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金融期货早评-20250901
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 06:18
Group 1: Financial Futures - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Domestic prop - up policies are gradually exerting force. Promoting service consumption policies in September and real - estate policies are advancing. Overseas, the US economy shows resilience. The final effects of domestic policies need further observation, and attention should be paid to upcoming US economic data [1][2] - **Summary by Related Catalogs**: - **Macroeconomics**: Policies are being promoted both domestically and overseas. In China, service and real - estate policies are advancing, and manufacturing PMI slightly rebounds. In the US, economic data shows resilience, and there are tariff - related legal issues [1] - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The depreciation pressure of the RMB against the US dollar is slowing. In the short - term, it's about the rhythm of appreciation and has a low probability of returning to the "6 era". In the medium - term, it needs a decline in the US dollar index and improvement in the domestic economy [3][4][5] - **Stock Index**: After the release of two major data over the weekend, the market is expected to be volatile, with large - cap stock indices relatively stronger. It is recommended to hold long positions [7] - **Treasury Bonds**: After the release of August's manufacturing PMI, the bond market is not sensitive to fundamental data. If the stock market fluctuates at a high level, the bond market may rebound; otherwise, it may test the bottom again. It is recommended to take small - band bottom - fishing strategies [8][9] - **Container Shipping**: The decline in ONE's European - line spot cabin quotes is negative for futures prices. However, the ruling that Trump's global tariffs are illegal is positive for the global trade environment and EC prices. EC may show an oscillating or oscillating - upward trend [10][11] Group 2: Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and influencing factors. For example, precious metals are affected by Fed rate - cut expectations and Fed independence concerns; copper is in a state of multi - factor balance; aluminum is affected by macro and fundamental factors [12][16][20] - **Summary by Related Catalogs**: - **Gold & Silver**: The price is mainly affected by Fed rate - cut expectations and Fed independence concerns. In the short - term, it is expected to be strong. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold existing long positions [12][13][15] - **Copper**: Before the Fed's next rate decision on September 19, copper prices may continue to oscillate. In the fourth quarter, it is recommended to buy at low levels. The price is affected by multiple factors such as Fed rate cuts, supply and demand [16][17][18] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: - **Aluminum**: In the short - term, it is oscillating and bullish, but there is pressure above. It is recommended to build positions in batches on dips [20] - **Alumina**: It is weakly oscillating, with insufficient upward drive and limited downward space [21] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is oscillating and bullish, and can consider arbitrage operations [22] - **Zinc**: It is currently at the bottom and oscillating strongly in the short - term [22][23] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The market is oscillating this week, affected by macro and market factors. Nickel is expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan, and stainless steel between 12,500 - 13,100 yuan [23][26] - **Tin**: The price increase is driven by tight supply. It is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term, with a target price of 276,000 yuan per ton [27][28] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures market is expected to enter an oscillating and sorting stage. It is recommended to gradually close short positions and wait and see [29][31] - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [32][34] - **Polysilicon**: It is expected to be oscillating and bullish due to industry integration expectations [33][35] - **Lead**: It is oscillating narrowly, with limited upward and downward space [36] Ferrous Metals - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The ferrous metal market is generally under pressure. Steel products have a weak supply - demand pattern, and iron ore has increasing risks, while coal - coke and ferroalloys also face different challenges [38][40][43] - **Summary by Related Catalogs**: - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply - demand pattern of steel products is weak, and a negative feedback mechanism may form. It is recommended to maintain a bearish strategy and pay attention to demand in the peak season and policy changes [38][39] - **Iron Ore**: Although the current fundamentals are stable, the pressure on steel inventory and iron ore shipments is increasing, and the risk of price