华友钴业（603799.SH）1月5日在投资者互动平台表示，您好，公司印尼子公司镍矿料主要通过参股矿 山、长期供应合作协议等方式来保障供应，以市场化采购为补充。公司与淡水河谷印尼、福特汽车合作 的年产12万吨镍金属量Pomalaa湿法项目顺利推进，预计2026年底前建成投产。感谢您的关注！ （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：公司下一年镍产能是否会受到印尼限制配额影响？新 矿场建成后下一年是否会比今年大幅增加供应？预计产能是多少？ ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 78.98 CNY per share based on a 26x PE for 2025 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to have a net profit of 57.52 billion, 67.48 billion, and 80.84 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with EPS of 3.03, 3.56, and 4.26 CNY respectively [2][25]. - The market views the company as a beta play on cobalt prices, but the report emphasizes that the greater opportunity lies in nickel, which is currently at a cyclical low and may see a turning point around 2027-2028 [2][19]. Summary by Sections Nickel - Nickel prices are at a cyclical low, with potential for a turning point in supply-demand dynamics by 2027-2028. The company has established a full industry chain from nickel mining to intermediate products and final products, showcasing significant competitive advantages [3][20]. - The investment scale for nickel projects is substantial, creating high barriers to entry, which further strengthens the company's market position [3][20]. Cobalt - Cobalt supply is concentrated in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with significant policy disruptions affecting exports. Demand is stable, driven by electric vehicles, consumer electronics, and high-temperature alloys [4][22]. - The company’s cobalt business has shown resilience, with gross margins increasing even during price declines, indicating strong competitive positioning [4][22]. Three-way Precursor and Cathode Materials - The report anticipates that solid-state batteries will increase the market share of ternary materials, leading to stable profitability for the company [4][23]. - The company benefits from upstream raw material security, midstream manufacturing scale effects, and strong customer relationships, which are expected to reinforce its leading position in the industry [4][23]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 746.85 billion, 830.75 billion, and 1,038.31 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 22.5%, 11.2%, and 25.0% respectively [18][25]. - The company’s gross margins are expected to be 16.0%, 16.6%, and 16.2% over the same period, reflecting stable operational efficiency [18][25].

Core Viewpoint - The cobalt and nickel sector is experiencing a strong rally, with several companies reaching their daily price limits [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Companies such as Xingye Yinxin, Guocheng Mining, and Shengtun Mining have hit the daily limit up [1] - Other notable performers include Huayou Cobalt, Tibet Mining, ST Hezhong, Hainan Mining, Shengda Resources, Dangsheng Technology, and Hanrui Cobalt, which have shown significant price increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyin Securities indicates that the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.216 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.59% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company’s net profit for the first three quarters reached 4.216 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 39.59% compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Project Developments - The Pomalaa wet process project, with an annual production capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel metal, has commenced construction [1] - The Sorowako project, with an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons of nickel metal, is progressing smoothly in its preliminary preparations [1] Group 3: Resource and Cost Management - The Arcadia lithium mine's resource reserves have increased to 2.45 million tons, with an improved grade of 1.34% due to additional exploration [1] - The lithium sulfate project, with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons, has entered the equipment installation phase and is expected to be completed by the end of the year, which will further reduce lithium salt costs [1] Group 4: Material Supply and Partnerships - The first phase of the 50,000-ton ternary precursor project by Huaneng Indonesia has achieved bulk supply [1] - The first phase of the 25,000-ton cathode project in Hungary is progressing smoothly and is expected to be completed within the year [1] - The company has signed a long-term agreement with LG Energy, enhancing its competitiveness in lithium battery materials [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, considering its comprehensive upstream resource layout and the expected increase in cobalt prices [7]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 589.4 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 42.2 billion yuan, up 39.6% year-on-year [4]. - The company is making steady progress in nickel resource development in Indonesia and Zimbabwe, which strengthens its upstream resource security [5]. - The cobalt price is expected to rise due to the implementation of export quotas in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which will limit supply [6]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 217.4 billion yuan, a 40.9% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 15.1 billion yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year [4]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 58.65 billion yuan, 82.40 billion yuan, and 105.28 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21, 15, and 12 [7]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 17.2% in 2024 to 24.9% in 2027 [9]. Resource Development - The company is actively developing nickel, cobalt, and lithium resources in Indonesia and Zimbabwe, with significant projects underway, including a nickel project in Indonesia with an annual output of 120,000 tons [5]. - The company’s midstream hydrometallurgical capacity is being fully released, with high-nickel products accounting for over 60% of its output [5]. Market Outlook - The cobalt export quota policy in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to create a supply shortage, leading to a sustained increase in cobalt prices [6].

