燕京啤酒（000729）公告，预计2025年上半年净利润为10.62亿元-11.37亿元，比上年同期的7.58亿元增 长40.00%-50.00%。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor sector is under pressure, with overall collection progress in Q2 lagging behind last year, and sales showing a year-on-year gap. The prices of major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are under pressure due to regulatory measures aimed at reducing waste [5][15] - The beverage sector, particularly beer and dairy products, is expected to show varying performance, with some companies like Qingdao Beer and Yili maintaining growth while others face challenges [6][18] - The snack food segment is experiencing strong growth driven by channel optimization and product innovation, with companies like Youfu Foods and Yanjin Beer showing significant revenue increases [19][21] Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector - Q2 performance is expected to be weak for most liquor companies, with Moutai projected to have a revenue growth of 7% year-on-year, while Wuliangye is expected to decline by 2% [16] - Regulatory measures have impacted normal consumption scenarios, leading to a cautious approach from companies as they prepare for traditional consumption peaks during festivals [15] 2. Beer Sector - Qingdao Beer is expected to see slight growth due to low sales base in Q2 2024, while Chongqing Beer is projected to maintain sales levels [17] - Yanjin Beer is benefiting from supply chain management improvements, contributing to profitability [18] 3. Dairy Products - Yili is expected to face pressure in its ambient liquid milk segment, while other products like milk powder and ice cream continue to grow [18] - New Dairy is projected to maintain its performance in low-temperature categories, with profit growth expected to outpace revenue growth [18] 4. Soft Drinks - Eastroc Beverage is anticipated to continue its steady growth in energy drinks, while new products are expected to drive higher growth rates [19] - Chengde Lululemon is expected to see improvements in gross margins despite raw material price increases [19] 5. Snack Foods - Youfu Foods is focusing on channel optimization and product innovation, expecting significant revenue and profit growth [19] - Salted Fish and other snack companies are also projected to maintain strong growth, with new product launches expected to drive performance in the second half of the year [19][21] 6. Restaurant Supply Chain - Anji Foods is expected to achieve single-digit revenue growth, while competition continues to pressure margins [20] - Qianwei Central Kitchen is projected to maintain stable revenue, with slight pressure in the small B restaurant segment [20] 7. Export Companies - Zhongchong Co. is expected to maintain high revenue growth due to positive pre-sale feedback, while Xianle Health is projected to continue its growth trend despite some fluctuations in export business [21]

Core Insights - The beer and beverage industries are experiencing unprecedented cross-industry collaboration, with beer giants entering the beverage market and beverage companies venturing into alcoholic drinks, blurring traditional boundaries [1][3][6] Market Potential - The beer industry has been in a decline since reaching its peak production in 2013, with a projected 0.6% decrease in production in 2024 compared to the previous year, and a total decline of 29.3% since 2013 [7][9] - In contrast, the beverage market is on an upward trajectory, with a total production of 18,816.9 million tons in 2024, reflecting a 7.5% year-on-year growth [9][11] - Yanjing Beer’s tea beverage segment generated revenue of 106 million yuan in 2024, marking a 48.43% increase, while Qingdao Beer’s related products saw sales growth of 74% and 47% respectively [11] Synergy Effects - Beer companies are leveraging existing distribution channels and production facilities to enter the beverage market, resulting in low-cost and high-efficiency cross-industry operations [12][13] - The production processes of beer and beverages share similarities, allowing for quick transitions in production lines and reduced capital expenditures [16] Consumer Trends - Beverage companies are tapping into the preferences of Generation Z, who seek diverse and health-conscious options, such as low-sugar and low-fat alcoholic beverages [15][18] - The cross-industry movement is driven by the need to connect emotionally with younger consumers and adapt to their evolving consumption patterns [18] Opportunities and Challenges - The cross-industry collaboration presents opportunities for both beer and beverage companies to overcome traditional market limitations and optimize resource allocation [20] - However, the beverage market is highly competitive, with established players like Coca-Cola and emerging brands like Yuanqi Forest posing significant challenges [20][22] - Beer brands must adapt their product strategies to navigate the beverage market's complexities, while beverage companies need to rethink their approach to entering the beer market [22][24]

