碳酸锂日报（2025 年 8 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 碳酸锂日报 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2511 合约跌 0.3%至 79380 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价下跌 1400 元/吨至 82500 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价下跌 1400 元/吨至 80200 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）下跌 160 元/吨至 77330 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 640 吨至 25630 吨。 2. 基本面来看，供应端生产小幅放缓，减量主要还是由于云母停产所带来的，后续来看，随着前期价 格走强和海外进口的增加，锂辉石提锂依旧有望持续增加，对于供应来看，有更多的锂矿转化为碳 酸锂的形式存在，但需要注意的是，目前矿价成交价格维持高位，对碳酸锂价格仍有一定支撑；需 求端 8 月合计需求环比增加 6%，9 月迎来传统旺季，下游排产或表现依旧景气，叠加客供比例下 降，下游备货意愿较强。库存方面，社会库存维持 14.1 万吨水平，但呈现出两周小幅去库状态，且 结构上显现出来下游采购行为增加。 3. 已知资源项目的生产问题 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent suspension of operations at the Jiangxi-based lithium mica mine, Jiangxiawo, owned by CATL, has sparked industry discussions regarding the duration of the shutdown and its implications for the lithium market [1][3][4]. Company Summary - CATL is currently processing the renewal application for its mining license, and it has stated that the suspension will not significantly impact its overall operations [3][14]. - The Jiangxiawo mine is CATL's largest lithium mica source, and its activities are crucial for the lithium mica and carbonate markets [4][14]. - The mine's average ore grade is approximately 0.27%, making it one of the higher-cost mines in Jiangxi [14]. Industry Summary - The suspension began on August 10, 2023, and has led to a noticeable decrease in mining activity and transportation of materials to the nearby processing plant [6][8]. - The lithium carbonate market is currently facing challenges, with production costs for lithium mica ranging from 80,000 to 120,000 yuan per ton, while current lithium carbonate prices do not cover these costs [14][17]. - The total output of lithium carbonate in 2024 is projected to be 1.33 million tons, with 222,000 tons (16.4%) sourced from lithium mica [13]. - The market is speculating on the reasons for the suspension, including potential misalignment between the licensed mining products and actual outputs, as well as broader industry trends towards reducing overproduction [17][18].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July 2025, the CPI year-on-year remained flat at 0.0%, down from a 0.1% increase in the previous month, with a cumulative decline of 0.1% from January to July[1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose to 0.8% year-on-year in July, indicating a slight improvement in the basic price level[2] - The decline in food CPI was significant, with a year-on-year drop expanding from -0.3% to -1.6%, primarily due to high base prices from the previous year[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 3.6% in July, maintaining the same decline as the previous month, with a cumulative decline of 2.9% from January to July[1] - The PPI month-on-month fell by 0.2%, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, indicating a stabilization in industrial prices[8] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to improved market price expectations, contributing to a narrowing of the PPI decline in July[9] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall price level remains weak, driven by insufficient consumer demand and a prolonged adjustment in the real estate market[6] - Future macroeconomic policies are expected to focus on promoting reasonable price recovery, with potential for further fiscal stimulus and interest rate cuts[7] - The uncertainty in the international trade environment poses ongoing downward pressure on export industrial prices, which may affect domestic PPI trends[12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of lithium carbonate futures contracts increased significantly, with the long - term contract basis changing from positive to negative. Due to the suspension of production at Ningde Times' Shixiawo mining area and no short - term resumption plan, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will rise significantly. Before overseas mines, lithium carbonate, and lithium sulfate significantly increase to make up for the gap, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to maintain an upward trend. Conversely, the resumption of the project needs to be closely monitored, and after resumption, the price will quickly fall to the price center with increased costs [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Price Trends - The price of lithium carbonate futures contracts increased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 76,640 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 7,720 yuan/ton; the 2511 contract closed at 76,960 yuan/ton, also a weekly increase of 7,720 yuan/ton. The spot price increased by 550 yuan/ton to 71,900 yuan/ton. The SMM spot - futures basis (2509 contract) decreased by 7,170 yuan/ton to - 4,740 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium/discount quote was - 170 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The spread between the 2509 - 2511 contracts was - 320 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Macro - On August 9, it was learned from multiple market sources that the mining end of Ningde Times' Shixiawo mining area will stop production at 12 o'clock tonight. Starting from August 10, the mining end of this mine will stop working, and there is no short - term resumption plan [2] 3.2.2 Supply - From July 28 to August 3, 2025, the total shipment of Australian lithium concentrate to China was 129,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 tons. In July, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was 20,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43%, of