decline is rising [40][41] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market may oscillate widely at a high level, and coke may face price cuts after the parade. It is recommended to use an oscillating strategy for coking coal and consider selling hedging for coke [42][43] - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The supply is loose, and they are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to consider a long - spread strategy for the two [44][45] Energy and Chemicals - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Different energy and chemical products have different market trends. Crude oil is oscillating weakly, and other products such as LPG, PTA - PX, etc. are affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [46][53][55] - **Summary by Related Catalogs**: - **Crude Oil**: It is oscillating weakly. In September, there are negative factors such as seasonal decline in demand, and it is necessary to pay attention to key events and the Russia - Ukraine situation [46][48][49] - **LPG**: The market is oscillating. Supply is controllable, and demand changes little. The market is affected by multiple factors [50][51][52] - **PTA - PX**: The market is affected by supply - side news, and it is recommended to reduce the TA processing margin on rallies [53][54][55] - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The fundamentals of ethylene glycol are driven weakly, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range and consider option strategies in the long - term [56][58][59] - **Methanol**: It is under pressure. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions and sold put options and pay attention to Iranian shipments and port pick - up [60][61] - **PP**: The demand situation is unclear. The supply is increasing, and the future depends on whether the demand can maintain high - speed growth [62][63][64] - **PE**: The demand is recovering but not strong enough to drive. It is expected to be in an oscillating pattern and wait for a demand signal [65][66] - **PVC**: The price returns to the industrial level. With weak fundamentals, it is recommended to maintain a short - position allocation [67][68] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: For pure benzene, the supply is stable, demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. For styrene, inventory is increasing, and the outlook is bearish [69][70][71]
A股中期分红规模与数量创新高,810家公司拟派现超6400亿元
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-09-01 00:04
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a record high in mid-term cash dividends, with 810 companies planning to distribute a total of 642.81 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.56% in dividend amount and 15.06% in the number of companies participating, both reaching historical highs [1][2]. Group 1: Dividend Distribution - 810 companies have announced mid-term cash dividend plans for 2025, with a total proposed payout of 642.81 billion yuan [1]. - Over 300 companies are planning to issue mid-term cash dividends for the first time [7]. - Among companies with dividends exceeding 1 billion yuan, "state-owned enterprises" account for about 30% [1][3]. Group 2: Major Contributors - China Mobile leads with a proposed cash dividend of 54.08 billion yuan, distributing 2.5025 yuan per share [3]. - Other major telecom operators, China Telecom and China Unicom, plan to distribute 16.58 billion yuan and 3.477 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - The "three oil giants" (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) collectively plan to distribute over 80 billion yuan in mid-term dividends [3][4]. Group 3: Performance and Support - A significant number of companies have shown robust performance, with 522 out of 810 companies reporting a year-on-year increase in net profit [5]. - Companies like Muyuan Foods and WuXi AppTec have demonstrated exceptional profit growth, with Muyuan's net profit increasing nearly 12 times [6]. - Haier Smart Home reported a revenue increase of 10.22% and a net profit increase of 15.59%, leading to a proposed dividend of 2.69 yuan per share [6]. Group 4: Market Implications - The trend of increasing cash dividends is seen as a sign of market maturity, enhancing long-term returns and improving market ecology [8]. - The rise in dividend payouts is expected to stabilize market expectations and attract more investors [8].
逐梦万里深地——记中国石油塔里木油田企业首席专家王春生
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-08-31 06:35
有些深地塔科1井的工作人员说,他们有点怕王春生。最初对他的一些做法也不太理解。 今年年初,我国首口超万米科探井——深地塔科1井在地下10910米胜利完钻。该井先后创造了全球尾管固井最深、全球电缆成像测井最深、全球陆上钻井突破万米最快、亚洲直井钻探最深等工程 万米钻探,步步惊心,每一米都是对未知的挑战,每一寸都是向极限的突破。那么多世界级技术难题、井控风险,那么多来自五湖四海的专业队伍,需要一个集现场技术总负责、生产组织总指挥 善用人才 高品质堵漏浆是控制风险的基础,这需要钻井液专业方面的知识。当天晚上,王春生就带着大家研制80%浓度的堵漏浆。从选材料到调配方、定方案,他都提出大胆又新奇的专业意见。 一夜无眠。第二天晨曦初露时分,堵漏浆试验成功了。但要将如此高浓度、流动性极差的堵漏浆顺利送达1万多米深的井下,常规施工措施效果欠佳。于是,王春生又给钻井专业的人支招。他打 按照王春生提出的办法,新研制的堵漏浆不仅畅通无阻到达万米井下,而且仅用两个小时就成功解决了井漏问题。王春生的"疯狂"想法变成了成效显著的现实,深地塔科1井得以继续钻进。 扎实钻研 王春生有胆有识、敢作敢当,这些特点在他工作时展现得淋漓尽致。 井身 ...