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of implementing Xi Jinping's speech on promoting urban-rural integration and reducing disparities through the "Ten Million Project" [1] - The focus is on enhancing internal driving forces through mountain-sea cooperation and paired assistance mechanisms to activate high-quality development in Chun'an County [1] - The goal is to ensure that Chun'an County's economic growth and residents' income growth consistently exceed the provincial average [1] Group 2 - Development of specialized industries is identified as a crucial path for Chun'an County to enhance wealth for its residents, promoting the full-chain development of local specialties [2] - The encouragement of enterprises to leverage technology and channel advantages to develop and promote unique agricultural products is highlighted [2] - The need for continuous investment in research and development and technological innovation by local companies to meet market demands and enhance competitiveness is stressed [2] Group 3 - The integration of basic public services in education, healthcare, and elderly care is emphasized to improve the overall capacity of county towns and facilitate the urbanization of agricultural transfer populations [3] - The establishment of a comprehensive "common prosperity workshop" in Shuguang Community is recognized as a model for integrating various services to support employment and income generation [3] - The importance of transforming educational and training outcomes into tangible high-quality development results is underscored [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the trend towards health-conscious consumption, product innovation, and channel iteration as key drivers in the food and beverage industry [1]. - In the liquor segment, the report highlights the ongoing adjustments in management teams and anticipates a new cycle for the industry, suggesting that the sector is entering a phase of stabilization after a deep adjustment period [2]. - The beer and beverage sector is witnessing a diversification of products, with new offerings such as sugar-free drinks and unique flavors, which are expected to drive growth [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1. Leading brands with increasing market share, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye 2. High-certainty regional brands benefiting from local market advantages 3. Elastic stocks that may benefit from recovery and increased risk appetite [1][2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - The report notes the upcoming launch of new beer products and the continued popularity of craft beers, suggesting that companies like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer are well-positioned for growth [3]. - In the beverage segment, the introduction of a new sugar-free drink by Dongpeng is highlighted, aligning with the health trend and expected to attract consumers [3]. Food Sector - The approval of D-allohexose as a new food ingredient is expected to accelerate growth in the sugar substitute market, with companies like Bailong Chuangyuan being potential beneficiaries [6]. - The report also mentions the entry of Meituan's discount supermarket "Happy Monkey," which is anticipated to enhance competition in the discount retail space [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, suggesting a bottoming opportunity for investment in high-end liquor brands and potential cyclical recovery in beer and yellow wine sectors [2][11][12]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing pressure on sales due to external risks and a need for demand improvement, with expectations for the price of original box Feitian Moutai to stabilize around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The beer industry is showing signs of stabilization with a recovery in dining demand and potential for high-frequency sales tracking, suggesting a favorable outlook for the upcoming peak season [3][12]. - The yellow wine sector is witnessing a trend towards premiumization and market promotion efforts by leading brands, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [3][13]. - The snack food industry remains robust, driven by channel expansion and new product penetration, with expectations for continued high growth in Q2 [3][12]. - The soft drink sector is seeing demand improvement driven by health-oriented and functional beverages, with a positive outlook for brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [4][14]. - The seasoning industry is stabilizing at a low point, with growth relying on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant sector [5][15]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Feitian Moutai's original box price is stable between 1900-1950 RMB, with expectations for a price stabilization around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The industry is under pressure, but the market's expectations for short-term performance have been adequately priced in, suggesting a potential for recovery [12]. Beer Industry - The beer sector is expected to stabilize with a recovery in dining demand and increased focus on non-drinking channels [3][12]. - The industry is positioned for a favorable performance in the upcoming peak season, with anticipated steady mid-year earnings [3][12]. Yellow Wine Industry - The trend towards premiumization is becoming a consensus among leading brands, with increased marketing efforts and a focus on younger consumers [3][13]. Snack Food Industry - The snack food sector is maintaining high growth due to channel expansion and new product introductions, with Q2 performance expected to continue the positive trend [3][12]. Soft Drink Industry - The soft drink market is improving, driven by health and functional beverages, with brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring expected to perform well [4][14]. Seasoning Industry - The seasoning sector is stabilizing, with growth dependent on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant industry [5][15].

行 业 及 产 业 食品饮料 2025 年 07 月 05 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 看好 ——食品饮料行业周报 20250630-20250704 相关研究 《保持耐心 静待时机——食品饮料行业周 报 20250623-20250627》 2025/06/28 《保持耐心 静待时机——食品饮料行业周 报 20250616-20250620》 2025/06/21 《 白酒批价下行 食品将表现分化—— 食 品饮料行业周报 20250609-20250613 》 2025/06/14 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 严泽楠 A0230524090001 yanzn@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王子昂 (8621)23297818× wangza@swsresearch.com ⚫ 投资分析意见：传统消费的头部企业经过调整，从分红和股息角度已具备长期 投资价值； ...

