国科军工首次覆盖报告 公 司 研 究 固体发动机与弹药双轮驱动，军民融合释放成长潜力 国科军工(688543) | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宋博(分析师) | 010-83939829 | songbo3@gtht.com | S0880522120007 | | 杨天昊(分析师) | 010-83939791 | yangtianhao@gtht.com | S0880523080010 | 本报告导读： 公司是国内重要的固体动力与弹药系统供应商。受益于国防预算提升、弹药补库等， 公司军品业务放量确定性较强；军用技术向民用领域延伸，叠加持续加大的研发与 产研一体化投入，推动产品体系完善与盈利能力上行，长期成长空间逐步打开。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 1,040 | 1,204 | 1, ...

汽零业务稳健，布局机器人和低空新赛道 富维股份(600742) 富维股份首次覆盖 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | 本报告导读： 汽零主业保持稳健增长；同时布局人形机器人和低空经济领域业务 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 20,766 | 19,636 | 20,872 | 22,062 | 23,165 | | (+/-)% | 4.0% | -5.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | | 净利润(归母) | 521 | 509 | 630 | 699 | 775 | | (+/-)% | -4.4% | -2.3% | 23.8% | 10.9% | 10 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto [2][6]. Core Views - Li Auto's profitability in Q3 2025 was impacted by the Mega recall, but the company is expected to benefit from accelerated technology iterations and strong intelligent features [2]. - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down to 111.68 billion RMB, with net profit forecasted at 1.704 billion RMB [10]. - The company is transitioning back to a "startup" management model to adapt to its growth phase and industry environment [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 123.85 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 173.5%. However, a decline of 22.7% is expected in 2025 [4]. - Gross profit for 2023 is estimated at 27.497 billion RMB, with a significant increase of 681.7% year-on-year [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 11.704 billion RMB in 2023, but is expected to drop to 1.704 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a decrease of 78.8% [4]. Market Data - The current stock price is 72.55 HKD, with a market capitalization of 155.321 billion HKD [6][7]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of 68.65 to 128.70 HKD [7]. Delivery and Revenue Expectations - In Q3 2025, the company delivered 93,000 vehicles, a decrease of 39% year-on-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter [10]. - For Q4 2025, vehicle deliveries are expected to be between 100,000 and 110,000 units, representing a year-on-year decline of 31% to 37% [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is actively exploring applications in the general robotics and Robotaxi/Robovan markets, with impressive order progress [2]. - The third quarter performance in the general robotics business was outstanding, leading to an upward revision of EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to -0.28, 0.13, and 0.83 RMB respectively [9]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 43.36, based on a 6x PS for 2026, reflecting the company's growth potential despite current profit margins not being stable [9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows (in million RMB): - 2024A: 1,649 - 2025E: 2,104 - 2026E: 3,236 - 2027E: 4,914 - Growth rates are 47%, 28%, 54%, and 52% respectively [4]. - Gross profit and net profit forecasts are: - Gross profit for 2024A: 284 million RMB, with a projected increase to 1,374 million RMB by 2027E. - Net profit is expected to turn positive by 2026E, reaching 404 million RMB by 2027E [4]. - The company reported a net loss of 1.0 billion RMB in Q3 2025, with a net profit margin of -24.57% [9]. Market Position and Developments - The company has successfully secured significant contracts with major automotive manufacturers, including a leading new energy vehicle company and a global SUV and pickup manufacturer [9]. - The Robotaxi business is expected to see a trend of multiple laser radar applications per vehicle, with a recent partnership with Didi for a new model featuring ten laser radars [9]. - The company delivered 35,500 laser radars in Q3, marking a substantial year-on-year increase, and has become a preferred perception solution for several autonomous delivery developers [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company, with a target price of 37.40 CNY [5][11]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a revenue of 58.38 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.54%. However, its profitability is under short-term pressure, with a net profit of 4.25 billion CNY, down 3.10% year-on-year [2][11]. - The company is actively expanding into emerging business areas such as humanoid robots, which is expected to create a second growth curve beyond its automotive business [2][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 40.03 billion CNY in 2023 to 91.55 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.4% [4][12]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly from 540 million CNY in 2023 to 703 million CNY in 2025, with a remarkable growth rate of 1,139.2% in 2024 [4][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.12 CNY in 2023 to 1.51 CNY in 2025 [4][12]. Business Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 22.09 billion CNY, up 4.47% year-on-year, but the net profit decreased by 19.10% year-on-year to 1.48 billion CNY [11]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 15.45%, down 5.05 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to initial production phases of some projects and competitive pricing in the market [11]. Emerging Business Development - The company is focusing on building capabilities in automotive connectors and humanoid robots, aiming to enhance market competitiveness through integrated supply capabilities [11]. - A dedicated R&D team of over 100 members has been established to develop high-voltage connectors and integrated solutions for electric vehicle systems, indicating a strategic shift towards innovation and technology advancement [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 45.07 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company reported steady revenue growth in its Q3 2025 results, with a year-on-year increase of 19.4% in total revenue, reaching 1 billion CNY. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 100 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% [12]. - The company is actively advancing its liquid cooling business, which is expected to open a second growth curve. It has developed products in line with OCP (Open Compute Project) standards for data centers, including the UQD (Universal Quick Disconnect) product [12][11]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 23.2%, showing slight recovery compared to previous periods, indicating strong pricing power and cost control capabilities [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.452 billion CNY, 1.835 billion CNY, and 2.291 billion CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 17.0%, 26.3%, and 24.8% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 142 million CNY in 2025, 195 million CNY in 2026, and 271 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 16.2%, 36.9%, and 38.9% respectively [4]. - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with total assets of 2.579 billion CNY and shareholder equity of 1.980 billion CNY