生猪：如何看待政策变化及后续猪价 20250605 摘要 为应对肉类供应过剩，政府实施生猪生产调控，重点监控母猪存栏、出 栏量、肥猪体重等六项指标，并以月报形式跟踪，违规企业将面临惩罚， 旨在稳定生猪市场。 政策目标是将出栏体重控制在 125 公斤左右，预计将导致肉类供应量同 比减少 10%-14%，加上降体重因素，总体减少 8%-9%，有望推动下 半年猪肉均价接近 16 元/公斤。 成本控制优异的大型企业（成本低于 14 元/公斤）有望受益于市场均价 上涨，预计每头生猪利润可超过 200 元，即使考虑完全成本，部分企业 仍可实现 100 多元利润。 当前政策执行严格，若母猪数量稳定且产能未明显下降，监管或适度放 松；若产能接近 3,900 万头，则六项指标控制将持续。纳入国家监测的 大型企业范围可能扩大至年出栏 200 万头以上。 上半年猪价平稳，得益于 2-5 月供应量较大，其中 1-2 月供应提前释放， 导致 12 月价格超跌；3-4 月供应后移，价格坚挺；5 月供应压力大，价 格下跌。中小企业对未来预期较差，淘汰母猪意愿增加。 Q&A 当前政策对畜牧业的影响有哪些具体方面？ 近期出台的政策主要包括以下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Council has announced the fourth national agricultural census to be conducted in 2026, aiming to assess the modernization of agriculture and rural areas in China [1][2]. Group 1: Census Overview - The census will take place on December 31, 2026, with data collected for the entire year [1]. - It is a significant national survey aimed at understanding the agricultural landscape and rural conditions in the context of China's modernization efforts [1][2]. - The census will include various subjects such as rural households, agricultural production units, and local government bodies [1]. Group 2: Key Areas of Investigation - The census will investigate five main areas: 1. Agricultural production conditions, including workforce, land use, and social services [2]. 2. Food production status, covering grains, economic crops, and livestock products [2]. 3. New agricultural productivity, focusing on modern agricultural entities and technologies [2]. 4. Rural development basics, including industry growth and governance [2]. 5. Rural residents' living conditions, assessing family situations and quality of life [2]. Group 3: Methodology and Technology - The census will utilize a combination of comprehensive surveys and sampling methods to enhance efficiency and reduce the burden on local authorities [2]. - Modern technologies such as satellite remote sensing, drones, and artificial intelligence will be employed to improve data collection and analysis [2]. - The initiative aims to create a unified agricultural census data platform to facilitate the sharing and application of results [2].

夏日，行走在地处河套平原的内蒙古自治区巴彦淖尔市，田间地头一派忙碌景象。高标准农田土地平 整，农民们忙着播种玉米、葵花等农作物。在现代化养殖场内，牛羊成群、膘肥体壮。在遍及整个河套 平原的灌渠内，用于灌溉的黄河水奔腾不息。 在乌拉特后旗国际农业博览园周边，农田得到集约化利用，现代设施农业发展迅猛，上千栋果蔬大棚成 为当地农民致富的"好帮手"。"博览园内的暖棚中，火龙果植株在人工模拟的热带环境中旺盛生长。'南 果北种'的实现得益于我们采用了先进的栽培技术。"乌拉特后旗国际农业博览园副总经理张中告诉记 者，未来博览园将致力于发展现代农业，发挥示范引领作用。 "我今年种植了2800多亩玉米，全部采用先进的精量播种技术，通过北斗辅助驾驶系统的精准操控，实 现从点穴、播种、施肥到覆土覆膜等工序一气呵成，有效提升了播种效率与质量，也让增产增收有了更 好保障。"乌拉特前旗大佘太镇仁贵组种植大户杨润说。 巴彦淖尔市地处北纬40度农作物种植黄金带，拥有1300多万亩耕地，被誉为"塞外粮仓""草原上的菜篮 子"。近年来，巴彦淖尔市牢记嘱托，全面提升现代高效农牧业发展水平，用心守护河套灌区千年基 业，让"中国饭碗"里盛放更多河套粮 ...

