国泰海通晨报 2026 年 03 月 24 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 技术积淀深厚。数据中心产品高速增长，CW 激光器芯片受到广泛认可。 2、【固定收益研究】：三条新线索：固收+基金的边际变化、权益主线切换与宽松预期扰动 3、【农林牧渔研究】农业：养殖：猪价降而成本升，三月观察产能去化进度。种植：国际区域冲 突局势，继续看好农产品上涨趋势。宠物: 汇率因素影响短期出口表现，看好国内市场增长 4、【汽车研究】汽车：近一周，申万汽车指数下跌 4%，新能源整车指数下跌 3%，汽车零部件指 数下跌 6%，商用车指数下跌 4%。往复式燃气发电机组作为 AIDC 主电源快速发展。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 余伟民(分析师) 010-50949926 yuweimin@gtht.com S0880525040028 王彦龙(分析师) 010-83939775 wangyanlo ...

【固收】 固收加时代，股市震荡的风会吹进债市"避风港"吗 2026 年以来，股债关系出现了一些新的变化。特别值得关注的是，投资者结构的边际变化和通胀预期影响股债的同向性。总体而言， 股债关系难言发生趋势 性切换，但需要更关注震荡情形下股债出现短期同向运动的可能性。 第一， 2025 年固收 + 产品明显扩容，尤其是二级债基增量较大，意味着同时持有债券底仓与权益仓位的资金占比上升，股债两端的边际资金来源更趋一 致。 由此，权益波动对债市的影响不再只是通过风险偏好与比价逻辑间接体现，而更容易通过净值回撤、赎回压力和再平衡行为直接传导至债市；在部分权 益明显调整、申赎压力集中的交易日里，股债更易共同承压。 债券在固收 + 基金赎回加速时受到的影响，可能类似于纯债基金被赎回时先卖利率债后卖信用 债的情景。这种压力并非在各类债券间平均分布，往往呈现"先高流动性、后低流动性；先交易盘、后配置盘"的特征。 第二， 2025 年来，权益市场走强和震荡经历了多轮主题轮动，债券投资者更应关注权益行情结构背后所对应的主线，不同主线对债市形成的扰动大不相同。 若金融走强，往往意味着市场重新交易信用扩张、政策发力与名义增长修复，传统" ...

往复式燃气发电机组作为 AIDC 主电源快速发展 [Table_Industry] 汽车 汽车行业周报（2026/3/13-2026/3/20） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | 张予名(研究助理) | 021-23154145 | zhangyuming@gtht.com | S0880125042241 | 本报告导读： 近一周，申万汽车指数下跌 4%，新能源整车指数下跌 3%，汽车零部件指数下跌 6%，商用车指数下跌 4%。往复式燃气发电机组作为 AIDC 主电源快速发展。 投资要点： 股票研究/[Table_Date] 2026.03.22 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 业 跟 汽车《2 月淡季销量同环比下滑，新车周期有望 驱动市场回升》2026.03 ...

1）乘用车：出海，向高端。 中国新能源车供应链的成本优势，有望在更加复杂的海外竞争环境中不断体现；国内新能源车竞争大浪淘沙，高端新能源车的品 牌力逐渐显现，突出品牌的独立行情机会仍在。 2）AIDC：汽车工业在发电、液冷环节大显身手。 往复式燃气发电机组、柴发在AIDC主供、备电领域的应用持续性有望超预期；汽零液冷业务在AIDC的推动 下不断扩圈。 3）智能化：Robotaxi加速推广。 我们认为Robotaxi作为高频、低门槛消费，对智驾的普及将有明显带动。2B与2C，L4与L2的联动将逐渐商业化落地。 4）人形机器人：蓄势等待产业下一次跃迁。 重点推荐基于企业自身突出优势，有望在全球竞争中配套头部本体厂的零部件公司。 5）商用车：重卡出口强劲，新能源轻型商用开辟新战场。 2026年仍将是重卡出口增长之年。欧洲新能源商用车开启高增长，中国产业链优势有望发挥。 风险提示：原材料价格大幅上涨；汽车行业景气度下行；人形机器人技术进展不及预期；经济增长不及预期。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 不可或缺的汽车工业——汽车行业2026年春季投资策略；报告日期：2026.03.13 报告作 ...

