Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a new tariff policy starting August 18, imposing a 50% tariff on 407 products, primarily affecting steel and aluminum imports, indicating a more targeted approach to tariffs under the Trump administration [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Trade - The U.S. imports approximately $147.3 billion worth of steel and aluminum products annually, with a significant trade imbalance as it primarily imports without exporting [4]. - The new tariffs will affect various manufacturing sectors, leading to increased prices for products ranging from automotive parts to household appliances [5]. - Countries like Canada, Mexico, and Brazil, which previously enjoyed tariff exemptions, are expected to face significant pressure due to the new 50% tariffs [5]. Group 2: Global Trade Dynamics - The new tariffs will disrupt trade for countries that previously benefited from exemptions, particularly affecting Vietnam, which has relied on tariff-free exports to the U.S. [4]. - The European Union, South Korea, and Japan, as traditional allies of the U.S., will also be significantly impacted, with a substantial portion of their steel and aluminum exports directed to the U.S. [5]. - The aggressive tariff strategy may lead to a shift in global economic dynamics, prompting countries to accelerate the development of alternative economic partnerships and reduce reliance on the U.S. market [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates in September, which was in line with expectations and neutral. In the short term, the positive news has been exhausted, and in the long term, a new interest - rate cut cycle has begun. Attention should be paid to subsequent macro - data guidance [6]. - Before the holiday, with the Fed's September FOMC meeting outcome in line with expectations and neutral, the short - term macro positive news has landed. The long - position funds in the market have left, and the market has returned to range - bound trading. It is expected that the price will fluctuate between 20,600 and 21,000. It is recommended to go long on dips and bet on the peak - season expectations [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Alumina - Industry Fundamentals 3.1.1 Supply - In August 2025, the total alumina production capacity in China was 11,462 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.19% and a month - on - month increase of 160 million tons. The in - production capacity was 9,505 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.32% and a month - on - month increase of 40 million tons [11]. - In August 2025, China's alumina output was 792.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% and a month - on - month increase of 36 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 6,052.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [14]. - In August 2025, China's alumina开工率 was 82.93, slightly lower than the same period last year and a month - on - month decline of 0.82%. The smelting profit declined slightly compared with the end of July. The in - production capacity continued to recover, but the开工 rate declined slightly month - on - month [17]. - In August 2025, China's alumina net exports were 8.56 million tons, showing a net - export pattern for 17 consecutive months, with a slight month - on - month decline. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative alumina net exports were 126.16 million tons, a significant year - on - year increase [21]. 3.1.2 Demand - In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 3,014 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [24]. 3.1.3 Cost - The prices of domestic and foreign bauxite remained unchanged week - on - week. The CIF average price of Guinea bauxite was reported at $74.5 per ton, and that of Australian bauxite was reported at $70 per ton, both unchanged from last week [27]. - The latest price of caustic soda was 3,750 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan per ton, or 1.35% [30]. 3.1.4 Profit - The current full production cost of alumina was 2,854.3 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.9 yuan per ton. The smelting profit was 196.7 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decline of 72.6 yuan per ton [33]. - The alumina import profit was 184 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 126 yuan per ton [36]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of September 18, the port inventory of alumina was 3 million tons, a week - on - week decline of 0.2 million tons [39]. 3.1.6 Supply - Demand Balance - Since January 2025, the domestic alumina supply has returned to an oversupply pattern. Considering new production capacity, it is expected to remain oversupplied in the long run. In August, the oversupply volume increased slightly month - on - month [42]. 3.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, China's total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52% and unchanged month - on - month. The in - production capacity was 4,437.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.99% and a month - on - month increase of 15 million tons. The capacity utilization rate was 98.61, a slight month - on - month increase [45]. - In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 3,014 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [48]. - In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum开工率 was 98.11, a year - on - year increase of 1.46% and a month - on - month increase of 0.33%, at a historically high level with limited upside space [51]. - In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum net imports were 19.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.33 million tons and a month - on - month decrease of 1.49 million tons. The import channel has gradually opened in recent years [56]. - On September 18, 2025, the average price of scrap aluminum was 20,930 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decline of 60 yuan per ton. The refined - scrap spread was 950 yuan per ton, a week - on - week convergence of 50 yuan per ton [58]. - In August 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports were 17.