碳排放约束时代的破局之道 SOFC 行业的五重机会--行业 PPT 报告 全年业绩转盈，车载和专显持续强化领先地位--深天马 A/光学光电子(000050/212703) 公司动态研究 哪些公司债主体存在到期压力？--固定收益点评 证券研究报告 2026 年 03 月 27 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2026 年第 48 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、碳排放约束时代的破局之道 SOFC 行业的五重机会--行业 PPT 报告 分析师：董伯骏 S0350521080009 分析师：李永磊 S0350521080004 联系人：于畅 S0350124080008 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、构建 SOFC/联合循环燃气轮机（CCGT）的度电成本（LCOE）测算模型， 详细评估 SOFC 成本结构与下降空间。2、系统梳理 SOFC 反应机理、主流技术路线及材料体系演进方向， 厘清方案迭代方向与降本路径；3、提出 SOFC 五重机遇：AIDC、碳约束、煤化工、主电源 ...

证券研究报告 2026年03月26日 基础化工 碳排放约束时代的破局之道 SOFC行业的五重机会 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn liyl03@ghzq.com.cn yuc02@ghzq.com.cn ——SOFC&两机系列深度之九 评级：推荐(维持) 董伯骏(证券分析师) 李永磊(证券分析师) 于畅(联系人) S0350521080009 S0350521080004 S0350124080008 最近一年走势 相关报告 -17% -3% 11% 25% 40% 54% 2025/03/26 2025/06/24 2025/09/22 2025/12/21 2026/03/21 基础化工 沪深300 《振华股份(603067.SH)深度报告：海外两机爆发，铬盐有望重估——系列 深度之二（买入）*化学原料*李永磊，董伯骏，陈云》——2025-07-31 《振华股份(603067.SH)深度报告：海外两机爆发，铬盐有望重估——系列 深度之二（买入）*化学原料*李永磊，董伯骏，陈云》——2025-07-31 《SOFC行业动态研究之一：SOFC新蓝海，铬盐再次价值重估，李永磊，董 伯骏》——2025-11 ...

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 AIDC用电需求爆发式增长，加剧北美电力短缺。 需求侧： AIDC基建浪潮下，用电需求爆发式增长，根据IEA，2024-2030年美国AIDC用电量从 180TWh增长至420TWh，占2024-2030年美国用电量增量的1/2。 供给侧： 美国电网装机规模增 长缓慢、老旧火力发电机组加速退役，电网设备老旧、稳定性差。 区域不平衡： 美国数据中 心集中建设在PJM/德州/加州等区域，电网互联互通容量低，局部电网面临严重电力短缺问 题。 缺电现状： 当前美国发电项目并网审批平均等待时长约为18-30个月，等待周期长；2025 年，AIDC用电需求驱动美国电价平均增长6.9%，其中价格涨幅前十的州中，PJM区域占据一 半 。 离网发电大势所趋，燃气发电机+SOFC迎来机遇。 当前离网主电源方案主要为：燃气轮机、燃气内燃机、SOFC。 燃气轮机短缺加剧交期延长： 2025年，全球燃气轮机供需缺口达10-20GW，燃气轮机头部厂商在手订单持续积压，新签订单 为销售收入的2-3倍，截至25Q4，GEV/西门子在手订单排期已至2029年。头部厂商扩产谨慎， 25年全球产能53GW， ...

