1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to continue to decline in the short term, while the upside potential for silver is largely saturated. Gold is relatively weak, and silver is neutral. The price ranges are 760 - 780 yuan/gram for gold and 8800 - 9400 yuan/kilogram for silver [3]. - The core trading logic of gold in the first half of the year under the dimension of "uncertainty" has basically ended. The short - term inflation expectation, an important factor supporting the gold price, has also significantly declined. The US monthly economic data remains resilient, leading to the inevitable rebound of the US dollar and the decline of the gold price. However, there is strong capital support below the gold price after the decline [3]. - The rise of silver is mainly affected by liquidity and the recovery of macro - risk appetite. With the end of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the upside potential for silver is considered to be saturated, but it still shows a strong direction and a high - level oscillation pattern [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review - **Price Performance**: This week, London gold fell by - 0.35%, and London silver rose by 1.22%. The gold - to - silver ratio dropped from 87.5 to 86.3, the 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.96%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.4% (2 - year at 3.91%), and the US dollar index was recorded at 97.6. Among various gold and silver varieties, there were different price changes, such as Comex gold 2510 falling by - 0.51% and Comex silver 2510 falling by - 0.26% [3][4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volumes and open interests of different gold and silver futures contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai silver 2510 increased by 64,411 hands, while its open interest decreased by 28,849 hands [4]. - **Comex and ETF Position Changes**: The non - commercial net long positions of Comex gold and silver futures and options increased, and the positions of gold and silver ETFs also increased. For example, the non - commercial net long position of Comex gold futures and options increased by 41,524 hands, and the position of SPDR gold ETF increased by 13.47 tons [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of COMEX gold increased by 0.57 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio fell to 54.4%. The inventory of COMEX silver increased by 3.08 million ounces to 500.32 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 39.3%. The inventory of gold futures increased by 1401 tons, and the inventory of silver futures decreased by 23.82 tons to 1187 tons [35][37][39]. - **Domestic Spot - Futures Spread Changes**: This week, the gold spot - futures spread was - 3.71 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range. The silver spot - futures spread was - 20 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [15][17]. - **Domestic Inter - month Spread Changes**: The gold inter - month spread was 6.9 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The silver inter - month spread was 63 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [21][26]. - **Domestic - Overseas Spread Changes**: The spread of silver T + D to London silver converged to - 559, and the spread of gold T + D to London gold was 4.77 [4]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index fell by - 0.80%, and other exchange rates such as the euro against the US dollar rose by 0.99% [4]. 3.2 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spreads**: This week, the spread between London spot gold and COMEX gold主力 fell to - 2.28 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - 9.4 US dollars/ounce. The spread between London spot silver and COMEX silver主力 converged to - 0.188 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - 0.285 US dollars/ounce [9][12]. - **Domestic Spot - Futures Spreads**: The gold spot - futures spread was - 3.71 yuan/gram, and the silver spot - futures spread was - 20 yuan/gram [15][17]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The gold inter - month spread was 6.9 yuan/gram, and the silver inter - month spread was 63 yuan/gram [21][26]. - **Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Costs**: The report calculated the cross - month positive arbitrage delivery costs for gold and silver in different combinations, such as buying TD and selling Shanghai gold, buying Shanghai gold December and selling June, etc. [29][30][31][32]. - **Delivery Fee Payment Directions of Shanghai Gold Exchange**: This week, the gold delivery fee at the gold exchange was mainly paid by the long side to the short side, indicating strong delivery power. The silver delivery fee was mainly paid by the short side to the long side, indicating strong collection and delivery power [33]. - **Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The inventory of COMEX gold increased, and the registered warrant ratio decreased. The inventory of COMEX silver increased, and the registered warrant ratio increased. The inventory of gold futures increased, and the inventory of silver futures decreased [35][37][39]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions**: This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, and the non - commercial net long position of silver decreased slightly [41]. - **ETF Positions**: This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF increased by 8.59 tons, and the inventory of the silver SLV ETF increased by 512.88 tons [44][46]. - **Gold - to - Silver Ratio**: This week, the gold - to - silver ratio dropped from 87.5 to 86.1 [48]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold and Silver Lease Rates**: This week, the 1M gold lease rate was - 0.22%, and the 1M silver lease rate was 3.43% [50]. 