以下文章来源于霞光社 ，作者李小天 洋紫 唐飞 霞光社 . 赋能企业全球化 作者 | 李小天 洋紫 唐飞 根据德意志银行调查，美国人购物车中中国商品占比高达65%，美国老百姓的钱包正在逐渐干瘪。 《华尔街日报》描述了一位50岁的纽约市民，在跑了多家商店并向店员致电争取后，终于抢购到那 家商店最后一台中国品牌的电视机。 来源 | 霞光社 导 语 ：关税释放了地壳深层的岩浆原力，搅动了产能的乾坤大挪移。 靴子终于落地了。 美东时间4月9日凌晨（即北京时间中午12点），美国对中国再征收的50%额外关税正式生效。而在 几天前的4月2日，特朗普政府向全球主要贸易伙伴宣布"对等关税"方案，其中对中国在现行税率基 础上，再加34%的关税。 时至今日，特朗普第二任期内对中国所有商品累计加征的新关税税率将达到104%，中美贸易战全面 爆发。 关税大棒，持续冲击着中国各行业产业链，同时也扰动着全球经贸格局。 正如桥水基金创始人达利欧4月7日在领英发布的文章所说："我们正在目睹全球主要货币秩序、政 治秩序和地缘政治秩序的典型崩溃。美国主导的多边合作世界秩序正在被单边的强权统治模式所取 代。这种崩溃一生中只发生一次，但在历史上，类似 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wan Shili has confirmed that its current operating situation is normal and there are no undisclosed significant matters that should be disclosed [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Stock Performance**: The stock price of Wan Shili has experienced a cumulative increase of over 30% over two consecutive trading days (April 9, 2025, and April 10, 2025), indicating abnormal trading fluctuations [1] - **Operational Status**: The company has verified that there have been no significant changes in the internal or external operating environment [1] - **Disclosure Compliance**: The company, its controlling shareholders, and actual controllers have confirmed that there are no significant matters that should be disclosed but have not been, nor are there any major matters in the planning stage [1]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 特别提示： 1、山东南山智尚科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）回购专用证券账户中的股份5,369,100股不参与 本次权益分派。公司2024年年度权益分派方案为：以公司现有总股本434,705,856股剔除已回购股份 5,369,100股后的429,336,756股为基数，向全体股东每10股派发1.50元（含税）人民币现金，实际派发现 金分红总额64,400,513.40元（含税）。 2、本次权益分派实施后计算除权除息价格时，按总股本（含回购股份）折算的每10股现金红利（含 税）=现金分红总额÷总股本×10=64,400,513.40元÷434,705,856×10=1.481473元（保留六位小数，不四舍 五入）。本次权益分派实施后除权除息参考价=股权登记日收盘价-按总股本折算每股现金红利=股权登 记日收盘价-0.1481473元/股。 公司2024年度权益分派方案已于2025年4月3日获2024年年度股东大会审议通过，现将权益分派事宜公告 如下： 一、股东大 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report indicates that major US consumer companies are cautious about future fiscal year expectations, primarily due to tariff pressures and consumer downgrading trends in the US market. However, companies like Walmart and Lululemon express a more optimistic outlook for the Chinese market [3][23] - Recommendations include buying leading sportswear brand Anta Sports (02020), and considering Li Ning (02331), Xtep International (01368), and Tabo (06110) for buying or holding. Additionally, long-term prospects are favorable for resilient leading manufacturers such as Shenzhou International (02313), Weixing Co., Ltd. (002003), and Huali Group (300979) [3][23] Summary by Sections US Consumer Giants Performance - Walmart's FY26 revenue growth guidance is 3-4%, with a same-store sales increase of 23.1% in FY25Q4, driven by strong e-commerce and new store openings [10][13] - Target expects FY25 revenue growth of about 1%, with same-store sales remaining flat, facing pressure from tariffs and operational costs [14][15] - Dollar General anticipates FY25 revenue growth of 3.4-4.4%, with core consumers facing economic challenges and a notable trend of consumer downgrading [17][18] - Nike projects a mid-double-digit revenue decline for FY25Q4, with significant inventory issues and a 15% revenue drop in the Greater China region [19][20] - Lululemon expects FY25 revenue growth of 5-7%, with a strong growth forecast of 25-30% in the Greater China region [21][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious approach towards US consumer giants due to tariff pressures and consumer behavior changes, while highlighting positive growth prospects in China for certain brands [3][23]

这个周末很多股民都过的很忐忑，担心周一行情受贸易战冲击出现暴跌。 我们对美出口占比15%，加上转口贸易可能在17-18%，这部分贸易被关税壁垒挤压后，中国很大概率会 在国内执行进一步的刺激政策来对冲利空，央行择机降准降息择了那么久，估计下周要落地了。但仅仅 降准降息是不够的，我猜后续会有更大规模的政府投资，和更直接的消费刺激。 所以消费板块有机会异军突起，在这种特殊的环境下成为a股的新热点，以及那些公司主营全部来自国 内市场的公司，理论上都会有跑赢大盘的表现。比如周四涨幅最高的是养殖板块，基本是内销市场。 中国自身的消费规模占gdp大约是4成，世界上其它国家的平均水平是在6成左右。之所以我们的比例偏 低，不是因为我们的消费规模小，事实上中国已经是连续十余年的全球第二大消费市场，但问题是我们 的生产能力更惊人，全球断层领先。 目前看形势确实不太好，在中国宣布关税反制措施后，新加坡a50期指大概比周四下午3点的位置下跌了 4%，周五晚上纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌8.87%，种种迹象表明明天早上开盘会是一个大幅跳空低开， 我判断大概在-2%到-3%区间。 