Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3][4] 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the sugar market, presenting current price data, macro and industry news, and supply - demand forecasts. It indicates that the sugar market is waiting for super - expected information guidance [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 16.56 cents/pound with a 0% year - on - year change; the mainstream spot price is 6050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan year - on - year; the futures main contract price is 5808 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan year - on - year. The 91 spread is 172 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan year - on - year; the 15 spread is 55 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan year - on - year; the mainstream spot basis is 242 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan year - on - year [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - High - frequency information shows that Pakistan has approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar; the sugarcane crushing progress in central - southern Brazil is still slow, but the MIX is significantly higher year - on - year; India's monsoon precipitation is higher than the long - period average (LPA); Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase; China imported 350,000 tons of sugar in May [1] 3.3 Supply - Demand Forecast - **Domestic Market**: CAOC predicts that in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, China's sugar production will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. As of the end of May in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, China produced 11.16 million tons of sugar (+1.2 million tons), sold 8.11 million tons (+1.52 million tons), with a cumulative sales rate of 72.7%. China imported 2.1 million tons of sugar (-1.04 million tons) [2] - **International Market**: ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season (previously 4.88 million tons). As of July 1 in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil decreased by 14 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 12.25 million tons (-2.04 million tons), and the cumulative MIX increased by 2.33 percentage points year - on - year. As of May 15 in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, India produced 25.74 million tons of sugar (-5.8 million tons), and Thailand produced 10.08 million tons of sugar (+1.27 million tons) [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]

Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the sugar industry in China, including its development background, supply and demand situation, market size, and competitive landscape, predicting a market size of 24.42 billion yuan by 2025 [2] - The rapid growth in sugar consumption in China is driven by rising living standards and consumption upgrades, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.6% from 2026 to 2031, reaching a market size of 44.56 billion yuan by 2028 [3] Industry Overview - Sugar is a vital commodity in China, second only to grain and cooking oil, with extensive applications in food processing, catering, and residential consumption [2] - The Chinese sugar industry has developed a significant scale, with leading domestic companies gaining competitive advantages through strategies such as extending the industrial chain, building sales networks, enhancing brand image, and cultivating professional talent [2] Market Development - The demand for sugar is significantly influenced by the growth of downstream industries such as beverages and baked goods, which are expanding rapidly [3] - The report outlines various environmental factors affecting the sugar industry, including economic, social, policy, and technological aspects, both domestically and globally [4] Future Trends - The report forecasts a robust growth trajectory for the sugar industry, with key growth drivers identified, including policy support and the reduction of supply-demand gaps through sugar beet production [11] - The analysis includes a SWOT assessment of the sugar industry, highlighting potential investment opportunities and strategic recommendations for stakeholders [12]

那么历年近几年最高的产量是1718年度产生了1.9422万灯其他主产国像印度今年产量有巨大的变化它应该是连续前面最高年份是3688万灯2122炸机 后面连续应该是第三个年份产量下降去年的话是3168今年按照目前的数据来看的话很可能在2600以内泰国表现的稍好一点那么今年的产量有所恢复 目前看的话它的总产量应该在1005万帧左右的样子欧盟也是表现还行大概目前的最新的数据还维持在1700万帧也是一个预测数据可能要等到5月份它的最终的数据才会慢慢的出现再像中国 大家好欢迎关注会商期货机事洞察栏目今天给大家带来的主题是白糖现阶段供需分析我是主讲人宋向阳如果近期您有特别关注的期货品种希望在直播中听到老师的深度讲解您可以通过页面中展示的方式联系到我们的专业人员及团队为您提前预约讲解内容 好我们现在开始分三块内容给大家介绍一下首先我们看一下白糖的供应我们先了解一下全球白糖产量年度变化全球2425年度的产量是1.86亿吨 消费是1.754亿吨这是产量那么数据来源是美国农业部这个是国际糖业组织这个其实是两个机构分别给的这个数据差异比较大主要是跟统计口径或者是其他方面原因造成比如说它的趋势相对还是比较一致的 中国现在今年产量可能 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 联系方式： :huangying_qh1@chinastock.com.cn | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | SR2509 | | 5,802 | -15 | -0.26% | 143,216 | -18.77% | 317,114 | -3.20% | | SR2601 | | 5,635 | - 4 | -0.07% | 19,895 | -17.88% | 114,390 | 0.73% | | SR2511 | | 5,694 | 7 | 0.12% | 20,230 | -13.80% | 51,934 | -3.19% | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 湛江 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 | 日照 | 西安 | | 今日报价 | | 6130 | 5905 | - | 6060 | 61 ...

