Market Strategy - The Shanghai Composite Index has experienced seven consecutive days of gains, indicating a market that is entering a period of oscillation and upward movement, although the overall increase remains limited [2][7] - The report suggests a focus on structural investments rather than index-heavy strategies, recommending broad-based ETFs that reflect mid-cap blue-chip characteristics [7] - Key sectors identified for investment include advanced manufacturing, non-bank financials, technology, and cyclical industries, which are expected to attract incremental capital and serve as the backbone of the market during this upward trend [7] Industry Strategy - The coal industry is highlighted, with coking coal prices expected to rebound due to seasonal inventory replenishment by downstream steel and coking plants, which is anticipated to support prices in the short term [4][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the coking coal sector for investment opportunities, particularly as downstream purchasing behavior shifts from a wait-and-see approach to active procurement [7] - Recommended stocks in the coal sector include Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) and Jincheng Anthracite Mining Group (601001), both rated for increased holdings [7] Thematic Strategy - The humanoid robot sector is noted for significant advancements in motion control technology, with mass production expected to accelerate in 2026 [5][7] - Recent demonstrations by Tesla and Yush Robot showcase rapid progress in humanoid robot capabilities, indicating a shift in market focus towards actual production rather than just technological advancements [7] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from this trend, with Top Group (601689) recommended for purchase [7]

Group 1: AI Bubble and Market Valuation - The current valuation levels of US stocks, particularly in the AI sector, are approaching those seen during the 2000 dot-com bubble, raising concerns about sustainability [2] - Analysts predict a 10-13% earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2025, with a 15% growth expected in 2026, but there are doubts whether this growth can support current valuations [2] - If major tech companies fail to deliver expected returns from AI investments, market confidence could collapse, leading to significant economic repercussions [2][3] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Economic Resilience - The top 20% of wealthy households in the US hold 70% of financial assets, and their spending accounts for nearly half of total US consumption [3] - A collapse of the AI bubble could lead to a rapid decrease in wealth for these households, resulting in a sharp contraction in consumer spending and a potential recession [3] Group 3: Labor Market and Inflation Risks - The construction of AI infrastructure has created numerous jobs, but a sudden halt in AI investment could lead to widespread job losses and a rise in unemployment [4] - Stricter immigration policies are exacerbating labor shortages, which could lead to increased wage inflation and further economic instability [5] Group 4: Fiscal and Trade Risks - The US federal budget deficit reached $1.8 trillion in the 2025 fiscal year, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [6][7] - Proposed "tariff rebates" by the Trump administration could exacerbate the deficit, especially if they are not supported by corresponding revenue [6][7] Group 5: Federal Reserve Independence - The potential political influence over the Federal Reserve could undermine its independence, leading to uncontrolled inflation and rising long-term interest rates [10][11] - A loss of credibility for the Federal Reserve could result in a significant decline in the value of the US dollar and increased capital flight [12] Group 6: Bond Market Trust Crisis - The US federal deficit is expected to remain high, and any loss of investor confidence could trigger a sell-off in the bond market, affecting global financial stability [13] - European countries are also facing similar challenges, with rising defense spending and increasing public debt levels [14][15] Group 7: Japanese Policy and Global Impact - Japan's recent interest rate hikes could disrupt global financial markets, particularly affecting yen carry trades that have significant implications for liquidity [16][17] - A potential "rate hike-recession" cycle in Japan could further complicate global economic conditions [17] Group 8: Gold Valuation Risks - The significant disparity between the market value and the official valuation of US gold reserves poses risks if the government decides to revalue these assets [18][19] - A revaluation could lead to inflationary pressures and undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve [19][20] Group 9: Geopolitical Risks - The shift in US foreign policy could lead to increased volatility in global markets, particularly concerning energy prices and supply chains [21][22] - Ongoing conflicts in regions like the Middle East and Africa could disrupt critical trade routes, impacting global economic stability [23][25] Group 10: European Political Fragmentation - The rise of far-right parties in Europe and the erosion of EU unity could lead to increased political instability and economic challenges [26][27] - The potential for member states to act independently could weaken the EU's collective decision-making power and exacerbate existing tensions [28] Group 11: Private Credit Market Risks - The private credit market has grown significantly, but rising default rates and financial instability could lead to a broader financial crisis [29][30] - A collapse in this market could trigger a chain reaction affecting traditional financial systems and investor confidence [30]

