化工一季度总结及二季度展望 20250505 摘要 • 2025 年一季度，石化企业成本端显著下降，税费和操作费用控制有效， 业绩下滑幅度小于预期。中游新能化板块大炼化企业受益于产业链开工率 下降，成品油、芳烃及部分烯烃产品供需格局改善。 • 2025 年二季度，OPEC 增产策略及需求端不乐观预期或导致石化产品需 求平淡。OPEC 通过调整增产量进行压力测试，可能导致市场进一步探底， 但预计不会大幅下跌。烯烃价格预计保持坚挺，受益于关税影响和丙烷进 口困难。 • 投资机会集中在上游高股息板块（如三桶油，业绩抗跌且可能提高分红） 以及中下游存在关税修复预期的部分品种（如涤纶长丝、乙烷产品）。 • 基础化工行业春节后出现阶段性错配，一季度氟化工（制冷剂）、农药、 复合肥等行业表现良好。二季度制冷剂进入旺季，磷肥出口政策变化可能 带来业绩修复，复合肥头部企业受益于品牌渠道和量的增长。 • 食品添加剂板块一季度表现亮眼，受益于代糖需求增加和产品结构调整。 三氯蔗糖价格上涨，I3M 有望复制提价模式。宝丰能源一季度业绩创历史 新高，内蒙项目增量逐步释放。 Q&A 2025 年第一季度石化行业的整体表现如何？ 2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's tariffs on Chinese companies, suggesting that some are relocating production lines to the U.S., but the significance and implications of this trend are questioned [3][5]. Group 1: Production Line Relocation - Some Chinese companies, including low-tech manufacturers, are reportedly moving production lines to the U.S. in response to tariffs [3]. - The types of companies involved in this relocation are primarily those with low technological content, such as gift manufacturers and small electronic assembly plants [3]. - The article argues that this relocation is more about the elimination of outdated capacity rather than a significant shift in the industry [3]. Group 2: U.S. Industry Dynamics - The U.S. is shifting its export structure towards Russia and its acceptance of industrial transfers towards Southeast Asia, which does not pose a significant threat to China [5]. - Historical attempts by various U.S. administrations to bring global supply chains back to America have faced challenges, with companies like TSMC struggling to achieve profitability in U.S. operations [5][6]. - TSMC's Arizona plant has reported losses exceeding $3 billion, highlighting the difficulties of establishing manufacturing in the U.S. [6]. Group 3: Future Implications - The article suggests that while some Chinese companies may consider relocating due to pressure, the long-term viability of such moves is questionable given the current state of U.S. manufacturing capabilities [8]. - The narrative of companies relocating may serve as a "negative example" to illustrate the complexities of the trade war between China and the U.S. [8].

Investment Rating - The report recommends the industry [6] Core Insights - The overall revenue for the company in Q1 2025 reached 21.15 trillion KRW (114.21 billion RMB), marking the highest quarterly revenue in 10 quarters, driven by the inclusion of SK Innovation E&S performance [1][19] - Despite improvements in the battery business, the company faced operating losses due to declining refining profit margins and falling international oil prices [1][19] Financial Performance Summary Q1 2025 Overall Performance - The company reported an operating loss of 446 billion KRW (24.1 million RMB) in Q1 2025 [1][19] Business Segment Performance 1. **Refining Business** - Revenue: 11.92 trillion KRW (643.68 million RMB); Operating profit: 363 billion KRW (19.6 million RMB) [4][19] - Operating profit decreased by 306.1 billion KRW (16.53 million RMB) compared to the previous quarter due to global economic slowdown concerns and OPEC+ production cuts [4] 2. **Petrochemical Business** - Revenue: 2.48 trillion KRW (133.92 million RMB); Operating loss: 1.14 trillion KRW (61.7 million RMB) [5][19] - Continued operating losses due to weak demand for paraxylene (PX) and olefin products [5] 3. **Lubricants Business** - Revenue: 972.2 billion KRW (52.50 million RMB); Operating profit: 121.4 billion KRW (6.56 million RMB) [7][19] - Operating profit decreased by 18.1 billion KRW (977.4 thousand RMB) due to economic slowdown impacts [7] 4. **Exploration & Production (E&P) Business** - Revenue: 383.1 billion KRW (20.69 million RMB); Operating profit: 120.4 billion KRW (6.50 million RMB) [8][19] - Slight revenue growth, but operating profit decreased by 25.4 billion KRW (1.37 million RMB) due to declining sales in Peru [8] 5. **Battery Business** - Revenue: 1.61 trillion KRW (86.94 million RMB); Operating loss: 299.3 billion KRW (16.16 million RMB) [9][19] - Revenue growth driven by increased sales in North America, with operating profit improving by 60.1 billion KRW (3.25 million RMB) compared to the previous quarter [9] 6. **Materials Business** - Revenue: 238 billion KRW (1.29 million RMB); Operating loss: 548 billion KRW (2.96 million RMB) [10][19] - Operating profit increased by 19.3 billion KRW (1.04 million RMB) due to sales growth and reduced one-time costs [10] 7. **SK Innovation E&S** - Revenue: 3.75 trillion KRW (202.5 million RMB); Operating profit: 1.93 trillion KRW (10.43 million RMB) [11][19] - Operating profit increased by 78.9 billion KRW (4.26 million RMB) due to increased urban gas sales