Core Insights - As of September 10, 2025, Yara International (000893) closed at 37.69 CNY, down 0.48% with a turnover rate of 2.4% and a trading volume of 194,700 lots, amounting to a transaction value of 729 million CNY [1] Financial Performance - Yara International reported a main revenue of 2.522 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, an increase of 48.54% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 855 million CNY, up 216.64% year-on-year; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 856 million CNY, up 219.48% year-on-year [3] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a single-quarter main revenue of 1.309 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 23.0%; single-quarter net profit attributable to shareholders was 470 million CNY, up 149.17% year-on-year; and single-quarter net profit excluding non-recurring items was 472 million CNY, up 152.08% year-on-year [3] Market Position - Yara International's total market capitalization is 34.827 billion CNY, ranking 4th in the fertilizer industry; net assets are 12.552 billion CNY, ranking 5th; and net profit is 855 million CNY, also ranking 5th [3] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 20.37, which is lower than the industry average of 41.88, ranking 8th; and a price-to-book ratio (P/B) of 2.78, ranking 21st [3] - The gross margin stands at 57.5%, significantly higher than the industry average of 19.49%, ranking 1st; and the net margin is 33.82%, ranking 3rd [3] Investment Sentiment - In the last 90 days, 20 institutions have rated the stock, with 15 buy ratings and 5 hold ratings; the average target price set by institutions is 40.2 CNY [4]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Urea Daily Report [2] - Report Date: September 10, 2025 [2] - Research Area: Energy and Chemicals [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and declined, closing at 1669 (-17/-1.01%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices weakened and declined, with general trading. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1620 - 1630 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1630 - 1640 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1550 - 1600 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 1490 - 1550 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - Urea Daily Output: On September 10, the daily output of the urea industry was 18.51 tons, an increase of 0.02 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 0.36 tons compared to the same period last year [4] - Urea Operating Rate: The operating rate on this day was 79.12%, a decrease of 2.30% compared to 81.42% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Market Sentiment: Market sentiment was average, with urea spot factory quotes in mainstream areas declining and trading being mediocre [5] - Regional Market Analysis: In Shandong, the mainstream factory quotes led the decline, and the factory quotes were expected to be weakly stable; in Henan, the market sentiment was low, and the factory quotes were expected to follow the decline; in the surrounding areas of the delivery zone, the factory prices were expected to decline [5] - Supply and Demand: Some devices were under maintenance, and the daily output dropped below 190,000 tons. India tendered for 200,000 tons again. The domestic demand was in a "vacuum period", and the overall demand showed a downward trend. The inventory of urea production enterprises increased by 37,700 tons to around 1.1327 million tons [5] - Market Outlook: In the short term, the domestic demand was still limited. The Indian tender had a certain support for the domestic spot market sentiment, but the domestic demand was weak, and the urea market was expected to continue its weak operation [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term bearish, do not chase the short [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9]

【冠通研究】 盘面筑底 制作日期：2025 年 9 月 10 日 【策略分析】 今日低开低走，日内冲高回落。市场情绪观望为主，上游工厂报价下滑为主。 山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1620-1660 元/吨。印 度 NFL9 月 2 日尿素进口标购最终确认 252.26 万吨成交。基本面来看，供应端日 产高位，库存高企，市场货源充沛，故该幅度的减产并未改变宽松格局。需求端， 内需依然表现低迷，复合肥工厂上期开工大幅下滑，本周预计逐渐复产，厂内成 品库存继续去化，成品肥开始向终端转移，需求前置的缘故，后续集中备肥可能 性较低，成品库存同比偏高下，对尿素的需求增量或有限。尿素厂内库存继续累 库，较上周增加 3.77 万吨，环比增加 3.44%。综合来看，下游需求端观望情绪浓 厚，尿素库存高企且继续攀升，行情偏弱运行为主，价格超跌，盘面筑底。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1681 元/吨低开低走，日内冲高回落，最终 收于 1669 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌幅-1.01%，持仓量 283349 手（+15169 手）。 主力合约前二十名主。力持仓席位来看，多头+7200 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - term: Before the export window period, conduct positive spread trading on UR01 - 05 to capture fluctuations; after the export window period, conduct reverse spread trading on UR01 - 05 at high prices [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market sees manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders, with light trading volume and weak domestic demand. Some regions are starting to use autumn fertilizers in agriculture, and industrial demand mainly comes from the rigid procurement of compound fertilizers and melamine. Industrial demand was relatively weak due to the impact of the parade on panel factories and compound fertilizer factories, but the operating rate will rise. Urea production remains at a high level, and in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand situation is still relatively loose. Coal - based urea has decent profits, and cost - side support is average. The export side has a significant impact on urea price sentiment. Attention should be paid to the Indian NFL urea import tender, and the export in August and September is expected to be good, which may lead to a decline in urea inventory. Focus on the resonance period of increased export speed and improved domestic demand [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Includes charts of Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][15] 2. Urea Production - Includes charts of urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume [17][22] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Includes charts of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [25][26][34] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Includes