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《能源化工》日报-20250703
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 02:08
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose, driven by geopolitical events and trade progress, but fundamental factors restricted the increase. Iran's suspension of cooperation with the UN nuclear agency raised concerns about supply disruptions, and the US - Vietnam trade agreement boosted some demand expectations. However, OPEC+ planned production increases were digested, Saudi exports increased, US crude inventories unexpectedly rose, and gasoline demand was weak. The oil price broke through the previous trading range but lacked strong drivers, with a low probability of short - term unilateral trends. It is recommended to wait and see, with resistance levels for WTI at [67, 68], Brent at [69, 70], and SC at [510, 520]. Options can capture opportunities from increased volatility [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Supply - demand is tight in the short term due to maintenance expectations, high downstream loads, and new PTA production plans. However, as PXN recovers, some maintenance may be postponed, and weak terminal demand may limit the rebound space. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with PX09 oscillating between 6600 - 6900 [6]. - **PTA**: In July, the maintenance of PTA devices is average, and new devices are stable. With expected downstream production cuts and weak terminal demand, supply - demand is turning loose. Although the low price is supported by raw materials, the absolute price is under pressure. TA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900, with a short - position allocation at the upper edge of the range and a rolling reverse spread for TA9 - 1 [6]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is increasing at home and abroad, and the supply - demand is gradually turning loose, with a possible inventory build - up from August to September. Domestic coal - based MEG plants are restarting, and overseas plants are also recovering. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the seller of option EG2509 - C - 4450 exiting and a reverse spread for EG9 - 1 at high prices [6]. - **Short Fibre**: The supply - demand is weak. Although short - term prices are supported by raw materials due to expected production cuts and limited inventory pressure, weak downstream demand restricts the repair space of processing fees. PF is similar to PTA in unilateral trading, and the processing fees can be expanded at low levels [6]. - **Bottle Chips**: In July, due to the peak consumption season and production cuts by some plants, the supply - demand is expected to improve, and the processing fees are bottoming out. The absolute price follows the cost. PR is similar to PTA in unilateral trading, with a positive spread for PR8 - 9 at low prices and attention to expanding processing fees at the lower edge of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [6]. Urea The increase in urea futures prices is mainly driven by improved demand expectations, including seasonal agricultural demand, marginal improvement in industrial demand, and positive market sentiment from export tenders. Although supply - side device maintenance provides some support, overall supply growth restricts the upside. The supply - demand may further improve, and the short - term price may have upward potential depending on the tender results [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - side optimization expectation boosts market sentiment. Fundamentally, the supply - demand contradiction is limited, but high profits lead to high production, and non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season. The price may rebound at a low level under strong macro sentiment, but the momentum depends on spot market follow - up [38]. - **PVC**: The supply - side optimization policy is beneficial in the long - term, but short - term supply - demand contradictions are still prominent. The real - estate demand is dragging, and overseas factors may affect exports. PVC has a fundamental basis for a rebound, but the near - term upside is limited, and the long - term effect depends on policy implementation [38]. Methanol Port inventory build - up, Iranian plant restarts, and MTO device shutdowns increase the pressure on port prices, and the port basis weakens rapidly. The inland market is affected by high production and weak demand in the off - season, but more maintenance plans in July will relieve some supply pressure. Overall, the price has limited upside and downside, and interval operations are recommended [41]. Styrene The pure benzene market first declined and then rebounded at a low level. The styrene market in East China was stable, with a strong basis price as the paper - cargo delivery approached. In the medium term, tariffs and subsidies may not drive terminal demand further. High styrene profits stimulate production, and supply - demand pressure may lead to valuation repair, which may rely on a decline in styrene prices. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for styrene due to raw material resonance [51]. Polyolefins Cost - end valuation has recovered, but monomer prices are firm, squeezing the profit of the monomer - purchasing process. The supply of PP and PE is shrinking, with increasing PP maintenance losses and low PE import expectations, leading to continuous inventory reduction. Although the July balance sheet shows a de - stocking expectation, there is still overall pressure. In the short - term, support from de - stocking can be noted, and for PP, short positions can be considered when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [55]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 3, Brent rose 2.00 to 69.11 dollars/barrel, WTI fell 0.19 to 67.26 dollars/barrel, and SC rose 10.50 to 509.00 yuan/barrel. Most spreads changed, with Brent - WTI increasing by 0.19 to 1.85 dollars/barrel [2]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD declined slightly, while ICE Gasoil rose 15.25 to 741.50 dollars/ton. The cracking spreads of some refined oils changed, with the US gasoline cracking spread falling 0.08 to 21.63 dollars/barrel [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Products**: On July 2, POY150/48, FDY150/96, and other prices mostly declined, while short - fiber and bottle - chip futures prices changed slightly [6]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX declined, and PX - related spreads also changed, such as PX - crude oil and PX - naphtha [6]. - **PTA - related**: PTA prices and spreads changed, with the spot price falling and the basis weakening. The processing fees also decreased [6]. - **MEG - related**: MEG prices, inventory, and开工率 changed. The inventory decreased, and the开工 rate of some plants changed [6]. Urea - **Futures and Spot**: On July 2, futures prices rose, and spot prices in some regions changed slightly. The basis and spreads also had corresponding changes [10][11][14]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production decreased, and the plant start - up rate decreased. The inventory in some areas decreased, and the number of enterprise orders decreased [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures**: On July 2, the prices of caustic soda and PVC spot and futures changed. For example, the price of SH2509 rose 33.0 to 2391.0 yuan/ton [33]. - **Supply and Demand**: The opening rates of caustic soda and PVC plants changed, and the inventory of some products changed. The downstream opening rates of caustic soda and PVC also had corresponding changes [36][37][38]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 2, MA2509 and MA2601 prices rose, and the basis and regional spreads changed. For example, the太仓 basis fell 95 to 61 [41]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol inventory increased slightly, and the开工率 of upstream and downstream plants changed. The upstream enterprise start - up rate increased, while the downstream MTO device start - up rate decreased [41]. Styrene - **Upstream**: On July 2, the prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and other upstream raw materials changed. The pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha spreads also changed [49]. - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene spot and futures prices declined, and the basis and month - spreads decreased [49]. - **Industry Chain**: The开工率 and profit of the styrene industry chain changed. For example, the styrene start - up rate increased, and the integrated profit increased significantly [51]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot**: On July 2, L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 prices rose, and the basis and month - spreads changed. The spot prices of some products also changed [55]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工率 of PE and PP plants changed, and the inventory decreased. The downstream weighted开工率 of PE and PP also changed [55].
上纬新材:上市以来零增持、零回购!研发强度排名行业倒数
Core Viewpoint - The company is undergoing a significant matter that may lead to a change in control, resulting in a temporary suspension of its stock trading for up to two trading days starting July 2, 2025 [2] Group 1: Business Overview - The company specializes in environmentally friendly high-performance corrosion-resistant materials, materials for wind turbine blades, new composite materials, and circular economy materials, primarily applied in energy conservation and environmental protection, as well as new energy sectors [2] - Products are widely used in pollution prevention projects across various industries, including electronics, new energy, semiconductors, rail transportation safety materials, electricity, petrochemicals, metallurgy, and construction [2] Group 2: Stock Performance - The company's stock price surged over 5.5 times on its debut on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in September 2020, reaching a peak of 20.49 yuan per share, but has since seen a significant decline, with a current price of 7.78 yuan per share, representing a 61.48% drop from its historical high [3] - The stock has experienced low trading volume, with an average turnover rate of 0.59% year-to-date, ranking last in the plastics industry [3] Group 3: R&D Investment - The company’s investment in technological innovation is not prominent, with R&D expenditure of 30 million yuan in 2024, showing a slight decline over three consecutive years [6] - The R&D intensity, measured as the ratio of R&D expenditure to revenue, stands at 2.03% in 2024, placing the company in the bottom fifth of the plastics industry, indicating insufficient investment in technological innovation [6] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company has shown a lack of emphasis on shareholder returns, with a cash dividend rate of 19.56% since its listing, ranking ninth from the bottom in the plastics industry [7] - There have been no announcements for share buybacks or increases in holdings by major shareholders, contrasting with 12 announcements for share reductions, primarily by the major shareholder, Jin Feng Investment Holdings [7]
