Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: Approaching Peak Domestic Sugar Pressing, Prices Under Pressure to Decline [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, Brazilian sugar is entering the harvest phase, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. The international sugar price has shown signs of bottoming out and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. Domestically, sugar mills are in the peak pressing season, and the supply and sales pressure will increase. However, due to tightened imports and high production costs, the downward price space is expected to be limited [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: Wait and see as the Brazilian sugar season is nearing the end, and although the domestic market has increased supply pressure, the downward price space is limited due to high production costs and low current prices [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4]. - Options: Sell put options at low prices [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes**: - In the 2025/26 sugar season, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus of 163 tons, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption increasing by only 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. The 2024/25 season had a supply - demand gap of 292 tons. Datagro lowered its forecast of the 2025/26 global sugar supply surplus to 100 tons, reduced Brazil's sugar production forecast, and cut India's sugar production forecast by 70 tons. Major importers like China and Indonesia have increased their purchases [8]. - **Brazilian Sugar Situation**: - Production is expected to remain high, with the 2025/26 production forecast at 45.02 million tons, slightly higher than in August [9]. - In the first half of November, the sugar - making ratio in central - southern Brazil decreased significantly. The cane crushing volume, ethanol production, and sugar production all increased compared to the same period last year [11]. - As of the first half of November in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar production in central - southern Brazil increased by 800,000 tons year - on - year [13]. - Sugar inventory decreased slightly, and exports decreased. In November, sugar and molasses exports were 3.3023 million tons, a 2.59% decrease from the same period last year. Cumulative exports from April to November decreased by 4.3% year - on - year [16]. - **Thai Sugar Situation**: - In the 2024/25 season, sugar production was 10.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons. Exports from January to September 2025 were 4.8685 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.32 million tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to have a slight increase in production, and exports are expected to increase by 1 million tons [24]. - **Indian Sugar Situation**: - In the 2025/26 season, as of November 30, cumulative cane crushing increased by 45.5% year - on - year, and sugar production increased by 49.81% year - on - year. The average national sugar production cost has risen to 41.72 rupees per kilogram [32]. - **Domestic Sugar Situation**: - Sugar mills are gradually starting production. As of November 30, 35 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, with a decrease in cane crushing and sugar production compared to the same period last year. In Yunnan, 10 sugar mills have started production, with an increase in cane crushing and sugar production compared to the same period last year [35]. - Import profits are relatively high [36]. - In October 2025, sugar imports were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 213,200 tons. From January to October, sugar imports were 3.9054 million tons, a 13.8% year - on - year increase. The import of syrup and pre - mixed powder decreased [43]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Includes data on Brazilian sugar production, exports, inventory; Indian and Thai sugar production; and domestic sugar production, imports, etc., presented in various charts and figures [45][56][62]

Core Viewpoint - Guangnong Sugar Industry (000911.SZ) plans to increase capital for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Guangxi Nantung Market Development Co., Ltd., to meet operational needs and optimize its asset-liability structure [1] Group 1: Capital Increase Details - The company will inject 20 million RMB in cash into the market company [1] - Following the capital increase, the registered capital of the market company will change from 10 million RMB to 30 million RMB [1] - The ownership structure remains unchanged, with the market company still being a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar hit a new low this week, testing the support around 5,300 yuan/ton. Spot prices are dropping rapidly, and the overall supply pressure is high. With the increase in new sugar on the market, spot pressure rises. The market supply is abundant, and sugar prices are unlikely to rise. Internationally, ICE sugar futures are digesting supply pressure, with prices fluctuating around 15 cents/pound and finding support around 14 cents/pound. Although current supply pressure is hard to resolve, there are some hidden long - term positives, and international sugar prices may maintain low - level oscillations. The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading [57][58] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Sugar Market Analysis 1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou sugar futures showed weak performance, with a weekly decline of 1.8%. ICE sugar futures oscillated at a low level, with a weekly decline of 1.97% [11] 1.2 Spot Price and Basis Trends - No summary information provided 1.3 Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan - No summary information provided 1.4 Sugar Import Situation - In October, imports were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar futures March contract price of 14.5 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil is 4,019 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost is 5,090 yuan/ton; the in - quota import cost from Thailand is 4,078 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost is 5,166 yuan/ton [23] 1.5 Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in October was about 321,800 tons, an increase of 45,900 tons compared to