Core Insights - The latest USDA drought report indicates that significant drought conditions are affecting major agricultural regions in the U.S., with moderate to severe drought levels reported as of June 3, 2025 [1] Grain Sector - Durum Wheat: 41% of the production area is affected by drought, a decrease of 38 percentage points from the previous week but an increase of 36 percentage points from the same time last year [3] - Spring Wheat: 19% of the production area is affected by drought, down 10 percentage points from the previous week and up 16 percentage points from last year [4] - Winter Wheat: 12% of the production area is affected by drought, down 4 percentage points from the previous week and down 4 percentage points from last year [5] - Corn: 21% of the production area is affected by drought, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 19 percentage points from last year [6] - Soybeans: 16% of the production area is affected by drought, down 1 percentage point from the previous week and up 15 percentage points from last year [7] - Barley: 24% of the production area is affected by drought, down 4 percentage points from the previous week and up 17 percentage points from last year [8] - Sorghum: 15% of the production area is affected by drought, down 7 percentage points from the previous week and down 30 percentage points from last year [9] - Rice: 2% of the production area is affected by drought, down 1 percentage point from the previous week and down 5 percentage points from last year [10] Economic Crops - Cotton: 6% of the production area is affected by drought, down 1 percentage point from the previous week and unchanged from last year [11] - Peanuts: 2% of the production area is affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week and last year [11] - Sunflowers: 8% of the production area is affected by drought, down 12 percentage points from the previous week and up 5 percentage points from last year [11] - Sugarbeets: 21% of the production area is affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week and up 21 percentage points from last year [11] - Sugarcane: 49% of the production area is affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week and down 1 percentage point from last year [11] Livestock and Feed - Hay: 19% of the production area is affected by drought, down 1 percentage point from the previous week and up 12 percentage points from last year [12] - Alfalfa Hay: 27% of the production area is affected by drought, down 3 percentage points from the previous week and up 17 percentage points from last year [12] - Cattle: 21% of the herd is located in drought-affected areas, down 2 percentage points from the previous week and up 11 percentage points from last year [12] - Sheep: 25% of the herd is located in drought-affected areas, down 1 percentage point from the previous week and up 17 percentage points from last year [12] - Milk Cows: 15% of the herd is located in drought-affected areas, down 3 percentage points from the previous week and up 10 percentage points from last year [12] Analysis and Outlook - The drought conditions are expected to significantly impact major crops like corn and soybeans, which are crucial for both domestic and global markets [15] - While cotton's economic impact is relatively minor, the drought could still affect related industries [15] - The drought's effects on livestock, particularly cattle and sheep, may lead to increased production costs in the livestock sector [15] - Other crops such as barley, sorghum, sugarbeets, and sugarcane are also experiencing drought impacts, which could disrupt global supply chains [16]

Core Insights - The fourth national agricultural census will be conducted in 2026, marking a significant step in understanding the agricultural landscape in China and supporting the construction of a strong agricultural nation [1][2] Group 1: Importance of the Census - The census aims to comprehensively assess the current state of agriculture, rural development, and farmers' living conditions, which is crucial for formulating effective agricultural policies and promoting rural revitalization [2] - It reflects the historical achievements and transformations in agricultural development since the last census in 2016 [2] Group 2: Census Subjects and Scope - The census will target various subjects, including rural households, urban agricultural operators, agricultural production units, village committees, and township governments [3] - The industry scope includes crop cultivation, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and related services [4] Group 3: Main Content of the Census - The census will investigate five key areas: agricultural production conditions, food production status, new agricultural productivity, rural development basics, and rural residents' living conditions [5] Group 4: Innovations and Changes - The census will incorporate updated content reflecting new agricultural practices and rural modernization, utilizing a combination of comprehensive and sampling surveys to enhance efficiency [6] - Modern technologies such as satellite remote sensing, drones, and artificial intelligence will be employed to improve data collection and analysis [6] Group 5: Timeline and Phases - The census will be conducted in four phases: preparation (2025-2026), on-site registration (January-May 2027), data processing and publication (June-December 2027), and data application (2028-2029) [8] Group 6: Implementation and Support - A leadership group has been established to oversee the census, ensuring collaboration among various government departments and local authorities [9] - Participation from census subjects is essential, requiring accurate and timely reporting of data [10]