driven by winter heating demand [11] Q2 2025 Outlook 1. **Refining Business** - Expected gradual improvement in refining profit margins due to seasonal demand factors [12] 2. **Petrochemical Business** - Anticipated improvement in aromatics spreads due to reduced regional PX supply and new PTA facilities coming online [13] 3. **Lubricants Business** - Expected to maintain stable profitability due to strong demand for high-quality base oils [14] 4. **Exploration & Production Business** - Ongoing discussions for drilling more production wells following successful drilling operations [16] 5. **Battery Business** - Anticipated continued growth in North American sales driven by electric vehicle battery demand [17] 6. **Materials Business** - Expected significant sales growth due to increased sales to major customers and new product launches [17] 7. **SK Innovation E&S** - Plans to ensure stable and competitive LNG supply through various channels [18]

Group 1 - The overall industrial economy in the province is showing a rapid recovery, with a total industrial added value growth rate of 5.3% in the first quarter, an increase of 7.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The growth rate of industrial added value for large-scale industries reached 6.1%, exceeding the initial target by 2.6 percentage points [1] - In March, the output value of key emerging industries grew by 10.3% year-on-year, surpassing the overall industrial growth rate of 8.1% [1] Group 2 - Industrial fixed asset investment growth reached 14.4%, 2.4 percentage points higher than the national average, with manufacturing investment growth at 17.5%, exceeding the national level by 8.4 percentage points [1] - Industrial technological transformation investment growth was notably high at 57.9%, ranking fifth in the country, while manufacturing technological transformation investment growth reached 61.9% [1] - The mining industry added value growth rate was 6.3%, slightly above the national average, while the manufacturing industry growth was 6.2%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply industry growth was 5.4%, exceeding the national average by 3.5 percentage points [1] Group 3 - Among the top ten industries, the equipment industry led with an 18.9% growth rate, 8 percentage points higher than the national average, while the energy industry grew by 5.9% [2] - The coal mining and washing industry saw a significant increase in added value growth of 10.1%, while the food industry grew by 5.2%, the petrochemical industry by 2.2%, the metallurgy industry by 5.4%, and the building materials industry by a remarkable 31.5% [2] - The provincial government aims to focus on stabilizing industrial growth, transforming methods, adjusting structures, improving quality, and increasing efficiency to achieve effective qualitative and reasonable quantitative growth in the industrial economy [2]

本报记者 李哲 北京报道 受国际油价低位震荡、海外项目亏损等因素影响，恒逸石化（000703.SZ）2024年营收下滑，净利近 乎"腰斩"。 近日，恒逸石化披露2024年财报显示，其实现营收1254.63亿元，同比下滑7.85%；归母净利润2.34亿 元，同比下滑46.28%。 《中国经营报》记者注意到，恒逸石化文莱一期炼化项目全年亏损10.3亿元，成为业绩的最大"累赘"。 进入2025年，受国际油价震荡下行等因素影响，恒逸石化业绩进一步下挫。 2025年一季度财报显示，公司营收同比下滑14.18%，净利润同比下滑87.55%。 营收净利双降 截至2024年年底，恒逸石化已形成800万吨/年炼化设计产能（文莱炼化项目一期）、2150万吨/年参控 股PTA（精对苯二甲酸）产能、1285万吨/年参控股聚合产能、30万吨/年PIA（聚酰亚胺气凝胶）设计产 能及40万吨/年己内酰胺参股产能，依托"炼油—芳烃—聚酯"垂直整合优势，实现从原油加工到化纤产 品的全链条布局。 从产量数据来看，2024年，恒逸石化炼油产品产量为618.61万吨，化工产品产量为200.56万吨；控股子 公司浙江逸盛的PTA产品产量为260.96 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company did not provide specific financial data or key metrics for the first quarter of 2025, but indicated that there was significant volatility in order patterns and demand [8][29] - The management expressed concerns about the disconnect between orders and downstream demand, particularly in the automotive and aerospace sectors [8][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate) market saw a significant drop in imports into the Americas, with a 60% decrease by the end of March 2025 compared to previous months [10] - The company noted that while MDI prices in China had stabilized and recovered by 10%, the overall market conditions remained uncertain [12][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The automotive industry experienced a low single-digit percentage drop in production, with some manufacturers slowing down production in Mexico [22] - The construction materials market also showed volatility, with a disconnect between the number of homes being built and sold [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capitalizing on short-term changes and volatility while aligning costs with long-term market realities [16] - Management emphasized the need for a clear and realistic industrial policy