随着新能源成为我国第一大装机电源，以及电力现货市场的发展，煤电、气电、抽水蓄能等调节性电源 的电价机制迎来新规。 近日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局联合对外发布《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》（下文简称 《通知》），分类完善煤电、天然气发电、抽水蓄能、新型储能容量电价机制，还明确提出有序建立发 电侧可靠容量补偿机制，对机组可靠容量根据顶峰能力按统一原则进行补偿。 比如，随着煤电发电小时数的下降，明确将通过容量电价回收煤电机组固定成本的比例提升至不低于 50%；为加强对抽水蓄能企业的成本约束，明确633号文件后开工建设的电站，由省级价格部门按弥补 平均成本的原则制定省级统一的容量电价；对于电网侧独立新型储能，各地以当地煤电容量电价标准为 基础，根据顶峰能力按一定比例折算，并考虑电力市场建设进展等建立容量电价机制。 《通知》明确指出，电力现货市场连续运行后，省级价格主管部门会同相关部门适时建立可靠容量补偿 机制，对机组可靠容量按统一原则进行补偿。所谓可靠容量，是指机组在全年系统顶峰时段能够持续稳 定供电的容量。 国家发展改革委、国家能源局有关负责人表示，政策出台后，对居民、农业用户电价水平没有影响，仍 执行现行 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 本报记者 杜雨萌 2月2日，中国电力企业联合会发布的《2025—2026年度全国电力供需形势分析预测报告》（以下简称 《报告》）显示，预计2026年全社会用电量同比增长5%—6%；太阳能发电装机规模将首次超过煤电装 机规模。 从2025年我国电力消费需求情况看，《报告》显示，全社会用电量规模实现两大突破：一是我国年度全 社会用电量规模历史性突破10万亿千瓦时大关，达10.37万亿千瓦时，成为全球首个达到这一规模的单 一经济体。二是月度用电量规模首次突破1万亿千瓦时大关，7月份我国全社会用电量达到1.02万亿千瓦 时，这也是全球范围内首次。 "10万亿千瓦时的突破是三大产业及居民生活用电协同支撑的结果，且呈现结构优化的鲜明特征。"中国 电力企业联合会统计与数智部主任侯文捷解释称，一方面，第二产业仍是用电"基本盘"，贡献主要力 量。2025年，第二产业用电量6.64万亿千瓦时，占比64.0%，对用电增长的贡献率达47.5%，拉动增长 2.4个百分点，彰显工业经济对电力需求的坚实支撑。另一方面，新质生产力加快培育，新型基础设施 建设驱动相关行 ...

"按照北京电网'十五五'规划，工程将打通绿电跨省输送、高效消纳的新通道，外电源引自北京新航城 500千伏变电站，可承接张北—雄安1000千伏特高压输电通道下送的清洁电力，将张家口地区的风电和 光伏等清洁能源直接送入北京的负荷中心，助力首都能源绿色低碳转型。"国网北京电力建设部建设处 处长邹禹说。 据悉，"十五五"时期，北京将同步推进怀柔科学城、CBD、房山(增容)、凤凰岭、英城等500千伏输变 电工程规划建设工作，构建500千伏立体交叉双环网，进一步提升北京电网韧性水平，提高供电灵活性 与可靠性。 本报北京电(记者潘俊强)近日，在北京丽泽金融商务区，打桩机桩锤重重落下，沉浑有力的撞击声响 起，桩基被稳稳打入，标志着北京丰台500千伏输变电工程正式开工建设。该工程也是北京市"十五 五"时期首个新建的500千伏电网工程，将显著提升北京南部电网韧性水平和受电能力，对北京市持续优 化投资结构、大力发展高精尖产业等提供可靠电力支撑。 北京丰台500千伏输变电工程是北京市"十五五"电网重点项目，也是目前距离首都核心区最近的500千伏 电网工程，投运后将成为服务首都核心区及丽泽金融商务区等重点区域的重要电力枢纽，为中国数据 ...

