Core Viewpoint - The music industry is expected to achieve dual growth in traffic and paid subscriptions through copyright expansion, as highlighted by Dongfang Securities' recent report on Tencent Music (TME.US) and NetEase Cloud Music [1] Group 1: Company Insights - Tencent Music's stock rose over 3% to $21.31, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The company is expected to enhance its user base by acquiring Korean company SM and planning to acquire Ximalaya, which will likely attract K-pop and long audio users [1] - The increase in the proportion of paid users and the expansion of SVIP benefits are driving growth in Average Revenue Per Paying User (ARPPU) [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The report suggests that both Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music can stabilize and improve traffic and payment rates through copyright supplementation and user operations [1] - NetEase Cloud Music is maintaining stable traffic by incubating independent musicians and securing K-pop copyrights [1]

Core Viewpoint - The music industry is expected to achieve dual growth in traffic and paid subscriptions through copyright expansion, as highlighted by Dongfang Securities' recent report [1] Group 1: Company Insights - Tencent Music's stock rose over 3% to $21.31, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - Tencent Music is expected to enhance its user base by acquiring Korean company SM and planning to acquire Ximalaya, which will likely attract K-pop and long audio users [1] - NetEase Cloud Music is maintaining stable traffic through independent artist incubation and K-pop copyright [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The report suggests that both Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music can stabilize and improve traffic and payment rates through copyright supplementation and user operations [1] - The increase in the proportion of paid walls and the expansion of SVIP benefits are driving growth in ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The music industry is expected to achieve dual growth in traffic and paid subscriptions through copyright expansion, with Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music leading the way in user engagement and content acquisition [1] Company Analysis - Tencent Music's stock rose over 3% to $21.31, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The company is enhancing its user base by acquiring Korean company SM and planning to acquire Ximalaya, which is expected to attract K-pop and long audio users [1] - The increase in the proportion of paid users and the expansion of SVIP benefits are driving growth in Average Revenue Per Paying User (ARPPU) [1] Industry Insights - The report from Dongfang Securities highlights that both Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music are stabilizing and improving their traffic and payment rates through copyright supplementation and user operations [1] - NetEase Cloud Music is maintaining stable traffic by incubating independent musicians and securing K-pop copyrights [1]

Group 1 - Citigroup has lowered the target price for Spotify from $780 to $715 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing copyright dispute surrounding the song "Year Ring" highlights the complexities and challenges in the music industry's copyright system, particularly in the context of multiple versions and interpretations of songs [1][19][20] Group 1: Background of the Dispute - The controversy began when online singer "Wang Zai Xiao Qiao" claimed that the original singer of "Year Ring" is only Zhang Bichen, leading to a "dual original singer" dispute between the song's creator Wang Sulong and performer Zhang Bichen [3][5] - The year 2015 marked a pivotal moment in China's online music copyright landscape, with the National Copyright Administration issuing a notice to halt unauthorized music distribution, thus ending the "wild west" era of online music [3][4] Group 2: Industry Response - Major music streaming platforms, such as QQ Music and NetEase Cloud, exhibited unusual behavior by altering the "original singer" labels for the song, which raised public skepticism about the criteria for determining "original" status [4][19] - The platforms' actions reflect a lack of a clear and transparent standard for defining "original" in the context of multiple versions of songs, indicating a need for improved governance in the industry [4][20] Group 3: Implications for Copyright System - The "dual original singer" situation underscores the necessity for a more refined and transparent copyright determination system that accommodates the evolving nature of music production and consumption [19][20] - The current copyright framework struggles to adapt to the complexities of multiple interpretations and versions of songs, necessitating a shift towards a more nuanced approach that balances emotional value and commercial interests [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation and challenges faced by Ximalaya, China's largest online audio platform, particularly in light of its acquisition by Tencent Music at a significantly reduced price, raising questions about its worth and sustainability in the competitive landscape of online audio and music [4][38]. Group 1: Valuation and Market Position - Ximalaya was sold to Tencent Music for 20.9 billion, which is one-third less than its last financing round valuation of 30 billion [4]. - Despite having a monthly active user base nearing 300 million, Ximalaya's financial struggles are evident, with over 3 billion in losses over five years and multiple failed IPO attempts [4][20]. - The valuation of Ximalaya is compared to other platforms, indicating it is worth approximately seven times Zhihu, eight times Keep, and eleven times Douyu [4]. Group 2: Importance of Copyright - Copyright is identified as the most valuable