低开-2%的话反弹空间其实不大的，因为稍微向上涨涨就会面临33 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - The brand sector shows steady recovery in Q1 under consumer promotion policies, with most companies achieving positive growth, outperforming expectations. The performance varies across sub-sectors, with mid-to-high-end menswear showing strong growth, sports retail maintaining steady growth, and mass brands also experiencing a rebound. Profitability varies due to differentiated cost control and operational leverage [2][4][16] - The manufacturing sector faces short-term pressure as downstream inventory has reached healthy levels, but demand from major export countries is weakening. In Q1, demand from the US and Japan shows marginal weakening. Most brands and retailers have returned to healthy inventory levels, but weak overseas demand is expected to limit replenishment momentum, affecting order elasticity in the related supply chain [2][4][17] Summary by Relevant Sections Brand Sector - Q1 retail sales of clothing and textiles increased by 3.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 3.6 percentage points [20] - Mid-to-high-end menswear brands are leading in retail growth, while the sports sector continues to show steady growth. Mass apparel brands are also experiencing a recovery [20][27] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector is under short-term pressure due to weak demand from major export markets and healthy inventory levels. The overall order placement is cautious, with expectations of further pressure from tariff forecasts [4][28] Key Company Performance - **Wanjian Medical**: Expected Q1 revenue growth of 30%-40%, driven by non-woven products and strong brand power in sanitary napkins [5][40] - **Zhejiang Natural**: Anticipated Q1 revenue growth of 25%-35%, with net profit expected to increase by 50%-100% [5][40] - **Weixing Co.**: Expected Q1 revenue growth of 10%-15% and double-digit net profit growth [5][40] - **Anta Sports**: Expected Q1 revenue growth in the high single digits, with FILA brand showing mid-to-low single-digit growth [6][20] - **361 Degrees**: Anticipated Q1 revenue growth of 10%-15% for adult apparel and around 15% for children's clothing, with e-commerce growth of about 20% [6][20] Inventory and Demand Trends - The inventory levels of most brands and retailers have returned to a healthy state, with the wholesale inventory destocking nearing completion. However, weak overseas demand is expected to limit replenishment momentum [4][28]

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for leading sports brands like Anta Sports and Li Ning, indicating strong operational resilience and growth potential in a challenging retail environment [5][27]. Core Insights - The sports industry demonstrated strong operational resilience in 2024, with major companies like Anta Sports, Li Ning, Xtep International, and 361 Degrees showing varied revenue growth rates of +13.58%, +3.90%, -5.36%, and +19.59% respectively [1][7]. - The report anticipates continued stable growth for leading sports brands in 2025, with projections for Anta's main brand to maintain high single-digit growth and FILA to achieve mid-single-digit growth [13][14]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - Anta Sports and FILA maintained steady operations, with revenue reaching 70.826 billion CNY, while 361 Degrees capitalized on lower-tier markets, achieving a revenue increase of 19.59% to 10.074 billion CNY [1][10]. - Li Ning's revenue remained stable, with a focus on e-commerce and product diversification, leading to a 10.3% increase in online sales [9]. Marketing and Inventory Management - Anta Sports increased its sales expense ratio to 36.21%, reflecting higher investments in new product promotions and channel expansion [2][16]. - Inventory turnover days improved for Xtep International, decreasing by 10 days to 79 days, while 361 Degrees saw an increase in turnover days due to strategic inventory buildup for e-commerce [2][17]. Manufacturing Sector - Major manufacturers like Wah Lee Group and Shenzhou International reported revenue growth of 19.35% and 14.79% respectively, driven by increased demand and efficient operations [3][22]. - The overall profitability of the manufacturing sector improved, with Wah Lee's net profit margin at 15.36% and Shenzhou's gross margin increasing to 28.10% [20][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading sports brands like Anta Sports and Li Ning are well-positioned to outperform the industry due to their operational strengths and market strategies [5][27]. - For the manufacturing sector, Wah Lee Group is recommended as a strong player, with potential for increased market share amid industry consolidation due to external