每经记者｜刘明涛 每经编辑｜彭水萍 上周，全球市场风险偏好下降，美股科技股调整，国内半导体、新能源产业链板块调整幅度较大。 受此影响，每经品牌100指数上周下跌4.45%，以1150.98点报收。不过，在监管部门强调"坚决防止市场 大起大落、急涨急跌"的背景下，市场或不具备持续下跌的基础。 上周主要股指全线下跌 上周，外部风险释放带来指数层面的调整，A股主要股指全线下跌。截至11月21日收盘，上证指数周跌 3.90%，深证成指周跌5.13%，创业板指和科创50指数则分别周跌6.15%和5.54%。每经品牌100指数上周 也出现回调，周跌幅达4.45%，以1150.98点报收，失守1200点大关。 成分股表现方面，中国银行上周上涨8.08%，周K线实现"七连阳"，股价创历史新高，中国石化、伊利 股份、光大银行、建设银行、中国石油以及古井贡酒周涨幅超过2%，跑赢股指。周市值增长方面，中 国银行周市值增长1514.4亿元，市值增长较大，建设银行、中国石油以及中国石化市值增长则在300亿 元以上。 虽然A股主要股指出现大幅调整，但证监会明确将加大制度建设力度，优化上市公司结构、强化风险防 控与投资者保护，护航市场高质 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a "three-phase overlap," characterized by a mid-bull market consolidation period, a critical phase for verifying economic conditions, and a performance policy gap, leading to increased market volatility and year-end profit-taking by investors [1] Market Environment - Recent overseas disturbances have affected the market, with fluctuating expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December impacting global liquidity [1] - Nvidia's earnings report exceeded expectations but caused significant stock price volatility, raising concerns about the sustainability of AI spending, which has affected investor sentiment in the A-share market [1] Long-term Outlook - The long-term slow bull market structure remains unchanged, suggesting a focus on strategic positioning in the short term while awaiting the outcomes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December [1] Investment Strategy - During the interim period, if sufficient market adjustments occur, there may be opportunities for increased positions and accumulation [1] - Key support levels to monitor include the 60-day moving average and the half-year moving average, along with market volume conditions [1] Sector Focus - Industries to pay attention to include banking, oil and petrochemicals, steel, agriculture, animal husbandry, lithium batteries, and new materials [1]

Core Insights - The "Pioneers" list for digital RMB innovation applications was officially announced at the Suzhou Digital Finance High-Quality Development Conference on November 20, 2023, showcasing significant advancements in the digital currency sector [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The event was co-hosted by the Jiangsu Provincial Digital Finance Key Laboratory, the Yangtze River Delta Financial Research Institute, Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, and Zero One Think Tank Information Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd [1][11] - The selection process attracted numerous financial institutions and ecosystem enterprises from across the country, culminating in a comprehensive evaluation by experts [1] Group 2: Categories and Applications - The "Pioneers" list is divided into two main categories and six subfields, highlighting various innovative applications of digital RMB [1] - Notable applications include: - B-end scenarios such as cross-border payment applications using multi-central bank digital currency bridges and smart contracts for salary regulation in construction [5][6] - C-end scenarios featuring offline payment technologies for public transport and wealth management services [6][7] - G-end scenarios involving smart contracts for government procurement financing [9]

美联储内部分歧在12月政策会议前加剧，主席鲍威尔保持沉默之际，投票委员会成员立场出现明显分 化。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周五发出支持降息信号，而此前已有多位政策制定者倾向不降息。这一表态提升 了市场对12月降息的预期，联邦基金期货显示的降息概率从低于30%反弹至60%以上。 自10月29日政策会议以来，鲍威尔本人尚未公开发言。目前12名有投票权的联邦公开市场委员会成员 中，已有5人表态倾向维持利率不变，几乎形成势均力敌的局面，这意味着无论12月10日做出何种决 定，都可能出现反对票。 这一局面凸显出美联储在支持疲弱劳动力市场与遏制通胀之间的两难处境。政府关闭导致关键经济数据 发布延迟，进一步增加了政策制定的复杂性。 市场转向"数票"模式 投资者正从关注美联储整体共识转向计算个别政策制定者的投票倾向。进入10月政策会议前，市场曾认 为12月降息板上钉钉。但随着鹰派声音爆发，降息概率一度跌破30%，威廉姆斯周五的表态令局势再度 逆转。 研究显示，低异议票数能传递决策信心，确保清晰有效的沟通，但批评者认为这也会导致压制重要观点 的"群体思维"。 "在群体思维这件事上，指责我们的人请准备好。你们可能会看到联邦公开市场委 ...

