证券研究报告 港股通 网易云音乐 (9899 HK) 盈利超预期，经营杠杆持续释放 2025 年 8 月 15 日│中国香港 互联网 | 华泰研究 | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 8 月 | 15 日│中国香港 | 互联网 | 目标价(港币): | 360.42 | | | | | 夏路路 | 研究员 | SAC No. S0570523100002 SFC No. BTP154 +(852) 3658 6000 詹博 研究员 zhanbo@htsc.com SAC No. S0570523110002 SFC No. BUS698 郑裕佳 研究员 SAC No. S0570524070002 SFC No. BTB676 zhengyujia@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 基本数据 | 目标价 (港币) | 360.42 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (港币 截至 8 月 14 日) | 270.20 | | 市值 (港币百万) | 58,849 | | 6 个月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music with a target price of HKD 118, driven by user growth, improved ARPPU, and strong performance in advertising and concert-related businesses [1] Financial Performance - Tencent Music's revenue for Q2 2025 reached RMB 84.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, with a gross margin of 44.4% [1] - Operating profit was RMB 29.8 billion, up 35.5% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 35.3% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was RMB 25.7 billion, reflecting a 37.4% year-on-year increase, with an adjusted net margin of 30.5% [1] User Growth and Revenue Streams - The online music service revenue for Q2 2025 was RMB 68.5 billion, a 26.4% increase year-on-year, with subscription revenue at RMB 43.8 billion, up 17.1% [2] - The number of paying users reached 124 million, a 6.3% increase year-on-year, with ARPPU at RMB 11.7, a 9.3% increase [2] - The paid penetration rate reached 22.5%, with SVIP users exceeding 15 million, accounting for 12.1% of paying users [2] Business Expansion and Content Strategy - Tencent Music is expanding its partnerships with domestic and international record companies and artists, including collaborations with The BlackLabel and H Music to enhance K-pop offerings [2] - The company is innovating content production in collaboration with SM Entertainment to promote NCT CHENLE's Chinese EP [2] - Tencent Music provided nearly 300 live performance opportunities for around 100 artists on its platform in the first half of 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth in Q2 2025, primarily driven by online music services, despite declines in social entertainment and other service revenues [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue reached 8.44 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 17.9% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 14.8% [1]. - Q2 2025 gross margin was 44.4%, up 2.4 percentage points year-over-year and 0.3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1]. - Q2 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders (IFRS) was 2.41 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 43.2% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 43.9% [1]. - Adjusted net profit (Non-IFRS) for Q2 2025 was 2.57 billion yuan, up 37.4% year-over-year and 21.2% quarter-over-quarter [1]. - For Q3 2025, the company expects revenue to reach 8.26 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 17.7% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 2.2% [1]. Group 2: Online Music Segment - Q2 2025 online music revenue was 6.85 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 26.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 18.1% [2]. - The company anticipates Q3 2025 online music revenue to be 6.75 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 23.2% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 1.5% [2]. - Q2 2025 monthly active users (MAU) for online music were 553 million, down 3.2% year-over-year and 0.4% quarter-over-quarter [2]. - Q2 2025 average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) was 11.7 yuan per month, up 9.3% year-over-year and 2.6% quarter-over-quarter [2]. Group 3: Social Entertainment Segment - Q2 2025 social entertainment revenue was 1.59 billion yuan, down 8.5% year-over-year but up 2.3% quarter-over-quarter [2]. - The company expects Q3 2025 social entertainment revenue to decline to 1.51 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 1.9% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 5.2% [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 11.6 billion, 11.1 billion, and 12.8 billion yuan respectively, with upward revisions based on increased music subscription rates [3]. - A target price of 112.8 HKD (102.6 CNY) is set for 2026, based on a P/E ratio of 29 times [3].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music's Q2 revenue reached 8.44 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, exceeding both the firm's and market expectations [1] - Non-IFRS net profit was 2.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.4%, also surpassing expectations, primarily due to better-than-expected non-subscription revenue from advertising, concerts, and artist merchandise [1] Financial Performance - The strong performance in non-subscription business led to an upward revision of Tencent Music's Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 6.8% and 13.0%, respectively, to 9.46 billion yuan and 11.21 billion yuan [1] - The target price for H-shares has been raised by 43.1% to 114.5 HKD, while the target price for US shares has been increased by 42% to 29.4 USD [1]