pressures [5][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of Trump's reciprocal tariff policy on April 2 will have a significant impact on global macro - asset classes, including financial derivatives and commodity markets, and the subsequent policy hedging will be a key variable [1][2][3]. - The global market is shifting from the progressive tariff expectation in Q1 to a more definite stagflation trading logic. High tariffs and potential retaliatory measures may exacerbate the macro - economic pattern of "slowing growth + stubborn inflation" [2]. - Policy hedging from the Trump administration and major economies such as China and Europe will shape the market's main trend in Q2 [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Potential Impact on Macro and Financial Derivatives Markets - **Policy Features and Initial Market Reactions**: The reciprocal tariff policy has some buffer measures, including exemptions for certain commodities and a phased implementation schedule. When the policy was announced, U.S. stock futures declined, U.S. bond yields dropped, the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated, gold oscillated at a high level, and the Japanese yen strengthened [2]. - **Mid - term Market Logic**: The global market is moving towards a stagflation trading logic. The U.S. will first face "inflation" and then "stagnation", while major trade - surplus countries like China will first face the challenge of "stagnation" and then drive re - inflation through policy hedging [2]. - **Policy Focus**: The U.S. may implement tax cuts and the Fed may consider early interest - rate cuts. The pace of stimulus policies in major economies such as China and Europe will affect market expectations [3]. - **Market Outlook**: In Q2, the U.S. "hard data" is likely to cool down. The simultaneous weakness of U.S. stocks and the U.S. dollar continues, and the short - term depreciation space of the RMB is limited. China's domestic demand policies are clear, and the key lies in the implementation rhythm [3]. - **Stock and Bond Markets**: Currently, it is the transition period from the re - evaluation of Greater China's technology assets to the implementation of domestic demand policies. The stock index is in high - level oscillation, waiting for domestic demand policies. The bond market is shifting to oscillation, and in 2025, if there are two interest - rate cuts with a reduction of 30 - 40bp, the trading window of the treasury bond market should be noted, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield fluctuating between 1.6% - 1.9% [5]. 3.2 Potential Impact on Commodity Markets 3.2.1 Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals - **Policy Background and Impact Mechanism**: The unexpected tariff is a sign of the acceleration of the de - globalization process since 2016. It aims to solve the U.S. debt problem and reshape the global production and trade pattern. It will reduce U.S. imports, increase government revenue, but also put pressure on employment and consumption. It may also lead to more reciprocal tariffs globally and weaken the U.S. dollar's status [7]. - **Specific Metals Analysis** - **Copper**: Exempted from the current reciprocal tariff, but there is a possibility of future tariff increases. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in Q2, with the trading range estimated at 77,000 - 81,000 RMB [8]. - **Aluminum**: A 25% tariff on imported aluminum has been in effect since March 12. The tariff will be borne by U.S. end - customers, and its impact on China is relatively low [9]. - **Gold**: Exempted from the reciprocal tariff. The gold price is strong, but liquidity risks should be watched out for if U.S. stocks fall continuously. The gold price may fluctuate more due to the development of the trade war [11]. 3.2.2 Energy - **Crude Oil**: The reciprocal tariff policy will not directly affect the trade flow of oil and gas commodities. However, it may increase global economic growth pressure and thus reduce oil demand. The market is concerned about whether the EU and South Korea will impose tariffs on U.S. crude oil imports as counter - measures [12][14]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The overall trend of fuel - related products follows that of crude oil. The demand growth rate of marine fuel may decline due to the trade war, and the negative impact will be more concentrated on the low - sulfur fuel oil market [15]. - **Natural Gas**: The direct impact of the tariff on natural gas is small. Attention should be paid to Canada's potential counter - measures on natural gas exports to the U.S., China's resale of U.S. long - term contract LNG, and the impact on European gas prices [16]. - **LPG**: The U.S. is a net exporter of LPG. China may be cautious in imposing counter - tariffs on U.S. LPG. If counter - tariffs are imposed, the price of LPG will rise significantly, and domestic chemical demand will shrink [17]. 