2025 年 12 月 24 日 尿素：短期震荡，中期中枢上移 标 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 | 杨鈜汉 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 项 目 | | 收盘价 | 项目名称 （元/吨） | 昨日数据 1,721 | 前日数据 1,698 | 变动幅度 2 3 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,713 | 1,700 | 1 3 | | 尿素主力 | | | 成交量 （手） | 178,146 | 95,294 | 82852 | | 期货市场 | （05合约） | | 持仓量 （手） | 179,049 | 169,174 | 9875 | | | | | 仓单数量 （吨） | 10,532 | 10,881 | -349 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 610,495 | 323,993 | 2 ...

证券之星消息，截至2025年12月23日收盘，亚钾国际(000893)报收于47.29元，上涨0.68%，换手率 0.91%，成交量7.38万手，成交额3.47亿元。 12月23日的资金流向数据方面，主力资金净流出4435.61万元，占总成交额12.77%，游资资金净流出 846.63万元，占总成交额2.44%，散户资金净流入5282.24万元，占总成交额15.21%。 近5日资金流向一览见下表： | | | | | 日期 收盘价 涨跌幅 主力净流入 主力净占比 游资净点比 游资净占比 散户净占比 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-12-23 | 47.29 0.68% | | -4435.61万 | -12.77% | -846.63万 | -2.44% | 5282.24万 | - 15.21% | | 2025-12-22 | 46.97 0.11% | | -3643.85万 | -10.12% | -2325.56万 | -6.46% | 5969.41万 | 16.58% | | 202 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Urea Daily Report on December 23, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated higher, closing at 1721 (+21/+1.24%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices remained stable with general trading. Prices in different regions were: Henan 1620 - 1650 yuan/ton, Shandong small particles 1680 - 1690 yuan/ton, Hebei small particles 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small particles 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton, Anhui small particles 1650 - 1660 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1540 - 1590 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - On December 23, the daily production of the urea industry was 18.98 tons, a decrease of 0.25 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 1.38 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 78.49%, a 0.62% increase from 77.87% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Market Conditions: Mainstream factory prices were stable, market sentiment cooled, and trading weakened. Different regions had different situations. Shandong's prices were weakly stable, Henan's prices followed the decline, and the delivery area's prices were firm [5] - Supply: Domestic gas - fired plants began maintenance, and the daily output dropped to around 190,000 tons but remained high. India tendered again for a total of 150 tons with a February 2nd shipping date, but the impact was limited due to no new quotas in China [5] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer in the Central and Northeast regions was stable. In Henan, environmental protection led to large - scale shutdowns until the end of the month, and overall demand for compound fertilizer slowed. The progress of off - season storage enterprises reached over 70%, and future procurement would slow down [5] - Outlook: In the short term, with the impact of the Indian tender fading and limited export quotas, the downstream resisted high prices, and the trading was weak. In the medium term, the supply - demand fundamentals were still relatively loose, and after price increases in some regions, downstream acceptance decreased. The market rumor of export news improved trading in some low - price areas, but overall, a short - selling strategy was recommended [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short 05 contract [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Wait and see [9]

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：利好有限，基本面弱稳 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 23 日 2025 年 12 月 23 日，尿素仓单数量 10532 张，环比上个交易日-349 张，其 中，嘉施利平原（云图控股 UR）-100 张，眉山新都（云图控股 UR）-300 张，辽 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 宁化肥（爱普控股 UR）-215 张，辽宁化肥+21 张， 吉林宇源（中农控股 UR） +250 张，衡水棉麻-5 张。 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 现货方面：现货报价稳定，主要以前期订单发送为主。山东、河南及河北 尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1610-1700 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低 端，河北工厂报价偏高端。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 【行情分析】 今日盘面高开高走，日内上涨。现货报价稳定，主要以前期订 ...

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——地产"优等生"受困20亿元到期债务，首次债务展期仍在博弈，明年还有超 百亿元公开债到期 （记者 曾健辉） 每经AI快讯，云图控股（SZ 002539，收盘价：11.6元）12月23日晚间发布公告称，成都云图控股股份 有限公司于2025年12月22日召开第七届董事会第五次会议，审议通过了《关于2026年使用闲置资金进行 投资理财的议案》，同意公司及子公司在确保正常经营和资金安全的前提下，使用不超过15亿元人民币 的闲置自有资金进行投资理财。 2025年1至6月份，云图控股的营业收入构成为：化肥行业占比63.35%，贸易占比18.85%，化工行业占 比12.57%，其他行业占比5.23%。 截至发稿，云图控股市值为140亿元。 ...

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——地产"优等生"受困20亿元到期债务，首次债务展期仍在博弈，明年还有超 百亿元公开债到期 （记者 王晓波） 2025年1至6月份，云图控股的营业收入构成为：化肥行业占比63.35%，贸易占比18.85%，化工行业占 比12.57%，其他行业占比5.23%。 截至发稿，云图控股市值为140亿元。 每经AI快讯，云图控股（SZ 002539，收盘价：11.6元）12月23日晚间发布公告称，公司第七届第五次 董事会会议于2025年12月22日以通讯方式召开。会议审议了《关于召开2026年第一次临时股东会的议 案》等文件。 ...