3.3 Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [55]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: Not specifically analyzed in detail in the summary part of the report, but relevant data such as non - farm employment numbers, unemployment claims, labor force participation rate, and average working hours were presented [62][63][64][65][66]. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: Not specifically analyzed in detail in the summary part of the report [67]. - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: Not specifically analyzed in detail in the summary part of the report [71]. - **Fed Rate - cut Probability**: The report presented the Fed rate - cut probabilities in different regions and at different time points, such as a - 2.6% rate - cut probability for the US on 07/30/2025 [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the price of London gold rose by 2.86%, while London silver fell by -0.3%. The gold-silver ratio increased from 91.4 to 95.2, the 10-year TIPS fell to 2.13%, the 10-year nominal interest rate rose to 4.41% (2-year 3.96%), and the US dollar index was 98.1 [3]. - The conflict between Iran and Israel this week was the main disturbance in the precious metals market. The report maintains its view on gold, stating that as an asset with a long - term upward trend, once there is a new driver, long - term funds are more likely to re - enter the gold market and raise the bottom support [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Positions) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spreads - For gold, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to -19.25 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was -20 US dollars per ounce [8][9]. - For silver, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 widened again to -0.079 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was -0.095 US dollars per ounce [8][12]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spreads - This week, the gold spot - futures price spread was -3.5 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16]. - This week, the silver spot - futures price spread was 2 yuan per gram, also at the lower end of the historical range [18][19]. 3.1.3 Monthly Spreads - This week, the gold monthly spread was 4.22 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [22]. - This week, the silver monthly spread was 36 yuan per kilogram, at the lower end of the historical range [26]. 3.1.4 Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Costs - For gold, the total cross - month positive arbitrage delivery cost of buying TD and selling SHFE gold was 11.38 yuan per gram; the total cost of buying SHFE gold December contract and selling June contract was 15.45 yuan per gram [29][30]. - For silver, the total cross - month positive arbitrage delivery cost of buying TD and selling SHFE silver was 133.26 yuan per kilogram; the total cost of buying SHFE silver December contract and selling June contract was -95.90 yuan per kilogram [31][32]. 3.1.5 Deferred Fee Payment Directions of SGE Spot Gold and Silver - This week, the SGE gold deferred fee was mainly paid from longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power; the silver deferred fee was mainly paid from shorts to longs, indicating strong receiving power [33]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratios - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.33 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio fell to 54.3%. The COMEX silver inventory increased by 3.74 million ounces to 494.72 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.5%. The gold futures inventory increased by 330 tons, and the silver futures inventory increased by 92.1 tons to 1210 tons [35][37][39]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - Commercial Positions - This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold slightly increased, and the non - commercial net long position of silver also slightly increased [41]. 3.1.8 ETF Positions - This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 4.85 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 56.55 tons [46][48]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - silver ratio fell from 91.4 to 95.2 [50]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates - This week, the 1M gold lease rate was 0.2%, and the 1M silver lease rate was 4.8% [53]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rates - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [58]. 3.2.2 Other Macroeconomic Indicators - The report also presented data on inflation, retail sales, non - farm employment, industrial manufacturing cycles, financial conditions, economic surprise indices, inflation surprise indices, and the Fed's interest rate cut probability, but no specific core views were summarized for these aspects in the text [63][66][71][74][75].