in Europe to encourage investment [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed uncertainty about the macroeconomic environment and the petrochemical industry, indicating that many companies might need to adjust their outlooks [7][8] - The management believes that the current supply and demand issues are largely driven by uncertainty and expects these conditions to resolve in the coming months [9] Other Important Information - The company announced the closure of its Boisbury facility in Canada for spray foam, consolidating operations in Arlington, Texas [35] - The management reiterated their commitment to maintaining the dividend, citing a strong balance sheet and confidence in future cash generation [58][59] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you speak to the bullwhip effect and inventory levels? - Management acknowledged the bullwhip effect and noted that inventory levels are generally leaner than in previous years, with pronounced volume reductions in automotive and aerospace sectors [20][24] Question: What is the outlook for the spray foam business? - The spray foam business has seen a slowdown in both new home construction and remodeling, impacting demand [34] Question: How are pricing and margins in the MDI market? - Management indicated that while they are pushing for price increases, the lack of demand has made it challenging to implement these increases effectively [37][38] Question: What is the impact of planned turnarounds on EBITDA? - Management estimated a $15 million hit to EBITDA in the first half of the year due to planned turnarounds, with $5 million in Q1 and $10 million expected in Q2 [62] Question: How does the company view its debt levels? - Management expressed that while current margins are not satisfactory, they believe the balance sheet remains strong and that improvements in EBITDA will help reduce leverage [104]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company did not provide specific yearly guidance but focused on quarterly guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainties and supply chain issues [4][5] - There was a significant drop in imports of MDI into the Americas, with a 60% decrease by the end of March compared to January [8][9] - The company expects to see improvements in cash conversion cycles and inventory management throughout the year [39][102] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Performance Products and Advanced Materials divisions are not expected to be materially impacted by tariffs, although the overall market remains uncertain [11][12] - The automotive and aerospace sectors are experiencing low single-digit production drops, with significant volatility in order patterns [20][22] - The spray foam business has seen a slowdown in both new home construction and remodeling due to higher interest rates [32][33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The North American MDI market is experiencing a shift due to tariffs, with domestic production expected to benefit from reduced imports [9][10] - European markets are struggling with unclear industrial policies, impacting investment and operational decisions [13][91] - The overall construction market in North America is seeing a decline, particularly in residential construction, which is attributed to changing buying patterns [103] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capitalizing on short-term market changes while aligning costs with long-term market realities [14] - There is an ongoing assessment of the asset footprint to explore opportunities for growth and shareholder value creation [13][30] - The company is committed to maintaining its dividend despite current economic challenges, emphasizing a strong balance sheet and cash generation capabilities [57][58] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed uncertainty about the macroeconomic environment and its impact on the petrochemical industry, indicating a potential recovery in the coming months [5][6] - There is a belief that the current supply and demand issues are largely temporary and will resolve as trade deals are finalized [7][10] - The company remains optimistic about future demand in sectors like aerospace and construction, despite current volatility [76][71] Other Important Information - The company is undergoing several planned turnarounds, which are expected to impact EBITDA in the short term [60][64] - There is a focus on managing working capital effectively, with expectations for improvements in cash flow management [39][102] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you speak to the bullwhip effect and inventory levels? - Management acknowledged the bullwhip effect