截至2025年12月22日收盘，四川美丰(000731)报收于6.62元，下跌0.3%，换手率0.59%，成交量3.24万 手，成交额2147.11万元。 董秘最新回复 投资者： 作为化肥企业，公司采用天然气作为原料，遭遇着"气涨价、产品降价"的双重打击，在2025 年与煤化工企业，成本端有非常严峻，产品端又在同一层次，长期下去，公司如何破局？ 董秘： 投资者您好！公司主营产品均是高度市场化的产品，市场价格受宏观政策、行业趋势、供求关 系等多种因素影响，部分产品具有较强的周期性特征。为积极应对行业变化，努力克服市场波动带来的 风险挑战，公司将在成本管控、市场拓展、管理优化、技术研发、安全环保等方面持续发力，同时加快 技术升级和产业转型步伐，努力实现在市场竞争中破局突围。谢谢！ 投资者： 公司采购的天然气，是否主要来自大股东，大股东能否低于市场价供气？如国家能源集团控 股的中国神华和国电电力，在2022年作用，煤价疯涨的时候，神华向国电供煤就低于市场，使国电当年 亏损额远低于大唐发电、华能国际等同行，四川美丰实控人是否会有此担当？ 董秘： 投资者您好！公司原料天然气价格以国家政策法规或指导性文件为依据，执行市场 ...

Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is at the bottom of the cycle in 2025, with both investment in cyclical sectors and thematic trends progressing simultaneously. Since Q3 2025, global manufacturing has shown signs of recovery, but demand growth is slowing, leading to a decline in the PPI of chemical products year-on-year [1][65] - On the demand side, the domestic real estate market is at a cyclical low, while sales of new energy vehicles continue to grow significantly. Retail sales are stabilizing, supported by ongoing consumption promotion policies [1][65] - On the supply side, China has become a global leader in the chemical industry, while the manufacturing and chemical production capacity utilization rates in the EU have been declining, particularly in Germany, where the production of basic chemicals has been continuously decreasing [1][65] Group 1: Chemical Industry Overview - The chemical industry is experiencing a prolonged bottoming phase, with a three-year duration already observed. The potential for a turnaround may be approaching [1][65] - The PPI of chemical products has been under pressure, with year-on-year declines noted in major economies, including China, the EU, and Japan [9][74] - The domestic chemical industry is facing a situation of excess supply, which is exerting short-term pressure on prices, while the inventory cycle is still in a passive replenishment phase [1][65] Group 2: Demand Side Analysis - The domestic real estate market is at a cyclical low, with significant declines in new construction and sales figures. The cumulative sales area of new commercial housing in major cities has decreased by 11% year-on-year [18][25] - Sales of new energy vehicles in China have maintained high growth, with a year-on-year increase of 19% in the first eleven months of 2025, indicating strong market demand [25][28] - Retail sales in China have shown a steady improvement, with a growth rate of 4% year-on-year for the first eleven months of 2025, supported by consumption promotion initiatives [28][29] Group 3: Supply Side Analysis - China has replaced Europe and the US as the global leader in chemical production, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in output, while the EU and Germany have seen declines [30][36] - The production capacity in the EU has been declining, particularly in Germany, where the output of various basic chemicals has dropped significantly compared to 2019 levels [36][37] - The investment in basic chemical projects in China has turned negative, indicating a potential shift in the supply landscape as excess capacity begins to face clearing risks [1][65] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on low-valuation leading companies and sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics, including major players in the chemical industry such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others [3][67] - The fertilizer sector is expected to benefit from slowing capacity growth and increasing overseas demand, which may support price increases [66] - The tire market is showing signs of recovery, with domestic leading companies expanding their global production bases, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [66]

由于供应增速远超需求增速，今年以来，国内尿素期、现货价格震荡偏弱运行。进入四季度，尿素期货 主力合约一度创下五年新低，现货价格跌破部分企业生产成本线。 展望2026年，业内普遍认为，尿素市场产能过剩情况不容乐观，价格或延续承压运行，不过，在"反内 卷"等政策推动下，化工行业或将迎来周期拐点。同时，出口政策变动也将引发尿素价格阶段性波动。 供应远超需求 尿素市场延续弱势运行 2025年国内尿素市场整体价格重心较2024年下移，具体呈现倒"V"字走势，尿素主力连续合约在上半年 触及1931元／吨的高点后，下半年盘面承压回调，反复探底，最低触及1577元／吨的5年新低。 现货价格同样来到近几年的低位水平，全年波动幅度明显收窄。卓创资讯数据显示，今年尿素现货价格 年度波动幅度基本位于-2%至2%区间，年内价格高、低点均处于近五年的最低水平。截至12月18日，12 月国内尿素市场均价1712.58元／吨，同比下跌5.88%。 在受访业内人士看来，由于供应增速远超需求增速，低产销、高库存的状态长期维持，是尿素价格持续 走弱的主要原因。 据卓创资讯预计，2025年中国尿素产能将达到8080万吨，较2024年增加4.65%。 ...

中化新网讯 近日，中国化学工程所属中国五环工程有限公司自主研发的"第二代高效合成、低能耗尿素 工艺技术"通过了中国石油和化学工业联合会组织的科技成果鉴定。鉴定委员会一致认为，该技术创新 性强，拥有完全自主知识产权，整体技术达到国际领先水平。 目前，第二代高效合成、低能耗尿素工艺技术已在国内外推广30余套，产能超过2500万吨/年，还先后 获得湖北省专利金奖、氮肥工业协会技术进步奖一等奖等，并获得国家授权专利22项，其中发明专利7 项。 该公司研发的新一代全冷凝反应器与新型高压圈工艺流程，在国际上率先实现尿素合成两步反应在各自 最优工艺条件下进行，合成转化率显著提升，蒸汽消耗与循环水消耗大幅降低，从根本上破除了传统尿 素装置的能耗瓶颈。基于该技术建设的安徽昊源化工集团有限公司70万吨/年尿素装置，在72小时现场 考核中运行指标优于设计值，单位尿素产品的2.5MPaG饱和蒸汽消耗降低到562.9千克，达到行业先进 水平。 ...