智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研究报告称，虽然近期市场的回调，让部分投资人开始对市场的情况有所担忧，但是目前4000点左右的位置，建议大家 重拾信心、重整旗鼓，备战马年的第一波上涨周期。展望后续1-2个月，A股很可能迎来一段"天时地利人和"的上涨机会。配置方向上，广发证券认为， 类比去年机器人，今年可能类似的方向包括字节产业链(春晚投流，对应AI应用和国产算力)、太空光伏等。 在今年元旦后的报告中，广发证券曾经提到： "岁末年初的路演中，我们观察到有不少绝对收益的资金，在新的一年都有权益资产配置的需求，无非是时点选择的问题。交流下来，大家普遍认为，虽 然1月行情如何存在分歧，但是开年上证指数4000点左右的位置，大概率不是2026年指数的高点，于是，很多资金抱着"晚买不如早买"的心态，在元旦后 马上就加仓A股" 指数随即开启一波快速上涨。 如今，经历了1月份的潮起潮落，上证指数再次回到了4000点附近的位置，那么上述逻辑是否会再次演绎? 首先，过去一个月中影响市场的一个重要变量——各类宽基ETF持续大幅度流出，目前来看已经基本告一段落。如下图所示，1.15日至1.29日期间，宽基 ETF经历了连续两周的大幅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The key factors affecting the inter - bank capital situation during the Spring Festival holiday are the change in M0. The 9 - day Spring Festival in 2026 may lead to greater cash leakage and slower cash return to banks, resulting in a lower excess reserve level in the commercial banking system [2][12]. - The cash leakage (M0 month - on - month increase) caused by residents' cash withdrawals during the Spring Festival may exceed 1.7 trillion yuan, and with the 500 - billion - yuan 6M term repurchase "maturity - placement" misalignment, the pre - Spring Festival capital gap may exceed 2.2 trillion yuan [3][13]. - The central bank started to issue 14 - day reverse repurchase on February 5, and the start date and amount of the reverse repurchase across the Spring Festival holiday met expectations. The current low certificate of deposit spread and credit spread fully reflect the market expectation of stable and loose funds and remaining carry trade space [1][4]. - During the Spring Festival holiday, more attention should be paid to the speed of cash return to banks and the appreciation of the RMB. The 9 - day holiday may cause residents to return to work later, and RMB appreciation may consume commercial bank excess reserves [4][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 The Focus on the Capital Situation around the Spring Festival Holiday - The main factor affecting the inter - bank capital situation during the Spring Festival is the change in M0. The 9 - day Spring Festival in 2026 will lead to greater cash leakage and slower cash return to banks, resulting in lower excess reserves in the commercial banking system [2][12]. - The cash leakage (M0 month - on - month increase) during the Spring Festival may exceed 1.7 trillion yuan, and combined with the 500 - billion - yuan 6M term repurchase "maturity - placement" misalignment, the pre - Spring Festival capital gap may exceed 2.2 trillion yuan [3][13]. - The central bank issued 14 - day reverse repurchase on February 5, and the start date and amount of the reverse repurchase across the Spring Festival holiday met expectations. The current low spreads reflect the market expectation of stable and loose funds [1][4]. - Attention should be paid to the speed of cash return to banks and RMB appreciation during the holiday [4][15]. 3.2 Narrow - sense Liquidity 3.2.1 Central Bank Operations - Short - term liquidity: The central bank conducted peak - shaving and valley - filling operations. From February 2 to February 6, the net issuance of pledged reverse repurchase was - 756 billion yuan. Medium - and long - term liquidity: The 3M term repurchase was renewed with an excess of 100 billion yuan [16]. 3.2.2 Institution's Lending and Borrowing Situations - Capital supply (lenders): The net lending of large - scale banks reached a record high. Capital demand (borrowers): The absolute financing balance was high, and the relative leverage ratio increased [22][34]. 3.2.3 Repurchase Market Transaction Situation - Capital volume and price: The volume was abundant, and the price was stable. The capital sentiment index showed a gradual easing trend [42][45]. 3.2.4 Interest Rate Swaps - The cost of interest rate swaps decreased slightly, and the spread between CDs and IRS remained at a low level [49]. 3.3 Government Bonds 3.3.1 Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds - The net payment of government bonds next week will increase significantly. The net payment in the past week was 460.4 billion yuan, and it is expected to be 643.7 billion yuan next week [52]. 3.3.2 Government Bond Maturity Structure - The report presents the issuance and proportion of government bonds with different maturities in 2024, 2025, and 2026, including treasury bonds and local government bonds [57][58]. 3.4 Certificates of Deposit 3.4.1 Absolute Yield - The report shows the SHIBOR yield curve and the AAA - rated certificate of deposit yield curve and their changes compared with the previous week [62]. 3.4.2 Issuance and Stock Situations - As of February 6, the issuance and stock structures of certificates of deposit of different types of banks are presented, including the issuance and stock amounts and proportions of different maturities [66][67]. 3.4.3 Relative Valuation - The report analyzes the spreads of certificates of deposit, including the spreads between the 1 - year AAA - rated certificate of deposit yield and R007, DR007, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield, and their quantiles since 2020 [69].

