2024年5—6月，郑商所先后发布公告，增设四川农资化肥有限责任公司（下称川农化肥）、爱普控股集 团有限公司（下称爱普控股）等多家企业为尿素期货指定的交割仓（厂）库或提货点，将尿素期货交割 区域扩展至东北、华北、西南等地区的多个省份。据期货日报记者了解，新一批交割设施已于2025年4 月24日正式投入运营，标志着我国尿素期货交割体系完成新一轮战略布局，为服务全国统一大市场建设 和保障粮食安全注入了新动能。截至目前，尿素期货交割区域已覆盖全国13个省（自治区），交割库容 超过百万吨。 记者注意到，本次郑商所在东北地区新投入运营的交割库包括辽宁佳时、辽宁化肥两家交割仓库，以及 黑龙江倍丰、爱普控股两家交割厂库。值得关注的是，尿素交割网络首次实现东北主产区与西南农业大 省的战略联动。成都云图控股、中农控股等提货点的设立，形成了覆盖东北、华北、西南的"三角支 撑"布局。 "粮安天下，肥稳粮基。"爱普控股尿素产品线总经理杨才月表示，东北作为年需求数百万吨的尿素调入 地区，传统采购季常面临价格剧烈波动的影响。此次在辽宁锦州设立的提货点，启用次日即完成305张 仓单注册，6—7月追肥旺季的交割货源已全部到位。 在杨才月看来 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, particularly highlighting undervalued and high-growth opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The anti-dumping duties on chlorpyrifos are expected to benefit domestic companies, with a recommendation to focus on Yangnong Chemical [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of orderly exports of nitrogen fertilizers, suggesting that leading domestic companies should adopt a proactive pricing strategy to avoid excessive competition [3]. - The chemical sector is experiencing a gradual recovery in PPI, with a focus on investment opportunities in cyclical products due to low inventory levels [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic conditions indicate a mixed outlook for oil, coal, and natural gas prices, with oil prices supported by shale oil production costs [3][4]. - The report notes a significant price increase in PTA and MEG, driven by supply constraints and optimistic market sentiment [9][10]. Fertilizer and Pesticide Market - Domestic urea prices have risen by 2.8% to 1830 CNY/ton, influenced by export policy expectations [11]. - The report highlights the stable pricing of various pesticides, with specific price points for glyphosate and other herbicides remaining unchanged [11]. Chemical Products Pricing - The report provides detailed pricing trends for various chemical products, including a 1.6% decrease in PVC prices and stable pricing for other chemicals like DMC and silicone [12][13]. - The report indicates a cautious market sentiment in the dye industry, with prices remaining stable despite cost support from raw materials [15]. Key Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, with recommendations for stocks such as Yangnong Chemical (buy) and Hualu Chemical (increase) based on their projected earnings and market performance [17][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating, but it indicates that the short - term outlook for urea is bullish, with suggestions for short - term speculative trading and positive spreads between the 9 - 1 and other contracts [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The urea market is expected to run strongly in the short term. The release of fertilizer demand in Northeast and Central China, along with increased speculative behavior of traders due to export information, has led to a significant rise in urea futures prices, and the market remains strong. The 9 - 1 spread is in a positive arbitrage pattern [2][3] - The domestic urea factory ex - factory price is stable under policy control, while the trader's quotation shows a slight upward trend. The international and domestic markets are gradually aligning in terms of trading logic [2] - The production profit of urea is at the break - even line, and the daily output remains high. The raw material price is relatively stable, and the cash - flow cost of the factory is around 1364 yuan/ton, with the corresponding profit in a profitable state [29][32][33] - The "Inspection Law" policy remains strict, and urea exports are extremely low, but the theoretical export profit is high [39][41] - Agricultural demand for urea is seasonally strengthening, while industrial demand shows mixed trends, with high - level operation of compound fertilizer production and a year - on - year decline in melamine production. The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient [47][54][55] - Urea inventory shows an upstream accumulation pattern, with factory inventory decreasing in most provinces and port inventory increasing slightly [62][64][65] Summary by Directory Valuation: Price and Spread - The report presents multiple charts showing the basis of different urea producers (Zhengyuan, Boda, Jinkai, Dongping), the spreads between different months (5 - 9, 9 - 1, 1 - 5), and the number of warehouse receipts. These data help in understanding the price relationships and market expectations [6][10][11] - It also shows the domestic and international spot prices of urea over