2025年6月4日 证券研究报告 | 6月社服行业投资策略： 板块整体平稳，把握强平台与强品牌的结构性机会 行业研究 · 行业投资策略 社会服务 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） | 证券分析师：曾光 | 证券分析师：张鲁 | 证券分析师：杨玉莹 | | --- | --- | --- | | 0755-82150809 | 010-88005377 | 0755-81982942 | | zengguang@guosen.com | zhanglu5@guosen.com. | yangyuying@guosen.co | | .cn | cn | m.cn | | S0980511040003 | S0980521120002 | S0980524070006 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ◼ 行情回顾：5月A股社服跑输基准3.6pct，港美股部分出行链龙头财报发布后行情创新高。5月A股社服板块跑输基准3.6pct，A股社服整体表 现震荡；港美股出行链公司结构性亮点突出，其中年初至今同程旅行+21.7%、亚朵+16.4%、华住集团-S+ ...

携程 20250603 摘要 二季度国内酒店预订保持双位数增长，虽价格同比下降，但降幅收窄。 酒店供应量同比增长 5%-10%，需求端常态化增长趋势明显，交通方面 保持稳健的双位数增长，预计国内旅游将持续常态化增长。 出境游运力恢复至 80%-85%，自由行、酒店及机票恢复度达 120%- 125%。携程国际版一季度增速约 60%，目标全年增长 50%以上，预 计全年收入增速维持在 15%左右。关注亚太市场进展，下半年有望受益 于航线进一步恢复。 目前国内业务占总收入 60%-65%，出境业务约 15%，纯海外业务 20%。Trip.com 贡献约 13%，超过疫情前水平。目标未来三到五年国 际业务贡献 50%以上收入，Trip.com 贡献 20%左右。 Skyscanner 以机票搜索为主，Trip.com 早期以机票为主，现酒店收入 占比超 40%且逐步提升。酒店比例提升将对携程利润结构有明确帮助， 可参考国内市场经验。 Trip.com 已进入 30 多个市场，四季度为旺季，三季度也相对繁忙。亚 太地区部分航线尚未完全恢复，如泰国。欧洲大部分地区已恢复甚至超 过 2019 年水平。新加坡、日本和韩国等 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - All 11 director nominees have been elected, indicating strong shareholder support for the board [7] - Stockholders approved the advisory compensation of Expedia Group's named executive officers, reflecting confidence in management [8] - Ernst and Young has been ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal year 2025, ensuring continued oversight [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - No specific business line data or key metrics were provided in the meeting Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - No specific market data or key metrics were provided in the meeting Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The compensation committee considers various factors in establishing executive officer compensation, including business performance and competitive market data, which indicates a strategic focus on aligning executive pay with company performance [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management did not provide specific comments on the operating environment or future outlook during the meeting Other Important Information - The meeting was conducted in accordance with Delaware General Corporation Law and the company's bylaws, ensuring compliance and proper governance [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding the compensation committee's use of the SEC's compensation metric - The compensation committee does not rely specifically on the SEC's compensation metric but reviews various factors including prior year performance and competitive compensation data when setting executive compensation [9][10]

Group 1: JD Delivery Expansion - JD Delivery has announced plans to expand its full-time rider workforce to 150,000, having already surpassed 100,000 riders ahead of schedule by nearly two months [1] - The daily order volume for JD Delivery has exceeded 25 million, supported by over 1.5 million quality restaurant partners [1] - The expansion of the rider team is a necessary response to the rapid growth of the business, aimed at improving delivery efficiency and meeting increasing market demand [1] Group 2: Meituan Travel Insights - Meituan Travel reported a year-on-year increase of over 428% in orders for county-level scenic spots during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday [2] - The growth in tourism orders is driven by the "Dragon Boat Economy" and "Parent-Child Economy," with Guangdong, Xinjiang, and Guizhou ranking among the top provinces for order growth [2] - The rapid growth of county-level scenic spots indicates a shift in the tourism market's consumption structure, providing new economic momentum for local development [2] Group 3: Courier Regulations Update - The State Council's decision to amend the "Interim Regulations on Express Delivery" officially took effect on June 1, introducing a new chapter on "Express Packaging" [3] - The amendments promote green, reduced, and recyclable packaging in the express delivery industry, encouraging the use of new technologies and materials [3] - This policy will have a profound impact on the express delivery industry, requiring companies to optimize packaging materials and processes to comply with new environmental standards [3]