周五公布的数据显示，由于食品成本压力减缓，日本东京地区12月份的核心消费者物价指数（CPI）同 比涨幅放缓，但仍高于央行2%的目标，这为进一步加息提供了更多理由。该数据支持了日本央行的观 点，即未来几个月核心通胀率将因成本压力缓解而下滑至2%的目标水平以下，之后将恢复更多由需求 驱动的上升，从而可能为进一步加息提供依据。 但一些分析师警告说， 日元重新下跌可能会促使企业继续提价，从而导致由成本拉动的持续通胀，这 可能会加快日本央行的加息步伐。"今天的数据表明，食品通胀可能已经见顶。但 日元疲软可能会给企 业恢复食品涨价提供借口，这可能会使通胀维持在高位。"第一生命经济研究所（Dai-ichi Life Research Institute）的高级执行经济学家Yoshiki Shinke表示。 日本首相高市早苗内阁周五批准创纪录的 7，850 亿美元下一财年预算，旨在通过限制新债发行，在其 积极财政政策与债务恶化担忧之间取得平衡。面对公债收益率上升和 日元疲软，高市政府加大力度安 抚投资者，强调政府不会采取不负责任的发债或减税措施。 将于明年初提交国会的下一财年年度预算，总额将达到创纪录的 122.3 万亿 日 ...

Group 1 - Ed Yardeni is optimistic about the market, predicting the S&P 500 will reach 7,700 by 2026 and 10,000 by 2029, with gold potentially hitting $10,000 per ounce by the end of the decade [1][2] - The S&P 500's path to 10,000 is based on projected earnings growth, with expected earnings per share rising from approximately $270 this year to around $500 by 2030, applying a price-to-earnings ratio of about 20 [2][10] - Yardeni emphasizes the resilience of the economy and productivity improvements driven by the digital revolution and AI, which he believes will support higher profitability [3][4] Group 2 - Yardeni advises against over-allocating to technology stocks, suggesting a balanced approach with diversification into sectors like healthcare, industrials, and financials [6][10] - He has shifted his stance on gold, now viewing it as a strategic diversification tool due to increased central bank purchases and demand from key regions like China and India [7][8] - The relationship between gold and the S&P 500 is noted, with both potentially trending upward simultaneously, reflecting a strategic hedge in a politically and economically uncertain environment [9][10] Group 3 - Key variables that could support Yardeni's bullish outlook include avoiding recession, measurable productivity gains from AI, and managing market concentration risks through sector rotation [10][11][12] - The overall narrative suggests that while the path to 10,000 points for the S&P 500 may involve volatility and cyclical shifts, sustained earnings growth and reasonable valuation multiples are crucial [13]