【图】2025年1-5月新疆维吾尔自治区初级形态的塑料产量数据分析
Chan Ye Diao Yan Wang· 2025-07-02 03:23
Core Insights - The plastic production in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region showed significant growth in May 2025, reaching 701,000 tons, which is a year-on-year increase of 14.8% and a growth rate that is 27.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - For the period from January to May 2025, the total plastic production was 3,555,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, although this growth rate is 3.6 percentage points lower than the national average [1] Group 1: Monthly Production Data - In May 2025, the plastic production reached 701,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 14.8% [1] - The growth rate in May 2025 was 27.4 percentage points higher compared to the same month last year [1] - Xinjiang's production accounted for 5.9% of the national total of 11,900,000 tons for the same period [1] Group 2: Cumulative Production Data - From January to May 2025, the cumulative plastic production was 3,555,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [1] - The growth rate for this period was 9.4 percentage points higher than the previous year [1] - Xinjiang's cumulative production represented 6.1% of the national total of 58,098,000 tons during the same timeframe [1]
6-8月PE供应先降后升 预计期末库存缓慢去化
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-01 04:54
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese PE market experienced a decline in supply from June to July, followed by an increase in August due to reduced maintenance and new capacity releases, with seasonal demand expected to support inventory levels [1][6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In June, the total PE supply in China (domestic + imports + recycled) was estimated at 3.8 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.46% [2]. - Domestic production saw a continued decline, with a month-on-month drop of 2.22%, influenced by maintenance shutdowns at several key plants [2]. - The supply of LDPE significantly decreased due to maintenance at major producers, while HDPE production increased as some plants shifted production [2]. - Import volumes were expected to decrease by 2.64% in June, with geopolitical factors and domestic demand expectations keeping imports at a low level in July and August [2][6]. Recycled PE Supply - The supply of recycled PE was projected to remain low at 130,000 to 160,000 tons per month during June and July due to low price differentials and seasonal demand [2]. - An increase in recycled PE supply is anticipated in August as seasonal demand begins to rise [2]. Production and Export Data - In May, China's plastic products production was 6.425 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while cumulative production from January to May was 31.65 million tons, reflecting a growth of 5.4% [6]. - Exports of PE shopping bags in May reached 113,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.12%, with cumulative exports from January to May totaling 542,500 tons, up 6.02% year-on-year [6]. Market Outlook - The second half of the year will require careful management of production and supply dynamics to navigate potential risks, particularly as oil-based PE production profitability has turned negative for some varieties [6].
ICIS:美国急需调整PVC产能
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-06-30 02:26
Core Insights - The global PVC market is experiencing a significant supply surplus due to increased supply, weak demand, and rising international trade protectionism [2][3] - The imbalance in supply and demand is pressuring PVC prices and pushing many producers, especially in the U.S., towards unsustainable profit margins [2][4] - The U.S. is facing a dramatic shift in trade patterns, with anti-dumping measures from multiple countries hindering its traditional role as a major PVC exporter [3][5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current global PVC supply far exceeds demand, necessitating rationalization of production capacity [5] - Despite a projected 8% growth in domestic PVC demand in the U.S. for 2024, the local market is insufficient to absorb existing production capacity [5] - The ongoing expansion in East Asia, the Middle East, and South Asia is contributing to increased production capacity, which is not supported by demand growth expectations [5] Trade and Regulatory Environment - Anti-dumping measures are reshaping global PVC trade flows, particularly affecting U.S. exports to Europe and other key markets [3] - Recent increases in import tariffs, such as Brazil's PVC tariff rising from 8.2% to 43.7%, pose significant challenges for U.S. producers [3] - The European and UK markets are tightening access to U.S. PVC, effectively closing doors to American exports [3] Cost Structure and Profitability - European and Asian integrated PVC producers have total costs that are 20% to 30% higher than those of U.S. producers, primarily due to differences in natural gas and electricity prices [4] - Current global PVC spot prices are below the production costs for many companies, indicating unsustainable profitability across the industry [4] - The only recent positive aspect in the PVC market has been temporary shipping arbitrage opportunities due to disruptions in the Red Sea [4]