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 8 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 存款的流向 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 钟林楠 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260520110001 021-38003572 010-59136677 guolei@gf.com.cn zhonglinnan@gf.com.cn 请注意，钟林楠并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 近期存款搬家叙事再度升温，其中一个叙事逻辑是 2026 年有较多高息定存到期，在低利率环境下，这些定存 到期后会进行资产再配置，流向金融市场。本篇将就这一叙事做出一些拆解和探讨。 在前期报告《居民活动收支表的构建、分析与运用》中，我们曾对存款搬家叙事做了初步讨论： 从逻辑上讲，从存款搬家看股市或债市流动性是一个相对狭义的视角，它仅考虑了存款资产用于投资股票或债 券的规模，但实际上居民可支配收入+贷款获得的总收入扣掉消费、非 ...

- The "Timing Radar Six-Facet Chart" is a multi-dimensional timing framework that evaluates equity market performance based on liquidity, economic conditions, valuation, capital flow, technical trends, and crowding metrics. It aggregates 21 indicators into four categories: "Valuation Cost-Effectiveness," "Macro Fundamentals," "Capital & Trend," and "Crowding & Reversal," generating a composite timing score ranging from [-1,1] [1][6][8] - Liquidity factors include "Monetary Direction Factor," which calculates the average change in monetary policy rates and short-term market rates over 90 days. A positive value indicates monetary easing, scoring 1 this week [10][11]. The "Monetary Strength Factor" uses the deviation of DR007 from the 7-year reverse repo rate, smoothed and standardized. This week, it scored 0, indicating a neutral signal [12][13]. The "Credit Direction Factor" evaluates the trend of medium-to-long-term loans over 12 months. A positive trend scores 1, which was observed this week [15][16]. The "Credit Strength Factor" measures the deviation of new RMB loans from expectations. This week, it scored -1, signaling a significant underperformance [18][19] - Economic factors include "Growth Direction Factor," derived from PMI data (manufacturing and non-manufacturing), calculating the 12-month average and year-over-year change. A downward trend scored -1 this week [20][21]. The "Growth Strength Factor" measures PMI deviations from expectations. This week, it scored -1, indicating significant underperformance [23][24]. The "Inflation Direction Factor" combines CPI and PPI data to assess inflation trends. An upward trend scored -1 this week [25][26]. The "Inflation Strength Factor" calculates CPI and PPI deviations from expectations. This week, it scored 0, indicating a neutral signal [27][31] - Valuation factors include "Shiller ERP," calculated as 1/Shiller PE minus the 10-year government bond yield, standardized over six years. This week, it scored -0.04, slightly improving [28][29]. The "PB Factor" uses the price-to-book ratio, standardized over six years, and scored -0.66 this week, showing a slight increase [32][33]. The "AIAE Factor" measures equity allocation relative to total market capitalization and debt, standardized over six years. This week, it remained at -1.00 [34][35] - Capital flow factors include "Margin Financing Increment," which compares the 120-day average increase in margin financing to the 240-day average. A positive trend scored 1 this week [37][39]. The "Trading Volume Trend" evaluates the logarithmic moving average distance of trading volume over 120 and 240 days. A positive trend scored 1 this week [40][42]. External capital flow indicators include "China Sovereign CDS Spread," which assesses the 20-day differential of CDS spreads. A positive differential scored -1 this week [44][45]. The "Overseas Risk Aversion Index" evaluates the 20-day differential of Citi RAI Index. A positive differential scored -1 this week [46][47] - Technical factors include "Price Trend," which uses moving average distances (120/240 days) to assess market trends and strength. This week, it scored 1, indicating a positive trend [49][50]. The "New Highs and Lows" metric evaluates the difference between new highs and lows among index constituents over the past year. A positive difference scored -1 this week [51][53] - Crowding metrics include "Option Implied Premium," derived from the implied premium in options markets. A positive signal scored -1 this week [55][59]. The "Option VIX Index" measures implied volatility expectations. A positive signal scored 1 this week [56][57]. The "Option SKEW Index" evaluates implied skewness in options markets. A positive signal scored -1 this week [60][62]. The "Convertible Bond Pricing Deviation" measures the deviation of convertible bond prices from model estimates, standardized over three years. A positive deviation scored -1 this week [63][64] - Composite timing score for this week is -0.30, indicating a neutral-to-bearish outlook [6][8][9]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the non-bank financial sector [1] Core Views - The non-bank financial sector has shown resilience, with various sub-sectors outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index recently [9][10] - The report highlights the ongoing regulatory tightening on virtual currencies by eight government departments, which may impact market dynamics [16] - The insurance sector is expected to see significant growth in new business value (NBV) and profitability in 2026, driven by favorable market conditions and product demand [23][33] - The securities industry is undergoing transformation, with potential new growth points emerging from market recovery and supportive policies [21] - The trust industry is entering a stable transition phase, while the futures market continues to maintain high transaction volumes [40][41] Summary by Sections 1. Recent Performance of Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sectors - All sub-sectors of non-bank financials outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index in the last five trading days [9] - The multi-financial sector rose by 0.49%, while the securities and insurance sectors fell by 0.63% and 0.73%, respectively [9] 2. Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sector Insights 2.1 Securities - February trading volume decreased month-on-month, with average daily stock trading at 28,613 billion yuan, a 17.64% decline from the previous month but a 40.43% increase year-on-year [14] - The margin balance reached 26,809 billion yuan, up 49.43% year-on-year [14] - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities industry is projected at 1.2x for 2026 [21] 2.2 Insurance - The insurance sector is projected to see a significant increase in NBV, with expectations of a 50% year-on-year growth in net profit for 2025 [23] - The total premium income for life insurance is expected to reach 52,696 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year increase [27] - The "insurance + health care" model is gaining traction, with ongoing developments in commercial health insurance [30] 2.3 Multi-Financial - The trust industry saw its asset scale reach 32.43 trillion yuan by mid-2025, a 20.11% year-on-year increase [34] - The futures market recorded a transaction volume of 9.51 billion contracts and a transaction value of 90.81 trillion yuan in December 2025, marking a 45.17% and 58.55% year-on-year growth, respectively [41] 3. Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The non-bank financial sector is currently undervalued, providing a safety margin for investors [21] - The insurance sector is favored due to its recovery potential and improving liability side, while the securities sector is expected to benefit from market recovery and policy support [21] - Recommended companies include China Life, Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CITIC Securities, and Tonghuashun [21]

