Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to macro - factors such as a weaker US dollar and optimistic sentiment from US - China trade negotiations. OPEC + production increased in May, but less than planned. The market is in a strong - side shock trend, suggesting a short - term long - bias approach. Resistance levels are given for WTI, Brent, and SC. Options can use a straddle structure [2]. Polyester Industry - PX: Supply has increased, but short - term downside is limited due to downstream demand and geopolitical factors. Strategies include short - term observation, 9 - 1 short - spread, and narrowing the PX - SC spread. - PTA: Supply - demand is weakening, but there is support at low levels. Strategies are to focus on the 4600 support and use a short - on - rebound approach, and 9 - 1 short - spread. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply is expected to remain low in June, with good supply - demand structure but limited upside due to weak demand. It is expected to trade in a range, and look for 9 - 1 long - spread opportunities. - Short - fiber: Processing fee recovery is limited, and absolute price follows raw materials. Strategies are similar to PTA and expanding the processing fee at low levels. - Bottle - chip: Supply - demand is expected to improve in June, and the processing fee is supported. Strategies are similar to PTA and expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [6]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: Recent decline is due to cost reduction. Supply has increased overall, but decreased in Shandong. Demand is supported by alumina. Inventory is accumulating in East China. Hold the 7 - 9 long - spread before price cuts or large - scale warehouse - receipt outflows. - PVC: Short - term is in a shock trend, but long - term supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Supply pressure will increase in June, and demand is weak. Adopt a short - selling strategy [11][16]. Styrene Industry - Short - term styrene may fluctuate, and mid - term pay attention to the bearish opportunity from raw material resonance. Downstream 3S profits have improved, and port inventory has decreased slightly, but supply may increase after plant restart [19][22]. PE and PP Industry - PE: Inventory is accumulating at the beginning of the month, with slight destocking in social inventory. Supply and demand are balanced in June, with limited up - and - down drivers. - PP: New capacity will be put into operation in June - July, and demand is in the off - season. There is a large inventory - accumulation pressure. Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices [26][27]. Urea Industry - High supply is not matched by demand. Agricultural demand has slightly improved but lacks activity, and industrial demand is weakened by the decline in compound fertilizer production. Future trends depend on export policy and market sentiment. [33] Methanol Industry - Supply is abundant with high domestic production and expected high imports. Demand has increased in MTO but with poor downstream profits. Price should be traded in the 2200 - 2350 range, and pay attention to the transition from implicit to explicit inventory accumulation [35]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent rose to $67.04/barrel, WTI to $65.35/barrel, and SC to 479.30 yuan/barrel on June 10. Various spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS also changed [2]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices changed, and their spreads and cracking spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [2]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of POY, FDY, DTY, etc. decreased, and cash flows of some products also declined [6]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX price decreased, and various PX spreads changed [6]. - **PTA - related**: PTA prices decreased, and its spreads and basis also changed [6]. - **MEG**: Port inventory increased, and to - port expectations changed. Supply and demand are expected to be good in June [6]. - **Industry开工率**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [6]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Prices of Shandong caustic soda and East China PVC remained stable or changed slightly, and futures prices also had corresponding fluctuations [11]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC remained stable, but export profits changed [12][13]. - **Supply**: Chlor - alkali operating rates and industry profits changed, with PVC operating rate increasing and some profit margins improving [14]. - **Demand**: Operating rates of downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed, and PVC pre - sales volume increased [15][16]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of caustic soda and PVC changed, with some accumulating and some remaining stable [16]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR China pure benzene increased [19]. - **Styrene Spot and Futures**: Styrene spot and futures prices increased, and basis and month - spreads changed [20]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: Overseas quotes of styrene increased, and import profits decreased [21]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Profits**: Operating rates of some industries in the styrene chain changed, and profits of some products improved significantly [22]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of pure benzene and styrene ports and downstream products changed [22]. PE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of PE and PP changed slightly, and their spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [26]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of PE and PP enterprises and social inventories increased [26]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries changed [26]. Urea Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices changed, and upstream raw material prices remained stable. Spot prices in different regions decreased [32]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea production decreased slightly, and inventory increased. Agricultural and industrial demands were weak [33]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices changed, and various spreads and basis also changed [35]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories increased [35]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [35].