近期产业链的股价调整更多是受市场情绪或资金层面因素的影响，例如对中东 冲突引发油气价格上涨及后续通胀的担忧，这影响了整个权益板块的情绪，与 行业基本面无关。从基本面来看，AI 及 AIDC 的需求确定性非常高，海内外算 力需求均呈现明确的快速爆发趋势。海外方面，NVIDIA 在 GTC 大会上推出 Rubin 等新产品，持续进行升级迭代，并强调 AI 应用的巨大潜力。国内方面， 阿里云和百度云已宣布对 AI 算力和存储等产品进行涨价，这反映了国内算力需 求的急剧增长。随着算力需求的持续爆发，将推动云端相关产品价格提升，并 对海内外 IDC 等基础设施的建设产生持续且显著的拉动作用。电力是底层最基 本的需求，只要 AI 发展和 AIDC 建设方向明确，AI 电力这一投资逻辑就非常确 定。因此，当前的调整为积极布局提供了机会。 AI 发电：调整之后，怎么看北美 AI 缺电产业链？ 20260318 摘要 AI 与 AIDC 算力爆发驱动全球电力需求激增，预计 2026-2027 年美国 电力短缺边际加剧，数据中心自建电源趋势明确。 海外变压器产能缺口巨大，高压产品交付周期达 3-4 年；中国产业链凭 借交付速度与 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the gas engine sector, particularly in the context of North American data centers and their power supply needs by 2028, which are projected to exceed 60 GW, with a distributed generation gap of 50 GW [1][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Gas Power Solutions**: Gas turbines and engines are expected to fill a significant portion of the power generation gap, with gas turbines projected to meet only 27 GW of the demand, and SOFC (Solid Oxide Fuel Cells) contributing approximately 5 GW, leaving a 25 GW shortfall to be covered by gas engines [1][4]. - **Market Dynamics**: The supply of gas engines is highly concentrated and under significant strain, with major suppliers like Caterpillar and Wärtsilä having delivery timelines extending to 2029, creating a clear opportunity for Chinese companies to step in [1][5]. - **Weichai Power's Market Position**: Weichai Power is expected to capture about 30% of the North American gas engine market, translating to approximately 3,000 units, generating around 25 billion RMB in revenue and 7-8 billion RMB in profit, contributing significantly to the company's market value [1][6]. - **SOFC Business Potential**: Weichai Power's SOFC business is projected to have a long-term capacity of 1 GW, potentially generating 20 billion RMB in revenue and 4 billion RMB in profit, adding nearly 100 billion RMB to market value [1][6]. - **Supporting Companies**: Key suppliers in the gas engine supply chain, such as Tianrun Industrial and Bohai Automotive, are expected to benefit from increased demand, with Bohai's piston demand projected to double by 2026 [1][7]. Additional Important Content - **Global Gas Price Trends**: Recent geopolitical tensions have led to a spike in global gas prices, particularly in Asia and Europe, while the U.S. market remains stable due to ample domestic supply. This stability supports the economic viability of gas-powered self-generation solutions compared to solar energy [2][3]. - **Long-term Demand Certainty**: The ongoing power shortages in North America are expected to persist, providing a solid foundation for the gas engine industry's growth. The demand for gas engines is anticipated to remain strong at least until 2030, making current market corrections an opportune time for investment [1][8]. Conclusion - The gas engine sector is positioned for significant growth driven by the increasing power demands of data centers in North America. Companies like Weichai Power and their supply chain partners are well-placed to capitalize on this trend, with strong revenue and profit potential projected in the coming years [1][8].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The availability of electricity has become a decisive factor for developers in selecting data center locations, with 84% of surveyed developers prioritizing power availability in their top three considerations, a shift from previous priorities such as proximity to fiber optics [6][8] - The average queue time for new projects in the European FLAP-D market is approximately 7-10 years, with some areas reaching up to 13 years, indicating significant delays in grid connection for data centers [10] - The dual constraints of generation capacity and grid capacity are identified as major bottlenecks, with insufficient reliable capacity to meet peak demands and grid infrastructure nearing its limits [10][19] - The report highlights a significant increase in auction prices for capacity in the PJM market, with costs reaching $16.4 billion, largely driven by data center loads [19][21] - The report notes that the global shift of computing centers from traditional markets to emerging markets is influenced by grid capacity, with regions like Texas and Northern Europe attracting investments due to their robust grid capabilities [50][52] Summary by Sections Chapter 1: Challenges in Power Availability for Overseas Data Centers - Power availability is a critical concern for data center developers, with increasing demand leading to complex integration challenges [6][10] - The report indicates that traditional data centers face an average integration time of less than two years, while new projects in Europe are experiencing delays of up to 13 years [10] Chapter 2: The Quest for Power by Overseas Data Centers - The report discusses the migration of computing centers to regions with sufficient power redundancy and favorable policies, such as Texas and Northern Europe [50][52] - Emerging markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East are highlighted for their rapid development and favorable conditions for data center investments [56] Power Supply Challenges - The report identifies a significant challenge in the reliability of new power sources, with traditional fossil fuel plants being phased out and new renewable sources facing integration delays [16][19] - The supply of critical equipment, such as transformers, is under pressure, leading to increased costs and delays in grid expansion [40][41] Flexibility and Self-Supply - The report emphasizes the growing trend of data centers adopting self-supply capabilities, with a notable increase in developers planning to rely on onsite generation [60][64] - Hybrid power supply models are emerging as a viable solution, combining grid power