截至5月7日收盘，航空发动机概念上涨2.86%，位居概念板块涨幅第9，板块内，66股上涨，晨曦航 空、华伍股份等20%涨停，中超控股、宗申动力、润贝航科等涨停，爱乐达、晟楠科技、航亚科技等涨 幅居前，分别上涨18.31%、12.57%、7.65%。跌幅居前的有集智股份、迈信林、豪能股份等，分别下跌 3.33%、2.49%、2.13%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅 | 今日换手率 | 主力资金流量（万 | 主力资金净流入比率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （%） | （%） | 元） | （%） | | 001696 | 宗申动 力 | 10.02 | 8.12 | 83173.92 | 48.53 | | 300581 | 晨曦航 空 | 19.96 | 15.93 | 29029.52 | 29.18 | | 300095 | 华伍股 份 | 19.94 | 21.63 | 15209.78 | 26.42 | | 300775 | 三角防 务 | 5.41 | 9.79 | 7963.51 | 5.78 | | ...

Group 1 - The U.S. State Department announced the approval of a $310.5 million deal to sell F-16 aircraft parts and related services to Ukraine, which will be included in a mineral development fund established under a mineral agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine [1] - Experts suggest that the disclosure of the F-16 transaction indicates a clearer understanding of the mineral agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine, with Ukraine seeking to exchange potential future benefits from the mineral agreement for military support, including F-16s [1][5] - The transaction is seen as a means for the U.S. to exert influence over Russia, indicating that the U.S. is not genuinely pursuing peace between Russia and Ukraine but rather seeking to profit from the ongoing conflict [5] Group 2 - Ukraine received F-16 aircraft from NATO countries last July, but the outdated technology of these aircraft has not significantly altered the battlefield situation as desired by Ukraine [3] - The sale of F-16 parts and services is unlikely to change the current military dynamics, as the effectiveness of these aircraft remains in question [3] - The relationship between the U.S. and Ukraine may temporarily improve due to this transaction, but it could lead to increased tensions between the U.S. and Russia, complicating any potential peace negotiations [5]

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨三角防务（300775.SZ） [Table_Title] 环比增长或反映需求复苏，推进募投项目开拓新 业务 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 24 年年报和 25 年一季报，24A 实现营收 15.9 亿，同比减少 30.02%；归母净利润 3.8 亿，同比减少 49.12%；扣非归母净利润 3.32 亿，同比减少 52.63%。其中 24Q4 实现营收 2.27 亿，同比减少 29.8%，环比减少 28.75%；归母净利润 0.81 亿，同比减少 37.89%，环比 增长 382.99%；扣非归母净利润 0.68 亿，同比减少 45.09%，环比减少 283.73%。25Q1 实现 营收 4.03 亿，同比减少 21.07%；归母净利润 1.29 亿，同比减少 22.92%；扣非归母净利润 1.24 亿，同比减少 25.08%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王贺嘉 杨继虎 SAC：S0490520110004 SAC：S0490525040001 SFC：BUX462 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% resea ...

Core Viewpoint - China has requested domestic airlines to stop accepting Boeing aircraft and suspend purchases of related equipment and parts as a countermeasure against U.S. tariffs, significantly impacting Boeing's market position in China [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Boeing - Boeing's stock has dropped over 10% since the beginning of the year, with a 2.4% decline following the news of China's actions [1]. - The cost of U.S.-made aircraft and parts is expected to double due to tariffs, making them uncompetitive in the Chinese market [1]. - The price of a Boeing 737 Max, originally $120 million, could rise to $270 million after tariffs, far exceeding the cost of Airbus A320 series aircraft [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - In 2018, China accounted for 25% of Boeing's global deliveries, but this figure is now approaching zero due to the new tariffs [1]. - Chinese airlines have historically been significant customers for Boeing, with a total of approximately 616 Boeing aircraft in operation by major Chinese airlines as of the end of 2023 [3]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Boeing's CEO has indicated that the company may not continue manufacturing aircraft for Chinese airlines if they return the planes, highlighting the strained relationship [3]. - Analysts suggest that the refusal to accept Boeing aircraft is a reasonable response to the high tariffs imposed by the U.S., which have made purchasing Boeing planes financially unfeasible for Chinese airlines [5]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The ongoing tariff war is seen as a significant factor in the decline of Boeing's market share in China, with potential long-term consequences for the company's revenue [5][7]. - Some analysts underestimate the impact of Boeing's potential supply halt on China, failing to recognize that China has already been reducing its Boeing aircraft purchases [7].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect TransDigm Group (TDG) to report quarterly earnings of $8.85 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10.8%, with revenues projected at $2.17 billion, up 12.9% from the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, there has been a downward revision of 1% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, indicating a collective reconsideration by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate 'Net sales to external customers- Non-aviation' at $46.65 million, indicating a year-over-year change of +1.4% [5]. - 'Net sales to external customers- Airframe' are projected to reach $1.10 billion, reflecting a +14.3% change from the prior-year quarter [5]. - 'Net sales to external customers- Power & Control' are expected to be $1.04 billion, with a year-over-year change of +14.1% [6]. - 'Net sales to external customers- Airframe- Commercial and non-aerospace OEM' are estimated at $346.21 million, indicating a +12.4% change [6]. - 'Net sales to external customers- Airframe- Defense' is projected at $328.12 million, reflecting a +4.2% change [7]. - 'Net sales to external customers- Power & Control- Defense' is expected to reach $442.99 million, indicating a +5% change [7]. - 'Net sales to external customers- Power & Control- Commercial and non-aerospace aftermarket' is projected at $327.62 million, with a significant year-over-year change of +62.2% [8]. - 'Net sales to external customers- Power & Control- Commercial and non-aerospace OEM' is expected to be $210.91 million, reflecting a -27.3% change [8]. - 'Net sales to external customers- Airframe- Commercial and non-aerospace aftermarket' is projected at $401.97 million, indicating a +19.6% change [9]. EBITDA Estimates - Analysts forecast 'EBITDA- Power & Control' to reach $589.29 million, compared to $519 million from the previous year [9]. - 'EBITDA- Non-aviation' is expected to be $17.78 million, down from $20 million year-over-year [9]. - 'EBITDA- Airframe' is projected at $537.98 million, compared to $510 million from the prior year [10]. Stock Performance - TransDigm shares have shown a return of +1% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -0.7% change, indicating a potential alignment with overall market performance [11].

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