尿素日报 | 2025-06-10 需求跟进有限，尿素震荡偏弱 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-09，尿素主力收盘1697元/吨（-23）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1760 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1760元/吨（-70）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1780元/吨（-70）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：63 元/吨（-47）；河南基差：63元/吨（-47）；江苏基差：83元/吨（-47）；尿素生产利润195元/吨（-70），出口利润533 元/吨（+17）。 供应端：截至2025-06-09，企业产能利用率89.43%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为103.54 万吨（+5.48），港口样本 库存量为20.50 万吨（+0.00）。 需求端：截至2025-06-09，复合肥产能利用率37.13%（-2.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.31%（+1.33%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.47日（-0.41）。 需求端表现清淡，下游跟进有限，尿素震荡偏弱。尿素装置检修较少，开工依旧高位运行，供应端偏宽松。煤炭、 天然气等上游原料价格窄幅变动，成本端稳定延续。目前处于农需旺季，但是下游农 ...

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Core Insights - The report by Yihe Consulting provides an in-depth analysis of the ammonium sulfate market, focusing on global and Chinese markets, and aims to meet diverse client needs through detailed market insights [2][4]. Market Participants - The ammonium sulfate market includes a wide range of participants, from major fertilizer producers to local SMEs, with industry giants leveraging advanced production technologies and extensive sales networks to maintain market share [6]. - The report details the financial status, production capacity, and market positioning of key players, offering a comprehensive view of the competitive landscape [6]. Industry Structure - The ammonium sulfate supply chain is complex, involving upstream production of ammonia and sulfuric acid, and downstream applications in agriculture and industry [6]. - Price fluctuations in ammonia directly impact production costs of ammonium sulfate, while seasonal demand spikes in agriculture influence market dynamics [6]. Market Trends and Data - Historical data and future forecasts indicate stable growth in the ammonium sulfate market, driven by increasing global demand for sustainable agriculture and efficient fertilizers [7]. - The report compares growth potential across different regions and analyzes the impact of national policies on market development, aiding companies in identifying optimal market entry strategies [7]. Constraints and Challenges - The report identifies several constraints affecting market growth, including rising costs, stringent environmental regulations, and intensifying market competition [7]. - Fluctuations in raw material prices and the need for technological innovation are highlighted as critical factors for companies to manage production costs effectively [7]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical issues significantly influence the ammonium sulfate market, affecting raw material supply chains and introducing potential tariffs and trade barriers [8]. - The report emphasizes the need for companies to monitor international political developments to adapt their market strategies accordingly [8]. Regional Analysis - The report provides a detailed analysis of the ammonium sulfate market across major regions, including North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America, with Asia-Pacific showing the fastest growth due to agricultural modernization and sustained fertilizer demand [8]. - Regional consumption characteristics, industry policies, and geographical differences are explored to help stakeholders understand market potential and challenges [8]. China Market Insights - The report specifically analyzes China's policy environment, including government support for the fertilizer industry and environmental regulations, which significantly impact market behavior [9]. - As the largest consumer of ammonium sulfate globally, changes in China's policies will directly affect the global supply-demand landscape [9].

