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化学原料及化学制品制造业

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甲醇周报-20251209

Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 02:08

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report Under the interweaving of long and short factors, the methanol market is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation next week. Inland methanol factories have no inventory pressure, but the inland methanol operation is at a high - level. With the planned restart of a large - scale methanol project in Inner Mongolia and some upstream factories showing a strong willingness to ship, there is no gap in the supply side. In terms of demand, traditional downstream industries are gradually entering the off - season, but there are significant new demand highlights: a new 450,000 - ton/year olefin plant of Lianhong is planned to be put into operation on December 10. Meanwhile, frequent rain and snow in northern regions in winter may affect transportation efficiency. Downstream enterprises in sales areas keep high raw material inventories to avoid raw material supply risks, and there is still restocking demand, which forms an implicit support for prices. In the port area, although the port inventory continues to be small but still at a high level, downstream demand is average, and the MTO plant in Zhejiang is about to shut down. After the previous positive factors are digested, the current port fundamentals have no obvious positive guidance for spot and futures. It is expected that the port methanol market will fluctuate and consolidate next week, and there is a possibility of a slight decline. Pay attention to the recent port shipping schedules and corresponding inventory changes [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review The methanol market is in a situation of long - short interweaving. Inland supply and demand have their own characteristics, and the port market lacks obvious positive factors. The overall market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate next week, with a possible slight decline in the port market [5]. 2. Fundamental Data - **Domestic Methanol Spot Price**: From November 28 to December 5, prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.95% from 2,105 yuan/ton to 2,085 yuan/ton, while the price in Hebei increased by 2.11% from 2,130 yuan/ton to 2,175 yuan/ton [6]. - **Methanol Basis**: The spot price decreased by 0.95% from 2,105 yuan/ton to 2,085 yuan/ton, and the futures price decreased by 2.72% from 2,135 yuan/ton to 2,077 yuan/ton. The basis changed from - 30 yuan/ton to 8 yuan/ton [8]. - **Methanol Production Profits by Process**: Coal - to - methanol profit increased from - 18 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 88 yuan/ton. Natural gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 40 yuan/ton. Coke - oven gas - to - methanol profit increased from 186 yuan/ton to 281 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 318 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load**: The national methanol load decreased from 78.71% to 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81%. The load in the northwest decreased from 85.09% to 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% [13]. - **External Methanol Prices and Spreads**: CFR China price decreased by 2.43% from 247 US dollars/ton to 241 US dollars/ton, while CFR Southeast Asia price remained unchanged at 317.5 US dollars/ton. The spread between them decreased from - 70.5 US dollars/ton to - 76.5 US dollars/ton [16]. - **Methanol Import Spread**: The spot price decreased by 0.95% from 2,105 yuan/ton to 2,085 yuan/ton, and the import cost decreased by 2.37% from 2,172 yuan/ton to 2,120 yuan/ton. The import spread increased from - 67 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [19]. - **Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from November 28 to December 5 [25]. - **Formaldehyde Production Profit and Load**: The profit decreased from - 138 yuan/ton to - 158 yuan/ton, and the load increased slightly from 30.97% to 30.98% [26]. - **Dimethyl Ether Production Profit and Load**: The profit decreased from 525 yuan/ton to 462 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 8.34% to 9.79% [28]. - **Acetic Acid Production Profit and Load**: The profit increased from 227 yuan/ton to 253 yuan/ton, and the load decreased from 73.61% to 72.32% [33]. - **MTO Production Profit and Load**: The profit increased from - 822 yuan/ton to - 672 yuan/ton. The load in East China decreased from 74.55% to 72.14%, and in South China decreased from 42.2% to 39.71% [37][38]. - **Methanol Port Inventory**: The inventory in East China decreased from 74.55 to 72.14, and in South China decreased from 42.2 to 39.71 [38]. - **Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: The warehouse receipts increased by 99.37% from 3,800 to 7,576, and the effective forecasts remained at 0 after a brief increase to 900 [42]. 3.检修状况 - **Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance**: Many domestic methanol enterprises are in maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance time and loss vary by enterprise [44]. - **Foreign Methanol Device Operation**: Iranian, Saudi, Malaysian, and other foreign methanol devices have different operating conditions, such as some in the process of restarting and some operating normally [45]. - **Olefin Device Operation**: Domestic olefin devices in different regions also have different operating conditions, such as some running stably, some being shut down, and some having planned maintenance or new production plans [46].