F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： 研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 03 月 02 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 联系方式： :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 研究所 农产品研发报告 第二部分 市场消息及观点 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 15630 | -95 | 4,488 | 2735 | 10,060 | 1049 | | CF05合约 | 15225 | -170 | 462,143 | 40346 | 794,513 | -43467 | | CF09合约 | 15305 | -90 | 118,736 | 36413 | 201,364 | 14333 | | CY01合约 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | CY05合约 | 21100 | -145 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market contradictions are not significant. The previous expectation of a downward adjustment in the new - year cotton planting area has been reflected in the market. The cotton sales progress on the demand side is still fast, at a high level in the same period of previous years. Considering the approaching Spring Festival, the short - term change in the demand side is expected to be small. Supported by market bullish factors, the cotton fundamentals still have certain support. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [6]. - It is predicted that the US cotton will likely fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and Zhengzhou cotton will also fluctuate within a range. One can consider building long positions on dips and hold light positions during the Spring Festival. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Disk**: The prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 70; the prices of CY05 and CY09 contracts decreased by 45 and 25 respectively, while the CY01 contract had no trading. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also had different changes [2]. - **Spot Price**: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,967 yuan/ton, down 45; Cot A was 72.80 cents/pound, and the price of other spot products also had corresponding fluctuations [2]. - **Price Difference**: There were different price differences in cotton and yarn across different periods and varieties, and the price differences also had corresponding changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month cotton inter - period spread was 530 with no change, and the CY05 - CF05 cross - variety spread was 5,750, up 25 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - On February 11, 2026, the Xinjiang - bound cotton road transport price index was 0.1402 yuan/ton·km, remaining flat month - on - month. It is expected to remain relatively stable in the short term [4]. - In September 2025, the EU's clothing import value was 21.699 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 14.21% and a month - on - month increase of 15.12%. In October, it was 20.407 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 3.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.95%. The overall import volume remained high, but the unit price continued to decline [4]. - In January, the proportion of enterprises with an operating rate of 90% and above was 44.74%, a decrease of 6.37 percentage points from the previous month; the proportion of enterprises with an operating rate between 61% - 89% was 36.84%, an increase of 7.95 percentage points. The proportion of enterprises with an increased cotton consumption was 31.58%, a decrease of 1.75 percentage points; the proportion of those with a decreased cotton consumption was 23.68%, an increase of 3.68 percentage points [5]. Trading Logic - With minor market contradictions, the previous expectation of a reduced cotton planting area has been reflected. The cotton sales progress is fast, but considering the Spring Festival, the short - term demand change is expected to be small. Supported by bullish factors, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [6]. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is predicted that US cotton will likely fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and Zhengzhou cotton will also fluctuate within a range. One can consider building long positions on dips and hold light positions during the Spring Festival [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]. - **Options**: Wait and see [9]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market has basically stopped, with only a small amount of goods moving in Xinjiang. Some spinning mills have raised their quotes, and inland spinning mills have started to have centralized holidays. The market for all - cotton grey fabrics has basically stopped, and most fabric mills have stopped quoting prices, with prices remaining stable for now [9]. Third Part: Options - **Option Contract Data**: On January 19, 2026, for options such as CF605C14600.CZC, CF605C14200.CZC, and CF605P13800.CZC, there were corresponding data on closing prices, price changes, implied volatility, etc [11]. - **Volatility**: The 60 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 9.2812, with a slight increase in volatility compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of different options was also provided [11]. - **Option Strategy**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.8667, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.4688. The trading volume of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides relevant figures such as the price difference of domestic and foreign cotton under 1% tariff, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the price difference between CY05 and CF05, CY01 and CF01, and the price difference between CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [14][18][23][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton fundamentals remain strong, with an upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [5]. - In the short - term, the US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range. For trading strategies, it is advisable to build long positions on dips for the single - side, and to remain on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 70 points; CY05 decreased by 150 points, and CY09 decreased by 70 points. The trading volume of most contracts increased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CF05 increased by 118,425, and its open interest decreased by 4,804 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price increased by 25 yuan/ton, while the FCY IndexC33S price decreased by 349. Other spot prices such as Cot A, Indian S - 6, etc., had different changes [2]. - **Spreads**: In cotton and棉纱, there were various spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 530 with no change, and the CY05 - CF05 spread was 5,835, down 80 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - As of January 31, 2026, Pakistan's 2025/26 new cotton market volume reached 859,000 tons, a 0.6% year - on - year increase. Textile mills' purchases were 773,000 tons, up 0.2% year - on - year, and unsold new cotton was 54,000 tons, a 25% year - on - year decrease [4]. - As of January 31, 1,099 cotton processing enterprises in China conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 7.262 million tons. Among them, 1,018 enterprises in Xinjiang inspected 7.166 million tons, and 81 enterprises in the inland inspected 95,000 tons [4]. - As of January 31, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 78.6% complete, a 18 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, 22.