Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Caustic Soda**: The mainstream regional liquid caustic soda market prices continued to decline this week. High开工 and poor sales led to inventory accumulation. With weak supply - demand fundamentals, short - term prices are under pressure, and the short - term driving force remains weak [3]. - **PVC**: Domestic PVC prices rose and then consolidated this week. Although the market sentiment is good and the trend is relatively strong, with the approaching Spring Festival, downstream production demand is weakening, and inventory is rapidly accumulating. Also, the support from raw material calcium carbide is weak. It is expected that the upward space of PVC prices is limited, and it may fluctuate between 4700 - 5000 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Caustic Soda - **Price and Market**: The weekly average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 633 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.36%. There were frequent low - price situations in the week, impacting the market. The main downstream unloading was still difficult, and order transactions were light [3]. - **Supply**: As of Thursday, the weekly weighted average operating load rate of major sample enterprises nationwide was 90.87%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points from last week. There were sporadic short - stops of chlor - alkali plants, but some previously reduced - load plants resumed production [28]. - **Inventory**: On January 21, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda of expanded sample enterprises in East China increased by 5.52% compared with January 14. In Shandong, the inventory decreased by 0.44% [28]. - **Device Dynamics**: There were some ongoing and planned maintenance situations of domestic chlor - alkali enterprises. For example, Wuhai Chemical in the Northwest has been shut down since July 22, 2023, and the start - up time is undetermined. Chongqing Tianyuan in the Southwest plans to have maintenance in March, but the specific time is undetermined [30]. - **Downstream Industry - Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned new - to - be - put - into - production capacity of alumina is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement). It is estimated that the annual production of alumina in 2025 will be over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina demand is equivalent to 400,000 - 550,000 tons of caustic soda per year, and the total demand increment for caustic soda is around 800,000 tons. Recently, alumina futures prices have risen and then fallen, and the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that the price will continue to operate weakly in the range of 2650 - 2850 yuan/ton [34][38]. - **Export**: In December 2025, China's liquid caustic soda imports were 62.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 225.8% and a month - on - month increase of 40.7%. Exports were 309,638.3 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% and a month - on - month increase of 69.3% [59]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market**: Domestic PVC prices rose and then consolidated this week. As of now, the spot ex - warehouse price of calcium carbide - type five - grade in East China is 4520 - 4620 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - type is 4700 - 4800 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The operating load rate of the domestic PVC industry slightly decreased, with some enterprises having unplanned production cuts, but overall supply remained at a high level [4]. - **Device Dynamics**: There were no new maintenance enterprises this week, and the maintenance loss this week was 44,280 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5700 tons. It is expected that the maintenance loss will slightly decrease next week [74]. - **Downstream Industry - Real Estate**: The real estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, with indicators such as housing sales price index, land transaction area, and commercial housing sales area showing weak performance [75]. - **Inventory**: The total PVC inventory is still at the highest level in recent years [82]. - **External Market**: Some external PVC prices have weakened [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In December, the caustic soda market declined comprehensively. The average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 718.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.57%. In Jiangsu, it was 826 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.77%. In January, the main contradiction in the caustic soda market is still supply - demand. It is expected that the supply will increase, and the trading strategy is to try shorting at high prices and set a stop - loss at the pressure level for futures, and to wait and see for options [2]. - In December, PVC prices showed a "first - down - then - up" low - level oscillating trend under the dual influence of supply - demand contradictions and policy expectations. Although there was a phased rebound, it did not change the long - term weak pattern. The trading strategy is to wait and see in the short term and observe the upper pressure level for futures, and to wait and see for options [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Situation**: In December, the price of liquid caustic soda in the main production areas decreased. The market was affected by factors such as high supply and weak demand from alumina. The price of liquid chlorine supported high - level production, which was negative for the price of caustic soda in Shandong [2]. - **Supply**: In December, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 85.70%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74 percentage points. The monthly output was 373.