. - **2013**: The inversion did not predict reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts due to the "cash crunch" [56]. - **2015**: The inversion predicted subsequent reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The end of the inversion did not mean the end of monetary easing [57][59]. III. Summary - **Reasons and Characteristics of Interest Rate Swap Curve Inversion**: Mainly caused by economic fundamentals (such as economic slowdown and inflation decline) and capital price/liquidity factors (such as capital tightness) [67]. - **Prediction Effect of Interest Rate Swap Curve on Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts**: In most cases, it can predict reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, especially when reflecting economic downturn and policy easing expectations. It may lead the monetary easing cycle [68]. - **Meaning of the End of Interest Rate Swap Inversion**: It usually means changes in the driving factors, including improved economic fundamentals, alleviated capital tightness, or implemented monetary policies [69]. - **Interest Rate Swap Inversion Is Not a Necessary Condition for Monetary Easing**: This may be related to the central bank's control over inter - bank repo rates and the steeper yield curve after de - leveraging [70]. - **How to Use the Swap Inversion Signal**: When an inversion occurs, especially with weak economic fundamentals, it signals future monetary policy easing. Investors and policymakers can use it as a reference [71].

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain the deposit rate at 2%, marking the first time in over a year that rates have not been changed, aligning with market expectations [1] - The ECB's statement highlights that inflation is currently at the mid-term target level of 2%, but the economic outlook remains highly uncertain due to factors such as trade disputes [1] - There is speculation among investors that the ECB may lower rates by 22 basis points by the end of the year, with a final 25 basis point cut anticipated in September [1] Group 2 - The ECB's meeting coincides with a critical deadline for U.S. tariffs, with reports suggesting optimism about reaching a 15% tariff agreement [2] - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos has warned of stagnation in economic growth for the second and third quarters due to businesses preparing for potential higher tariffs [2] - The euro has appreciated over 13% against the dollar this year, which could exert upward pressure on consumer prices, prompting concerns from various ECB officials about inflation potentially remaining below target levels [2]

Group 1 - International silver is currently trading above $39.02, with a recent high of $39.34 and a low of $38.77, indicating a short-term sideways trend [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates at 2% during its upcoming decision, marking the first pause in over a year as policymakers assess the impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation [4] - A trade agreement limiting U.S. tariffs on EU goods is anticipated, with a proposed 15% tariff on most EU exports to the U.S., which is lower than the previous threat of 30% but still higher than current rates [3] Group 2 - The ECB's decision is influenced by concerns that inflation may fall below the 2% target again, despite having recently achieved it, leading to a split among officials regarding future policy paths [4] - The recent international silver market analysis indicates a potential resistance at $39.50 or $39.75, with support levels at $39.10 or $38.85 [5]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading at approximately 0.6517 against the US dollar (USD), reflecting a 0.41% increase from the previous close of 0.6490 [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in July, bringing the cash rate down to 3.60%, with a terminal rate expected to reach 3.10% by November [1] - The market has fully priced in the expectation of a rate cut in July, with further cuts anticipated in August and November due to weak GDP data and slowing private demand [1] Group 2 - The AUD/USD pair is currently showing a downward trend after breaking below the resistance level of 0.6525, which has now turned into a resistance again [2] - As long as the AUD/USD remains within the range of 0.6360 (support) and 0.6525 (resistance), a sideways consolidation view is maintained [2] - A clear break below the 0.6360 support level would shift the outlook to bearish, targeting the next support level at 0.6225 [2]