Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Meituan with a 12-month price target of HK$172, indicating an upside potential of 30.9% from the current price of HK$131.40 [13]. Core Insights - Meituan is focused on defending its leadership in the food delivery market while expanding its Instashopping and Keeta initiatives internationally. The company anticipates a stabilization in the competitive landscape as subsidy levels rationalize over time [7][11]. - The report forecasts a 9% growth in order volume for Q2 2025 and an 8% growth for FY 2025, driven by industry-wide subsidies, although it expects a significant decline in food delivery EBIT due to increased user subsidies [7]. - Instashopping is projected to achieve a 27% growth in order volume for Q2 2025, with a long-term outlook of becoming a key driver for on-demand growth and local commerce profits [7]. - Keeta's expansion is gaining momentum, particularly in Saudi Arabia, with plans to enter Brazil contingent on infrastructure development. The report anticipates losses for Keeta but improving unit economics [7][11]. Summary by Sections Food Delivery Market - Meituan aims to maintain its GTV market share leadership by focusing on core user retention and diverse meal offerings. The company expects a 33% decline in food delivery EBIT for 2025 due to increased subsidies [7]. - The average daily order volume for food delivery is projected to grow from 70 million in 2024 to 77 million in 2025, with a slight decline in average order value [10]. Instashopping Growth - Instashopping is expected to see strong growth, with a projected GTV of Rmb 344 billion by 2025, reflecting a 24% year-on-year increase. The average daily order volume is anticipated to rise to 12.1 million [10]. - The report highlights that Instashopping's profitability is improving, with a small operating loss expected in Q2 2025 due to investments in marketing for shopping festivals [7]. Keeta Expansion - Keeta is experiencing strong growth in Saudi Arabia, with future expansion into Brazil dependent on infrastructure readiness. The report forecasts a loss of Rmb 10.4 billion for FY 2025 primarily due to Keeta's increased losses [7][11]. Financial Projections - Group revenue is projected to grow from Rmb 337.6 billion in 2024 to Rmb 382.5 billion in 2025, with a gross profit margin expected to stabilize around 38.4% [10]. - The report estimates adjusted EBIT for 2025 to be Rmb 30.5 billion, reflecting a decline from the previous year due to increased investments and subsidies [10].

瑞财经 吴文婷5月27日，杭州举办第七届全国青年企业家大会，京东创始人刘强东作为演讲嘉宾出席。 他在分享中提及，自己到杭州一落地便在京东外卖上点了3份外卖，跟同事吃完后一致认为每道菜非常 鲜美，杭州是世界的美食之都，也是自己见过最美的城市，没有之一。 5月26日，在美团财报电话会上，谈及京东百亿补贴对美团外卖业务造成的影响时，王兴回应称美团"将 不惜代价赢得竞争。" 据其指出，过往美团也经历了几轮非常激烈的竞争，相信这次也能获胜。美团欢迎新玩家进入这一市 场，也认可外卖行业有巨大的潜力。 值得注意的是，今年2月11日，京东外卖正式启动"品质堂食餐饮商家"招募，2025年5月1日前入驻的商 家，全年免佣金，相关举措掀开此次外卖大战的帷幕。 此后，京东与美团在外卖领域战火不断升级。4月21日，京东发布《致全体外卖骑手兄弟们的公开 信》。信中提到，近期，有竞对平台再次玩起"二选一"游戏，强迫各位骑手不能接京东平台的秒送订 单，如有违反，会采取封杀措施。 而美团方面回应，全球没有任何平台有动力、有能力去约束外卖骑手的接单选择。自外卖行业诞生以 来，美团、饿了么、百度、抖音等参与者均未限制骑手多平台工作。美团从未限制骑 ...

