综合考虑成本、建设周期、环保等因素，燃气轮机是当前AIDC自建电最优解，燃气内燃机、SOFC、柴发为有 效补充 （1）燃气轮机：联合循环燃气轮机发电效率可以达到60%以上，度电成本最低，当前燃气轮机装机量呈现加速上 行趋势，2025年全球新增装机规模有望快速接近上轮周期最高点，GEV、西门子、三菱重工等燃机龙头订单交付 已经排至2029年；（2）燃气内燃机：在发电效率上略低于联合循环燃机，但胜在快速交付与部署，龙头瓦锡兰 2025Q1-Q3新签设备订单同比增长111%，订单交付排至2028年；（3）SOFC：热电联供发电效率虽高，但当前商 业化和成本控制处于初期阶段，度电成本和产能释放导致该技术短期无法成为主流线索；（4）柴油发电机组：具 备快速启停优势，备用电源最优解，龙头公司康明斯2025年Q1-Q3相关收入同比增速约20%。 [太阳]【AIDC发电专题报告】北美缺电逻辑持续演绎，相关投资线索再梳理【东吴机械】 北美缺电现状是AI电力需求的非线性增长和电网基建老化之间的矛盾 需求端，美国AIDC项目激增导致美国电力需求非线性增长。供给端，2025年总量供应短期基本满足需求，但长期 来看，美国供给端面临稳定 ...

东吴证券近日发布AIDC发电专题报告：2024年超过50%的数据中心选择建在德州、加州、弗吉尼亚 州，区域供电压力较大。且美国电网运营分散，区域互联较差，如2025年PJM电网多次因跨区功率失衡 触发紧急控制。基于北美供需矛盾以及持续增长的AI资本开支情况，NERC预计美国2027-2030年年均 高峰缺口20GW以上，德州、中大西洋、中西部、加州将面临显著高风险；DOE预测美国2030年年均高 峰缺口达20-40GW。 风险提示：AI数据中心投资不及预期、国际贸易摩擦、产能爬坡不及预期。(东吴证券周尔双,黄瑞) 综合考虑成本、建设周期、环保等因素，燃气轮机是当前AIDC自建电最优解，燃气内燃机、SOFC、柴 发为有效补充。(1)燃气轮机：联合循环燃气轮机发电效率可以达到60%以上，度电成本最低，当前燃气 轮机装机量呈现加速上行趋势，2025年全球新增装机规模有望快速接近上轮周期最高点，GEV、西门 子、三菱重工等燃机龙头订单交付已经排至2029年；(2)燃气内燃机：在发电效率上略低于联合循环燃 机，但胜在快速交付与部署，龙头瓦锡兰2025Q1-Q3新签设备订单同比增长111%，订单交付排至2028 年；(3 ...

隔夜美股Bloom Energy一度大涨8%，资料显示，公司为SOFC行业龙头之一，其E管理层表示现在所有 服务器出货已原生支持800VDC，无需高压交流变压器；同时目前在研发产品以快速跟随AI负载，未来 可能对电池需求进一步降低。 壹石通：公司在SOFC关键粉体材料、单电池、电堆及关键部件等产业链核心环节，均可实现自主供 应，进而实现规模化降本。 大洋电机：公司开发了氢燃料电池关键零部件。 *免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 *风险提示：股市有风险，入市需谨慎 美国目前拥有超过4000个数据中心，居全球首位，美国数据中心主要运营商拥有超过300座在建数据中 心，2025-2030年美国预计新增数据中心IT容量达55GW。 招商证券表示，当前北美电网面临严重的互连排队积压，变压器短缺及输配电扩容周期长，燃气轮机交 付周期长，已成为制约AI算力落地的最大物理瓶颈。SOFC凭借其快速撬装部署、占地面积小、支持离 网运行等优势，叠加高达60%的发电效率，成为解决数据中心供电快速部署的重要解决方案。在电网侧 短期难以扩容的背景下，SOFC已具备极强的"刚需"属性。 公司方面，据长江证券表示， ...

