本周（9 月 1 日至 7 日）全球市场迎来三大关键事件美国 8 月非农就业报告、中国抗战胜利日阅兵及上 海合作组织天津峰会。这些事件可能显著影响金融市场走势，尤其是黄金、外汇及股指的短期波动格 局。UNFX 为您解析核心动态： 一、美国非农数据：美联储降息预期的终极考验 时间：9 月 5 日（周五） 市场影响：本次非农数据被视为美联储 9 月议息会议前最关键的参考指标，其数据表现将直接左右市场 对美联储后续货币政策的预期。 预期值：经济学家预测 8 月非农就业人数仅增加 7.5 万，若该预期成真，这将是 2020 年以来最疲弱的 非农就业数据；同时，失业率可能从 4.2% 小幅上升。 潜在情景： 若数据弱于预期：可能进一步强化市场对美联储 9 月降息的预期（目前掉期市场定价降息概率已达 90%）。从资产影响来看，这一情景将利好黄金、美债等避险与低风险资产，但可能对美元汇率及股票 等风险资产形成压制。 若数据显著强于预期：则可能动摇当前市场普遍认可的降息逻辑，进而推动美元指数反弹，同时对近期 持续上涨的美股走势构成挑战。 后续关联事件：除本次非农数据外，后续还有多个关键事件值得关注，包括 9 月 9 日非农历 ...

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military sector is experiencing a significant decline, with the defense military ETF (512810) dropping by 3.7% and continuing to trade at a premium, indicating strong buying interest despite the downturn [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 2, the defense military sector led the market decline, with the ETF (512810) falling 3.7% and trading volume exceeding 1.2 billion yuan [1]. - The ETF has seen over 225 million yuan in net subscriptions in the past six days, suggesting strong buying momentum [1]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with major indices experiencing declines, particularly affecting high-growth sectors like defense and military [3]. Group 2: Technical and Fundamental Analysis - The defense military sector has been on an upward trend for four consecutive months since May, leading to a necessary technical correction [3]. - Despite short-term volatility, the continuous inflow of funds into the defense military ETF (512810) indicates potential for future growth, driven by fundamental recovery rather than just event-driven catalysts [4]. - As of September 1, the financing balance for the ETF reached a historical high of 39.1 million yuan, reflecting increased leverage in the sector [5]. Group 3: Earnings and Future Outlook - In the first half of 2025, 67 stocks within the defense military ETF reported profits, with over 84% achieving positive net income growth, and 11 stocks seeing net profit growth exceeding 100% [6]. - The upcoming quarters (Q3-Q4 2025) are expected to see continued fulfillment of military orders, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" likely to provide further direction for the sector [6]. - The ETF encompasses a diverse range of themes, including commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, large aircraft, deep-sea technology, military AI, and controllable nuclear fusion, making it an efficient tool for investing in core defense military assets [6].

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry sector is experiencing significant capital inflow, with the "August 1" defense military ETF (512810) seeing a net subscription of 94.59 million yuan on September 1, marking six consecutive days of capital accumulation totaling over 225 million yuan [1][5]. Group 1: Market Activity - As of September 1, the financing balance of the defense military ETF (512810) has risen to 39.1 million yuan, setting a new historical high [3]. - The ETF has been actively attracting funds, indicating strong investor interest in the defense sector [1][5]. Group 2: Performance and Outlook - The current market rally in the defense sector is attributed to a recovery in the fundamental performance, with expectations for continued growth driven by military orders anticipated to materialize in Q3 and Q4 of 2025 [5]. - In the mid-year reports for 2025, all 79 constituent stocks of the defense military ETF disclosed their earnings, with 67 stocks reporting profits, representing over 84% of the total [5]. - Among these, 21 stocks exhibited a year-on-year net profit growth exceeding 30%, with 11 stocks showing over 100% growth. Notably, Aerospace Science and Technology's net profit surged over 21 times, leading the sector [5][6].