asset for online audio platforms, with Ximalaya's strategic partnerships and acquisitions in this area being crucial for its market position [5][11]. - Ximalaya has established significant copyright agreements, holding 70% of the market for audiobooks and exclusive content partnerships since 2014 [8][9]. - The platform's revenue structure heavily relies on subscription income, which constitutes over half of its total revenue, primarily driven by its extensive copyright library [10]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - Ximalaya's subscription revenue growth has drastically slowed from 57.1% in 2021 to 8.5% in 2023, indicating a decline in user willingness to pay [24]. - The average monthly active users include a significant number from third-party platforms, which may not contribute to revenue, highlighting the limitations of monetization in the audio sector [22]. - The platform's operational costs are heavily influenced by revenue sharing and content costs, which together account for over 30% of its income [20]. Group 4: Industry Comparisons - In contrast to Ximalaya, Tencent Music has a more robust subscription model with a higher payment rate, indicating a more mature commercial structure in the online music sector [32][36]. - The online audio market lacks the broad audience and established commercial mechanisms that the online music industry possesses, making it difficult for platforms like Ximalaya to achieve similar financial success [37]. - The article suggests that the online audio industry's ceiling for user engagement and monetization is lower than anticipated, leading to Ximalaya's ongoing financial difficulties [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation and challenges faced by Ximalaya, China's largest online audio platform, particularly in light of its acquisition by Tencent Music at a significantly reduced price, raising questions about its worth and the impact of copyright on its business model [4][18][46]. Group 1: Valuation and Market Position - Ximalaya was sold to Tencent Music for 209 billion, which is a one-third reduction from its last financing round valuation of 300 billion [4][18]. - Despite having a monthly active user base comparable to Xiaohongshu, Ximalaya's valuation is significantly lower than other platforms like Zhihu and Douyu, indicating a market perception of its worth [4][18]. - The platform has faced four unsuccessful attempts to go public and has incurred losses exceeding 3 billion over five years, which contributed to its discounted sale price [4][18]. Group 2: Importance of Copyright - Copyright is identified as the most valuable asset for online audio platforms, with Ximalaya's success heavily reliant on its exclusive content, particularly from popular figures like Guo Degang [5][11]. - Ximalaya has strategically secured a significant portion of the market's audio book rights, holding 70% of the available adaptations through partnerships with major content providers [8][9]. - The platform's content library includes over 5.2 million audio books and 1.6 million pieces of entertainment audio, showcasing its extensive copyright portfolio [10]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - Ximalaya's subscription revenue has been the primary income source, contributing over half of its total revenue, but the growth rate has declined from 57.1% in 2021 to 8.5% in 2023 [21][27]. - The platform's average monthly active users reached 300 million in 2023, but the willingness to pay among users remains low, with a payment rate of only 11.6% [18][24]. - High operational costs, particularly in content acquisition and revenue sharing, have strained profitability, leading to significant layoffs and cost-cutting measures [19][21][22]. Group 4: Industry Comparison - In contrast to Ximalaya, competitors like Litchi FM have struggled with monetization, highlighting the importance of having strong copyright assets to drive revenue [14][15]. - The online audio market lacks the broad audience and mature business models seen in the online music sector, which has higher user engagement and monetization potential [44][36]. - The article suggests that the online audio industry's ceiling for user engagement and revenue generation is lower than anticipated, limiting growth opportunities for platforms like Ximalaya [25][44].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of Ximalaya, questioning whether it is worth 20.9 billion yuan after its acquisition by Tencent Music, highlighting a significant drop from its previous valuation of 30 billion yuan during the last funding round [1][2]. Group 1: Valuation and Market Comparison - Ximalaya's valuation of 20.9 billion yuan is comparable to seven times that of Zhihu, eight times that of Keep, and eleven times that of Douyu, indicating a substantial reduction in perceived value [2]. - The company has faced four unsuccessful attempts to go public and has incurred losses exceeding 3 billion yuan over five years, making the discounted sale seem reasonable [2]. Group 2: Importance of Copyright - The article emphasizes that copyright is the most valuable asset for online audio platforms, similar to how Tencent Music cannot afford to lose Jay Chou, Ximalaya cannot afford to lose Guo Degang [5][3]. - Ximalaya has strategically invested in copyright since 2014, partnering with Guo Degang's company, and has secured 70% of the market's audio book adaptation rights through agreements with major copyright holders [9][11]. Group 3: Revenue Structure and Challenges - Ximalaya's revenue structure shows that subscription income contributes over half of its total revenue, with a significant reliance on audio books and traditional storytelling formats [12][13]. - Despite having a large user base, the platform struggles with monetization, as evidenced by a decline in subscription revenue growth from 57.1% in 2021 to 8.5% in 2023 [35]. Group 4: User