Core Viewpoint - Nanjing Securities has announced the appointment of Xia Hongjian as the new general manager, indicating a potential shift in leadership strategy and direction for the company [1][3]. Company Overview - Nanjing Securities was established in December 1990 and has undergone several transformations, including becoming a joint-stock company in 2012 and being listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in June 2018 [3]. - As of January 2026, the company has a registered capital of 4.4 billion yuan, with a diverse range of services including securities brokerage, underwriting, asset management, and financial derivatives [3]. Financial Performance - For the third quarter of 2025, Nanjing Securities reported total revenue of 2.262 billion yuan, an increase of 255 million yuan from the previous year, marking a 12.72% year-on-year growth [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 913 million yuan, up by 217 million yuan from the same period last year, reflecting a 31.18% increase year-on-year [3]. - The company reported a negative cash flow from operating activities of -3.33 billion yuan [3]. Key Financial Ratios - The latest debt-to-asset ratio stands at 78.13% [4]. - Return on equity (ROE) is recorded at 5.10%, an increase of 1.10 percentage points compared to the previous year [4]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is 0.25 yuan, which is an increase of 0.06 yuan year-on-year, representing a 31.58% growth [4]. Shareholder Structure - The number of shareholders is approximately 108,100, with the top ten shareholders holding 2.008 billion shares, accounting for 54.46% of the total share capital [5]. - The largest shareholder is Nanjing Zijin Investment Group Co., Ltd., holding 25.0% of the shares [6]. Recent Developments - On January 15, 2025, Nanjing Securities announced the completion of a stock issuance of approximately 713 million A-shares, increasing the total share capital from approximately 3.686 billion shares to about 4.4 billion shares [6].

