Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic synthetic resin market, continuously expanding into biomass chemicals and electronic chemicals. The growth in demand for AI servers and the ongoing domestic substitution of electronic resins are expected to drive the demand for PPO and other electronic resins [2][4][6]. - The report highlights the company's orderly business layout and its potential for growth in electronic resin demand driven by advancements in AI and other fields [2][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a strong position in synthetic resins and is expanding into biomass chemicals and electronic chemicals. It has achieved significant milestones in production capacity and technology, particularly in phenolic resins and furan resins [6][13][14]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.351 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.67%, and a net profit of 501 million RMB, up 51.19% year-on-year. The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 2.892 billion RMB, reflecting a 16.13% year-on-year growth [22][23]. - The company forecasts net profits of 1.209 billion RMB, 1.475 billion RMB, and 1.876 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.43 RMB, 1.74 RMB, and 2.22 RMB [4][5]. Product Segmentation - The company's product lines include synthetic resin products, advanced electronic materials, and biomass products. The revenue from advanced electronic materials and battery materials is gradually increasing, indicating a shift in product structure [23][24]. - The company has a production capacity of 648,600 tons/year for phenolic resins and is the world's largest producer of casting furan resins [6][18]. Market Trends - The demand for electronic resins is expected to rise significantly due to the rapid development of AI and the transition to high-frequency and high-speed applications in the PCB industry. The global market for electronic resins used in copper-clad laminates is estimated to be around 3.302 billion USD, with the Chinese market accounting for approximately 2.418 billion USD [6][33]. - The company is also advancing in the battery materials sector, with plans to expand its production of porous carbon and hard carbon anode materials, which are essential for the growing electric vehicle and energy storage markets [6][15][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The plastic market is in a triple dilemma of "supply pressure, demand constraints, and cost collapse." Without strong policy intervention or explosive demand growth, the plastic futures 2601 contract will maintain a weak and volatile trend, and its price center of gravity will continue to decline [2][7] Summary by Related Contents Crude Oil Price Decline - Recently, due to OPEC+ continuous production increase, intensifying global economic concerns, and weakening geopolitical risks, domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices have continued to decline. The US WTI crude oil futures price dropped to a low of $56.63 per barrel, and the Brent crude oil futures price fell to $60.11 per barrel, both hitting new lows since the second quarter of this year. As of the week of October 17, 2025, the domestic oil - based linear cost was 7,176 yuan/ton, a weekly drop of 390 yuan/ton; the coal - based linear cost was 6,507 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 94 yuan/ton. It is expected that the support of oil - based cost will weaken, while the coal - based cost will change little [4] Supply - Side Pressure - From the supply side, the inertia of domestic polyethylene (PE) capacity expansion continues. New device launches and the resumption of maintenance have jointly led to a marginal increase in supply. Last week, multiple petrochemical enterprise devices in China restarted, including Dushanzi Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton/year device, Sinochem Quanzhou's 400,000 - ton/year device, Yulin Chemical's 400,000 - ton/year device, Jilin Petrochemical's 280,000 - ton/year device, and Maoming Petrochemical's 250,000 - ton/year device. In the long - term, deeper structural pressure comes from overcapacity, and the "price - for - volume" strategy of enterprises has further increased market supply pressure [5] Demand - Side Weakness - Demand is far less than expected, which is the core factor suppressing plastic futures prices. In October, although it is the traditional peak season for agricultural films, the "peak season effect" is insufficient. After the National Day holiday, downstream demand is mainly rigid, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The "Double 11" promotion has a weakening marginal effect on packaging film demand. The cautious market sentiment has led to a "price - decline - demand - wait - price - decline - again" negative feedback loop. As of the week of October 17, domestic polyethylene social sample warehouse inventory was 545,600 tons, a weekly increase of 21,200 tons, or 4.03%. Among them, the LLDPE social sample warehouse inventory increased by 1.63% week - on - week and 47.55% year - on - year [6]

Core Points - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has officially announced the launch of monthly average price futures for LLDPE, PVC, and PP, starting from October 28 [1] - This launch fills a gap in domestic average price risk management tools and introduces an innovative cash settlement mechanism, facilitating long-cycle trade in the chemical industry [1] - The trading unit for these futures is set at 5 tons per contract, with a minimum price fluctuation of 1 yuan per ton, aligning with existing physical delivery futures contracts [1] Industry Impact - The introduction of monthly average price futures will enrich enterprises' pricing strategies in spot trading, providing a fair average price signal and enabling more diverse risk-hedging strategies [3] - With ongoing capacity releases, the plastic industry is actively exploring export channels, and the launch of these futures offers valuable pricing references, enhancing China's influence in international plastic pricing [3] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange emphasizes that the launch of these futures is a significant step in aligning the futures market with industry demands and innovating service models, aiming to create a more comprehensive chemical derivatives ecosystem [3] Risk Management and Operational Details - The risk control system for the monthly average price futures maintains consistency with existing physical delivery futures in terms of margin ratios and price limits, while imposing stricter position limits [2] - The settlement price mechanism employs a phased calculation model to ensure price fairness and mitigate market manipulation risks [2] - The exchange has conducted extensive preparatory work, including market cultivation activities and system testing, to ensure a smooth launch and stable operation of the new futures [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term L2601 is expected to strengthen with oil prices, with a daily operating range projected to be around 6870 - 7030. The PE production and capacity utilization are expected to rise slightly. The overall inventory pressure is not significant. The cost of oil - made LLDPE decreases with international oil prices, and the oil - made profit recovers; the coal - made cost drops slightly, and the loss deepens. The downstream shed film is in the peak season, while the new orders for the packaging film are limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing prices of polyethylene futures contracts increased, with the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contract closing prices at 6936 yuan/ton, 6978 yuan/ton, and 7009 yuan/ton respectively, up 53 yuan/ton, 61 yuan/ton, and 57 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 234079 lots, down 52219 lots, and the open interest was 549864 lots, down 12101 lots. The 1 - 5 spread was - 42, down 8. