证券研究报告 | 2025年12月23日 滔搏（06110.HK） 三季度流水下滑高单位数，折扣同比加深幅度收窄 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 纺织服饰·服装家纺 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 丁诗洁 | 0755-81981391 | dingshijie@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040004 | | 证券分析师： | 刘佳琪 | 010-88005446 | liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070003 | 事项： 公司公告：2026 财年第三季度，集团零售及批发业务之总销售金额按年同比录得高单位数下降。截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，直营门店毛销售面积较上一季末减少 1.3%，较去年同期减少 13.4%。 国信纺服观点：1)流水增长：2026 财年第三季度销售额同比下滑高单位数，线上渠道增速仍好于线下渠道， 但受基数影响，分化较上半年收窄；2）库存折扣：三季度末库存总额同比下降，与销售表现方向一致， 保持良 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Huasi Co., Ltd. (002494) reported a total of 24,710 shareholders as of December 20 [1]

从资金流向上来看，当日服装家纺板块主力资金净流出4.65亿元，游资资金净流入1.11亿元，散户资金 净流入3.54亿元。服装家纺板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，12月23日服装家纺板块较上一交易日下跌1.31%，九牧王领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3919.98，上涨0.07%。深证成指报收于13368.99，上涨0.27%。服装家纺板块个股涨跌见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 ...

九牧王(601566)今日下跌3.18%，全天换手率20.92%，成交额20.91亿元，振幅16.75%。龙虎榜数据显 示，沪股通净买入1350.92万元，营业部席位合计净卖出9084.90万元。 上交所公开信息显示，当日该股因日振幅值达16.75%上榜，沪股通净买入1350.92万元。 融资融券数据显示，该股最新（12月19日）两融余额为1.95亿元，其中，融资余额为1.94亿元，融券余 额为36.51万元。近5日融资余额合计增加2691.11万元，增幅为16.07%。融券余额合计增加4.34万元，增 幅13.50%。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，上榜的前五大买卖营业部合计成交4.14亿元，其中，买入成交额为1.68亿 元，卖出成交额为2.46亿元，合计净卖出7733.98万元。 10月29日公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季度公司共实现营业收入21.30亿元，同比下降6.02%，实现 净利润3.10亿元，同比增长129.63%。（数据宝） 具体来看，今日上榜的营业部中，沪股通为第一大买入营业部及第三大卖出营业部，买入金额为 5521.72万元，卖出金额为4170.81万元，合计净买入1350.92万元。 九牧 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the apparel and home textile sector experienced a decline of 0.88% compared to the previous trading day, with Taihu Snow leading the decline [1] - On the same day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3917.36, reflecting an increase of 0.69%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13332.73, showing an increase of 1.47% [1] Group 2 - In terms of capital flow, the apparel and home textile sector saw a net outflow of 516 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net inflow of 408 million yuan [2] - Additionally, speculative funds in the sector recorded a net inflow of 108 million yuan [2]

Group 1 - The market is entering a critical window for cross-year layout, with expectations for A-shares to resonate upward with global markets by 2026, focusing on "technology + overseas expansion" as a continuing theme [1][2] - Current market conditions are characterized by narrow fluctuations, influenced by external factors such as concerns over the AI bubble in the US and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [2][3] - Investor sentiment has recently dropped below 70, indicating a pessimistic outlook that may lead to a slight recovery in sentiment and upward market fluctuations [2] Group 2 - Industry allocation strategies include focusing on high dividend stocks, cyclical sectors, and thematic hotspots such as Hainan's duty-free shopping and nuclear power [2][4] - The anticipated "cross-year-spring" market rally is supported by early policy implementation and increased institutional investment in broad-based ETFs [4][5] - The potential for a structural outperformance in sectors like brokerage and technology is expected, driven by upcoming monetary policy changes and market liquidity improvements [7][8] Group 3 - The ongoing appreciation of the RMB is expected to influence asset allocation, with approximately 19% of industries likely to see profit margin improvements due to currency appreciation [3] - Key sectors benefiting from policy support include AI, aerospace, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while cyclical sectors like chemicals and energy metals may also see positive impacts [6][9] - The market is expected to experience a "spring rally" driven by favorable valuation levels, liquidity conditions, and catalysts that enhance risk appetite [6][12] Group 4 - The outlook for 2026 suggests a shift from a single narrative to a broader focus on physical demand and domestic policy benefits, with sectors like AI and consumer services poised for recovery [10][13] - Non-bank financials are highlighted as having significant earnings elasticity, while sectors like electric equipment and machinery are expected to benefit from AI investments and export demand [13][14] - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment before the anticipated cross-year rally, with a focus on structural opportunities aligned with policy directions and industry trends [11][14]

