2025 年 10 月 10 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：86 分（过热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 1、《双融日报》2025-10-09 2、《双融日报》2025-09-30 3、《双融日报》2025-09-29 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 86 分，市场情绪处于"过热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：人工智能、有色金属、储能 1、人工智能主题：阿里集团董事兼首席执行官吴泳铭 9 月 24 日在 2025 云栖大会上表示，大模型是下一代操作系统， 而 AI 云是下一代计算机，也许未来全世界只会有五六个超级 云计算平台。目前阿里正积极推进 3800 亿元的 AI 基础设施 建设，并计划追加更大的投入。相关标的：工业富联 （601138）、中际旭创（300308） 2、有色金属主题：印尼格拉斯伯格矿区因山体滑坡推迟复工 至 2026 年上半年，引发铜供应担忧， ...

2025 年 10 月 09 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：61 分（较热） ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：人工智能、有色金属、储能 1、人工智能主题：阿里集团董事兼首席执行官吴泳铭 9 月 24 日在 2025 云栖大会上表示，大模型是下一代操作系统， 而 AI 云是下一代计算机，也许未来全世界只会有五六个超级 云计算平台。目前阿里正积极推进 3800 亿元的 AI 基础设施 建设，并计划追加更大的投入。相关标的：工业富联 （601138）、中际旭创（300308） 2、有色金属主题：印尼格拉斯伯格矿区因山体滑坡推迟复工 至 2026 年上半年，引发铜供应担忧，推升国际铜价。国内铜 冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争导致加工费持续低迷，行业呼吁自 律减产，进一步强化供给收缩预期。供需两端共振，驱动有 色金属价格上行。相关标的：紫金矿业（601899）、江西铜 业（600362） 3、储能主题：国内《新型储能专项行动方案》明确 2027 年 装机 1.8 亿千瓦，撬动 2500 亿元直接投资，容量补偿、现货 价差等政策将项目 IR ...

2025 年 09 月 29 日 双融日报 最近一年大盘走势 10 15 20 (%) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 相关研究 1、《双融日报》2025-09-26 2、《双融日报》2025-09-25 3、《双融日报》2025-09-24 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较冷） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 39 分，市场情绪处于"较冷"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：39 分（较冷） 今日热点主题：人工智能、有色金属、储能 1、人工智能主题：阿里集团董事兼首席执行官吴泳铭 9 月 24 日在 2025 云栖大会上表示，大模型是下一代操作系统， 而 AI 云是下一代计算机，也许未来全世界只会有五六个超级 云计算平台。目前阿里正积极推进 3800 亿元的 AI 基础设施 建设，并计划追加更大的投入。相关标的：工业富联 （601138）、中际旭创（300308） 2、有色金属主题：印尼格拉斯伯格矿区因山体滑坡推迟复工 至 ...

（原标题：储能设备股异动，"宁王"股价冲上400元创纪录！） 9月25日，A股市场震荡上行，创业板指探底回升一度涨逾2%，续创3年多新高。板块方面，储能设备板块震荡拉升，宁德时代股价盘中最高达 402.59元/股，续创历史新高。西典新能涨停，中恒电气、中国宝安、亿纬锂能涨超6%，当升科技、英杰电气等多股跟涨。 美银证券称，2025年世界储能大会上周于福建省宁德市举行，不少中国电动车企业及电池公司都有参与，目前对储能行业看法更趋正面。该行预 期，2025至2030年储能电池需求将受国内政策支持及海外市场增长带动保持坚挺，行业专家预测至2030年中国电池储能累计装机容量将达 240GW，另外欧洲及新兴市场未来两至三年储能需求亦持续强劲，预期2025年全球储能需求约500GWh，2026至2027年则将增长约30%及25%。 （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25% reflects a response to economic slowdown and political pressure, presenting both challenges and opportunities for Chinese export enterprises and cross-border e-commerce [1]. Direct Impact: Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Cost Restructuring - The depreciation of the US dollar typically leads to the appreciation of the RMB, impacting the competitiveness of export prices. For instance, the USD/RMB exchange rate fell from 7.3 to around 7.1, potentially causing a profit decline of 0.5%-1% for the textile industry with every 1% appreciation of the RMB [7][8]. - The appreciation of the RMB reduces import costs for raw materials and consumer goods, allowing cross-border e-commerce companies to optimize procurement strategies, particularly in categories like 3C electronics and beauty products [8]. - Increased exchange rate volatility raises the risk of foreign exchange losses for enterprises, with some exporters experiencing losses exceeding 5% of net profit in a single quarter due to unhedged positions [9]. Indirect Impact: Capital Flows and Market Segmentation - The Fed's rate cut encourages capital flow to emerging markets, reducing financing costs for Chinese export enterprises. For example, the dollar loan interest rate decreased from 5% to 4%, alleviating financial pressure [10]. - While US consumer spending may be stimulated by lower rates, high inflation could weaken actual purchasing power, leading to mixed demand for Chinese exports, with some categories like home appliances and clothing seeing moderate growth [12]. Long-term Trends: Industrial Upgrading and Restructuring - Traditional export sectors face pressure to upgrade due to RMB appreciation and rising labor costs, prompting a shift of low-end production to Southeast Asia. Companies are encouraged to innovate and build brands to enhance value [15]. - High-tech products and flexible supply chains are becoming central to cross-border e-commerce, with high-tech exports projected to account for 35% of total exports by 2024 [16]. - Diversification into regional markets through agreements like RCEP is essential for reducing reliance on the US market, with exports to ASEAN expected to rise to 16% by 2024 [17]. Corporate Response Strategies: From Passive Adaptation to Active Transformation - Traditional export enterprises should implement dynamic hedging strategies, diversify settlement currencies, and enhance product and market upgrades through increased R&D and brand development [18][20]. - Cross-border e-commerce companies are advised to optimize supply chains through localized procurement and flexible production, while also adjusting operational strategies to reduce dependency on third-party platforms [22][24]. Conclusion - The Fed's rate cut may intensify short-term risks for Chinese export enterprises and cross-border e-commerce, but it also compels a shift towards high-tech and high-value-added operations, necessitating a robust competitive framework for sustainable growth [29].

