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全球宏观资产市场-晴雨气候表
对冲研投· 2025-09-15 08:37
Core Insights - The article presents a comprehensive market monitoring dashboard covering multiple asset classes, including stocks, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, providing traders with indicators for trend, reversal, volatility, and overbought/oversold conditions [1]. Asset Classification - The assets are categorized into four main classes: Equity, FX, Commodities, and Crypto, each with specific indicators for analysis [2]. Key Assets and Recent Changes - Key assets to focus on include: - **Equity**: SP500_US and Nasdaq100_US are highlighted for their significant volatility and potential for trend continuation or reversal [1]. - **China Stocks**: CSI300_China and SSE_China are noted for their low valuations and potential rebound, albeit with high volatility [1]. - **Forex**: USDJPY and USDCNY are emphasized due to significant central bank policy differences, while EURUSD and GBPUSD are suitable for macro hedging [1]. - **Commodities**: Gold and CrudeWTI are driven by safe-haven demand and inflation expectations, while CopperHG and Soybean are sensitive to economic cycles and Chinese demand [1]. - **Cryptocurrency**: BTCUSD and ETHUSD are recognized for their high volatility and suitability for swing trading [1]. Potential Trading Opportunities - Trading opportunities are identified based on specific numerical indicators, such as extreme Sigma values indicating potential rebounds or trend continuations [3]. Suggested Operational Framework - Strategies include: - **Rebound Opportunities**: Identifying assets with low Sigma values and reversal signals for potential rebounds [4]. - **Trend Continuation**: Following assets where EMA20 is above EMA100, indicating an upward trend [4]. - **Volatility Strategies**: Utilizing high VolRank and rising ATR% for options strategies or breakout trades [4]. Risk Considerations - Risks include: - **Overbought Risks**: High Sigma values indicating potential short-term overheating [4]. - **Trend Reversal Risks**: Signals indicating potential reversals, especially with high deviation [4]. - **Liquidity/Volatility Risks**: Extreme market conditions requiring position control [4]. Multi-Asset Comparison and Risk Management - Emphasis on comparing assets within the same category and using multiple indicators for comprehensive analysis [4]. - Risk management is prioritized, with all trades requiring stop-loss measures based on volatility and drawdown metrics [4]. - The technical analysis should be complemented with macroeconomic factors such as central bank policies and geopolitical events [4].
放弃激进执法,美国SEC主席称:将在“破门而入”前通知企业技术违规行为
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-15 06:58
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the SEC under new chairman Paul Atkins is shifting towards a more business-friendly regulatory approach, moving away from the aggressive enforcement agenda of his predecessor Gary Gensler [1][2] - Atkins emphasizes the importance of protecting investors while also allowing companies the opportunity to correct technical violations before enforcement actions are taken [1][2] - The SEC has already begun to withdraw several cases and investigations against cryptocurrency platforms since January, indicating a broader movement to relax regulations established during the Biden administration [1] Group 2 - Atkins criticizes the previous administration's approach of imposing massive fines on banks and brokerages for record-keeping violations, advocating instead for a warning mechanism that allows firms time to rectify issues [3] - He suggests that the regulatory process should be more predictable and based on established precedents, contrasting it with the previous "shoot first, ask questions later" mentality [2][3] - Atkins aims to standardize record-keeping rules across different agencies to improve regulatory clarity [3] Group 3 - Unlike Gensler, who viewed most tokens as securities and took a hardline stance against the cryptocurrency industry, Atkins is working towards making the U.S. a hub for cryptocurrency by allowing the trading of tokenized versions of stocks and bonds [4] - He cites the collapse of FTX as an example of how a well-regulated environment can protect investors and prevent business from moving overseas [4] - Atkins warns that companies offering tokenized U.S. stock trading must be cautious, as securities laws will apply if they are trading securities [5]
突然全线跳水!近13万人爆仓
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-15 04:53
Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin and Ethereum are experiencing a downturn, with nearly 130,000 liquidations occurring in the past 24 hours [2] - The total liquidation amount in the last 24 hours reached $297 million, with significant liquidations occurring on platforms like Binance [3] - The Winklevoss twins, founders of the cryptocurrency company "Gemini," predict that Bitcoin's price will reach $1 million within the next decade [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Developments - Recent developments regarding the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook may impact the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting [4] - The U.S. Department of Justice has requested a ruling by September 15 to determine Cook's ability to attend and vote at the Federal Reserve meeting [4] - Media reports suggest that Cook's property, labeled as a "vacation home," may counter allegations of mortgage fraud that led to her dismissal [4] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The market anticipates a minimum 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [5] - Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett indicates that 2025 will be a significant turning point for global market investment themes, advocating for a long position in non-U.S. assets [5] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist forecasts a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, predicting only 1.25% growth in 2026, significantly lower than 2024's expected 2.8% [5]
加密货币行业反对英国央行拟议的稳定币持有上限计划
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-15 04:27
Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency industry is urging the Bank of England to abandon its proposal to limit the amount of stablecoins individuals can hold, which would impose stricter regulations than those in the US or EU [1] Group 1: Regulatory Concerns - The Bank of England plans to implement a holding limit for all systemic stablecoins, with individual limits set between £10,000 and £20,000, and corporate limits at £10 million [1] - This proposal reflects the Bank of England's concerns that such digital currencies could undermine financial stability by siphoning deposits from the banking system [1] Group 2: Industry Response - The proposal has faced criticism from the cryptocurrency and payments industry, which argues that it would place the UK at a competitive disadvantage compared to other countries and regions [1] - Industry representatives highlight the challenges of implementing such regulations, citing high costs and difficulties in enforcement [1]
全线跳水!近13万人爆仓
中国基金报· 2025-09-14 15:42
Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced a sudden drop, with nearly 130,000 individuals liquidated in the past 24 hours, totaling approximately $297 million in liquidations [4][5] - The Winklevoss twins, founders of the cryptocurrency company "Gemini," predict that Bitcoin's upward trend will not stop soon, forecasting it could reach $1 million within the next decade [5] Federal Reserve Developments - Recent developments regarding the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook may impact the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting [6] - The U.S. Department of Justice has requested a ruling by September 15 to determine Cook's ability to attend and vote at the meeting [6] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will likely lower interest rates by at least 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting [7] Economic Outlook - Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett indicates that 2025 will be a significant turning point for global market investment themes, driven by a weaker dollar and the end of deflation in Europe and Japan [7][8] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist Seth Carpenter notes that the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing growth, with tariffs impacting economic performance, predicting a growth rate of only 1.25% in 2026 [8]
全线跳水!近13万人爆仓
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-14 14:47
Group 1 - Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a sudden drop after initially showing gains, with nearly 130,000 liquidations occurring in the past 24 hours [1][3] - The total liquidation amount in the last 24 hours reached $297 million, with significant amounts liquidated in various time frames, including $12.7 million in 12 hours and $23.3 million in 1 hour [4] - The Winklevoss twins, founders of the cryptocurrency company "Gemini," predict that Bitcoin's upward trend will not stop soon, forecasting it could reach $1 million in the next decade [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy meeting is a focal point for the market, with expectations of at least a 25 basis point rate cut [6] - Recent developments regarding the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook may impact the upcoming meeting, as the Justice Department seeks to overturn a court ruling that temporarily blocked her dismissal [5] - Analysts suggest that the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing growth, influenced by tariff policies, with projections indicating a potential growth rate of only 1.25% in 2026 [7]
比特币,直线跳水!美联储,大消息!
Group 1 - Bitcoin and Ethereum cryptocurrencies are experiencing a positive trend, with nearly 130,000 liquidations occurring in the past 24 hours [2][3] - The total liquidation amount in the last 24 hours reached $297 million, with significant amounts liquidated in various time frames, including $12.7 million in the last hour and $127 million in the last 12 hours [3] Group 2 - The Winklevoss brothers, founders of the cryptocurrency company "Gemini," predict that Bitcoin's upward momentum will not cease soon, forecasting it could reach $1 million within the next decade [4] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate meeting is a focal point for the market, with expectations of at least a 25 basis point rate cut [6] - Recent developments regarding the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook may impact the upcoming monetary policy meeting, with a court ruling potentially affecting her ability to participate [5] Group 4 - Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett indicates that 2025 will be a significant turning point for global market investment themes, advocating for a long position in non-USD assets due to a weakening dollar and the end of deflation in Europe and Japan [7] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist Seth Carpenter highlights a noticeable slowdown in U.S. economic growth, attributing it partly to tariff policies, with projections of weak growth in Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year [7]
人均利润碾压英伟达40倍,币圈最神秘的“印钞机”,是如何运转的?
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-14 03:34
它就是币圈低调到几乎隐身的巨头——Tether 在这期视频里,我们将彻底拆解:Tether是如何用一个极简的金融模型,把美元代币化成USDT,成为 全球最常用的稳定币?为什么它能一年狂赚超过百亿美元,却几乎没有人能替代。以及,这样一台"印 钞机",背后究竟藏着哪些足以引爆整个市场的风险? 你绝对想不到,全世界员工人均最赚钱的公司,居然不是苹果、微软、英伟达,而是一家只有不到200 名员工的神秘公司,人均利润却高达8600万美金,比英伟达高出整整40倍! ...
Markets have been acting ‘super weird’ lately. Just look at gold prices vs. the dollar and bonds
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-13 21:30
Core Insights - Financial markets have exhibited unusual behavior following the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, which hinted at potential rate cuts [1] - Gold has emerged as a significant safe haven asset, experiencing a price increase of nearly 10% and closing at $3,680.70 per ounce [2] - The bond market's reaction has been unexpected, with the 30-year Treasury yield not falling immediately after Powell's speech, only declining after a weak jobs report [3] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 and commodity prices did not respond as anticipated to the prospect of rate cuts, contrasting with the expected market behavior [2] - The dollar index has remained stable, returning to pre-speech levels, which is considered counterintuitive given the expectations for Fed easing [3] - Bitcoin's volatility has led to a sell-off post-Jackson Hole, but it has also returned to its starting point, diverging from its previous behavior as a risk asset [4] Global Economic Factors - Concerns over a potential debt crisis in France and the U.K. have contributed to rising global bond yields, with political gridlock in France affecting fiscal discipline [4] - Fitch's downgrade of France's credit rating from AA- to A+ reflects the challenges in achieving fiscal discipline, potentially driving investors towards safe-haven assets like the dollar [5]
Memecoins Rally as Traders Bet on Fed Rate Cut and U.S. Altcoin ETFs
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-13 16:54
Group 1 - The memecoin sector is experiencing growth as altcoin season discussions increase, driven by expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which benefits risk assets [1][4] - Bitcoin's market dominance has decreased by 3.5% over the past month, leading to altcoin season indexes entering "altseason" territory, indicating a shift in capital from Bitcoin to altcoins [1][2] - The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) has risen by 7.1% in the last 24 hours, while Bitcoin only increased by 0.3%, highlighting the outperformance of altcoins [2][3] Group 2 - Tokens like SHIB and BONE have contributed to the rise in the CDMEME index, despite recent issues with Shiba Inu's layer-2 network, indicating a growing risk appetite among investors [3] - Traders predict a 92% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month, which is expected to further enhance the appeal of riskier assets like altcoins [4] - A wave of altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is anticipated to enter U.S. markets in the last quarter of the year, potentially attracting more retail and institutional investors to the altcoin space [4][5]