Market Overview - On May 19, US stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 rising by 0.32%, 0.02%, and 0.09% respectively [3] - Major US tech stocks mostly increased, although the Wind US Tech Seven Index fell by 0.09%. Notable individual stock movements included Microsoft rising over 1%, while Apple and Tesla fell by over 1% and 2% respectively [5][6] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declining by 0.17%. Among Chinese stocks, Donis rose over 19% and Hesai Technology increased by over 10% [5] Precious Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures increasing by 1.41% to $3232.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rising by 0.44% to $32.495 per ounce [9] - As of May 20, gold and silver futures showed slight declines [9] Oil Prices - International oil prices saw an increase, with ICE Brent crude rising by 0.11% and NYMEX WTI crude increasing by 0.08% [11][12] US Treasury Yields - The 30-year US Treasury yield surpassed 5% during trading on May 19, influenced by Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, which also affected US stock index futures. The 10-year Treasury yield also crossed 4.5% [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold's upward drive is not obvious in the short - term, and it has support on the downside, with prices in a volatile pattern and volatility likely to continue to narrow; silver is in a range - bound pattern. Gold is rated as neutral, and silver is also rated as neutral. The price ranges are 770 - 808 yuan/gram for gold and 7900 - 8300 yuan/kilogram for silver [3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review - **Price and Price Increase**: London gold rose 2.3%, and London silver rose 0.46%. Among domestic and foreign futures and spot varieties, Comex gold 2506 rose 2.52%, London gold spot rose 2.65%, Comex silver 2506 rose 2.18%, and London silver spot rose 2.25%. Some domestic varieties declined, such as沪银2506 with a - 0.57% decline [3][4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volumes of沪银2506,沪金2506 decreased, while that of Comex gold 2506 increased. The open interests of沪银2506,沪金2506, Comex silver 2506, and Comex gold 2506 all decreased [4] - **Comex and ETF Open Interest Changes**: Comex silver futures and options non - commercial net long open interest increased by 47,819 hands, SLV silver ETF open interest increased by 5.65 tons. Comex gold futures and options non - commercial net long open interest decreased by 764 hands, and SPDR gold ETF open interest decreased by 6.32 tons [4] - **Inventory Changes**: Shanghai silver inventory increased by 3,135 kilograms, Comex silver inventory increased by 4,602,898 ounces, Shanghai gold inventory increased by 1,590 kilograms, and Comex gold inventory decreased by 2,121,392 ounces [4] - **Domestic Futures - Spot Price Difference Changes**: The silver spot - to - futures main contract price difference remained unchanged at - 18 yuan/kilogram, and the gold spot - to - futures main contract price difference increased by 2.55 yuan/gram [4] - **Domestic Inter - month Price Difference Changes**: The absolute value of the price difference between the December and June contracts of沪银 decreased by 2 yuan/kilogram, and that of沪金 increased by 1.9 yuan/gram [4] - **Domestic - Foreign Price Difference Changes**: The price difference between silver T + D and London silver increased by 29 yuan/kilogram, and the price difference between gold T + D and London gold increased by 3.48 yuan/gram [4] - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index rose 0.38%, the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CNH spot) rose 0.40%, the euro against the US dollar fell 0.46%, the US dollar against the Japanese yen rose 0.27%, and the British pound against the US dollar rose 0.27% [4] 3.2 Trading Aspects (Price, Price Difference, Inventory, Capital, and Open Interest) - **Overseas Futures - Spot Price Difference**: This week, the price difference between London spot and COMEX gold main contract fell to - 2.64 US dollars/ounce, and the price difference between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold main contract was - 2.8 US dollars/ounce. The price difference between London spot and COMEX silver main contract widened to - 0.163 US dollars/ounce, and the price difference between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver main contract was - 0.43 US dollars/ounce [8][9][12] - **Domestic Futures - Spot Price Difference**: This week, the gold futures - spot price difference was - 3.12 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot price difference was - 18 yuan/kilogram, also at the lower end of the historical range [15][18] - **Inter - month Price Difference**: This week, the gold inter - month price difference was 6.24 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver inter - month price difference was 64 yuan/kilogram, at the lower end of the historical range [22][26] - **Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost**: The total cost of buying TD and selling沪金 for cross - month positive arbitrage was 13.83 yuan/gram; the total cost of buying沪金12 months and selling 6 months was - 8.90 yuan/gram. The total cost of buying TD and selling沪银 for cross - month positive arbitrage was 151.72 yuan/kilogram; the total cost of buying沪银12 months and selling 6 months was - 87.53 yuan/kilogram [29][30][31][32] - **Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold and Silver Spot Deferred Fee Payment Direction**: This week, the gold deferred fee was mainly paid by shorts to longs, indicating strong receiving power; the silver deferred fee was mainly paid by longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power [33] - **Gold and Silver Inventory and Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: This week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 2.12 million ounces to 39.15 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 55.3%. COMEX silver inventory increased by 4.06 million ounces to 503.58 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 33.3%. Shanghai