Group 1 - The company sold 6.406 million pigs in May 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.42% [1] - The average selling price of pigs was 14.52 yuan per kilogram, showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.44% [1] - The total sales revenue from pig sales reached 12.258 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.93% [1] Group 2 - The company sold 1.339 million piglets and 29,000 breeding pigs during the same period [1]

农产品日报 | 2025-06-05 需求难有提振，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13490元/吨，较前交易日变动-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.15%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.21元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.19元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+720，较前交易日变动-170；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 14.50元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1010，较前交易日变动-80；四川 地区外三元生猪价格14.08元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.07元/公斤，现货基差LH09+590，较前交易日变动-50。 据农业农村部监测，6月4日"农产品批发价格200指数"为113.44，比昨天下降0.29个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为113.56，比昨天下降0.33个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.75元/公斤，比昨天上升0.8%；牛肉63.50 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.6%；羊肉59.08元/公斤，比昨天下降1.2%；鸡蛋7.70元/公斤，比昨天上升1.2%；白条鸡17.35 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.8%。 市场分析 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market continues to show a rebound trend, with significant performance in the consumer sector [4][6] - The overall market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 6503.28 billion, with a PE ratio of 11.95 and a PB ratio of 1.24 [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index has a market capitalization of 2159.63 billion, with a PE ratio of 19.92 and a PB ratio of 2.10 [3] Industry Dynamics - The global first humanoid robot, the ZhiYuan Expedition A2, has received certifications from China, the EU, and the US, marking a significant milestone in the robotics industry [27][28] - The market for 3C digital lithium battery PACK equipment in China is expected to reach nearly 1.3 billion by 2027, driven by a projected 13.9% increase in total shipments of digital lithium batteries in 2024 [30][31] - Several city commercial banks have followed suit in lowering deposit rates, which is expected to reduce financial institutions' liability costs and stabilize net interest margins [32] Company Updates - Marubi Biotechnology Co., Ltd. announced a cash dividend of 0.50 yuan per share, totaling 200.5 million yuan, based on a total share capital of 401 million shares [36][38] - Muyuan Foods has repurchased shares amounting to 2.1 billion yuan, with a total of 52.54 million shares repurchased, representing 0.96% of the total share capital [39][40] - Delong Technology plans to invest approximately 300 million yuan in a new lithium battery project, enhancing its competitiveness in the automotive parts market [41][42]

农产品日报 | 2025-06-04 消费需求转弱，猪价偏弱震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13510元/吨，较前交易日变动-95.00元/吨，幅度-0.70%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.40元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.06元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+890，较前交易日变动-25；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 14.60元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.20元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1090，较前交易日变动-105；四 川地区外三元生猪价格14.15元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09+640，较前交易日变动+95。 据农业农村部监测，6月3日"农产品批发价格200指数"为113.73，比节前下降0.42个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为113.89，比节前下降0.49个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.59元/公斤，比节前下降0.3%；牛肉63.86 元/公斤，比节前上升0.6%；羊肉59.77元/公斤，比节前上升0.8%；鸡蛋7.61元/公斤，比节前下降2.2%；白条鸡17.22 元/公斤，比节前下降2.1%。 市场分析 ...

Market Overview - On June 3, the main pig futures contract 2509 opened slightly lower, peaked at 13645 yuan/ton, and closed at 1510 yuan/ton, down 0.81% from the previous day [1] - The total open interest increased by 3497 contracts to 162323 contracts [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The national average price for external three yuan pigs on June 3 was 14.36 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] - Demand is weakening post-Duanwu Festival, with slaughterhouse orders decreasing and operating rates declining [1] - On June 3, the slaughter volume from sample enterprises was 144,300 heads, down 0.05 thousand heads from the previous day and down 0.7 thousand heads from a week ago [1] - Supply is expected to increase in June, with normal outflows from breeding farms and high weights maintained [1] Profitability and Costs - As of May 23, the average market selling price for 15kg piglets was 627 yuan/head, down 3 yuan from the previous week [1] - The average profit for self-breeding pigs was 138 yuan/head, down 31 yuan week-on-week; for purchased piglets, the profit was 93 yuan/head, down 25 yuan week-on-week [1] - The average slaughter weight as of May 23 was 129.38 kg, down 0.33 kg week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 2.91% [1] - The expected cost for self-breeding pigs was 13.09 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week; for purchased piglets, the cost was 15.06 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg week-on-week [1]