Macro Economic Group - The July PPI in the US increased by 3.3% year-on-year, the highest since February, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, the highest since June 2022 [4] - Core PPI rose by 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9% [4] - The unexpected strength in PPI data may lead to a market reassessment of inflation and interest rates, with a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut expected in September [4][5] Industry Comprehensive Group - Taicheng Technology reported a revenue of 828 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 62.49%, and a net profit of 173 million yuan, up 118.02% [7] - The increase in performance is attributed to self-developed key components replacing external purchases and changes in sales structure, leading to a rise in gross margin [7] - The AI server revenue of Hon Hai Precision Industry reached 1.79 trillion NTD in Q2, a year-on-year increase of over 60%, with expectations for continued growth in the AI market [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - The energy storage industry is experiencing a surge in demand, with many companies reporting improved performance due to accelerated project implementation and positive market signals [9] - 152 energy storage companies are advocating against internal competition, indicating a shift towards high-quality development in the industry [9] - The sales of new energy heavy trucks reached 16,200 units in July, a year-on-year increase of 185%, with a cumulative sales of 82,200 units from January to July, reflecting strong market confidence [10][11] Consumer Group - Jinlongyu reported a revenue of 115.68 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.67%, with a net profit of 1.756 billion yuan, up 60.07% [15] - Tencent Music achieved a revenue of 15.798 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.43%, with a net profit of 6.7 billion yuan, up 115.85% [16]

Core Viewpoint - NetEase Cloud Music (09899) experienced a stock price increase of over 5%, reaching 284 HKD with a trading volume of 174 million HKD following the release of its interim results for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 3.827 billion RMB for the interim period [1] - Profit attributable to equity holders reached 1.885 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year increase of 132.83% [1] - Basic earnings per share were 8.96 RMB, with adjusted net profit at 1.946 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 120.99% [1] - The gross margin for the first half of the year was 36.4%, the highest for the company during the same period historically [1] Business Segments - Online music services generated revenue of 2.97 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 15.9% [1] - Monthly active users continued to grow steadily, with the daily active users to monthly active users ratio remaining above 30% [1] - Revenue from subscription services increased from 2.14 billion RMB in the first half of 2024 to 2.47 billion RMB in the current year, representing a growth of 15.2% [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **U.S. Inflation Analysis**: Bank of America (BofA), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) - **Chinese Credit Market**: Goldman Sachs (GS) - **Lithium Supply in China**: Goldman Sachs (GS) - **Global Natural Gas Market**: JPMorgan Chase (JPM) - **Chinese Baijiu Market**: Goldman Sachs (GS) - **Chinese IP Retail and Toys**: Goldman Sachs (GS) - **Tencent Music Entertainment (TME)**: Goldman Sachs (GS) Core Insights and Arguments U.S. Inflation Analysis 1. **CPI Performance**: In July, the overall CPI in the U.S. increased more than expected due to a rebound in energy prices, while core CPI growth was slightly below market expectations, indicating a counterbalancing effect between components [1][2][5] 2. **Energy Price Impact**: The significant rise in energy prices, particularly gasoline, was a major factor driving the overall CPI above expectations, attributed to rising crude oil prices and reduced refinery maintenance [2][6] 3. **Core Inflation Trends**: Core CPI's decline was primarily due to falling used car prices, easing service inflation, and a slowdown in rent increases, aligning with the Federal Reserve's expectations for a gradual cooling of core inflation [3][6] 4. **Market Predictions**: Despite short-term energy price volatility, the sustained decline in core inflation supports the Fed's current policy stance, with a slight increase in market expectations for rate cuts later in the year [6][10] Chinese Credit Market 1. **Historic Loan Decline**: In July, China's new RMB loans turned negative for the first time in 20 years, reflecting weak credit demand compounded by seasonal factors [14][18] 2. **Loan Demand Disparity**: There was a significant drop in medium to long-term