中国海上稠油热采技术突破,累计产量超500万吨,领跑全球
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-31 04:26
Core Insights - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has achieved a significant technological breakthrough in offshore heavy oil thermal recovery, with cumulative production surpassing 5 million tons, making China the first country to master and successfully apply large-scale offshore heavy oil thermal recovery technology [1][3] Industry Overview - Heavy oil accounts for 70% of the remaining global oil resources, making it a crucial area for oil production increase [1] - The thermal recovery technique involves injecting high-temperature and high-pressure steam into the reservoir to reduce the viscosity of heavy oil, transforming it into a more easily extractable "light oil" [1] Project Development - CNOOC's offshore heavy oil thermal recovery projects are primarily located in the Bohai Sea, with successful operations in key oil fields such as Nanpu 35-2, Luda 21-2, and Jinzhou 23-2 [3] - The successful operation of these oil fields not only supports China's oil production but also provides valuable experience and reference for global heavy oil extraction [3] Future Outlook - The technological breakthrough demonstrates CNOOC's strong capabilities in offshore oil extraction and injects new vitality into energy security for China and the world [3] - With continuous maturation and improvement of the technology, CNOOC is expected to lead the development trend of global heavy oil extraction technology in the future [3]
全球无先例,我国成功实现
Ke Ji Ri Bao· 2025-08-31 02:42
Core Insights - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has achieved significant progress in the large-scale application of offshore heavy oil thermal recovery technology, with cumulative production exceeding 5 million tons, making China the first country globally to realize large-scale thermal recovery development of offshore heavy oil [1] Group 1: Technology and Equipment - Heavy oil, characterized by high viscosity, density, and poor flowability, poses significant extraction challenges, especially in offshore environments where operational space is limited and costs are high [1] - CNOOC has developed world-leading equipment capable of withstanding temperatures up to 350°C for thermal recovery, including compact and efficient thermal injection equipment, downhole safety control systems, and long-lasting sand control devices [1] - The company has also designed and constructed the world's first mobile thermal injection platform, "Thermal Recovery No. 1," filling a gap in China's offshore heavy oil thermal recovery equipment sector [1] Group 2: Production Areas - The offshore heavy oil thermal recovery operations are primarily concentrated in the Bohai Sea, with key thermal recovery oil fields established, including Nanpu 35-2, Luda 21-2, and Jinzhou 23-2 [1]
此前全球无先例!我国成功实现海上稠油规模化热采开发
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-08-31 01:33
Core Insights - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has achieved significant progress in the large-scale application of offshore heavy oil thermal recovery technology, with cumulative production exceeding 5 million tons, making China the first country globally to achieve large-scale thermal recovery of offshore heavy oil [1][4] Industry Overview - Heavy oil, characterized by high viscosity, density, and poor flowability, poses significant extraction challenges, especially in offshore environments where operational space is limited and costs are high [1] - Approximately 70% of the world's remaining oil resources consist of heavy oil, making it a primary focus for oil-producing countries aiming to increase production [1] Technological Advancements - CNOOC has developed a "few wells, high yield" thermal recovery theory, utilizing a large well spacing approach combined with high-intensity injection and multi-phase thermal fluid collaboration to enhance single well output [4] - The company has successfully created world-leading equipment capable of withstanding temperatures of 350°C for thermal recovery, along with a mobile thermal injection platform, "Thermal Recovery No. 1," filling a gap in offshore heavy oil thermal recovery equipment [4] Production Capacity and Future Plans - The development of the thermal recovery technology system and core equipment has accelerated the construction of offshore heavy oil production capacity, with expectations to exceed 1 million tons in production by 2024 [4] - CNOOC plans to intensify technological research and expedite the development of heavy oil fields to continuously enhance the ability to utilize heavy oil reserves [4]
