策略联合行业 周期在扩散 20260129 摘要 上游周期品受益于资金面宽松和产能周期底部，供需紧平衡推动价格上 涨，化工、黑色链、地产链等领域具备投资机会，短期市场强势，长期 逻辑支持，但需关注结构性轮动和性价比。 化工行业公募持仓低配，双碳政策限制新增产能，资本开支负增长限制 供给，行业景气度向上。关注石油石化资源禀赋好的企业，基础化工需 求超预期及双碳政策边际变化下的核心资产，以及出海方向的轮胎企业。 煤炭板块供给收缩，海外需求增加，库存下降，价格随时可能上涨。PB 角度看公司被低估，现货比例高的公司业绩弹性仍然存在，应乐观地看 待节后市场，并关注被严重低估且具备业绩弹性的煤炭公司。 全球动荡局势下，实物资产崛起，黄金牛市持续，地缘冲突加剧避险情 绪，央行购金持续，推荐紫金黄金国际和山东黄金。工业金属看好铝和 铜，铝板块重点推荐中国铝业，铜板块则建议配置藏格紫金与洛钼。 顺丰控股具备绝对收益和估值修复空间，2025 年与 2026 年的绝对收 益率为 3.8%，估值创十年新低，后续 EPS 上修与 PE 修复空间较大。 顺丰同城第三方配送领域占据领先地位，未来互联网大厂合作将带来单 量与业绩的大幅提升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has experienced a significant appreciation against the US dollar, rising from 7.43 to 6.99 in just over six months, breaking the key psychological barrier of 7.0, contrary to previous pessimistic market sentiments [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Appreciation Dynamics - The yuan began its appreciation in April 2023, with the onshore yuan recently surpassing the 7.07 mark, reaching a midpoint of 7.0759 in early December, marking a new high in over a year [3][4]. - The US dollar index has fallen from a high of 109 to below 100, with an annual decline exceeding 8%, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [4]. - China's economic resilience is a fundamental support for the yuan's strength, with a bank settlement surplus of $80.9 billion in the first ten months and a GDP growth of 5.3% in Q3, surpassing market expectations [4]. Group 2: Impact on Industries - The aviation sector benefits significantly from the yuan's appreciation, with a 1% increase in the yuan potentially boosting the net profit of leading airlines by 5% [6]. - The paper industry also stands to gain, as over 70% of its raw materials are imported, leading to a 2-3 percentage point increase in gross margins due to lower procurement costs [7]. - The financial sector is seeing increased foreign investment, with foreign holdings of Chinese government bonds exceeding 3.2 trillion yuan, creating a favorable environment for core financial assets [6][7]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that a classic "cross-year-spring" market trend is developing, with a focus on cyclical sectors such as industrial metals, non-bank financials, and the hotel and aviation industries [9]. - Investment strategies are being adjusted, with a focus on consumer services, food and beverage sectors, and traditional industries like basic chemicals and machinery [9][12]. - The ongoing appreciation of the yuan is expected to influence market dynamics, with a potential shift towards value-driven investments as investor sentiment stabilizes [12][13].

Group 1 - The company Xianhe Co., Ltd. (SH 603733) held its fourth fifth board meeting on December 12, 2025, via telecommunication voting, discussing the proposal for the fourth temporary shareholders' meeting of 2025 [1] - For the year 2024, the revenue composition of Xianhe Co., Ltd. is as follows: the paper industry accounts for 96.05%, while other businesses account for 3.95% [1] Group 2 - As of the report, the market capitalization of Xianhe Co., Ltd. is 15.9 billion yuan [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Huawang Technology (SH 605377) announced the convening of its fourth board meeting on December 5, 2025, to discuss the proposal for conducting futures and foreign exchange hedging business in 2026 [1] - For the year 2024, Huawang Technology's revenue composition is as follows: 76.83% from the paper industry, 22.06% from wholesale and retail, and 1.11% from other businesses [1] - As of the report, Huawang Technology has a market capitalization of 4.6 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - Company Hengda New Materials announced a share buyback of approximately 230,000 shares, accounting for 0.2532% of its total share capital, with a total transaction amount of approximately 6.26 million RMB [1] - The highest transaction price for the buyback was 31.16 RMB per share, while the lowest was 26.35 RMB per share [1] - As of the report, Hengda New Materials has a market capitalization of 2.7 billion RMB [1] Group 2 - For the year 2024, the revenue composition of Hengda New Materials is entirely from the paper industry, with a 100.0% share [1]