Core Viewpoint - Haitong International's report indicates that Weichai Power is undergoing a dual-driven transformation and is an undervalued comprehensive supplier in the AIDC energy sector, with the market still perceiving it as a traditional heavy truck cyclical stock, leading to a significantly lower valuation compared to tech energy stocks, with a projected PE of only 14.4 times in 2026 [1] Group 1 - The company is accelerating its transformation into a comprehensive supplier of AIDC power generation equipment, which the market has not fully priced in regarding its deep layout in the energy sector [1] - With the global surge in computing infrastructure, the company is expected to break the traditional manufacturing valuation ceiling through a dual logic of "overseas main supply and domestic backup" [1] - The company has various AIDC power generation equipment businesses, including reciprocating gas generator sets, SOFC, and backup diesel generation, which are anticipated to achieve high growth in performance against the backdrop of increasing global AIDC investment and the deepening "U.S. power shortage" phenomenon [1] Group 2 - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 12.4 billion, 15.3 billion, and 17.7 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.43, 1.75, and 2.03 yuan [1] - The growth in the AIDC power generation industry is expected to significantly increase the profit share of this business for Weichai Power, indicating substantial growth potential for the company [1] - The company is given a target price of 38.52 yuan based on a 22x PE for 2026, maintaining an "outperform the market" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Weichai Power (000338)(02338) has seen its stock price rise over 4%, reaching a historical high of 30.98 HKD, driven by increasing demand for power supply solutions in the AI data center sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Weichai Power's stock increased by 4.73%, with a trading volume of 2.78 billion HKD [1] - The company is transitioning from primarily manufacturing heavy-duty truck powertrains to becoming a comprehensive supplier of AIDC power generation equipment [1] Group 2: Industry Context - Morgan Stanley has raised the projected cumulative power gap for U.S. data centers from 44 GW to 47 GW, equivalent to the total electricity consumption of 9 Miami or 15 Philadelphia [1] - The shortage of electricity supply is a critical bottleneck for the expansion of AI computing power, prompting tech giants to seek new solutions, including building their own power facilities [1] - Weichai Power's various AIDC power generation equipment businesses, such as reciprocating gas generator sets and SOFC, are expected to experience significant growth due to the rapid increase in global AIDC investments and the deepening electricity shortage in the U.S. [1]

Core Viewpoint - Weichai Power (02338) has seen its stock price rise over 4%, reaching a historical high of 30.98 HKD, driven by increasing demand for power supply solutions in the AI data center sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Weichai Power's stock increased by 4.73%, with a trading volume of 278 million HKD [1] - The company is transitioning from primarily manufacturing heavy-duty truck powertrains to becoming a comprehensive supplier of AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) power generation equipment [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - Morgan Stanley has raised the projected cumulative power shortfall for U.S. data centers from 44 GW to 47 GW, equivalent to the total electricity consumption of 9 Miami cities or 15 Philadelphia cities [1] - The shortage of electricity supply is a critical bottleneck for the expansion of AI computing power, prompting tech giants to seek new solutions, including building their own power facilities [1] - Weichai Power's various AIDC power generation equipment businesses, such as reciprocating gas generators and SOFC (Solid Oxide Fuel Cells), are expected to experience significant growth due to the rapid increase in global AIDC investments and the ongoing electricity shortage in the U.S. [1]

