2025.08. 21 本文字数：2662，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 周艾琳 走近Westfield世贸中心购物中心，它像是一颗嵌在曼哈顿钢筋水泥丛林中的"白色心脏"。而中国最 火的"新消费"代表泡泡玛特（09992.HK）就位于这座曼哈顿最大的购物中心内。 （纽约世贸中心购物中心 摄影/周艾琳） 泡泡玛特门前人流攒动，其中有搜索热门款的中国消费者，也有众多美国消费者兴致勃勃地选购心仪 的IP。同中国门店类似，热门IP都已售罄，不同的是，美国当地的售价最低也达到19.9美元（折合 143元人民币），而部分商品售价都在35~40美元。 "热门款可以去北美官方APP、网站预购，基本几天内会提醒你补货。"一位带着儿子前来购物的非裔 美国女子对第一财经记者称。"祝你好运。"她友好地表示。说完便拿着买到的IP走出了门店。 （位于纽约世贸中心购物中心内的泡泡玛特门店 摄影/周艾琳） 海外市场的火爆也从其财报中可见一斑。2025年上半年，泡泡玛特营收同比增长204%，净利润同比 增长397%。净利润较华尔街的预期高出约5%，大中华区营收同比增长135%，美洲地区营收同比增 长1142%。年初至今，泡泡玛特港股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the "new consumption" sector, represented by Pop Mart and its peers, has raised concerns about valuation, IP lifecycle, and market sustainability, following a rapid price drop in collectibles and stocks within a short period [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Pop Mart's stock price fell significantly, closing at 239.6 HKD per share on June 20, down 3.62% for the day, with a trading volume nearing 10 billion HKD and a net sell-off of 617 million HKD by southbound funds, marking the highest net sell-off since May 12, 2025 [4]. - Over a week, Pop Mart's stock has declined over 15% from its peak of 283.4 HKD per share on June 12, resulting in a market capitalization loss exceeding 50 billion HKD from its high of 380 billion HKD [5]. - The collectible Labubu's price in the secondary market plummeted by over 50%, with some non-hidden variants dropping nearly 60% [6]. Group 2: Valuation Concerns - The "new consumption trio" has seen significant price corrections, with declines of approximately 19% for Lao Pu Gold, 17% for Mixue Group, and 15% for Pop Mart from their respective peaks [2]. - As of June 20, Lao Pu Gold had a year-to-date increase of 243.75% with a dynamic P/E ratio of 89.2, while Pop Mart's increase was 168.36% with a P/E of 95.3, and Mixue Group's increase was 153.83% with a P/E of 40.7 [8]. - Comparatively, traditional consumer giants like Kweichow Moutai have a P/E of 20.2, and international companies like Disney and Hasbro have P/Es of 23.7 and 22.3, respectively, indicating that the new consumption sector may be overvalued [8]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions Among Fund Managers - Optimistic fund managers believe new consumption has high growth potential and cash flow, while cautious managers warn of overvaluation and potential bubbles, suggesting that the current market correction serves as a valuable "stress test" [3][10]. - Some fund managers argue that the current high valuations are unsustainable, especially when comparing the market capitalizations of Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold to established companies like Hasbro and Chow Tai Fook [9]. - Conversely, other fund managers maintain a positive outlook, citing the potential for continued growth in the new consumption sector, particularly in emotional consumption and overseas expansion [10][11]. Group 4: Investment Framework Evolution - The investment framework for new consumption is evolving, with traditional metrics like P/E ratios being challenged by the importance of emotional value, user engagement, and IP longevity [12]. - Analysts emphasize the need for a deeper understanding of target demographics and consumer behavior, moving away from a channel-focused approach to a more nuanced analysis of product appeal and consumer needs [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Pop Mart, Wang Ning, emphasizes a cautious approach amidst the rising popularity of the Labubu IP, highlighting the balance between opportunity and risk, and the importance of maintaining brand trust and consumer experience over rapid growth [3][4]. Group 1: Company Strategy - Wang Ning advocates for a strategy focused on long-term brand development rather than short-term trends, aiming to establish Labubu as a sustainable IP rather than a fleeting fad [3]. - The company has implemented a new supply and pre-sale strategy for Labubu, including a "full-channel replenishment mechanism" and a purchase limit of 12 items per person to manage demand and prevent scalping [4]. Group 2: Market Performance - Despite the ongoing popularity of Labubu, Pop Mart's stock price experienced volatility, dropping from 275 HKD per share to 233 HKD within a few days, resulting in a market value loss of nearly 37 billion HKD [5]. - The fluctuation in stock price is attributed to changes in pre-sale policies affecting secondary market prices and the impact of early investor fund expirations leading to sell-offs [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The premium on Labubu products in the secondary market has decreased from over 200% to approximately 75%, indicating a healthier market environment as supply increases [5][6]. - The situation reflects historical patterns seen with other successful toy brands, where increased supply and market segmentation can lead to a more balanced market for genuine consumers [6]. Group 4: Industry Challenges - The company faces challenges related to the lifecycle of IPs, as the popularity of Labubu may not be sustainable in the long term, similar to previous trends with other IPs like MOLLY [6].

