"反内卷式竞争"的投资机会 20250702 摘要 反内卷政策升级，人民日报等媒体密集发文，预示行业协会将密集发文 控价控产能，主要集中在新能源车和光伏行业，可能引发市场预期波动， 影响相关公司股价和大宗商品价格。 大宗商品价格下跌源于需求侧居民收入和地产下滑。传统行业经过前期 去产能和企业整合，供给侧大幅出清空间有限，本轮周期股反弹更多源 于市场内生需求，而非供给侧改革。 新能源车和光伏领域是反内卷政策重点，政府鼓励民营企业信心。未来 或通过控制价格实现红利，但难以复制 2015-2016 年供给侧改革驱动 的大宗商品牛市。 钢铁行业：限产政策短期影响有限，但制造业需求超预期增长，成本端 双胶价格下跌提升钢厂利润。关注电炉减产及低位库存对钢铁价格和利 润的推动作用，预计 7-8 月钢铁股将有一波反弹行情。 水泥行业：协会推动供给侧改革，要求企业严格按照设计产能生产，有 望提升标的配置性价比。今年企业具备底线思维，避免激烈价格战，确 保行业微盈利，但需求淡季和错峰执行力度不足构成不利因素。 Q&A 如何理解中央财经委关于建设全国统一大市场的政策？ 中央财经委近期强调建设全国统一大市场，旨在依法依规治理企业低价 ...

转债周周谈｜成长为矛，业绩为锚 20250702 摘要 中东局势及国内政策利好驱动市场 N 型震荡，可转债因其跟涨弹性及抗 跌性优于正股，结构性行情中小微盘和银行股上涨利好转债，低利率环 境下的资金追逐加剧了涨跌不对称效应。 外部局势缓和，国内无风险利率下降，人民币预期稳定，政策支持力度 大，中美伦敦框架协议降低关税风险，人形机器人等新科技产业趋势带 来科技板块结构性机会，共同构成 7 月权益市场乐观的基础。 A 股业绩预告、中美关税谈判及国内政策窗口期是影响 7 月市场行情的 主要因素，应关注业绩确定性强的细分方向，如算力硬件、PCB 光模块、 AI 服务器、风电、军工、新消费及自主可控科技板块。 银行转债加速退出，释放资金或将回流纯债市场或寻找新的底仓，如高 YTM 剩余期限短到期正 YTM 双低转债，同时光伏行业供需格局改善， 头部公司减产及收并购或使其成为潜在底仓选择。 推荐业绩确定性强和成长性高的投资方向，包括 AI、军工、半导体、人 形机器人等科技成长板块，以及新消费和周期成长板块，如算力硬件 （景旺、华正）、半导体产业链（安吉）、军工板块（航宇、国力）等。 Q&A 6 月份的市场行情如何？ 6 ...

7月2日，小米创始人、董事长兼CEO雷军举行返场直播。 在直播中，雷军也谈到了此事，雷军表示，看到了个别车企销售的"截胡"话术，"我也认真学习了一 下，实话实说，内容不太准确，甚至有一些诋毁和歪曲"，雷军强调，"我觉得大可不必"，每个产品 有自己的优点，自信的话讲自己优势就行，没必要诋毁。 此外，雷军表示，当前YU7的锁单数量超出想象，希望大家可以稍微多一点点耐心。"如果大家急着 用车，我觉得国产新能源车都还不错，比如明天将发布的小鹏G7、月底将发布的理想i8，当然， Model Y也不错。" 对于年度目标交付量，雷军表示，将尽量扩产，年初交付目标是30万辆，扩产后目标修正到35万 辆。 对于小米YU7上线即爆单的情况，雷军表示，"看到（三分钟）大定数据的第一时间我都愣住了，看 了好几遍才跟现场的人分享。三分钟大定20万单，一小时大定28.9万单，这个数字绝对创造了中国 汽车工业的奇迹，所以大家都非常震惊。" 据证券时报，由于YU7订单"爆单"，目前，小米汽车订购数据显示，YU7标准版锁单后预计交付时 间已经排到58周以后，有市场消息称，多家车企推出"截胡"小米YU7订单的策略。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it [27]. Core Insights - The NEV sector in China is experiencing intense competition, with performance among major manufacturers becoming increasingly divergent. The focus is expected to shift from price wars to quality and service upgrades as regulatory scrutiny tightens [8][16]. - BYD's June sales reached 383,000 units, a 12% year-on-year increase, while Geely sold 236,000 units, up 42% year-on-year. Both companies are adjusting their annual targets upwards due to strong first-half performance [9][10]. - Leapmotor achieved record sales of 48,000 units in June, marking a 139% year-on-year increase, while Li Auto and Xiaomi saw month-on-month declines in sales [11][14]. - NIO's wholesale sales were 25,000 units in June, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, but the company faces challenges from competitors in the same price segment [15][16]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - BYD's first-half sales totaled 2.146 million units, achieving 39% of its annual target, while Geely's first-half sales reached 1.409 million units, with 47% of its revised target already met [9][10]. - Leapmotor's cumulative deliveries for the first half were 222,000 units, and it is expected to maintain strong sales momentum with new product launches [11]. - Li Auto's June deliveries were 36,000 units, down 24% year-on-year, while XPeng delivered 35,000 units, marking a 224% year-on-year increase [13][14]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a shift in competition dynamics, with companies focusing on service upgrades and technological advancements rather than aggressive pricing strategies due to regulatory pressures [8][16]. - The performance of various brands indicates a competitive landscape where established players like BYD and Geely are facing challenges from emerging brands like Leapmotor and NIO [15][16]. Future Outlook - The second half of the year is expected to see continued volatility in sales as new models are launched and companies adapt to stricter regulations. Brands that can offer better value and brand equity are likely to outperform [16].

