Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 9.1 to 9.2 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.0% to 35.4%, with net profit projected at 1.14 to 1.16 billion yuan, an increase of 41.9% to 44.4% [1][3] - The strong performance is attributed to the successful multi-brand and multi-category strategy, with notable growth in the skincare brand Han Shu and the children's skincare brand Newpage [2][3] - The company is optimizing its channel structure and diversifying its product offerings, leading to a healthier sales channel for Han Shu and significant growth in Newpage's customer demographics [2][3] Financial Projections - The projected revenue and net profit for 2025 are 9.15 billion yuan and 1.16 billion yuan respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to be 2.91 yuan [3][10] - The company anticipates continued growth with net profits projected at 1.45 billion yuan and 1.82 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.65 yuan and 4.57 yuan [3][10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 18, 15, and 12 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][10] Brand Performance - Han Shu's sales on platforms like Taobao and Douyin have increased by 26% and 13% respectively, while Newpage's sales have surged by 82% and 166% on the same platforms [2] - The company is expanding its product categories, with a focus on men's skincare, makeup, body care, and hair care, while Newpage is broadening its target age group to 6-18 years [2][3]

新消费 IPO 获支持，美护板块有望受益 [Table_Industry] 化妆品 ——美护行业跟踪报告 | | | | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | 杨柳(分析师) | 021-38038323 | yangliu3@gtht.com | S0880521120001 | | 闫清徽(分析师) | 021-38031651 | yanqinghui@gtht.com | S0880522120004 | 本报告导读： 新型消费、服务业企业上市获支持，美护作为新消费代表行业有望受益，建议自下 而上优选产品及品牌势能较强，以及产品及渠道变化下具备修复弹性的标的。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 化妆品《美护修复，关注高成长与边际改善》 2026.02.08 化妆品《GEO 营销变革，代运营及品牌商迎机 遇》2026.01.15 化妆品《GEO 兴起，代运营商有望受益》 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - NMN (β-Nicotinamide Mononucleotide) is gaining attention in the global health industry for its potential anti-aging, DNA repair, and metabolic regulation benefits, with significant advancements in regulatory approval and market potential expected by 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: NMN Definition and Function - NMN is a direct precursor to NAD+ (Nicotinamide Adenine Dinucleotide), crucial for delaying aging and enhancing physiological functions [3][4]. - Supplementing NMN can rapidly increase NAD+ levels in the body, playing a vital role in anti-aging, cardiovascular health, metabolism, and cognitive function [4][6]. Group 2: NMN Industry Development - The NMN industry has evolved from scientific research to commercialization, with significant milestones achieved in various countries, including Japan, the U.S., and Australia, which have recognized NMN's legal status [1][15]. - China is currently the largest producer of NMN raw materials, with key companies building competitive barriers through technological innovation and industry chain layout [2][32]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The global regulatory landscape for NMN is shifting from strict restrictions to cautious openness, with China making strides in legalizing NMN for cosmetic and health food applications [17][18]. - As of April 2025, NMN has been included in China's health food approval list, indicating a positive trend towards regulatory acceptance [17][18]. Group 4: Market Demand - The aging population in China is expected to drive the "silver economy," with the elderly population projected to grow from 320 million to 390 million between 2025 and 2030, creating a substantial market for anti-aging products [19]. - Younger generations, particularly those born in the 1990s, are increasingly aware of anti-aging needs, further boosting market demand for NMN products [19]. Group 5: Technological Innovations - Advances in NMN synthesis methods, particularly the full enzyme method, have significantly improved production efficiency and reduced costs, driving industry upgrades [21][22]. - Innovations in delivery technologies are enhancing the bioavailability and user experience of NMN products, ensuring effective absorption [22]. Group 6: Application Areas - NMN is primarily used in health supplements and cosmetics, with the health supplement market accounting for nearly 90% of its applications [24][28]. - Future applications are expected to expand into pet nutrition, medical health, and agricultural technology, opening new growth avenues [24][28]. Group 