报告预计，2026年全国电力供需总体平衡，局部地区高峰时段电力供需偏紧，供应不足部分可通过跨省 跨区余缺互济后基本消除。度夏期间，西南、华中、华东等区域部分省份电力供需平衡偏紧；度冬期 间，各地电力供需基本平衡。 本报北京2月2日电(记者廖睿灵)中国电力企业联合会2日举行新闻发布会，会上发布的《2025—2026年 度全国电力供需形势分析预测报告》预计，2026年太阳能发电装机规模将首次超过煤电装机规模。到 2026年底，风电和太阳能发电合计装机规模将达到总发电装机规模的一半。 报告认为，在"双碳"目标指引下，我国新能源继续保持较大投产规模，预计2026年全年新增发电装机有 望超过4亿千瓦，其中，新增新能源发电装机有望超过3亿千瓦；新增有效发电能力1亿千瓦左右，与最 大负荷增量基本持平。预计到2026年底，全国发电装机容量达到43亿千瓦左右，其中非化石能源发电装 机27亿千瓦，占总装机比重63%左右，煤电装机占总装机比重将降至31%左右。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing importance and functionality of virtual power plants in Shanghai, particularly during peak electricity demand periods caused by cold weather, highlighting their role in balancing supply and demand while providing economic benefits to participating companies [1][2]. Group 1: Virtual Power Plant Functionality - Virtual power plants aggregate distributed energy resources such as solar, storage, and adjustable loads to achieve coordinated control, enabling functions like generation, peak shaving, and frequency regulation [1][2]. - The system developed by China Mobile Shanghai Industrial Research Institute and Zhejiang Datang allows for intelligent scheduling of dispersed industrial power loads and storage, significantly enhancing the efficiency of electricity management [2][3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The integration of AI and 5G technologies has accelerated the development of virtual power plants, enabling Shanghai to achieve a power dispatch capacity equivalent to a medium-sized physical power plant during the summer of 2025 [2][3]. - An AI-driven prediction algorithm has been developed to improve load forecasting accuracy, achieving a real-time prediction error of less than 3% and a long-term market price prediction accuracy exceeding 85% [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact on Participating Companies - Companies participating in the virtual power plant model have transitioned from a passive electricity usage model to an active profit-generating model, receiving subsidies and reducing electricity costs [3][4]. - The virtual power plant has expanded its network to cover multiple regions, attracting over 80 industrial enterprises, which enhances the overall stability and efficiency of the electricity grid [3][4]. Group 4: Future Development and Recommendations - Experts suggest further integration of AI, digital twin technology, and edge computing to enhance load forecasting precision and decision-making speed within virtual power plants [4]. - There is a call for the establishment of a collaborative intelligent control architecture and increased support for technological innovation to foster a win-win industrial ecosystem [4]. Group 5: Overall Contribution to Energy Transition - The virtual power plant is seen as a crucial element in supporting energy transition and ensuring stable urban operations, contributing significantly to the invisible dynamics of electricity supply in Shanghai [5].

Core Insights - The article discusses the operational readiness of virtual power plants in Shanghai as the city faces a peak electricity demand due to a cold wave in 2026, highlighting the proactive measures taken by energy companies to manage power supply shortages [1][2]. Group 1: Virtual Power Plant Operations - Virtual power plants aggregate distributed energy resources such as solar, storage, and adjustable loads to provide coordinated control and support grid stability [1][2]. - The collaboration between China Mobile Shanghai Industrial Research Institute and Zhejiang Datang has led to the development of a comprehensive virtual power plant management system, leveraging 5G technology [2][3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The virtual power plant system utilizes AI-driven predictive algorithms to enhance load forecasting accuracy, achieving a real-time prediction error of less than 3% and a long-term price prediction accuracy exceeding 85% [3][4]. - The integration of various data sources, including meteorological and economic data, has improved the operational efficiency of the virtual power plant, allowing for better resource allocation and demand response [3][4]. Group 3: Market Impact and Benefits - Over 80 industrial enterprises have joined the virtual power plant network, transitioning from a passive electricity consumption model to an active participation model that allows them to earn subsidies and reduce costs [3][4]. - The article emphasizes the potential of virtual power plants to balance grid load fluctuations, support renewable energy integration, and optimize energy resource allocation, contributing to energy transition and urban stability [4].