Core Viewpoint - The founder and CEO of Pop Mart, Wang Ning, emphasizes the importance of maintaining a long-term vision for the Labubu IP, rather than allowing it to become a fleeting trend. He highlights the need for caution and stability amidst rising external expectations and risks [1]. Group 1: Company Strategy - Wang Ning advocates for a restrained approach within the company, focusing on sustaining consumer experience and brand trust rather than merely pursuing rapid growth. He stresses that health should take precedence over growth, and long-term success is more valuable than short-term gains [1]. - Following Wang Ning's internal sharing, Pop Mart adjusted its supply and pre-sale strategies for Labubu, launching the "Qianfang Gaoneng" series for global pre-sale on June 18, which had previously become a phenomenon since its initial release [2]. Group 2: Market Performance - Despite the popularity of Labubu during the 618 sales period, Pop Mart's stock price experienced volatility, dropping from 275 HKD per share on June 17 to 233 HKD by June 20, resulting in a market value loss of nearly 37 billion HKD [3]. - The fluctuation in stock price is attributed to changes in pre-sale policies affecting supply and the impact of early investor fund expirations leading to sell-offs, which influenced market sentiment [3]. Group 3: Pricing Dynamics - The premium pricing of Labubu products in the secondary market has decreased significantly, with previous premiums exceeding 200% now reduced to approximately 75%, indicating a healthier market adjustment [3]. - The increase in supply and the introduction of purchasing limits are expected to reduce the activities of scalpers, allowing genuine fans better access to products [4]. Group 4: Industry Challenges - The volatility in stock price and market value serves as a warning for Pop Mart, highlighting the challenges associated with the "IP life cycle." The company faces uncertainty regarding how long Labubu's popularity will last, especially as previous top IPs like MOLLY have seen their prominence decline [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth and lifecycle of IPs (Intellectual Properties) in the global market, particularly focusing on the success of domestic潮玩 (trendy toys) leaders like Labubu, and analyzes the operational strategies of world-class IPs such as Hello Kitty, Pokémon, and Mickey Mouse to identify potential investment opportunities and risks in the IP industry [1][4]. Global IP Market Overview - The global IP toy market is projected to reach 525.1 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 8% from 2024 to 2029, while the Chinese IP toy market is expected to grow to 75.6 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 17.2% during the same period [2][13]. - The concentration of the global IP licensing market has increased, with the top five companies holding a market share of 41% and the top ten at 54% as of 2024, indicating a trend towards market consolidation [2][21]. IP Lifecycle Model - The IP lifecycle is divided into four stages: birth, breakthrough, sedimentation, and stabilization, with each stage requiring different operational strategies to ensure longevity and profitability [3][30]. - Successful IPs often exhibit a high degree of adaptability and resource allocation, which are crucial for navigating through different lifecycle stages [3][30]. Case Studies of World-Class IPs - Hello Kitty, Mickey Mouse, and Pokémon have each experienced distinct lifecycle phases, with their peak GMV values reaching approximately 3.8 billion, 10 billion, and 12 billion USD respectively, showcasing their commercial viability and cultural significance [4][52]. - The commercial success of these IPs is influenced by factors such as brand inclusivity, geographic reach, and diverse monetization strategies, which can provide valuable insights for the domestic潮玩 industry [4][52]. Operational Strategies - Hello Kitty's operational strategy has evolved through various phases, including initial expansion, global breakout, adjustment periods, and digital transformation, highlighting the importance of adaptability in maintaining relevance [53][56]. - Mickey Mouse has maintained a stable brand presence through consistent content updates and a strong licensing model, benefiting from its deep-rooted cultural significance in the U.S. [57][59]. - Pokémon has leveraged continuous content innovation and a broad commercial ecosystem, including games, merchandise, and media, to sustain its popularity and revenue growth [60][62]. Conclusion - The analysis of these IPs illustrates that a well-structured operational strategy, combined with an understanding of market dynamics and consumer preferences, is essential for the longevity and profitability of IPs in the competitive landscape [3][4][30].

Core Viewpoint - The auction of a mint green Labubu for 1.08 million has sparked widespread discussion on social media, highlighting the phenomenon of "emotional consumption" and raising questions about the value of such collectibles [1][7][11]. Group 1: Company Performance - Pop Mart's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 13 billion, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 100%, and nearly 40% of revenue coming from overseas markets, particularly a 600% increase in Southeast Asia and over 510% in North America [4]. - The founder of Pop Mart, Wang Ning, has seen his net worth rise to 146.7 billion, making him a prominent figure in the entrepreneurial landscape and a cultural ambassador for Chinese brands [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The auction of the Labubu collectible is seen as a significant event that enhances its perceived value as an art piece, with the unique mint green version being the only one of its kind [7][11]. - The price of 1.08 million is not considered excessive in the global art market, where high-value transactions are common, indicating that Labubu is positioned to compete at this level [15][18]. Group 3: Brand Strategy - Wang Ning aims to transition Pop Mart from a domestic brand to a global one, emphasizing the need for comprehensive upgrades across supply chains, channels, products, and cultural aspects to adapt to globalization [6][14]. - The success of Labubu is attributed to its ability to resonate with contemporary culture and consumer trends, but there is a need for sustained content output and cultural relevance to maintain its position in the market [19][22]. Group 4: Future Challenges - The challenge for Labubu lies in its ability to continuously innovate and build cultural influence, as past IPs like Molly have shown that popularity can be fleeting without a strong narrative and cultural connection [21][24]. - To establish itself as a true "art-level IP," Pop Mart must evolve beyond the current trends and focus on long-term content and cultural strategies [22][24].