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.3% and a month - on - month increase of 1.21 million tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative scrap aluminum imports were 134.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.26%. The current import volume is at a relatively high level compared to historical data, but may decline after August due to tariff policies [61]. 3.2.2 Demand - In August 2025, China's aluminum product output was 554.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2% and a month - on - month increase of 6.45 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 4,378.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. A seasonal rebound is expected later [64]. - In August 2025, China's aluminum alloy output was 163.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% and a month - on - month increase of 9.9 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 1,232.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3% [67]. 3.2.3 Cost - The spot prices of domestic and foreign alumina continued to decline week - on - week [70]. - The price of pre - baked anodes remained unchanged week - on - week at 5,627.5 yuan per ton [73]. - The prices of dry - process aluminum fluoride and cryolite remained unchanged week - on - week, at 9,580 yuan per ton and 8,390 yuan per ton respectively [76]. 3.2.4 Profit - The current electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was 16,575 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan per ton. The overall profit was 4,385 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 120 yuan per ton [79]. - The current electrolytic aluminum import loss was 1,644 yuan per ton, a week - on - week significant widening of 265 yuan per ton [82]. 3.2.5 Inventory - As of September 18, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in mainstream consumption areas was 64 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.6 million tons and an increase of 0.2 million tons during the week. The overall social inventory level was still at a relatively low level compared to historical data [85]. - In August 2025, the monthly electrolytic aluminum spot inventory was 62.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19 million tons and a month - on - month increase of 7.7 million tons, at a relatively low historical level [88]. - As of September 18, the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods was 13.02 million tons, a week - on - week decline of 0.01 million tons and a decline of 0.54 million tons during the week. The current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to historical data [91]. 3.2.6 Basis - The spot price of aluminum in East China was between 20,720 and 20,920 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decline of 210 yuan per ton. The spot discount converged, and downstream buyers were still somewhat resistant to high prices [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both domestic and overseas alumina supplies are abundant, especially the overseas prices have accelerated their decline in the past week. The theoretical import window has slightly opened. If it persists, increased imports in the next two months may exacerbate the domestic oversupply situation. The consumption side remains relatively rigid, and the rising warehouse receipt inventory continues to exert pressure. Alumina is expected to remain weak [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Category | 2025/9/12 | 2025/9/19 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2914 | 2953 | 39 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3099 | 3061 | -38 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 224 | 133 | -91 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 333 | 323 | -10 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | 123.59 | 175.36 | 51.8 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse | 138692 | 150393 | 11701 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite in Shanxi (6.0 ≤ Al/Si < 7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Henan (6.0 ≤ Al/Si < 7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guangxi (6.5 ≤ Al/Si < 7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guizhou (6.5 ≤ Al/Si < 7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 75 | 74 | -1 | US dollars/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract rose 1.34% last week, closing at 2953 Yuan/ton. The national weighted average price in the spot market was reported at 3099 Yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of -67 Yuan/ton compared to the previous week [4]. - In the bauxite market, the domestic ore market was stable. The supply shortage in the north was slightly aggravated by rainy weather, while the supply in the south was relatively stable. The import market continued to monitor the impact of Guinea's referendum results on ore policies, and the market trading was stable for the time being [4]. - On the supply side, alumina supply increased slightly. A roasting furnace of an alumina enterprise in Guangxi that was under maintenance has resumed normal production this week, resulting in a slight increase in alumina supply compared to the previous period. As of September 18, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.36% [4]. - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Shandong continued to transfer their production capacity to Yunnan. Overall, the total operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained stable compared to the previous week, and there was no significant change in alumina demand [4]. - In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 85,000 tons last Friday to 150,000 tons, while the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Last week, the bauxite price was stable, and the trading atmosphere was calm. The alumina price gradually declined, and there was a strong wait - and - see sentiment in ore procurement. On the supply side, some previously maintained production capacities in Henan and Guizhou resumed production last week, so the operating capacity of alumina slightly increased to 83.36%. Overseas alumina supply is abundant, and the FPB price of imported alumina has been declining continuously during the week. On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises mainly rely on long - term contracts for rigid demand tender procurement, with stable demand and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The warehouse receipt inventory continued to increase by 8.5 tons during the week to 150,000 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [2][5][6]. 