中泰证券（600918）认为，无人物流行业迈向全面商业化阶段。历经2010—2016的探索时期、2016— 2023的商业化突破阶段、2024年以来，无人驾驶物流车正在向全面商业化迈进。无人配送车的应用场景 从特定区域扩展到完全开放道路，头部科技公司/物流公司开始大规模量产。 国信证券认为，今年无人物流车开始进入规模化商用阶段，快递"最后一公里"成为其最先落地的应用场 景。通过无人物流车替代司机人力，快递公司进一步打开降本空间。预计顺丰和中通作为快递市场的领 头羊，其今年有望各引进几千辆的无人物流车，相比去年几百辆的量级，无人物流车呈现放量趋势。 末端配送成本占到物流总成本超30%，且随着人力成本持续上升，无人配送需求日益迫切。日前举行的 2025全球智慧物流峰会无人车论坛上透露了一组数据：截至2025年9月，中国3600个区县中，超1900个 已支持无人车上路，占比过半，政策支持范围仍在持续扩大。 ...

Summary of the Unmanned Logistics Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The unmanned logistics vehicle industry is on the brink of commercialization, with leading companies like New Stone seeing significant delivery volume growth. The application scenarios have expanded from specific areas to open roads, indicating that the business model is beginning to take shape. However, large-scale expansion may impact employment levels [2][4]. Key Insights - **Cost Reduction in Smart Driving Hardware**: The average price of LiDAR has decreased significantly, and the large-scale procurement of domain controllers has further reduced costs. This has facilitated the landing of orders for thousands of unmanned logistics vehicles, accelerating the commercialization process. However, future price reduction potential may be limited [2][7][8]. - **Commercialization Pathway**: The commercialization pathway for unmanned logistics vehicles has evolved from VC investment to involvement from national teams and global capital. The profit model has shifted from hardware sales to positioning services, operational sharing, and data monetization, with gross margins increasing from 25% on hardware to 60% on services [2][10]. - **End-Stage Unmanned Logistics**: The end-stage unmanned logistics sector has become a pioneering field due to its lower complexity and higher environmental openness. Key application scenarios include ports, logistics parks, mining areas, and last-mile logistics, with cost per delivery dropping by at least 40% and labor savings of 80%-90% [2][12][13]. - **Rapid Growth in Smart Warehousing**: The smart warehousing sector is expected to reach a market size of 135 billion yuan by 2025, with a current automation solution penetration rate of only about 20%. The sales of unmanned forklifts continue to grow rapidly, indicating significant future potential [2][18]. Additional Important Points - **Development History**: The unmanned logistics industry has over ten years of development, with significant milestones including JD's first unmanned delivery vehicle in 2016 and the first regular operation of drones by Suning in 2017. The industry is now moving towards full commercialization, supported by government policies [3][11]. - **Policy Support**: Policy support is crucial for the development of low-speed unmanned logistics tools. Vehicles like unmanned mining trucks and sanitation vehicles are more likely to receive policy backing due to their operational characteristics and government demand [3][25]. - **Market Projections**: The urban last-mile delivery market is projected to reach nearly 100 billion yuan by 2030, representing a tenfold increase from 2025. The logistics delivery market is expected to grow from 21.8 billion yuan to 141.6 billion yuan, indicating a growth rate of 5-7 times [15]. - **Challenges**: The unmanned logistics industry faces challenges such as the maturity of technology and market penetration rates. The potential for large-scale labor replacement remains uncertain, particularly in warehouse settings where workers are typically younger [24]. - **Company Developments**: Key players in the unmanned forklift sector include: - **Blue Arrow Intelligent**: Focused on smart logistics solutions, with significant order growth. - **Zhongli Co.**: Expected to exceed 1,000 units in unmanned forklift sales this year. - **Hangcha**: Anticipates AGV order amounts exceeding 600 million yuan this year. - **Heli**: Aims for substantial revenue growth through smart logistics investments [20][22]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the unmanned logistics industry, highlighting its current state, future prospects, and the challenges it faces.