Group 1 - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests a focus on sectors with solid industrial logic, such as communication equipment, semiconductors, electronic hardware, solid-state batteries, innovative pharmaceuticals, national defense and military industry, and robotics, due to favorable liquidity expectations [1] - The advantages of Chinese manufacturing are highlighted, with a recommendation to pay attention to white goods, construction machinery, and power grid equipment that have established overseas production capacity and are benefiting from trade growth with non-US economies [1] - The recovery in capital market sentiment is expected to boost financial performance, leading to a focus on insurance and brokerage firms [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" trend is guiding supply contraction in various industries, with policy efforts expected to stabilize demand, particularly in the photovoltaic sector [1] - There may be differentiation within dividend sectors, with an emphasis on high-quality cash flow, volatility, and dividend certainty, suggesting investments in leading consumer stocks, cyclical leaders, and telecommunications [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall profitability growth of A-share listed companies is slowing down due to continuous price declines and weak effective demand, despite some improvements in revenue [1][2] Profitability Analysis - The net profit growth of listed companies has narrowed, with quarterly net profit growth rates for 2024Q4, 2025Q1, and 2025Q2 being -15.7%, 3.2%, and 1.2% respectively [2] - Non-financial oil and petrochemical sectors show even more significant declines, with quarterly net profit growth rates of -50.2%, 4.5%, and -0.1% for the same periods [2] Revenue Trends - A-share companies have seen an improvement in quarterly revenue growth compared to 2025Q1, with growth rates of 1.4%, -0.3%, and 0.4% for 2024Q4, 2025Q1, and 2025Q2 respectively [2] - Non-financial oil and petrochemical sectors also show improved revenue growth rates of 1.2%, 0.5%, and 0.9% for the same quarters [2] Sector Performance - Key sectors showing improved profitability include healthcare, midstream manufacturing, and financial real estate, with information technology leading in profit growth [4] - The quarterly profit growth rates for 2025Q2 are ranked as follows: Information Technology > Midstream Manufacturing > Financial Real Estate > Healthcare > Utilities > Consumer Services > Resource Products [4] Cash Flow and Capital Expansion - Free cash flow as a percentage of market value and revenue is steadily increasing, with operating cash flow showing high growth, particularly from midstream manufacturing [5] - Capital expenditure growth has declined since reaching a peak in Q2 2023, with limited recovery in demand and low corporate capital expansion willingness [5] Focus Areas for Growth - Industries with high or improving profit growth in 2025Q2 include TMT (software development, gaming, components, communication devices, other electronics, semiconductors, consumer electronics), mid-to-high-end manufacturing, and certain resource products [6]

Core Viewpoint - Guokexun Military Industry announced that it will hold a semi-annual performance briefing on September 12, 2025 [1] Company Summary - The company is scheduled to present its performance results for the first half of 2025 [1]

Group 1 - A-shares opened positively on September 1, with only 7 out of 31 Shenwan primary industries declining, including the defense and military industry [1] - The defense and military ETF (512810) reached a 3.5-year high before experiencing a decline of 0.53%, with a trading range of 3.15% throughout the day [1] - There is a noticeable influx of bullish sentiment, as the defense and military ETF traded at a premium, indicating strong buying interest [1][3] Group 2 - The defense and military ETF (512810) saw significant trading volume, with a total turnover of over 2 billion CNY, marking the second-highest in the past five months [1][4] - In August, the ETF accumulated a total trading volume of 30.2 billion CNY, a more than 50% increase compared to July, setting a historical record [4] - As of the end of August, the financing balance for the ETF reached 34.61 million CNY, a new historical high [5] Group 3 - The performance of constituent stocks within the defense and military ETF showed a shift in capital, with funds moving away from recently popular satellite internet themes [3] - Key stocks such as China Shipbuilding and Changcheng Military Industry reached new highs, with respective price increases of 4.12% and 15.32% [3] - Over 84% of the 79 constituent stocks reported profits in the first half of 2025, with half of them achieving positive net profit growth [6] Group 4 - The defense and military sector is expected to see continued momentum due to fundamental recovery, with military orders anticipated to be fulfilled in Q3 and Q4 of 2025 [6] - The sector covers a wide range of themes, including commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, large aircraft, deep-sea technology, military AI, and controllable nuclear fusion [7]