3.2.3 Chemicals - **Overall Impact**: The reciprocal tariff will drag down the cost of chemical products due to the decline in crude oil prices and have a great impact on exports. The overall impact on China and Southeast Asian emerging manufacturing countries is negative [19]. - **Specific Chemical Products** - **Textile and Clothing - related (PTA, Short - fiber)**: The reciprocal tariff will directly affect China's textile and clothing exports to the U.S. and also affect the export of polyester filaments to emerging manufacturing countries, dragging down the export of the polyester and textile - clothing industries [20]. - **Plastic Products**: The tariff increase will lead to higher costs for plastic product enterprises, reduce export speed, and affect raw material demand. The overall impact is negative [21]. - **Home Appliances (Styrene)**: The reciprocal tariff may drag down the demand for styrene in China. The impact on directly and indirectly exported chemical products is negative, but the final impact depends on the negotiation results between countries and the U.S. [22]. 3.2.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: China's steel exports to the U.S. are relatively low, but the indirect impact on steel exports is large, which will put pressure on steel prices, especially hot - rolled coils. The market should pay attention to tariff policies, domestic demand recovery, and macro - hedging policies [23][24][25]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The U.S. tariff policy mainly affects the major export destinations of U.S. corn. It has little impact on China's domestic corn price, and domestic corn prices should focus on their own supply - demand situation [26]. - **Soybeans**: China's soybean imports are mainly from South America in Q2 and Q3, so the impact of tariffs on the supply chain in these two quarters is small. Attention should be paid to the supply and procurement rhythm in Q4. The demand for U.S. soybean oil is expected to be good [27]. - **Palm Oil**: The U.S. tariff increase on Indonesia and Malaysia will be unfavorable for their palm oil exports in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is still strong [28]. - **Canola**: The U.S. reciprocal tariff list does not include Canada (except for steel, aluminum, and automobiles). The trade relationship between the U.S. and Canada in canola oil is highly dependent, and the continuation of trade conflicts will be a loss for both sides [29]. - **Soft Commodities** - **Cotton**: The U.S. tariff increase on China will further reduce China's textile and clothing export competitiveness, and domestic cotton consumption may be negatively affected, with short - term Zhengzhou cotton prices likely to be weak [30]. - **Rubber**: The tariff increase will reduce China's tire export market share in the U.S., have a negative impact on rubber consumption, and drive down domestic rubber futures prices [31].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. tariff policy** and its implications on **global trade**, particularly focusing on the **U.S.-China trade relationship** and the impact on various industries. Core Points and Arguments - The U.S. government has announced a **10% baseline tariff** effective from **April 5, 2025**, projected to generate **$1.9 trillion** in revenue from **2025 to 2034** [2][4] - The tariff policy is based on a **reciprocal principle**, with varying rates for different countries, notably a **34% additional tariff** on Chinese goods, despite claims of a **67% tariff** by the Trump administration [2][3] - The new tariffs are expected to significantly impact **domestic supply chains** and **export trade**, particularly affecting **labor-intensive industries** and companies reliant on **supply chains in Southeast Asia** [2][5] - **Chinese electrical products** face a **66% weighted average tariff**, undermining their cost advantage, while the **textile and apparel sector** may pass costs