Group 1 - The industry of unmanned logistics is moving towards full commercialization, transitioning from an exploratory phase (2010-2016) and a breakthrough phase (2016-2023) to a stage of comprehensive commercialization since 2024 [1] - Unmanned delivery vehicles are expanding their application scenarios from specific areas to fully open roads, with leading tech and logistics companies beginning large-scale production, targeting fleet sizes in the thousands [1] Group 2 - The costs of key components such as lidar and domain controllers have dropped to commercial thresholds, driven by technological iterations and scale production, leading to significant reductions in overall logistics costs [2] - The average operating costs of logistics using unmanned vehicles have decreased by 40%, while efficiency has increased by 60% [2] Group 3 - The unmanned vehicle market is entering a high-growth phase, with explosive growth expected in overall market size [3] - By 2025 and 2030, innovative application services in areas like automated taxis and logistics delivery are projected to create additional value of 525 billion and 7,459 billion respectively [3] - Unmanned forklifts are becoming a new cornerstone in unmanned logistics warehousing, significantly reducing labor costs and enhancing warehouse operational efficiency [3] - Automation in forklift operations is becoming a crucial strategy for companies to reduce costs and increase efficiency, with a notable example being the cost-effectiveness of automating a 3,000 square meter warehouse [3]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic cooperation between Youjia Innovation, Shenzhen Post, and Eastern Public Transport focuses on the systematic layout of "logistics + public transport" to enhance the utilization of public resources [1][3][4] Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - The partnership is characterized by complementary strengths and a broad scope for collaboration, aiming for long-term, mutually beneficial relationships [1][3] - The cooperation will advance in four main directions: integration of unmanned logistics vehicles with public transport scenarios, composite utilization of bus station spaces, cross-scenario business expansion, and collaborative innovation in labor employment [3] Group 2: Technological and Operational Innovations - Youjia Innovation leverages its L1-L4 autonomous driving technology and pre-production experience to create a smarter, safer, and more efficient delivery model [3] - The collaboration aims to innovate the integration mechanism of urban delivery systems and public transport networks, reducing redundant costs in warehousing and transportation [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - This partnership marks Youjia Innovation's entry into the unmanned logistics sector, promoting efficient resource utilization and upgrading public services [4] - The company plans to continue contributing to the development of a more efficient urban operational ecosystem through technology and product innovation [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [1]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Tieda Technology, is positioned as a premium supplier in the rail transit signal monitoring industry, with a strong focus on innovation and technology development. It has established a comprehensive range of products and services in the rail transit sector, including monitoring systems and intelligent operation management systems [9][14]. - The rail transit industry is experiencing robust growth, supported by national policies aimed at enhancing transportation infrastructure. Additionally, the unmanned logistics vehicle sector is anticipated to witness explosive growth, with market forecasts suggesting a significant increase in scale by 2030 [9][40]. - Tieda Technology has made strategic investments in the robotics and unmanned logistics sectors, positioning itself to capitalize on emerging opportunities in these high-potential markets [9][56]. Summary by Sections 1. Tieda Technology: A Premium Supplier in Rail Transit Signal Monitoring - The company has over 30 years of experience in the rail transit signal field, providing a range of products and services, including monitoring systems and intelligent operation management systems [14]. - Tieda Technology has achieved steady revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5% from 2021 to 2024, and a net profit CAGR of 23.9% during the same period [21]. 2. The Rail Transit Industry and Unmanned Logistics - The rail transit equipment industry is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to reach 1,121.2 billion yuan by 2025, driven by ongoing infrastructure development [47]. - The unmanned logistics vehicle market is forecasted to grow from 6.3 billion yuan in 2024 to 933.4 billion yuan by 2030, indicating a substantial increase in demand and market penetration [51]. 3. Strategic Investments in Robotics and Unmanned Logistics - Tieda Technology has established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Huto Intelligent, to invest in cutting-edge fields such as autonomous driving and intelligent logistics [9][56]. - The company has invested in Bear Robot, a leading provider of low-speed autonomous driving solutions, further enhancing its capabilities in the unmanned logistics sector [9][56]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts Tieda Technology's revenue to reach 3.36 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.93%. The net profit is expected to be 740 million yuan, with an EPS of 0.54 yuan [1][9].