with self-generated electricity to enhance reliability and reduce costs [70]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive [1] Core Views - The demand for diverse power generation solutions is surging due to the rapid growth of AI and data centers in North America, leading to a shift from reliance on public grids to self-built power stations by tech giants [3][25] - Gas turbines are the preferred primary power solution for American AIDC, with significant order backlogs extending to 2029-2030, presenting opportunities for domestic manufacturers [4][45] - Multiple power generation technologies, including gas turbines, modified aviation fuels, internal combustion engines, and solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC), are emerging as key solutions for data centers [5][29] - The backup power solution of choice is diesel generators, with a projected market size of 10.8 billion yuan in China by 2027, benefiting from domestic replacements and international expansion [6] Summary by Sections North American Data Centers - The capital expenditure of major North American cloud service providers is expected to increase significantly, with a projected 72% year-on-year growth in 2025 [15] - The aging power grid, long interconnection times, and significant power shortages are major challenges facing data center construction in the U.S. [19][24] - The shift towards self-built power stations is driven by high industrial electricity prices and regulatory requirements from the government [25] Gas Turbines - Gas turbines are the leading choice for primary power in U.S. data centers, with a market dominated by GE, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and Siemens Energy [4][45] - The global gas turbine market is experiencing a surge in demand, with significant order growth reported by major manufacturers [46][50][63] Modified Aviation Fuels, Internal Combustion Engines, and SOFC - Modified aviation fuels are gaining traction due to their short delivery cycles and flexible deployment [5] - Internal combustion engines are benefiting from lower costs and quick delivery, with companies like Wärtsilä securing large orders [5] - SOFC technology is being commercialized, with companies like Bloom Energy leading the way [5] Diesel Generators - Diesel generators are a core backup power choice, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% from 2024 to 2027 in China [6] - Domestic companies are breaking the monopoly of foreign firms in the high-end market, presenting growth opportunities [6]

Summary of AIDC Power Supply Chain Update Industry Overview - The update focuses on the AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) power supply chain, highlighting the impact of U.S. power supply constraints and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on energy demands and supply dynamics [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments U.S. Power Supply Constraints - The U.S. power grid is facing supply constraints, leading to increased demand for self-supply solutions, benefiting gas internal combustion engines, SOFC (Solid Oxide Fuel Cells), and gas turbines [1][2]. - The commitment by major tech companies to self-supply power indicates a shift in energy sourcing, with expectations that the proportion of data centers relying on grid power will decrease, enhancing the demand for high-density primary power configurations [2]. Market Demand and Projections - Weichai Power's projected shipments for gas-fired power generation are 1,400 units in 2025, increasing to 2,800 units in 2026, with a target of 8,000 units by 2028-2030, contributing profits of 5-6 billion [1][5]. - Gartner has significantly raised its North American capacity forecast to $1 billion, indicating strong demand recovery in the AIDC sector [4][5]. SOFC and Gas Engine Developments - Weichai's SOFC capacity is set to expand to 10 MW in 2026 and 100 MW in 2027, reaching 1 GW by 2030, with a focus on the 3-6 MW power range for gas internal combustion engines [1][6]. - The company is expected to secure significant orders in North America by mid-2026, driven by the ongoing power shortages [6]. Competitive Landscape - Dongfang Electric and other manufacturers are increasing inquiries for backup power sources in the Middle East due to ongoing conflicts, which is expected to boost demand for gas-fired power generation [4]. - Yuchai is benefiting from AIDC tenders, including a 1 GW project, while Weifu High-Tech is focusing on high-power fuel injection and SOFC components, with a valuation of approximately 13 times earnings [3][14]. Financial Projections and Market Valuation - The profit contribution from Weichai's gas-fired business alone is projected to reach 50-60 billion by 2028-2030, translating to a market valuation of around 1 trillion based on a 20x PE ratio [5]. - Yinlun's expansion in the Caterpillar supply chain aims to increase the unit value to over $150,000, potentially adding 20 billion in market value [9][10]. Challenges and Opportunities - Yuchai's recent stock price decline is attributed to higher costs and lower-than-expected performance in Q4, but there are growth opportunities in domestic and overseas markets, particularly in the Middle East [8]. - The market is currently undervaluing several companies in the power supply chain, presenting potential investment opportunities as demand for backup power solutions increases [14][15]. Additional Important Insights - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is causing disruptions in data centers and power supply equipment, leading to an increased demand for backup power solutions [4]. - The overall sentiment in the AIDC power supply chain is optimistic, with various companies positioned to benefit from the evolving energy landscape and increasing demand for self-supply solutions [1][15].