loans for enterprises, indicating insufficient investment willingness, while residential loans remained weak due to poor real estate sales [15][18] 3. **Seasonal and Regulatory Effects**: The decline in credit data was influenced by seasonal repayment peaks and stricter financial regulations, which limited loan issuance [16][18] 4. **Policy Implications**: The negative loan growth, although partly driven by short-term factors, indicates insufficient credit demand amid a sluggish economic recovery, prompting expectations for increased counter-cyclical policy measures [18] Lithium Supply in China 1. **Supply Chain Overview**: China plays a crucial role in the global lithium supply chain, being the largest importer of lithium concentrate and a significant producer of lithium carbonate and hydroxide [24] 2. **Future Supply Growth**: Domestic production expansions and strategic partnerships with overseas mining companies are expected to drive lithium supply growth in the coming years [25] 3. **Supply Uncertainties**: The lithium supply faces uncertainties related to extraction technology efficiency, cost control, and geopolitical factors that could impact imports [26] 4. **Price Dynamics**: The interplay of strong demand and supply growth uncertainties will directly influence lithium price trends [27][28] Global Natural Gas Market 1. **Transition Role of Natural Gas**: Natural gas is viewed as a transitional energy source in the context of global energy decarbonization, with resilient demand in power generation and industrial sectors [30] 2. **Policy-Driven Demand Changes**: Carbon reduction policies may increase the cost of natural gas usage in certain industries, affecting long-term consumption patterns [31] 3. **Regional Market Dynamics**: The U.S. focuses on export and infrastructure upgrades, while Europe may see a significant decline in natural gas demand due to energy security policies [32] 4. **Investment Implications**: Policy trends will shape global natural gas supply chain investments, potentially diverting capital expenditures towards renewable energy and hydrogen sectors [33] Chinese Baijiu Market 1. **Policy and Market Balance**: Recent macro and industry policies aim to balance growth stimulation and risk control, impacting the demand recovery pace in the baijiu industry [35] 2. **Wholesale Price Trends**: Major high-end baijiu brands continue to experience weak wholesale prices, reflecting initial recovery stages in channel confidence and end-demand [36] 3. **Channel Dynamics**: The recovery in terminal sales is uneven, with cautious restocking by distributors due to demand uncertainties [37] 4. **Investment Outlook**: Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for high-end brands remains resilient, with a focus on inventory reduction and policy effects on demand improvement [39] Chinese IP Retail and Toys 1. **Labubu Series Price Adjustment**: The premium level of the Labubu series has recently declined due to increased supply and waning consumer novelty, though overall demand remains high [41] 2. **Stable Prices for Other IPs**: Other major IPs have maintained stable prices, indicating sustained consumer interest in diverse IP offerings [42] 3. **Expansion of IP Collaborations**: Miniso is actively expanding collaborations with various IPs, enhancing product freshness and driving sales growth [43] 4. **Market Dynamics**: Offline channels remain core to IP retail, with significant traffic increases during peak seasons, while online platforms provide price references [44] 5. **Long-term Growth Drivers**: The long-term growth of the IP retail and toy market will depend on operational capabilities, content iteration, and channel optimization [45] Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) 1. **Performance Exceeds Expectations**: TME's Q2 performance surpassed market expectations, driven by growth in online music subscriptions and improved advertising revenue [46] 2. **User Growth**: The number of paid online music users continues to rise, with an increase in ARPPU, reflecting ongoing optimization in content supply and user engagement [47] 3. **Diversification of Revenue**: TME is actively expanding revenue sources beyond core music services, benefiting from advertising and deep collaborations with artists [48] 4. **Profitability Improvement**: Enhanced operational efficiency and cost control have led to improved profit margins, particularly in content and bandwidth costs [49] 5. **Upgraded Annual Guidance**: Based on strong Q2 results and upcoming activities, TME has raised its annual performance guidance, with medium to long-term growth reliant on diversified revenue and global strategies [50]

来源：金融界 2025年上半年，会员订阅收入同比增长15.2%，集团的毛利率于2025年上半年达到36.4%，相较2024年 同期显着提升。 8月14日消息，网易云音乐发布截至2025年6月30日止6个月的中期业绩，该集团取得收入人民币38.27亿 元;公司权益持有人期内利润18.85亿元，同比增加132.83%;每股基本盈利8.96元;经调整净利润19.46亿 元，同比增加120.99%。 在线音乐服务收入由截至2024年6月30日止6个月的人民币25.6亿元增加15.9%至截至2025年6月30日止6 个月的人民币29.67亿元。会员订阅服务收入由截至2024年6月30日止6个月的人民币21.44亿元增加至截 至2025年6月30日止6个月的人民币24.7亿元。每月活跃用户总数保持稳定增长势头。 ...