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.59% and a year - on - year increase of 5.58%. The inventory pressure of caustic soda plants decreased slightly [24]. - **Demand from Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 12.3 million tons, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The estimated annual output of alumina in 2025 is over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina production capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 150,000 tons from April to June [28]. - **Export**: In November, caustic soda exports weakened, and the estimated export profit increased slightly [54]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market Situation**: In December, PVC prices showed a "first - down - then - up" low - level oscillating trend. The price decline at the beginning of the month was due to high inventory and weak demand, and the subsequent rebound was driven by policy expectations and supply - side marginal changes, but the long - term weak pattern remained unchanged [2]. - **Supply**: In December 2025, the estimated PVC output was 2.1399 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.91% and a year - on - year increase of 4.28%. December is the traditional off - season for PVC demand, and the downstream demand is weak [83]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate industry continues to have a negative impact on demand, and domestic demand has not improved significantly. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [85]. - **Inventory**: The total PVC inventory is still at the highest level in recent years [93]. - **Export**: In November 2025, the PVC export volume was 275,300 tons, with an average export price of 589 US dollars/ton. The monthly export decreased by 11.78% month - on - month and increased by 29.64% year - on - year. The import volume was 15,700 tons, with an average import price of 708 US dollars/ton [110]. Alumina - **Market Situation**: After continuous decline, the alumina price has gradually stabilized, but the fundamental situation is still weak, with an oversupply situation in the domestic market. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2650 - 2900 yuan in the short term [35]. Bauxite - **Market Situation**: The bauxite price is stable, and the inventory has been reduced to a certain extent [36]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Situation**: The output of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, and the in - plant inventory has decreased [42]. Non - Aluminum Downstream - **Market Situation**: The operating rate of non - aluminum downstream industries has declined, and the off - season is approaching [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand situation in the caustic soda industry remains severe. Although the operating rate has declined slightly and inventory has decreased marginally this week, the inventory level is still relatively high compared to the same period in recent years. Downstream demand is weak, and there are no obvious short - term positive factors. The price is expected to be bearish next week. The Shandong market performs poorly, and there are expectations of price cuts in alumina procurement in Shanxi and Henan, which is negative for the Shandong market. The supply in Shandong remains high, and further price cuts are possible. In the East China region, the supply of liquid caustic soda plants is expected to increase, while downstream demand shows no substantial improvement. The current strong performance of the futures price lacks real support, and the rebound height is expected to be limited [2]. - **PVC**: This week, PVC prices continued to rise driven by commodities. The operating rate decreased slightly, but the inventory remained at a high level, and demand was persistently weak. During the off - season, the operating rate of hard products was at a low level, while that of soft products was relatively stable. Market transactions were mainly based on spot fixed - price sales. As prices rose, downstream观望 sentiment increased, and high - price exports faced significant resistance. The cost support was weak. Currently in the traditional off - season, outdoor construction in the north is decreasing, and the overall real estate demand reduction has a negative impact. The international market is highly competitive, and exports have limited support. The overall demand side performs poorly, and the current weak fundamentals of PVC spot are difficult to support the continued rise of the PVC market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda - **Price and Market**: The caustic soda futures price has shown various trends due to factors such as macro - environment changes, supply - demand relationships, and cost fluctuations. The spot price has also been affected by factors like alumina procurement prices. The current price is expected to be bearish in the short term [2][8]. - **Supply**: As of Thursday this week, the national weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises was 88.47%, a decrease of 1.37 percentage points from last week. The inventory in East China decreased slightly, while that in Shandong increased due to high supply and weak demand [27]. - **Device Status**: Some enterprises in different regions are in a state of shutdown, half - load operation, or maintenance. The total maintenance loss this week was 3.15 tons, and there are also planned maintenance arrangements in the future [28]. - **Alumina Demand**: From the end of 24 to 25, there are plans to put into production 1230 tons of alumina capacity (including 200 tons of replacement). It is estimated that the annual production capacity growth rate will be around 10%, and the annual output in 2025 will be over 8800 tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina projects will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 80 tons annually, with a relatively concentrated increase of 15 tons from April to June [32]. - **Export**: In November, caustic soda exports weakened, but the estimated export profit increased slightly [58]. 