港股通是内地与香港股票市场交易互联互通机制的重要组成部分，通过这一机制，内地投资者可在规定 范围内买卖香港联合交易所上市的股票。参与港股通交易并非无门槛，而是需要满足监管部门设定的一 系列要求，这些要求旨在保障交易合规性与投资者适当性，相关规则根据市场发展情况修订完善，2025 年全国最新修订的法案法规对此作出了明确规定。 个人投资者参与港股通交易的资产门槛需符合明确标准。根据2025年修订的《内地与香港股票市场交易 互联互通机制若干规定》，个人投资者申请开通港股通权限前20个交易日内，证券账户及资金账户内的 日均资产不得低于人民币50万元。此处资产计算范围不包含投资者通过融资融券业务融入的资金和持有 的证券，仅统计其自有资金与证券的日均余额，确保资产门槛的评估基于投资者实际可支配的金融资 源。 个人投资者还需具备相应的交易经验。监管要求个人投资者需拥有2年以上证券交易经验，这里的交易 经验指投资者参与境内或境外证券市场交易的实际时长，以中国证券登记结算有限责任公司等权威机构 出具的交易记录为认定依据。这一要求旨在确保投资者具备基本的市场认知与操作能力，能够应对港股 市场与内地市场的差异。 机构投资者参与港股 ...

文/飞云 2023年至2025年三年间，A股新上市公司合计529家，其中2023年313家，2024年100家，2025年116家；沪主 板76家、科创板101家，深主板45家、创业板181家；北交所126家。本文统计这529家上市公司的中介机构 签字人员，看看谁是近三年来A股最强IPO签字保代、律师、会计师。 一、签字保荐代表人 2023年至2025年，A股IPO项目量最多的签字保代为国泰海通（原国泰君安）的李懿，业务单数为4单；中信 证券的安楠、陈泽、徐峰，华泰联合的王哲、姚黎，东方证券的刘俊清，中信建投的吴建航项目量均为3 单，并列第二。 | 排名 | IPO签字保代 | 保荐机构 | 小号申数 | 签字项目 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 多利科技 锦江航运 | | | 22 | 国泰海通 | 4 | | | | | | | 肯特股份 | | | | DI | | 海安集团 | | | | | | 美心翼申 | | 2 | 安楠 | 中信证券 | 3 | 雪祺电气 | | | | | | 营帆科技 | | | | | | 高华科技 | | 2 | ...

——周末五分钟全知道（2 月第 2 期） [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： [分析师： Table_Author]刘晨明 SAC 执证号：S0260524020001 SFC CE No. BVH021 010-59136616 liuchenming@gf.com.cn [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | 创业板 50 指数：龙头出海， | 2026-02-04 | | --- | --- | | 链动全球:指数研选系列报告 | | | "沃什预期"与美元潮落： | 2026-02-01 | | 全球股市定价锚的切换与重 | | | 构:——港股&海外周聚焦（2 | | | 月第 1 期） | | | 中美最新财报中的行业配置 | 2026-02-01 | | 线索 | | [联系人： Table_Contacts] 毕露露 18600442697 bilulu@gf.com.cn [Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2026 年 2 月 8 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 天时地利人和：新一轮上涨周期 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / ...

风险提示 我们通过量能、价格、资金和衍生品四个维度中八大指标独家构建了港股情绪指数。该指数能够较好的 识别市场拐点区域，该指数向上/向下突破70/30的阈值后，恒指未来1/5/10/20下跌/上涨的概率基本在 70%-80%左右。并且，2018/12/31-2026/1/2，基于恒指/恒科的情绪指数择时多头策略的超额收益高达 43.9%/159.8%，年化波动率为17.0%/28.0%（vs 指数本身的23.8%/32.3%）。 情绪指标显示，港股已到值得重点关注的区间。截至本周五，港股情绪指数周环比回落超24.5%至 39.9°，回落至去年12月19日底部的水平，并跌穿滚动一年均值-1.5倍标准差。其中，做空占比MA5周内 升至17.5%(近一年93%分位数)，叠加RSI、恒指成分股创60日新高占比和中小盘成交占比回落，对情绪 走弱的贡献较大。 1、历史经验和指标可能存在失效风险； 本文源自：券商研报精选 2、不同区间统计可能存在结论差异风险； 3、因数据不完备导致计算结果与实际结果存在误差的风险。 ...