东吴证券发布研报称，需求端，美国AIDC项目激增导致美国电力需求非线性增长。供给端，2025年总 量供应短期基本满足需求，但长期来看，美国供给端面临稳定供应总量下滑&区域性缺电困境。北美缺 电投资逐渐从燃气轮机向燃气内燃机、SOFC扩散，当前北美缺电量仍大于各种技术总产能供应，因此 该板块尚未到达选择技术路径的阶段，各类技术路径的相关投资机会都应重视。 综合考虑成本、建设周期、环保等因素，燃气轮机是当前AIDC自建电最优解，燃气内燃机、SOFC、柴 发为有效补充 (1)燃气轮机：联合循环燃气轮机发电效率可以达到60%以上，度电成本最低，当前燃气轮机装机量呈现 加速上行趋势，2025年全球新增装机规模有望快速接近上轮周期最高点，GEV、西门子、三菱重工等 燃机龙头订单交付已经排至2029年;(2)燃气内燃机：在发电效率上略低于联合循环燃机，但胜在快速交 付与部署，龙头瓦锡兰2025Q1-Q3新签设备订单同比增长111%，订单交付排至2028年;(3)SOFC：热电联 供发电效率虽高，但当前商业化和成本控制处于初期阶段，度电成本和产能释放导致该技术短期无法成 为主流线索;(4)柴油发电机组：具备快速启停优势，备用 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the North American electricity sector, particularly focusing on gas turbines and related technologies due to the ongoing electricity shortage driven by AI data center demands [2][6][30]. Core Insights - The North American electricity shortage is characterized by a contradiction between the non-linear growth of AI electricity demand and the aging infrastructure of the power grid. The demand side sees a surge in AIDC projects, while the supply side faces challenges with declining stable supply and regional electricity shortages [2][6][24]. - The report highlights that gas turbines are currently the optimal solution for AIDC self-built power generation, with gas internal combustion engines, SOFC, and diesel generation serving as effective supplements [2][37]. - The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) predicts an average peak electricity gap of over 20GW from 2027 to 2030, with significant risks in Texas, the Mid-Atlantic, the Midwest, and California [2][32]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Current Electricity Shortage in North America - The electricity shortage is driven by the non-linear growth of AI demand and the aging power grid infrastructure. The electricity consumption in the U.S. is expected to reach historical highs in 2025-2026, with data centers' planned installed capacity increasing from 5GW in early 2023 to over 245GW by October 2025 [6][19]. - The average lifespan of power infrastructure in the U.S. is around 35-40 years, leading to frequent outages and an inability to meet the reliability demands of AIDC [15][19]. Section 2: Power Source Selection - Gas turbines are identified as the primary power source, with gas internal combustion engines, SOFC, and diesel generation as supplementary options. The report emphasizes the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of gas turbines, which can achieve over 60% efficiency and have the lowest cost per kilowatt-hour [2][37]. - The report also discusses the expected increase in gas turbine installations, with global new installations projected to approach previous cycle peaks by 2025, driven by the surge in AIDC electricity demand [48][52]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on various technologies due to the ongoing electricity shortage, suggesting investments in gas turbines, gas internal combustion engines, SOFC, and diesel generation. Specific companies are highlighted for potential investment opportunities, including Jerry Holdings, Yingliu Co., Dongfang Electric, and others [2][37][39].

证券研究报告·行业研究·机械设备 AIDC发电专题报告： 北美缺电逻辑持续演绎，相关投资线索再梳理 首席证券分析师：周尔双 执业证书编号：S0600515110002 zhouersh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师：黄瑞 执业证书编号：S0600525070004 huangr@dwzq.com.cn 2026 年 2 月 9 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心观点 2 ◆ 北美缺电现状是AI电力需求的非线性增长和电网基建老化之间的矛盾。需求端，美国AIDC项目激增导致美国电力需求非 线性增长。供给端，2025年总量供应短期基本满足需求，但长期来看，美国供给端面临稳定供应总量下滑&区域性缺电 困境。（1）稳定供应量下滑：电网普遍老化，停电频发，无法满足AIDC对100%可靠性发电要求；煤电即将迎来新一轮 退役高峰，风光发电不稳定、核能地热建设周期过长，仅能依靠天然气发电满足当前缺口；（2）区域性缺电：2024年超 过50%的数据中心选择建在德州、加州、弗吉尼亚州，区域供电压力较大。且美国电网运营分散，区域互联较差，如 2025年PJM电网多次因跨区功率失衡触发紧急控制。基于北美供需矛盾以及持续增 ...

