Group 1 - The report indicates that the upcoming spring rally is likely to occur earlier than usual due to significant adjustments in November and a late Spring Festival, suggesting a favorable environment for early positioning in December [1][25][39] - Historical data shows that growth-type spring rallies account for nearly 60% of past spring market trends, driven primarily by liquidity easing and technology policy expectations [2][55] - The cyclical spring rally, while less frequent, still holds strong predictive value, with approximately 40% of past rallies characterized by inventory replenishment and inflation expectations [2][60] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that both technology and cyclical sectors can thrive simultaneously, suggesting a dual-driven approach to investment strategies [4][48] - Key sectors for investment include technology (military, media, AI applications) and cyclical industries (solar, chemicals, steel), which are expected to benefit from improving PPI and anti-involution policies [4][60] - The report highlights that the spring rally is not confined to the spring season, as it can be influenced by macroeconomic expectations, liquidity improvements, and institutional behavior [25][34] Group 3 - The report outlines that the spring rally typically features a strong focus on high beta stocks, with significant sector rotation reflecting the market's anticipation of economic trends and policy directions [49][55] - It notes that the performance of growth stocks is particularly sensitive to liquidity conditions and technology policy, making them prime candidates for investment during the spring rally [56][59] - The cyclical rally is characterized by a recovery in resource prices and manufacturing sectors, driven by inventory replenishment and improving economic conditions [60]

Core Insights - The adoption rate of artificial intelligence (AI) among U.S. enterprises has reached 17.4%, with a particularly strong willingness to adopt AI among large enterprises, as 40% of them expect to implement AI technology within the next six months, indicating a significant shift in operational models and raising concerns about employment impacts [2][3][6]. Group 1: AI Adoption Rates - The overall AI adoption rate in U.S. enterprises is 17.4%, with large enterprises showing a much higher willingness to adopt [2][6]. - 40% of large enterprises anticipate deploying AI technology within the next six months, significantly exceeding the overall industry average [6]. Group 2: Industry Distribution - Leading industries in AI adoption include information technology, professional services, education, finance, insurance, real estate and rental, healthcare, and entertainment [4][6]. - Sub-industries such as computing, publishing, and online search maintain the highest AI adoption rates, while telecommunications and finance are expected to see the most significant growth in AI adoption in the coming months [6]. Group 3: Early Adopters and Returns - Early adopters of generative AI are reporting positive investment returns and significant productivity improvements, which is encouraging more enterprises to invest in AI [8][9]. - Surveys from consulting firms and business associations indicate that early adopters have realized tangible benefits from generative AI applications [9]. Group 4: Employment Impact - The surge in AI adoption is contributing to adjustments in the job market, with October reporting the highest number of layoffs since 2003, as many companies cite cost-cutting measures and AI adoption as reasons for layoffs [10]. - The trend of technology replacing human labor may accelerate in industries with high AI adoption rates, such as information technology, professional services, and finance [10].

