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豪能股份(603809):中报业绩稳健,积极布局减速器产能
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-09-18 08:16
股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.09.18 中报业绩稳健,积极布局减速器产能 豪能股份(603809) | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | 石佳艺(分析师) | 021-38676666 | shijiayi@gtht.com | S0880525070001 | 本报告导读: | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 1,946 | 2,360 | 2,922 | 3,524 | 4,201 | | (+/-)% | 32.2% | 21.3% | 23.8% | 20.6% | 19.2% | | 净利润(归母) | 182 | 322 | 433 | 543 | 669 ...
国博电子(688375):星载领域进展显著,Q2环比大幅改善
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-09-16 11:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 90.00 CNY, while the current price is 76.10 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company experienced a decline in performance in the first half of 2025 due to delays in revenue recognition in traditional sectors, but achieved significant growth in Q2, with a notable increase in gross and net profit margins. The company has made substantial progress in the low Earth orbit satellite and commercial aerospace sectors, with multiple T/R component products beginning to be delivered to customers [2][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 3.6 billion CNY, with a decrease to 2.6 billion CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 2.8 billion CNY in 2025, and further growth to 3.2 billion CNY in 2026 and 3.7 billion CNY in 2027. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 600 million CNY in 2025, increasing to 800 million CNY by 2027 [4][12]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 is reported at 39.11%, an increase of 3.97 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is at 18.81%, showing a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points year-on-year [11]. Segment Performance - In the first half of 2025, the T/R component segment saw a year-on-year decline of 19.27%, while the RF chip business revenue was 91 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.72%. Other chip business revenue was 22 million CNY, down 18.42% year-on-year [11]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is positioned as a leader in the active phased array T/R component sector, focusing on high-frequency and high-density applications. It has successfully expanded its market presence in low Earth orbit satellites and commercial aerospace, with several products already delivered to customers, marking a new growth point for the company [11]. - The company has also made significant advancements in RF integrated circuits, achieving large-scale supply in the domestic 4G and 5G mobile communication sectors, and is beginning to establish a comprehensive product line for satellite communication and sensing systems [11]. Valuation and Comparables - The report suggests a valuation based on a 90 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, aligning with the average valuation of comparable companies in the industry [11][13].
上汽集团(600104):改革成果落地,尚界首款车型值得期待
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-09-03 12:34
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 24.34 CNY [5][12]. Core Views - The company's 2025 mid-term report meets expectations, showing continuous improvement in revenue and net profit excluding non-recurring items, with reform results gradually materializing. The first model under the Huawei partnership is set to launch, which is expected to provide new momentum for sales growth [2][12]. - The company has achieved a 12.1% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q2 2025, reaching 158.7 billion CNY, while the cumulative sales volume for the first half of the year is 2.053 million units, up 12.4% year-on-year [12]. - The new brand "SAIC 尚界" is actively promoting its first model, with plans for two additional models to expand market coverage [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 744.705 billion CNY, with a forecasted increase to 836.451 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 15.3% [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from 1.666 billion CNY in 2024 to 18.178 billion CNY by 2027, indicating a significant rebound [4][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.03 CNY in 2025, increasing to 1.58 CNY by 2027 [4][12]. Market Performance - The stock has a 52-week price range of 11.55 CNY to 21.04 CNY, with a current price of 18.95 CNY [6][12]. - The company's market capitalization stands at 217.836 billion CNY [6]. - The stock has shown a 57% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the index by 19% [10].
一汽解放(000800):重卡龙头,出海带动增量市场
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-09-03 12:34
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of 8.69 CNY, compared to the current price of 7.17 CNY [5]. Core Views - The domestic heavy truck market is recovering, and the continuous growth in overseas markets is expected to enhance the profitability of the company [2]. - The company is a leading player in China's commercial vehicle sector, with a projected net profit of 523 million CNY in 2025, increasing to 2.769 billion CNY by 2027 [11]. - The company is expected to sell 250,000 vehicles in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, with a market share of 26.6% in the medium and heavy truck segment [11]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas presence, responding to the "Belt and Road" initiative, and aims to establish subsidiaries in eight countries to support its international strategy [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 64.325 billion CNY in 2023, decreasing to 58.581 billion CNY in 2024, and then gradually increasing to 68.167 billion CNY by 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 806 million CNY in 2023 to 622 million CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 2.769 billion CNY in 2027 [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.16 CNY in 2023, dropping to 0.13 CNY in 2024, and then increasing to 0.56 CNY by 2027 [4]. Sales and Profitability Forecast - The average selling price of commercial vehicles is expected to remain stable from 2025 to 2027, while sales volume is projected to decline by 5% in 2025 but recover with a 10% growth in 2026 and 2027 [13]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve from 6.27% in 2024 to 9.92% by 2027, driven by cost control and increased sales [14]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong position in the natural gas heavy truck market, with a projected sales volume of 57,000 units in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [11]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has a dominant position in the domestic heavy truck market, having maintained the top market share for nine consecutive years [11]. - The company is recognized for its strong product capabilities, with advanced manufacturing standards in its engine and transmission systems [11]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting that while the company faces challenges from industry competition, its vertical integration and product strength provide a competitive edge [11].