【图】2025年5月江西省初级形态的塑料产量统计分析
Chan Ye Diao Yan Wang· 2025-06-29 01:44
Core Insights - In May 2025, the primary form plastic production in Jiangxi Province reached 59,000 tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, although the growth rate decreased by 8.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of primary form plastics was 280,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, which is 2.9 percentage points higher than the previous year [1] Production Statistics - The primary form plastic production in Jiangxi Province accounted for 0.5% of the national output of 11.9 million tons in May 2025 [1] - The cumulative production from January to May 2025 also represented 0.5% of the national total of 58.1 million tons [1] Growth Comparison - The growth rate of plastic production in Jiangxi for May 2025 was 1.1 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - The cumulative growth rate for the first five months of 2025 was 7.9 percentage points higher than the national average [1]
打造长三角具有影响力的塑料交易市场!南通季铭国际塑料城开业
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-28 11:22
Core Viewpoint - The opening of the Nantong Jiming International Plastic City marks a significant development in the Hai'an commercial logistics park, transitioning from futures delivery to spot trading, and aims to become a leading plastic trading market in East China [3][4]. Group 1: Project Overview - The total investment for the Jiming International Plastic City is 2 billion yuan, covering a planned area of 194 acres, and has attracted over 100 quality trading companies [3]. - The project aims to create a one-stop platform integrating trading display, warehousing, and financial services, filling gaps in the regional industrial chain and promoting the development of downstream industries such as injection molding and molds [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The plastic city is positioned as the first physical spot market for bulk production materials in Hai'an, which is expected to effectively reduce raw material costs for key local industries such as new materials and chemical fibers [3][4]. - Hai'an's commercial logistics park is recognized as Jiangsu's only provincial-level professional logistics park, focusing on building a national logistics hub and enhancing multi-modal transport and bonded logistics [3][4]. Group 3: Future Development Plans - The city government emphasizes the importance of platform operation, management, and service to meet comprehensive enterprise needs and to create a significant plastic industry cluster [4]. - Future initiatives include optimizing infrastructure for smart logistics and warehousing, and promoting the integration of futures and spot trading with manufacturing [4][6]. Group 4: Founder's Insights - The founder of the plastic city attributes its establishment in Hai'an to the region's advantageous transportation, excellent business environment, and innovative city spirit [6]. - The project aims to leverage technology to empower traditional industries and introduce advanced models such as smart logistics and circular economy [6].
下半年PE市场展望
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-06-28 03:05
供应端:压力逐渐增加 2025年是近几年PE产能扩张压力最大的一年,也是此轮产能扩张周期的最后一年。上半年PE产能扩张 压力较小,除了一季度多套新装置集中投产之外,二季度几无新装置投产。不过,下半年PE仍将面临 吉林石化、裕龙石化、湛江巴斯夫等多套新装置投产压力,预计届时总产能将突破4000万吨/年。 成本端:利润存在压缩空间 今年PE利润情况较去年明显改善,其中煤制PE利润丰厚,一度达到2000元/吨,虽然近期有所回落,但 是依然在1500元/吨附近。油制PE一改近几年长期亏损的状态,基本扭亏为盈。综合来看,目前PE处于 近五年利润最好的状态,但考虑到PE曾经长期处于亏损状态,并且今年产能扩张压力较大,后期随着 供应压力陆续兑现,利润也存在压缩空间。 进出口:结构或逐渐改变 目前PE进出口格局变化不大,依然是净进口状态。其中,每月进口量在120万吨左右,每月出口量在5 万~10万吨。随着PE新装置陆续投产,国内供应将逐渐转向过剩,届时PE进出口格局或逐渐改变。作 为对比,PP曾经每月净进口30万吨左右,但是随着产能扩张逐渐兑现,进口大幅减少,出口明显增 加。目前PP进口和出口基本抵消,后期PE也有望像PP一 ...
兴证策略:指数新高后,当前各行业股价分布如何?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-27 14:23
Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently surpassed the annual high set on March 18, 2025, and is approaching the high from October 8, 2024, indicating a significant market movement [1] - There is a noticeable divergence among various sectors, with banking, agriculture, personal care, military, chemical, transportation, and petrochemical industries showing a higher proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 closing prices [1] - Conversely, sectors such as steel, electronics, home appliances, telecommunications, computers, and electrical equipment have a lower proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 levels [1] Group 2 - In the secondary industry analysis, financial (banking, insurance, diversified finance), military (naval equipment, ground weaponry), agriculture (animal health, agricultural products, planting, feed), precious metals, personal care products, and chemical pharmaceuticals show a higher proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 closing prices [4] - Sectors like home appliances, electrical equipment, TMT (television broadcasting, communication services, consumer electronics, semiconductors, optical electronics), general steel, and machinery (engineering machinery, automation equipment) have a lower proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 levels [4] - Comparing to the October 8, 2024 closing prices, banking, motorcycles, military (ground weaponry, aerospace equipment), chemicals (plastics, non-metallic materials), and new consumption (entertainment products, personal care products, retail, accessories) show a higher proportion of stocks exceeding their previous levels [4]