- The CSI 2000 Index performed well among the scale indices, with the CSI 2000 Index rising by 1.46%[5] - The ChiNext Index performed well among the sector indices, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.60%[5] - The CSI 300 Growth Index performed well among the style indices, with the CSI 300 Growth Index rising by 1.10%[5] - The communication, electronics, computer, non-bank financial, and defense military industries performed well, with returns of 4.67%, 2.51%, 1.92%, 1.89%, and 1.29% respectively[6] - The coal, petroleum and petrochemical, food and beverage, steel, and electric power utilities industries performed poorly, with returns of -1.38%, -0.80%, -0.78%, -0.51%, and -0.27% respectively[6] - The CPO, optical chip, optical communication, selected communication equipment, and base station concepts performed well, with returns of 9.28%, 5.94%, 5.68%, 4.93%, and 4.61% respectively[9] - The central enterprise coal, Guizhou state-owned assets, selected gold, phosphate chemical, and PTA concepts performed poorly, with returns of -1.98%, -1.65%, -1.55%, -1.47%, and -1.41% respectively[9] - At the close of 20251208, there were 78 stocks with daily limit-up and 8 stocks with daily limit-down[13] - The closing return of stocks that hit the daily limit-up yesterday was 5.10%, while the closing return of stocks that hit the daily limit-down yesterday was -1.87%[14] - The sealing rate was 69%, a decrease of 7% from the previous day, and the continuous board rate was 34%, an increase of 6% from the previous day[17] - As of 20251205, the balance of margin trading and securities lending was 2481.7 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 2464.1 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 17.6 billion yuan[19] - The balance of margin trading and securities lending accounted for 2.6% of the circulating market value, and the margin trading and securities lending transactions accounted for 10.3% of the market transaction amount[22] - On 20251205, the ETF with the highest premium was the Satellite ETF with a premium of 0.62%, and the ETF with the highest discount was the Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen 300 ETF with a discount of 0.72%[23] - On 20251205, the block trading transaction amount was 2.4 billion yuan, with an average discount rate of 6.47% in the past six months and a discount rate of 8.08% on that day[26] - The annualized discount rates of the main contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures on 20251208 were 4.01%, 5.14%, 10.99%, and 15.96% respectively[28] - The stocks with the most institutional research in the past week were Canxin Co., Ltd., Zhaochi Co., Ltd., Xingyuan Zhumg, Huafeng Chemical, Lianhe Micro, Xinlei Energy, Qiutian Micro, and Jushen Co., Ltd., with Canxin Co., Ltd. being researched by 63 institutions[30] - The top ten stocks with net inflows from institutional seats on 20251208 were Xue Ren Group, Ruikang Pharmaceutical, Changguang Huaxin, Hongxiang Co., Ltd., Rongke Technology, Chuling Information, Shunhao Co., Ltd., Yinbang Co., Ltd., Liyuanheng, and Rongji Software[36] - The top ten stocks with net outflows from institutional seats on 20251208 were Guangdong Hongda, Sun Cable, Lixing Co., Ltd., Dongtian Micro, Zhongneng Electric, Shandong Weida, Gaole Co., Ltd., Haixin Food, Xinjinglu, and Zhishang Technology[36] - The top ten stocks with net inflows from Northbound Trading on 20251208 were Ruikeda, Rongke Technology, Bona Film, Zhishang Technology, Shida Group, Demingli, Yinbang Co., Ltd., and Guangdong Hongda[37] - The top ten stocks with net outflows from Northbound Trading on 20251208 were Aerospace Huanyu, Changguang Huaxin, Xue Ren Group, Siwei Lekong, Aerospace Electromechanical, and Leike Defense[37]

Strategy - The technology competition under the Kondratiev wave continues to open up valuation ceilings, with a focus on "bottleneck" and future industry high ground [14][15] - The current valuation of China's science and technology innovation is still lower than that during the internet boom in the 1990s, indicating potential for further upward movement [14][18] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes seizing the high ground of technological development, focusing on key areas such as integrated circuits and advanced manufacturing [14][19] Electronics - The scaling law remains effective, with the introduction of multi-modal and agent models expected to accelerate AI computing demand [8][15] - The PCB industry is anticipated to maintain high growth due to its heavy asset nature and product structure optimization, which can lead to non-linear performance improvements for companies [8][15] Computer - New models are being launched intensively, marking a shift in AI competition towards "strong reasoning + native multi-modal" capabilities [9][15] - Significant releases include Google's Gemini 3 and DeepSeek V3.2, which enhance multi-modal understanding and practical applications [9][15] Media - Long-term optimism for the acceleration of AI product applications and commercialization, with a focus on AI agents, companionship, multi-modal applications, education, and edge AI [9][15] Humanoid Robots - The industry is transitioning from concept validation to commercialization, with companies that have growth potential in key components or specific solutions likely to benefit [10][15] - Investment opportunities are identified in the incremental component sector, with a focus on aesthetic preferences in the market [10][15] Automotive - The launch of Horizon Robotics' HSD and J6P models marks a significant step in mass production, with companies like WeRide and Pony.ai also making strides in the market [10][15] - Recommendations include focusing on luxury car opportunities with strong product pipelines and valuation elasticity, as well as autonomous driving technologies [10][15] Selected Portfolio - The December selected portfolio includes upstream production tools like Zhuoyi Information, upstream computing infrastructure such as Jingwang Electronics, and downstream applications like Alibaba [11][15]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 12 月 08 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 市场成交额重回 2 万亿 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2025 年 12 月 8 日周一，A 股市场延续上行，成交额重回 2 万亿；国债期 货市场震荡分化，长债维持弱势；商品指数下跌，双焦大幅下挫。 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：成交重回 2 万亿，创业板领涨 成交重回 2 万亿，创业板领涨。12 月 8 日 A 股核心指数集体走强，成长风格显著 占优，上证收于 3,924.08 点，上涨 0.54%；深证表现更强，收于 13,329.99 点， 上涨 1.39%；创业板指收于 3,190.27 点，上涨 2.60%，领涨各核心指数；科创 50 收于 1,350.80 点，上涨 1.86%。全市场成交额重回 2 万亿元，量能较上一交易日 显著放大 18%，显示增量资金 ...