Core Insights - Meituan reported 1Q25 revenue of RMB86.6 billion, an 18% year-over-year increase, exceeding both internal forecasts and Bloomberg consensus estimates by 1% [1] - Adjusted net profit reached RMB10.9 billion, up 46% year-over-year, and was 12-13% higher than forecasts [1] - The core local commerce (CLC) segment generated RMB64.3 billion in revenue and RMB13.5 billion in operating profit, reflecting 18% and 39% year-over-year growth, respectively [2] Financial Performance - The operating profit for the CLC segment was 10% better than consensus estimates, primarily driven by the food delivery (FD) business due to user subsidy optimization [1] - Revenue from new initiatives was RMB22.2 billion, up 19% year-over-year, with an operating loss of RMB2.3 billion, which narrowed from RMB2.8 billion in 1Q24 [3] - The company expects solid revenue and earnings growth in the in-store hotel & travel (ISHT) segment to mitigate investment impacts in the short term [2] Strategic Initiatives - Meituan is actively responding to increasing competition in the food delivery and instant retail markets, aiming to maintain market share [2] - The company is committed to investing in international expansion to drive long-term revenue and earnings growth [1] - For 2Q25, revenue for new initiatives is estimated to grow by 21.5% year-over-year, driven by grocery retail and overseas FD business [3] Forecast Adjustments - Revenue and adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been lowered by 1-2% and 11-21%, respectively, to account for additional investments in the FD business and overseas expansion [1] - The DCF-based target price was reduced by 9% to HK$181.6, translating into a 25x 2025E adjusted PE [1]

Meituan - Investment Rating: Buy [1] - Core View: Meituan reported a solid profit beat in 1Q25, but faces challenges due to increased competition in food delivery, leading to elevated subsidies that will impact near-term profits [1] - Revenue Forecasts: 2Q core local commerce revenue growth is forecasted at +11% year-on-year, while profit is expected to decline by -35% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted EBIT: For FY25, adjusted EBIT is estimated at Rmb44.7 billion, a decrease of -15% year-on-year [1] - Target Price: The 12-month target price is lowered to HK$172 [1] Varun Beverages - Investment Rating: Initiate at Buy with a 12-month target price of Rs600 [2] - Market Position: Varun Beverages is positioned to grow in India's RTD beverages market, with Pepsi's market share increasing from 28% in 2015 to 38% in 2024 [2] - Profitability: The company has a strong track record of improving profitability in acquired territories, particularly in Africa [2] - Free Cash Flow: An inflection in free cash flow is expected over CY24-27 due to steady growth in operating cash flow and moderated capital expenditures [2] BYD - Investment Rating: Buy [4] - Promotion Impact: The impact of BYD's "618" promotion is expected to be less severe than feared, with an average price reduction of Rmb10,000 on 12 models [4] - Revenue Impact: The promotion is estimated to have a Rmb2.6 billion impact on BYD's top line, equivalent to 5% of 2025E net profit [4] - Target Price: The 12-month target price is adjusted down by 3% to Rmb424/HK$416 [4] WiseTech Global - Investment Rating: Buy [4] - Acquisition: WiseTech announced the acquisition of E2open for US$2.1 billion, which is expected to be accretive to FY27E EPS by +8% to 10% [4] - Growth Outlook: The acquisition is seen as a significant step towards WiseTech's goal of becoming the operating system for global trade and logistics [4] - Target Price: The 12-month target price is A$126 [4] Trip.com - Investment Rating: Buy [7] - Strategic Initiatives: Trip.com aims to enhance its position as a leading OTA in Asia through overseas investments and a full-funnel marketing strategy [7] - Customer Focus: The company emphasizes excellent customer service and innovation in tourism services [7] - Target Price: The 12-month target price is US$78/HK$608 [7] Mitsui Fudosan - Investment Rating: Buy [7] - Overseas Expansion: Mitsui Fudosan is looking to expand its overseas business and address rising construction costs [7] - Target Price: The 12-month target price is ¥1,500 [7] Toray Industries - Investment Rating: Buy [7] - Profit Growth: Toray expects strong profit growth supported by structural reforms and a focus on ROIC management [7] - Target Price: The 12-month target price is ¥1,030 [7]

Core Insights - JD.com has entered the food delivery market, leading to a nationwide competition that has raised concerns among regulators and industry observers [2][4] - Regulatory bodies have initiated discussions with major platforms like JD.com, Meituan, and Ele.me to address issues of low-quality and low-price competition, emphasizing the need for fair and orderly competition [4][5] - The media has called for a robust regulatory framework to prevent "involution" in the food delivery sector, advocating for adherence to commercial ethics and sustainable practices [2][4] Group 1: Regulatory Actions - Recent regulatory meetings have highlighted issues such as discrepancies between online and offline business representations, unauthorized operations, and disruptive low-price competition on JD's platform [2] - The market supervision authorities in various regions have mandated stricter merchant qualification checks for new platforms to ensure compliance and prevent chaotic competition [2][4] Group 2: Industry Challenges - New entrants in the food delivery market face operational challenges due to rapid expansion without a mature operational framework, leading to service quality issues [6][7] - The reliance on aggressive subsidy strategies has resulted in increased burdens on merchants, causing dissatisfaction and operational strain [6][8] - Technical limitations in IT systems have led to significant issues such as delivery delays and inefficient resource allocation among riders [7][8] Group 3: Historical Context - The current situation mirrors past experiences in the Chinese internet sector, where new platforms often repeat the mistakes of predecessors, leading to unsustainable business practices [11][12] - Historical cases like Yidao Yongche and Ofo illustrate the pitfalls of subsidy wars, where companies lost sight of core service quality and operational sustainability [12][13] Group 4: Recommendations for Future Practices - The industry must shift from low-quality, low-price competition to a focus on sustainable business models and core operational capabilities [16][18] - New entrants should learn from historical failures and avoid replicating ineffective strategies, instead fostering a competitive environment based on quality and service [16][18]

