交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2026年3月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为22590吨 环比增长3 51% | 高于历史同期平均水平 | 。 ， . , | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为100529吨 环比增加8 61% ， . | 上周三元材料样 , | | | | | 本企业库存为17811吨 | 环比增加3 35% ， . 。 | | | | 1 | 基本面: 、 | 成本端来看 ， | 外购锂辉石精矿成本为154280元/吨 日环比持平 ， ， | 生产所得为 -27 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the report is on the integration of computing power and electricity, termed "算电协同," which has been included in the national infrastructure plans for 2026, indicating a shift from policy planning to industrial practice [2][3][14] - The report highlights that the electricity sector has shown excess returns, with the CITIC Power and Utilities Index rising 7.46% since February 13, 2026, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 8.71 percentage points [21][14] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the electricity industry driven by green electricity direct supply and data centers, with specific segments like power supply services, power equipment, and green electricity operations expected to benefit [3][21][24] Group 2 - OpenAI has released its flagship model GPT-5.4, which marks a significant evolution towards a "native digital employee" paradigm, capable of automating complex desktop workflows and directly controlling system operations [2][28][36] - The model introduces a new "Thinking" mode that allows for real-time human intervention and logical correction, significantly reducing the hallucination rate by 33% [28][32] - The report notes that the AI industry is transitioning from a dialogue-based generator to fully autonomous agents, indicating a shift in commercial value capture from broad consumer platforms to deep integration within enterprise workflows [36][28] Group 3 - The report suggests investment opportunities in four main lines due to the "算电协同" policy: power supply service providers, power equipment manufacturers, green electricity operators, and regulatory power companies [24][25][27] - The demand for high-reliability power supply equipment and green electricity grid integration devices is expected to increase as data centers and green electricity projects scale up [25][26] - The report indicates that the integration of computing power and electricity will enhance the economic and strategic value of regulatory power sources, as they will be crucial in maintaining grid stability amid fluctuating demands [27][24] Group 4 - The report identifies five sectors with marginal improvements to focus on in March: chemicals, lithium mining, domestic computing power, semiconductor equipment, and overseas computing power [38][40] - It highlights that the chemical sector is experiencing price support due to supply constraints and rising demand, particularly in refrigerants and titanium dioxide [41][40] - The lithium mining sector is also noted for its price increases, with expectations of further upward movement due to supply disruptions and strong demand [41][40] Group 5 - The global stock market performance shows that energy sectors have performed well, while materials and consumer sectors have shown weaker results [42][43] - The report indicates that the energy sector has been a strong performer across various markets, including the US, Europe, and China, while other sectors like utilities and consumer goods have struggled [42][43] - The report also mentions significant movements in large-cap stocks, particularly in the technology and energy sectors, reflecting broader market trends [48]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium market is experiencing a significant mismatch between the market's expectation of "supply-demand loosening/weak balance" and the actual industry dynamics of "supply rigid contraction, continuously exceeding demand, and new technologies reshaping lithium demand ceilings" [4]. Group 1: 2025 Supply and Demand Overview - In 2025, the supply and demand are expected to be balanced, with inventory remaining around 100,000 tons throughout the year [5]. - The supply in 2025 is estimated to be approximately 163-168 million tons, matching the demand of about 163 million tons, indicating a balanced state [5]. - There are concerns about the supply from Nigeria, where illegal mining was prevalent but is expected to decrease due to regulatory actions [5]. Group 2: 2026 Supply Increment Sources - Domestic lithium extraction from salt lakes is projected to contribute around 7.5-7.8 million tons, with adjustments for overproduction [6]. - Mica mining is expected to see a reduction of 4.3 million tons due to regulatory delays in approvals [6]. - The supply from spodumene is anticipated to be lower than expected, with actual increments from major mines like Greenbushes likely to be around 3-3.5 million tons instead of the projected 5.5 million tons [11]. Group 3: Demand Projections for 2026 - The global lithium battery shipment is expected to reach 3,242 GWh in 2026, leading to a demand for approximately 220 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent [19]. - The demand forecast indicates a significant gap between supply and demand, with supply expected to be around 202 million tons, resulting in a shortfall [19]. Group 4: Impact of New Technologies - New technologies, such as lithium supplements, are expected to increase lithium usage significantly, with estimates suggesting that 1 GWh of lithium batteries could require an additional 55-75 tons of lithium carbonate [20][22]. - The transition to solid-state batteries could further increase lithium demand by 2-3 times due to the use of lithium metal as an anode material [23]. Group 5: Zimbabwe Export Ban Implications - The ban on lithium exports from Zimbabwe is likely to exacerbate supply-demand mismatches in the short term, but it may not significantly impact overall profits as companies can still process and sell lithium concentrate later [25][26]. - The cost of lithium concentrate production is around $500 per ton, while the market price for lithium spodumene is approximately $2,505 per ton, indicating substantial profit margins [25]. Group 6: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The lithium market is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance that is not fully recognized by the market, with actual supply being significantly lower than institutional expectations [16]. - The industry is undergoing a fundamental shift from "disorderly expansion" to "compliance and rigid contraction," with demand driven by multiple sectors including passenger vehicles, energy storage, and heavy trucks [30]. - The market's perception of lithium demand is changing due to technological advancements, which are expected to increase lithium consumption rather than decrease it [30].