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year, and 3.3 percentage points faster than the average of the past three years [4]. 3.2.2 Trading Logic - There are reports that Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to decrease by 266,000 mu to 3.621 million mu, a 7% reduction. However, several large textile projects are expected to be launched in Xinjiang, which will benefit cotton consumption [5]. 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: The US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range in the short - term. Consider building long positions on dips [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Remain on the sidelines [6]. - **Options**: Remain on the sidelines [6]. 3.2.4 Cotton Yarn Industry News - Last night, Zhengzhou cotton traded sideways. As logistics began to take holidays, the trading in the pure cotton yarn market weakened. Spinning mills focused on order fulfillment and inventory preparation, and the overall inventory decreased. The operating rate of inland spinning mills continued to decline, while that in Xinjiang remained high. The price of pure cotton yarn was stable, with some manufacturers testing price increases. Most inland spinning mills will finish their holidays around the 25th of the twelfth lunar month, and only a small number of Xinjiang spinning mills will take the Spring Festival holiday [7]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, cotton fabric mills reported a decrease in new orders. It is expected that the number of mills taking holidays will increase significantly this weekend. The finished - product inventory of cotton fabric mills remains high, and the price of cotton fabric is expected to remain stable in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Options - The 60 - day HV of cotton was 9.2812 yesterday, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF605 - C - 14600 was 13.3%, CF605 - C - 14200 was 11.3%, and CF605 - P - 13800 was 11.2% [9]. - Yesterday, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.8667, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today [10]. - Option trading strategy: Remain on the sidelines [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong with upward potential in the long - run. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. In the short - term, ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures, CF01 closed at 15190 with a 75 - point increase, CF05 at 14650 (+75), and CF09 at 14780 (+95). For cotton yarn futures, CY01 closed at 20250 (unchanged), CY05 at 20495 (+35), and CY09 at 20750 (+245). Trading volumes and open interest showed various changes [2] - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B was at 15987 yuan/ton, down 196; Cot A was at 73.95 cents/pound. Different yarn and fiber prices had different changes, with some remaining stable [2] - **Spreads**: Cotton and cotton yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads also changed. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 540 (unchanged) [2] 2. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - As of January 31, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 78.6% complete, 18 percentage points higher month - on - month and 22.5 percentage points faster year - on - year [4] - As of January 30, 2026, the cumulative inspection of U.S. upland and Pima cotton was 296.18 million tons, accounting for 97.7% of the estimated annual output, 6% slower year - on - year [4] - As of February 1, the national cotton notarized inspection volume was 727.4 million tons, up 13.8% year - on - year, with Xinjiang accounting for 717.8 million tons (up 14.1%) and the inland area 9.6 million tons (down 5.7%) [5] - **Trading Logic**: There are news that Xinjiang's cotton planting area is expected to decrease by 266 million mu in 2026, a 7% reduction. However, several textile projects in Xinjiang are expected to boost cotton consumption, so the cotton fundamentals are strong [6] - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - sided**: ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to trade in a range in the short - term. Consider building long positions on dips [7] - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7] - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - Market trading has weakened, with traders and some fabric mills restocking on a small scale. Yarn mills' quotes are basically stable, while traders' quotes are slightly weak [9] - As the Spring Festival approaches, cotton fabric mills have fewer new orders, lower operating rates, and high finished - product inventories. Cotton fabric prices are expected to be stable in the short - term [9] 3. Options - The 60 - day HV of cotton was 9.2812 yesterday, with slightly increased volatility. The implied volatilities of different options were provided. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased in both open interest and trading volume [10] - Recommend a wait - and - see attitude for options [11] 4. Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton basis for different months, and spreads between cotton yarn and cotton futures contracts [13][16][20][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market fundamentals are strong due to factors such as fast sales progress of 2025/26 new cotton, potential reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area, and expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity. With the easing of Sino - US relations and tariff cuts, there is a positive outlook for textile exports. Technically, cotton has increased in volume and broken through the previous platform, suggesting potential for future price increases. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. The outlook for US cotton is likely to be range - bound, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish. For now, it is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of most cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts declined. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13,940 with a decrease of 60, and the CY01 contract closed at 19,855 with a decrease of 40. Trading volumes and open interest also changed, with some contracts showing decreases and others increases [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B (cotton) spot price was 15,130 yuan/ton, up 68, and the CY IndexC32S (cotton yarn) was 20,830, unchanged. Other spot prices such as Cot A, FC Index, etc., also had different changes [2]. - **Price Spreads**: Cotton and cotton yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads changed. For instance, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was - 5, down 15, and the CY01 - CF01 spread was 5,915, up 20 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views **Cotton Market News** - As of December 13, 2024, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 10.1% complete, up 4.8 percentage points month - on - month but 2.1 percentage points slower than the same period last year. The slow start was due to late harvests of previous crops in some areas. Bahia has started large - scale planting, and Mato Grosso is expected to reach its peak in January [4]. - For the week ending November 20, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 33,700 tons, down 21% week - on - week and 14% from the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipping volume was 27,400 tons, up 7% week - on - week but 15% lower than the previous four - week average [4]. - As of November 18, 2025, the net long position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 21.36%, down 0.7 percentage points week - on - week [4]. **Trading Logic** - Fundamentals are positive with fast sales of new cotton, potential reduction in Xinjiang planting area, and expected expansion of textile mills' production capacity. The easing of Sino - US relations and tariff cuts are also beneficial for textile exports [5]. **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side**: US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7]. - **Options**: Wait and see [8]. **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - Zhengzhou cotton is in a bullish trend, but the pure cotton yarn market has weak trading, mainly driven by rigid demand. Weaving mills' inventories are high, but some are replenishing stocks near the year - end. Cotton yarn prices were stable to weak last week, and some spinning mills with high inventory are reducing prices. Xinjiang spinning mills maintain high operating rates due to price advantages, while those in the inland areas have seen a decline. Attention should be paid to Zhengzhou cotton trends and downstream stock replenishment [8]. - The trading of cotton grey fabrics is generally dull, with only partial areas having restocking. Some weaving mills are operating on small orders, and order processing fees are low. Purchases are mainly small - scale, and inventory reduction is limited [8]. Third Part: Options - **Option Contract Data**: On November 24, 2025, for example, the CF601C13400.CZC option contract had a closing price of 183, up 71%, and an implied volatility of 6.7% [10]. - **Volatility**: The 10 - day HV of cotton was 6.4492, with a slight increase. The implied volatilities of different option contracts varied, such as 6.7% for CF601 - C - 13400, 11.4% for CF601 - P - 13000, and 17.8% for CF601 - P - 12400 [10]. - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [12]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The content mainly includes various charts such as the 1% tariff - adjusted domestic and foreign cotton price spread, cotton basis for different months, and spreads between cotton yarn and cotton contracts for different months. These charts show historical price data trends from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton price broke through the previous platform and showed strong momentum, and it is expected to remain strong in the future due to favorable fundamental and macro factors. It is recommended to buy long positions on dips. [6] - The US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trend upward with fluctuations. [7] - For the cotton market, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy for arbitrage and options trading. [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts were 13,860, 13,850, and 14,025 respectively, with price increases of 80, 90, and 125. The trading volumes of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts were relatively small, at 227, 8, and 2 lots respectively. [2] - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,013 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The Cot A price was 73.95 cents/pound. [2] - **Price Spreads**: In cotton cross - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 10 (down 10), the 5 - 9 spread was - 175 (down 35), and the 9 - 1 spread was 165 (up 45). In cotton - yarn cross - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was - 180 (down 55), the 5 - 9 spread was - 130 (down 10), and the 9 - 1 spread was 65. [2] 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - In the US cotton - growing regions, the average temperature decreased and precipitation was stable. The La Nina climate in the Northern Hemisphere winter may lead to lower - than - normal temperatures and potential drought during the sowing season. [4] - The Indian Cotton Association (CAI) adjusted the 2025/26 cotton balance sheet, with increased production, imports, and exports, and decreased domestic demand, resulting in a continued increase in ending stocks. [4] - In Pakistan, as of November 30, 2025, the new cotton market volume decreased by 1% year - on - year, textile mills' purchases decreased by 4% year - on - year, and unsold cotton increased by 16% year - on - year. [5] 3.2.2 Trading Logic - Fundamentals: The 2025/26 new cotton had a good harvest, and the sales progress was fast. There were rumors that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang might decrease next