证券研究报告|金融工程研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 22 日 [Table_Title] 一周市场数据复盘 20251121 [Table_Summary] ► 宽基指数表现 上周市场普遍下跌，上证 50、沪深 300 跌幅较小，分别 下跌2.72%、3.77%。小盘与成长风格宽基指数跌幅较大，中 证 2000、创业板指分别下跌 6.78%、6.15%。 今年以来小盘与成长风格指数涨幅居前，创业板指、科 创 50 和中证 2000 表现较好，分别上涨 36.35%、30.02%和 25.40%。 ► 行业指数表现 评级及分析师信息 上周跌幅最小的行业是银行、传媒和食品饮料，分别下 跌 0.89%、1.25%和 1.44%。 今年以来有色金属和通信行业表现最好，分别上涨 65.71%和 51.67%。 PE 分位数达 99%的行业包括商贸零售、环保、和煤炭； PE 分位数最低的两个行业是非银金融和食品饮料，分别为 1%和 18%。 ► 行业拥挤度 我们使用行业指数最近一周价格和成交金额变动的马氏 距离衡量拥挤度。 上周房地产和纺织服饰行业出现量升价跌。 [Table_Author] ...

Core Conclusions - The overall valuation of A-shares has expanded this week, with the non-ferrous metals industry continuing to lead the market [1] - During the National Day holiday, favorable factors for the non-ferrous industry have emerged, contributing to its ongoing leadership [1] - The current overall PB (LF) of the non-ferrous metals industry is at the historical 87.8 percentile, with specific sectors like copper, aluminum, lithium, and gold at 92.1%, 96.3%, 40.7%, and 83.6% percentiles respectively, indicating greater valuation upside potential for lithium [1] A-share Valuation Overview - The overall PE (TTM) of A-shares increased from 22.36 times last week to 22.78 times this week, while PB (LF) rose from 2.17 times to 2.21 times [10] - The PE (TTM) of the ChiNext board increased from 81.61 times to 82.22 times, while its PB (LF) remained stable at 4.88 times [19] - The PE (TTM) of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board rose from 272.77 times to 276.66 times, with PB (LF) increasing from 6.72 times to 6.81 times [21] Industry Valuation Levels - From a static PE (TTM) perspective, major industries such as consumer discretionary, midstream manufacturing, and cyclical sectors have absolute and relative valuations above historical medians, with consumer discretionary and midstream manufacturing exceeding the 90th percentile [27] - In terms of PB (LF), TMT, midstream manufacturing, and consumer discretionary also show absolute and relative valuations above historical medians, while financial services and consumer staples are below historical medians [29] - The overall valuation of key companies in A-shares based on dynamic PE increased from 15.17 times to 15.19 times this week [14] Relative Valuation Expansion - The relative PE (TTM) for computing infrastructure, excluding operators and resource categories, decreased from 5.80 times to 5.66 times, while relative PB (LF) fell from 5.69 times to 5.54 times [23] - The current comparison of odds (PB historical percentiles) and win rates (ROE historical percentiles) indicates that industries like oil and petrochemicals, as well as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, exhibit characteristics of low valuation and high profitability [2] ERP and Equity-Debt Yield Spread - The non-financial ERP of A-shares decreased from 0.80% to 0.76%, while the equity-debt yield spread fell from -0.19% to -0.24% [60] - The dynamic ERP of key non-financial companies in A-shares increased from 2.76% to 2.77% this week [64]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

- The report uses Mahalanobis distance to measure industry crowding based on weekly price and transaction volume changes[3][15] - Last week, the automobile industry showed significant short-term crowding, as identified by deviations exceeding 99% confidence levels in the Mahalanobis distance analysis[16][15]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

- The report uses the Mahalanobis distance of weekly price and trading volume changes to measure industry crowding levels[3][17] - The construction process involves identifying industries in the first quadrant (price and volume both rising) and the third quadrant (price and volume both falling) and marking points outside the ellipse as industries with significant short-term deviations at a 99% confidence level[17] - The building materials industry experienced short-term trading overselling last week[3][18]

- The report uses Mahalanobis distance to measure industry crowding based on weekly price and transaction volume changes[3][17][18] - The construction process involves identifying industries where price and transaction volume deviate significantly, with industries outside the ellipse in quadrant 1 indicating short-term significant crowding[17] - Last week, the building materials industry showed significant trading crowding[18]

- The report uses the Mahalanobis distance to measure industry crowding by analyzing the price and trading volume changes of industry indices over the past week[3][15] - The first quadrant represents industries with rising prices and volumes, while the third quadrant represents industries with falling prices and volumes. Points outside the ellipse indicate industries with a price and trading volume deviation confidence level exceeding 99%, signifying short-term significant crowding[15] - Last week, the beauty care and food & beverage industries showed significant trading crowding[3][16]