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On March 6, 2026, the main contract of lithium carbonate slightly increased to 156,160 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan or 0.19% from the previous trading day, while the basis weakened to 640 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 31.91% from the previous day [1][34][35]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: On March 6, 2026, the open interest expanded to 333,903 lots, an increase of 1,529 lots or 0.46% from the previous day, and the trading volume shrank to 228,224 lots, a decrease of 72,281 lots or 24.05% from the previous day [1][36][37]. *** Industry Chain Supply, Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: On March 6, 2026, the price of spodumene concentrate rose slightly to 16,600 yuan/ton, while the price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 9,000 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased to 73.46%, down 12.26 percentage points from the previous week. Upstream lithium salt producers ended maintenance but were reluctant to sell and eager to hold up prices, with weak willingness to sell spot orders. Overseas mines held up prices, resulting in light overall trading [2][28][38]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials slightly declined, with ternary materials dropping to 182,050 yuan/ton and lithium iron phosphate dropping to 54,810 yuan/ton on March 6, 2026. Although the sales volume of new energy vehicles from February 1 - 8 increased year - on - year, the sales volume in the first quarter fell short of expectations, affecting the procurement rhythm of downstream battery cell manufacturers. Material manufacturers showed strong procurement willingness and increased production schedules, and were eager to replenish stocks when prices corrected, but overall, they were cautious and mainly adopted a wait - and - see approach, with light actual trading [2][31][39]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory of lithium carbonate slightly decreased to 99,373 physical tons on March 6, 2026, a decrease of 720 tons or 0.72% from the previous week, indicating slow inventory depletion. Warehouse receipt data were not directly provided, but the inventory decrease might reflect a reduction in warehouse receipt pressure [2][31][40]. *** Price Trend Judgment It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will maintain a low - level oscillatory pattern in the next one to two weeks. The supply - side capacity utilization rate is gradually recovering despite the decline, and the reluctance of upstream producers to sell supports prices. On the demand side, although new energy vehicle sales are growing, they fall short of expectations, and downstream procurement is cautious with limited restocking demand. The inventory is slightly decreasing but the depletion speed is slow. The overall market shows a supply - demand game with a lack of a clear directional driver [3][31][41]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short term, lithium carbonate prices may fluctuate under hedging pressure due to the increasing geopolitical tension between the US and Iran, which has led to a rise in capital hedging sentiment, and the need for capital to take profits after the previous large increase in lithium carbonate prices. However, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, and the continuous restocking by downstream industries supports the price. Overall, the fundamentals are supportive [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 155,250 yuan, down 750 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 151,750 yuan, down 750 yuan [1]. - For lithium carbonate futures contracts: - Carbonate 2603 closed at 154,020 yuan, down 0.73%. - Carbonate 2604 closed at 155,860 yuan, up 0.03%. - Carbonate 2605 closed at 156,160 yuan, up 0.42%. - Carbonate 2606 closed at 156,100 yuan, down 0.29%. - Carbonate 2607 closed at 156,420 yuan, up 0.67% [1]. Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li20: 5.5% - 6%) average price is 2,155 yuan, with no change [1]. - Lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) price is 3,455 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) price is 5,190 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) price is 12,825 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) price is 14,000 yuan [2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 54,810 yuan, down 180 yuan. - The average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 209,500 yuan, down 450 yuan. - The average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 182,050 yuan, down 350 yuan. - The average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 183,750 yuan, down 300 yuan [2]. Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan. - The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 910 yuan, down 1,050 yuan. - The price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 300 yuan, with no change. - The price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 240 yuan, up 180 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 99,373 tons, down 720 tons. - The smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 17,476 tons, down 906 tons. - The downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,757 tons, up 3,736 tons. - The other inventory (weekly, tons) is 38,140 tons, down 3,550 tons. - The registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 36,330 tons, down 510 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 154,280 yuan, and the profit is - 1,102 yuan. - The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 154,659 yuan, and the profit is - 4,984 yuan [3]. Industry Situation - In January 2026, the new - energy vehicle market operated steadily, with production and sales of 1.041 million and 945,000 vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% and 1.5% respectively. - In January, new - energy vehicle exports maintained high - speed growth, with 302,000 vehicles exported, a year - on - year increase of 100% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "volatile" rating for lithium carbonate [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors. In the short - term, due to good production schedules of cathodes and cells, there is still support for the direct demand of lithium carbonate. Considering the unresolved situation in Zimbabwe, the overall outlook is bullish. In the long - term, the situation in the Middle East provides support for the narrative of new energy replacing traditional energy. The strategy is to look for opportunities to go long on dips [3][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chile's Exports Exceed Expectations Again, and Demand Still Has Support - This week (3/2 - 3/6), lithium salt prices dropped sharply and then fluctuated. The closing price of LC2605 decreased by 11.3% month - on - month to 156,200 yuan/ton. The average spot prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 9.7% and 9.9% month - on - month to 155,300 yuan/ton and 151,800 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide fluctuated accordingly [12] - On the supply side: 1) Chile's exports exceeded expectations again. In February 2026, Chile exported 22,400 tons of lithium salts to China, a month - on - month increase of 32% and a year - on - year increase of 86%. It shipped 12,100 tons of lithium sulfate to China (equivalent to 6,100 tons of LCE), a month - on - month decrease of 57% and a year - on - year increase of 17%. 2) The disturbance of mining licenses in Jiangxi continued. There were rumors that a mine in Yichun would stop production for license renewal. The company later said it planned to complete the annual mining plan before the suspension to support subsequent production, but concerns about Jiangxi's mining licenses still remained. 3) The progress in Zimbabwe was below expectations. On March 3, the Zimbabwean cabinet officially approved the export ban, and the attitude after the talks with Chinese - funded enterprises was tougher than expected. The specific time for resuming exports was still unclear, and it was expected to affect the monthly supply by 12,000 tons of LCE [1][14] - On the demand side: In March, the production schedules generally met the previous high - growth expectations. In April, some institutions surveyed the downstream production schedules, expecting a 5% month - on - month increase in lithium iron phosphate production and a 6% month - on - month decrease in ternary production, which might drive the monthly battery - related demand for lithium carbonate to exceed 130,000 tons. In the short - term, demand still had support. In the medium - term, the market generally recognized the high growth of energy storage, but was skeptical about power batteries. In the long - term, if the war between the US and Iran continued and oil prices soared, it might lead to the possibility of power and energy storage demand exceeding expectations again [2][15] - This week, SMM's inventory decreased by 720 tons, and Fubao's inventory decreased by 164 tons. After updating import and export data, it might be difficult to reduce domestic lithium carbonate inventory in March. The expectation of inventory reduction in April was still maintained. The spot and futures trading was okay, with most transactions at around 150,000 yuan. The basis of traders' overall quotes was relatively strong [2][15] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - Wanhua Chemical's environmental assessment for 1.05 million tons of lithium iron phosphate was approved. The total investment exceeded 12 billion yuan, and its radical capacity expansion might impact the spot demand structure of lithium carbonate and force lithium salt manufacturers to accelerate the transformation to the long - term contract model [17] - Jiangxi Yiyuan New Energy's lithium iron phosphate project was put into production. The project had a total investment of 2.5 billion yuan, planning an annual production of 30,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, 30,000 tons of iron phosphate precursor, and 40,000 tons of battery recycling comprehensive utilization products [17] - The first - phase project of Gansu Jinlin Lithium Battery, with an annual production of 100,000 tons of phosphate - based lithium - ion battery cathode materials, was put into production. The project had a total investment of 3.135 billion yuan and was constructed in two phases [18] 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: The Price Trends of Ore and Salt Are Consistent - Relevant data include the spot average price of lithium concentrate, the monthly inventory of lithium ore samples, the closing price of the GFEX lithium carbonate main contract, and the term structure of GFEX lithium carbonate [19][21][23] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: Chile's Exports Exceed Expectations Again - Related data involve domestic weekly production of lithium carbonate, SMM weekly inventory of lithium carbonate, domestic spot average price of lithium carbonate and the price difference between electric and industrial grades, the basis of lithium carbonate, domestic spot average price of lithium hydroxide, the price difference between domestic and overseas lithium hydroxide, the price difference between domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate, and the theoretical production profit of lithium salt plants. Also included are Chile's monthly export volume of lithium carbonate to China, China's lithium carbonate import volume, South America's lithium carbonate export volume to China, Chile's shipping volume of lithium sulfate to China, and Chile's average export price of lithium carbonate to various countries [28][33][43] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediate Products: Demand in March Still Has Support - Relevant data cover the monthly production of SMM ternary materials, the monthly production of SMM lithium iron phosphate, the price trend of lithium iron phosphate, the average price of lithium iron phosphate cells (power type), the price trend of ternary materials, the price trend of cobalt acid lithium, and the average price of cobalt acid lithium cells (consumer type) [49][51][54] 3.3.4 Terminal: Pay Attention to the Subsequent Power Sales Situation - Related data include China's power battery installation volume and year - on - year growth rate, China's power battery installation proportion in the current month, China's new energy vehicle production and sales year - on - year growth rate, and China's new energy vehicle penetration rate [64][65][67]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's long position in Ganfeng Lithium's H-shares has decreased from 6.70% to 5.90% [1] Company Summary - The reduction in Morgan Stanley's holdings indicates a shift in investment strategy or market sentiment towards Ganfeng Lithium [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content available. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the lithium carbonate futures price showed a "V-shaped" reversal, driven by supply disruptions, inventory changes, and the explosion of energy storage demand. In 2026, demand is the key factor affecting prices. Global electric vehicle penetration is increasing, and the demand for power batteries is expected to grow by about 15%-20%. The energy storage market will maintain high-speed growth. If demand growth exceeds 30% or supply is unexpectedly restricted, prices may temporarily break through 250,000 yuan/ton, but high prices will stimulate rapid capacity release, and prices will be difficult to maintain at high levels. After the Spring Festival in March-April, demand will pick up, and prices may rise rapidly. In Q2 2026, Australian mines will resume production, and prices may decline. In the long term, 2026 will be a price inflection point, and prices will rise from the low level but will not reach historical highs. By the end of 2026, overseas new capacity will be gradually released, supply and demand will tend to balance, and prices may stabilize in the range of 150,000-200,000 yuan/ton [2][128][145]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Industrial Chain Analysis - **Carbonate Lithium Processing Industry Chain**: Carbonate lithium is an important lithium product used mainly for lithium battery materials, including power batteries for new energy vehicles, consumer electronics batteries, and energy storage batteries. It is divided into industrial-grade and battery-grade carbonate lithium, with different quality requirements for different lithium battery cathode materials. The upstream of the industry chain involves the extraction of lithium resources, the midstream is the reprocessing of primary carbonate lithium products, and the downstream is mainly the production of lithium battery cathode materials [11]. - **Factors Affecting Carbonate Lithium Prices**: Supply factors include raw material supply, capacity utilization, new capacity release, import volume, and inventory. Demand factors are policy-driven and market-driven. Cost factors provide a bottom support for prices, with different lithium resource types having different extraction costs [16][19][20]. Part 2: Introduction to Carbonate Lithium Futures and Options Contracts - **Carbonate Lithium Futures Contracts and Delivery System**: The contract标的物 is carbonate lithium, with a trading unit of 1 ton/hand, a minimum price change of 20 yuan/ton, and a daily price limit of ±4%. The delivery month is from January to December, and the delivery method is physical delivery. The benchmark delivery product and alternative delivery product have specific quality requirements, and the delivery area and premium/discount settings are also specified [21][24][26]. - **Carbonate Lithium Options Contracts and Delivery System**: The contract标的物 is the carbonate lithium futures contract, with call and put options. The trading unit is 1 hand (1 ton) of the carbonate lithium futures contract, and the minimum price change is 10 yuan/ton. The exercise price range and interval are set according to different price levels, and the exercise method is American [31]. Part 3: Market Review - **Historical Market Review**: Carbonate lithium prices have experienced two significant increases. The first was from 2015-2018, driven by policy support for the new energy industry. The second was from 2021-2022, due to the explosion of downstream consumer vehicle demand. After that, prices declined due to factors such as policy subsidy reduction and oversupply [40][41]. - **2025 Market Review**: In 2025, the lithium carbonate futures price showed a "V-shaped" reversal. In the first quarter, prices declined; in the second quarter, they reached the annual low; in the third quarter, they rebounded due to supply disruptions and energy storage demand; in the fourth quarter, the increase accelerated [48]. - **Carbonate Lithium Futures Trading and Positioning**: In 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbonate lithium futures was 150.3 million hands, the cumulative trading value was 12.2325 trillion yuan, and the average monthly trading volume was 12.53 million hands. The average monthly trading value was 101.94 billion yuan, and the average monthly end-of-month position was 640,000 hands [51]. Part 4: Analysis of the Supply Pattern of the Carbonate Lithium Industry - **Production and Supply Analysis**: Global lithium resources and reserves have increased. In 2025, global carbonate lithium production increased by 18% to 1.55 million tons. In China, domestic carbonate lithium production increased by 48.63% to 1.0044 million tons. The supply structure changed, with an increase in the proportion of spodumene lithium extraction and a decrease in the proportion of salt lake lithium extraction [53][54][57]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: In 2025, China imported 4.9038 million tons of lithium concentrate, a decrease of 13.93% compared to 2024. The import structure changed, with an increase in the proportion of Australian lithium ore and a decrease in the proportion of Zimbabwean lithium ore. China imported 196,900 tons of carbonate lithium, a decrease of 16.19% compared to 2024. The export volume of carbonate lithium was 3,618 tons, a decrease of 5.50% compared to the previous year [71][78][87]. Part 5: Analysis of the Consumption Pattern of the Carbonate Lithium Industry - **New Energy Vehicle Market**: In 2025, the production of ternary cathode materials and lithium iron phosphate increased. Lithium iron phosphate became the mainstream cathode material, with a significant increase in market share. The installation volume of power batteries increased, and the new energy vehicle market continued to grow. However, subsidy policies changed, which may affect market demand in 2026 [88][97][99]. - **Energy Storage Market**: In 2025, the Chinese energy storage market continued to grow rapidly, driven by policies and the market. The new installed capacity of new energy storage in the first three quarters increased by 178% year-on-year. The industry is transitioning from a policy-driven to a market-driven stage, and the capacity price mechanism is being improved [106]. Part 6: Summary and Analysis of the Supply and Demand Situation of the Carbonate Lithium Industry - In 2025, the supply-demand gap of carbonate lithium in China showed a narrowing trend. In the first half of the year, the gap increased, and inventory accumulated; in the second half of the year, demand increased, and inventory decreased. Globally, the lithium market has been in a state of oversupply since 2018, but in 2025, it turned to a tight balance. It is expected that in 2026, the market will remain in a state of oversupply, but the gap will narrow [114][121][123]. Part 7: Analysis and Outlook of Arbitrage Opportunities - In the fourth quarter of 2025, as the lithium battery industry became more prosperous and demand expectations were revised upwards, the price of carbonate lithium continued to rise. In 2026, demand is the key factor affecting prices. It is recommended to buy on dips. In March-April after the Spring Festival, prices may rise rapidly, and profits can be taken if long positions were established at low prices. In Q2 2026, prices may decline, and opportunities to buy at low levels can be considered [126][128]. Part 8: Case Study of Futures Hedging