资源扰动再现，关注 下游旺季备货 碳酸锂周报 2026/02/28 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 曾宇轲（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 供给端 06 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 ◆ 期现市场：2月27日，五矿钢联碳酸锂现货指数（MMLC）早盘报173736元，周涨19.62%。MMLC电池级碳酸锂均价为174100元。同日广期所 LC2605收盘价176040元，周涨15.33%。 ◆ 供给：节后锂盐厂产量上移，2月26日，SMM国内碳酸锂周度产量报21822吨，较节前一周增8.1%。2026年1月国内碳酸锂产量为97900吨，2月 预计国内碳酸锂产量环比减少16.3%。2026年1月份智利出口到中国的碳酸锂为16950吨，环比增44.82%，同比减少11.35%；出口至中国的硫 酸锂为2.78万吨。 ◆ 需求：据中汽协，1月国内新能源汽车产量为104.1万辆，同比增长2.5%；销量为94.5万辆，同比增长0.1%， ...

Market Overview - On February 11, A-shares showed mixed performance with the ChiNext Index dropping over 1% and total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reaching 2 trillion, a decrease of 123.7 billion from the previous trading day, with over 3,200 stocks declining [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 4131.98 (+0.09%) - Shenzhen Component Index: 14160.93 (-0.35%) - ChiNext Index: 1788.22 (-0.79%) - CSI 300: 4713.82 (-0.22%) - CSI 500: 8325.81 (+0.23%) - CSI 1000: 8239.51 (-0.13%) [2] Sector Analysis - The chemical sector has shown strong performance recently, with companies like Jihua Group achieving four consecutive trading limits. UBS has raised its outlook for the Chinese chemical industry, predicting a new upward cycle from 2026 to 2028 due to multiple positive factors [3] - The fiberglass manufacturing sector experienced a collective surge, with nearly all stocks hitting the daily limit. Notable performers included International Composite, which reached a 20% limit within six minutes of opening, and other companies like Changhai Co., Honghe Technology, and China Jushi also saw significant gains [3][4] Lithium Battery Sector - Lithium battery stocks were active, with Zhongcai Technology hitting the daily limit and reaching a historical high. The domestic commodity futures market saw most prices rise, with lithium carbonate increasing over 9% [5] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector experienced fluctuations, with Baodi Mining hitting the daily limit and Haotong Technology rising over 9%. Silver futures surged, with spot silver exceeding $83 per ounce, and gold prices recovering to $5050 per ounce [6] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector was active, with companies like Xianglu Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten hitting the daily limit. The computing power leasing concept also saw gains, with companies like Nanxing Co. and Dawi Technology reaching their daily limits [8] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market continued to weaken, with Bitcoin dropping below $67,000, down 3.1% for the day. Concerns over potential shifts in monetary policy have been cited as a significant factor affecting the market [10]

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for 2025 to be between -480 million and -400 million yuan, indicating an increase in losses compared to the previous year [3] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between -490 million and -410 million yuan [3] - The previous year's net profit attributable to shareholders was -63.26 million yuan, with a total profit of -73.49 million yuan [4] Group 2 - The decline in profitability is attributed to changes in product and customer structure, as well as intensified market competition due to oversupply in the lithium battery industry, leading to lower product prices and reduced gross margin [6] - The company has conducted a comprehensive impairment test on inventory, resulting in increased asset impairment losses due to new inventory impairment provisions [6] - Difficulties in customer payments have lengthened accounts receivable aging, significantly increasing the provision for bad debts compared to the previous year [7] Group 3 - The company plans to enhance operational efficiency, optimize costs and expenses, improve customer structure, and strengthen collection efforts on accounts receivable to gradually increase gross margin and improve profitability [7]