3.4 Industry News Recently, Aluminium Bahrain and Hydro officially renewed their alumina supply agreement. This renewal not only further consolidates their long - standing strategic partnership but also provides a stable supply guarantee of high - quality alumina for Aluminium Bahrain's production and operation. In the context of global aluminum industry supply chain fluctuations, this cooperation has attracted much attention [7] 3.5 Related Charts The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina cost - profit, bauxite prices, caustic soda prices, power coal prices, and alumina exchange inventory [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][22]

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated significant growth in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, driven by increased production and favorable pricing dynamics in the aluminum market [4][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 29.078 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.98% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.768 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.88% - The company proposed a cash dividend of 3.20 yuan per 10 shares, which accounts for approximately 40.10% of the net profit for the first half of 2025, resulting in a current dividend yield of 3.78% based on market capitalization as of September 19, 2025 [4]. Production and Pricing Dynamics - The growth in the company's performance is primarily attributed to an increase in both the volume and price of its products, with aluminum production reaching 1.6132 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.59% - The average price of aluminum (A00) in the first half of 2025 was 20,317.4 yuan per ton, up by 2.6% year-on-year - The decline in alumina prices, which fell to 3,170 yuan per ton (down 44.7% from the beginning of the year), has also positively impacted the company's profitability [5]. Industry Demand and Trends - The demand for aluminum is expected to continue growing, with projections indicating a total domestic aluminum consumption of 54.3549 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.46% - Excluding export products, domestic aluminum consumption is anticipated to grow by 3.06% year-on-year, driven by sectors such as new energy vehicles, power transmission lines, and air conditioning [6]. Resource Expansion and Project Development - The company is actively expanding its resource base, successfully acquiring exploration rights for the Zhaotong aluminum ore and advancing exploration and mining rights in other regions - New projects, such as the 50,000-ton aluminum resource comprehensive utilization project and the 30,000-ton aluminum alloy casting production line, have been successfully launched [7]. Carbon Market Integration - The aluminum smelting industry is on the verge of being integrated into the national carbon market, as indicated by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment's recent solicitation for public opinion on greenhouse gas emission accounting and reporting guidelines - The carbon emissions from aluminum production using thermal power are significantly higher than those using hydropower, which may lead to increased costs for thermal power-based aluminum production and encourage energy-saving measures within the industry [9].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that southbound capital recorded a net inflow of 36.851 billion HKD from September 15 to 19, marking a 39.41% decrease week-on-week, while maintaining a streak of 18 consecutive weeks of net inflows [1] - Among the top ten active stocks, a total of 22 stocks were listed last week, with Alibaba-W leading in total trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Connect, reaching 69.847 billion HKD [1] - Other notable stocks with significant trading volumes included SMIC, Meituan-W, Tencent Holdings, and Xiaomi Group-W, each exceeding 20 billion HKD in trading volume [1] Group 2 - In terms of changes in shareholding, 11 stocks experienced a more than 100% increase in holdings from southbound capital last week, with Baize Medical leading at a remarkable 2252.16% increase [1] - Other companies such as Nanshan Aluminum (600219), Hushang Ayi, Brainstorming-B, and Jinjing New Energy also saw their holdings increase by over 500% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year revenue growth of 17.98% in the first half of 2025, reaching 29.078 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 9.88%, amounting to 2.768 billion yuan [1] - The mid-term dividend payout ratio is set at approximately 40.10%, with a cash dividend of 3.20 yuan per 10 shares [1] - The growth in performance is attributed to an increase in both volume and price of aluminum products, with production rising by 15.59% to 1.6132 million tons and an average price increase of 2.6% to 20,317.4 yuan per ton [1] - The decline in alumina prices, which fell by 44.7% to 3,170 yuan per ton, has also positively impacted the company's performance [1] - The domestic aluminum consumption is expected to grow by 1.46% in 2025, with significant contributions from sectors like new energy vehicles and air conditioning [2] - The company is actively expanding its resource acquisition and project development, including successful bids for exploration rights and the commissioning of new production lines [2] - The inclusion of electrolytic aluminum in the national carbon market is anticipated to create cost pressures for coal-fired aluminum production, potentially benefiting companies utilizing hydropower [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 29.078 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.768 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with respective growth rates of 17.98% and 9.88% [1] - The projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 6.188 billion yuan and 6.919 billion yuan, with a new forecast for 2027 at 7.590 billion yuan [3][10] Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts a PE ratio of 11 for 2025, decreasing to 9 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation [3][12] - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to improve to 15.2% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 9.4% [12] Market Outlook - The domestic aluminum consumption is projected to reach 54.3549 million tons in 2025, with a growth rate of 3.06% when excluding exports [2] - The report highlights the resilience of aluminum prices despite potential market fluctuations, driven by ongoing demand in key sectors [2]