Group 1: Investor Relations Activities - The company held an online investor reception day on July 11, 2025, via a network platform [3] - Participants included the chairman, general manager, and other key executives [3] Group 2: Key Discussion Topics - The company addressed investor concerns regarding internal control and risk management, confirming that internal control deficiencies have been rectified [5] - Investors inquired about potential collaborations with online platforms and the company's ability to customize products for different customer segments [5] - The company outlined strategies to improve performance in 2025, focusing on enhancing raw material quality, maintaining stable livestock operations, diversifying dairy products, and prioritizing quality in sugar production [5] Group 3: Financial Health and Risk Management - The company reported sufficient liquidity and normal operations, stating that futures trading losses have been accounted for in 2024 and will not impact 2025 performance [6] - Plans to revise and enhance futures hedging policies were discussed to strengthen internal control management [6] Group 4: Future Outlook and Management - The company has set operational goals for 2025, emphasizing the importance of a circular economy model across its agricultural, livestock, dairy, and sugar industries [7] - The company aims to improve production efficiency, reduce costs, and enhance product quality to achieve better operational results and boost investor confidence [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, as Brazil is approaching its supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter an accumulation phase. The raw sugar market is predicted to remain volatile in the long - term, with short - term trends influenced by production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in output. Domestically, the fast sales pace may support sugar prices, but the upcoming large - scale import of sugar may drag prices down. In the short term, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain volatile [3]. - Raw sugar is affected by the global supply - demand relaxation expectation and is likely to remain weak in the short term, with potential buying support at lower levels. In contrast, the faster domestic sales rhythm supports spot prices. However, due to the short - term weakness of raw sugar, the rising profit of out - of - quota imports, and the upcoming processing sugar supply pressure, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to passively follow the raw sugar price fluctuations [4]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - International: With Brazil's approaching supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to accumulate. Raw sugar will generally maintain a volatile trend, and short - term trends depend on production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase [3]. - Domestic: The fast sales pace may support sugar prices, but the large - scale import of sugar may drag prices down. Short - term sugar prices are expected to remain volatile [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar will passively follow raw sugar and remain volatile [5]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. - Options: Use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - 24/25 Northern Hemisphere production increase was less than expected. In the 25/26 season, the Northern Hemisphere is expected to have a restorative increase, and attention should be paid to Brazil's crushing situation [7]. Brazil's Situation - The crushing in the central - southern region of Brazil is lower than the same period last year. Factors such as weather - affected sugarcane yield, lower sugar content, and higher sugar - making ratio should be noted. The sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region remains high [9][10][12]. Other Countries' Situations - Thailand is expected to have a slight increase in production in the new season. In the 24/25 season, sugar production was 10.14 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.4 million tons), and exports from January to April 2025 were 2.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.58 million tons. The 25/26 season is expected to have a slight increase [18][21]. - In India, attention should be paid to the impact of ethanol volume on sugar supply and demand. The 25/26 season may see a restorative increase. In the 24/25 season, sugar production was about 26 million tons. As of May 15, 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 25.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.5% [22][23]. Domestic Situation - In the 25/26 season, domestic sugar production is expected to have a restorative increase. In the 24/25 season, the sales - to - production ratio was relatively high, and inventory was at a low level. In the 25/26 season, domestic sugar is in an increasing cycle, with an expected increase to about 11 million tons (subject to weather changes) [25]. - The rising import profit drives a strong import expectation, and import volume is expected to increase [28][31]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides data on Brazil's central - southern region's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume, sugar production, and sugar - making ratio; the relationship between crude oil and raw sugar prices; Brazil's monthly sugar exports and inventory; India and Thailand's double - week sugar production; and China's monthly sugar production, sales, inventory, and sugar imports [35][42][46][47][52].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - International supply is expected to be loose, suppressing raw sugar prices, but short - term support exists due to Pakistan's import plan and reduced sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in late June [2]. - In China, there is a divergence in price trends between domestic and foreign markets. The opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports will release import pressure and suppress sugar prices. However, the summer consumption peak and the demand for food and beverage inventory replenishment provide some support for sugar prices [2]. - Recently, the domestic white sugar price fluctuates repeatedly following raw sugar, but shows stronger performance than the foreign market due to rising domestic demand. In the later period, with both supply and demand being strong, price fluctuations will intensify. Attention should be paid to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5817 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 7 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 327,581 hands, with a change of 17,613 hands [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 22,716, and the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0, a decrease of 106 [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 22,354 hands [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4539 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan [2]. - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5769 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5905 yuan/ton, 6060 yuan/ton, and 6140 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. - The national cumulative sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 869,200 tons [2]. - The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 350,000 tons, an increase of 220,000 tons; Brazil's monthly sugar export volume is 3.359 million tons, an increase of 1.1024 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1543 yuan/ton, an increase of 84 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1414 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 353 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 184 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for sugar is 7.55%, a decrease of 3.45 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.58%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.55%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's latest supply - demand report shows that the US sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - making season starting in October is 9.19 million short tons, a decrease of 59,000 short tons from last month's estimate due to the decline in beet sugar production. Sugar consumption is expected to be reduced by 165,000 short tons to 12.16 million short tons [2].