12月25日举行的第七届人民网内容科技论坛上，沐曦股份研发副总裁黄向军展示了国产高性能GPU的最 新进展。他在发言中表示，沐曦致力于打造世界一流的GPU芯片及计算平台，努力成为数字经济的算力 基石，并已在关键技术上取得系列突破。黄向军介绍，经过五年左右技术积累，沐曦完成了到产品矩阵 落地的跨越式发展，已打造自研的完整产品线，明确三大产品系列：曦思（N系列）主要为推理产品； 曦云（C系列）主打训推一体产品；此外还有曦彩（G系列），做图形渲染的产品线。目前，曦思与曦 云系列产品已进入规模量产阶段。谈及技术路线选择，黄向军强调了"通用性"这一核心理念。他解释， 由于芯片研发长周期与软件快速迭代之间存在天然不匹配，且高性能GPU主要应用于多任务、多负载的 数据中心场景，因此必须确保芯片具备足够的通用性以适应未来多样化的计算需求。（人民网） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of high-level technological self-reliance and strength as a strategic support for high-quality development in China, particularly focusing on the advancements in domestic high-performance GPU technology by Muxi Co., Ltd. [2] Group 1: Technological Advancements - Muxi Co., Ltd. has made significant progress in developing world-class GPU chips and computing platforms, aiming to become a cornerstone of the digital economy [2]. - After approximately five years of technological accumulation, Muxi has achieved a leap in product development, establishing a complete product line with three main series: Xisi (N series) for inference products, Xiyun (C series) for integrated training and inference products, and Xicai (G series) for graphics rendering [2]. - The Xisi and Xiyun series products have entered mass production [2]. Group 2: Technical Strategy - The core concept of Muxi's technical route is "universality," ensuring that chips can adapt to diverse future computing needs due to the mismatch between the long development cycle of chips and the rapid iteration of software [2]. - High-performance GPUs are primarily used in multi-tasking and multi-load data center scenarios, necessitating sufficient versatility [2]. Group 3: Software Ecosystem - Muxi's software team has developed a widely compatible self-researched software stack, claiming full support for all operators on PyTorch [3]. - Testing on nearly 4,500 active open-source application repositories shows that 92% can achieve "plug-and-play" functionality on Muxi's platform [3]. - Muxi can effectively support the entire process of training, fine-tuning, and inference, achieving comparable computing power utilization rates to international flagship platforms on mainstream models like Llama, ChatGLM, and DeepSeek [3]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Product Strategy - Muxi has established a fully domestic supply chain for its products, exemplified by the C600 product launched mid-year, which covers design, manufacturing, and packaging testing [3]. - The company follows a product strategy of "one generation on sale, one generation in research, and one generation in pre-research," with smooth progress on the next-generation C700 product [3]. - Muxi is pursuing a development path characterized by "hardware independence, software control, and open ecology," contributing to breakthroughs in the domestic GPU industry and strengthening the digital economy's computing foundation [3].

我是芯片超人花姐，入行20年，有50W+芯片行业粉丝。 有很多不方便公开发公众号的， 关于芯片买卖、关于资 源链接等， 我会分享在朋友圈 。 扫码加我本人微信 上周 ADI 最新涨价函释出，传ADI 由于成本上涨要对明年2月1日开始发货的订单产品 进行 涨 价。此后这封涨价函持续刷屏，在社交媒体上发酵。虽然正式涨价还没生效，但市场反应已经提前 出现： 客户需求开始明显升温，部分型号现货价格出现波动， 甚至出现 部分扫货和捂盘现 象…… 在此背景下， ADI 的涨价对目前芯片现货市场带来了哪些影响？今年ADI 芯片现货 市场表现如 何？ADI原厂今年业绩 表现怎么样 ？ 原厂 怎么看未来走向？ 01 ADI涨价，目前对市场有哪些影响？ 实际上 ， 今年11月 开始 ，市场上就 陆续 传出 ADI 可能涨价的消息 。如今涨价函 释出 ， 靴 子也终于落地 。 不少分销商在社交媒体上转发相关信息，提醒客户提前做好备货准备，尽早安排采购计划。 来源：读者朋友圈，以官宣为准 从目前流出的内容来看，这封涨价函并未披露具体产品的调价幅度。但市场传闻显示，ADI 此轮 涨价或将针对不同客户层级及不同料号实行差异化定价调整，涨 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the launch of the SesameX multi-dimensional embodied intelligent computing platform, which aims to transition robots from being "operational" to "evolving" [1] - The global robotics industry is evolving towards complex tasks, necessitating a stable, scalable intelligent computing foundation to address real-world challenges [1] - The SesameX platform includes three self-developed computing modules (Kalos, Aura, Liora) that are highly integrated with hardware components and compatible with mainstream interfaces, providing a production-level hardware foundation [1] Group 2 - The company is collaborating with Junsheng Electronics to expand into the robotics field, focusing on the development and validation of next-generation embodied intelligent robot control systems and industry solutions [2] - A strategic partnership with Zhichizhi Yuan, a subsidiary of Zhongji Xuchuang, aims to innovate applications of optical communication modules in automotive (assisted driving) and embodied intelligent terminals (robots) [2] - The company plans to develop full-scene assisted driving solutions for passenger and commercial vehicles, covering levels L2 to L4 of autonomous driving needs, by combining chip computing power with high-speed optical transmission [2] Group 3 - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 810 million, 1.4 billion, and 2.01 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with expected net profits of -1.21 billion, -640 million, and -140 million yuan [2]