Core Insights - Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) has selected banks to prepare for a potential initial public offering (IPO), which could become one of the largest listings in the Middle East [1] - The company is in discussions with Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Emirates NBD Capital, and First Abu Dhabi Bank to lead the IPO transaction [1] - EGA faces multiple challenges, including the impact of U.S. tariffs on aluminum products [1] Company Strategy - To mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, EGA completed its first acquisition in the U.S. last year to secure duty-free aluminum supply [1] - The company plans to invest $4 billion in building a factory in Oklahoma [1] Market Context - The Middle East has become a hotspot for global IPOs, with several large listings in recent years [1] - Notable IPOs include Saudi Aramco raising $29.4 billion in 2019, Dubai Electricity and Water Authority raising $6.1 billion in 2022, and Talabat and OQ raising approximately $2 billion each through stock issuance last year [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was in line with expectations. In the medium term, the logic of continuous liquidity easing remains, but after the short - term bullish factors are realized, risk assets may experience a limited - amplitude correction [10]. - The main theme of the economy is still stable growth. China will implement a series of policies to expand service consumption [11][12]. - The supply of alumina is expected to remain in an oversupply situation, and the spot price is expected to continue to adjust weakly in the short term [22][25]. - In August, the output of primary aluminum changed little, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in September [26][27]. - The real - estate market is still under pressure, but the new policies in first - tier cities have provided some support to the market [33][34]. - The production and sales of automobiles, especially new - energy vehicles, showed a good growth trend in August [36][37]. - The inventories of domestic and foreign exchanges both increased, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate [39][42][43]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 01 Report Summary - The Fed's interest - rate cut was in line with expectations, with a neutral - to - hawkish attitude. Medium - term liquidity is expected to be loose, and short - term risk assets may correct slightly [10]. - China will implement policies to expand service consumption, including selecting pilot cities and promoting the application of AI [12]. - The supply of alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weak. The output of primary aluminum changed little in August, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in September [25][27]. - The real - estate market is under pressure, but first - tier city policies have provided some support. The automobile market, especially new - energy vehicles, showed good growth [34][37]. 02 Multi - and Short - Focus - **Bullish factors**: The enterprise's production capacity utilization rate continues to increase, and the social inventory remains at a low level [7]. - **Bearish factors**: The price of aluminum oxide continues to decline, and the market shows a weak trend [7]. 03 Data Analysis - **Aluminum ore**: From January to July 2025, the domestic aluminum ore production increased. The import of bauxite from Guinea remained stable, but attention should be paid to the impact of the referendum [16][21]. - **Alumina**: In August 2025, the output of alumina was at a high level, and the supply - surplus situation remained unchanged. The spot price is expected to adjust weakly [25]. - **Primary aluminum**: In August 2025, the output of primary aluminum was 3.8 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. The operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in September [27]. - **Downstream processing**: The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly, but high aluminum prices inhibited procurement [30]. - **Real - estate**: In August, the real - estate sales, investment, new - start, and completion areas all declined year - on - year. First - tier cities introduced policies, and the new - house transaction area in 38 cities increased year - on - year in early September [34]. - **Automobile**: In August, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [37]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of LME and SHFE aluminum increased. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate, and the spot premium decreased [39][43][45]. - **Recycled aluminum**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly in August, and the operating rate increased slightly last week. The inventory of aluminum alloy increased [48][51][59]. - **Aluminum alloy imports and exports**: In July 2025, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy reached a four - year low, and the export volume increased year - on - year [54]. 04后市研判 - For Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to the support around 20,600 and wait for the verification of the peak season of domestic downstream demand [62]. - The price of aluminum alloy still fluctuates with the price of aluminum, and it is recommended to be bullish on dips [60].