7: Market Size and Growth - The NMN market in China is anticipated to exceed 3 billion yuan by 2025, driven by increasing regulatory acceptance and research breakthroughs in various application areas [28][32]. Group 8: Sales Channels - NMN products are primarily sold through cross-border e-commerce and private channels, with cross-border e-commerce accounting for 60%-70% of market share [35]. Group 9: Certification and Standards - The "blue hat" certification for health foods in China represents the highest standard for NMN products, indicating safety and compliance [37]. Group 10: Challenges and Opportunities - The NMN industry faces challenges such as exaggerated claims, lack of awareness, and technological iterations, necessitating a focus on compliance and innovation to unlock market potential [61][63].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the discontinuation of the "Runxiquan" brand by Huaxi Biological, which has caused significant disappointment among consumers who valued its high-quality products [3][4][9]. Group 1: Product Discontinuation - Huaxi Biological has announced the complete cessation of the "Runxiquan" brand due to internal business adjustments [3]. - The closure of the flagship store on a major e-commerce platform and the withdrawal of products from other platforms have been reported [4]. - Consumers express their disappointment as many valued the brand's effective products [5][9]. Group 2: Promotional Offers - The article highlights promotional offers for remaining stock, including a special price of 59.9 yuan for a box of "Runxiquan" small silver shield essence, which includes 30 vials [10][28]. - A special Women's Day promotion is mentioned, offering a package deal for 99.9 yuan that includes additional products [29]. - The article emphasizes the limited availability of these promotional offers, urging consumers to act quickly [28]. Group 3: Product Features - The "Runxiquan" small silver shield essence is described as a multifunctional product that provides repair, soothing, anti-wrinkle, tightening, and moisturizing benefits [12][58]. - Key ingredients include S271, hydrolyzed sodium hyaluronate, and other soothing agents, which contribute to its effectiveness [14][72]. - The essence is noted for its rapid redness reduction and overall skin comfort [16][20]. Group 4: Cleansing Product - The "Runxiquan" luxury cleansing cream is highlighted for its high-quality formulation, focusing on balancing skin feel and cleansing power [37]. - It is designed to be gentle, creating a rich foam without causing friction, and is effective for removing light makeup [44][49]. - The cleansing cream is priced at 29 yuan for an 80g tube, with promotional offers for larger sizes [35][56].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growing trend of "anti-aging" skincare products in the beauty industry, emphasizing the marketing strategies employed by brands like Gu Yu, while also pointing out the regulatory risks associated with unverified claims [2][3][7]. Group 1: Industry Trends - "Anti-aging" has become a compelling keyword in the beauty industry, resonating with consumers' underlying age anxiety [2][3]. - Numerous skincare brands are entering the anti-aging market, with Gu Yu launching a dedicated product line and themed live streams to promote its anti-aging benefits [3][17]. Group 2: Regulatory Concerns - The National Medical Products Administration has not recognized "anti-aging" as a valid claim within the 26 categories of cosmetic efficacy, making Gu Yu's marketing approach a risky venture [6][7]. - Previous administrative penalties have been imposed on multiple cosmetic brands for misleading claims related to anti-aging effects, indicating a tightening regulatory environment [8][25]. Group 3: Marketing Strategies - Gu Yu employs celebrity endorsements to strengthen the perception of its anti-aging products, with campaigns featuring well-known figures like Qin Lan [18][20]. - The brand's promotional materials often include disclaimers that attempt to clarify the meaning of "anti-aging," but these may not sufficiently mitigate the risk of misleading consumers [22][27]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Future Outlook - Gu Yu has rapidly grown since its establishment in 2016, achieving a GMV of over 5 billion yuan in 2024 and positioning itself as a leader in the domestic whitening skincare market [28]. - The company has initiated an A-share IPO process, indicating its ambition for further growth, but it faces challenges in maintaining compliance amid increasing regulatory scrutiny [28].