Investment Rating - Neutral rating for the textile and apparel industry as of December 21, 2025 [1] Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 2.2% from December 15 to December 19, 2025, surpassing the SW All A index by 2.4 percentage points [1][3] - Nike's revenue for FY26Q2 reached $12.4 billion, marking a 1% year-on-year increase, indicating a positive recovery trend in performance [2][9] - The Australian wool price index has shown significant increases, with a year-on-year rise of 39.9% as of December 18, 2025, suggesting a bullish cycle for wool prices [2][37] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The textile and apparel sector demonstrated strong performance, with the SW apparel and home textiles index increasing by 2.7%, and the SW textile manufacturing index rising by 1.6% during the same period [1][3] Recent Industry Data - Retail sales for clothing, shoes, and textiles in China totaled 1.3597 trillion yuan from January to November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [2][27] - In November 2025, China's textile and apparel exports amounted to $23.87 billion, a decline of 5.2% year-on-year, with apparel exports specifically down by 10.9% [2][31] Key Company Insights - Nike's performance recovery is expected to positively influence the manufacturing chain, with significant contributions to revenue from its supply chain partners [2][9] - The North American market for Nike has returned to growth, while the Greater China region is undergoing structural adjustments [2][9] Market Trends - The Australian wool production forecast has been revised downwards, with an expected production of 244,700 tons for the 2025/26 season, a decrease of 12.6% from previous estimates [2][9] - The apparel sector is advised to focus on companies like Bosideng, which is expected to benefit from seasonal demand and a favorable sales window due to the delayed Chinese New Year [2][10]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [6] Core Insights - Nike's FY26Q2 performance showed regional revenue changes: North America +9%, EMEA -1%, Greater China -16%, APLA -4%, with Greater China significantly dragging down overall performance due to weak foot traffic, poor new product sell-through rates, and aging inventory [3][16] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand as a priority, focusing on enhancing the supply of quality goods and services, and promoting investment recovery [4][17] - The report suggests a cautious outlook for FY26Q3, with expected revenue declines in certain regions and a focus on the "Win Now" strategy in Greater China [3][16] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - Nike's performance in FY26Q2 highlighted a significant decline in Greater China, attributed to weak customer traffic and inventory issues [3][16] - The company is implementing pilot store projects in Greater China to improve sales performance [3][16] 2. Market Review - The SW textile and apparel sector increased by 2.42%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.32% [19] - Key stocks with the highest gains included Yimin Group and Huamao Co., while stocks like Hason and *ST Bosen faced significant declines [19][24] 3. Industry Data Tracking 3.1 Raw Material Data - The China cotton price index rose by 2.96% year-to-date, while wool prices increased by 29.52% since the beginning of the year [34][40] - The USDA forecasts a 0.34% increase in total cotton production for 2025, with a slight decline in demand [46] 3.2 Export Data - Textile and apparel exports from January to November 2025 decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a notable decline in apparel exports [54] - The export value of tarpaulins and canopies fell by 21.18% in October 2025 [59] 4. Industry News - Notable developments include the opening of Descente's flagship store in Beijing and the re-entry of Spanish fast fashion brands into the Chinese market [10][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the apparel and home textile sector experienced a rise of 2.41% on December 19, with Tianchuang Fashion leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3890.45, up by 0.36%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13140.22, up by 0.66% [1] Group 2 - In terms of capital flow, the apparel and home textile sector saw a net inflow of 270 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 32.1 million yuan [2] - Speculative funds recorded a net outflow of 23.8 million yuan on the same day [2]

Core Viewpoint - Semir Apparel's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a recent increase of 2.17% despite a year-to-date decline of 13.19% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of December 19, Semir Apparel's stock price reached 5.66 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.49 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 15.249 billion CNY [1] - The stock has experienced a 3.28% increase over the last five trading days, a 2.75% decrease over the last 20 days, and a 3.66% increase over the last 60 days [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Semir Apparel reported a revenue of 9.844 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.74%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 537 million CNY, a decrease of 28.90% year-on-year [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 12.585 billion CNY, with 2.694 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 20.28% to 49,900, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 16.86% to 44,299 shares [2] - The seventh largest circulating shareholder, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, held 87.3554 million shares, a decrease of 84.364 million shares compared to the previous period [3] Group 4: Business Overview - Semir Apparel, established on February 5, 2002, and listed on March 11, 2011, specializes in apparel design, outsourcing production, marketing, and distribution, with a product focus on Semir brand casual wear and Balabala brand children's clothing [1] - The company's revenue composition includes 70.15% from children's clothing, 28.02% from casual wear, and 1.83% from other categories [1] - Semir Apparel operates within the textile and apparel industry, specifically in non-sports clothing, and is associated with various concepts such as digital economy and cross-border e-commerce [1]