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 77933 lots, up 2926 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6983.48 yuan/ton, down 8.26 yuan/ton, and in East China was 7131.43 yuan/ton, down 13.57 yuan/ton. The basis was 100.48, down 12.26 [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 58.33 US dollars/barrel, down 0.99 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 537 US dollars/ton, down 8.5 US dollars. The mid - price of ethylene CFR in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia remained unchanged at 771 US dollars/ton and 781 US dollars/ton respectively [2]. Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate was 81.76%, down 2.19%. From October 10th to 16th, the PE output decreased by 2.05% to 65.06 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.19% to 81.76% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of polyethylene packaging film, pipes, and agricultural film were 52.19% (down 0.7%), 32% (up 0.33%), and 42.89% (up 7.28%) respectively. From October 10th to 16th, the average operating rate of Chinese polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.55%, and the overall operating rate of agricultural film increased by 7.3% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of polyethylene were 8.29% (up 0.78%) and 7.68% (up 0.34%) respectively. The implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options were 11.27%, down 0.91% [2]. Industry News - As of October 22nd, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene manufacturers was 51.46 tons, down 2.81% from the previous period; as of October 17th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 54.54 tons, down 0.05% from the previous period. From October 11th to 17th, the cost of oil - made LLDPE decreased by 3.34% to 7166 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 140.29 yuan/ton to - 80.71 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - made LLDPE decreased by 0.86% to 6507 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 76.15 yuan/ton to 494.14 yuan/ton [2]. Outlook - Tianjin Petrochemical, Guoneng Ningxia Coal Industry, and Daqing Petrochemical are scheduled for maintenance this week, and the previously short - stopped units will gradually restart. The PE output and capacity utilization are expected to rise slightly. In October, there are few new shutdown units, and new production capacity is about to come on stream, resulting in high supply pressure. The downstream shed film is in the peak season, and the orders and operating rate are rising to the annual high; the new orders for the packaging film are limited, and the units are expected to operate stably. Due to the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the possible deterioration of the Venezuelan situation, international oil prices have risen significantly. In the short term, L2601 is expected to strengthen with oil prices, with a daily operating range of around 6870 - 7030 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - On October 22, 2025, the plastic industry's maintenance devices changed little, with the plastic operating rate at around 86%, a neutral level. The downstream PE operating rate rose 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%, with the agricultural film in the peak season. However, overall, the downstream PE operating rate remained at a low level compared to the same period in recent years. The post - National Day petrochemical inventory accumulation was similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level. The new capacity of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into production, and the plastic operating rate decreased slightly. Although the demand for agricultural film was expected to increase, the peak - season effect was not as expected, and downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient. Considering factors such as the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the mutual collection of special port fees for ships, and the lack of anti - involution policies in the plastic industry, the plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 22, the plastic operating rate was around 86%, a neutral level. The downstream PE operating rate rose 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. The agricultural film entered the peak season, but its orders and raw material inventory were still lower than in previous years. Packaging film orders decreased slightly. The post - National Day petrochemical inventory accumulation was similar to previous years, and the current inventory was at a neutral level. With new capacity put into production, the plastic operating rate decreased slightly. Although the demand for agricultural film was expected to increase, the peak - season effect was not as expected, and downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient. Due to factors like Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the lack of anti - involution policies, the plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract rose with reduced positions, closing at 6936 yuan/ton, up 0.98%. The trading range was from 6873 to 6956 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The position volume decreased by 12,101 lots to 549,864 lots [2]. - **Spot**: The PE spot market had mixed price changes, with fluctuations between - 100 and + 20 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 6810 - 7470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8930 - 9930 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7230 - 8090 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On October 22, the maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate was around 86%, a neutral level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of October 17, the downstream PE operating rate rose 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. The agricultural film entered the peak season, but its orders and raw material inventory were still lower than in previous years. Packaging film orders decreased slightly, and the overall downstream PE operating rate was at a low level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - **Inventory**: During the National Day holiday, petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons. On Wednesday, it decreased by 10,000 tons to 780,000 tons, 20,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The current petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $62/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $770/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also remained flat at $780/ton [4].