德赛西威(002920):中报业绩亮眼,出海布局加速
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-27 09:18
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 138.61 CNY [5][12]. Core Insights - The company reported strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 14.64 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.22 billion CNY, up 46% year-on-year [12]. - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion and product iteration in smart cockpit and smart driving domains, aiming to replicate its domestic electric and intelligent products in global markets [2][12]. - The company launched its fifth-generation smart cockpit platform, which has garnered attention from top global OEMs and secured new project orders from Li Auto [12]. - The establishment of overseas branches in key regions such as Germany, France, Spain, Japan, and Singapore has been completed, enhancing supply chain resilience and delivery capabilities [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 21.91 billion CNY in 2023 to 50.09 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.2% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.55 billion CNY in 2023 to 4.43 billion CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of 25.9% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 2.79 CNY in 2023 to 7.97 CNY in 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 19.5% in 2023 to 27.2% in 2027 [4]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 69.31 billion CNY, with a 52-week stock price range of 85.30 to 140.19 CNY [6]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 44.81, expected to decrease to 15.67 by 2027 [4][6].
小鹏汽车-w(09868):25Q2毛利率创历史新高,经营质量持续优化
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-21 08:59
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][10]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high gross margin in Q2 2025, with a significant reduction in net loss compared to previous periods. The acceleration of product iterations and the launch of new models with enhanced intelligence features support the "Accumulate" rating [2][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 30.676 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 14%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 90.863 billion RMB, reflecting a 122% increase. The gross profit is forecasted to be 14.992 billion RMB in 2025, with a net loss of 1 billion RMB [4][12]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 reached 17.3%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year and 1.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The automotive sales gross margin was 14.3%, up 8.0 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Delivery and Sales Performance - In Q2 2025, the company delivered 103,000 vehicles, marking a historical high and a year-on-year increase of 242%. The average revenue per vehicle was 164,000 RMB, up 1,100 RMB from the previous quarter [10]. Product Development and Market Strategy - The company is actively enhancing its product lineup, with several new models launched in 2025, including the G6, G9, and Mona M03 Max. The introduction of the "dual-energy" vehicle cycle is expected to drive sales growth [10][12]. - A partnership with Volkswagen has been expanded to include collaboration on fuel and plug-in hybrid vehicle platforms, which is anticipated to boost service revenue [10]. Future Outlook - For Q3 2025, the company expects vehicle deliveries to range between 113,000 and 118,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 143% to 154%. Total revenue is projected to reach between 19.6 billion and 21 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 94% to 108% [10].
零跑汽车(09863):2025 年中期业绩点评:25H1交付量与毛利率创历史新高,净利润转正
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-20 03:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor [2][6][10] Core Views - Leap Motor's mid-2025 performance is impressive, with significant revenue growth and a return to profitability for the first half of the year. The company is expected to benefit from new vehicle launches and accelerated overseas market expansion [2][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 16,747 million RMB, increasing to 32,164 million RMB in 2024, and reaching 65,268 million RMB by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 35%, 92%, and 103% respectively [4][13]. - Gross profit is expected to rise from 80 million RMB in 2023 to 2,694 million RMB in 2024, and further to 9,333 million RMB in 2025 [4][13]. - Net profit is forecasted to turn positive in 2025, with estimates of 1,267 million RMB, following losses of 4,216 million RMB in 2023 and 2,821 million RMB in 2024 [4][13]. Performance Highlights - In the first half of 2025, Leap Motor achieved a revenue of 24.25 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 174%, and a net profit of 30 million RMB, marking the first half-year profit for the company [10]. - The company delivered 222,000 vehicles in the first half of 2025, a 155.7% increase year-on-year, leading the sales among new energy vehicle brands in China [10]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 14.1%, up 13.0 percentage points year-on-year, indicating significant improvement in profitability [10]. Market Position and Strategy - Leap Motor ranked first among new energy vehicle brands in terms of export volume, with 20,375 units exported in the first half of 2025 [10]. - The company is accelerating its global product rollout, with the first batch of B10 models set to launch in Europe in September 2025 [10]. - Leap Motor plans to establish a localized manufacturing base in Europe by the end of 2026, enhancing its global supply chain [10].