by Carbonate Lithium Enterprises - A battery enterprise locked in the purchase price of carbonate lithium through futures hedging. In July 2025, the enterprise bought 1,200 hands of carbonate lithium futures contracts at an average price of 66,000 yuan/ton. In August, when the average selling price of carbonate lithium was 82,000 yuan/ton, the enterprise closed the position at an average price of 80,000 yuan/ton. Although there was a loss in the spot market, the profit in the futures market reduced the overall loss [129][130][132]. Part 9: Technical Analysis and Outlook of Futures Prices - **Price Seasonality Analysis**: In recent years, the price of carbonate lithium has fluctuated greatly. March-April is a high-volatility month, and October has the best performance. July-August often sees price declines due to increased production from salt lakes [133]. - **Technical Analysis**: In 2025, the price of carbonate lithium rebounded from the bottom of 60,000 yuan/ton. In 2026, the upward resistance level is 190,000 yuan/ton, and the downward support level is 150,000 yuan/ton. Prices may break through the resistance level due to seasonal or event-driven supply-demand mismatches [140]. Part 10: Industry Enterprise Research and Outlook for 2026 - According to UBS analysts, the risk balance of lithium prices is tilting upwards. Demand in the energy storage field has significant growth potential, and although the electric vehicle market was weak at the beginning of the year, it is expected to recover. The supply forecast is relatively conservative. The reasonable price range is 120,000-180,000 yuan/ton, and prices may exceed 200,000 yuan/ton if market speculation continues [142][144]. Part 11: Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - The conclusions and operational suggestions are consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the importance of demand in 2026 and providing investment strategies based on price trends [145][147]. Part 12: Statistics of Related Stock Prices and Price Changes - The report provides the latest prices and price changes of some lithium industry-related stocks as of December 26, 2025 [150].

Group 1: Market Analysis - On March 5, 2026, the main contract of lithium carbonate 2605 opened at 156,700 yuan/ton and closed at 155,860 yuan/ton, with a 3.00% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 300,505 lots, and the open interest was 332,374 lots, down from 339,011 lots the previous day. The basis was -520 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 36,840 lots, a decrease of 315 lots from the previous day [1]. - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 152,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan/ton from the previous day. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 149,000 - 156,000 yuan/ton, also up 2,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,200 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars/ton [1]. - The spot inventory of lithium carbonate was 99,373 tons, a decrease of 720 tons from the previous period. Among them, smelter inventory was 17,476 tons, a decrease of 906 tons; downstream inventory was 43,757 tons, an increase of 3,736 tons; other inventory was 38,140 tons, a decrease of 3,550 tons. The overall inventory was still in a destocking pattern [1]. Group 2: Core View - The lithium carbonate market is mainly affected by news. Under the influence of Zimbabwe's export policy and negative sentiment in the Middle - East energy storage market, the market is volatile. The hype in the lithium carbonate market is decreasing, and it will gradually return to the fundamental logic [2]. - On the supply side, 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate from Chile is expected to arrive in March. On the demand side, in February 2026, some leading new - energy vehicle manufacturers had a year - on - year sales decline of up to 30%. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has raised concerns about the demand for lithium - ion energy storage in the region, with a risk of subsequent reduction. However, the production of lithium carbonate materials and battery cells is still growing rapidly, and the industry is in a destocking state, which supports the price [2]. Group 3: Strategy - The production of lithium carbonate materials and battery cells on the demand side is still growing rapidly, leading to continuous inventory destocking. However, the demand for terminal new - energy vehicles and energy storage remains to be verified. The current market is greatly affected by market sentiment, and short - term interval operations are recommended. For single - side trading, short - term waiting and watching is recommended [3]. - There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

Group 1 - JPMorgan increased its stake in Ganfeng Lithium (01772) by 2.814516 million shares at a price of HKD 69.0358 per share, totaling approximately HKD 194 million [3][4] - After the increase, JPMorgan's total shareholding in Ganfeng Lithium reached approximately 31.4959 million shares, representing a stake of 6.51% [3][4]