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **unmanned logistics vehicle industry**, focusing on its rapid development and commercialization potential in China, particularly in urban delivery scenarios [1][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Application Scope**: Unmanned logistics vehicles are primarily used for last-mile delivery and short-distance branch transportation, with potential applications extending to food delivery, retail, and fresh produce [2][4]. - **Commercialization Factors**: Key factors for large-scale deployment include: - **Wide Application Range**: Applicable beyond logistics to retail and other sectors [4]. - **Simple Operating Environment**: Less complex than traditional logistics and Robotaxi operations [4]. - **Mature Commercial Conditions**: Supportive policies, technological advancements, and significant cost reductions (e.g., new model priced at 19,800 yuan) [4][7]. - **Market Growth**: The domestic unmanned logistics vehicle market is expected to see sales surpassing 30,000 units by 2025 and potentially exceeding 800,000 units by 2030, with a market size exceeding 10 billion yuan [10]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Cost Structure**: The operating costs of unmanned logistics vehicles are lower due to optimized components and simplified structures, although profitability will likely depend on software services rather than vehicle sales alone [8]. - **Labor Cost Trends**: Rising labor costs (from 17,000 yuan in 2019 to 23,000 yuan by 2025) and increasing logistics demand (projected to reach 361 trillion yuan in 2024) create a favorable environment for unmanned logistics vehicles to fill labor gaps in the industry [9]. - **Beneficiaries in the Supply Chain**: Key beneficiaries include upstream component suppliers (e.g., Nvidia, Horizon Robotics) and chassis manufacturers, as well as startups closely collaborating with major e-commerce platforms [11][13]. - **Innovative Products and Collaborations**: Notable startups like Jiushi Intelligent and New Stone have launched products targeting the logistics sector and formed partnerships with major players like China Post and SF Express [12]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on component suppliers with platform capabilities and strong ties to leading unmanned logistics companies, such as: - Domain controller suppliers like Xiaoma Zhixing and Jingwei Hengrun - Chassis suppliers like Asia Pacific Holdings and Wanlang Magnetic Plastic [13].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][16] Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector is focusing on luxury vehicles and unmanned logistics, with a recommendation to pay attention to leading companies such as BYD, Geely, and Xiaomi for overall vehicle production, and to Seres and Li Auto for luxury vehicles [3][4] - The robotaxi segment has experienced significant adjustments, primarily influenced by trading factors rather than fundamental issues, with a focus on the upcoming operational effects of Tesla's robotaxi on June 12 [4][5] - The low-altitude economy is highlighted, particularly the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) sector, which is expected to shift from being part of unmanned logistics to an independent market leader if relevant policies are implemented in June [6] Summary by Sections Automotive Sector - The report emphasizes the ongoing pressure in the domestic market and the increasing competition, suggesting a focus on leading automotive companies and luxury vehicle manufacturers [4][3] - Key companies to watch include BYD, Geely, Xiaomi, Seres, and Li Auto [4] Robotaxi and Robotics - The report notes a significant adjustment in the robotaxi market, with a focus on the upcoming Tesla robotaxi operations and the potential for new market trends [4][5] - Recommendations include focusing on large-cap stocks related to Tesla and companies with strong industrial logic and future potential [5] Low-altitude Economy - The report suggests that the UAV sector is poised for growth, particularly if low-altitude policies are enacted, with a focus on companies like Zongheng and Green Energy Hui充 [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a fluctuating upward trend in May 2025, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 5.29% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 1.63% [4][5] - The average daily trading volume of the Hong Kong Stock Connect decreased by 23.9% to HKD 138.2 billion in May 2025 compared to April 2025 [4] - Cumulative net inflow of southbound funds reached HKD 651 billion by May 31, 2025, accounting for 81% of the total net inflow for the entire year of 2024 [6] Group 2: Industry Insights - In the coal mining sector, domestic and Mongolian coking coal prices have approached cost lines, with domestic prices dropping from CNY 1,520 per ton at the end of 2024 to CNY 1,270 per ton by May 30, 2025, a decline of 16.4% [21][25] - The demand for coking coal has weakened, with a year-on-year decrease in apparent demand for major steel products by 3.3% as of May 23, 2025 [23] - The fourth-generation residential projects are gaining traction, with over 70 new projects expected to be launched in various cities, driven by policies promoting improved