海外流动性变局下的市场波动。（1）数据显示，当月非农就业人口新增 11.9 万人，远超预期的 5 万人，一举扭转 8 月修正后减少 0.4 万人的颓 势，但失业率却意外升至 4.4%的阶段性高点，高于预期的 4.3%，恰好 印证了美联储主席鲍威尔此前"更关注失业率而非绝对就业增量"的表 态，也为政策决策增添了复杂性。（2）非农数据的发布直接加剧了美 联储内部的降息分歧。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯认为，劳动力市场降温使 得近期存在降息空间，柯林斯则强调通胀风险仍存，主张对 12 月降息 保持谨慎。市场对于美联储 12 月份降息的预期也在各种表态中大幅波 动。（3）流动性变局下，全球资本市场呈现显著的结构性分化。股市 方面，美股受科技股波动与政策预期主导，英伟达等龙头利好出尽后曾 引发大幅跳水，虽因降息预期反弹但内部分化加剧。美债收益率则随降 息预期反复波动，呈现陡峭化走势，日债则早在 10 月份已经出现上行， 某种程度上解释了近期全球资本市场的集体回调。大宗商品市场中，黄 金、铜价依托避险需求与经济韧性维持高位震荡，布伦特油价则在 60 美元/桶附近寻找支撑，反映全球需求的谨慎预期。（4）综合来看，当 前全球资本市场 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 2025.11.23 报告摘要 降息预期波动加大，美元走强使全球权益回调 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251114-20251121) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 涂锦文 A0230525070006 王胜 A0230511060001 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 全球资本市场回顾：本周(20251114-20251021)美国9月新增非农就业人数录得11.9万人，预期5.1万人大幅超预期，但失业率上升至4.4%，市场对美联储的降息预期波动加大， 美元指数上行0.87%，当前点位为100.2。本周全球风险资产多数下跌，其中权益资产多数跌幅明显。1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率录得4.06%，本周下降8BPs，美元指数上行 0.87%，当前点位为100.2，弱美元暂时结束；2）权益方面，本周A股指数尽数下跌，北证50和恒生科技领跌市场；全球市场中除去胡志明和印度Sensex指数，其余市场均出现明 显下跌；3）商品方面，本周黄金和原油均出现下跌，美元计价下，Co ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced significant declines from November 17 to November 21, 2025, with the top three broad indices showing losses: Shanghai 50 (-1.87%), Shenzhen Dividend (-2.09%), and Dividend Index (-2.57%) [9] - The worst-performing indices included North China 50 (-9.77%), Wind Micro-Pan Daily Equal Weight Index (-8.22%), and CSI 2000 (-7.37%) [9] Style Indices - Among style indices, the top three performers were Large Cap Value (-0.78%), Financial (CITIC) (-1.80%), and National Value (-2.48%) [12] - The bottom three were Small Cap Growth (-6.21%), Growth (CITIC) (-6.12%), and Small Cap Value (-5.99%) [12] Sector Performance - The leading sector index was Banking (0.42%), followed by Media (-1.41%) and Household Appliances (-1.47%) [15] - The sectors with the largest declines included Electric Power Equipment (-9.92%), Comprehensive (-9.26%), and Basic Chemicals (-8.15%) [15] Market Sentiment and Predictions - The macro timing model for November 2025 scored -5, indicating a high probability of adjustment for the Wind All A Index historically [19] - Despite the negative sentiment, there is an expectation for a market rebound after reaching an emotional low, particularly if the US market stabilizes [19] Fund Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests a balanced ETF allocation strategy, anticipating a wide-ranging market fluctuation while waiting for further stabilization in overseas markets [72] - Risks include potential model failures based on historical data, macroeconomic underperformance, and unexpected macro events [4]