港股互联网：核心标的 25Q1 业绩后基本面展望及投资逻 辑梳理 20250531 摘要 港股市场在消化利好后，受未来不确定性影响波动加剧；南下资金虽持 续流入，但高股息产品和美国国债对权益资产产生虹吸效应，压制港股 表现；美国法院对特朗普关税政策的扰动及降息预期推迟也影响市场。 腾讯 2025 年一季度业绩亮眼，收入增速预计约 10%，利润增速达 14%~15%，主要受益于游戏（如《王者荣耀》、《和平精英》）和广 告（视频号广告加载提升）板块的超预期增长，以及 AI 带来的降本增效。 阿里巴巴 2025 年一季度业绩基本符合预期，淘天集团客户管理收入增 速达 11.8%，云业务收入增速符合市场预期，但利润端表现较弱引发市 场担忧；全年展望乐观，预计淘宝天猫收入增速可达 7%-8%。 美团 2025 年一季度业绩超预期，但面临京东和阿里的竞争压力，预计 二季度外卖经营利润同比下滑 30%左右；外卖行业补贴预计将逐步收窄， 美团市场地位依然稳固，中长期仍具潜力。 网易一季度手游和端游收入超预期，通过降本增效，营销费用大幅减少， 上调全年收入和净利润预测，净利润增速预计为 18%左右；新 IP 游戏 上线有望推动 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in travel consumption during the Dragon Boat Festival, driven by the overlap with International Children's Day, leading to a surge in family-oriented travel products and accommodations [1][3] Group 1: Travel Trends - Domestic and international flight prices saw a decline during the Dragon Boat Festival, with domestic flight prices dropping over 20% on the first day of the holiday [1] - The booking volume for outbound connecting flights increased by nearly 20% year-on-year, outpacing the overall growth rate of outbound flight bookings by 5 percentage points [1] - The analysis indicates that travelers opting for connecting flights tend to have longer travel periods, higher price sensitivity, and are primarily from non-first-tier cities [1] Group 2: Accommodation Preferences - There was an 80% year-on-year increase in bookings for family group travel products during the holiday, with a more than 200% increase in bookings for family-themed hotel rooms [3] - High-star hotels and boutique accommodations saw a notable rise in demand, particularly in first-tier cities like Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou [3] - Local and surrounding hotel stays in Suzhou experienced a 31% year-on-year increase in occupancy, indicating a trend towards "staycations" [3] Group 3: Cultural and Recreational Activities - The popularity of non-heritage markets surged, with related content visits increasing by over 300% during the holiday [4] - Theme parks and water parks saw significant booking increases, with theme park ticket bookings up 127% and water park ticket bookings up 165% year-on-year [4] - Popular theme parks included Beijing Universal Resort, Shanghai Disneyland, and Zhuhai Chimelong Ocean Kingdom, reflecting strong consumer interest in recreational activities [4]

Core Insights - The report released by Fliggy on June 2 indicates that per capita travel spending continues to grow compared to last year, with "light vacation" products, including tickets, camping, and chartered tours, seeing a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [1] - During the three-day holiday without adjustments, short-distance self-driving and nearby vacation options have become the preferred travel methods [1] - Fliggy's data shows that the booking volume for domestic car rental services increased by approximately 30% during the Dragon Boat Festival period compared to the previous year [1]