约谈会上，新区市场监管局通报了前期网络餐饮食品安全专项检查情况，以及 "京东外卖"平台存 在的部分商家在平台公示的经营场所图片与线下门店实际不符、部分商家超范围经营、部分商家存 在低价低质竞争扰乱市场秩序等问题。 要求"京东外卖"平台严肃整改现有问题，举一反三加强自 查自纠，并切实做到立查立改；同时，要严格落实主体责任，主动履行社会责任，加强内部管理， 依法诚信经营，公平有序竞争，切实维护消费者、平台内经营者和外卖骑手的合法权益，促进网络 餐饮规范安全有序发展。 "京东外卖"西南区域负责人表示，将引以为戒，严厉惩戒违规商家，进一步加强资质审查、信息审 核，积极推进"明厨亮灶"等工作，提升平台外卖食品安全管理水平。 资料图。本文来源： 天府新区市场监管 四川天府新区市场监管局约谈"京东外卖"平台 5月22日，四川天府新区市场监管局依法约谈"京东外卖"平台。 下一步，四川天府新区市场监管局将持续开展平台外卖食品安全监督检查工作，以线上监测、线下 检查相结合方式，持续夯实食品安全防线，守护广大人民群众网络餐饮食品安全。 ■ ...

约谈会上， 四川天府新区市场监管局 通报了前期网络餐饮食品安全专项检查情况， 以及"京东外卖"平 台存在的部分商家在平台公示的经营场所图片与线下门店实际不符、部分商家超范围经营、部分商家存 在低价低质竞争扰乱市场秩序等问题 。要求"京东外卖"平台严肃整改现有问题，举一反三加强自查自 纠，并切实做到立查立改；同时，要严格落实主体责任，主动履行社会责任，加强内部管理，依法诚信 经营，公平有序竞争，切实维护消费者、平台内经营者和外卖骑手的合法权益，促进网络餐饮规范安全 有序发展。 "京东外卖"西南区域负责人表示，将引以为戒， 严厉惩戒违规商家，进一步加强资质审查、信息审 核，积极推进"明厨亮灶"等工作，提升平台外卖食品安全管理水平 。 5月22日， 四川天府新区市场监管局依法约谈"京东外卖"平台 。 往期推荐 又 有多家银行宣布：下调！ 知名车企被警示！一年只卖出14辆车，亏了10亿元！董监高薪酬却超950 万元 下一步，四川天府新区市场监管局将持续开展平台外卖食品安全监督检查工作，以线上监测、线下检查 相结合方式，持续夯实食品安全防线，守护广大人民群众网络餐饮食品安全。 来源：大河报、"天府新区市场监管"微信公众 ...