Engagement and Market Limitations - Ximalaya's average monthly active users reached 300 million, but the user engagement metrics indicate a potential ceiling, with average listening time declining from 144 minutes in 2021 to 130 minutes in 2023 [22][30]. - The platform's user base includes a significant number of IoT and third-party platform users, which limits the monetization potential compared to video platforms [31]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The article compares Ximalaya's situation to that of its competitors, noting that platforms like Lizhi, which rely on user-generated content, have lower monetization rates, highlighting Ximalaya's relatively better performance [17][19]. - The online audio market faces challenges due to a lack of a broad audience and a mature commercial mechanism, making it difficult to balance high copyright costs with revenue generation [58]. Group 6: Acquisition Context - Tencent Music's acquisition of Ximalaya reflects a strategic move to consolidate its position in the online audio market, especially after struggling with its own platform, Penguin FM [62][64]. - The acquisition gives Tencent Music control over a significant portion of the online audio market, with Ximalaya holding a market share of 45.52% [64].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The media industry continues to show high growth potential, particularly in gaming, offline entertainment, and AI applications. The report emphasizes the importance of investing in these sectors to capitalize on ongoing trends [4][5] Industry Data Overview - The game "Delta Force" ranks first on the iOS free chart in mainland China, while "Honor of Kings" holds the top position on the iOS revenue chart as of July 19, 2025 [12][14] - The film "Jurassic World: Rebirth" achieved the highest box office revenue for the week [12] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector is experiencing a new product cycle, with companies like Xindong and Youyi Time reporting positive earnings forecasts for H1 2025, driven by new game launches and improved profit margins [4] - The report recommends focusing on high-potential gaming companies such as Xindong, Giant Network, and Perfect World [4] Online Music Sector - The online music market has significant growth potential, especially among younger users. The report highlights the increasing user base and potential for higher ARPU compared to international platforms like Spotify [4] Concert and Live Events - The concert industry is expected to maintain high growth, with a reported 78% year-on-year increase in box office revenue for large concerts in 2024 [4] Domestic Animation - The domestic animation sector is thriving, with successful releases like "The Legend of Luo Xiaohei 2" and upcoming events such as ChinaJoy 2025 expected to drive consumer engagement and spending [4] AI Applications - Recent advancements in AI, including the release of new models and applications, are anticipated to accelerate commercialization in various sectors, including AI companionship, creation, and marketing [5] Company Performance - The report highlights key companies in the gaming and entertainment sectors, recommending specific stocks based on their performance and market position [4][5]

Tencent Music Research Summary Industry and Company Overview - Tencent Music operates in the online music and social entertainment industry, having established itself as a leading player in China since its inception in 2016 through a merger with China Music Corporation [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Copyright Strategy**: Tencent Music initially secured a large number of exclusive copyrights through strategic partnerships, maintaining over 90% of core copyright resources even after the market opened up [2][3]. - **Revenue Growth**: Online music services are projected to account for 75% of total revenue by 2024, with subscription revenue increasing by 26% year-on-year to reach 15.2 billion yuan, and gross margin improving to 42% [2][7]. - **User Engagement**: The company is expanding its fan economy by launching subscription products like Bubble, enhancing interaction between artists and fans, and leveraging social media platforms like WeChat and QQ [2][6]. - **User Metrics**: By the end of 2024, Tencent Music expects to have 556 million monthly active users and a music library of 260 million songs, with 121 million paying users and a payment rate of 21.8% [2][8][9]. - **Market Position**: Tencent Music holds a 14% share of the global market, compared to Spotify's 32%, indicating significant growth potential [9]. Additional Important Insights - **Long Audio Market Expansion**: Tencent Music is expanding into the long audio market through the acquisition of Ximalaya and leveraging IP resources from the Reading Group [10]. - **Hardware Ecosystem**: The company collaborates with hardware manufacturers to create a "music + social + UGC" ecosystem, enhancing user experience through smart device integration [11][12]. - **ARPU Growth**: The average revenue per user (ARPU) is expected to increase to 11.4 yuan in Q1 2025, with plans to reach 13-15 yuan in the next two to three years [13][14]. - **Technological Innovations**: Tencent Music is investing in AIGC technologies to reduce music production costs and enhance user experience, including virtual idol concerts and AI-driven music recommendations [4][15]. - **Financial Projections**: For 2025, Tencent Music anticipates total revenue of 31 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 45% and a net profit of 8.9 billion yuan, indicating a healthy financial outlook [4][16]. Investment Considerations - **Future Outlook**: Investors are encouraged to monitor Tencent Music's developments, particularly in fan economy initiatives and collaborations in the Korean entertainment sector, as these are expected to drive significant growth [17].