我国成为全球首个实现海上稠油规模化热采开发的国家
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-31 01:21
Core Insights - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has achieved significant progress in the large-scale application of offshore heavy oil thermal recovery technology, with cumulative production exceeding 5 million tons, making China the first country globally to realize large-scale thermal recovery development of offshore heavy oil [1][3] Industry Overview - Heavy oil is characterized by high viscosity, high density, poor fluidity, and a tendency to solidify, making extraction challenging. Compared to onshore oil fields, offshore operations face smaller working spaces and higher costs, presenting dual challenges in technical equipment and economic efficiency [3] - Approximately 70% of the world's remaining oil resources consist of heavy oil, which is a primary focus for oil-producing countries aiming to increase production. The industry primarily employs thermal recovery methods for high-viscosity oil, which involves injecting high-temperature, high-pressure steam into the reservoir to reduce viscosity and convert heavy oil into more easily extractable "light oil" [3] Development Focus - China's offshore heavy oil thermal recovery is mainly concentrated in the Bohai Sea, with several key thermal recovery oil fields established, including Nanpu 35-2, Ludao 21-2, and Jinzhou 23-2 [3]
中曼石油(603619):油价下滑影响二季度业绩 海外项目开启公司未来成长
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-31 00:29
公司原油产量稳步提升,不过国际油价大幅下滑拖累业绩。2025 年上半年,公司油气产量持续攀升,合计 生产原油43.89 万吨,同比增加8.37%,生产油气当量54.82 万吨。温宿项目作为公司产量核心支柱,2025 年上半年生产原油31.80 万吨,同比增加0.54%,伴生气2,417.85 万方,合计生产油气当量33.73 万吨; 坚戈项目产量显著提升,上半年生产原油12.09 万吨,同比增加36.30%,伴生气11,292 万方,合计生产 油气当量21.09 万吨。2025 年上半年原油及衍生品销量共计37.05 万吨,其中温宿区块销量为26.93 万 吨;坚戈区块销量为10.12 万吨。从价格来看,2025Q2 布油均价为66.71 美元/桶,环比一季度74.98 美 元/桶下滑11.0%,受此影响,公司二季度油气销售板块经营利润环比显著下滑。此外,公司二季度财务 费用1.37 亿元,环比一季度大幅增长1.6 亿元,主要是公司伊拉克油田建设基金摊销增加利息费用所 致。 作为国内首家拥有自主油田的民营企业,在不考虑未来股本变动的情况下,假设布油约63美元/桶,预 计公司2025 年-2027 年归母净利润 ...
【8点见】投诉鲁迅夹烟墙画当事人被封号
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-08-31 00:14
央视网消息:每天8点,央视网为您梳理24小时内发生在咱们身边的大小事儿。 ·我国海上稠油热采累计产量突破500万吨。 ·2025年上海合作组织峰会新闻中心举行专场吹风会:上合示范区已落地项目投资超1500亿元。 ·韩国多地中学遭遇"诈弹"威胁。 ·美国联邦巡回上诉法院裁定特朗普对多国征收关税违法。 ·以色列财长:若哈马斯拒绝放下武器就吞并加沙。 ·美国务院撤销巴勒斯坦政要赴美签证。 ·越南将对13920名囚犯实施国庆特赦。 ·第四批国家级抗战纪念设施、遗址名录公布。 ·中国气象局启动重大气象灾害(台风)四级应急响应。 ·水利部:全国7条河流发生超警洪水。 ·财政部:前7个月国有企业营业总收入47.3万亿元。 ·山东省蓬莱第二中学通报:一教师与学生不文明聊天被辞退。 ·八名与以色列情报机构关联人员在伊朗东部被捕。 ·英国:不邀请以色列政府代表团出席伦敦防务展。 ·投诉鲁迅夹烟墙画当事人道歉后账号已被封。微博回应:多次借控烟之名违规推广所谓尼古丁袋。 ·河北蔚县通报"越野车意外坠崖致3人被困":2人获救1人去世。 ·河南跨省查办一起私域直播案:公司为卖口服液雇医生拍虚假视频,3个月吸引3.7万人观看。 ·4名青年 ...
全球无先例,我国成功实现→
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-08-30 14:07
Core Insights - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) announced significant progress in the large-scale application of offshore heavy oil thermal recovery technology, achieving a cumulative production of over 5 million tons, making China the first country globally to realize large-scale thermal recovery of offshore heavy oil [2] Group 1: Technology and Equipment - Heavy oil, characterized by high viscosity, density, poor fluidity, and tendency to solidify, poses significant extraction challenges, especially in offshore environments where operational space is limited and costs are high [2] - CNOOC has developed world-leading equipment capable of withstanding temperatures of 350°C for thermal recovery, along with efficient small-scale heating injection equipment, downhole safety control systems, and long-lasting sand control devices [2] - The company has designed and constructed the world's first mobile heating injection platform, "Thermal Recovery No. 1," filling a gap in China's offshore heavy oil thermal recovery equipment sector [2] Group 2: Production Areas - The offshore heavy oil thermal recovery efforts are primarily concentrated in the Bohai Sea, with key thermal recovery oil fields established, including Nanpu 35-2, Luda 21-2, and Jinzhou 23-2 [2]