Core Insights - The tourism market in Hainan is experiencing a surge in family-oriented travel during the overlapping holidays of Dragon Boat Festival and Children's Day, with family orders accounting for 35% of bookings [2] - Hotel bookings for family rooms have seen a significant increase, with a 45% rise in searches for family-friendly accommodations compared to the same period last year [2][3] Group 1: Hotel Industry - Hotels in Hainan are adapting to the growing demand for family travel, with many reporting increased inquiries and bookings for family rooms and activities [3] - Specific hotels, such as Hyatt Place and voco, are offering tailored family packages that include various activities, enhancing the overall experience for families [3] Group 2: Activities and Attractions - Various unique activities are being organized across Hainan to attract family visitors, such as the "Children's Day Painting Carnival" at the Wenchang Mulan Bay, which allows children to engage creatively while learning about local culture [3] - Popular attractions like the Donggu Ridge Scenic Area are seeing increased family visits, with parents and children participating in outdoor activities to enjoy the natural beauty of the island [4] Group 3: Transportation Trends - The trend of renting cars for self-driving tours has gained popularity among families, with a 47% increase in rental bookings during the holiday period [4] - Hainan cities, particularly Sanya, are ranked among the top destinations for self-driving tours, indicating a shift in travel preferences among families [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - As the summer season approaches, Hainan's tourism enterprises are preparing to launch more diverse and high-quality products to meet the evolving demands of family travelers [4] - The "Tourism+" model is being utilized to enhance product offerings and service quality, aiming to provide a fulfilling experience for all visitors [4]

不确定的环境里，寻找确定性的新客群、 新场景、新价值。 以往在"吃喝玩乐"里的消费，能在出行时转化成更周到的酒店体验服务吗？ 美团和万豪的新合作回答了这一问题。5月28日，美团与万豪国际宣布达成战略合作，将发布联合会员，为会员群体提供"住宿+"等一站式旅游 服务，打造涵盖酒店空间到本地生活等多元场景的全方位体验。 | | | MARRIOTT 集团 BONVOY 万 家 旅 事 家 .. | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 联合会员惊喜发布 > | | | | | 注册好礼 388元惊喜券包 | 58元 万豪旅享家餐饮无门槛 | 5元×6张 美团神券 | 至高300元 佳就送优惠券包 | | | 会员等级直通 - | | 会员匹配成功最高可享 - | | | 美团 会员等级 | 大众点评 会员等级 | 万豪旅享家 会员等级 | 一 快速升级挑战计划 最 延迟退房 | | | 黑钻会员 | LV8 | 金卡会员 Fa | 会员折扣 | 食 迎宾赠礼 | | 黑金会员 | LV6-7 | 银卡会员 | 8 积分奖励 | 图 客房升级 | | 普通/白银/ 黄金/ ...

Group 1: Marriott and Meituan Partnership - Marriott Bonvoy announced a partnership with Meituan to integrate resources in accommodation, dining, and local lifestyle, creating a comprehensive experience from hotel stays to local activities [1] - From now until May 27, 2026, Meituan and Dianping members can match their membership levels to corresponding Marriott Bonvoy levels and participate in membership challenges for exclusive benefits [1] - Members can also receive a hospitality voucher package worth up to 388 yuan, covering various experiences [1] Group 2: Domestic Flight Fuel Surcharge Adjustment - Starting June 5, 2025, domestic flight fuel surcharges will be adjusted, with routes of 800 kilometers or less exempt from fuel surcharges, while those over 800 kilometers will incur a fee of 10 yuan per passenger per segment [2] - This adjustment marks a decrease of 10 yuan compared to previous rates, reaching a near one-year low [2] Group 3: Shanghai Peace Hotel Renovation - The Shanghai Peace Hotel will be upgraded to a Raffles brand flagship hotel by 2027, in collaboration between Accor Group and Jin Jiang International [2] - Originally built in 1929, the hotel will continue operations during the renovation and will join the global flagship hotels of Raffles in Singapore and London [2] Group 4: New World Hotel Profit Forecast - New World Hotels announced an expected after-tax profit of no less than 7 million HKD for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, reversing a loss of approximately 20.5 million HKD for the previous year [3] - The profit increase is attributed to the sale of several loss-making subsidiaries and a memorandum of waiver with noteholders, relieving the company of certain liabilities [3] Group 5: Opening of Jiaxing Hilton Hotel - Jiaxing Hilton Hotel officially opened on May 29, featuring 340 rooms and suites, located in the core area of Jiaxing County's high-speed rail new city [4] - The hotel is strategically positioned near Xitang and is approximately 3.5 kilometers from Jiaxing South Station, providing quick access to major cities and airports in the Yangtze River Delta [4] Group 6: Departure of Director at Lujiazui - Lujiazui announced the retirement of director Li Zuoqiang, who will no longer serve on the board or any other position within the company [5]