multiple years, providing a historical perspective on price trends [16][20] Domestic Supply - **Capacity**: The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continues in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 4270000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 3460000 tons, with several new projects planned or in the process of adjustment [24] - **Production**: The production profit is at the break - even line, and the daily output of urea remains high. The capacity utilization rate and production volume of different production methods (coal - based, gas - based) are also presented [29][30] - **Cost**: The raw material price is relatively stable, and the factory cash - flow cost line is around 1364 yuan/ton. The report also provides cost calculations for different production processes (fixed - bed, fluid - bed, natural gas) [32] - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state, as shown by the cash - flow profit charts of different production devices [33][34] - **Net Import (Export)**: The "Inspection Law" policy remains strict, and urea exports are extremely low. However, the current large price difference between domestic and international markets results in high theoretical export profits [39][41] Domestic Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand for urea is seasonally strengthening, with different regions having different fertilizer demand patterns based on their main crops. The construction of high - standard farmland is expected to increase the demand for urea [47][48][49] - **Industrial Demand**: The compound fertilizer industry maintains a high - level operation, while the production of melamine has decreased year - on - year. The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient [54][55][59] Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: As of May 7, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0656 million tons, a decrease of 126100 tons from the previous week, a 10.58% decrease. Inventory increased in some provinces (Henan, Hubei, Qinghai, Sichuan) and decreased in others [65] - **Port Inventory**: As of May 8, 2025 (week 19), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 133000 tons, an increase of 15000 tons from the previous week, a 12.71% increase [65] International Urea - **International Urea Price**: The report shows the FOB prices of large - granular urea in different regions (China, Baltic, Middle East) and the CFR price in Brazil over multiple years, reflecting the international price trends [69][70][72] - **India's Urea Market**: It provides information on India's urea production, import, inventory, and demand from fiscal years 2018 - 2025, as well as details of India's urea tenders [74][80][81]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Chitianhua Co., Ltd. reported a challenging financial year for 2024, with a net loss attributed to various operational factors, despite some growth in revenue from its chemical and medical service segments [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of CNY 238,006.12 million in 2024, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of CNY -8,669.35 million [1][19]. - The chemical segment generated revenue of CNY 226,020.86 million, contributing a net profit of CNY 13,086.61 million, while the medical services segment reported a revenue of CNY 10,430.55 million with a net loss of CNY -12,867.21 million [1][3]. - The coal segment saw an increase in production and sales, with a slight rise in prices compared to the previous year [1]. Asset and Liability Overview - As of December 31, 2024, total assets amounted to CNY 483,556.81 million, reflecting a 2.58% increase from the beginning of the year [2][20]. - The company's debt ratio rose to 47.37%, an increase of 3.57% from the previous year [2]. Production and Sales Data - The company sold 66.11 million tons of urea, a year-on-year increase of 6.36%, and 32.81 million tons of methanol, up 46.16% [2][29]. - The production of synthetic ammonia, methanol, and urea increased by 7.06%, 42.36%, and 7.98% respectively compared to the previous year [3][29]. Future Outlook - For 2025, the company plans to produce 55.80 million tons of urea and 30 million tons of methanol, with a projected total revenue of CNY 217,830.13 million and a net loss of CNY -7,118.09 million [9][33]. - The company anticipates challenges due to market fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly for urea and methanol, which are influenced by international and domestic conditions [34].