进入12月，IPO审核出现明显提速。12月8日—12日这周，沪深北交易所将有慧谷新材、林平发展、悦龙科技、宏明电子、有研复材、原力数字、美亚科技 等7家企业迎来IPO上会大考，单周7家企业首发上会也创下了年内新高。在上述7家企业中，拟募资金额最高的是来自创业板的宏明电子，公司拟募集资金 约19.51亿元。从7家公司的基本面来看，均于2025年前三季度实现盈利，不过包括宏明电子在内，7家公司中，3家今年前三季度净利出现同比下滑。 | レ 提取数据 | | 昌 | | 田 新増指标 ▼ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 上市委会议日期 开始日期 2025-01-01 | | | 结束日期 2025-12-31 自 | | | Q 请输入查找内容 | | | | | | | 兴 | | | | | | | 序号 | 代码 二 | > | 公司名称 T | 所属行业或领域 ◆ > | 标可以 | | 1 | A06658.BJ | | 广东美亚旅游科技 ... | 商务服务业 | 北证 | | 2 | A06709.BJ | | 江苏原力数字科技 ... | ...

资料显示，上海妙妙宠科技有限公司法定代表人为段宇皓，成立于2024年，位于上海市，是一家以从事 计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业为主的企业。企业注册资本100万人民币，并已于2025年完成了天 使轮，交易金额数百万人民币。 来源：市场资讯 天眼查信息显示，上海妙妙宠科技有限公司的股东为：上海滕越璐阳科技合伙企业（有限合伙）、裴逸 飞。 12月8日，天眼查融资历程显示，上海妙妙宠科技有限公司近日获得"天使轮"融资，涉及融资金额数百 万人民币，投资机构为知名产业资本。 ...

