Market Overview - The S&P 500 is on track for its first monthly drop in six months, while the Nasdaq may fall for the first time since March, primarily due to weakness in the tech sector [1][5] - Super Micro Computer is poised to be the worst performer in the S&P 500 for November, alongside other losers like Coinbase, Oracle, and Palantir [2] Trading Operations - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is restoring operations after a significant outage caused by a cooling issue at a data center provider, which disrupted trading across various markets [3][39] - Bitcoin has rebounded above $91,000 but is still on track for its worst month since February, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing significant outflows [4] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector has emerged as a strong performer in the fourth quarter, while the tech sector has declined by 5.6% [7] - Small caps and micro caps have shown strong buying interest, indicating potential bullish momentum as they challenge previous highs [10][13] Gold and Commodities - Gold has increased by 24% over the last three months, driven by expectations of lower interest rates and central bank buying [14][16] - The gold to silver ratio has dropped to 78, indicating bullish potential for silver if it breaks down further [46] Retail Sector Insights - Retail spending is expected to increase this holiday season, reflecting a shift in consumer sentiment towards more optimistic spending [18][20] - Companies like Kohl's, Target, and Macy's have reached 52-week highs, indicating positive trends in the retail sector [20] Transportation Sector - The transportation sector has shown signs of recovery, with the IYT ETF regaining its position above the 50-day moving average [24] Technology Sector Analysis - The tech sector, particularly semiconductors, has faced challenges, with concerns about saturation and energy demand impacting future performance [27][28] - Despite recent corrections, major tech companies like Google are still viewed as having strong long-term potential [28] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin's recent price movements suggest a potential bottom around $80,000, with a focus on maintaining support levels around $88,000 to $89,000 [35][36] - Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Chainlink are being monitored for potential rebounds, with specific price levels identified as critical for future performance [37][38] Emerging Markets - India's economy has shown surprising growth, with a GDP increase of 8.2% for the quarter ended September, positioning it favorably among emerging markets [51][52]

Core Insights - Expectations for a December rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve have intensified, with major banks and market participants increasingly viewing it as the most likely scenario [1][2] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates an 85% probability of a quarter-point reduction in December, influenced by weak payroll and inflation data [2][3] - A cooling labor market and limited hiring are pressuring policymakers to stimulate growth, making a rate cut imminent to support the labor market and guard against economic downturns [3] Sectors Poised to Benefit From Lower Rates - **Technology Stocks**: Lower rates increase the present value of future profits, significantly boosting current valuations for high-growth technology companies [5] - **Small-Cap Stocks**: These companies are more sensitive to domestic economic conditions and benefit from reduced debt servicing costs and increased access to affordable capital [6] - **Financials**: Banks with diversified operations may see improved loan activity due to lower rates [6] - **Consumer Discretionary & Utilities**: Lower interest rates enhance consumer credit access and spending power, benefiting profit margins in consumer discretionary companies, while utilities benefit from reduced financing costs [7] ETFs to Consider - **Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK)**: AUM of $91.47 billion, exposure to 70 tech companies, top holdings include Nvidia (14.24%) and Apple (13.49%), has gained 22.6% year to date [9][10] - **iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)**: AUM of $71.69 billion, exposure to 1,958 small-cap U.S. companies, has gained 12.8% year to date [11] - **Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF)**: AUM of $51.45 billion, exposure to 75 financial services companies, has risen 10.7% year to date [12][13] - **Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY)**: AUM of $23 billion, exposure to 49 consumer discretionary companies, has gained 5.4% year to date [14][15] - **Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU)**: AUM of $22.07 billion, exposure to 31 utility companies, has surged 21.4% year to date [16][17]

Core Insights - The Q3 earnings season has shown solid performance, with 95% of S&P 500 companies reporting results and an expected 13.4% increase in earnings per share, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [2][3] Group 1: Earnings Performance - Analysts had initially expected a 7.9% increase in earnings per share for Q3, indicating a significant upward revision in expectations as the quarter progressed [3] - If the anticipated 13.4% earnings growth holds, it represents an acceleration from the 12% growth rate reported in Q2 [2] Group 2: Consumer Sentiment - Recent reports from Abercrombie & Fitch, Dick's Sporting Goods, and Burlington Stores indicate that softening consumer sentiment is affecting purchasing decisions [4] - Upcoming earnings reports from retailers such as Macy's, Dollar Tree, American Eagle Outfitters, and GameStop will provide further insights into consumer behavior as the holiday shopping season approaches [4] Group 3: Upcoming Reports - The first week of December will feature earnings reports from companies including Salesforce, CrowdStrike, MongoDB, Marvell, Okta, C3.ai, and Snowflake, which are expected to highlight ongoing trends in corporate performance [5]

WEAK MONTH. >> IT'S GOING THE OTHER WAY NOW. THERE'S SE TRADERS THAT WERE LIKE THEY WERE HAVING WITHDRAWAL SYMPTOMS, BEING UNABLE TO TRADE FOR ALL MORNING.>> WELL HERE YOU GO FOLKS. >> OKAY. OUR NEXT OUR NEXT GUEST WILL GIVE US HIS INSIGHTS ON HOLIDAY RETAIL AND THE STATE OF THE CONSUMER.JOINING US NOW OF THE FORBES COMPANY, WHO OWNS, DEVELOPS AND MANAGES HIGH END SHOPPING CENTERS IN FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN. SO THE STORY THAT WE GET, NATE, IS THAT YOU'RE OKAY. YOU'RE ON THE UPPER PART OF THE K-SHAPED ECONOMY.G ...

