Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music's Q1 2025 earnings report reflects a mixed performance amid a challenging competitive landscape, with a focus on long-term growth strategies and user engagement [1][11]. Membership Subscription: More Focused and Specialized - As of Q1, Tencent Music's paid penetration rate reached 22%, continuing to improve from the previous quarter, nearing 90% of its long-term video subscription target set three years ago [1]. - The increase in average revenue per user (ARPU) is attributed to a strategy targeting core heavy users and enhancing SVIP conversion rates, despite a general slowdown in subscription growth [2][4]. - The company is adjusting its volume and pricing strategies dynamically to maintain its leading market position [1]. Advertising and Digital Album Sales - Advertising revenue showed steady growth in Q1, supported by improved inventory management, while digital album sales remain volatile, heavily influenced by the release schedules of popular artists [7]. - The overall revenue from online music, including advertising and digital album sales, is expected to fluctuate based on market conditions and artist releases [7]. Financial Performance Overview - Total revenues for Q1 2025 were CNY 67.68 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 3.4%, but slightly beating consensus estimates by 1.15% [9]. - Gross profit for the same period was CNY 27.71 million, with a gross profit margin (GPM) of 40.9%, indicating a slight improvement from previous quarters [9]. - Non-IFRS net income was reported at CNY 18.12 million, exceeding expectations by 7.86% [9]. User Metrics and Trends - The number of paying users for online music reached approximately 11.35 million, with a net addition of 680,000 users in Q1 [9]. - Monthly ARPPU for online music was CNY 10.6, slightly above consensus estimates, indicating a positive trend in user monetization [9].

3. 截至发稿，WTI原油涨0.97%，报62.55美元/桶。布伦特原油涨0.82%，报65.49美元/桶。 | ඝ 伦敦布伦特原油 | 2025年7月 | 65.49 | 65.51 | 64.62 | +0.53 | +0.82% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ■ WTI原油 | 2025年6月 | 62.55 | 62.56 | 61.65 | +0.60 | +0.97% | 市场消息 关税冲击初现端倪，美国4月CPI预期反弹。美国4月CPI将于今晚公布。市场预测共识显示，美国4月CPI预计环比上涨0.3%， 同比上涨2.4%。剔除食品和能源价格的核心通胀预计上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.8%。此前在三月，由于能源价格走低推动通胀回 落，CPI出现自2020年以来的首次月度下降。多数预测人士表示，美国劳工统计局周二发布的报告将显示上月对中国和其他国 家加征的惩罚性关税的初步影响，但影响可能有限，因为上月美国货架上的许多进口商品是在新关税生效前运抵美国的。美国 银行经济学家指出："由于关税以及相关消费者行为的影响，核心商品通胀可能加速。"美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall market sentiment improved, leading to a collective rise in major U.S. stock indices, with notable gains in popular Chinese concept stocks, particularly Tencent Music, which saw a significant increase in its stock price following positive earnings expectations and results [1][3]. Company Performance - Tencent Music's total revenue for Q1 2025 reached 7.36 billion yuan, marking an 8.7% year-over-year increase [3]. - The adjusted net profit for the same quarter was 2.23 billion yuan, reflecting a 22.8% year-over-year growth [3]. - Online music service revenue grew by 15.9% year-over-year to 5.8 billion yuan, while online music subscription revenue increased by 16.6% to 4.22 billion yuan [3]. - The number of paid online music users rose by 8.3% to 12.29 million, with ARPPU (average revenue per paying user) increasing to 11.4 yuan [3]. Market Outlook - Several financial institutions, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS, have a positive outlook on Tencent Music's future growth, with ratings of "buy" or "overweight" [4]. - Morgan Stanley highlighted Tencent Music's strategic positioning and operational flexibility as key factors for maintaining resilience in uncertain macroeconomic conditions [4]. - CICC noted Tencent Music's focus on shareholder returns and the potential for continued healthy growth in its online music business driven by super member conversions and ARPPU improvements [4].

港股互联网：全球变局下的复盘与审视，哪些方向值得坚 守？20250512 摘要 • 港股近期修复速度超预期，恒指面临 23,000 点压力位，若风险偏好释放 或上探 24,000 点，恒生科技指数预计修复至 5,200 点，但需警惕超买修 正风险，建议关注确定性机会。 • 中美贸易战对美国是供给冲击，对中国是需求冲击。短期内美国可通过抢 出口和低价原油缓解内部问题，但长期压力较大，当前市场情绪亢奋，需 警惕风险。 • 港股互联网板块抗压性强，受益于内需和 AI 技术重估，如腾讯、阿里、快 手。即便回调或关税变动，仍具左侧配置机会，现金流充裕，美股估值修 复也将带动其重新估值。 • 中长期看，创新药、科技、新消费等领域因业绩阿尔法带来超额收益，值 得重点关注与配置。美股和港股互联网估值差异大，外资大幅回流港股可 能性较低，需经济企稳吸引外资。 • 2025 年初港股反弹因刺激政策预期、关税真空期、DECP 政策及超低估 值，但当前关税已定，反弹动力减弱，应防范回撤。纳斯达克回撤控制优 于港股，超买状态下应防控风险。 Q&A 今年以来港股整体表现如何？ 今年以来，港股整体表现震荡较大。虽然年初至今恒生指数和恒生科 ...