Group 1: Defense Industry - The report highlights the signing of a defense agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, with potential participation from UAE and Qatar, indicating a shift towards seeking security guarantees from Chinese weapon systems, which is expected to significantly enhance Pakistan's weapon procurement capabilities [2] - The report anticipates a rebound in the military industry due to increased funding from the wealthiest Middle Eastern nations supporting Pakistan's military procurement [2] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - Huawei's recent announcements at the 2025 Huawei Connect Conference detail a roadmap for the Ascend chip series, with the Ascend 950PR expected in Q1 2026 and the Ascend 960 in Q4 2027, indicating a trend of increasing chip usage in computing clusters [3] - The report suggests that the growth in chip usage will lead to a significant increase in demand for high-speed optical interconnects and high-end PCB, thus improving the outlook for the optical connection, PCB, and high-end chip manufacturing supply chains [3] Group 3: Energy Storage Industry - The report discusses insights from the 2025 World Energy Storage Conference, where the focus is on long-duration energy storage as a key development direction as the power system transitions to a stage where renewable energy sources exceed 50% of total generation [6] - Technologies such as vanadium flow batteries, compressed air storage, and hydrogen storage are expected to gain traction due to their longer discharge times and lower capacity costs, indicating a sustained high demand in the energy storage sector [6] Group 4: Home Appliance Industry - The report notes that Boss Electric's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 4.608 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.58%, with net profit dropping by 6.28%, reflecting challenges in the kitchen appliance sector linked to the real estate market [8] - The report highlights a significant drop in new residential sales and a contraction in the market for high-end renovation projects, which is expected to continue impacting the kitchen appliance industry negatively [8]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 0.26% to 3860.5 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.63% to 13005.77 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.52% to 3066.18 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 230.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 245.2 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Automotive Sector - The automotive industry chain stocks experienced a strong rally, with Haon Electric (301488) hitting the daily limit and reaching a new high, while Wanxiang Qianchao (000559) and Zhejiang Shibao (002703) also reached their daily limits [2][3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments recently released a plan to promote the industrial application of intelligent connected vehicles, which includes pilot projects for vehicle-road-cloud integration and encourages the production of L3-level vehicles [4][5][6] Energy Storage Sector - The energy storage concept stocks surged, with companies like Tengya Precision (301125) and Ningde Times (300750) reaching new historical highs, with Ningde Times trading volume exceeding 25.59 billion yuan [7][8] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration announced a plan for new energy storage construction, aiming for over 100 million kilowatts of new installed capacity within three years, which could lead to direct investment of approximately 250 billion yuan [9] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector was active, with companies like Shengbang Technology (300661) and Shanghai Beiling (600171) hitting their daily limits [10][11] - Recent U.S. trade actions have increased domestic manufacturers' willingness to replace imports, and the ongoing anti-dumping investigations may create a favorable market environment for local firms [12] Biotechnology Sector - Yaoke Ankang's stock price surged over 110% in a single day, with a cumulative increase of nearly 500% over the past four trading days, following the announcement of clinical trial approvals for its core product [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the focus of the Luwest New Area on alleviating difficulties for enterprises, enhancing services, ensuring strong support, and accelerating project implementation to foster high-quality regional economic development [1]. Project Progress - The installation and debugging of equipment for Line 1, Line 3, and Line 5 are ongoing, preparing for future production; Line 4 has successfully achieved pilot testing; Line 2 has officially commenced production [3]. - The modular factory construction has reached full completion of all individual units, with simultaneous installation and flooring work underway, laying a solid foundation for subsequent equipment entry and production [8]. - The main structure of the energy storage project has been completed, with drainage facilities ready for construction, awaiting equipment arrival [17]. - The construction of the high-end injection project is progressing efficiently, with multiple engineering tasks nearing completion [31]. Project Features - The zero-carbon industrial park project is designed specifically for the production and manufacturing of long-duration energy storage batteries and systems, aiming to create the world's first integrated zero-carbon industrial park for long-duration energy storage [7]. - The green energy storage and large-scale energy equipment project, once fully operational, will become a leading national green energy equipment industrial park [11]. - The energy storage project plans to establish two 2.5GWh dedicated battery production lines, four module pack lines, and two energy storage system integration production lines, with an annual production capacity of 5GWh for dedicated energy storage batteries and 3,000 sets of energy storage system equipment [16]. - The automotive fastener project aims to develop a research, production, and sales base for automotive parts, precisely matching the needs of mid-to-high-end models from brands like Ford, Volkswagen, Tesla, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW [20]. - The project for ecological diatom boards focuses on constructing production and deep processing lines for fourth-generation diatom inorganic mineral boards, along with a national-level fireproof material testing center [25].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates that the company, Deye Co., Ltd., is experiencing significant growth in its business, particularly in the energy storage sector, with a strong increase in net profit and sales volume in the first half of 2025 [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.522 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.18%, with a gross margin of 37.48% [1] - In Q2 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 817 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.72% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.74%, with a gross margin of 37.71% [1] Market Demand - The global demand for industrial and commercial energy storage is rapidly increasing, particularly in Europe, driven by subsidies and the decline of Feed-in Tariffs (FIT) [1] - Countries such as Pakistan, Myanmar, Nigeria, and those in the Middle East are experiencing strong demand for energy storage due to high electricity prices and frequent power outages [1] Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company sold a total of 315,600 energy storage inverters, marking a year-on-year increase of 47.41%, with 272,700 units for residential storage and 42,900 units for industrial storage (over 200% year-on-year growth) [1] - The energy storage battery pack business saw rapid growth, achieving operating revenue of 1.422 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 85.80%, accounting for 25.78% of the company's main business revenue, with a gross margin of 35.01% [1] Employee Engagement - The company has launched an employee stock ownership plan to enhance employee cohesion [1] Investment Rating - Given the rapid growth and strong profitability of the company's industrial storage inverters and battery pack business, the investment rating is maintained at "Buy" [1]