Company Summary - Wuzhou Special Paper announced that shareholders Lin Wanming and Zhao Yunfei have completed their share reduction plan, with Lin reducing approximately 1.24 million shares (0.26% of total shares) and Zhao reducing approximately 480,000 shares (0.10% of total shares) through centralized bidding [1] - As of the report date, Wuzhou Special Paper's market capitalization is 5.6 billion yuan [1] Industry Summary - In 2024, Wuzhou Special Paper's revenue composition is heavily weighted towards the paper industry, accounting for 99.78%, while other businesses contribute only 0.22% [1]

Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has reached new highs, with the offshore RMB surpassing 7.08 and the onshore RMB exceeding 7.09, marking the highest levels in over a year [1][3] - The RMB's middle exchange rate against the US dollar has increased by approximately 1000 basis points this year, while the CFETS RMB exchange rate index has risen to 98.22, indicating a strong performance against a basket of currencies [1][3][4] Group 2 - The appreciation of the RMB is attributed to multiple factors, including a decline in the US dollar index, which has dropped over 8% since the beginning of the year, and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][6] - Domestically, the resilience of the Chinese economy, particularly strong export performance, has provided support for the RMB, with a surplus of 80.9 billion USD in foreign exchange settlements in the first ten months of the year [6] Group 3 - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to positively impact the stock market through three main channels: capital flow, corporate profitability, and policy space, with historical data showing a correlation between RMB appreciation and stock market performance [7][8] - Specific sectors such as aviation, paper manufacturing, and non-ferrous metals are likely to benefit significantly from the RMB's appreciation due to reduced import costs [10] Group 4 - Looking ahead, the RMB is expected to maintain a strong performance, supported by a stable monetary policy environment and ongoing structural adjustments in the economy [11] - The current environment presents a significant opportunity for the revaluation of RMB assets, particularly in sectors like new energy vehicles and semiconductors, which are enhancing their international competitiveness [13]

Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.25% and 0.44% respectively [2] - Over 2,700 stocks rose in the two markets, with a total trading volume of approximately 1.71 trillion yuan [2] Group 2: Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery sector rebounded, with significant gains in stocks such as Huasheng Lithium Battery (up over 15%) and Penghui Energy (up over 14%) [2] - Prices of key lithium battery electrolyte components, including lithium hexafluorophosphate and ethylene carbonate, have been rising [2] - CITIC Construction Investment Securities predicts that excess profits in the energy storage downstream investment operation will be passed upstream through price increases, indicating a resilient lithium battery industry chain [2] Group 3: Paper Industry - The paper industry remains active, with companies like Qifeng New Materials and Bohui Paper experiencing substantial gains [2] - Driven by e-commerce stocking demands, the operating rates of paper companies are high, and prices for corrugated and boxboard paper continue to rise [3] - White cardboard prices have also been increasing, supported by high costs and low inventory levels [3] Group 4: Photovoltaic Sector - Photovoltaic concept stocks are performing well, with Mingguan New Materials rising by 20% and Saiwu Technology by 10% [4] - The outlook for the electric new industry remains positive, with expectations of supply-side adjustments and battery technology upgrades creating new opportunities [5] - The Chinese government's commitment to energy transformation is expected to accelerate demand improvements in the photovoltaic sector [5] Group 5: Consumer Electronics - The consumer electronics sector is showing strong performance, with companies like Yunzuka Technology rising by 20% [6] - Alibaba's launch of its first self-developed flagship AI glasses is seen as a significant step in integrating digital and physical worlds [6] Group 6: Weak Sectors - The film and cultural media sectors are experiencing declines, with Shanghai Film dropping over 7% [6] - Some pharmacy-related stocks are also weakening, indicating a broader trend of underperformance in these sectors [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hengda New Materials (SZ 301469) is actively engaging with investors, indicating a focus on transparency and communication regarding its business operations [1] - Hengda New Materials' revenue composition for the year 2024 is entirely derived from the paper industry, with a 100.0% share [2] - As of the latest report, Hengda New Materials has a market capitalization of 2.7 billion yuan [3]

Group 1 - The controlling shareholder of Xianhe Co., Ltd. holds approximately 554 million unrestricted tradable shares, accounting for 78.22% of the company's total share capital [1] - After the latest pledge, the total pledged shares by Xianhe Holdings amount to 77 million shares, which represents 13.91% of its holdings and 10.88% of the company's total share capital [1] - For the year 2024, the revenue composition of Xianhe Co., Ltd. is as follows: the paper industry accounts for 96.05%, while other businesses account for 3.95% [1] Group 2 - As of the latest report, the market capitalization of Xianhe Co., Ltd. is 16 billion yuan [2]