Core Insights - New Yangfeng Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. has achieved core technological breakthroughs in sulfuric acid production, establishing a replicable benchmark solution for digital transformation in process industries [1] Group 1: Technological Breakthroughs - The company has developed a "New Yangfeng Model" that emphasizes dual responsibility in digital projects, positioning itself as the action主体 and technology service providers as consultants [1] - Three core technologies have been successfully implemented in the digitalization of sulfuric acid production, providing solutions for the industry [2] Group 2: Specific Innovations - Sulfuric acid power generation control has been improved through a "single-point breakthrough—experience replication" strategy, utilizing decoupling control algorithms to establish mathematical models for key parameters [2] - A "dual-mode control system" has been created for sulfuric acid tail gas management, addressing issues with SO2 concentration fluctuations and monitoring data distortion during desulfurization [2] - Precise control in sulfur iron ore roasting has been achieved by developing a "multi-variable decoupling control algorithm," significantly reducing sulfur residue and enhancing operational stability [2]

Group 1 - The market has shown resilience in liquidity due to external risk expectations and strong policy support for medium to long-term capital inflow [1] - The performance of A-shares is expected to improve as financing may stop its outflow process, creating new opportunities for inflow when new themes emerge [1] - In Q1 2025, the revenue growth rate of all A-shares is expected to decline compared to Q4 2024, while the net profit growth rate is expected to turn positive, indicating significant improvement [1] Group 2 - On Thursday, the A-share market opened lower but experienced upward fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3359 points [2] - The focus of policies has shifted towards expanding domestic demand, with attention on the implementation of fiscal policies and consumption stimulus measures [2] - The central bank has signaled easing, and the increase in financing balance is expected to support market liquidity, with ETF funds continuing to flow in [2] Group 3 - The three major indices collectively rose on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index remaining above the 5-day moving average, indicating a short-term bullish trend [3] - A series of financial policies were released, signaling the start of new incremental policies aimed at enhancing economic resilience and stability [3] - More incremental policies are expected to be introduced, particularly in fiscal policy, domestic demand expansion, and stabilizing foreign trade [3]

产量方面，2025年1—4月尿素日均产量均高于历史同期数据。产量波动区间在17.61万～20.03万吨之 间，目前稳定在19.5万吨左右。1—4月尿素产量合计2349万吨，同比增加233.4万吨，供应增速达到 11.03%。 产能方面，陕西煤化工80万吨（大颗粒）的旧产能扩建项目已顺利投产，甘肃刘化一期35万吨尿素项目 也已投产，江苏晋控新恒盛60万吨尿素搬迁升级技改项目同样已投产。后续来看，尿素产能仍有持续投 放预期。5月，煤制尿素装置有检修计划，气制装置整体开工率低于往年水平。综合来看，尿素供应同 比增速预计维持在8%~11%，日均产量或稳定在18.5万～20万吨区间。 4月，复合肥行业进入短暂用肥空档期，开工率明显下滑，成品库存出现季节性累积。在此背景下，市 场需求疲软，成交欠佳，尿素价格持续承压。临近4月底，尿素及相关肥料出口消息的释放，带动尿素 价格短暂上涨。不过，考虑到保供稳价的政策基调，出口大幅放开的可能性较低，预计后续将以有序放 开的形式推进。整体上，随着5月传统用肥季的到来，出口政策存在一定不确定性，尿素价格走势再度 出现分歧。 供应方面，2025年1—4月尿素开工率呈先升后降态势。开工率从 ...