charts of urea small - particle FOB price in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR price in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB price in China, urea large - particle CFR price in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB price in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB price minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR price in Southeast Asia and China's FOB price, urea export profit, and disk export profit [31][33][43] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Includes charts of compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [50][51][52] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes charts of upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume [55][56][58]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Yangtze River Futures Urea Weekly Report: Supply and Demand Loose, Pay Attention to Marginal Improvement [1] - Report date: September 8, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Ying, Practice No.: F03105021, Investment Consultation No.: Z0021335 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Recently, the urea operating rate has decreased, and the daily output has dropped to 18 - 190,000 tons. Agricultural fertilizer demand is scattered, compound fertilizer finished product pick - up is poor, and the slow fertilizer preparation progress restrains the start - up. The continuous accumulation of urea enterprise inventory, the high port inventory, and the increase in the number of warehouse receipts reflect that the urea spot market has a loose supply - demand relationship. It is expected that the compound fertilizer demand will be postponed, waiting for the marginal improvement of supply and demand. Pay attention to the support at the phased price bottom, and focus on the support of 1650 - 1700 for the 01 contract [4] Group 4: Market Changes - Price: Affected by the downward adjustment of the urea spot quotation and poor sales, the support for the market expectation on the futures market weakened, and the urea price was strong first and then weak. On September 5, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1,713 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decline of 1.89%, and the lowest during the period was 1,706 yuan/ton. The daily average price of the urea spot in the Henan market was 1,699 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decline of 1.62% [4][7] - Basis: On September 5, the main basis in the Henan market was - 14 yuan/ton, and the weekly basis operating range was (- 35) - (- 3) yuan/ton [4][10] - Spread: On September 5, the 9 - 1 spread was - 51 yuan/ton, and the weekly operating range was (- 73) - (- 50) yuan/ton [4][10] Group 5: Fundamental Changes Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 79.13%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week, among which the operating load rate of gas - head enterprises was 71.15%, a decrease of 0.65 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average urea output was 182,700 tons. After the reduction or short - stop of some devices in Henan, Hebei and other places and then resumed production, and the smooth production after the commissioning of some devices in Shandong, Anhui, Xinjiang and other places, the overall operating rate decreased, and the urea supply decreased month - on - month [4][12] Cost - The trading in the anthracite market cooled down, and the price was mainly stable. As of September 4, the tax - included price of anthracite washed small lumps with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 840 - 900 yuan/ton, and the tax - included price of anthracite washed lumps with S1 - 1.5 in Yangquan, Shanxi was 760 - 800 yuan/ton, both of which were flat compared with the closing price of the previous week [4][16] Demand - Agricultural demand: National agricultural demand was scattered at this stage. The average advance receipt of major urea production enterprises was 3.4 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 94.8%. Agricultural demand moderately followed up, the compound fertilizer operation was stable, and there was a bargain - hunting purchase of urea. The downstream operation of melamine and other products was generally stable, and the production and sales were stable [4][20] - Industrial demand: The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 33.08%, a decrease of 6.14 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 841,200 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons from the previous week. During the domestic compound fertilizer sales stage, the operation of most fertilizer enterprises was relatively stable. Individual fertilizer enterprises had short - stop maintenance and would gradually resume production in the near future. It is expected that the compound fertilizer capacity operation rate may increase next week. The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 55.11%, a decrease of 1.93 percentage points from the previous week, and the weekly output was 27,160 tons [4][24][27] Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 1.094 million tons, an increase of 91,000 tons from the previous week, continuing the inventory accumulation trend. Urea port inventory was 797,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous week, and the port inventory also remained at a high level. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 8,299, totaling 165,980 tons, an increase of 1,826 from the previous week, totaling 36,520 tons [4][31] Group 6: Key Points to Follow - Compound fertilizer start - up situation, urea device reduction and maintenance situation, export policy, and coal price fluctuations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The completion of the urea granulation tower at the PetroChina Tashi Chemical Green Low-Carbon Project marks a significant milestone in the project's construction, entering the peak installation phase and nearing the completion of civil works [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The project is located in the Xinjiang Korla Shakush Chemical Industry Park and aims for near-zero carbon dioxide emissions through the use of advanced ammonia synthesis technology based on ethylene-rich tail gas [1] - The urea granulation tower, a core structure of the urea production facility, has a design height of 122.5 meters and a diameter of 24 meters, featuring a reinforced concrete cylindrical structure [1] Group 2: Construction Details - The construction of the granulation tower involves an estimated total concrete pouring volume exceeding 7,000 cubic meters and the use of over 1,600 tons of rebar [1] - The project team has successfully tackled the challenge of using C45 high-strength concrete in the construction of the granulation tower, a first in the country, along with the associated mix ratio testing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The achievement of 323 days of continuous operation by the fertilizer production unit of Fudao Company marks a significant milestone in the chemical production industry, showcasing the company's ability to overcome challenges associated with aging equipment and extreme weather conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Operational Achievement - Fudao Company's fertilizer unit has set a new record of 323 days of continuous operation, surpassing its previous record since its commissioning in 1996 [1]. - Achieving long-term operation is particularly challenging for older units, especially in regions with extreme weather conditions such as high temperatures and humidity [1]. Group 2: Technical Challenges and Solutions - Initial challenges included fluctuations in the efficiency of the gas turbine due to significant temperature variations, which were addressed through monitoring and optimization of the air intake system [1]. - The company implemented additional cooling measures during extreme weather, such as installing a spray water system and optimizing the condensate return path to maintain operational efficiency [2]. Group 3: Management Innovations - Fudao Company has restructured its management model to focus on detailed management of key equipment, utilizing intelligent monitoring systems and preventive maintenance platforms to shift from passive repairs to proactive interventions [2]. - Each potential hazard is assigned a dedicated file, responsible person, and rectification timeline, enhancing the efficiency of issue resolution [2]. Group 4: Importance to Agriculture - The stability of fertilizer production is crucial for ensuring agricultural input supply, which directly impacts food security [2]. - Fudao Company aims to continue advancing technological innovation and management optimization to further enhance operational performance and contribute to national agricultural production [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry, suggesting that leading companies with significant scale and cost advantages will benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [4][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery of the TDI production facility by Mitsui and the successful commissioning of a new ethylene plant by Jilin Petrochemical, indicating positive developments in the industry [3][4]. - It emphasizes the strong competitive position of domestic tire manufacturers and suggests that rare growth stocks in this sector are worth attention [4]. - The report notes a potential recovery in consumer electronics, recommending upstream material companies as beneficiaries of this trend [4]. - It identifies several resilient cyclical industries, such as phosphate and fluorine chemicals, which are expected to see improved market conditions due to supply constraints and rising demand [5][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.35%. The CITIC Basic Chemical Index increased by 0.15%, and the Shenwan Chemical Index decreased by 1.36% [14][17]. - The top-performing sub-industries included organic silicon (3.59%), modified plastics (2.46%), and tires (2.22%), while the worst performers were other plastic products (-4.72%) and compound fertilizers (-3.04%) [17][18]. Industry Dynamics - Mitsui's TDI plant is set to resume production after a chlorine leak incident, with expectations of stable product supply [3]. - Jilin Petrochemical's new ethylene plant has successfully started operations, increasing its total ethylene capacity to 1.9 million tons per year [3]. Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic tire companies are noted for their strong competitive edge, with recommendations to focus on companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire [4]. - **Consumer Electronics**: A gradual recovery is anticipated, with upstream material companies expected to benefit from increased demand in the panel supply chain [4]. - **Cyclical Industries**: Phosphate and fluorine chemical sectors are highlighted for their resilience, with recommendations for companies like Yuntianhua and Juhua [5][8]. - **Leading Companies**: The report suggests that leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, will benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [8].

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the market trends and strategic outlook for the urea industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Price Trends - As of mid-August 2025, the market price for urea (medium and small granules) is reported at 1766.2 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.47% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.27% [1] - The highest recorded price in the past five years occurred in mid-August 2021, reaching 2727.9 yuan per ton [1]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the market trends and investment potential in the Chinese compound fertilizer industry from 2025 to 2031 [1] Price Trends - As of mid-August 2025, the market price for compound fertilizers (potassium sulfate compound fertilizer with a nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium content of 45%) is 3180 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.51% and remaining stable compared to the previous month [1] - The highest recorded price in the last five years for the same period was in mid-August 2022, reaching 3910 yuan per ton [1] Historical Data - A statistical chart detailing the price fluctuations of compound fertilizers from 2019 to mid-August 2025 is referenced, indicating significant price movements over the years [1]