截至2025年12月22日 14:59，上证科创板半导体材料设备主题指数(950125)强势上涨4.45%，成分股艾森股份(688720)上涨19.00%，芯源微(688037)上涨 10.08%，拓荆科技(688072)上涨9.97%，神工股份(688233)，京仪装备(688652)等个股跟涨。科创半导体ETF(588170)上涨4.14%，最新价报1.51元。拉长时间 看，截至2025年12月19日，科创半导体ETF近2周累计上涨3.50%。（以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之意） | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 688120 | 华海清科 | 2.89% | 10.26% | | 688072 | 拓荆科技 | 9.97% | 9.87% | | 688126 | 沪硅产业 | 2.83% | 9.09% | | 688019 | 安集科技 | 3.75% | 7.30% | | 688361 | 中科飞测 | 4.86% | 7.06% | | 688037 | 芯源微 | 10.08% | 6.52% | | 68 ...

| 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证5C | | --- | --- | --- | | 3917.36 | 13332.73 | 1449.2 | | +26.92 +0.69% +192.52 +1.47% +3.45 +0 | | | | 科创20 | 创业板指 | 万得全/ | | 1335.25 | 3191.98 | 6319.0 | | +26.66 +2.04% +69.75 +2.23% +61.49 +0 | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A5( | | 4611.62 | 7255.66 | 5580.2 | | +43.45 +0.95% +86.11 +1.20% +64.11 +1 | | | | 中证1000 | 中证2000 | 中证红和 | | 7408.35 | 3137.92 | 5458.2 | | +78.54 +1.07% +26.76 +0.86% -25.12 -0 | | | A股主要指数今日高开高走，截至收盘，沪指涨0.69%报3917点，深证成指涨1.47%，创业板指涨2.23%，科创50指数涨2.04%。全市场成交额1.88万亿元，较 ...

全文共9600字，阅读大约需要19分钟 文 财信研究院宏观团队 伍超明、胡文艳、李沫、段雨佳 核心观点 二、大类资产配置框架及阶段研判 基于"宏观资产配置三维金字塔"框架，2026年市场处于复杂过渡期。战略层，国内仍处于金融周期下行阶段，需维持整体防御基调；扰动层，地缘政治风 险从混乱转向有序对抗，但仍需对"黑天鹅"事件保持警惕；战术层，大概率呈现"经济见底上行+金融宽松收敛"组合，为把握商品与股票的结构性机会提 供了窗口。综上，2026年大类资产配置核心思路在于：战略防御为基；战术适度进取；全程管理管理。 三、2026年配置展望：大势在股商，决胜在结构 股市：在经济基本面改善、资金面充裕及估值合理的背景下，A股有望迎来盈利驱动行情。聚焦五大方向：一是人工智能、半导体等盈利改善能见度高的 科技主线；二是电力设备、汽车零部件、数字基建等高质量出海主线；三是与化工等反内卷受益板块；四是铜、铝等主线；五是高股息红利资产。 债市：预计2026年十年期国债收益率呈"宽幅震荡、中枢温和抬升"格局，运行区间位于1.6%-2.1%，节奏预计"前震荡偏多，后调整承压"。核心逻辑在于 PPI回升与"资产荒"缓解将构成关键制约，但 ...

12月19日，在华尔街见闻和中欧国际工商学院联合主办的「Alpha峰会」上，广发证券所长助理、首席策略刘晨明发表了题为《挣脱牢笼：打破历史经验的 桎梏——2026年年度策略》的演讲。 他表示，2025年全球资产呈现出"AI科技股与资源品（黄金、铜）"同步走强的独特现象，这并非逻辑对立，而是全球主要经济体针对"债务问题"这一核心 矛盾的共同定价。化解债务唯有依靠技术进步提升全要素生产率（AI路径）或通过通胀稀释债务（资源路径），这两者构成了当前宏观逻辑的一体两面。 刘晨明认为，中国权益市场的盈利结构已发生质变，从过去的"80/20"演变为目前的"60%传统内需+40%新兴产业与出海"。其中，出海链条展现出比国内业 务更高的盈利质量，成为支撑市场韧性的核心。 展望2026年，他认为A股ROE回升趋势将更加明确。在估值克制、监管把控加强以及国家队、险资等长期增量资金入场的背景下，市场将由"快牛"转向更为 健康的"慢牛"。由于AI、半导体及资源品等主线行业正面临显著的"供给约束"，产业趋势短期难以结束。 以下为演讲精彩观点： 1、从最经典的主权债务演化方程出发，在不出现实质性违约的前提下，化债有三个方式：真实增长超过 ...

