经济观察网 华友钴业（603799）近期股价呈现震荡走势，尽管镍价受到印尼供应收缩消息的利好提 振。根据最新数据，截至2026年2月12日收盘，公司股价报75.15元，单日上涨2.45%，但近5个交易日振 幅达12.39%，表现为冲高回落态势。震荡原因可从以下几个方面分析： 股价与资金表现 印尼政策催化镍价上涨：2月11日，印尼政府将全球最大镍矿韦达湾的年度配额从4200万吨大幅削减至 1200万吨，同时设定2026年全国镍矿RKAB目标为2.6亿–2.7亿吨，较2025年3.79亿吨下降约30%。受此 影响，伦镍当日涨超2%，沪镍主连2月11日收盘涨4.02%至139360元/吨。 未来发展 印尼供应收缩政策可能推动镍价中长期中枢上移，对华友钴业等一体化企业形成成本优势。但短期需关 注政策落地节奏及春节后下游需求复苏情况。若库存去化不及预期，镍价反弹空间或受限。 综上，华友钴业股价震荡反映了镍价"政策利好驱动"与"基本面疲软"之间的拉锯，同时受技术面压力、 资金情绪及宏观环境多重因素影响。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 公司基本面 业绩利好与估值压力：公司2025年业绩预告显示归母净利润58. ...

Core Viewpoint - The cobalt and nickel sector is experiencing a strong performance, with several companies seeing significant stock price increases [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The cobalt and nickel sector has shown strength, with Baichuan Co. and Greeenmei reaching their daily price limit [1] - Companies such as Zhongwei New Materials, Guocheng Mining, Huayou Cobalt, and Hanrui Cobalt have also reported notable stock price increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The cobalt and nickel sector is experiencing a strong performance, with several stocks reaching their daily limit up, indicating positive market sentiment and potential investment opportunities in this industry [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Baichuan Co., Ltd. and Greeenmei have hit the daily limit up, showcasing significant investor interest [1]. - Other notable stocks with substantial gains include Zhongwei New Materials, Guocheng Mining, Huayou Cobalt, Hanrui Cobalt, and Tengyuan Cobalt, reflecting a broader upward trend in the sector [1].

华友钴业（603799.SH）1月5日在投资者互动平台表示，您好，公司印尼子公司镍矿料主要通过参股矿 山、长期供应合作协议等方式来保障供应，以市场化采购为补充。公司与淡水河谷印尼、福特汽车合作 的年产12万吨镍金属量Pomalaa湿法项目顺利推进，预计2026年底前建成投产。感谢您的关注！ （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：公司下一年镍产能是否会受到印尼限制配额影响？新 矿场建成后下一年是否会比今年大幅增加供应？预计产能是多少？ ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 78.98 CNY per share based on a 26x PE for 2025 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to have a net profit of 57.52 billion, 67.48 billion, and 80.84 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with EPS of 3.03, 3.56, and 4.26 CNY respectively [2][25]. - The market views the company as a beta play on cobalt prices, but the report emphasizes that the greater opportunity lies in nickel, which is currently at a cyclical low and may see a turning point around 2027-2028 [2][19]. Summary by Sections Nickel - Nickel prices are at a cyclical low, with potential for a turning point in supply-demand dynamics by 2027-2028. The company has established a full industry chain from nickel mining to intermediate products and final products, showcasing significant competitive advantages [3][20]. - The investment scale for nickel projects is substantial, creating high barriers to entry, which further strengthens the company's market position [3][20]. Cobalt - Cobalt supply is concentrated in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with significant policy disruptions affecting exports. Demand is stable, driven by electric vehicles, consumer electronics, and high-temperature alloys [4][22]. - The company’s cobalt business has shown resilience, with gross margins increasing even during price declines, indicating strong competitive positioning [4][22]. Three-way Precursor and Cathode Materials - The report anticipates that solid-state batteries will increase the market share of ternary materials, leading to stable profitability for the company [4][23]. - The company benefits from upstream raw material security, midstream manufacturing scale effects, and strong customer relationships, which are expected to reinforce its leading position in the industry [4][23]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 746.85 billion, 830.75 billion, and 1,038.31 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 22.5%, 11.2%, and 25.0% respectively [18][25]. - The company’s gross margins are expected to be 16.0%, 16.6%, and 16.2% over the same period, reflecting stable operational efficiency [18][25].