Group 1: Consumer and Service Sector - The 2026 government work report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption as a strategic core, with policies characterized by stability, strong tools, efficiency, and structural optimization [6][7] - The report introduces a new 100 billion yuan fiscal and financial collaborative fund to promote domestic demand, alongside 250 billion yuan in special bonds to support consumption upgrades [6][7] - Key investment themes include service sector recovery, consumer spending driven by income growth, new consumption scenarios, and emotional consumption as consumer expectations improve [8][6] Group 2: Real Estate Market - The government work report focuses on stabilizing the real estate market, emphasizing the need to improve and guarantee livelihoods while balancing short-term market stability and long-term institutional construction [13][15] - Demand-side policies will continue to be city-specific, with a focus on optimizing housing policies for first-time homebuyers and families with multiple children [14][15] - The report highlights the need to control new land supply and promote the disposal of existing inventory to improve market supply-demand relationships [15][13] Group 3: Technology and Innovation - The report stresses the acceleration of high-level technological self-reliance, promoting the commercialization and large-scale application of artificial intelligence [26][27] - New emerging industries such as integrated circuits, aerospace, and future energy are highlighted as key areas for development, with a focus on fostering innovation and original achievements [27][26] - The government aims to support technology-driven enterprises through regularized financing and mergers and acquisitions green channels [26][27] Group 4: Environmental and Energy Transition - The report outlines a comprehensive green transition strategy, aiming for a 3.8% reduction in carbon emissions per unit of GDP, indicating a shift towards collaborative governance and green growth models [32][33] - Emphasis is placed on ecological environment governance, including air quality improvement, water body treatment, and solid waste management [33][34] - The establishment of a national low-carbon transition fund is proposed to support the development of hydrogen energy and green fuels, benefiting leading companies in these sectors [34][35] Group 5: Banking Sector - The report indicates a continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, with expectations for 1-2 rate cuts within the year to align with economic growth targets [40][41] - A new issuance of 800 billion yuan in policy financial instruments is planned to stimulate investment, alongside 4.4 trillion yuan in local government bonds to support major projects [41][40] - The report highlights the importance of risk prevention in key areas such as real estate and local government debt, with measures to mitigate potential defaults [42][41] Group 6: Machinery and Equipment - The government work report emphasizes the cultivation of new momentum in strategic emerging industries, focusing on advanced manufacturing and the integration of modern service industries [45][47] - Key sectors include semiconductor equipment and humanoid robotics, with a focus on domestic production capabilities and technological advancements [48][49] - The report encourages the development of low-altitude economy infrastructure and applications, with a growing demand for related technologies and services [49][48]

Core Viewpoint - The international beauty industry, particularly for Beiersdorf, is facing significant challenges including conservative consumer behavior in Europe and the US, intensified competition in China, and fluctuations in high-end skincare demand. The traditional growth model of "big products + global distribution" is becoming ineffective, necessitating a reassessment of brand portfolio quality and growth stability [3]. Group 1: Performance Overview - Beiersdorf's performance trajectory over the past five years can be divided into two phases: from 2021 to 2023, the company achieved rapid growth through strong brands and market expansion, culminating in record performance in 2023. In 2024, despite global skincare market pressures, the company still achieved approximately 6.5% organic growth [4]. - In 2025, the global skincare market growth is expected to slow further to about 1.5% to 2%. However, Beiersdorf's results reflect a repositioning of growth quality rather than merely a decline in growth rate, with a sales figure of €9.9 billion and an organic growth of 2.4% [4][12]. Group 2: Brand Performance - The flagship brand Nivea maintained its scale but experienced a slight growth slowdown, with 2025 sales increasing by 0.9% to €5.5 billion. The CEO expressed higher expectations for Nivea, which is undergoing a critical adjustment phase aimed at balancing innovation and market depth [7][17]. - The Derma segment, driven by brands like Eucerin and Aquaphor, achieved sales of €1.5 billion in 2025, marking an 11.7% growth and demonstrating stable growth over