3.2 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market**: PVC spot prices continued to rise this week driven by the sentiment of commodities. However, the fundamentals of the spot market are weak, and it is difficult to support continued price increases [3][66]. - **Profit**: This week, as prices rose, the industry profit was slightly repaired [71]. - **Supply**: The operating load rate of the domestic PVC powder industry decreased slightly this week. There was a new enterprise under maintenance, and the maintenance loss increased. The overall operating load rate was 75.42%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from last week. The operating load rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder increased by 0.45 percentage points, while that of ethylene - based PVC powder decreased by 3.33 percentage points [87]. - **Device Status**: There are long - term shutdown, maintenance, and temporary shutdown situations in different enterprises. The theoretical loss due to shutdown and maintenance this week was 5.362 tons, an increase of 0.495 tons from last week. It is expected that the maintenance loss will decrease next week [89][91]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate industry is still in a bottom - building period, providing negative feedback on demand. The domestic demand has not improved significantly, and downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years. Raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels, and it is difficult for the downstream of PVC to have positive driving forces [93]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory is still at the highest level compared to recent years [101]. - **Export**: In November 2025, PVC exports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, while imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [118].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. Although enterprise inventories have started to decline and there is some downstream purchasing enthusiasm in some regions, inventory levels remain high. In the short term, there are no obvious positive factors, and prices are expected to be weak. The PVC market is expected to continue range - bound operation. Supply pressure remains high next week, demand is under pressure both domestically and internationally, and cost - side support is expected to weaken. Overall, the supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, and prices are not optimistic, expected to continue the weakening trend. [2][3] - Futures strategy advice: Hold short positions for caustic soda and maintain a bearish mindset for PVC; Option strategy advice: Observe for both caustic soda and PVC. [4][5] Summary by Directory Caustic Soda - **Price Trend**: The caustic soda price has experienced multiple fluctuations due to factors such as macro - environment changes, alumina demand, inventory levels, and cost changes. Currently, it is expected to be weak. [8] - **Supply Situation**: As of Thursday this week, the national weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises was 89.84%, a 0.02 - percentage - point decrease from last week. In Shandong, the operating rate was 91.71%, an increase of 0.26%. On December 10, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in expanded sample enterprises in East China decreased by 5.14% compared to December 3, and in Shandong, it decreased by 18.12%. [27] - **Device Status**: There are multiple caustic soda plants under maintenance or with planned maintenance, such as Wuhai Chemical, Zhejiang Juhua, and Ningbo Wanhua. The total maintenance loss this week is 239 tons. [28] - **Alumina Impact**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement), with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The estimated annual alumina output in 2025 is over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina production capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by around 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 150,000 tons from April to June. [32] - **Non - Alumina Downstream**: The textile starting rate has declined, while the viscose staple fiber starting rate has increased. [51] - **Export Situation**: In October, caustic soda exports weakened, and the estimated export profit declined. [58] Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Trend**: The PVC price has fluctuated due to factors such as supply - demand changes, macro - environment, and energy prices. Currently, the core contradiction is that the supply - demand has not been substantially improved, and the spot price has continued to weaken. [65][66] - **Profit Situation**: The industry profit has continued to deteriorate, including the profits of different production methods such as the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method. [71] - **Supply Situation**: This week, the domestic PVC powder industry's operating load rate decreased slightly. The overall operating load rate was 78.39%, a 0.62 - percentage - point decrease from last week. Among them, the calcium carbide - method PVC powder operating load rate decreased by 2.96 percentage points, and the ethylene - method PVC powder operating load rate increased by 4.75 percentage points. [87] - **Device Status**: There are multiple PVC plants under long - term shutdown, maintenance, or with planned maintenance, such as Taiwen Salt Chemical, Ningbo Zhenyang, and Ningbo Hanhua. [89] - **Downstream Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face pressure from both demand and industry competition. The real - estate sector still gives negative feedback on demand, and domestic demand has not improved significantly. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and both raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels. [95] - **Real - Estate Data**: The real - estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, with the housing sales price index and land transaction area showing certain trends. [96] - **Inventory Situation**: The total PVC inventory is still at the highest level in recent years compared year - on - year. [103] - **External Market and Export**: Some external market prices have weakened. In October 2025, PVC exports were 312,100 tons, with an average export price of $605 per ton. Imports were 10,900 tons, with an average import price of $725 per ton. [110][121]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. Supply is expected to increase with new capacity coming online, while demand is generally weak. Social inventory is slightly decreasing but still at a high level. The future trend depends on policies such as anti - involution and real - estate development policies [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. Supply is affected by increased device maintenance, and demand varies in different sectors. The price may