Core Insights - The rise of domestic AI chip manufacturers in China's stock market has garnered significant attention, with companies like Cambricon (寒武纪) and Moore Threads (摩尔线程) achieving remarkable stock price increases upon their listings [2][3] - The market is witnessing a surge in domestic GPU manufacturers, with several companies preparing for IPOs, indicating a growing interest in AI chip production [3][4] - Despite high expectations for domestic AI chips, challenges remain, including competition from established players like NVIDIA and the need for these companies to prove their value in a crowded market [10][11] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Cambricon surpassed Kweichow Moutai to become the highest-priced stock in A-shares, reflecting investor enthusiasm for AI chip stocks [2] - Moore Threads and Muxi Technology saw their stock prices soar on their debut, with Muxi achieving a record profit for new listings in nearly a decade [2][3] - The entry of NVIDIA's H200 chip into the Chinese market adds complexity to the competitive landscape for domestic GPU manufacturers [3][16] Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue growth for Moore Threads, Muxi, Bilan Technology, and Tensu Zhixin from 2022 to 2024 shows significant increases, but all companies reported substantial losses during the same period [7][8] - The revenue from the top five customers for these GPU manufacturers is highly concentrated, with some companies relying on a small number of clients for the majority of their income [9][10] Group 3: Market Share and Competition - The market share of domestic GPU manufacturers remains low, with Muxi holding approximately 1% of the AI accelerator market in 2024, and other companies reporting similar figures [9][10] - The competition among these manufacturers is intensifying, with no clear leader emerging in terms of market share or product performance [10][11] Group 4: Customer Dynamics - The customer base for these GPU manufacturers is highly concentrated, with significant fluctuations in client relationships, indicating potential revenue instability [9][10] - Major clients are increasingly shifting, with only a few companies remaining consistent among the top customers year over year [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - The domestic GPU market is expected to see a gradual increase in localization, with projections indicating that the domestic GPU market's localization rate will rise from 2% in 2022 to over 50% by 2029 [12][13] - Companies are focusing on enhancing product performance and building a robust ecosystem to compete effectively against international players like NVIDIA [18][20]

▲ 戳蓝 色字关注我们！ "人生如旷野，而非轨道。每个人都有自己的时区，不必追赶他人的脚步。"——木心 你怎么看"98年的 姚顺雨 担任腾讯首席AI科学家"这件事。 但促使我做这篇文章的原因，是我一个朋友给我发的一张聊天记录截图。截图里是一位家长看到姚顺雨的新闻后，给孩子发的一长段微信。那段 话我看了真的挺有感触的。 这位家长说："儿子，你好好看看这文章，妈妈看完一晚没睡。这个姚顺雨也是同一年的吧？人家在腾讯做首席科学家，带几千人开发AI，你在 干 嘛 ？ 你 要 是 有 姚 顺 雨 一 半 的 科 研 功 力 ， 妈 妈 这 辈 子 是 不 是 都 做 梦 笑 醒 ？ 你 现 在 这 年 纪 正 是 定 胜 负 的 时 候 ， 你 不 努 力 ， 到 时 候 连 去 Jane Street、Two Sigma或者Anthropic这些顶级公司的门都敲不开……" 看到这段话，我突然意识到， 95后离开校园以后，依然逃不掉父母的"鸡娃焦虑"？只不过以前比的是中考、高考，现在比的是职级、薪资、 title。 所以今天我不想聊腾讯的AI战略布局，也不想分析姚顺雨的简历有多牛——清华姚班、普林斯顿博士、OpenAI核 ...