2025 年 7 月 2 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 24,072 | -0.87 | 41.21 | | 恒生国企 | 8,678 | -0.96 | 50.44 | | 恒生科技 | 5,303 | -0.72 | 40.87 | | 上证综指 | 3,444 | 0.59 | 15.78 | | 深证综指 | 2,075 | 1.09 | 12.90 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,153 | 1.35 | 13.83 | | 美国道琼斯 | 44,095 | 0.63 | 16.99 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,205 | 0.52 | 30.09 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 20,370 | 0.47 | 35.70 | | 德国 DAX | 23,910 | -0.51 | 42.73 | | ...

消息面上，经历抢装潮短期提振后，光伏玻璃再次进入价格下行区间，头部企业或将发起新一轮联合减 产以稳定市场价格。据业内人士透露，由于目前需求低迷及持续亏损情况下，部分光伏玻璃企业采取减 产或者冷修工作，整体产能呈现下降趋势。 新能源车方面，车企集中公布了6月成绩单，比亚迪继续雄踞榜首，6月销量超38万辆；小鹏汽车交付量 同比增224%，连续8个月超3万台。鸿蒙智行全系交付5.3万辆，零跑汽车交付4.8万辆，均再创新高。理 想汽车交付3.6万辆，同比下降24%。极氪连续四个月销量超4万台；小米汽车交付超2.5万台；蔚来交付 2.5万辆。 华泰证券指出，25年1-5月主流整车企业销量目标完成率普遍在25-45%之间，比亚迪、吉利、赛力斯完 成度高，Q3预计"淡季不淡"。对多品牌的全年销量目标进行统计，国内传统车企和新势力车企平均目 标达成率为35%/30%。比亚迪、吉利、小鹏、零跑达成率超越24年同期，其中吉利、小鹏目标达成率较 高，在40%以上。该机构认为，补贴政策和新能源车优质供给周期（银河A7、方程豹钛7、小鹏G7、理 想i8、零跑B01等）共振，预计Q3-Q4自主品牌销量趋势及市占率持续向上。 截至2025 ...

Group 1: IPO Activity - A-share IPO activity has surged in the first half of 2025, with a total of 177 companies accepted for listing, marking a significant increase compared to previous years [1] - In June alone, 150 companies were accepted, accounting for over 80% of the total for the first half of the year, setting a new monthly record [1] - The increase is attributed to the gradual easing of the "phase tightening IPO" policy and the withdrawal of non-compliant applications, which has reduced pressure on exchanges and improved acceptance and review efficiency [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Signals - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that most committee members expect a rate cut later this year, depending on economic data [3] - Following Powell's comments, the probability of a rate cut in July rose to approximately 25%, up from less than 20% previously [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Fed will restart rate cuts in September, with expected cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December [3] Group 3: Automotive Industry Performance - BYD reported June sales of 382,500 new energy vehicles, up from 341,700 in the same month last year, with a cumulative sales increase of 33.04% year-on-year [8] - Great Wall Motors sold 110,700 vehicles in June, a year-on-year increase of 12.86%, with a total of 197,700 vehicles sold in the first half of the year [8] - Xiaomi's automotive division delivered over 25,000 vehicles in June [8] Group 4: Innovation in Pharmaceuticals - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, emphasizing the use of healthcare data for drug research [10] - The measures aim to enhance collaboration among healthcare, insurance, and pharmaceutical sectors to facilitate innovative drug development [10] Group 5: Corporate Developments - He Yuan Bio's IPO application has been approved, marking the first company to pass under the newly restarted fifth set of standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [14] - The company plans to raise 2.4 billion yuan for projects including the construction of a human albumin industrialization base and new drug research [14] - Zhongke Environmental announced the acquisition of 100% equity in two environmental companies for a total of 354 million yuan, expanding its waste treatment capabilities [19]