金工量化周报 上周申报 7 只上证科创板芯片 ETF ——ETF 市场扫描与策略跟踪（2025.11.23） 核心结论 摘要内容 全球市场概况：上周，A 股市场整体下跌，其中，北证 50 指数跌幅最大， 为 9.04%；港股市场有所下跌，恒生指数下跌 5.09%。跌幅居前的 ETF 跟 踪标的多为新能源板块指数。 ETF 新发情况：上周内地市场上报股票 ETF 19 只；新成立股票 ETF 9 只。 美国市场上周新成立权益型 ETF 17 只，其中 16 只为主动 ETF。 A 股 ETF 资金流向：上周，净流入排名前 10 的多为宽基指数 ETF；净流出 前 10 的多为周期板块指数 ETF。宽基 ETF 中，跟踪中证 500 指数的 ETF 净流入居前，跟踪 MSCI 中国 A50 互联互通指数的 ETF 净流出居前；行业 ETF 中，TMT 板块 ETF 净流入居前；主题 ETF 中，港股通科技 ETF 基金 （159101）净流入居前，金融科技 ETF（159851）净流出居前；主动 ETF 中，科创 50 增强 ETF 净流入居前，中证 2000 增强 ETF 净流出居前；Smart Beta ET ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing significant divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path for December, with previous optimism about rate cuts being tempered by recent hawkish statements from the Fed [1][4] - Michael Hartnett from Bank of America indicates that tightening liquidity is impacting multiple asset classes, suggesting that the cryptocurrency market will be the first to sense a shift in central bank policy [1][7] - Hartnett predicts that the current weakness in U.S. bank stocks is signaling a potential shift towards easing monetary policy, similar to signals observed in December 2018 [1][4] Group 2 - Hartnett forecasts that the Federal Reserve will likely initiate a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, benefiting long-duration zero-coupon bonds, Bitcoin, and mid-cap stocks [2] - Japan is facing a debt crisis, with a significant decline in 30-year government bonds and the yen nearing a 40-year low against the dollar, raising global liquidity concerns [3] - The combination of expansive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy in Japan is exacerbating the depreciation of the yen and pressure on government bonds [3] Group 3 - U.S. mid-cap stocks are showing a notable divergence in valuation and performance, indicating that the Fed's policy adjustments are lagging behind market demands [4] - The decline in bank and brokerage indices, which are sensitive to liquidity, serves as a leading indicator for potential policy shifts [4] - Hartnett emphasizes that the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, will act as an early warning system for changes in central bank policy due to its sensitivity to liquidity changes [7][8]

债权类ETF成资金避风港。 作者 | 市值风云基金研究部 编辑 | 小白 各位老铁大家好，这里是市值风云基金研究部ETF栏目，会在每周末发布ETF基金最新的市场数据和相应指数的估值数据。今天为第八十八期。 周评总共分为3大榜单。 行业中，光伏产业大跌11.3%，领跌两市，新能源汽车大跌8.3%，港股通互联网、国证芯片、中证钢铁、有色金属、创新药等板块跌超6%。 而中证银行、中证消费、中证军工、中证传媒、家用电器相对抗跌。 下跌并不可怕，我们得留有子弹抄底。从市盈率和市净率估值水平，各大指数基本上都有显著下降，下周如果继续下跌，或许是给抄底的机会。 指数估值天梯主要发布指数的ROE、PE和PB值，当前位置与近十年相比处于低估或高估，并且提供指数当前处于历史的分位数据。 ETF上涨"英雄"榜主要发布当周规模大于5亿元的ETF的涨幅前二十名。 份额增幅榜主要看当周规模超5亿元的ETF份额增加幅度前二十名。 指数估值"天梯"榜 本周市场大跌，投资者一片哀嚎。创业板指大跌超6%，领跌宽基指数，中证500、中证1000和科创50均跌逾5%。 | | | | | | 重要行业指数估值"天梯" 榜第八十八期(2025.11. ...