（来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 Brown表示："3月期棉即将进入交割期，所有抛售压力已消退。" ICE公布数据显示，截至2月19日，ICE可交割的2号期棉合约库存增至119457包，前一交易日为117075 包。 一、期货 2月20日(周五)，洲际交易所(ICE)棉花期货攀升，因美元小幅走低，且利好的出口销售报告提振投资者 信心。 交投最活跃的5月棉花期货合约上涨1.49美分或2.32%，结算价报65.63美分/磅。 乔治亚州KeithBrown公司首席棉花经纪人KeithBrown表示："美元今日略有走弱，出口销售创市场年度 新高。这些因素均支撑棉价。" 美元在震荡交投中走低，终结连续4天的涨势。此前美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府大规模关税政策违 法。 美元走软使以美元计价的棉花对海外买家更具价格吸引力。 该裁决可能缓解棉农的财务压力，从而支撑出口需求和棉价。 与此同时，美国农业部(USDA)周五公布的出口销售报告显示，2月12日止当周，当前年度美棉出口销售 净增46.63万包，创市场年度新高，较前周增加102%，较前四周均值增加70%。下一年度美棉出口销售 净增3.31万包。 汇市：美元指数下跌。股 ...

研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 行业 棉花 日期 2026 年 2 月 13 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉窄幅震荡。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 16069 元/吨，较上一 交易日涨 40 元/吨。2025 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market contradictions are not significant. The previous expectation of a downward adjustment in the new - year cotton planting area has been reflected in the market. The cotton sales progress on the demand side is still fast, at a high level in the same period of previous years. Considering the approaching Spring Festival, the short - term change in the demand side is expected to be small. Supported by market bullish factors, the cotton fundamentals still have certain support. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [6]. - It is predicted that the US cotton will likely fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and Zhengzhou cotton will also fluctuate within a range. One can consider building long positions on dips and hold light positions during the Spring Festival. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Disk**: The prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 70; the prices of CY05 and CY09 contracts decreased by 45 and 25 respectively, while the CY01 contract had no trading. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also had different changes [2]. - **Spot Price**: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,967 yuan/ton, down 45; Cot A was 72.80 cents/pound, and the price of other spot products also had corresponding fluctuations [2]. - **Price Difference**: There were different price differences in cotton and yarn across different periods and varieties, and the price differences also had corresponding changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month cotton inter - period spread was 530 with no change, and the CY05 - CF05 cross - variety spread was 5,750, up 25 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - On February 11, 2026, the Xinjiang - bound cotton road transport price index was 0.1402 yuan/ton·km, remaining flat month - on - month. It is expected to remain relatively stable in the short term [4]. - In September 2025, the EU's clothing import value was 21.699 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 14.21% and a month - on - month increase of 15.12%. In October, it was 20.407 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 3.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.95%. The overall import volume remained high, but the unit price continued to decline [4]. - In January, the proportion of enterprises with an operating rate of 90% and above was 44.74%, a decrease of 6.37 percentage points from the previous month; the proportion of enterprises with an operating rate between 61% - 89% was 36.84%, an increase of 7.95 percentage points. The proportion of enterprises with an increased cotton consumption was 31.58%, a decrease of 1.75 percentage points; the proportion of those with a decreased cotton consumption was 23.68%, an increase of 3.68 percentage points [5]. Trading Logic - With minor market contradictions, the previous expectation of a reduced cotton planting area has been reflected. The cotton sales progress is fast, but considering the Spring Festival, the short - term demand change is expected to be small. Supported by bullish factors, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [6]. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is predicted that US cotton will likely fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and Zhengzhou cotton will also fluctuate within a range. One can consider building long positions on dips and hold light positions during the Spring Festival [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]. - **Options**: Wait and see [9]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market has basically stopped, with only a small amount of goods moving in Xinjiang. Some spinning mills have raised their quotes, and inland spinning mills have started to have centralized holidays. The market for all - cotton grey fabrics has basically stopped, and most fabric mills have stopped quoting prices, with prices remaining stable for now [9]. Third Part: Options - **Option Contract Data**: On January 19, 2026, for options such as CF605C14600.CZC, CF605C14200.CZC, and CF605P13800.CZC, there were corresponding data on closing prices, price changes, implied volatility, etc [11]. - **Volatility**: The 60 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 9.2812, with a slight increase in volatility compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of different options was also provided [11]. - **Option Strategy**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.8667, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.4688. The trading volume of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides relevant figures such as the price difference of domestic and foreign cotton under 1% tariff, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the price difference between CY05 and CF05, CY01 and CF01, and the price difference between CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [14][18][23][25]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 02 月 12 日星期四 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 郑棉总成交 348681 持仓 104259 ...