Core Viewpoint - Company Huayou Cobalt's nickel-cobalt project in Indonesia has exceeded production expectations due to stable raw material supply, continuous optimization of the process, and improved management levels [2] Group 1 - The company attributes the overproduction to multiple factors including stable raw material supply [2] - Continuous optimization of the production process has contributed to the increased output [2] - Enhanced management practices have played a significant role in achieving higher production levels [2]

Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.216 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.59% [1] - The company is expected to benefit from rising cobalt prices due to a shift from oversupply to shortage as inventory is consumed [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 alone, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.505 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.53% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.18%, aligning with expectations [1] Industry Outlook - Cobalt prices are anticipated to continue rising as supply-demand dynamics improve [1] - The company, as a leading player in the cobalt industry, has abundant cobalt raw material sources from Indonesia, positioning it to benefit significantly from price increases [1] Nickel Business Expansion - The company is expanding its nickel business counter-cyclically, with a planned capacity of 405,000 tons in Indonesia (both pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical processes) [1] - A potential reversal in nickel prices could lead to substantial increases in the company's performance [1] Competitive Positioning - The signing of large contracts is expected to enhance the company's core competitiveness in the lithium battery supply chain, effectively improving long-term profitability [1] - Current cobalt prices are on the rise, while nickel and lithium are at historical low prices, indicating potential for significant performance growth once prices recover [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the strong performance of Huayou Cobalt in Q3 2025, driven by integrated operations and rising cobalt prices, indicating a positive outlook for the company's profitability and growth potential [4][5]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Huayou Cobalt reported revenue of 58.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.22 billion yuan, up 39.6% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 4.01 billion yuan, reflecting a 31.9% increase [4]. - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 21.74 billion yuan, marking a 40.9% year-on-year growth and a 12.4% quarter-on-quarter increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.505 billion yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year and 3.2% quarter-on-quarter [4]. Operational Highlights - The integrated operational advantages are evident, with nickel wet-process capacity gradually being released, leading to sustained overproduction. In the first half of 2025, MHP shipments reached approximately 120,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of over 40%, with expectations for continued overproduction in Q3 [5]. - Cobalt prices have shown significant recovery, with average prices in Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 being 192,000, 239,000, and 267,000 yuan per ton, respectively, primarily benefiting from the export ban on cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. Project Developments - The Pomalaa project, with an annual production capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel metal, has commenced construction, while the Sorowako project, with a capacity of 60,000 tons, is progressing well [6]. - A lithium sulfate project in Zimbabwe, expected to produce 50,000 tons annually, is in the equipment installation phase and is anticipated to be completed by the end of the year, which will further reduce lithium salt production costs [6]. - The first phase of the ternary precursor project in Indonesia, with a capacity of 50,000 tons, has achieved bulk supply, and the first phase of the cathode material project in Hungary, with a capacity of 25,000 tons, is expected to be completed within the year [6]. Market Outlook - The cobalt export quota system from the Democratic Republic of Congo, effective from October 16, 2025, allows for exports of 3,625 tons, 7,250 tons, and 7,250 tons for the last quarter of 2025, with a total export capacity of 96,600 tons from 2026 to 2027 [7]. - Based on the 2024 cobalt production in the Democratic Republic of Congo, there is an estimated reduction of 141,600 tons in supply from February 22 to October 15, 2025. Assuming stable demand, the cobalt supply-demand balance for 2025-2027 is projected to be -75,000 tons, -33,000 tons, and -33,000 tons, respectively [7].

Core Insights - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates that Huayou Cobalt's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 4.22 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.6% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.51 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5% and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [1] - The company faced a foreign exchange loss of 250 million yuan in Q3, but overall performance met expectations [1] Financial Performance - The cost of MHP nickel for the first half of 2025 was 12,000 USD per ton, with an expected profit of around 3,000 USD per ton in Q3 due to rising costs from sulfur and liquid alkali [1] - The company is projected to contribute 3 to 3.5 billion yuan in nickel profits for 2025, with cobalt prices expected to rise above 400,000 yuan per ton, indicating significant profit elasticity for 2026 [1] Production and Sales - Copper product shipments are expected to reach 20,000 tons in Q3, showing a slight increase quarter-on-quarter, with an annual forecast of 90,000 tons (20,000 tons from self-owned mines and 70,000 tons from processing), contributing 700 to 800 million yuan in profit [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, shipments of ternary precursors are expected to exceed 80,000 tons, with Q3 shipments reaching 30,000 tons, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of over 40% [1] - The annual shipment target for ternary precursors is set at 110,000 tons, indicating a year-on-year growth [1] Valuation and Rating - Given that nickel prices are currently at a low point, the company is assigned a target price of 95 yuan based on a 20x PE ratio for 2026, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates that Huayou Cobalt's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 reached 2.71 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 62.3%, with the second quarter net profit at 1.46 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27% and a year-on-year increase of 16.5% [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Huayou Cobalt's net profit contributions from Huayue and Huafei totaled 1.26 billion yuan [1] - The cost of MHP nickel is reported at 12,000 USD per ton, while the average nickel price in Q2 was 15,500 USD per ton, leading to an estimated profit of 3,500 USD per ton [1] - The company is expected to contribute 3 to 3.5 billion yuan in nickel profits for the year 2025 [1] Market Outlook - Nickel prices are currently at a low point, suggesting significant price elasticity in the future [1] - The increase in cobalt prices since Q2 is expected to enhance performance, with a potential second wave of price increases in the latter half of the year [1] - The shipment of ternary cathodes saw a substantial quarter-on-quarter increase, with an annual growth forecast of over 90% [1] Valuation - Given the current nickel price situation, the company is assigned a target price of 53 yuan based on a 15x PE ratio for the year 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]