projected for 2025 [13]. Business Development - The company has established a subsidiary, Sulian Zhikong, to independently develop liquid cooling products for energy storage and computing thermal management, further diversifying its business [12]. - A partnership with the Chongqing government has been initiated, involving an investment of 201 million CNY to build a smart computing liquid cooling R&D center and a battery thermal management system production base [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baolong Technology [2][5]. Core Views - The report expresses optimism about the overseas market prospects for Baolong Technology's intelligent suspension systems, despite the company's performance being under pressure in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 5,897 million, with a growth rate of 23.4%. Revenue is expected to reach 7,025 million in 2024, 8,390 million in 2025, 9,903 million in 2026, and 11,541 million in 2027, with growth rates of 19.1%, 19.4%, 18.0%, and 16.5% respectively [4][12]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 379 million in 2023, decreasing to 303 million in 2024, then recovering to 343 million in 2025, 493 million in 2026, and 698 million in 2027, with respective growth rates of 76.9%, -20.1%, 13.4%, 43.5%, and 41.8% [4][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.77 in 2023, dropping to 1.42 in 2024, and then rising to 1.61 in 2025, 2.31 in 2026, and 3.27 in 2027 [4][12]. Market Data - The target price for Baolong Technology is set at 44.98 yuan, with a current market capitalization of 8,042 million [5][6]. - The stock has traded within a range of 33.98 to 52.50 yuan over the past 52 weeks [6]. Strategic Developments - Baolong Technology has formed a strategic partnership with Weifu High-Tech to enhance its full active suspension systems, indicating a deepening focus on intelligent suspension technology [11]. - The company has secured multiple overseas contracts for its intelligent suspension products, including a significant contract for a high-end luxury SUV model [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Co., Ltd. (China National Heavy Duty Truck) with a target price of 23.47 CNY [6][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase driven by the domestic vehicle replacement policy, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 20.6% for the first three quarters of 2025 [2][13]. - China National Heavy Duty Truck continues to lead in heavy truck exports, achieving a 24.5% year-on-year increase in export volume for the first nine months of 2025 [13]. - The company is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, supported by strong domestic sales and export performance, with projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 1.33, 1.40, and 1.74 CNY respectively [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 42,070 million CNY, with a growth rate of 46.0% [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1,080 million CNY in 2023, reflecting a substantial increase of 405.5% [5]. - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to be 7.6% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 4.0% [14]. Market Performance - The stock has a 52-week price range of 15.93 to 20.59 CNY, with a current price of 18.14 CNY [7][13]. - The market capitalization stands at 21,312 million CNY [7]. - The company has a net asset return rate (ROE) of 6.8% for 2025, indicating a positive trend [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 24.34 CNY [5][12][14] Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with revenue and sales continuing to recover despite short-term disruptions from impairment provisions. The results reflect ongoing reforms and partnerships, particularly with Huawei, which are expected to provide new growth avenues [2][12] - The new management team has clarified the positioning of various business segments and is accelerating internal reforms while actively pursuing external collaborations, which is anticipated to help the company gradually overcome challenges and reverse its revenue and performance trends [12][14] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 744.705 billion CNY, with a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year. Revenue is expected to decline by 15.7% in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 4.7%, 8.1%, and 8.6% in the subsequent years [4][13] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 14.106 billion CNY in 2023, with a significant drop of 88.2% in 2024, followed by a substantial recovery of 536.7% in 2025 [4][13] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is adjusted to 0.92 CNY, with further projections of 1.21 CNY and 1.49 CNY for 2026 and 2027 respectively [12][14] Sales and Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 469 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 9%. The net profit for the same period was 81 billion CNY, up 17.3% year-on-year [12] - The company sold 3.19 million vehicles in the first nine months of 2025, marking a 20.5% increase compared to the previous year [12] Strategic Developments - The company launched its first model under the Huawei partnership, the H5, on September 23, 2025, which is expected to enhance its marketing, distribution, and technological capabilities [12][14] - The introduction of popular new models under its own brand, such as the MG4, has contributed positively to sales performance [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 41.46 CNY [6][13]. Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 26.37 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and net profit of 3.29 billion CNY, up 35.4% year-on-year [2][13]. - The company achieved a remarkable Q3 performance with revenue of 10.24 billion CNY, reflecting a 32.3% year-on-year increase and a 5.4% quarter-on-quarter increase, while net profit surged to 1.36 billion CNY, up 79.0% year-on-year [13]. - The company has maintained its technological leadership, receiving international recognition, including seven awards at the 2025 Bus World Expo in Belgium [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 27.04 billion CNY in 2023 to 56.57 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.0% from 2024 to 2025 [5][14]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.82 billion CNY in 2023 to 7.28 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 31.2% from 2024 to 2025 [5][14]. - The company's gross margin improved to 22.4% in the first three quarters of 2025, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin reached 12.8%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [13]. Market Performance - The stock has a market capitalization of 67.55 billion CNY, with a 52-week price range of 21.43 to 31.66 CNY [7]. - The stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 37.17 in 2023 to 9.27 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [5][14]. Competitive Position - The company is recognized as a leader in the bus manufacturing sector, particularly in the new energy bus market, with a significant increase in overseas sales, which accounted for 38.59% of total sales in Q3 2025 [13].