春风动力(603129):中报表现亮眼,三大业务不断向上
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-14 06:59
Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5] Core Views - The company's mid-year performance is impressive, with all three major business lines showing growth. The all-terrain vehicles and motorcycles are benefiting from product upgrades, leading to stable growth, while the electric two-wheelers are entering a harvest phase, providing a new growth curve [2][13] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 12,110 million, with a growth rate of 6.4%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 29,800 million, reflecting a growth rate of 21.1% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,008 million in 2023, increasing to 2,925 million by 2027, with a growth rate of 19.6% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 6.60 in 2023 to 19.17 in 2027 [4] Business Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 98.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.9%, and a net profit of 10.02 billion, up 41.35% [13] - The all-terrain vehicle segment sold 101,800 units, generating revenue of 4.731 billion, a growth of 33.95%. The motorcycle segment sold 150,300 units, with revenue of 3.346 billion, a growth of 3.03%. The electric two-wheelers saw explosive growth, with sales of 250,500 units and revenue of 872 million, a staggering increase of 652% [13] Target Price and Valuation - The target price has been raised to 329.50 yuan, up from 226.47 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 25 times for 2025 [13] - The company is positioned as a leader in both two-wheeled and four-wheeled vehicles, with a global layout that continues to deliver results [13]
涛涛车业(301345):与宇树科技达成战略合作,开辟增长新曲线
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-01 11:46
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 181.20 CNY [4]. Core Views - The strategic partnership between the company and Yushu Technology aims to create a "channel + technology" collaborative model, which is expected to accelerate the deployment of robotic products in North America and expand consumer-level applications and product development, forming a new growth curve [2][11]. - The company has raised its EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 6.01, 7.55, and 9.26 CNY respectively, and has adjusted the target price to 174.29 CNY based on a 29x PE ratio for 2025, maintaining the "Accumulate" rating [11]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,144 million CNY, with a growth rate of 21.4%. By 2027, the revenue is expected to reach 5,801 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 22.3% [12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 280 million CNY, with a growth rate of 36.1%. The net profit is expected to increase to 1,005 million CNY by 2027, with a growth rate of 22.5% [12]. - The company’s net asset return rate is projected to rise from 9.5% in 2023 to 22.8% in 2027 [12]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 17,070 million CNY, with a 52-week stock price range of 43.04 to 161.35 CNY [5]. - The current stock price is 157.14 CNY, with a price-to-book ratio of 5.3 and a net debt ratio of -37.04% [6][11]. Strategic Initiatives - The partnership focuses on three main areas: joint exploration of overseas sales, collaborative research on consumer-level applications, and enhancing commercialization efficiency [11]. - The company is advancing its global production capacity with a manufacturing system that integrates China, Southeast Asia, and North America, enhancing its risk resistance capabilities [11].
德昌电机控股(00179):携手上海机电进军人形机器人关节领域
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-07-29 12:07
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6][10]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company, 德昌电机控股, has formed a joint venture with 上海机电 to enter the humanoid robot joint market, leveraging decades of collaboration to enhance efficiency in this sector [2][10]. - The company is expected to face revenue pressure in the first quarter of the 2025-2026 fiscal year, with a reported revenue decline of 2% year-on-year to $915 million [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections are as follows: - 2025A: $3,815 million - 2026E: $3,751 million - 2027E: $4,096 million - 2028E: $4,475 million - The revenue growth rates are projected at 5%, -4%, 3%, 9%, and 9% respectively [4]. - Gross profit and net profit forecasts are: - Gross profit for 2025A: $851 million, with a projected increase to $1,029 million by 2028E - Net profit for 2025A: $263 million, expected to grow to $355 million by 2028E, reflecting growth rates of 15%, 7%, 15%, and 10% respectively [4][10]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 5.57 for 2025A, increasing to 8.44 by 2028E, while the PB ratio is expected to rise from 0.51 to 0.83 over the same period [4]. Market Data - The current stock price is HKD 25.40, with a 52-week price range of HKD 10.00 to HKD 26.00 [6][7]. - The current market capitalization is approximately HKD 23,734 million [7]. Investment Recommendation - The report maintains a positive outlook on the long-term development prospects of 德昌电机控股 in the humanoid robot components manufacturing sector, with a target price set at HKD 30.61 based on a 13x PE for the fiscal year 2025 [10].