（编辑 任世碧） 证券日报网讯 9月19日晚间，焦作万方发布公告称，公司拟以发行股份的方式购买杭州锦江集团有限公 司等交易对方持有的开曼铝业（三门峡）有限公司99.4375%股权（简称"本次交易"）。公司于2025年9 月18日收到深圳证券交易所出具的《关于受理焦作万方铝业股份有限公司发行股份购买资产申请文件的 通知》（深证上审〔2025〕169号）。深交所依照相关规定对公司报送的本次交易申请文件进行了核 对，认为申请文件齐备，决定予以受理。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum at low prices with a light position, and conduct oscillatory trading on the main contract of alumina with a light position [5]. - The fundamentals of alumina are currently in a state of oversupply with a slight accumulation of inventory [6]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and slightly improved demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on the main contract of cast aluminum at low prices with a light position [8]. - Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [75]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Week - to - week Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of raw material alumina is sufficient, and the smelting profit remains at a good level. The demand for downstream aluminum processing has increased due to the traditional consumption season and pre - holiday stockpiling [5]. - **Alumina**: The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments continues, and the supply of domestic bauxite is expected to be tight. However, the overall supply is still sufficient, and the demand is slightly increased but less than the supply growth, with a slight accumulation of inventory [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of raw material scrap aluminum is tight, limiting production. The pre - holiday stockpiling and the decline in cast aluminum quotes have slightly improved downstream demand, but consumption is still weak, and inventory has slightly increased [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: As of September 19, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 20,780 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from September 12; the closing price of LME Aluminum on September 18 was 2,705 US dollars/ton, up 0.97% from September 12. The alumina futures price was 2,915 yuan/ton, up 1.39% from September 12; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 20,355 yuan/ton, down 1.4% from September 12 [11][15]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of September 19, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.68, down 0.16 from September 12. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,250 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from September 12; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 59,115 yuan/ton, down 825 yuan/ton from September 12 [12][23]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of September 19, 2025, the position of Shanghai Aluminum was 525,078 lots, down 14.07% from September 12; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 1,255 lots from September 12 [18]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 19, 2025, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingots was 20,840 yuan/ton, down 1% from September 12, with a spot discount of 20 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week. The average spot price of alumina in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang decreased, and the national average price of cast aluminum alloy decreased [26][31]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of September 18, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 5.9%, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) inventory increased by 3.56%, and the domestic social inventory increased by 4.21%. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 0.7%, and the LME registered warehouse receipts increased by 7.91% [36]. - **Bauxite**: The total import volume of bauxite increased year - on - year, and the port inventory slightly increased. In July 2025, the monthly import volume increased by 10.75% month - on - month and 34.22% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative import volume increased by 33.65% year - on - year [39]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The quote of scrap aluminum decreased, and imports and exports increased. In July 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap increased by 18.7% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 50.9% year - on - year [45]. - **Alumina**: The production, imports, and exports of alumina increased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production increased by 7.5% year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume increased by 78.23% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 38.3% year - on - year [48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import volume increased year - on - year, the production in August decreased slightly year - on - year, and the cumulative production from January to August increased year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume increased by 91.19% year - on - year. In August 2025, the production decreased by 0.5% year - on - year [51][55]. - **Aluminum Products**: The total production of aluminum products decreased year - on - year, imports increased year - on - year, and exports decreased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production decreased by 4.2% year - on - year, the import volume increased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the export volume decreased by 10.2% year - on - year [59]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The production of cast aluminum alloy increased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production increased by 11.77% year - on - year [62]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The total production of aluminum alloy increased, imports decreased, and exports increased. In August 2025, the production increased by 15.2% year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume decreased by 28.39% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 38.3% year - on - year [65]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market declined slightly. In August 2025, the real estate development climate index decreased by 0.28 from last month. From January to August 2024, the new housing start - up area decreased by 19.54% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 18.94% year - on - year [68]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: Infrastructure investment showed a positive trend, and automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. From January to August 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 5.42% year - on - year. In August 2025, automobile sales increased by 16.44% year - on - year, and production increased by 12.96% year - on - year [71]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [75].