从资金流向上来看，当日塑料板块主力资金净流出2.67亿元，游资资金净流入1.49亿元，散户资金净流入 1.18亿元。塑料板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601208 | 东材科技 | 4740.92万 | 5.92% | State of the property 997.20万 | 1.25% | -5738.12万 | -7.17% | | 688585 | 上纬新材 | 4689.20万 | 3.32% | -1821.03万 | -1.29% | -2868.17万 | -2.03% | | 301196 唯科科技 | | 3510.84万 | 9.89% | -1558.14万 | -4.39% | -1952.70万 | -5.50% | | 300586 美联新材 | | 2484.72万 | 16.11% | 87.78万 | 0.57% | -2572.5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when prices fall [2]. - For methanol, the import unloading is delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply is slightly down, while demand remains weak. The pattern of weak reality persists, with potential upward drivers from winter gas restrictions. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, short - term malfunctioning devices have increased, and开工 has significantly declined. The price is at a low level with low valuation and weak drivers, and it's expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It's advisable to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6]. - For rubber, the rubber price has stabilized in the short - term. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and trade quickly. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the fundamental situation is poor, with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market and weak export expectations. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [12][14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the styrene price may stop falling temporarily as the port inventory is being depleted. The BZN spread has room for upward repair [17]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [20]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market [23]. - For PX, it currently lacks driving forces, and its valuation is at a neutral level, mainly following crude oil fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [26]. - For PTA, supply is increasing slightly, and demand shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is expected to continue accumulating inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [29]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.32% decline, at 437.70 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur diesel inventory increased by 0.56 million barrels to 3.01 million barrels, a 22.68% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.78 million barrels to 7.03 million barrels, a 12.56% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 17.52 million barrels, an 8.20% increase [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when prices fall [2]. Fuel Oil - **Market Information**: High - sulfur fuel oil closed down 3.00 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decline, at 2647.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 13.00 yuan/ton, a 0.42% decline, at 3072.00 yuan/ton. In the weekly data of Fujeirah port oil products, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.01 million barrels to 7.48 million barrels, a 0.17% decrease [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: No specific strategy viewpoint is provided other than for the overall energy market situation. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 13 yuan, prices in Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 2 yuan, at 2268 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 6. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 6, at - 20 [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Import unloading is delayed due to port fees, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply is slightly down, while demand remains weak. The pattern of weak reality persists, with potential upward drivers from winter gas restrictions. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, while that in Henan decreased by 10 yuan. Most areas remained stable, with only a few areas seeing price drops. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 9 yuan, at 1609 yuan, with a basis of - 79. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5, at - 75 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term malfunctioning devices have increased, and开工 has significantly declined. The price is at a low level with low valuation and weak drivers, and it's expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It's advisable to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price is oscillating and recovering. Typhoon Fengshen is approaching, affecting rubber - producing areas in Hainan, Yunnan, Vietnam, and Thailand. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand prospects, while bears are bearish due to weak demand. As of October 16, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 65.08%, up 18.70 percentage points from the previous week and 4.38 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.37%, up 23.50 percentage points from the previous week but down 4.73 percentage points from the same period last year. China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 0.77 million tons to 108 million tons as of October 12, 2025, a 0.7% decrease [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price has stabilized in the short - term. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and trade quickly. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 3 yuan, at 4699 yuan. The spot price of SG - 5 in Changzhou was 4600 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 99 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan). The 1 - 5 spread was - 301 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan). The overall operating rate of PVC was 76.7%, down 5.9% from the previous period; the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 74.7%, down 8.2%; the operating rate of the ethylene method was 81.3%, down 0.6%. The overall downstream operating rate was 39.2%, down 8.6%. Factory inventory was 36 million tons (- 2.3 million tons), and social inventory was 103.4 million tons (- 0.3 million tons) [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental situation is poor, with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market and weak export expectations. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [12][14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of East China pure benzene decreased by 46 yuan/ton to 5430 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract decreased by 46 yuan/ton to 5476 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene increased by 50 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract increased by 73 yuan/ton to 6438 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 71.88%, down 1.73%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 38.81%, up 0.27% [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling temporarily as the port inventory is being depleted. The BZN spread has room for upward repair [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 6883 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 6975 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.45%, down 0.11%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 4.09 million tons to 52.95 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons to 5.03 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45%, up 0.64%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 34 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract increased by 18 yuan/ton to 6583 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 6615 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.27%, down 0.76%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons to 67.87 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 2.25 million tons to 23.86 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons to 6.79 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 51.8%, up 0.04%. The LL - PP spread was 300 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [21][22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Under the background of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 64 yuan to 6332 yuan. The PX CFR price increased by 1 dollar to 784 dollars. The basis was 78 yuan (- 59 yuan), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 10 yuan (+ 6 yuan). The Chinese PX load was 84.9%, down 2.5%; the Asian load was 78%, down 1.9%. Some devices were under maintenance. The PTA load was 76%, up 1.6%. In early October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 12.7 million tons, up 2.1 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of August was 391.8 million tons, up 1.9 million tons month - on - month. The PXN was 246 dollars (+ 5 dollars), and the naphtha crack spread was 87 dollars (- 11 dollars) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance, with a low overall load center. The new PTA device commissioning expectation suppresses the PTA processing fee, making it difficult to deplete PX inventory. It currently lacks driving forces, and its valuation is at a neutral level, mainly following crude oil fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 30 yuan to 4414 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 5 yuan to 4320 yuan. The basis was - 88 yuan (- 3 yuan), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 66 yuan (+ 2 yuan). The PTA load was 76%, up 1.6%. The downstream load was 91.4%, down 0.1%. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased by 1% to 80%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 68%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 10 was 216 million tons, up 5.3 million tons. The PTA spot processing fee increased by 2 yuan to 115 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 12 yuan to 260 yuan [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the future, supply maintenance will decrease, leading to a slight inventory increase. The processing fee is difficult to expand due to weak forward expectations. The polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure in the demand side are low, and the load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 1 yuan to 4004 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 25 yuan to 4075 yuan. The basis was 74 yuan (+ 2 yuan), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 83 yuan (+ 4 yuan). The ethylene glycol load was 77.2%, up 2.5%. The downstream load was 91.4%, down 0.1%. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased by 1% to 80%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 68%. The import arrival forecast was 5.3 million tons, and the East China departure on October 20 was 0.56 million tons. The port inventory increased by 3.8 million tons to 57.9 million tons. The naphtha - based profit was - 436 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 706 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 253 yuan. The cost - side ethylene price decreased to 780 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines increased to 660 yuan [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry is expected to continue accumulating inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [29].