living standards [27][28] Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - The report on Minglida (301268.SZ) indicates that the company is expected to see a significant increase in overseas automotive customer orders in 2025, marking a turning point in its operations [45] - Citic Bank (601998.SH) has received approval to establish an Asset Investment Company (AIC), enhancing its capabilities in equity investment and supporting the real economy [50][52] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 41.58 billion, CNY 56.63 billion, and CNY 72.46 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of CNY 1.85 billion, CNY 3.90 billion, and CNY 6.73 billion [45]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **unmanned logistics vehicle industry**, focusing on the issuance of vehicle licenses and operational policies across different cities in China [1][2][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - **License Issuance Variability**: The number of unmanned logistics vehicle licenses issued varies by city, influenced by local industrial support. The Yangtze River Delta region is expected to have a higher number of licenses, while emerging cities are gradually opening up [1][2]. - **Conservative vs. Progressive Cities**: Beijing and Guangzhou are relatively conservative regarding road rights for unmanned logistics vehicles, while Shanghai and Shenzhen are more proactive, with Shenzhen leading in route openness and policy support [1][2]. - **Application Scenarios**: Unmanned logistics vehicles are utilized in various scenarios, including express delivery and fresh produce distribution, with each accounting for approximately 20% of the application landscape [1][7]. - **Mainstream Product**: The "Wufangche" (Five-cubic-meter vehicle) is highlighted as the mainstream product, capable of carrying 500-600 packages, with a range of 130 km when fully loaded and 180 km when empty [1][11]. - **Operational Efficiency**: Unmanned logistics vehicles can reduce costs by 15%-20% in certain scenarios, making them attractive to logistics companies despite their slower speed compared to traditional vehicles [2][23]. Additional Important Content - **Fault Rate**: The average fault rate for unmanned logistics vehicles is 1.5 times per 10,000 km, which is considered acceptable [1][14]. - **Business Model**: The primary business model in the market is hardware sales combined with service fees, with major manufacturers moving away from direct leasing to selling hardware and charging for software services [1][16]. - **Competition Landscape**: The industry is competitive, with several manufacturers targeting similar customer bases but employing different strategies. Product homogeneity is high, with a focus on achieving L4 level autonomous driving [1][18][19]. - **Government Support**: Local governments are generally supportive of the unmanned logistics industry, with over 150 cities having issued management measures for logistics and low-speed vehicles [2][32]. - **Future Prospects**: The future of the unmanned logistics vehicle industry will depend on technological advancements and the ability to achieve stable and cost-effective operational models [1][20]. Conclusion The unmanned logistics vehicle industry is evolving with varying levels of government support and operational challenges. The focus on cost reduction, efficiency, and technological advancements will be crucial for future growth and market penetration.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The industry of unmanned logistics vehicles is entering a rapid growth phase, supported by policy initiatives and cost optimization, with commercial viability being validated [8][12] - The market for unmanned logistics vehicles is projected to reach a scale of 6000 units in application by 2024, with significant growth expected in 2025 [11] - The annual freight scale of road logistics in China is estimated at 7 trillion yuan, indicating a substantial market opportunity for automated driving service subscriptions [17] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Entering 1-10 Phase: Policy Support and Cost Optimization - Road rights are being accelerated for opening, leading to a significant increase in operational scale, with over 100 cities granted public road rights for unmanned logistics vehicles [9][11] - Cost optimization is being achieved through improved management efficiency and pricing strategies, with examples showing a reduction in operational costs by up to 40% [13][12] 2. Trillion Yuan Market Space, Leading Manufacturers Strengthening Channel Operations and Multi-Scenario Development - The market for automated driving service subscriptions could reach nearly 500 billion yuan annually, with major players actively expanding both domestically and internationally [17][18] - Leading companies are diversifying their applications beyond traditional logistics to include security, sanitation, and retail delivery, with significant order growth reported [18][19] 3. Investment Recommendations and Related Targets - The report suggests focusing on companies with operational capabilities or relevant scenarios, as well as upstream core components and algorithm platform companies [19][20] - Recommended companies include logistics operators such as Kaile Co., China Post Technology, and Tongxingbao, as well as component and algorithm platform firms like Jingwei Hengrun and Wanjitech [20]