be supported by the expected alumina plant production in Guangxi, but costs also play a role [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,601 yuan/ton (-7), the East China basis is - 101 yuan/ton (-13), and the South China basis is - 11 yuan/ton (-3) [1] - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,500 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,590 yuan/ton (-10) [1] - **Upstream Production Profit**: The blue carbon price is 800 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,805 yuan/ton (-25), the calcium carbide profit is - 125 yuan/ton (-25), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit is - 820 yuan/ton (-50), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit is - 491 yuan/ton (-26), and the PVC export profit is - 1.2 US dollars/ton (-1.3) [1] - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: PVC factory inventory is 32.2 tons (-1.2), social inventory is 53.2 tons (-1.3), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 79.57% (-0.60%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 70.13% (-7.10%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 76.71% (-2.57%) [1] - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.9 tons (-4.3) [1] Caustic Soda - **Futures and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,291 yuan/ton (-36), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 147 yuan/ton (+5) [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton (-10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,442 yuan/ton (-31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 776.0 yuan/ton (-31.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 30.97 yuan/ton (-6.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 721.53 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 40.22 tons (-1.26), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.02 tons (+0.12), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.10% (-0.70%) [2] - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The alumina operation rate is 85.37% (+0.12%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 66.55% (-1.51%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.50% (-0.10%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply is expected to increase as new capacity comes into production, while demand is weak with a general purchasing sentiment. Social inventory is decreasing slightly but still high. The futures price is under pressure from high - level warehouse receipts [3] Caustic Soda - Supply is affected by increased device maintenance. Demand varies, with alumina plants in Shandong reducing purchase prices. The price may be supported by the expected alumina production in Guangxi, and costs also play a role [3] Strategy PVC - Single - side: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [4] Caustic Soda - Single - side: Range - bound - Inter - delivery: Long SH12 and short SH01 at low prices - Inter - commodity: None [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. The purchasing enthusiasm of the main downstream alumina has declined, and the long - term supply - demand remains under pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For PVC, the supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, and the price is hard to be optimistic, with an expected continuation of the bottom - weakening pattern. Futures strategies suggest a bearish approach, and option strategies suggest waiting and seeing [2][3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Situation**: The caustic soda futures price has shown various trends due to factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand changes, and cost fluctuations. The spot price has also been affected by factors like alumina demand and enterprise profit. For example, the Shandong liquid chlorine price going negative has impacted enterprise profits, and the price has support at the 2350 level [8]. - **Supply**: The national average weekly weighted operating load rate of sample enterprises was 89.79%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points from last week. The caustic soda output in terms of 100% purity was 86.62 tons, a 0.08% decrease from last week. Some chlor - alkali plants reduced production due to maintenance or breakdowns. There are also many maintenance plans for caustic soda plants in different regions [27][28]. - **Demand**: Alumina is the main downstream of caustic soda. From the end of 2024 to 2025, there are plans to put into production 12.3 million tons of alumina capacity (including 2 million tons of replacement), with an estimated annual production increase of about 6%. The new alumina capacity is expected to increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year. However, the alumina industry currently has poor profits, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term, with a price range of 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. Non - aluminum downstream industries such as printing, dyeing, and textiles also have weak demand [32][33][36]. - **Export**: In September, the export profit of caustic soda increased, and the export volume rebounded significantly. However, it is estimated that the export profit will decline later [57]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market Situation**: The PVC futures price has continued to decline due to the lack of positive supply - demand drivers and a poor commodity market atmosphere. The spot price has also been weak, with the core issue being the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand [64][65]. - **Profit**: The industry profit of PVC has been deteriorating, including the profits of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in the East China region, as well as the marginal integrated profit and northwest integrated profit [70]. - **Supply**: The domestic PVC powder industry's operating load rate decreased this week. There were 2 new planned maintenance devices, and the overall maintenance loss increased. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder was 76.71%, a decrease of 2.57 percentage points from last week. Among them, the operating load rate of calcium carbide - based PVC powder was 79.57%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, and that of ethylene - based PVC powder was 70.13%, a decrease of 7.1 percentage points [84]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate industry, which is the main demand source, is still in the bottom - building period, and the demand is expected to continue to be negative. The domestic demand has not improved significantly, and the downstream orders are significantly lower than the average level of the past five years, with high raw material and finished - product inventories [96]. - **Inventory**: The PVC inventory has decreased slightly, but the total inventory is still at the highest level in recent years compared year - on - year [104]. - **Export**: In September 2025, the PVC import volume was 14,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 16.08% and a year - on - year increase of 7.73%. The export volume was 346,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 21.945% and a year - on - year increase of 24.53% [122].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. Supply is increasing with the resumption of maintenance and new capacity coming online, while demand has a general purchasing sentiment. Export orders are weakening, and inventory is relatively high. The market is affected by policies such as anti - involution and real - estate development policies [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. Supply is increasing with new maintenance and capacity utilization changes. Demand from the alumina side is affected by environmental control, and non - aluminum demand will weaken in the off - season. The price may be supported by new alumina plant demand, and cost support exists due to factors like electricity price and chlorine price [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,670 yuan/ton (- 10), the East China basis is - 70 yuan/ton (+ 10), and the South China basis is - 10 yuan/ton (- 10) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,600 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,660 yuan/ton (- 20) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The semi - coke price is 740 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit is - 52 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 763 yuan/ton (- 40), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 545 yuan/ton (+ 16), and the PVC export profit is 0.5 US dollars/ton (+ 4.2) [1]. - **Inventory and Capacity Utilization**: The PVC factory inventory is 33.8 million tons (+ 0.4), the social inventory is 54.5 million tons (- 1.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC capacity utilization is 76.47% (+ 4.82%), the ethylene - based PVC capacity utilization is 78.50% (- 0.06%), and the overall PVC capacity utilization is 77.09% (+ 3.35%) [1]. - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 77.4 million tons (+ 13.9) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,336 yuan/ton (- 14), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 164 yuan/ton (+ 14) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,509 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 725.8 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 113.78 yuan/ton (+ 0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 979.23 yuan/ton (- 90.51) [2]. - **Inventory and Capacity Utilization**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 44.26 million tons (+ 2.83), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.73 million tons (+ 0.28), and the caustic soda capacity utilization is 84.30% (+ 3.50%) [2]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: The alumina capacity utilization is 85.86% (- 0.41%), the dyeing capacity utilization in East China is 68.06% (+ 0.75%), and the viscose staple fiber capacity utilization is 89.66% (+ 1.05%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - **Supply**: Maintenance has resumed this week, supply has increased, and new capacity is gradually being put into production. The supply situation remains abundant [3]. - **Demand**: Downstream capacity utilization has increased, but the purchasing sentiment is general. Exports are trading at lower prices for volume, and export orders are weakening [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory has slightly decreased, but the absolute value is still high. The futures warehouse receipts are at a high level, putting pressure on the futures price [3]. Caustic Soda - **Supply**: There are both new maintenance enterprises and capacity utilization increases. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 - ton capacity release of Tangshan Sanyou [3]. - **Demand**: Alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but the alumina capacity utilization in Hebei has decreased slightly due to environmental control. Non - aluminum demand will weaken in the off - season [3]. - **Inventory**: The national liquid caustic soda inventory has increased [3]. - **Price**: The spot price is stable with a slight decline. The price may be supported by new alumina plant demand, and cost support exists due to factors like electricity price and chlorine price [3]. Strategy PVC - **Single - side**: Wide - range volatility, with the option to conduct positive arbitrage between futures and spot [4]. - **Inter - period**: Wait and see [4]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy [4]. Caustic Soda - **Single - side**: Range - bound volatility [5]. - **Inter - period**: Wait and see [5]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy [5].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 - This week, the caustic soda futures market stopped falling and stabilized, with a significant rebound on Friday. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, and the operating rate of sample manufacturers will rise. The profit margins of domestic alumina enterprises have been continuously narrowing due to the ongoing decline in alumina prices both at home and abroad. The spot price support is weak. In the North China region, inventory has increased due to the decline in the purchase price of the main downstream in Shandong and the cautious purchasing attitude of downstream buyers. In the East China region, the supply is tight as the maintenance and production - reduction devices of enterprises have not yet resumed, and the inventory is decreasing due to the rigid demand from non - aluminum sectors. In the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, there may be a price cut as the short - term inventory of liquid caustic soda needs time to be released, and the current supply is at a high level while the main downstream is facing difficulties in unloading [2]. 