Core Viewpoint - The plastic market is currently facing a triple dilemma of "supply pressure, demand pressure, and cost collapse," leading to a bearish outlook for the plastic futures 2601 contract price [5] Group 1: Supply Factors - Domestic polyethylene (PE) production capacity continues to expand, with several petrochemical companies restarting production after maintenance, contributing to a marginal increase in supply [3] - The cost of oil-based polyethylene has significantly decreased, with the domestic oil-based cost reported at 7176 yuan/ton, down 390 yuan/ton week-on-week, while coal-based cost is at 6507 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan/ton [2] - The overall capacity utilization in the petrochemical industry remains low due to overcapacity, leading to increased market supply pressure as companies adopt a "price for volume" strategy to maintain cash flow and market share [3] Group 2: Demand Factors - Demand for plastic is significantly weaker than expected, with the traditional peak season in October not translating into substantial purchasing activity, resulting in a cautious market sentiment [4] - The overall operating rate for downstream polyethylene is at its lowest for the same period in recent years, with limited support from upcoming events like "Double 11" [4] - Domestic polyethylene inventory has slightly increased, with a reported inventory of 54.56 million tons, up 2.12 million tons week-on-week, indicating a lack of strong demand [4] Group 3: Price Dynamics - The pricing logic in the plastic futures market has shifted from being driven by "cost + demand" to "cost + supply," leading to a downward adjustment in market pricing [2] - The Southeast Asian plastic market is currently buyer-dominated, with buyers having ample options and a continuous decline in price expectations [2] - The combination of weak demand and falling costs is expected to keep the price of the plastic futures 2601 contract on a downward trajectory [5]

Group 1: PVC Market Overview - PVC futures have shown a "V" shaped trend since June 2025, with market logic returning to fundamentals after a period of "anti-involution" [1] - As of now, 1.75 million tons of new PVC production capacity has been added in 2025, with major contributions from companies like Xinpu Chemical and Wanhu Fujian [1] - The total production capacity for PVC is expected to reach 1.95 million tons this year, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 7% [1] Group 2: Supply and Production Data - From January to September 2025, the cumulative PVC production reached 18.11 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.11%, with ethylene-based production growing by 9.78% [1] - The supply pressure is primarily driven by ethylene-based production, and with fewer maintenance activities in the fourth quarter, supply-side pressure is expected to increase further [1] Group 3: Demand and Real Estate Impact - PVC is closely linked to the real estate sector, which has seen a decline in investment and construction activities, with a 13.9% drop in real estate development investment from January to September 2025 [2] - The operating rates for downstream products, particularly those related to real estate, remain at historically low levels, indicating weak domestic demand for PVC [2] Group 4: Export Dynamics - Cumulative PVC powder exports from January to September 2025 reached 2.92 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 51%, with major markets including India and Vietnam [3] - However, the potential for export decline in the fourth quarter is a concern due to India's anti-dumping tax adjustments and ongoing trade tensions [3] Group 5: Inventory and Pricing - Domestic PVC social inventory stands at 1.0338 million tons, showing a slight decrease from the previous month but a year-on-year increase of 24.48% [3] - The prices of raw materials like calcium carbide and ethylene remain low, contributing to ongoing losses in production methods, yet the overall PVC operating rate has not decreased due to acceptable chlor-alkali profits [4] Group 6: Overall Market Sentiment - The PVC market is characterized by significant supply pressure and weak demand, particularly influenced by the downturn in the real estate sector [4] - The overall sentiment remains bearish, with caution advised for bottom-fishing strategies, while monitoring for potential stabilization signals in the market [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is under significant pressure due to high social inventory, upcoming end of equipment maintenance, average spot trading, and high futures warehouse receipts. However, the recent major conference may affect macro - sentiment, and the cost side of PVC has strengthened. It is recommended to exit and wait and see [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 5.94 percentage points to 76.69% on a month - on - month basis, still at a relatively high level in recent years. After the National Day, the downstream recovery of PVC was significant, but it is still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. India postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, lowered its November quotation by $30 - 40 per ton. India increased the anti - dumping duty on imported PVC from the Chinese mainland by about $50 per ton on August 14, weakening the export expectation of Chinese PVC in the fourth quarter. However, after the recent decline in export prices, export orders have not weakened significantly. The real estate is still in the adjustment stage, and it will take time to improve [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,670 yuan per ton, the highest was 4,725 yuan per ton, and it finally closed at 4,699 yuan per ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.47%. The position volume decreased by 14,260 lots to 1,191,906 lots [2]. - On October 21, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,625 yuan per ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,699 yuan per ton. The current basis was - 74 yuan per ton, weakening by 16 yuan per ton, and the basis was at a relatively low - neutral level [3][4]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Some devices such as Shandong Xinfa, Lutai Chemical, and Inner Mongolia Junzheng entered maintenance. The PVC operating rate decreased by 5.94 percentage points to 76.69% on a month - on - month basis. New production capacities have been put into operation, including Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons in August, Tianjin Bohua with an annual capacity of 400,000 tons expected to be in stable production by the end of September, Qingdao Gulf with an annual capacity of 200,000 tons put into operation in early September and approaching full - load production, and Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua with annual capacities of 300,000 tons each running at low loads after trial production [5]. - Demand side: The real estate is still in the adjustment stage. From January to September 2025, the national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%. The new construction area of houses was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The completed area of houses was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. As of the week of October 19, after the National Day, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 54.79% on a month - on - month basis, but it was at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [6]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 16, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.24% on a month - on - month basis to 1.0338 million tons, 33.52% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory decreased slightly but was still relatively high [7].