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 【中原化工】 关注夏季肥补货及出口兑现情况 ——尿素周报2025.06.09 中原期货研究所：化工组 作者：刘培洋 研究助理：申文 执业证书编号：F0290318 执业证书编号： F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 0371-58620083 0371-58620081 liupy_qh@ccnew.com shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 01 周度观点汇总 1.1 尿素周度观点——关注夏季肥补货及出口兑现情况 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1. 供应：装置检修变化有限，日产维持高位运行； | | | | | 2. 需求：夏季肥逐步进入收尾阶段； | | | | | 3. 库存：上游尿素企业延续累库，港口库存变化有限； | | | | | 4. 成本与利润：煤炭价格弱稳运行，尿素利润环比增加； | | | | | 5. 基差与价差：9-1价差偏弱运行，09基差走强。 | 短期尿素期价延 | 新 增 产 能 投 放 | | | 6. 整体逻辑： | 续偏弱 ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货增仓下跌，最终报收 1697（-31/-1.79%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价跌幅扩大，成交一般，河南出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 172-1740 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1640-1710 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1760-1770 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1660-1670 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】6 月 9 日，尿素行业日产 20.51 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.64 万吨，较去 年同期增加 2.62 万吨；今日开工 89.18%，较去年同期 82.62%回升 6.56%。 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪依旧疲软，主流地区尿素现货出厂报报价跌幅扩大，成交一般。山 东地区主流出厂报价大幅领跌，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率降至低位，原料 库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业继续刚需采购，贸易商 出货为主，新单成交一般，代发告罄，预计出厂报价下跌为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低， 出厂报价大幅跟 ...

尿素产业日报 2025-06-09 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1697 | -23 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 41 | -10 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 265857 | 21123 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -482 | -4185 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 6053 | -16 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1850 | -10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1830 | -10 | | | 江苏(日,元/ ...

基础化工 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 08 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 基础化工 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《光引发剂供需格局有望改善，行业 底 部 回 暖 可 期 — 行 业 深 度 报 告 》 -2025.6.2 《山东高密化工厂发生爆炸事故，相 关行业落后产能有望加速出清—行业 周报》-2025.6.2 《发改委新闻发布会再次强调反内 卷，高质量化工龙头企业市场份额有 望进一步提升—行业周报》-2025.5.25 2025 年印度钾肥大合同价敲定 349 美元/吨，有望提 振钾肥景气 ——行业周报 | 金益腾（分析师） 蒋跨跃（分析师） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn jiangkuayue@kysec.cn | | | | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 证书编号：S0790523120001 | | | | |  本周行业观点：2025 年印度钾肥大合同价敲定 349 美元/吨， ...

2025 年 06 月 09 日 究 报 告 纯内需、高股息等方向 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：张伟保 S1050523110001 zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：高铭谦 S1050124080006 gaomq@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 基础化工(申万) 2.5 0.7 8.1 沪深 300 0.7 -1.8 8.4 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《基础化工行业周报：磷矿石、 草甘膦等涨幅居前，建议关注进口 替代、纯内需、高股息等方向》 2025-06-03 2、《基础化工行业周报：丁二烯、 煤焦油等涨幅居前，建议关注进口 替代、纯内需、高股息等方向》 2025-05-26 3、《基础化工行业周报：丁二烯、 苯乙烯等涨幅居前，建议关注进口 替代、纯内需、高股息等方向》 2025-05-19 ▌天然气、盐酸等涨幅居前，己二酸、煤焦油等跌幅较大 本周涨幅较大的产品：天然气（NYMEX 天然气（期货）， 14.76%），盐酸（华东合成酸，9.39%），合成氨（ ...

表现 1M 3M 12M 基础化工(申万) 2.5 0.7 8.1 沪深 300 0.7 -1.8 8.4 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 基础化工 沪深300 2025 年 06 月 09 日 究 报 告 纯内需、高股息等方向 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：张伟保 S1050523110001 zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：高铭谦 S1050124080006 gaomq@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《基础化工行业周报：磷矿石、 草甘膦等涨幅居前，建议关注进口 替代、纯内需、高股息等方向》 2025-06-03 2、《基础化工行业周报：丁二烯、 煤焦油等涨幅居前，建议关注进口 替代、纯内需、高股息等方向》 2025-05-26 3、《基础化工行业周报：丁二烯、 苯乙烯等涨幅居前，建议关注进口 替代、纯内需、高股息等方向》 2025-05-19 ▌天然气、盐酸等涨幅居前，己二酸、煤焦油等跌幅较大 本周涨幅较大的产品：天然气（NYMEX 天然气（期货）， 14.76%），盐酸（华东合成酸，9.39%），合成氨（ ...