Core Insights - The online music industry in China has seen significant growth, with paid user numbers surpassing 150 million by the end of 2023, indicating a shift towards a more mature and healthy market [1][14] - The market size of China's online music industry reached 23.98 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a remarkable growth rate of 33.1% compared to the previous year [16][17] - The competitive landscape is primarily dominated by Tencent Music Entertainment Group and NetEase Cloud Music, with Tencent holding over 70% market share [1] Industry Overview - Online music refers to music content that is distributed, played, and stored via the internet, allowing users to access a vast array of music resources without the need for physical media [1][6] - The industry has evolved from early piracy issues to a streaming-dominated model, driven by technological innovations and diverse service offerings [8][10] Market Dynamics - The online music industry is characterized by a complex ecosystem that includes content production, technology support, distribution platforms, user engagement, and monetization strategies [12][13] - The growth in paid users is attributed to improved user willingness to pay, enhanced copyright environments, and innovations in AIGC technology [16] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the online music sector has stabilized, primarily between two major players: Tencent Music Entertainment Group and NetEase Cloud Music, leading to a "duopoly" situation [1] - The industry is expected to continue evolving, with ongoing analysis and predictions for market trends from 2025 to 2031 [22][30]

全球变局下的复盘与审视，哪些方向值得 坚守？——港股互联网行业策略报告 证券研究报告 2025年5月6日 付天姿 CFA FRM 研究所所长助理，海外组组长，海外TMT首席，执业证书编号： S0930517040002 赵越 海外&互联网分析师，执业证书编号： S0930524020001 杨朋沛 海外&互联网分析师，执业证书编号： S0930524070002 联系人：宾特丽亚 核心观点 重点标的更新：1、阿里巴巴-W：1）电商业务有望边际改善，淘天take rate有望呈止跌回升趋势，受益于全站推广的 渗透率提升和基础软件服务费的应用。后续AI 结合电商有助于改造电商消费入口，重点战略偏向提升变现效率和ROI， 利润有望稳中有增。2）云业务后续增速预期有望受益AI需求迎来上修，阿里大规模基础设施建设投入，Deepseek证 明AI需求。2、腾讯控股：游戏春节表现理想，关注《无畏契约手游》、《王者荣耀世界》等管线。广告受益于AI升级 技术平台，视频号加载率有望提升。capex投入逐步创造收入、元宝等AI应用驱动内部需求，企业服务收入预计增长。 3、网易-S：游戏未受关税影响，关注《七日世界》、《无限大》。快 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music (NYSE: TME) continues to show a trend of fundamental divergence, with strong growth in online music services offset by weakness in social entertainment, leading to a cautious outlook on the stock [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Music subscription revenue increased by 18% year-on-year to RMB 4.03 billion, driven by a 13% growth in paid user numbers and gradual ARPU improvement [2] - Social entertainment revenue declined by 13% year-on-year to RMB 1.6 billion due to adjustments in live interaction features and stricter compliance procedures [2] - Projected revenue for 2026 is expected to reach RMB 29.33 billion, with a target multiple of 5.0x, resulting in an implied value of approximately USD 13 per share, reflecting a 10% downside from current levels [5][6] Group 2: User Engagement and Content Strategy - Tencent Music is enhancing platform stickiness to support future ARPU growth, expanding its content library through partnerships with SM Entertainment and Kakao Entertainment [3] - The company is investing in application optimization and AI-driven recommendations, resulting in a 10% increase in user playlists and improved sound quality [3] - SVIP membership numbers are steadily increasing, with enhanced features like high-definition online concerts and an expanded digital library attracting more users [3][4] Group 3: Market Outlook and Valuation - Given the structural decline in social entertainment, Tencent Music's valuation should be based solely on its music subscription and advertising business [4] - Future growth expectations include an 11% CAGR in paid users and a 5% CAGR in ARPU over the next two years, with advertising revenue expected to grow at a 15% CAGR [4][6] - The company is also exploring partnerships for in-car music services, which could drive user growth as the automotive market shifts towards high-tech electric vehicles [4]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music's Q4 2024 earnings report shows mixed results, with subscription growth under pressure but improved profitability and cost management, indicating potential for future growth despite competitive challenges [1][7]. Subscription Performance - The number of subscription users increased by 2 million in Q4, remaining flat compared to Q3, which aligns with previous guidance [1]. - Subscription revenue grew by 18% year-over-year, driven by an increase in average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) [3][14]. - The company aims to increase its subscription penetration rate to 25%-30%, currently at 21.8% [17]. Profitability and Cost Management - Operating income for the core business reached 2.079 billion CNY, exceeding market expectations, with an operating profit margin of 27.9% [5][21]. - The gross profit margin improved to 43.6%, reflecting effective cost management and operational efficiency [20][21]. - Non-IFRS net income for Q4 was 2.399 billion CNY, a 43% year-over-year increase, primarily due to favorable currency fluctuations [22]. Shareholder Returns - A new share buyback plan of 1 billion USD over two years and a dividend of 273 million USD for 2024 were approved, resulting in a shareholder return yield of 3.5% [2][3]. Competitive Landscape - Monthly active users (MAU) decreased by 20 million to 556 million, raising concerns about competition, particularly from competitors like Kuaishou Music [2][12]. - Kuaishou Music's MAU has surged to nearly 100 million, indicating a significant competitive threat [8][13]. Cash Position - As of the end of Q4, Tencent Music had a net cash position of 25 billion CNY (approximately 3.5 billion USD), which could be utilized for shareholder returns and potential investments [4][23].