Group 1: Communication Equipment and Services - The report confirms a price increase trend in the optical fiber industry, driven by a significant rise in demand for G657A2 overseas, leading to a reduction in G652D supply and longer delivery times, with prices expected to continue rising due to increased pre-holiday inventory demand from telecom operators [2][7] - The export performance of optical fiber and cable has been outstanding, with overseas demand for optical fibers driven by AI data centers and DCI (data center interconnect) scenarios, marking exports as a crucial profit growth point for companies in the optical fiber and cable industry [3][8] - The demand for specialty and multimode fibers is growing, with companies like Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable achieving significant advancements in hollow-core fiber technology, indicating a strong focus on R&D and application in data centers [4][9] Group 2: Weichai Power (潍柴动力) - Weichai Power is transitioning from a heavy-duty truck powertrain manufacturer to a comprehensive supplier of AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) power generation equipment, with expected net profits of 12.4 billion, 15.3 billion, and 17.7 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10][11] - The global AIDC investment is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected increase in data center power demand from 97 GW in 2024 to 226 GW by 2030, creating significant opportunities for Weichai Power's gas generator sets and SOFC (Solid Oxide Fuel Cell) products [11][12] - Weichai Power's deep involvement in gas generator sets and SOFC is anticipated to enhance its revenue from AIDC power sources, with significant growth expected in the coming years [12] Group 3: Yum China (百胜中国) - Yum China's same-store sales accelerated, with a 3% year-on-year increase in Q4 2025, driven by a rise in delivery sales, which accounted for 53% of total sales [13][14] - The company plans to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 1.005 billion, 1.062 billion, and 1.143 billion USD for 2026 to 2028, supported by a robust store expansion strategy [13][14] - Operational efficiency has improved, with restaurant profit margins increasing due to reduced costs in food, packaging, and rent, despite rising delivery costs [15] Group 4: Industrial Insights in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region - The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is experiencing a shift towards smart manufacturing, with the service sector becoming the dominant industry, while traditional industries are undergoing transformation [24][25] - Beijing is focusing on high-tech industries, particularly in information technology and integrated circuits, as part of its strategic development plan [25][26] - Tianjin and Hebei are also enhancing their industrial capabilities, with a focus on biotechnology and traditional manufacturing upgrades [26] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Industry Insights - The report highlights a recovery in investor sentiment towards innovative drugs in the U.S. pharmaceutical sector, driven by policy stabilization and active mergers and acquisitions [27] - In oncology, the dual antibody PD-1/VEGF is moving into clinical resonance, with several global phase III trials expected to yield significant data in 2026 [27][28] - The report notes the expansion of the self-pay market for obesity treatments, indicating a shift in treatment paradigms towards multi-pathway approaches [28][29] Group 6: Brain-Computer Interface Industry - The integration of AI with brain-computer interfaces is expected to drive industry growth, with a focus on non-invasive technologies and clinical applications [30][31] - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape between the U.S. and China in developing core technologies, with significant policy support in China accelerating industry standardization [31][32] - Commercialization is gaining momentum in healthcare, with applications in various fields such as rehabilitation and consumer health, indicating a long-term growth trajectory for leading companies [32]

国泰海通证券认为，潍柴动力有望从一家以重卡动力链生产制造为主企业，逐渐转型成为AIDC发电设 备的全面供应商。在全球AIDC投资高速增长、"美国缺电"现象不断深入的背景下，潍柴动力旗下多种 AIDC发电设备业务——往复式燃气发电机组、SOFC以及作为备电的柴发均有望实现高增长。 智通财经APP获悉，潍柴动力(02338)涨超4%，高见28.36港元，再创历史新高。截至发稿，涨3.46%， 报28.12港元，成交额1.95亿港元。 消息面上，据证券时报报道，当前，在数据中心建设浪潮与全球电力紧缺的双重驱动下，发电业务正成 为内燃机行业未来最大的增长引擎。"2025年我们发电用内燃机销量突破10万台，其中数据中心专用机 型需求增长强劲。"潍柴电力能源事业部相关负责人日前接受采访时表示，现在该公司发电机组产能利 用率处于高位，数据中心用发电机组基本满产。 ...

国泰海通晨报 2026 年 02 月 04 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【基金评价与研究】：2026 年开年以来，A 股市场热点赛道相继发酵，1 月全月依然延续了慢 牛上涨行情。我们建议后续基金配置在整体维持均衡风格的前提下，适度偏向成长，从大类资产 配置角度来看可以对黄金和美股相关 ETF 进行一定配置。 2、【生物医药研究】医药：在英国首相访华期间，阿斯利康宣布计划在中国投资 150 亿美元，将 主要用于细胞治疗和放射性偶联药物。 3、【汽车研究】潍柴动力：新兴的 AIDC 发电设备——往复式燃气发电机组、SOFC 将是潍柴动 力的重要业绩增长点。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 江涛(分析师) 021-23185672 jiangtao4@gtht.com S0880525040067 倪韵婷(分析师) 021-23185605 niyunting@gtht.c ...

燃启寰宇智，气贯全球芯 潍柴动力(000338) 潍柴动力（000338.SZ）AIDC 发电设备深度报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | 张予名(研究助理) | 021-23154145 | zhangyuming@gtht.com | S0880125042241 | 本报告导读： 新兴的 AIDC 发电设备——往复式燃气发电机组、SOFC 将是潍柴动力的重要业绩 增长点。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 213,958 | 215,691 | 236,480 | 258,350 | 277,184 | | (+/-)% | 22.2% | 0.8% | 9.6% ...