隔夜美联储结束了为期两天的利率会议，如市场预期的按兵不动，联邦基金利率仍维持在4.25%-4.50% 区间。迄今为止，美联储已在连续三次会议上维持利率不变。 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表态略偏鹰派，他表示，美联储不必急于调整利率，目前的政策是适 度限制的。值得一提的是，鲍威尔还表示，总统特朗普对降息的呼声"根本不会影响"美联储的工作，美 联储从未主动要求与任何总统会面，并且将来也不会。 受上述消息影响，市场对降息的预期微有弱化，目前市场的最新观点是，美联储最早将于今年7月才有 可能下调利率。 继周三冲高回落后，周四A股各大股指以涨为主。截至收盘，上证综指涨0.28%至3352.00点；深综指涨 1.03%，创业板综指涨1.48%，科创50指数跌0.36%，北证50指数涨0.98%。全A总成交额为13218亿元， 较周三的15051亿元明显萎缩。 由个股看，前一天表现强劲的航空航天等军工股继续领涨。军工类股票异常强劲应部分与近期地缘局势 趋向紧张相关，比如南亚局势，这使投资者对国防工业的重要性有了更新的认识。 除军工股涨势喜人外，通信设备、交运设备、通用设备、光伏设备、电机、橡胶制品板块涨幅也相对领 先。下 ...

Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price decreased by 0.7% compared to the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.37 yuan per kilogram, down 3.3%, with lettuce, green peppers, and tomatoes decreasing by 7.8%, 7.2%, and 6.0% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw slight declines, with eggs and white-cut chicken decreasing by 1.9% and 0.2% respectively [1] - Fish wholesale prices experienced minor fluctuations, with large hairtail fish decreasing by 1.7%, while carp, grass carp, silver carp, large yellow croaker, and crucian carp saw increases of 0.4%, 0.3%, 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with soybean oil and flour decreasing by 0.3% and 0.2%, while rice and peanut oil remained stable, and rapeseed oil increased by 0.1% [1] - Meat wholesale prices were predominantly rising, with pork priced at 20.86 yuan per kilogram, up 0.2%, and beef increasing by 0.1%, while lamb decreased by 0.3% [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits saw slight increases, with grapes, citrus, and bananas rising by 4.5%, 3.1%, and 1.3% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - The prices of basic chemical raw materials predominantly decreased, with sulfuric acid, methanol, and polypropylene dropping by 3.0%, 0.3%, and 0.3% respectively, while soda ash increased by 0.1% [2] - The wholesale prices of refined oil generally declined, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline decreasing by 0.5%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively [2] - Coal prices showed slight fluctuations, with thermal coal priced at 772 yuan per ton, down 0.5%, while two types of smokeless coal and coking coal increased by 0.3% each, priced at 1178 yuan and 981 yuan per ton respectively [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices remained relatively stable, with zinc and copper decreasing by 0.2% and 0.1%, while aluminum increased by 0.1% [2] - Fertilizer prices saw slight increases, with urea and compound fertilizers both rising by 0.1% [2] - Steel prices were predominantly rising, with high-speed wire, rebar, and ordinary medium plate priced at 3677 yuan, 3472 yuan, and 3790 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Rubber prices experienced slight increases, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber rising by 1.6% and 0.6% respectively [2]

尿素日报 | 2025-05-08 下游刚需跟进，上游小幅去库 市场分析 尿素出口放松的消息扰动盘面。新增装置投产，淡季储备货源释放，尿素产量维持高位。部分地区返青肥结束， 农业处于空档期，而南方地区降水偏少，水稻用肥需求后延且分散，工业需求复合肥开工率大幅下降，整体需求 较为分散，下游整体接货积极性不高，订单预收情况转弱。上游库存累积，中长期来看供应压力仍维持高位。内 盘尿素价格走低，而国际尿素价格小幅走高，尿素内外盘价差走高。进出口窗口维持关闭，国内出口政策维持收 紧情况下，未来短期国内企业参与出口可能性较低，港口未有明显变化，整体港口库存偏平稳运行，出口量维持 低位，建议持续关注尿素出口相关政策。 策略 中性，预计尿素行情延续窄幅震荡为主。 风险 价格与基差：2025-05-07，尿素主力收盘1886元/吨（+5）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1900 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1900元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1910元/吨（+20）；小块无烟煤660元/吨（+0），山东基差： 14元/吨（+5）；河南基差：14元/吨（+5）；江苏基差：24元/吨（+15）；尿素生产利润433元/吨（ ...