Core Insights - Meituan's overseas food delivery platform Keeta is set to launch in Brazil, with a planned investment of $1 billion over the next five years to support this initiative [1] - Keeta has already established a significant presence in Saudi Arabia, capturing 20% market share and planning to expand to all major cities by the end of the year [1][2] - The exit of Deliveroo from the Hong Kong market is seen as a sign of Keeta's success, as it now faces only foodpanda as a major competitor [1][2] Expansion Strategy - Keeta's expansion into Brazil follows its previous launches in Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, indicating a strategic push into international markets [1] - The company aims to replicate its successful strategies from Hong Kong in other regions, although the adaptability of these methods remains to be seen [2][3] Competitive Landscape - The exit of Deliveroo from Hong Kong highlights the competitive pressures in the food delivery market, with Keeta leveraging aggressive discounting strategies to gain market share [4][6][7] - Keeta's rapid growth in Hong Kong, achieving a 43% market share within a year, is attributed to its substantial subsidies and effective pricing strategies [8][9] Pricing and Subsidy Tactics - Keeta's initial strategy in Hong Kong included a $1.3 million promotional campaign to attract new users, offering significant discounts and incentives [9] - The platform's lower commission rates compared to competitors have attracted many local restaurants, further enhancing its market position [10][11] Service Quality and User Experience - Keeta has implemented a standardized service model that emphasizes timely deliveries and customer service, setting it apart from competitors [12][15] - The company has adopted a unique incentive structure for delivery personnel, focusing on rewards for timely deliveries rather than penalties [13][15] Challenges Ahead - Despite its successes, Keeta faces challenges in building brand loyalty and relationships with local merchants, particularly in a market where traditional ordering methods are still prevalent [16][17] - The company must navigate regulatory concerns regarding labor practices in Hong Kong, which could impact its operational model [21][22] Future Prospects - Keeta's future growth in Saudi Arabia and Brazil will depend on its ability to adapt its strategies to local market conditions and consumer behaviors [24] - The company aims to enhance its product and operational capabilities while maintaining a customer-centric approach to ensure long-term success in diverse markets [24]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - Delivery Hero's Baemin is launching a bundled offering with the OTT platform Tving, enhancing its value proposition into a broader lifestyle platform [3] - The Baemin Club, which includes unlimited free food delivery and grocery discount coupons, is being expanded to include Tving for an additional fee, positioning Baemin competitively against Coupang's Wow Membership [3] - Coupang Eats has seen significant growth, with monthly active users (MAUs) reaching 10.44 million in April 2025, up from 3.2 million a year ago, while Coupang Play reached 6.82 million MAUs [3] - By integrating Tving and pursuing further content and commerce partnerships, Baemin aims to create a compelling and cost-effective ecosystem for its subscribers [3] Summary by Sections Delivery Hero and Baemin - Baemin is set to roll out the Baemin Club-Tving bundle on June 2, allowing users to access Tving for an additional W3,500/month on top of the Baemin Club fee [3] - The Baemin Club was launched in September 2024 and already offers benefits like unlimited free food delivery and grocery discount coupons [3] Competitive Landscape - Coupang's Wow Membership, priced at W7,890/month, is gaining traction with bundled access to Coupang Play and Eats delivery, featuring exclusive content like HBO and Premier League [3] - The competitive dynamics are highlighted by the significant growth in Coupang Eats MAUs, indicating a strong market presence [3] Strategic Positioning - Baemin's strategy to integrate Tving and enhance its subscription model reflects a shift towards a more comprehensive lifestyle offering, aiming to attract and retain customers in a competitive market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of AI on employment, highlighting the personal experience of a software engineer who lost his job and faced significant challenges in finding new employment due to the rise of AI technologies and changing job market dynamics [3][12][30]. Group 1: Job Market Dynamics - The author has submitted nearly 800 job applications over the past year without receiving any offers, illustrating the competitive and challenging job market for tech professionals [4][30]. - The job application process has become increasingly difficult, with AI filtering systems potentially screening out qualified candidates based on outdated or insufficient keywords in resumes [9][10]. - The author faced age discrimination during interviews, where younger interviewers undervalued his extensive experience and knowledge in modern technologies [10][30]. Group 2: Personal Financial Struggles - Despite owning multiple properties, the author is living in a trailer due to financial strain after losing a $150,000 annual salary job [5][6][30]. - The author has resorted to gig economy jobs like DoorDash to make ends meet, often earning less than $200 a day [3][19][30]. - The author has faced bureaucratic challenges with unemployment benefits, receiving inadequate support while being threatened with legal action over business income from Airbnb rentals [21][30]. Group 3: Adaptation and Skill Development - The author has attempted to adapt by learning new AI-related skills and creating AI-generated code libraries, but this has not translated into job offers [13][30]. - Efforts to pivot into different roles or lower-paying positions have also been met with rejection, indicating a broader issue in the job market for experienced professionals [15][16][30]. - The author is exploring alternative business ventures, such as starting a pressure washing company, but lacks the necessary funds for initial investment [17][30]. Group 4: Societal Implications - The article raises concerns about the societal impact of AI on employment, suggesting that the current economic system fails to provide adequate support for displaced workers [31][30]. - The author argues for a reevaluation of labor value and the implementation of universal basic income as a potential solution to the challenges posed by AI [31][30].