year, and Xinjiang textile mills were expected to expand production capacity. [6] - Macro - factors: The easing of Sino - US relations and the mutual reduction of tariffs were beneficial to China's textile and clothing exports. [6] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: The US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trend upward with fluctuations. [7] - **Arbitrage and Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. [8][9] 3.2.4 Cotton - yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was average, with high - count combed yarns selling well and inventories of other varieties slightly increasing. Spinners' price increases were somewhat accepted by downstream buyers, but the cash - flow situation was still not optimistic. [9] - The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market remained light, and manufacturers were mainly focused on inventory digestion. [9] 3.3 Options - On November 24, 2025, for the CF601C13400.CZC option, the closing price was 183.00, with a 71.0% increase; for the CF601P13000.CZC option, the closing price was 7.00, with a 75.9% decrease; for the CF601P12400.CZC option, the closing price was 2.00, with an 83.3% decrease. [11] - The 10 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton increased slightly. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively. [11] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased in both open interest and trading volume. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy for options trading. [12][13] 3.4 Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - adjusted domestic and international cotton price spreads, cotton basis for January, May, and September contracts, CY - CF spreads, and CF cross - period spreads. [15][18][22][23]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Agricultural Products Daily Report dated December 10, 2024, focusing on cotton and cotton yarn [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13780, up 40, with a trading volume of 177,854 hands (an increase of 19801) and an open interest of 474,318 (a decrease of 4249) [2] - CF05 contract closed at 13760, up 35, with a trading volume of 116,043 hands (an increase of 19584) and an open interest of 496,555 (an increase of 27804) [2] - CF09 contract closed at 13900, up 40, with a trading volume of 2,112 hands (a decrease of 243) and an open interest of 15,702 (an increase of 594) [2] - CY01 contract closed at 19840, up 45, with a trading volume of 237 hands (a decrease of 107) and an open interest of 1320 (a decrease of 104) [2] - CY05 contract closed at 19965, up 15, with a trading volume of 8 hands (unchanged) and an open interest of 68 (a decrease of 2) [2] - CY09 contract closed at 20085, unchanged, with no trading volume and an open interest of 9 (unchanged) [2] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was priced at 15004 yuan/ton, down 5; CY IndexC32S was 20800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Cot A was 73.70 cents/pound, compared to the previous 73.95; FCY IndexC33S was 21059 yuan/ton, up 6 [2] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 73.32 cents/pound, down 0.18; Indian S - 6 was 55800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Polyester staple fiber was 7450 yuan/ton (compared to the previous 70); pure polyester yarn T32S was 11050 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Viscose staple fiber was 12800 yuan/ton, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17320 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 month spread was 20, up 5; 5 - 9 month spread was - 140, down 5; 9 - 1 month spread was 120, unchanged [2] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 month spread was - 125, up 30; 5 - 9 month spread was - 120, up 15; 9 - 1 month spread was 245, down 45 [2] - Cross - variety spread: CY01 - CF01 was 6060, up 5; CY05 - CF05 was 6205, down 20; CY09 - CF09 was 6185, down 40 [2] - Domestic - foreign spreads: domestic - foreign cotton spread (1% tariff) was 1895, down 12; domestic - foreign cotton spread (sliding tariff) was 962, unchanged; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 259, down 6 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - According to the USDA's latest December global cotton production and sales forecast, total production was slightly reduced to 2608 million tons, total consumption was slightly reduced to 2582 million tons, and ending stocks increased by 1 million tons to 1654 million tons [4] - The Indian Cotton Association (CAI) reported that as of November 30, 2025, for the 2025/26 cotton balance sheet, compared with last month's assessment, production was increased by 8 million tons, imports were increased by 9 million tons, exports were increased by 2 million tons, and domestic demand was decreased by 9 million tons, resulting in an increase of 23 million tons in ending stocks. Compared with the previous year, beginning stocks increased by 36 million tons, production decreased by 5 million tons, imports increased by 15 million tons, domestic demand decreased by 32 million tons, exports remained flat, and ending stocks increased by 79 million tons [4] - The average temperature in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas (92.9% of production) was 44.31°F, 8.87°F lower than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.84 inches, 0.72 inches higher than the same period last year. In the Texas cotton - producing area, the average temperature was 48.22°F, 9.5°F lower than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.52 inches, 0.51 inches higher than the same period last year. The temperature in the U.S. cotton - producing areas and Texas is decreasing and rainfall is stable. The La Nina climate in the Northern Hemisphere winter is increasing the impact, and it is expected that the subsequent temperature will be lower than the historical average. The cotton - producing areas in the U.S. South are expected to be warmer and drier in winter, which may lead to drought during the sowing season [5] Trading Logic - In terms of fundamentals, with the large - scale listing of new cotton in November, there may be some selling - hedging pressure. On the supply side, although this year's production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. On the demand side, as the peak season ends, the market enters a relatively off - season. Overall, with a large amount of new cotton on the market, the new - year production is expected to increase significantly but the increase may be less than expected. The recent order performance on the demand side is average, but the previous negative factors have basically been reflected in the market. The current cotton sales progress is at a high level in the same period over the years. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will mostly fluctuate strongly [6] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected that the future trend of U.S. cotton will mostly be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly [7] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8] - Options: Wait and see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is average. The combed high - count yarn has a good sales volume, while the inventory of other varieties has slightly increased. Traders and downstream fabric mills still mainly make rigid purchases, and some fabric mills have started year - end replenishment for next year's peak season. The prices were basically stable yesterday. After the recent price increase by spinning mills, there is a certain degree of acceptance from the downstream, but the overall cash - flow situation is still not optimistic, and the operating rate in the inland area has decreased. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream replenishment [9] - The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market remains light. Manufacturers generally believe that there will be no significant improvement in orders in the short term, so they mainly focus on digesting inventory, with the willingness to sell as the main driving force. The sales of high - count and high - density varieties for spring and summer use in previous years are ordinary this year, and fabric mills have a strong willingness to accept orders [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - On November 24, 2025, for CF601C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 00 EBE, the increase/decrease rate was 71.0%, IV was 6.7%, Delta was 0.7924, Gamma was 0.0012, Vega was 8.9763, Theta was - 2.5396, the theoretical leverage was 74.2350, and the actual leverage was 58.8238 [11] - For CF601P13000.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 7.00, the increase/decrease rate was - 75.9%, IV was 11.4%, Delta was - 0.0470, Gamma was 200003, Vega was 3.0820, Theta was - 12967, the theoretical leverage was 1,940.7143, and the actual leverage was 912136 [11] - For CF601P12400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 2.00, the increase/decrease rate was - 83.3%, IV was 17.3%, Delta was - 0.0106, Gamma was 0.0001, Vega was 0.8840, Theta was - 0.5394, the theoretical leverage was 6,7925000, and the actual leverage was 72,0005 [11] Volatility and Strategy - Yesterday, the 10 - day HV of cotton was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 6.7%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 11.4%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 17.8% [11] - Yesterday, the position PCR of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 0.7339, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6421. Today, the trading volumes of both call and put options have decreased. The option strategy is to wait and see [12][13] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the domestic - foreign cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [15][18][22][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to short - term domestic cotton price is expected to be range - bound. Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be oscillating with a slight upward trend, while US cotton is expected to be range - bound in the future. For the cotton yarn industry, the overall trading atmosphere is light, and subsequent attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream replenishment [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Disk**: For cotton futures contracts, the closing price of CF01 is 13750 with 0% change, CF05 is 13725 with a 5 - point increase, and CF09 is 13845 with a 10 - point decrease. For cotton yarn futures contracts, CY01 closes at 19775 with a 20 - point decrease, CY05 at 19905 with a 75 - point decrease, and CY09 at 20085 with no change. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also have corresponding changes [2] - **Spot Price**: The CCIndex3128B is 15009 yuan/ton with an 11 - point increase, Cot A is 74.20 cents/pound (compared with 74.70 previously), and other spot prices such as polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, etc., also have different price changes [2] - **Price Spread**: The cotton inter - period spreads (e.g., 1 - 5 month, 5 - 9 month, 9 - 1 month) and cotton yarn inter - period spreads have corresponding price changes. The cross - variety spreads (CY01 - CF01, CY05 - CF05, CY09 - CF09) and internal - external spreads (internal - external cotton spread, internal - external yarn spread) also show different changes [2] 3.2 Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: As of October 28, 2025, the ICE cotton futures fund net long ratio was - 25.04% (a week - on - week increase of 2.76 percentage points). In November 2025, Brazilian cotton exports were 402500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37% and a year - on - year increase of 34%, with China, India, and Bangladesh being the top three importers. Cotton trading improved slightly during the decline of Zhengzhou cotton with reduced positions, and the short - to medium - term domestic cotton price may be range - bound [4] - **Trading Logic**: In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production has a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The demand side has entered the off - season after the peak season. Considering that the current cotton sales progress is at a high level in the same period over the years, Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be oscillating with a slight upward trend [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side trading, the future US cotton is expected to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend. For arbitrage and options, the suggestion is to wait and see [6][7] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: The recent overall trading atmosphere is light, with few new orders. The price of pure cotton yarn remains stable, but the cash flow of inland spinning mills is affected by the rising cotton spot price, and some spinning mills have reduced their operating rates and inventory has increased. Future attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream replenishment [9] 3.3 Options - **Option Data**: On November 24, 2025, for option contracts such as CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC, details such as the closing price, price change rate, implied volatility (IV), and other greek values are provided. The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility compared to the previous day [11] - **Option Strategy**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.7339 for positions and 0.6421 for trading volume. Today, the trading volumes of both call and put options have decreased. The suggestion for options trading is to wait and see [12][13]

Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts are presented, including CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts [2]. - Spot prices of various cotton and yarn products are provided, such as CCIndex3128B, Cot A, and CY IndexC32S, along with their price changes [2]. - Price spreads, including cotton and yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads, are given, along with their price changes [2]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of November 24, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 100%, with a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and the same as last year. The picking progress in southern, northern, and eastern Xinjiang was also about 100% [4]. - From November 20 to 26, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's cotton - growing areas was 0.3mm, lower than normal and last year. The cumulative rainfall from October 1 to November 26 was 106.6mm, higher than normal. With little precipitation this week, the listing pace of cotton in India accelerated [5]. Trading Logic - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is high, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The market has entered a relatively off - season after the peak season. Overall, the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger [7]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Last night, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated stronger, and cotton yarn futures fluctuated similarly. The trading volume in the pure - cotton yarn market changed little, with spinning mills mainly selling on a just - in - time basis. High - count combed yarns had good sales, while other varieties had a dull trading atmosphere. Affected by weak downstream demand, cotton yarn prices were slow to rise, the cotton - yarn price spread narrowed, and spinning mills' confidence and willingness to start production declined [8][9]. - The quantity and price of all - cotton clothing grey fabrics continued to decline. Weaving factories are waiting for spring and summer orders, but their inventory is rising, and some may sell at reduced prices before the Spring Festival [9]. Group 3: Options - The implied volatilities of CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC are 7.2%, 11.9%, and 18.4% respectively. The 10 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly compared to the previous day [11]. - The PCR of the main contract's open interest is 0.6924, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume is 0.5785. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased today [12]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [13].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily of November 26, 2024, focusing on the cotton and cotton yarn markets [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various cotton (CF) and cotton yarn (CY) futures contracts are presented. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13625 with a decrease of 20, and its trading volume was 172,621 with a decrease of 65278 [2] Spot Market - Spot prices and price changes of various cotton and cotton yarn products are provided, such as the CCIndex3128B at 14882 yuan/ton with an increase of 89, and the CY IndexC32S at 20660 yuan/ton with no change [2] Spread Market - Different spreads, including cotton and cotton yarn inter - month spreads and cross - product spreads, are given. For instance, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton is 40 with a decrease of 25, and the CY01 - CF01 spread is 6445 with an increase of 25 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - The average temperature and rainfall in the main US cotton - producing areas have increased. As of November 23, the cotton harvest rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states is 79%, slower than last year and the five - year average. The 2025/26 cotton prices and transaction basis in Xinjiang are also reported [4] Trading Logic - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is high, the expected increase may be lower than previously thought. The market has entered a relatively off - season after the peak season. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will mostly fluctuate within a limited range [5] Trading Strategies - For the single - side trading, it is expected that US cotton will fluctuate within a range, and Zhengzhou cotton will also show a fluctuating trend. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The night - session of Zhengzhou cotton maintained a fluctuating trend. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was average, with few new orders. The inventory of pure cotton yarn continued to rise. The price of pure cotton yarn was stable with a weakening trend. The demand for all - cotton clothing grey cloth was weak [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - The data of several cotton options contracts, including the closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, and other indicators, are provided. For example, the CF601C13400.CZC contract closed at 183.00 with a 71.0% increase, and its implied volatility was 6.7% [11] Volatility and Strategy - The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly. The implied volatilities of different options contracts are reported. The PCR values of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for options trading [11][12][13] Group 5: Related Attachments - There are multiple charts showing the spreads between domestic and foreign cotton markets, cotton basis at different months, spreads between cotton and cotton yarn, and spreads between different cotton futures contracts [14][18][23][25]