核心结论 行情回顾：1）指数层面：8 月 29 日北证 A 股成交金额达 323.0 亿元，较上一 交易日增加 17.7 亿元，北证 50 指数收盘价为 1574.25，上涨 1.28%，PE_TTM 为 76.91 倍。北证专精特新指数收盘价为 2739.33，上涨 0.52%。2）个股层面： 当日北交所 274 家公司中 147 家上涨，4 家平盘，123 家下跌。其中涨幅前五 的个股分别为：荣亿精密（30.0%）、德瑞锂电（19.1%）、捷众科技（16.5%）、 科达自控（14.9%）、贝特瑞（13.6%）；跌幅前五的个股分别为：曙光数创（-8.9%）、 智新电子（-7.3%）、中航泰达（-7.3%）、方盛股份（-6.9%）、巴兰仕（-6.6%）。 新闻汇总：1）国家数据局局长刘烈宏：持续打造便捷高效、自主安全、世 界领先的国家级数据基础设施：刘烈宏指出，面向"十五五"，国家数据局 将进一步聚焦高质量的标准构建、大规模的设施部署、市场化的生态运营， 持续打造便捷高效、自主安全、世界领先的国家级数据基础设施，有效支撑 数字经济发展、科技创新和全国统一大市场建设。 重点公告：1）无锡晶海：公司本次以闲置自有 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend today, with major indices mostly rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.46% to close at 3875.53 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 1.05% to 12828.95 points. The Sci-Tech 50 index gained 1.18% to reach 1357.15 points, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.29% to 2956.37 points. Overall, 3206 stocks rose, 2085 fell, and 133 remained unchanged, with a total trading volume of 27.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 483.37 million yuan from the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, telecommunications, comprehensive services, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceutical biology, electronics, and machinery equipment led the gains. Conversely, non-bank financials, banking, household appliances, transportation, automotive, and defense industries experienced declines [1][2]. Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included optical modules (CPO), gold and jewelry, optical chips, cobalt mines, advanced packaging, CRO, innovative drugs, optical communications, the SMIC industrial chain, generic drugs, weight loss drugs, high turnover, selected rare metals, germanium-gallium-antimony ink, and semiconductor equipment [2].

Core Insights - Public fund institutions have shown increased enthusiasm for A-share company research, with 160 institutions participating in 3,365 research activities last week, marking an 85.20% week-on-week increase [1][2]. Group 1: Company Research Highlights - Tianfu Communication topped the research list with 87 inquiries, reflecting a significant interest from public funds [1][2]. - The electronic sector had the highest representation in the top ten researched stocks, with three companies: Luxshare Precision (43 inquiries), Shenghong Technology (42 inquiries), and Shenzhen South Circuit (39 inquiries) [1][2]. - The medical and biological sector also received considerable attention, with Mindray Medical and Aibo Medical being researched 71 and 48 times, respectively [1][3]. Group 2: Industry Focus - The electronic industry was the most researched sector, with 50 companies receiving a total of 520 inquiries [2][3]. - The medical and biological sector closely followed, with 45 companies being researched a total of 519 times, indicating a strong interest in both sectors [3]. - Other sectors such as power equipment, machinery, computers, and automobiles also saw significant research activity, each with no less than 200 inquiries [3]. Group 3: Institutional Participation - A total of 112 public fund institutions were active in A-share company research last week, with Bosera Fund leading with 73 inquiries, primarily focused on the electronic sector [3]. - Harvest Fund followed closely with 70 inquiries, with a notable interest in both medical and electronic sectors [3].