Group 1 - The company, Xinyu Ren (688573.SH), forecasts a net loss attributable to shareholders of the parent company for 2025, estimated between -480 million to -400 million yuan, indicating an increase in losses compared to the previous year [1] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be between -490 million to -410 million yuan [1] - The company's product and customer structure has changed in 2025, and the lithium battery industry's overcapacity has intensified market competition, leading to a continuous decline in product prices, which has resulted in a decrease in overall gross profit and gross margin for the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xinyu Ren (688573.SH) is expected to report a significant increase in losses for the fiscal year 2025, with net profit attributable to the parent company projected to be between -480 million to -400 million yuan, indicating a worsening financial situation compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to the parent company, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, to be between -490 million to -410 million yuan for 2025 [1] - The expected losses represent a deterioration from the previous year's statutory disclosure data [1] Market Conditions - Changes in the company's product and customer structure are expected for the fiscal year 2025 [1] - The lithium battery industry is facing overcapacity, leading to intensified market competition and persistently low product prices [1] - These market conditions are contributing to a decline in the company's overall gross profit and gross profit margin [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant increase in losses for the fiscal year 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to the parent company owner between -480 million to -400 million yuan, indicating a worsening situation compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - The anticipated net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between -490 million to -410 million yuan for 2025 [1] - The company's comprehensive gross profit and gross margin are expected to decline due to adverse market conditions [1] Market Conditions - The lithium battery industry is experiencing overcapacity, leading to intensified market competition [1] - Continuous low product prices are impacting the company's financial performance [1] Product and Customer Structure - There will be changes in the company's product and customer structure for the fiscal year 2025 [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the lithium battery industry as "stronger than the market" [3]. Core Insights - The demand for power batteries and energy storage batteries remains robust, with significant increases in average prices for energy storage cells and systems [3]. - In December 2025, domestic battery production reached 201.7 GWh, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 62% and a month-on-month increase of about 14% [3]. - The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate surged to 168,000 CNY/ton as of January 23, 2026, reflecting a weekly increase of 9.80% [3]. - The monthly installation volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries in December 2025 was 79.8 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 30.82% [3]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on core enterprises in battery cells that lead in overseas layouts and the synergy between power batteries and energy storage [3]. Summary by Sections Production - In December 2025, the production of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 26,930 tons, a year-on-year increase of 32.48% [3]. Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was reported at 47,100 CNY/ton on January 9, 2026, with a 4.43% increase from January 4 [3]. - The average price of three-dimensional power cells rose to 0.47 CNY/Wh and remained stable [3]. Domestic Demand - The report indicates that the monthly installation volume of three-dimensional power batteries was 18.2 GWh, showing a year-on-year growth of 27.27% [3]. - The new energy storage application projects' monthly bidding capacity reached a record high of 21.8 GW/64 GWh in December 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 65% [3]. Overseas Demand - In December 2025, China's power battery exports amounted to 19.0 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.29% [3]. - Global new energy vehicle sales in November 2025 reached 2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8.53% [3].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - The production of positive electrode materials has increased significantly, with domestic battery production reaching 176.3 GWh in November 2025, a year-on-year growth of 49.66% [3] - Lithium carbonate prices have risen sharply, reaching 138,000 CNY per ton as of January 9, 2026, with a weekly increase of 17.92% [3] - The demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries has shown strong growth, with a monthly loading volume of 75.3 GWh in November 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 43.62% [3] Summary by Sections Production - In November 2025, the production of lithium iron phosphate positive electrode materials was 26.93 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 32.48% [3] Prices - As of January 9, 2026, the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was reported at 47,100 CNY per ton, up 4.43% from January 4, 2026 [3] - The average price of square lithium iron phosphate energy storage batteries remained stable, with slight increases noted for various capacities [3] Domestic Demand - The monthly loading volume for lithium iron phosphate batteries reached a new high in November 2025, with significant increases in both domestic and new energy storage project bidding capacities [3] Overseas Demand - In November 2025, China's power battery exports reached 21.2 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 69.60% [3] - Global new energy vehicle sales reached 2 million units in November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.53% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium has been accused of insider trading related to stock transactions of Jiangte Motor, with the case now transferred to the prosecution for review and indictment [3] Group 1: Company Operations - Ganfeng Lithium announced that all production and operational activities remain normal and orderly despite the legal issues [3] - The insider trading allegations are linked to a previously disclosed historical event, indicating that the company had communicated this issue earlier [3] Group 2: Legal Proceedings - The company received a notice from the Yichun Public Security Bureau regarding the transfer of the case for prosecution due to alleged insider trading by the company [3] - The case involves accusations of unit crime related to insider trading, specifically concerning transactions with Jiangte Motor, another company in the lithium battery supply chain [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to benefit from upward liquidity trends, with valuations currently at a relatively reasonable level compared to global equity markets, remaining at a medium to low level [1] - By 2026, earnings are anticipated to become the focal point for the market, with the improvement of listed companies' fundamentals driven by China's economic transformation and the development of emerging industries [1] - The narrowing decline in PPI is expected to support a further recovery in corporate profit margins, while attention should be paid to potential disruptions from the US midterm elections, geopolitical risks, and the pace of domestic economic recovery [1] Group 2 - The pharmaceutical sector has seen a slowdown in its upward momentum after a strong rally earlier in the year, with a significant reduction in the number of "doubling funds" [3] - As of November 28, only two pharmaceutical-themed funds maintained year-to-date doubling returns, indicating a shift in market sentiment from aggressive accumulation to cautious observation [3] - Despite the current transitional phase characterized by clear policy bottoms and visible valuation bottoms, the long-term growth logic of the pharmaceutical industry remains intact, supported by ongoing policy reinforcement and improvements in cash flow [3] Group 3 - Lithium battery production is expected to increase month-on-month in December, with a strong demand leading to price increases across multiple segments [5] - Sample companies reported a battery production of 143.3 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 2.3%, marking the first month-on-month increase in battery production since 2022 [5] - The tightening supply and strong demand in the energy storage sector are anticipated to lead to improved profitability across the lithium battery supply chain [5] Group 4 - The short-term trend of the market is strong, with significant inflows of incremental capital and a strong profit-making effect [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index's rebound is seen as a positive stimulus from insurance capital, although the actual implementation of beneficial policies is still pending [11] - The market is expected to maintain a slow bull trend, with potential for further liquidity easing and a focus on sectors such as new energy equipment, industrial machinery, computing power, and high-end manufacturing [11]