Core Insights - Target is enhancing the holiday shopping experience through AI and personalization, aiming to make it more enjoyable and efficient for consumers [1][2] - The Cyber Monday sale offers discounts of up to 50% on a wide range of products, available both online and in-store [3][6] Group 1: AI and Digital Innovation - Target's app now features a shopping experience integrated with ChatGPT, providing a curated and conversational shopping environment [5] - The AI-powered Gift Finder assists customers in finding personalized gifts quickly [5] - A new List Scanner feature allows users to scan handwritten wish lists for easier shopping [5] Group 2: Cyber Monday Sale Details - The Cyber Monday event runs from November 30 to December 1, featuring thousands of deals across various categories [3] - Discounts include up to 50% off on clothing, tech, toys, and home goods, with specific brands highlighted [6] - Additional savings of 5% are available for customers using a Target Circle Card [7] Group 3: Target Plus Marketplace - Target Plus has expanded its range of trusted marketplace partners, doubling its offerings over the past year [8] - Shopping through Target Plus provides benefits similar to shopping at Target, including discounts and free shipping on qualifying orders [8] Group 4: Company Overview - Target operates nearly 2,000 stores and offers online shopping at Target.com, focusing on delivering joy and affordability to families [10]

Core Viewpoint - Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. is participating in the Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference, indicating its engagement with investors and the market [1]. Company Overview - Grocery Outlet is a high-growth, extreme value retailer based in Emeryville, California, specializing in quality, name-brand consumables and fresh products [3]. - The company operates over 560 stores across various states including California, Washington, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Idaho, Nevada, Maryland, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Georgia, Alabama, Delaware, Kentucky, and Virginia [3]. Event Details - Jason Potter, the CEO of Grocery Outlet, will participate in a fireside chat on December 3 at 1:30 p.m. Eastern Time / 10:30 a.m. Pacific Time [1]. - A live audio webcast of the event will be available online, with a replay accessible for 180 days post-event [2].

CME Group sign at NYMEX in New York.Adam Jeffery | CNBCThis is CNBC's Morning Squawk newsletter. Subscribe here to receive future editions in your inbox.Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:1. Down and outStock futures trading was halted this morning after a data center "cooling issue" took down several Chicago Mercantile Exchange services. Individual stocks were still trading before the bell, while the CME said futures indexes and options trading would open fully at 8:30 ...

Core Insights - A record number of shoppers, approximately 186.9 million, are expected to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, marking an increase of about 3 million from last year [4] - Black Friday remains the largest shopping day, with around 130.4 million shoppers planning to participate, followed by Cyber Monday at 40% and Small Business Saturday at 36% [5] Retail Performance - Costco and Walmart are identified as key winners in the holiday shopping season due to their strong brand presence and ability to offer low prices [6] - Costco's stock is down 2.5% year-to-date with a HOLD rating, while Walmart is up nearly 18% year-to-date, also holding a HOLD rating [7] Consumer Behavior - Direct-to-consumer brands face challenges as consumers increasingly price-check items on platforms like Amazon, leading to heightened price sensitivity [8][9] - Luxury brands like Louis Vuitton are performing well, as the top 10% of earners contribute significantly to consumption despite broader consumer pullbacks [10] Economic Context - The National Retail Federation forecasts total holiday spending to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, with sales growth projected between 3.7% and 4.2% for 2024 [13] - Retail stocks have struggled overall this year, with both consumer discretionary and staples sectors lagging behind the broader market due to economic pressures [14] Notable Retailers - Discount chains such as Dollar General and Dollar Tree have seen stock increases of over 30% this year, while brands like Coca-Cola have gained around 16% [15]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures halted trading on Friday due to a data center glitch, impacting trade in US Treasuries and crude oil [1] - The benchmark index tracking ETFs was trading higher, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) up 0.30% at $681.70 and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) up 0.42% at $616.85 [3] Company Performance - Tilray Brands Inc. (TLRY) fell 14.93% in premarket trading after announcing a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, maintaining a weaker price trend [7] - Direct Digital Holdings Inc. (DRCT) dropped 12.06% after revealing a settlement agreement to issue up to 50 million Class A common shares [7] - SMX (Security Matters) PLC surged 74.43% after presenting its technology at a conference in Dubai, despite maintaining a weaker price trend [7] - Walmart Inc. (WMT) rose 0.31% on Black Friday, promising discounts and exclusive offers, and maintaining a stronger price trend [7][15] - Apple Inc. (AAPL) was up 0.36% on Black Friday, offering promotions and gift cards, while maintaining a stronger price trend [15] Economic Insights - The consumer debt level in the U.S. has reached $18.6 trillion, but the ratio of household debt to disposable income is near a 25-year low at just below 90% [10][11] - The consumer landscape is described as "bifurcated," with high-wage earners spending while lower-income consumers struggle [11] - The long-term economic outlook remains optimistic, with projections for improvement driven by AI-related capital expenditures and deregulation [12]

Core Insights - Spanish retail sales increased by 3.8% in October compared to the same month last year, adjusted for the calendar and excluding inflation effects, following a decrease from a revised 4.1% in September [1] Summary by Category - **Retail Sales Performance** - The year-on-year growth rate for Spanish retail sales in October was 3.8% [1] - This growth follows a revised decline from 4.1% in September [1]