gold futures inventory increased by 1,590 tons, and silver futures inventory increased by 3.14 tons to 934 tons [35][38][40] - **CFTC Gold and Silver Non - commercial Open Interest**: This week, COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long open interest in gold declined significantly, while that in silver increased slightly [42] - **ETF Open Interest**: This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF decreased by 7.47 tons, and the inventory of the silver SLV ETF decreased by 51.04 tons [46][48] - **Gold - to - Silver Ratio**: This week, the gold - to - silver ratio rose from 100 last week to 102 [51] - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold and Silver Lease Rates**: This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was 0.2%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 4.8% [53] 3.3 Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [58] - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: Not specifically summarized in the text - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: Not specifically summarized in the text - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: Not specifically summarized in the text - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: Not specifically summarized in the text - **Fed Rate - cut Probability**: The document provides the rate - cut probabilities of different regions and time points, such as the US, Canada, Europe, Asia - Pacific, and Latin America [74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is experiencing a volatile decline with a retracement of bullish sentiment, while silver sees a recovery in risk appetite. The strength analysis shows neutrality for both gold and silver, with price ranges of 760 - 800 yuan/gram for gold and 7900 - 8300 yuan/kilogram for silver. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 103 to 99.5 this week. The long - term narrative of gold remains unchanged, but it has entered an overbought zone technically. The reversal of Trump's stance on trade and the Fed's independence has alleviated market concerns and interrupted the upward trend of gold. The first risk point of gold price decline (end of Sino - US trade friction) has slightly eased, increasing the trading difficulty of gold. It is recommended to consider using option tools for trading allocation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review - **Price and Price Changes**: This week, London gold fell by - 0.86%, and London silver rose by 3.17%. Among domestic varieties, the closing prices and weekly price changes of various gold and silver futures contracts are as follows: for example, the closing price of Shanghai silver 2506 was 8,280 yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.47%; the closing price of Shanghai gold 2506 was 787.20 yuan, with a weekly decrease of - 0.48% [3][4]. - **Trading Volume and Position Changes**: The trading volume of Shanghai silver 2506 increased by 66,534 hands compared to the previous week, and the position decreased by 31,143 hands; the trading volume of Shanghai gold 2506 increased by 321,047 hands, and the position decreased by 29,998 hands. The non - commercial net long positions of COMEX silver futures and options increased by 41,063 hands, while those of COMEX gold decreased by 21,132 hands [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.5 million ounces to 41.71 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio dropped to 49.8%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 1.2 million ounces to 497.91 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.8%. The domestic gold futures inventory decreased by 30 tons, and the silver futures inventory decreased by 13.62 tons to 923 tons [35][37][39]. - **Spread Changes**: The overseas spot - futures spreads of gold and silver, domestic spot - futures spreads, monthly spreads, and cross - month spreads all showed certain changes. For example, the London spot - COMEX gold main contract spread fell to - 11.44 US dollars/ounce, and the domestic gold spot - futures spread was - 2.27 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [9][16]. 3.2 Gold's Core Drivers - **Relationship with Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [58]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: The report presents data on US PCE, core PCE, and retail and food service sales, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [63]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: The report shows data on US non - farm employment, including new non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, and unemployment rates, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [66]. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: No specific analysis content is provided in the report. - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: No specific analysis content is provided in the report. - **Fed Rate - cut Probability**: The report provides the Fed's rate - cut probability data at different time points, showing that the market expects a high probability of rate cuts in the future [74]. 3.3 Other Indicators - **ETF Holdings**: This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF decreased by 6.02 tons, and the inventory of the silver SLV ETF decreased by 159.84 tons [46][48]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold and Silver Lease Rates**: This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was 0.2%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 4.8% [53].

当地时间4月24日，美股三大股指集体上涨，大型科技股上涨成为重要推手之一。纳斯达克中国金龙指 数迎来四连阳，热门中概股多数上涨。 COMEX黄金期货价格重拾涨势。截至北京时间4月25日5:55，COMEX黄金期货价格涨逾2%，收复3300 美元/盎司。在机构看来，短线黄金有整理需求，但中长期维持多头观点不变，美元信用收缩是长期利 多黄金的核心支撑。 美股大型科技股上涨 当地时间4月24日， 美股三大股指开盘后持续拉升 ，道指收复40000点关口，纳指、标普500指数双双涨 逾2%。Wind数据显示，截至收盘，道指涨1.23%，纳指涨2.74%，标普500指数涨2.03%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数低开高走 ，截至收盘涨0.68%，日线迎来四连阳。热门中概股多数上涨，小马智 行涨近40%。 图片来源： Wind 国际金价上涨 图片来源：Wind 行业板块及个股方面，美股大型科技股上涨。万得美国科技七巨头指数涨2.82%，英伟达以3.62%的涨 幅领涨。 | < w | 万得美国科技七巨头指数(MAGS | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 45729.08 1252.18 2.82% ...