Group 1: NetEase Cloud Music - NetEase Cloud Music reported revenue of 3.827 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, showing a slight year-on-year decline; operating profit increased by 40.8% to 845 million yuan [1] - The company launched new product features such as "Little Light Bulb," "DeepSeek," and "Shen Guang Mode" player, which contributed to increased user activity and listening duration on the app [1] - Profit growth significantly outpaced revenue decline, indicating effective cost optimization and membership price increases; continued innovation and expansion into advertising and live streaming could enhance profitability in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Guangzhou East Station - Guangzhou East Station has stopped selling instant noodles to maintain hygiene standards, replacing them with mixed noodles and providing hot water [2] - The station's response aligns with national railway regulations aimed at improving the cleanliness of high-speed train environments, allowing passengers to bring their own instant noodles [2] - The shift in food offerings may benefit suppliers of mixed noodles and cold chain boxed meals if implemented nationwide, while instant noodle companies may need to rely on campus and e-commerce sales [2] Group 3: Walmart - Walmart expanded its employee discount program to include a 10% discount on nearly all grocery items year-round, aimed at alleviating rising food costs and improving employee retention [3] - Approximately 1.6 million employees will benefit from this program after 90 days of employment, although clearance items are excluded [3] - The enhancement of employee benefits is expected to reduce turnover rates and improve operational efficiency during peak retail seasons, though the company has not disclosed the estimated costs of this expanded discount [3] Group 4: Ganyuan Foods - Ganyuan Foods indicated strong market potential for several of its products and plans to actively communicate with various channels for new product collaborations [4] - E-commerce remains a crucial sales channel for the company, with expectations for continued growth and penetration of new products in the online market [4] - The dual strategy of new product development and channel expansion is likely to increase the proportion of e-commerce revenue, with a focus on controlling promotional expenses to enhance profitability [4]

Group 1: NetEase Cloud Music - NetEase Cloud Music reported a revenue of 3.827 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, showing a slight year-on-year decline [1] - Operating profit reached 845 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.8% [1] - The introduction of new features such as "Little Light Bulb" and "DeepSeek" has led to increased user engagement and listening duration on the app [1] - The profit growth significantly outpaced revenue, indicating effective cost optimization and membership price increases [1] - Continued innovation and expansion into advertising and live streaming could enhance profitability in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Walmart - Walmart announced an expansion of employee shopping discounts to 10% on nearly all grocery items, aimed at alleviating rising food costs for employees [2] - This benefit will be available year-round and is expected to improve employee recruitment and retention [2] - Approximately 1.6 million employees will be eligible for this benefit after 90 days of employment, excluding clearance items [2] - The upgrade in employee benefits is likely to reduce turnover rates and enhance operational efficiency during peak retail seasons [2] - Walmart has not disclosed the estimated costs of this expanded discount, which could impact food business profit margins if the scale is significant [2] Group 3: Ganyuan Foods - Ganyuan Foods indicated stable partnerships with major domestic channels and identified significant market potential for several products [3] - The company plans to actively communicate with various channels for new product collaborations while promoting innovative and cost-effective products [3] - E-commerce remains a crucial sales channel, with expectations for continued growth and penetration of new products [3] - The company aims to enhance online business development, increase influencer collaboration, and improve coverage in new media channels [3] - Successful product launches and controlled promotional expenses could lead to improved profitability [3]