MLCC Industry Update Summary Industry Overview - The MLCC (Multi-layer Ceramic Capacitor) industry is currently dominated by Murata (50% market share) and Samsung (40% market share) in the AI application segment, indicating a highly oligopolistic market structure [1][2][3]. - The industry is transitioning from a phase of "volume growth" to "price increase," with Murata's production capacity utilization expected to reach 95% in Q1 2026, driven by AI orders that have doubled the production capacity [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The demand for AI products, particularly high-capacity MLCCs, is significantly outpacing supply, with AI-related products consuming 10%-15% of revenue but occupying a disproportionately higher share of production capacity [1][8]. - **Price Adjustments**: Murata has already raised prices for high-end MLCCs used in AI servers, with expectations for price increases in mid-range products to be clarified by the end of March 2026 [1][7]. - **Production Capacity Growth**: SanHuan Group has ramped up production capacity to 50 billion units per month as of January 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of at least 35% expected in Q1 [1][5]. - **Market Sentiment**: The BB ratio (backlog-to-billings ratio) for Murata and Taiyo Yuden has risen to 1.1, indicating a potential for industry-wide price increases if it surpasses 1.2-1.3 [1][12]. Company-Specific Insights - **Murata**: - Maintains a high production capacity utilization rate of 90%-95% as of Q4 2025, with a target of 95% for Q1 2026 [2][3]. - Focuses on high-frequency MLCCs and ultra-high-capacity MLCCs (47μF and above), which present significant manufacturing challenges due to their complexity [8][9]. - **Samsung**: - Achieved a production capacity utilization rate of 92% in Q4 2025, with a slight decrease attributed to seasonal demand fluctuations in consumer electronics [3]. - ASP (Average Selling Price) increased by approximately 3% in Q4, despite a 28% decline in shipment volume [3]. - **Taiyo Yuden and Yageo**: Both companies have lower utilization rates (around 85% and 80%-85% respectively) but are expected to see improvements in Q1 2026 [4]. Additional Important Points - **Market Trends**: The MLCC market is expected to see a peak in cabinet volume in Q4 2026, driven by the demand for high-frequency MLCCs surpassing aluminum electrolytic capacitors [1][12]. - **Valuation Insights**: Current valuations for domestic MLCC manufacturers range from 25-45 times earnings, with overseas manufacturers like Murata trading at 15-25 times earnings depending on the cycle [15]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Boke Material and Jiemai Technology are highlighted as beneficiaries of the global AI supply chain, with potential for growth despite current high valuations [18]. Conclusion The MLCC industry is poised for significant growth driven by AI applications, with key players like Murata and Samsung leading the charge. The supply-demand imbalance, coupled with rising prices and production capacity expansions, suggests a favorable outlook for the industry in 2026. Investors should monitor the evolving landscape for potential opportunities and risks associated with valuation and market dynamics.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the North American AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) and its self-built power supply trends, driven by electricity shortages and rising electricity prices, impacting data center construction and electricity costs for residents [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Electricity Supply and Demand**: The electricity shortage in North America is confirmed by both logical reasoning and price indicators, with a projected increase in terminal electricity prices by over 5% in 2025 and a 60% rise in real-time trading prices in concentrated data center areas like the PJM grid [2]. - **Self-Built Power Supply Trend**: There is a significant shift towards self-built power supplies for data centers, which is expected to accelerate due to rising electricity prices and the need to bypass grid bottlenecks. This trend is anticipated to enhance the speed of data center construction and operation [1][4][6]. - **Government Policies**: Federal, regional, and state governments are aligned in their approach, requiring data centers to bear the marginal costs of electricity. Policies are being adjusted to facilitate faster grid connections for data centers with self-built power supplies [4][5]. - **Market Opportunities for China**: The self-built power supply trend is expected to boost demand for power generation, transmission, and distribution equipment, providing opportunities for Chinese companies in the supply chain [1][7]. - **Demand Projections**: Over the next five years, demand for high-voltage transformers is expected to grow by 30-40%, while medium and low-voltage transformers will see a 15-20% increase. Energy storage demand is projected to rise by 20-30% [3][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Technological Advancements**: The focus on SOFC (Solid Oxide Fuel Cell) technology is highlighted, which offers high efficiency and quick delivery, making it suitable for addressing North America's urgent power needs. The cost of electricity generated can be competitive with gas turbine prices [3][19][20]. - **Market Dynamics**: The shift towards self-built power supplies may alter procurement systems, with data centers likely to prioritize cost-effectiveness and delivery timelines, enhancing the competitive edge of Chinese manufacturers [6][7]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Key players in the transformer and energy storage sectors are identified, with specific companies noted for their potential in the U.S. market, including Si Yuan, Yi Er, and Jin Pan for transformers, and Yangguang for energy storage [10][18]. Conclusion - The North American electricity shortage and the trend towards self-built power supplies present significant opportunities for Chinese companies in the power equipment sector. The evolving regulatory landscape and technological advancements further enhance the potential for growth in this market.