行业 棉花 日期 2026 年 2 月 12 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 郑棉窄幅震荡。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 16029 元/吨，较上一 交易日涨 41 元/吨。2025/26 南疆喀什机采 31 级双 29/杂 3 内主流基差暂多在 CF05+1000 及以上，少量低于该 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

行业 棉花 日期 2026 年 2 月 11 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 据巴西国家商品供应公司(Conab)，截至 2 月 7 日当周，巴西 2025/26 年度棉花种植率为 88.1%，此前一周为 78.6%，上年同期为 87.4%，五年 均值为 62.3%。 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton fundamentals remain strong with an upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. The expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 and the upcoming textile projects in Xinjiang are factors influencing the market [6]. - In the short - term, both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range. The trading strategies suggest building long positions on dips for the unilateral trade, and adopting a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: The CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts of cotton all decreased by 70, while the CY05 and CY09 contracts of cotton yarn decreased by 45 and 25 respectively. The CY01 contract had no trading volume. The trading volume of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the open interest of the CF01 contract increased by 84, and that of the CF05 contract decreased by 270 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,967 yuan/ton, down 45; the CY IndexC32S price was 21,455 yuan, unchanged. The prices of other varieties such as Cot A, FCY IndexC33S, etc., also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spreads**: In the cotton and cotton yarn markets, there were changes in cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 530, unchanged; the CY05 - CF05 spread was 5,750, up 25 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of January 22, 2026, the sowing progress of Brazil's 2025/26 cotton was 55.5%. As of February 6, the planting was 88.1% complete, up 9.5 percentage points month - on - month, 0.7 percentage points faster year - on - year, and 3.6 percentage points slower than the three - year average. The planting progress in Mato Grosso and Bahia is in the middle - late stage [4]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.9894 million tons, accounting for 98.7% of the estimated annual US cotton output, 6% slower year - on - year. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 98.6%, down 5% year - on - year; that of Pima cotton was 99.5%, 17% slower year - on - year. The weekly deliverable ratio was 78.1%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 81.8%, 1.2 percentage points higher year - on - year [5]. Trading Logic - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2025 was 38.87 million mu. It is expected to decrease by 2.66 million mu to 36.21 million mu in 2026, a reduction of 7%. Some large - scale planters have received relevant notices. Several large textile projects are expected to be launched in Xinjiang this year, which is beneficial to cotton consumption [6]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is expected that US cotton will trade in a range in the short - term, and Zhengzhou cotton will also trade in a range. It is advisable to build long positions on dips. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market has become quiet, with more spinning mills on holiday. Yarn prices are generally stable, and some spinning mills have slightly increased their quotes. - The full - cotton grey fabric market is getting more festive, and the market remains sluggish. Traders are gradually returning home. Some weaving mills report that post - holiday orders are fewer than in previous years. Weaving mills continue to stop production and reduce loads, and there is expected to be no significant change before the Spring Festival [9]. 3.3 Options - **Option Contract Information**: On January 19, 2026, for options such as CF605C14600.CZC, CF605C14200.CZC, and CF605P13800.CZC, the closing prices decreased by 16.9%, 17.7%, and 34.1% respectively, and the implied volatilities were 13.3%, 11.3%, and 11.2% respectively [11]. - **Volatility and Volume PCR**: The 60 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 9.2812, with a slight increase in volatility. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.8667, and the volume PCR was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today [11][12]. - **Option Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures ended eight consecutive days of decline, with the 03 contract settling at 61.61 cents, up 0.9%. As the Spring Festival approaches, market trading is light, with fewer new orders for enterprises. Rising freight costs and logistics pressure restrict market activity, leading to a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Overall, the main Zheng cotton contract will remain volatile before the Spring Festival [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Quotes - Zheng cotton's total trading volume is 334,671, and the open interest is 1,046,048. The settlement prices are 14,615 for the May contract, 14,730 for the September contract, and 15,130 for the January contract. The ICE March contract settled at 61.61 cents, up 55 points; the May contract at 63.76 cents, up 72 points; the July contract at 65.45 cents, up 62 points, with a trading volume of about 131,000 lots [2]. 