Core Viewpoint - The cobalt and nickel sector is experiencing a strong rally, with several companies reaching their daily price limits [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Companies such as Xingye Yinxin, Guocheng Mining, and Shengtun Mining have hit the daily limit up [1] - Other notable performers include Huayou Cobalt, Tibet Mining, ST Hezhong, Hainan Mining, Shengda Resources, Dangsheng Technology, and Hanrui Cobalt, which have shown significant price increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyin Securities indicates that the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.216 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.59% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company’s net profit for the first three quarters reached 4.216 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 39.59% compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Project Developments - The Pomalaa wet process project, with an annual production capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel metal, has commenced construction [1] - The Sorowako project, with an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons of nickel metal, is progressing smoothly in its preliminary preparations [1] Group 3: Resource and Cost Management - The Arcadia lithium mine's resource reserves have increased to 2.45 million tons, with an improved grade of 1.34% due to additional exploration [1] - The lithium sulfate project, with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons, has entered the equipment installation phase and is expected to be completed by the end of the year, which will further reduce lithium salt costs [1] Group 4: Material Supply and Partnerships - The first phase of the 50,000-ton ternary precursor project by Huaneng Indonesia has achieved bulk supply [1] - The first phase of the 25,000-ton cathode project in Hungary is progressing smoothly and is expected to be completed within the year [1] - The company has signed a long-term agreement with LG Energy, enhancing its competitiveness in lithium battery materials [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, considering its comprehensive upstream resource layout and the expected increase in cobalt prices [7]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 589.4 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 42.2 billion yuan, up 39.6% year-on-year [4]. - The company is making steady progress in nickel resource development in Indonesia and Zimbabwe, which strengthens its upstream resource security [5]. - The cobalt price is expected to rise due to the implementation of export quotas in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which will limit supply [6]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 217.4 billion yuan, a 40.9% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 15.1 billion yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year [4]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 58.65 billion yuan, 82.40 billion yuan, and 105.28 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21, 15, and 12 [7]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 17.2% in 2024 to 24.9% in 2027 [9]. Resource Development - The company is actively developing nickel, cobalt, and lithium resources in Indonesia and Zimbabwe, with significant projects underway, including a nickel project in Indonesia with an annual output of 120,000 tons [5]. - The company’s midstream hydrometallurgical capacity is being fully released, with high-nickel products accounting for over 60% of its output [5]. Market Outlook - The cobalt export quota policy in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to create a supply shortage, leading to a sustained increase in cobalt prices [6].

Core Viewpoint - Company Huayou Cobalt's nickel-cobalt project in Indonesia has exceeded production expectations due to stable raw material supply, continuous optimization of the process, and improved management levels [2] Group 1 - The company attributes the overproduction to multiple factors including stable raw material supply [2] - Continuous optimization of the production process has contributed to the increased output [2] - Enhanced management practices have played a significant role in achieving higher production levels [2]

Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.216 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.59% [1] - The company is expected to benefit from rising cobalt prices due to a shift from oversupply to shortage as inventory is consumed [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 alone, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.505 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.53% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.18%, aligning with expectations [1] Industry Outlook - Cobalt prices are anticipated to continue rising as supply-demand dynamics improve [1] - The company, as a leading player in the cobalt industry, has abundant cobalt raw material sources from Indonesia, positioning it to benefit significantly from price increases [1] Nickel Business Expansion - The company is expanding its nickel business counter-cyclically, with a planned capacity of 405,000 tons in Indonesia (both pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical processes) [1] - A potential reversal in nickel prices could lead to substantial increases in the company's performance [1] Competitive Positioning - The signing of large contracts is expected to enhance the company's core competitiveness in the lithium battery supply chain, effectively improving long-term profitability [1] - Current cobalt prices are on the rise, while nickel and lithium are at historical low prices, indicating potential for significant performance growth once prices recover [1]