and noted that inventory levels are generally leaner than in previous years, with pronounced volume reductions in automotive and aerospace sectors [16][20] Question: How do you view growth potential in a protectionist environment? - Management believes that the majority of profits come from domestically produced products and does not foresee a need to change the asset footprint significantly [30][31] Question: What is the impact of recent disruptions on EBITDA? - Management indicated a $15 million hit to EBITDA in the first half, with specific impacts from planned turnarounds and unplanned outages [60][62] Question: How are MDI margins expected to change in Q2? - Management expects MDI margins to improve if pricing can be maintained or increased, despite current low demand [67][68] Question: What is the outlook for the dividend? - Management expressed confidence in maintaining the dividend, citing strong cash generation and a solid balance sheet [57][58] Question: How is the company managing its debt levels? - Management is focused on improving margins and believes the current debt levels are manageable, with a strong liquidity position [101][102]

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研究报告称，截至4月30日上午，A股上市公司2024年年报和2025年 一季报业绩基本披露完毕(披露率99.8%)。受政策效果持续显现以及科技创新趋势驱动，整体A股盈利增 速转正。大类行业中信息技术、消费服务增速相对领先，TMT、资源品和中游制造业边际改善。推荐 关注业绩增速相对较高、自由现金流边际改善的领域。 招商证券主要观点如下： 利润端：一季度上市公司业绩边际改善。根据一致可比口径和整体法测算，A股2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1 单季度净利润增速依次为3.7%/-15.7%/3.2%，非金融石油石化2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1单季度净利润增速 为-10.5%/-50.2%/4.5%。 收入端：全部A股单季度收入增速较24Q4放缓，但仍高于24Q3，延续改善。全部A股 2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1单季度收入增速依次为-2.0%/1.4%/-0.3%，非金融石油石化板块 2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1单季度收入增速依次为-2.9%/1.2%/0.5%。海外营收增幅扩大，海外营收占收入 的比例持续提升。 25年一季度A股盈利回暖主要受 ...

Economic Performance - The GDP of Daya Bay Development Zone reached 25.41 billion yuan in Q1, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [2] - The industrial added value of designated large-scale enterprises grew by 11.5% [2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 3.51 billion yuan, also reflecting a growth of 6.4% [2] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value growth was driven by several projects, including ExxonMobil Phase I and Hongqiang Chemical, with a total of 7 projects commencing production as scheduled [2] - The petrochemical industry saw an added value increase of 14%, while the automotive industry grew by 14.2%, and the electronic information industry increased by 6.7% [2] - The contribution of these industries to the industrial added value was 59.8%, 24.2%, and 9.3% respectively [2] Investment and Projects - A total of 48 key provincial and municipal construction projects achieved an investment of 9.43 billion yuan, completing 31.4% of the annual investment plan, exceeding the scheduled progress by 6.4 percentage points [2] - In Q1, 37 new projects were added to the inventory, including 18 industrial projects, with a cumulative investment of 1.22 billion yuan, accounting for 10% of the total fixed asset investment [2] Consumer Market - The retail sales of consumer goods above a certain threshold reached 1.53 billion yuan, growing by 11.9% [3] - Special actions to boost consumption, such as purchase subsidies and trade-in programs, significantly increased the retail sales growth of automobiles and home appliances by 517.7% and 63.8% respectively [3] - The tourism sector also showed improvement, with a total of 1.506 million visitors and a tourism revenue of 840 million yuan, marking growths of 7.9% and 13.4% respectively [3]

Group 1 - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ) reported its Q1 2025 results on April 30, 2025, with 18 institutional investors disclosing holdings of A-shares totaling 6.793 billion shares, representing 67.08% of the total share capital [1] - The top ten institutional investors include Zhejiang Rongsheng Holding Group Co., Aramco Overseas Company B.V., and others, with their combined holding ratio at 67.07%, a decrease of 0.75 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - In the public fund sector, two funds increased their holdings compared to the previous period, while six funds reduced their holdings, indicating a slight decline in the proportion of reduced holdings [2] - One new public fund was disclosed during this period, namely Guofu CSI 300 Index Enhanced A, while 292 public funds were not disclosed again, including several major ETFs [2] - Regarding foreign investment, one foreign fund, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, increased its holdings slightly compared to the previous period [2]