Core Insights - The China Electricity Council (CEC) predicts that by 2026, the national electricity consumption will reach between 10.9 trillion to 11 trillion kilowatt-hours, representing a year-on-year growth of 5% to 6% [1] - By the end of 2026, the installed capacity of solar power is expected to surpass that of coal power for the first time, with the combined installed capacity of wind and solar power reaching half of the total installed capacity [1] Group 1: Electricity Consumption - In 2025, China's total electricity consumption surpassed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time, reaching 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours, a 5% year-on-year increase and approximately double that of ten years ago [2] - High-end manufacturing has emerged as a new growth point for electricity consumption, with the internet-related services and charging industries experiencing year-on-year growth rates exceeding 30% and 50%, respectively [2] Group 2: Supply Side Developments - By the end of 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China is expected to reach 3.89 billion kilowatts, with non-fossil energy sources accounting for 61.7% of the total installed capacity [2] - A total of 46 ultra-high voltage projects have been completed, enhancing cross-provincial and cross-regional transmission capacity to over 370 million kilowatts [2] Group 3: Technological and Governance Innovations - The pace of technological innovation in the electricity sector is accelerating, with advancements in renewable energy, advanced nuclear power, large-capacity hydropower, and clean coal technologies being internationally leading [3] - The establishment of a national unified electricity market is progressing, with improvements in market systems for medium- and long-term trading, spot trading, auxiliary services, and green electricity certificates [3]

Core Insights - The report predicts that by 2026, China's total electricity consumption will grow by 5%-6% year-on-year, with solar power generation capacity expected to surpass coal power capacity for the first time [1][3]. Group 1: Electricity Consumption - In 2025, China's total electricity consumption is projected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, reaching 10.37 trillion kilowatt-hours, marking the first time any single economy has achieved this milestone [1][2]. - Monthly electricity consumption is expected to surpass 1 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time, with July 2025 seeing consumption reach 1.02 trillion kilowatt-hours [1]. Group 2: Sector Contributions - The second industry remains the primary contributor to electricity consumption, accounting for 6.64 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025, which is 64.0% of total consumption, contributing 47.5% to the growth [2]. - New infrastructure developments in sectors such as big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, 5G networks, and industrial internet are driving rapid growth in electricity consumption, with internet data services expected to grow at an annual rate of 35.9% from 2021 to 2025 [2]. Group 3: Power Generation Capacity - By the end of 2025, China's total installed power generation capacity is expected to reach 3.89 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, with an average annual growth rate of 12.0% during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]. - Wind and solar power are projected to account for 80.2% of the newly installed generation capacity, with a total of 4.4 billion kilowatts added in 2025 [3]. - By 2026, it is anticipated that over 4 billion kilowatts of new generation capacity will be added, with more than 3 billion kilowatts coming from renewable sources, and solar power capacity expected to exceed coal power capacity for the first time [3].

Group 1 - The core inquiry from investors is whether the company can generate new revenue from its virtual power plant by 2026 and the estimated amount of such revenue [2] - The company, Aotuxun (002227.SZ), responded that its virtual power plant business is still in the early stages, and revenue is highly correlated with grid scheduling demands and policies, indicating uncertainty in growth [2]

2026.02. 02 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 2025年，我国全社会用电量历史性突破10万亿千瓦时。电力消费稳中向好，电力供应持续绿色低碳转型，电力供需总体平衡。 中国电力企业联合会2月2日发布《2025~2026年度全国电力供需形势分析预测报告》（下称《报告》）。 《报告》预计，2026年全社会用电量同比增长5%~6%，全国电力供需总体平衡。今年太阳能发电装机规模将首次超过煤电装机规模，年底风电和太阳 能发电合计装机规模达到总发电装机的一半。全年新增发电装机有望超过4亿千瓦，其中新增新能源发电装机有望超过3亿千瓦。 社会用电量"两大突破" 2025年我国全社会用电量同比增长5.0%；"十四五"期间，全社会用电量年均增长6.6%，比"十三五"年均增速（5.7%）提高0.9个百分点。 《报告》显示，我国全社会用电量规模在2025年实现两大突破：一是我国年度全社会用电量规模首次突破10万亿千瓦时大关，达10.37万亿千瓦时。 二是月度用电量规模首次突破1万亿千瓦时大关，7月我国全社会用电量达到1.02万亿千瓦时，这也是全球范围内首次。 中电联统计与数智部主任侯文捷分析，从10万亿千瓦时构成看，这一突破是三大 ...