the same period last year [29] 1.6 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 183, a decrease of 75 compared to the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 0, and the valid forecasts were 183 [34] 1.7 Brazil's Production Progress - In the first half of November, the cumulative crushing volume was 576 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.26%, and the sugar production was 39.179 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.09% [38] 1.8 Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 51.54%, compared to 48.45% in the same period last year [43] 1.9 Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - In October, Brazil's sugar exports were 4.205 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [47] 1.10 International Main - producing Region Weather Conditions - Brazil's main producing areas have abundant rainfall, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth. India has little precipitation, which is beneficial to sugarcane crushing [53] 2. Market Outlook - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar hit a new low, spot prices are falling, and supply pressure is high. With new sugar on the market, pressure increases, and sugar prices are unlikely to rise. Internationally, ICE sugar futures are digesting supply pressure, and although current pressure is high, there are long - term positives, and prices may maintain low - level oscillations. The operation suggestion is short - term trading [57][58]

Core Viewpoint - The sugar prices in Guangxi are experiencing a downward trend due to increasing new sugar supply, leading to a shift from profit to loss for sugar factories [1][2][6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In mid-November, the sugar price in Guangxi peaked at 5725 yuan/ton due to low inventory levels, but as new sugar supply increased, prices fell below 5000 yuan/ton by December 2, averaging 5475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.86% month-on-month and 10.32% year-on-year [2]. - The overall sugar production in Guangxi for the 2024/25 season is projected at 6.465 million tons, accounting for approximately 57.92% of the national total, with a slight increase expected in the following season despite adverse weather conditions [4]. - The number of sugar factories operating in Guangxi has decreased by 22 year-on-year, impacting the supply dynamics [4]. Cost and Profitability - The theoretical sugar production cost remains high, with an average cost of 5624 yuan/ton against a selling price of 5465 yuan/ton, resulting in an average theoretical loss of 158.6 yuan/ton for sugar factories [6]. - The expected sugarcane purchase price is 510 yuan/ton, with a sugar production rate of 12.85%, indicating a challenging profitability environment for sugar producers [6]. Seasonal Trends - Historically, December has shown a high probability of price declines, and despite an increase in both supply and demand, the supply growth is anticipated to outpace demand growth, leading to a potential price drop [8]. - The expected price range for white sugar in Guangxi for December is between 5380-5550 yuan/ton, influenced by increased supply from local sugar factories and other regions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The sugar prices in Guangxi are experiencing a downward trend due to increasing new sugar supply, leading to a shift from profit to loss for sugar factories [1][2][6]. Group 1: Sugar Supply and Pricing Trends - In mid-November, sugar prices in Guangxi peaked at 5725 yuan/ton due to low inventory levels, but prices have since fallen below 5000 yuan/ton by December 2, with an average price of 5475 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3.86% decrease month-on-month and a 10.32% decrease year-on-year [2][4]. - The number of sugar factories in Guangxi has increased, contributing to a steady rise in new sugar supply, which is expected to continue in the upcoming season, leading to increased sales pressure on sugar factories [2][4]. Group 2: Production and Cost Analysis - The theoretical sugar production cost in Guangxi remains high at 5624 yuan/ton, while the average selling price is 5465 yuan/ton, resulting in an average theoretical loss of 158.6 yuan/ton for sugar factories as of December 3 [6][7]. - The expected sugar production for the 2024/25 season is 646.5 million tons, accounting for approximately 57.92% of the national total, with a slight increase in production anticipated for the 2025/26 season despite adverse weather conditions [4][6]. Group 3: Seasonal Price Fluctuations - Historically, December has shown a high probability of price declines in the sugar market, and despite an increase in both supply and demand, the anticipated supply growth is expected to outpace demand growth, leading to a potential price drop [9]. - The expected price range for white sugar in Guangxi for December is between 5380 and 5550 yuan/ton, with increased supply from sugar factories and a gradual reduction in processed sugar supply [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully implemented an automated production line for its liquid sugar project and is actively supplying products to multiple clients [2]. Group 1 - The liquid sugar project has achieved full automation in its production process [2]. - The company is currently supplying products to several customers [2]. - Future plans include providing integrated logistics and warehousing services to better meet customer needs based on feedback and market demand [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic sugar market is expected to see sugar prices fluctuate mainly. The early bearish factors in the market have been basically digested, and the pessimistic sentiment has eased. The late - opening of sugar cane in Guangxi has brought low - priced sugar sources to the market, driving down the price of Yunnan sugar. Although processed sugar and beet sugar have some impact, their prices are relatively firm, providing some support for Guangxi sugar prices [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar was 5366 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the main contract position volume was 330,181 lots, down 8,305 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 52,892 lots, up 2,501 lots; the total effective warehouse receipt forecast was 183, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,121 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan; that of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,167 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,223 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan; that of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,283 yuan/ton. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,410 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,525 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area was 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugar cane in Guangxi was 840.33 thousand hectares, up 5.24 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi was 602.29 million tons, up 26.66 million tons; the cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan was 241.88 million tons, unchanged. Brazil's total sugar export volume was 420.5 million tons, up 95.92 million tons. The import volume of sugar in the current month was 75 million tons, up 20 million tons; the cumulative import volume was 390 million tons, up 74 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar was 88.3 million tons, up 34.39 million tons; the monthly production of soft drinks was 1,096.2 million tons, down 495.5 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 8.76%, up 1.69%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 8.76%, up 1.69%. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 6.73%, up 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.85%, up 0.03% [2] Industry News - As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugar cane (33.4 million tons in the same period last year), producing 4.135 million tons of sugar (2.76 million tons in the same period last year), and the average sugar yield was 8.51%, up from 8.27% in the same period last year. ICE's most actively traded March raw sugar futures rose 0.22 cents or 1.50%, settling at 14.98 cents per pound [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing development and modernization of the sugarcane industry in Guangxi, China, emphasizing the integration of technology and high-yield varieties to enhance production efficiency and diversify product offerings [1][11]. Group 1: Sugarcane Production and Mechanization - Guangxi is the largest sugarcane planting base in China, currently in the harvesting season for sugarcane [1]. - In Laibin, the mechanization rate for sugarcane harvesting is expected to reach 73.74% for the 2024/2025 season, with a mechanical harvesting efficiency significantly higher than manual methods [5][11]. - The introduction of the "Didi Agricultural Machinery" platform allows farmers to connect with machinery services via a WeChat mini-program, improving efficiency in sugarcane harvesting [7]. Group 2: High-Yield Varieties and Standardization - The coverage rate of high-yield and high-sugar varieties in Laibin has reached over 95%, supporting increased sugarcane production capacity [9]. - A digital transformation service platform has been established in Laibin, enabling standardized production processes in sugar manufacturing, enhancing visibility and efficiency [11]. Group 3: Diversification and Value Addition - The sugarcane industry in Guangxi has evolved from traditional sugar production to a diversified model that includes deep processing and comprehensive utilization of by-products [20]. - Sugarcane by-products are being transformed into various products, including biodegradable tableware and high-performance carbon-based materials for energy storage, showcasing a circular economy approach [25][29]. - The industry has developed over 30 functional sugar products and established the largest rock sugar production base in the country, with the comprehensive output value of sugarcane by-products exceeding 5 billion yuan [29].

消息面 根据印度全国合作糖厂联合会(NFCSF)发布的数据，截至2025年11月30日，累计入榨甘蔗4860万吨，较去年同期的3340万吨增加1520万吨，增幅 45.5%；产糖413.5万吨，较去年同期的276万吨增加137.5万吨，增幅49.81%。 据外媒报道，乌克兰糖业协会表示，该国制糖厂已将2025年收获的836万吨甜菜加工成125万吨白糖。 据不完全统计，截至12月2日广西开榨糖厂超过40家，云南开榨糖厂超过10家，两个产区开榨糖厂已超过50家。 机构观点 华联期货： 行业方面，国际市场基本面未出现明显变化，北半球开榨后，市场转向关注北半球增产预期差，利多缺乏，但原糖已跌至乙醇折糖价下方，预计 短期向下空间有限。郑糖跟随原糖走势，10月食糖进口量和糖浆进口量均高于市场预期，对郑糖价格有所拖累。近期广西、云南糖厂开榨在加速 进行，不过新糖大规模上市需要等到12月中下旬，短期主要受进口冲击及陈糖清库压力。年底供强需弱，总体基本面偏空，暂无利好因素。操作 上建议适当顺势短空，郑糖2605参考压力位5400-5450元/吨。 五矿期货： 目前预估新榨季主要产糖国产量增加，全球供需关系从短缺转为过剩，直到明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the advancements in sugarcane production in Guangxi, focusing on mechanization, high-yield varieties, and the integration of technology in the industry, which collectively enhance efficiency and productivity in sugar production. Group 1: Mechanization and Efficiency - The use of mechanical harvesting significantly reduces costs and increases efficiency, with a mechanical harvester able to harvest one ton of sugarcane in about 5 minutes at a cost of approximately 100 yuan, compared to 180 yuan for manual harvesting [3][5] - Guangxi's Laibin city has achieved a comprehensive mechanization rate of 73.74% for sugarcane harvesting, the highest in the region, with expectations for further improvement in the upcoming season [3] Group 2: High-Yield Varieties - Laibin has implemented a strong focus on high-yield and high-sugar varieties, achieving over 95% coverage of such varieties, which include species like Liucheng 05136 and Yutong 00236, known for their resilience and adaptability [7][24] Group 3: Digital Transformation - The introduction of the "Didi Agricultural Machinery" platform allows farmers to connect with machinery and labor needs through a WeChat mini-program, enhancing efficiency and reducing reliance on personal networks [5] - A digital transformation service platform for the sugar industry has been established, enabling real-time monitoring and standardization of production processes across multiple sugar factories [10] Group 4: Value Chain Diversification - The sugarcane industry in Guangxi is evolving from traditional sugar production to a diversified model that includes the production of various products such as paper, biodegradable tableware, and energy storage materials, significantly increasing the economic value of sugarcane by-products [20][24] - The industry has developed over 30 functional sugar products and established the largest rock sugar production base in the country, with the by-product utilization of sugarcane bagasse reaching a comprehensive value of over 5 billion yuan [24]