2.2 PVC - This week, the PVC futures market rebounded due to the improvement in the macro - environment. However, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is still difficult to resolve. Next week, many enterprises will end their maintenance, and the production is expected to increase. On the demand side, the improvement in the operating rate of downstream products is limited, and some have completed their inventory replenishment, so they are resistant to high prices, and the purchasing enthusiasm is average. The cost of raw material calcium carbide is on an upward trend, while the ethylene price is stable, providing bottom - line support. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Attention should be paid to the performance of downstream demand [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda 3.1.1 Price and Market Trends - The caustic soda futures price has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and cost. For example, the price accelerated its decline when the macro was weak, the operating rate was high, and there were concerns about future supply. It also had rebounds under the influence of positive policies and increased demand [8]. 3.1.2 Supply - As of Thursday this week, the weekly weighted average operating rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 85.44%, a decrease of 1.29 percentage points from last week's 86.73%. The operating rate in Shandong was 85.11%, a decrease of 2.24%. The inventory in the East China region increased by 0.70% from September 10th to September 17th, and the inventory in Shandong increased by 8.28% and 7.46% respectively for different sample enterprises. The overall operating rate of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong is still relatively high, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, leading to an increase in inventory [27]. 3.1.3 Demand - The alumina industry, the main downstream of caustic soda, has a large number of new production capacity plans from the end of 2024 to 2025. It is estimated that the annual production capacity growth rate will be around 10%, and the annual output in 2025 will be over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina projects will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with a concentrated demand of 150,000 tons from April to June [32]. 3.1.4 Other Related Industries - The price of bauxite is stable, the port inventory fluctuates, and the enterprise raw material inventory has increased significantly. The production of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, and the in - plant inventory is decreasing. The non - aluminum downstream industries such as printing and dyeing, textiles, and papermaking have different trends. The printing and dyeing operating rate is seasonally rising, and the textile industry is gradually entering the peak season [39][45][50]. 3.2 PVC 3.2.1 Price and Market Trends - The PVC futures price has been affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, macro - environment, and cost. It has experienced continuous declines and rebounds. For instance, it fell when there was no positive supply - demand drive and the commodity atmosphere was poor, and rebounded when the macro - sentiment improved and there were some supply - demand contradictions [62]. 3.2.2 Supply - This week, the operating rate of the domestic PVC powder industry decreased, the weekly maintenance loss increased, and the number of temporarily shut - down devices increased. The overall operating rate of PVC powder was 75.43%, a decrease of 3.96 percentage points compared with the previous week. Among them, the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder was 76.91%, a decrease of 3.38 percentage points, and that of ethylene - based PVC powder was 72%, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points [84]. 3.2.3 Demand - The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, are facing great pressure. The real - estate industry, with the goal of "reducing inventory and stabilizing prices," still has a negative impact on demand. According to the data from Xuande samples, the downstream orders are significantly lower than the average level of the past five years, and both raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels. It is expected that there will be no positive driving force for the PVC downstream [92]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The PVC inventory continues to rise, and the total inventory is at the highest level in recent years compared with the same period. The social inventory in the East China and South China regions, as well as the total social inventory and factory inventory, have all shown an upward trend [100]. 3.2.5 Foreign Market - In July 2025, the PVC import volume was 24,500 tons, with an average import price of $712 per ton. The cumulative import from January to July was 148,800 tons. The single - month import increased by 2.10% month - on - month, 46.98% year - on - year, and the cumulative import increased by 6.03% year - on - year. The export volume in July was 330,600 tons, with an average export price of $606 per ton. The cumulative export from January to July was 2.291 million tons. The single - month export increased by 26.17% month - on - month, 112.82% year - on - year, and the cumulative export increased by 56.91% year - on - year. The domestic trade price has adjusted, and the export windows to Southeast Asia and India have opened, with relatively good weekly export transactions [118]. 3.3 Futures and Options Strategy Recommendations 3.3.1 Caustic Soda - Futures strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for the 01 contract [4]. - Options strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4]. 3.3.2 PVC - Futures strategy: Expect the 01 contract to fluctuate in the range of 4,800 - 5,000 [5]. - Options strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5].