今日（12月22日）科技成长方向大反攻，创业板指、科创50纷纷涨超2%，覆盖创业板+科创板高成长龙 头的硬科技宽基——双创龙头ETF（588330）场内价格一度涨近3%，现涨2.85%，盘中收复10日均线。 细分方向来看，光模块三巨头方面，中际旭创涨超8%，新易盛涨逾6%再创新高，天孚通信涨超4%；半 导体设备方面，拓荆科技涨超9%，盛美上海涨逾6%。此外，光伏龙头晶盛机电涨超8%，印制电路板 （PCB）龙头胜宏科技涨逾3%。 图：双创龙头ETF标的指数涨幅前10大成份股 | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日图 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 拓削科技 | 9.13% | 1 | 电子 | 半导体 | 半导体设备 | 1005亿 | 21.06亿 | | 2 | 中标相剧 | | 8.48% ------- | 通信 | 通信设备 | 通信网络设备及器件 | 68911Z | 207.59亿 | | ਤੋ | 晶盛机电 | 8,3 ...

华福证券研报指出，宇晶股份再获海外光伏客户重要订单，彰显海外业务扩张能力。考虑到公司海外市 场的扩张，以及24年10月的两笔海外订单在公司公告中明确提到将对25年经营业绩产生积极影响；公司 积极探索消费电子行业和半导体行业的机会，预计明后年产品结构持续优化，消费电子和半导体行业打 开增量空间预期；25年12月新签海外重大订单2亿；因此上调26年/27年收入增速分别为53%、36%，上 调26年/27年毛利率分别为30.4%、31.4%。鉴于公司盈利能力提升，该行将公司评级上调为"买入"。 ...

兴业证券指出，3D打印在消费电子领域加速渗透，折叠机铰链、手表/手机中框等场景有望开启应用元 年。AI训练和推理成本降低推动应用繁荣，端侧AI潜力巨大，耳机和眼镜或成为重要载体。苹果AI Phone引领趋势，AI功能升级可能带动超级换机周期。AI浪潮驱动算力需求爆发，服务器、AI芯片、光 芯片、存储、PCB等环节价值量显著提升。SEMI预计2025年全球半导体设备销售额达1330亿美元，同 比增长13.7%，2026年进一步增至1450亿美元，主要受AI投资推动，尤其在尖端逻辑电路、存储及先进 封装领域。美光科技业绩超预期，DRAM短缺或持续至2026年后，存储价格触底回升，封测环节稼动率 逐步恢复，先进封装需求将随AI芯片增长而爆发。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 信创ETF（159537）跟踪的是国证信创指数（CN5075），该指数从沪深市场中精选涉及半导体、软件 开发、计算机设备等信息技术主题的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映信息技术创新领域相关上市公 司证券的整体表现。该指数偏重大盘风格，成分股平均市值较高，行业配置上以半导体、软件开发及IT 服务为主。 ...