five consecutive years [8]. - The high-end brand La Prairie faced market volatility, with organic sales declining by 4.5% to €478 million. However, there was a marginal improvement in the fourth quarter, indicating potential for long-term value [11]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Beiersdorf's strategy in China for 2025 focuses on "deepening" and "investing," emphasizing localized operations and the introduction of key active ingredients like Thiamidol, which has completed its localization process [14][16]. - Nivea's strategic adjustment in China aims to shift focus from price-sensitive personal care to high-end skincare, utilizing digital channels for accelerated growth. This includes streamlining product offerings and optimizing distribution processes [17][19]. - Eucerin's brand in China also launched successful new products and marketing initiatives, resulting in a 29.35% increase in e-commerce sales in 2025 [21][23]. Group 4: Innovation and Research - Beiersdorf's sustained performance can be attributed to its long-term commitment to foundational scientific research and innovative technologies. The company has focused on three high-value research areas: pigmentation mechanisms, anti-aging solutions, and skin microbiome science [28][29]. - The company has developed a groundbreaking technology utilizing skin-derived probiotics aimed at treating acne-prone skin, with plans to launch a new product line in 2026 [29][30]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite a challenging market environment in 2026, Beiersdorf anticipates stable or slightly organic growth in net sales, with a focus on leveraging its strong brand matrix and deep skincare expertise [30].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong growth potential for the facial essence oil industry, with a market growth rate projected to remain high, despite a slight decrease from 51.7% to 35.6% from 2023 to 2025 [14]. Core Insights - The facial essence oil market is characterized by a significant focus on moisturizing and anti-wrinkle effects, which together account for nearly 50% of the market share, with growth rates of 16% and 12% respectively [8][9]. - The market is experiencing a clear channel differentiation, with Douyin emerging as the dominant platform, capturing a growing share of sales and volume, while Tmall faces challenges in maintaining its market position [16][17]. - Consumer pain points are concentrated around sensitivity to ingredients and product heaviness, indicating a need for better user education and expectation management [11]. Market Overview - The facial essence oil industry is classified under leave-on skincare products, primarily featuring plant or synthetic oils as bases, with a focus on compatibility and efficacy with human skin [6]. - The market is projected to grow from 37.8 billion yuan in 2023 to 77.8 billion yuan in 2025, with a notable increase in average prices, particularly on Tmall [15][19]. Product Segmentation - The product types include pure oil, water-oil dual-phase, and water-like/micro-emulsion types, each catering to different skin types and usage scenarios [7]. - The moisturizing and anti-wrinkle segments are the most lucrative, with average prices of 220 yuan and 251 yuan respectively, highlighting their premium positioning [9]. Pricing and Consumer Behavior - The core price range for facial essence oils on Douyin is between 150-300 yuan, generating significant sales compared to Tmall [11]. - The report identifies a clear trend of domestic brands focusing on volume sales, while international brands tend to position themselves in the high-end segment [23]. Brand Performance - Linqingxuan leads the market with a substantial share on both platforms, showing a remarkable growth rate of 257% on Douyin [21]. - The brand's strategy includes a dual pricing approach, targeting both high-end and budget-conscious consumers, with successful product launches driving sales [36]. Sales Channels and Marketing Strategies - The report emphasizes the importance of live streaming as a primary sales channel, particularly on Douyin, where it significantly contributes to overall sales growth [47]. - A tiered influencer strategy is employed to enhance brand visibility and conversion rates, with top influencers driving significant sales [54].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the cosmetics industry. Core Insights - The report focuses on significant events in the Chinese cosmetics industry, including major developments from both domestic and foreign companies, regulatory changes, and capital market activities, aiming to provide comprehensive and timely information for industry practitioners [2]. Summary by Sections Domestic Major Events - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange approved the full circulation of H shares for Mao Ge Ping Cosmetics Co., allowing 228 million H shares to be listed and traded [5]. - Chen's Group plans to acquire 92 stores of the Australian pharmacy chain Priceline Pharmacy, with potential competitors including Chemist Warehouse and TerryWhite