Group 1: Communication Equipment and Services - The report confirms a price increase trend in the optical fiber industry, driven by a significant rise in demand for G657A2 overseas, leading to a reduction in G652D supply and longer delivery times, with prices expected to continue rising due to increased pre-holiday inventory demand from telecom operators [2][7] - The export performance of optical fiber and cable has been outstanding, with overseas demand for optical fibers driven by AI data centers and DCI (data center interconnect) scenarios, marking exports as a crucial profit growth point for companies in the optical fiber and cable industry [3][8] - The demand for specialty and multimode fibers is growing, with companies like Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable achieving significant advancements in hollow-core fiber technology, indicating a strong focus on R&D and application in data centers [4][9] Group 2: Weichai Power (潍柴动力) - Weichai Power is transitioning from a heavy-duty truck powertrain manufacturer to a comprehensive supplier of AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) power generation equipment, with expected net profits of 12.4 billion, 15.3 billion, and 17.7 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10][11] - The global AIDC investment is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected increase in data center power demand from 97 GW in 2024 to 226 GW by 2030, creating significant opportunities for Weichai Power's gas generator sets and SOFC (Solid Oxide Fuel Cell) products [11][12] - Weichai Power's deep involvement in gas generator sets and SOFC is anticipated to enhance its revenue from AIDC power sources, with significant growth expected in the coming years [12] Group 3: Yum China (百胜中国) - Yum China's same-store sales accelerated, with a 3% year-on-year increase in Q4 2025, driven by a rise in delivery sales, which accounted for 53% of total sales [13][14] - The company plans to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 1.005 billion, 1.062 billion, and 1.143 billion USD for 2026 to 2028, supported by a robust store expansion strategy [13][14] - Operational efficiency has improved, with restaurant profit margins increasing due to reduced costs in food, packaging, and rent, despite rising delivery costs [15] Group 4: Industrial Insights in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region - The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is experiencing a shift towards smart manufacturing, with the service sector becoming the dominant industry, while traditional industries are undergoing transformation [24][25] - Beijing is focusing on high-tech industries, particularly in information technology and integrated circuits, as part of its strategic development plan [25][26] - Tianjin and Hebei are also enhancing their industrial capabilities, with a focus on biotechnology and traditional manufacturing upgrades [26] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Industry Insights - The report highlights a recovery in investor sentiment towards innovative drugs in the U.S. pharmaceutical sector, driven by policy stabilization and active mergers and acquisitions [27] - In oncology, the dual antibody PD-1/VEGF is moving into clinical resonance, with several global phase III trials expected to yield significant data in 2026 [27][28] - The report notes the expansion of the self-pay market for obesity treatments, indicating a shift in treatment paradigms towards multi-pathway approaches [28][29] Group 6: Brain-Computer Interface Industry - The integration of AI with brain-computer interfaces is expected to drive industry growth, with a focus on non-invasive technologies and clinical applications [30][31] - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape between the U.S. and China in developing core technologies, with significant policy support in China accelerating industry standardization [31][32] - Commercialization is gaining momentum in healthcare, with applications in various fields such as rehabilitation and consumer health, indicating a long-term growth trajectory for leading companies [32]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to Weichai Power with a target price of 38.52 CNY [5]. Core Insights - Weichai Power is expected to transition from a heavy-duty truck powertrain manufacturer to a comprehensive supplier of AIDC power generation equipment, driven by the rapid growth of global AIDC investments and the ongoing electricity shortages in the U.S. [10][14]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 12.4 billion CNY in 2025, 15.3 billion CNY in 2026, and 17.7 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.43 CNY, 1.75 CNY, and 2.03 CNY respectively [10][14]. - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the AIDC power generation sector, particularly for Weichai Power's gas engine generator sets and SOFC technology, as demand for distributed power generation equipment is expected to rise sharply [10][21]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 213.96 billion CNY in 2023 to 277.18 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.3% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 9.01 billion CNY in 2023 to 17.72 billion CNY in 2027, representing a CAGR of about 16.2% [4]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 11.4% in 2023 to 16.1% in 2027 [4]. Business Segments - The intelligent logistics segment is expected to generate revenues of 91.39 billion CNY, 98.70 billion CNY, and 103.63 billion CNY in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding gross profits of 24.60 billion CNY, 27.23 billion CNY, and 28.95 billion CNY [15][17]. - The agricultural equipment segment is projected to achieve revenues of 20.18 billion CNY, 21.19 billion CNY, and 22.25 billion CNY in the same years, with gross profits of 2.68 billion CNY, 2.81 billion CNY, and 2.95 billion CNY [15][18]. - The complete vehicles and key components segment is anticipated to see revenues of 103.25 billion CNY, 115.64 billion CNY, and 127.20 billion CNY, with gross profits of 20.83 billion CNY, 23.33 billion CNY, and 25.66 billion CNY [15][18]. Market Outlook - The global data center power demand is expected to grow significantly, with total installed capacity projected to increase from 97 GW in 2024 to 226 GW by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 15% [21]. - The U.S. is facing a power supply shortage, with a projected gap of approximately 1.5 GW in 2025, which could expand to nearly 7 GW by 2030, creating substantial opportunities for Weichai Power's gas engine generator sets and SOFC technology [10][35]. - The report emphasizes that the demand for distributed power generation equipment will be driven by the increasing electricity needs of data centers, particularly in the U.S. [21][30].

Core Viewpoint - Weichai Power (02338) has seen its stock price rise over 4%, reaching a historical high of 28.36 HKD, driven by the growing demand for power generation in data centers and the global electricity shortage [1] Group 1: Company Performance - As of the latest report, Weichai Power's stock is up 3.46%, trading at 28.12 HKD with a transaction volume of 195 million HKD [1] - The company's power generation business is becoming the largest growth engine in the internal combustion engine industry, with expectations to sell over 100,000 units of power generation internal combustion engines by 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The demand for power generation units specifically for data centers is experiencing strong growth, with the company's generator capacity utilization currently at a high level, indicating full production for data center generators [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, Weichai Power is expected to transition from primarily manufacturing heavy-duty truck powertrains to becoming a comprehensive supplier of AIDC (Advanced Industrial Data Center) power generation equipment [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The global investment in AIDC is rapidly increasing, and the ongoing electricity shortage in the United States is expected to drive high growth in various AIDC power generation equipment businesses under Weichai Power, including reciprocating gas generators, SOFC (Solid Oxide Fuel Cells), and diesel generators for backup power [1]