which 13,600 tons were exported to China, a month - on - month increase of 33% [2] 3.2.3 Demand - This week, the new energy passenger vehicle market continued to recover, with sales of 245,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 3.81% and a year - on - year increase of 9.38%. The new energy penetration rate slightly declined to 53% but still remained at a high level. The winning bid scale of energy storage continued to increase month - on - month. In July, the domestic energy storage market completed a total of 9.0GW/25.8GWh of tendering work, a month - on - month increase of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 34.24% [2] 3.2.4 Inventory - The total social inventory of lithium carbonate increased, with upstream destocking and downstream inventory accumulation. The lithium carbonate inventory was 142,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 692 tons, and the number of futures warehouse receipts increased to 18,800 tons [2] 3.3 Future Market Views - Due to the suspension of production at Ningde Times' Shixiawo mining area and no short - term resumption plan, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will rise significantly. Before overseas mines, lithium carbonate, and lithium sulfate significantly increase to make up for the gap, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to maintain an upward trend. Conversely, the resumption of the project needs to be closely monitored, and after resumption, the price will quickly fall to the price center with increased costs [3] 3.4 Trading Strategies 3.4.1 Single - sided - The price of the futures main contract is expected to range from 75,000 to 100,000 yuan/ton [4] 3.4.2 Inter - period - It is recommended to wait for the structure to strengthen, then consider the upward movement of the single - sided price. With a negative long - term contract basis, the number of warehouse receipts will increase significantly, which is suitable for reverse arbitrage [4] 3.4.3 Hedging - It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging after the price rebounds to a high level, and the hedging ratio should consider the annual output in the second half of the year [4]

Group 1 - In the first half of the year, the registration scale of "insurance version ABS" exceeded 180 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 46% [1] - 13 insurance asset management institutions registered 38 asset-backed plans, indicating a strong demand for stable cash flow and lower risk compared to equity assets [1] - The decline in operating loan rates below 3% indicates ongoing pressure on banks' net interest margins and profitability [1][2] Group 2 - The number of A-share companies intending to acquire IPO candidates has significantly increased, with 27 companies disclosing plans compared to 6 last year [1] - The surge in acquisition plans is attributed to policy benefits, increased exit demands from venture capital, accelerated industry consolidation, and valuation advantages of IPO candidates [1] - The solid-state battery technology is expected to gradually find applications across multiple fields, with significant advancements in energy density and safety [2] - The lithium battery industry is focusing on optimizing capacity structure, moving away from price competition towards quality and innovation [2] Group 3 - Apple COO Jeff Williams announced his retirement, marking a significant personnel change within the company [4] - The restructuring of Chang'an Group is expected to be finalized in August, indicating a strategic shift in the automotive sector [6] - GAC Fiat Chrysler has declared bankruptcy due to the lack of restructuring possibilities [6] Group 4 - ByteDance denied rumors regarding the sale of TikTok's U.S. operations to a consortium led by Oracle, stating the information is false [5] - The IPO of Wuhan Dazhong Dental Medical has seen a subscription rate of 108 times for its public offering in Hong Kong [7] - Meicheng Technology has initiated the IPO counseling process with CITIC Securities for its listing on A-shares [8]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, consistent with the previous month, resulting in a cumulative decline of 0.1% from January to May[1][4] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, remained below 1.0%, indicating a weak domestic price level primarily due to insufficient consumer demand[2][4] - The decline in CPI was influenced by a 6.1% year-on-year drop in energy prices, which contributed approximately 0.47 percentage points to the overall CPI decrease[5][4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI fell by 3.3% year-on-year in May, with the decline accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, reflecting weakened pricing momentum and increased drag from base effects[2][9] - Month-on-month, the PPI decreased by 0.4%, maintaining the same decline rate as the previous two months[2][9] - Key sectors such as coal, steel, and cement experienced price declines due to weak domestic demand and ample supply, contributing to the overall PPI decrease[8][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - CPI is expected to hover around 0% in June, while the PPI year-on-year decline is projected to remain at approximately -3.3%[3][12] - The government aims to implement macroeconomic policies to promote reasonable price recovery in the second half of the year, which may include fiscal measures to boost consumption and further interest rate cuts by the central bank[3][12] - The impact of external economic fluctuations on consumer confidence and potential downward pressure from "export to domestic" shifts will be critical to monitor[7][12]