Group 1 - Midea Group has completed its share repurchase plan, with a total amount reaching the upper limit of 10 billion yuan, repurchasing 135 million shares, accounting for 1.76% of the total share capital [1] - Mu Xi Co., Ltd. announced the results of its online issuance, with a total of 19,331 winning numbers, each allowing the subscription of 500 shares [2] - ST Yishite plans to transfer 418 million shares, representing 17.93% of the total share capital, to Hubei Jingjiang Industrial Investment Group, making it the controlling shareholder [4] Group 2 - China Merchants Heavy Industry plans to invest 258 million yuan in Shenshan Port Investment Company, acquiring a 20% stake [5] - Snowman Group's metal plate fuel cell stack project has passed final acceptance, establishing a solid technical foundation for mass production [6] - Honghua Digital Technology intends to acquire 49% of Shandong Yingkejie for 105 million yuan, making it a wholly-owned subsidiary [7] Group 3 - Tianfu Communication is planning to issue H-shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with details yet to be finalized [9] - Tianqi Lithium intends to apply for designated delivery warehouse qualifications for lithium hydroxide at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [10] - Puran Co., Ltd. plans to acquire 49% of Noah Changtian's equity, which will become a wholly-owned subsidiary [11] Group 4 - Aerospace Rainbow is establishing a weather modification technology company with Zhongtian Rocket, with a total investment of 50 million yuan [12] - Yifan Pharmaceutical's products have been included in the 2025 National Medical Insurance Directory, enhancing its market position [13] - Weidi Co., Ltd. plans to acquire controlling stakes in Jiangsu Jiuxing Precision Technology [14] Group 5 - Agricultural Bank announced a cash dividend distribution of approximately 41.823 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [20] - Cambridge Technology plans to increase capital by 100 million USD in its US subsidiary to expand production capacity [21] - Hunan Silver plans to conduct annual maintenance from December 9, 2025, to January 5, 2026 [22] Group 6 - Kemin Foods reported a 110.77% year-on-year increase in sales revenue from pig sales in November 2025 [23] - Yisheng Co., Ltd. reported a 28.43% year-on-year decrease in sales revenue from white feather broiler chicks in November 2025 [24] - New Tian Green Energy achieved a cumulative power generation of 13.3689 million MWh in the first 11 months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.04% [25] Group 7 - Ankai Bus reported a 57.71% year-on-year increase in cumulative sales in the first 11 months of 2025 [27] - Daqin Railway completed a cargo transportation volume of 37.22 million tons in November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.75% [28] - Zhongtong Bus reported a 39.53% year-on-year increase in sales volume in November 2025 [29] Group 8 - Ringxu Electronics reported a 1.97% year-on-year decrease in consolidated operating revenue for the first 11 months of 2025 [31] - Xiangpiaopiao's major shareholder plans to reduce holdings by no more than 0.1% of the company's shares [32] - Zhongzi Technology's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by no more than 3% of the company's shares [33] Group 9 - Goldwind Technology's subsidiary reduced its holdings in Jinli Permanent Magnet, expecting an investment income of approximately 215 million yuan [34] - Hailun Zhe plans to repurchase shares worth 50 million to 100 million yuan [35] - Wentai Technology's major shareholder plans to reduce holdings by no more than 3% of the company's shares [37] Group 10 - Licheng Group signed a procurement agreement with Weijing Intelligent for humanoid robot components, with an estimated contract value of approximately 75 million yuan [40] - Jieshun Technology won the underground parking lot operation management project, expected to generate over 70 million yuan in revenue [42] - Jifutong is a candidate for the China Mobile procurement project, with expected amounts of 411 million yuan and 162 million yuan [43]

Core Insights - The non-bank sector's effective timing indicator shows a drop in trading volume to 2%, historically leading to excess returns when combined with external catalysts [1][8] - Recent developments, including a reduction in investment risk factors by insurance funds and proposals to expand brokerage capital space and leverage limits, have catalyzed the non-bank sector [1][8] Historical Context - Historically, significant movements in the non-bank sector at the year-end and beginning of the year often signal the start of a volatile market [3][9] - Since 2010, in 15 instances of year-end and beginning of the year windows, 7 have seen the initiation of volatile markets coinciding with non-bank sector movements [3][9] Market Performance - Following non-bank sector movements, the overall market typically enters an upward phase, with average increases of 6.8%, 9%, and 12.8% over the next 10, 20, and 30 trading days respectively [4][10] - In the 20 trading days following non-bank sector movements, indices such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 tend to outperform, with large-cap growth and value styles showing higher average returns [5][11] Statistical Data - The historical performance data indicates that the average returns for various indices and sectors post non-bank movements are significant, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing an average return of 19.8% in certain periods [12]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall increase on December 8, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3924.08 points, up 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13329.99 points, up 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index at 3190.27 points, up 2.6% [1] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 20,517.44 billion yuan, an increase of 3,126.79 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Capital Flow - The net inflow of main funds in the A-share market was 7.34 billion yuan, with an opening net outflow of 79.7 billion yuan and a closing net outflow of 8.67 billion yuan [2] - The net inflow of main funds in the CSI 300 was 10.55 billion yuan, while the ChiNext saw a net inflow of 7.4 billion yuan, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board experienced a net outflow of 9.19 billion yuan [4] Sector Performance - Among the primary industries, the electronics sector led with a net inflow of 189.28 billion yuan, followed by the communication sector with 76.25 billion yuan, and the electric equipment sector with 30.60 billion yuan [6][7] - The top five industries with net inflows included electronics, communication, electric equipment, computer, and media, while the top five industries with net outflows included biopharmaceuticals, food and beverage, public utilities, and basic chemicals [7] Institutional Activity - The institutional buying activity was notable in several stocks, with Snowman Group (002639) showing a net institutional purchase of 181.63 million yuan, followed by Ruikang Pharmaceutical and Changguang Photonics [9][10] - Conversely, Guangdong Hongda (002683) was among the stocks with significant institutional selling [9]