onto U.S. consumers due to low profit margins [2][7][8] - The Trump administration plans to impose a **25% tariff on automobile imports** and has eliminated the **de minimis exemption** for small packages, introducing a **30% import value-added tax** [9][10] - The high tariffs are likely to increase **global supply chain costs**, affecting U.S. buyers and consumers, and may lead to a reconsideration of production bases, potentially encouraging **reshoring** [12][20] - China may respond with **targeted countermeasures** rather than broad retaliation, focusing on specific sectors to mitigate negative impacts [15][17] - The agricultural sector's tariffs are expected to contribute to rising **U.S. inflation**, with projections of a **1% increase in CPI**, potentially leading to **stagflation** risks [16][20] - The Trump administration's policies are politically motivated, with tariffs potentially serving as leverage in **midterm elections** [22][23] - Future negotiations may allow for **product exemptions** or tariff delays, particularly in sectors like **pharmaceuticals and semiconductors** [13][14] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The **dynamic adjustment** of tariffs based on China's export levels to the U.S. indicates a flexible approach to trade policy [23] - The potential for **non-tariff barriers** as a response to U.S. pressures, with China possibly increasing scrutiny on U.S. imports [19] - The **long-term implications** of the U.S. tariff strategy on global trade relations and the potential for a **shift in supply chains** away from traditional partners [12][24] - The **most-favored-nation status** for China could be at risk, with strategic goods facing **100% tariffs** and non-strategic goods potentially facing high tariffs as well [25]

Market Performance - The CSI 1000 index performed well today, while the CSI 50 index declined by 0.15% and the CSI 300 index fell by 0.08%. The CSI 500 index increased by 0.11%, and the CSI 2000 index rose by 0.27% [6] - Among sector indices, the North Securities 50 index showed strong performance with a rise of 0.52%. The comprehensive finance, textile and apparel, communication, banking, and light industry manufacturing sectors performed well, with returns of 1.69%, 1.42%, 0.97%, 0.89%, and 0.56% respectively. Conversely, the defense, non-ferrous metals, electric utilities, steel, and pharmaceutical sectors underperformed, with returns of -1.53%, -0.83%, -0.71%, -0.59%, and -0.55% respectively [7] - Concept themes such as yellow wine, jewelry, home textiles, PEEK materials, and liquid metals performed well, with returns of 5.06%, 3.19%, 3.01%, 2.71%, and 2.00% respectively. In contrast, concepts like gold selection, aviation engines, photolithography machines, AVIC system, and oil and gas reform showed poor performance, with returns of -2.44%, -1.87%, -1.80%, -1.80%, and -1.73% respectively [8] Market Sentiment - At the market close, there were 48 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 19 stocks hitting the limit down. Stocks that hit the limit up yesterday had a closing return of 0.33%, while those that hit the limit down had a return of -3.54% today. The sealing rate today was 62%, unchanged from the previous day, while the consecutive sealing rate dropped by 14% to 12% [2][12][17] Market Capital Flow - As of April 1, 2025, the margin trading balance was 1.914 trillion yuan, with a financing balance of 1.9028 trillion yuan and a securities lending balance of 11.2 billion yuan. The margin trading balance accounted for 2.4% of the total market capitalization, and margin trading accounted for 8.8% of the market turnover [3][20][23] Premium and Discount - On April 1, 2025, the IoT ETF showed the highest premium at 3.15%, while the Sci-Tech Biomedicine ETF had the highest discount at 0.57%. The average discount rate for block trades over the past six months was 5.41%, with a discount rate of 4.29% on the same day [4][25][29] Institutional Attention and Rankings - In the past week, the stocks with the most institutional research were Sanhua Intelligent Control, Magmi Tech, Huayang Group, and others, with Sanhua Intelligent Control being researched by 409 institutions [5][33] - The stocks with the highest net inflow from institutional special seats on April 2, 2025, included Dongtu Technology, Qin Chuan Machine Tool, and others, while those with the highest net outflow included Hangfa Power, Rundu Shares, and others [37][40]