金十数据整理：7月1日欧盘美盘重要新闻汇总 国内新闻： 1. 习近平主持召开中央财经委员会第六次会议强调，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，推动海洋经济高质 量发展。 5. 比亚迪股份：6月公司新能源车销量为38.26万辆，去年同期为34.17万辆。 国际新闻： 1. 美国5月JOLTs职位空缺意外升至去年11月以来最高，交易员略微削减美联储降息预期。 2. 油价今晚上调！加满一箱油将多花9元。 3. 科创板第五套标准重启后，首家拟IPO企业禾元生物过会。 4. 2025年暑期档电影票房突破20亿。 2. 媒体：美国官员寻求缩小贸易协议范围，力争7月9日前达成协议。 3. 特朗普称愿意推迟"大而美"法案通过的最后期限。 4. 特朗普威胁让DOGE审查马斯克及其公司所获补贴，马斯克回应：全部砍掉，就现在。 5. 特朗普称不想拥有电动汽车，因为可能会爆炸，并扬言"考虑驱逐"马斯克。 6. 媒体称印度寻求本周与美国达成临时贸易协议。美国财长贝森特：与印度的贸易协议"非常接近"。 7. 欧洲央行论坛—①美联储主席鲍威尔：无法断言7月降息是否为时过早，不排除任何一次会议。②欧 洲央行行长拉加德：并未宣告任务完成，但目标已达到 ...

Suspension and Resumption of Trading - Hangzhou Gaoxin's controlling shareholder has changed to Jirong Weiye, and the stock has resumed trading [1] - Shangwei New Materials is planning a significant matter that may lead to a change in company control, resulting in stock suspension [1] Mergers and Acquisitions - Fengfan Co., Ltd. plans to acquire 100% equity of eight photovoltaic power station project companies in Yangzhou for 48 million yuan [2] Investment Cooperation and Operational Status - Newland has established an overseas subsidiary and obtained a US MSB license, covering digital currency trading and other scenarios [3] - Guoxin Technology has won a bid for an automotive airbag ignition driver chip project, with a total price of 46 million yuan [4] - Xianhe Co., Ltd. plans to invest approximately 11 billion yuan to construct an integrated high-performance paper-based new material project for bamboo pulp paper [5] - Moulding Technology has been designated for an exterior parts project by a well-known North American electric vehicle company, with expected total sales of 1.236 billion yuan [6] - Changchun Gaoxin intends to authorize the management to initiate overseas share issuance and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [7] - Seres sold 46,086 new energy vehicles in June, a year-on-year increase of 4.44%, with cumulative sales from January to June at 172,100 units, a year-on-year decrease of 14.35% [7] - BYD sold 382,600 new energy vehicles in June, compared to 341,700 units in the same period last year; cumulative sales from January to June reached 2.146 million units, a year-on-year increase of 33.04% [7] - Great Wall Motors sold 110,700 units in June, a year-on-year increase of 12.86% [8] Performance Changes - Kidswant expects a net profit of 120 million to 160 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 50.00% to 100.00% [9] - Guomai Technology anticipates a net profit of 125 million to 156 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 60.52% to 100.33% [10] - New Hecheng expects a net profit of 3.3 billion to 3.75 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 70%, driven by increased sales volume and prices of key products in the nutrition segment [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company Fudi Technology (孚能科技) reported a decline in revenue for 2024, with a significant loss reduction compared to the previous year, indicating potential operational challenges despite improved profit margins [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for 2024 was 11.68 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.94% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -0.33 billion yuan, a narrowing of losses by 82.22% year-on-year [2]. - The non-recurring net profit was -0.37 billion yuan, an increase of 78.97% year-on-year [2]. - The basic earnings per share were -0.27 yuan [2]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 11.32%, up by 7.20 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The net margin was -2.84%, an increase of 8.52 percentage points compared to the previous year [2]. Expense Management - Total operating expenses for 2024 were 1.60 billion yuan, a reduction of 0.50 billion yuan year-on-year [2]. - The expense ratio was 13.71%, an increase of 0.93 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Sales expenses decreased by 73.91% year-on-year, while management expenses increased by 0.68% [2]. - Research and development expenses decreased by 22.34%, and financial expenses increased by 145.06% [2]. Workforce Changes - The number of employees at the company in 2024 was 6,463, a decrease of 91 from the end of the previous year [2]. Executive Compensation - The total compensation for the board of directors, supervisors, and senior management in 2024 was 15.11 million yuan [4]. - The chairman, Wang Yu (王瑀), received a salary of 4.20 million yuan, an increase of 73.63% from the previous year's salary of 2.42 million yuan [4].