白糖数据日报 | 1 | | | 农产品中心 | 期货从业资格证号 | | 投资咨询证号 | 2025/7/14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 谢威 | F03087820 | | Z0019508 | | | 团白 | | 地区 | 2025/7/11 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水 | 与2509基差 | 涨跌值 | | 报糖 | 广西 | 南宁仓库 | 6140 | 10 | 0 | 330 | 5 | | 吨价现 | | 昆明 | 5905 | 10 | -100 | 195 | 5 | | 〜ご覧 | 云南 | 大理 | 5800 | 10 | -140 | 130 | 5 | | 元集 | 山东 | 日照 | 6135 | 0 | 100 | 225 | -5 | | 数 盘 | | SR09 | 5810 | 5 | SR09-01 | 181 | 8 | | 据 面 | | SR01 | 5629 | -3 | | | | | हि | 人民币兑美元 | 7. 1945 | -0. 0020 | ice原糖主力 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The import supply pressure of sugar may increase in the second half of the year. If the external market price does not rebound significantly, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline. [2][4] - The current domestic sugar price spread structure is contradictory. The 9 - 1 spread of Zhengzhou sugar has a positive spread, while the 7 - 9 spread has a reverse spread, which is contrary to the theoretical situation. [15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Import Supply Pressure - Since mid - May, the international sugar price has continued to decline. The price of ICE raw sugar October contract has weakened from over 18 cents per pound, and the July contract once fell below 15 cents per pound. The low delivery price and small quantity indicate insufficient actual demand. [4] - With the decline of the external market price, China's out - of - quota import cost has dropped from around 6200 yuan per ton to about 5600 yuan per ton. Currently, China is in the best import profit window in the past 5 years, with the out - of - quota spot import profit exceeding 600 yuan per ton and the out - of - quota import profit on the futures market exceeding 100 yuan per ton. The import supply is likely to increase in the second half of the year. [4] - In June, Brazil exported 3360000 tons of sugar, an increase of 1100000 tons from May and 160000 tons from last year. The sugar exported to China in June was 760000 tons, an increase of 240000 tons from May and 320000 tons from last year. The supply of processed sugar in the spot market has increased recently. [5] 3.2 Domestic Price Spread Structure - As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season has ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons, or 23.07%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The industrial inventory was 3048300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322100 tons. [14] - If the import supply increases as expected in the second half of the year, the basis between the spot and futures prices may return, and it is more likely that the spot price will return to the futures price. [15] - The monthly spread structure of the futures market is contradictory. The 9 - 1 spread of Zhengzhou sugar has a positive spread, the 7 - 9 spread has a reverse spread, and the 1 - 5 spread fluctuates around 50 yuan per ton. The valuation of the September contract of Zhengzhou sugar is relatively high compared with other contracts. [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the domestic market, the previous rebound of Zhengzhou sugar caused by capital games has ended, and the market has turned to consolidation. The main short - position has reversed to a net long - position, which may support the sugar price to rebound further if the long - position increases. The domestic market is influenced by macro anti - involution and shows a bullish trend. The spot market has improved with rising prices. The upcoming June production and sales data is expected to increase slightly year - on - year. Low inventory still supports prices, but attention should be paid to the price changes of processed sugar. The operating range is expected to be between 5700 - 5850 yuan/ton. - In the international market, the raw sugar market has calmed down after significant fluctuations. The international market is still pressured by Brazil's large supply, but the market is not optimistic about Brazil's sugar production in the second half of June, with an expected year - on - year decline of 9.8% to 295,000 tons. Purchases from Pakistan and the Philippines in the international market may limit the downside of international sugar prices [59]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 0.71%. ICE sugar futures fluctuated slightly, with a weekly decline of 0.67% [9]. - **Spot Price and Basis Trends**: No specific data on price and basis trends are described in the provided text. - **National Production and Sales Situation**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in May was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [18]. - **Sugar Import Situation**: In May, 350,000 tons of sugar were imported, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year. Based on the ICE sugar October contract price of 16.5 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 4539 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 5769 yuan/ton; the in - quota import cost from Thailand was 4580 yuan/ton, and the out - quota import cost was 5822 yuan/ton [22]. - **Domestic Industrial Inventory**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in May was 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 322,100 tons compared with the same period last year [25]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 23,040, a decrease of 480 compared with the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 22,934, and the effective forecast was 106 [33]. - **Brazilian Production Progress**: In the first half of June, the cumulative crushing volume was 164 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.33%, and the sugar production was 9.404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.63% [37]. - **Brazilian Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio**: The bi - weekly cumulative sugar - making ratio from sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 50.45%, compared with 48.33% in the same period last year [39]. - **Brazilian Monthly Sugar Exports**: Brazil's sugar exports in June were 3.359 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.24% [45]. - **International Main Production Area Weather Conditions**: There was little rainfall in the main production areas of Brazil, which was beneficial for sugarcane crushing. India had abundant precipitation due to the influence of the monsoon [53][55]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - **Domestic Market**: The domestic sugar market is expected to operate in the range of 5700 - 5850 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the price changes of processed sugar [59]. - **International Market**: The raw sugar market is expected to have limited downside due to purchases from Pakistan and the Philippines, despite pressure from Brazil's supply [59]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term trading is recommended [60].