Group 1: Samsung's 2nm Chip Launch - Samsung has officially launched the world's first 2nm mobile application processor, the Exynos 2600, designed by its System LSI division and manufactured using its own foundry with GAA technology [4] - The Exynos 2600 features a new 10-core CPU design based on the Arm v9.3 architecture, with a high-performance core running at up to 3.8GHz, supported by three performance cores and six efficiency cores [4] - The chip introduces the Xclipse 960 GPU and an upgraded NPU that accelerates processing speed by 113%, along with AI algorithms for image processing, supporting cameras up to 320 million pixels [4] Group 2: ByteDance's Talent Investment - ByteDance has announced an increase in talent investment, enhancing salary competitiveness and stock option incentives for its global employees [5] - The measures include a 35% increase in the performance evaluation cycle for bonuses, a 1.5 times increase in salary adjustments compared to the previous cycle, and raising the salary package limits for all job levels [5] - The company aims to ensure that employee compensation remains competitive and leading in global markets [5] Group 3: Elon Musk's Wealth Milestone - Elon Musk has become the first individual in history to surpass a net worth of $700 billion, reaching $749 billion as of December 21, according to Forbes [6] - This surge in wealth is attributed to the restoration of a long-suspended compensation plan, which was valued at $56 billion when Musk received it from Tesla in 2018 [6] - The Delaware Supreme Court reinstated this compensation plan, which had previously been rejected by a lower court [6] Group 4: OpenAI's Funding Goals - OpenAI is seeking to raise up to $100 billion to fund its ambitious growth plans, with the current market interest in artificial intelligence cooling down [7] - If successful in raising the full amount, OpenAI's valuation could reach $830 billion [7] - The funding round is still in its early stages, and the completion is targeted for the end of the first quarter of next year [7] Group 5: SoftBank's Commitment to OpenAI - SoftBank is racing against time to fulfill its $22.5 billion funding commitment to OpenAI by the end of the year [8] - The company is exploring various cash-raising strategies, including selling parts of its investments, and has already sold its entire stake in Nvidia for $5.8 billion [8] - SoftBank's CEO Masayoshi Son is also slowing down other transactions related to the Vision Fund [8] Group 6: Meta's AI Development - Meta Platforms is developing a new AI model focused on images and videos, codenamed Mango, alongside a next-generation text-based language model [9] - These models are expected to be released in the first half of 2026 [9] - The AI models will debut soon, with another language model codenamed Avocado being launched simultaneously [9] Group 7: NVIDIA's Investment in Intel - The U.S. Federal Trade Commission has approved NVIDIA's $5 billion investment in Intel, aimed at supporting the domestic semiconductor industry [10] - The details of the transaction remain undisclosed, but it raises concerns about potential changes in the competitive landscape, particularly for competitors like TSMC and AMD [10] Group 8: Visa Processing Delays for Foreign Employees - Google and Apple have advised some foreign employees on work visas to avoid international travel due to delays in U.S. visa processing caused by new social media scrutiny requirements [11] - The delays have extended visa appointment wait times, with some face-to-face interviews pushed back by up to a year [11] Group 9: Google Privacy Lawsuit in Spain - A Spanish consumer rights organization has initiated preliminary legal proceedings against Google, accusing it of collecting sensitive personal data and violating privacy rights [12] - The organization claims that Google has gathered data on users' personal opinions, religious beliefs, and health status through its applications and Android operating system [12] - It estimates that up to 37 million users in Spain may be affected by this data collection [12] Group 10: Kakao's Negotiations with Upstage - Kakao is in talks with the South Korean AI startup Upstage regarding the potential sale of its portal site Daum [13] - Kakao holds full ownership of Daum's parent company, AXZ, and the transfer of operational control may occur through a share exchange with Upstage [13] - Upstage is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) in early next year [13] Group 11: Japan's National AI Project - The Japanese government plans to collaborate with the private sector to launch a large-scale national AI project valued at approximately 3 trillion yen (about $190 billion) [14][15] - The new company, led by SoftBank and involving over ten Japanese firms, aims to develop the country's largest foundational AI model [14] - The project is expected to gather around 100 experts selected through a company competition, including engineers from SoftBank and developers from Preferred Networks [14]

截至午间收盘，科创成长指数上涨2.3%，科创板50指数上涨2.0%，科创100指数上涨1.8%，科创综指上涨1.7%。资金持续借道相 关ETF布局科创板，Wind数据显示，截至上周五，科创板50ETF（588080）近10个交易日合计"吸金"16.5亿元。 | 科创板50ETF 低费率 | | | 588080 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 跟踪上证科创板50成份指数 | | | | | 该指数由科创板中市值大、流动性 | 截至午间收盘 | 该指数 | 该指数自2020年 | | 好的50只股票组成,"硬科技"龙 | 该指数涨跌 | 滚动市盈率 | 发布以来估值分位 | | 头特征显著,半导体占比超65%, | | | | | 与医疗器械、软件开发、光伏设备 行业合计占比近80% | 2. 0% | 155.4倍 | 95. 7% | | 科创100ETF易方达 【用于平 | | | 588210 | | 跟踪上证科创板100指数 | | | | | 该指数由科创板中市值中等且流动 | 截至午间收盘 | 该指数 | | | 性较好的100只股票组成,聚焦中 | 该指数涨跌 | 滚 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 华福证券指出，当前电子与半导体行业正经历由AI驱动的存储超级周期，核心逻辑是AI服务器对存储 的海量需求与头部厂商产能向高端倾斜导致的供需缺口。HBM作为AI服务器核心组件，需求爆发式增 长，美光科技2026年HBM供应量已全部售罄。本轮周期与以往不同，AI应用从训练向推理与边缘侧转 向，推动HBM、高性能DDR5等品类快速增长，同时原厂将产能转向技术壁垒高的HBM、DDR5，收缩 DDR4等传统产能，导致供给缺口持续扩大。2025年三季度AI需求超预期，叠加三星、SK海力士、美光 等减产及产线升级，供需紧张加剧。存储芯片价格持续上涨，模组环节受益于存货增值与下游补库需 求，短期弹性突出；设备与材料环节因技术升级需求旺盛，长期确定性高。车规级存储受益于新能源汽 车智能化，需求快速增长。短期涨价趋势或将延续，中长期取决于AI需求持续性与产能释放节奏。 科创芯片ETF国泰（589100）跟踪的是科创芯片指数（000685），单日涨跌幅限制达20%，该指数从科 创板市场中选取涉及半导体材料、设备、芯片设计、制造及封装测试等全产业链环节的市值较大证券作 为指数样本，聚焦高纯度国产替代和AI ...