Chemmart [5]. - Yiwan Yichuang intends to acquire 100% of Beijing Lianshi Legend Network Technology Co., a company focused on AI-driven marketing services [5]. - The skincare brand "Yiye" won two lawsuits related to cross-regional e-commerce and false advertising, receiving a total compensation of 200,000 yuan [6]. New Store Openings and Innovations - Han Shu opened a new store in Shanghai on February 11, offering promotional activities for customers [7]. - Agan launched a new beauty supply chain platform called "Six Little Horses," integrating B-end supply chain and C-end private store platforms [7]. - Shiseido China partnered with Meili Tianyuan to launch a new skincare brand RQ PYOLOGY, targeting high-end female consumers in China [7]. Foreign Companies' Major Events - The report does not provide specific details on foreign companies' major events. Channel Platform Developments - Japanese retailer Ito Yokado sold 90% of its Beijing subsidiary to Beijing Xincheng Supermarket Development Co., exiting actual operations in Beijing while retaining brand licensing [11]. - Estée Lauder's official flagship store entered Vipshop [11]. - Douyin's instant retail platform removed high-risk categories such as "children's makeup sets" and "beauty medical devices" from its listings [11]. Policy and Regulation - The State Administration for Market Regulation issued guidelines for the supervision of inspection and testing personnel, establishing a national blacklist for prohibited personnel [11]. - Multiple regions announced pilot enterprises for electronic labeling in cosmetics, including companies like Shiseido and Beijing Miki Biotechnology [12]. Capital Events - Beijing Huaguan Biotechnology Co., a synthetic biology company, completed a C-round financing of several hundred million yuan, with investors including SoftBank Vision Fund [14]. - Guangzhou Huadu District Market Supervision Bureau issued measures to promote high-quality development in the cosmetics industry [15]. New Raw Material Registrations - Several new raw materials were registered, including Bifidobacterium adolescentis and various plant extracts, indicating ongoing innovation in product formulations [16][18].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and outlook of various brands under the company, including 瑷尔博士 (Aier Doctor), 颐莲 (Yilian), and 珂谧 (Kemi) within the cosmetics and healthcare industry [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Brand Performance and Growth - 瑷尔博士 is undergoing a brand adjustment due to pricing issues, expected to recover by January 2026, leading to a return to high growth [2][4]. - 颐莲 is projected to achieve double-digit growth in 2025, driven by the successful upgrade of its spray line and the introduction of the "嘭润" series [2][4]. - 珂谧 aims for sales exceeding 100 million in 2025, with a strategic shift towards the "益生菌 287" series and the high-margin 王浆酸 series, which boasts an 85% gross margin [2][4]. Raw Materials and Pharmaceutical Segment - The raw materials segment, particularly hyaluronic acid, is experiencing high demand and rising prices, which will support performance in 2025-2026 [2][5]. - The pharmaceutical segment is minimally affected by centralized procurement policies, with ongoing exploration of new product paths, including health supplements [5]. Channel Strategy - The company is shifting its focus from Tmall to Douyin (TikTok), with single-channel sales accounting for over 30% [2][6]. - 瑷尔博士 has established 500-600 skin research institutes through a franchise model, enhancing brand reach and profitability [2][6]. Market Trends and Challenges - The overall sales performance during the "三八" (March 8) promotion was satisfactory, but the industry faces challenges such as prolonged promotional periods and rising costs of influencer marketing [7][8]. - The company is adapting to changes in consumer behavior and marketing efficiency, particularly in the context of Douyin's rising prominence [8]. Product Development and Innovation - The company has a robust pipeline for new products in 2026, focusing on upgrading existing lines and introducing new offerings [10][12]. - The 王浆酸 series is expected to perform well, with a focus on educating consumers about its benefits and leveraging content-driven marketing strategies [11][12]. Financial Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - The company anticipates a return to stable growth in 2026, following adjustments made in 2025 [3][16]. - There are ongoing discussions regarding stock incentives and potential mergers, with no definitive timelines provided [15][16]. Additional Important Content - The company is exploring overseas expansion, though short-term contributions to revenue are expected to be limited as they focus on establishing compliance and registration [14][15]. - The medical aesthetics segment is being developed with a focus on compliance and safety, leveraging existing sales teams to penetrate medical institutions [12][13]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, brand performance, market challenges, and future growth prospects.