3.2. Important News - On January 29, spinning enterprises in the Bazhou area of southern Xinjiang purchased Class 31 double - 29 machine - picked new cotton with less than 2.7% impurity in the Xinjiang warehouse. The basis price of the 2605 contract was 1,150 - 1,250 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 16,050 - 16,200 yuan/ton, up about 50 - 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - According to US Department of Commerce data, in November 2025, US retail sales of clothing and clothing accessories (seasonally adjusted) were $27.493 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.54% (down - adjusted to $25.565 billion in the same period last year) and a month - on - month increase of 0.88% (up - adjusted to $27.254 billion last month) [2]. - As of the week of January 29, the net signing of US upland cotton for this year was 57,000 tons, and the shipment was 53,000 tons. The net signing to China was 8,000 tons, and the shipment was 4,000 tons [2]. - So far this year, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has cumulatively purchased about 4.37 million tons of seed cotton, with 34% from Telangana. Converted at a lint percentage of 35%, the cumulative purchase of CCI is equivalent to about 1.53 million tons of lint cotton [2]. - On January 29, the cotton yarn futures continued to increase in volume and reduce positions, with prices rising, and the spot price slightly increased. Zheng cotton remained stable, while cotton yarn futures rose significantly. The spot market prices were mostly stable with a small increase. Some spinning enterprises raised their quotes by 100 - 300 yuan/ton, but most maintained their quotes, mainly because there was pressure for the price increase of medium - and low - count yarns [2]. 3.3. Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures ended the decline, and as the Spring Festival approaches, market trading is light, with fewer new orders and rising freight and logistics pressure, resulting in a wait - and - see sentiment. The main Zheng cotton contract will remain volatile before the Spring Festival [2]. 3.4. Trading Strategy - The 05 contract will operate in the range of 14,500 - 15,000 yuan/ton [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: February 10, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton showed a narrow - range oscillation. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,967 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream basis of 2025/26 southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 31 - grade double 29/impurity within 3 was mostly above CF05 + 1000, and that in northern Xinjiang was mostly above 1200. The spot in the 1180 - 1250 range was gradually decreasing, all for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [7]. - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market weakened. Traders and some cloth mills restocked on a small scale. Yarn mills' quotes were basically stable, while traders' quotes were slightly weak. As the Chinese New Year approached, yarn mills focused on stockpiling, and the operating rate in the inland continued to decline [7]. - Cotton fabric factories reported a decrease in new orders compared with the previous period. The operating rate gradually declined, and more workers returned home. The sales of cotton fabric factories decreased, and the finished - product inventory remained at a relatively high level [7]. - In the international market, the net position of CFTC US cotton funds decreased week - on - week, and the weekly signing and shipment were stable and improving. Attention was paid to the adjustment of the February supply - demand report. In the domestic market, as of February 8, the cumulative public inspection of cotton nationwide was 7.4527 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous day. As of mid - January, the commercial inventory of cotton was at a high level in the same period of history. The mismatch between the output increase and the inventory accumulation amplitude still kept the expectation of tight inventory at the end of the cotton year. On the demand side, spot transactions basically came to a standstill. There was only a small amount of spot shipments in the market, and the operating rate continued to decline. With limited changes in the fundamentals, Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and adjusted in a narrow range [8]. Group 3: Industry News - According to CFTC, as of the week ending February 3, the long positions of non - commercial funds in CFTC US cotton futures were 101,788 (+5,316) contracts, increasing for the sixth consecutive week; the short positions were 144,532 (+9,093) contracts, increasing for the fourth consecutive week; the total ICE positions were 380,025 (+17,396) contracts, increasing for the tenth consecutive week. The net long ratio was - 11.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 6.3 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - According to the China Cotton Inspection Network, as of February 8, 2026, in the 2025 cotton year, a total of 1,099 cotton processing enterprises processed cotton and carried out notarized inspections in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The cumulative inspection nationwide was 33,015,696 bales, a total of 7.4527 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 32,572,802 bales, a total of 7.3535 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland was 272,359 bales, a total of 60,600 tons [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, various price spreads, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates (US dollar against RMB and US dollar against Indian rupee) [17][18][20][26][28]