Summary of the Conference Call for 德业股份 Company Overview - The company reported a revenue of 5.773 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.97% [2] - Net profit reached 1.531 billion yuan, up 18.67% year-on-year, with a non-GAAP net profit of 1.603 billion yuan [2][3] - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 37%, down 8 percentage points from the previous year [2][6] Key Business Segments - **Energy Storage Inverters**: Revenue from energy storage inverters was 2.09 billion yuan, with household storage contributing 1.456 billion yuan (up 8.75%) and commercial storage at 638 million yuan (up 1,303%) [2][4] - **Energy Storage Battery Packs**: Revenue reached 1.42 billion yuan, showing an 85.8% increase year-on-year [2][4] - **Dehumidifiers**: Revenue was 400 million yuan, with a gross margin of 36%, down 1 percentage point from the previous year [4][6] - **Heat Exchangers**: Revenue was 800 million yuan, down 17% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 12%, up 1 percentage point [5][6] Market Performance and Trends - **European Market**: Strong demand in Eastern Europe and Spain, driven by subsidy policies and power outages. The overall performance in Europe is expected to exceed last year's results [2][8] - **Southeast Asia**: Rapid growth in markets like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand, with significant market share [2][16][18] - **Africa**: Notable performance in countries like Lebanon, Iraq, Sudan, and Nigeria, contributing to overall shipment scale [2][16][19] Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve a non-GAAP profit target of 3.1 billion yuan for the full year [7] - New products are expected to be launched in the third quarter, which may drive growth [7] - The company anticipates that the European market will continue to benefit from subsidy policies, particularly in Romania [14] Competitive Landscape - The company maintains a strong market position in Southeast Asia despite competitive pricing from rivals. It believes that significant price cuts by competitors would not sustainably affect its market share [46][47] Product Development and Innovations - The company is expanding into commercial microgrid and off-grid applications, with plans to launch new products [4][29] - A new high-capacity inverter is expected to cater to complex loads and microgrid systems, particularly in Africa [37] Supply Chain and Cost Management - The gross margin for energy storage battery packs is expected to remain around 35% in the second half of 2025, with stable supply from domestic battery manufacturers [23] - The company is also exploring new product lines, including data center power solutions [29] Conclusion - The company is well-positioned for growth in both domestic and international markets, with a focus on expanding its product offerings and maintaining competitive pricing strategies. The outlook for the second half of 2025 appears optimistic, supported by strong demand in key markets and new product launches.