Core Insights - The IWSR report indicates a significant restructuring in the Asia-Pacific alcoholic beverage market, with an overall slowdown in growth, particularly in China where baijiu sales have declined by 5% while gin sales surged by 20% [1][6] Group 1: Market Overview - The total beverage alcohol (TBA) volume in the Asia-Pacific region is projected to decrease by 2% in 2024, with a 3% decline in total value [2] - Major categories such as beer (-3%), spirits (-2%), and wine (-4%) have all experienced value declines, while ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages saw a slight increase in sales (+1%) [2] - India stands out with a TBA growth of 6%, driven by a 19% increase in ultra-premium product consumption, contrasting sharply with China's 5% decline [2][5] Group 2: Regional Performance - The Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam recorded a TBA growth of 2%, while Japan (-1%), South Korea (-1%), and Australia (-3%) faced declines [2] - The Indian market is benefiting from a recent UK-India free trade agreement, which will significantly reduce import tariffs on Scotch whisky and British gin, fostering growth in these categories [5] Group 3: Category-Specific Trends - In India, there is a notable increase in the consumption of Irish whiskey (+58%) and vodka (+17%), indicating a shift in consumer preferences beyond traditional whiskey [5] - In China, the decline in key categories such as baijiu (-5%), cognac (-14%), and Scotch whisky (-8%) is attributed to reduced formal consumption occasions [6][8] - Gin and vodka are benefiting from the rising cocktail culture, with gin sales increasing by 20% and vodka by 4% in China [6] Group 4: Future Projections - IWSR forecasts that from 2024 to 2034, beer sales in China will remain stable, while RTDs are expected to grow at a CAGR of 2%, and sparkling wine at +5% [9] - The report predicts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% for Scotch whisky and 3% for gin in India from 2024 to 2029 [5] - The overall spirits category in the Asia-Pacific is expected to decline by 1% CAGR, but excluding baijiu, the growth rate is projected at +2% [9] Group 5: Wine and Beer Trends - The wine category in the Asia-Pacific region faced a 4% decline in 2024, an improvement from the 8% drop in 2023, with still wine and other wine categories contributing to the decrease [13] - Beer sales are expected to continue declining until 2026, with a projected recovery starting in 2027, particularly in India, Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines [14][16] Group 6: RTD Growth - RTDs are positioned for strong growth in the coming years, primarily driven by Japan and Korea, with a projected CAGR of +3% from 2024 to 2029 [17] - Japan is expected to be a key driver for RTD growth, while China, Korea, and India are also anticipated to see increases in this category [17]

证券之星食品饮料行业周报：2025年6月30日-2025年7月4日，沪深300指数上涨1.54%，申万食品饮料指数上涨0.31%。前五大上涨个股分别为：煌上煌 （002695）、酒鬼酒（000799）、金字火腿（002515）、莫高股份（600543）、安记食品（603696）。 机构观点 国投证券本周观点(含个股)： 今年以来新消费(低度酒、饮料、零食、乳品)股价表现显著强于传统消费(白酒、啤酒)，股价上涨驱动为：1)渠道收入数据高增；2)新品起量预期。低基数及 原材料成本下降背景下，Q2食饮利润端压力不大，重点关注收入边际变化、产品结构、新品α。大众品配置优先级高于白酒。关注燕京啤酒（000729）、珠 江啤酒（002461）、万辰集团（300972）、卫龙美味、西麦食品（002956）、立高食品（300973）、新乳业（002946）、妙可蓝多（600882）、东鹏饮料 （605499）、李子园（605337）、莲花控股（600186）。 天风证券本周建议(含个股)： 【酒类板块】建议关注强α&持续享受集中度提升红利的酒类酒企：山西汾酒（600809）/贵州茅台（600519）/燕京啤酒等。 【大众品】 ...

Core Viewpoint - The departure of Hu Xiaohai, the chairman of China Resources Beer, has raised concerns about the company's future, especially as it faces declining revenues and profits for the first time in seven years [2][10]. Group 1: Company Performance - China Resources Beer reported a total revenue of 38.635 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.57%, and a net profit of 4.739 billion, down 8.03% [2][6]. - The beer segment generated revenue of 36.486 billion, a decline of 1% compared to the previous year, which had seen a 4.5% increase [6][10]. - The company has closed 36 breweries over the past nine years, reducing its workforce from 58,200 in 2016 to approximately 26,000 by the end of 2024, a decrease of over 50% [9]. Group 2: Leadership Changes - Hu Xiaohai, who joined China Resources Snow Beer in 2001 and held various leadership roles, including CEO and chairman, announced his resignation to focus on personal matters, confirming no disagreements with the board [2][6]. - Before his departure, Hu sold 93,800 shares, cashing out approximately 26.12 million Hong Kong dollars, reducing his holdings by 92% [21][23]. Group 3: Strategic Challenges - The company's foray into the white liquor market has not yielded expected results, with the revenue from the white liquor segment, including brands like Jinsha, only reaching 2.149 billion, a mere 4% increase year-on-year [2][16]. - The acquisition of Jinsha for 12.3 billion has not yet recouped its investment, with current revenues falling significantly short of the target [16][18]. - The white liquor segment's performance has been hampered by a lack of successful brand strategy, with the main brand contributing 70% of revenue while the secondary brand struggles [18][20].