研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 11 月 25 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 联系方式： :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究所 农产品研发报告 第二部分 市场消息及观点 【棉花市场消息】 1、11 月 17 日-11 月 23 日，新疆机采棉平均收购价格 6.05 元/公斤，较前一周下跌 0.06 元/公斤，同比下 跌 0.18 元/公斤；手摘棉平均收购价格为 6.69 元/公斤，较前一周下跌 0.11 元/公斤，同比下跌 0.07 元/公斤。 内地籽棉平均收购价相对稳定，周均价为 6.75 元/公斤，较前一周下跌 0.01 元/公斤。截止 11 月 23 日，全国 共有 1044 家棉花加工企业进行公证检验，检验重量 369.5 万吨。其中新疆 992 家加工企业，检验重量 366.2 万 吨；内地 52 家加工企业，检验重量 3.3 万吨。 2、 截止 11 月 23 日，美棉 15 个棉花主要种植州棉花收割率为 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply side has a large number of new cotton flowers on the market, with a significant increase in production in the new year but the increase may be less than expected; the demand side has average recent orders, and previous negative factors have been reflected in the market. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to mainly fluctuate, with relatively limited upward and downward space. Sino-US trade policies may have a significant impact on the market [5] - It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a range-bound pattern, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger range-bound trend. Previous long positions should take profits [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts increased by 80, 65, and 65 respectively; the closing price of CY01 increased by 25, CY05 decreased by 19845, and CY09 increased by 19930. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also had corresponding changes [2] - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B decreased by 34 yuan/ton, Cot A increased to 77.10 cents/pound, and prices of other varieties also had different changes [2] - **Spread**: Cotton and yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads all had corresponding changes [2] Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of November 3, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 96.1%, with different progress in different regions [4] - On November 5, 2025, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang cotton increased by 1.33% compared with the previous period, and it is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [4] - As of November 4, 2025, 1018 cotton processing enterprises had processed and inspected 9,218,299 bales of cotton, weighing 2.0819 million tons [4] Trading Logic - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Although this year's production is abundant, the expected increase may be less than previous expectations. The market has entered a relatively off - season after the peak season. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to mainly fluctuate [5] Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger. Take profits on previous long positions [6] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7] - **Options**: Wait and see [8] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Although the macro - atmosphere improved last week, the actual downstream demand did not improve significantly. The actual transaction price of pure cotton yarn changed little, and the market was mainly small, urgent, and rigid - demand orders. The follow - up needs to pay attention to downstream demand and Zhengzhou cotton trends [9] - The spot market of all - cotton grey cloth remained weak, and the weaving mills' raw material procurement was mainly based on immediate needs. Downstream customers mainly placed rigid - demand orders and were cautious about the weaving mills' sales information [9] Third Part: Options - The 120 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly compared with the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 7.5%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.8%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 14.7% [11] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased, and the trading volume of both call and put options decreased [12] - Option strategy: Wait and see [8][13] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices, cotton basis for different months, spread between cotton yarn and cotton, and spread between different cotton contracts [15][18][22][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) is likely to fluctuate, with limited upward and downward space. The supply side features a large number of new flowers on the market, with a significant increase in production this year but the increase may be less than expected. The demand side enters a relatively off - season after the peak season, and previous negative factors have been mostly reflected in the market. Meanwhile, future Sino - US trade policies may have a significant impact on the market [7]. - It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a fluctuating state, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger fluctuating trend. For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [8][9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts of cotton futures are 13,600, 13,615, and 13,780 respectively, with corresponding increases of 5, 10, and 25. The closing prices of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts of cotton yarn futures are 19,920, 0, and 0 respectively, with corresponding increases of 45, - 19,920, and - 20,085. There are also data on trading volume, open interest, and their changes [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B is 14,859 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton; the price of Cot A is 76.45 cents/pound, up 77.40 cents/pound; the price of (FC Index):M: to - port price is 75.60 cents/pound, down 0.80 cents/pound. There are also prices and price changes of other spot products [2]. - **Spread**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the spread between January and May is - 15, down 5; between May and September is - 165, down 15; between September and January is 180, up 20. In cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the spread between January and May is 19,920, up 19,965; between May and September is 0, up 165; between September and January is - 19,920, down - 20,130. There are also cross - variety spreads and internal - external spreads [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - On November 3, 2025, the price of China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 14,859 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from last Friday; the price of 2129B was 15,137 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. The delivery price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 14,530 yuan/ton for 3128B, down 10 yuan/ton; 14,820 yuan/ton for 2129B, unchanged from last Friday. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton opened higher and then fluctuated downward on Friday, with the basis quote basically stable and the spot transaction price relatively stable [4]. - On November 2, 2025, the acquisition index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.30 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day; the acquisition index of hand - picked cotton was 7.04 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. In Aksu, the lint percentage of seed cotton purchased by some ginneries was 0.5% - 1.0% lower than last year, and the purchase price of high - lint - percentage seed cotton remained at about 6.4 - 6.5 yuan/kg [5]. - In September 2025, Japan's clothing imports entered the peak season, with both the import volume and value increasing significantly compared to the previous month. The import value was 372.276 billion yen (equivalent to 2.524 billion US dollars), a year - on - year increase of 7.52% and a month - on - month increase of 13.12%. The import volume was 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.13% and a month - on - month increase of 21.91%. From January to September, Japan's cumulative clothing import value was 2,685.447 billion yen (equivalent to 18.103 billion US dollars), a year - on - year increase of 5.1%, and the cumulative import volume was 713,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.69% [5]. - As of October 27, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 33,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.42%. Among them, bonded cotton was 3.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.43%; non - bonded cotton was 2,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26%. In terms of the origin of imported cotton, in the cotton inventory of Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone, US cotton accounted for 26.64%, a year - on - year decrease of 20.87 percentage points; Brazilian cotton accounted for 23.38%, a year - on - year increase of 4.37 percentage points; Australian cotton accounted for 45.94%, a year - on - year increase of 14.29 percentage points; other countries and regions accounted for 4.05%, a year - on - year increase of 2.21 percentage points. The net inbound volume was - 807.15 tons, with 1,154.15 tons out of storage and 347 tons into storage. The inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased slightly, and cotton imports continued to recover in September and October, with an increase in US and Brazilian cotton arriving in Hong Kong, but the outbound speed accelerated, leading to a decline in storage capacity [6]. Trading Logic - In terms of fundamentals, with a large number of new flowers on the market in November, there may be some selling and hedging pressure in the market. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. On the demand side, after the peak season, the market enters a relatively off - season. Overall, with a large number of new flowers on the market on the supply side and a significant increase in production this year but the increase may be less than expected, and with average recent orders on the demand side but previous negative factors already reflected in the market, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate, with limited upward and downward space. In addition, there may be trade negotiations between China and the US, and the Sino - US tariff agreement expires in November, so future Sino - US trade policies may have a significant impact on the market [7]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a fluctuating state, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger fluctuating trend [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [9]. - **Options**: Wait and see [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Although the macro - atmosphere improved slightly last week and market confidence recovered to some extent, the actual downstream demand did not improve significantly, and there was still significant hedging pressure on cotton. After some quotes of pure cotton yarn were tentatively raised, the market returned to calm, and most actual transaction prices changed little. Due to the lack of order support, only a few varieties had good sales, such as C40, high - count export varieties, and low - count compact - spun yarn. Most air - jet spun and combed yarns had relatively slow sales, and the market mainly consisted of small, urgent, and necessary orders. In the future, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and the trend of Zhengzhou cotton. The current tax - included cash price of high - compact C32S produced in Jiangsu is 21,300 - 21,500 yuan/ton, subject to negotiation for actual orders [10]. - The spot market for all - cotton grey cloth remained weak, with insufficient trading atmosphere. The quantity and price of pure - cotton cloth in the spot market were weak, so fabric mills mostly purchased raw materials as needed. Downstream customers mainly placed necessary orders. With weak terminal demand, the operation space was reduced, and most customers adopted a wait - and - see attitude towards the fabric mills' dumping information. Even if the price was discounted, they were reluctant to stock up without orders [10]. Third Part: Options - **Option Contract Data**: On November 3, 2025, for the option contract CF601C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13,600, the closing price was 260, and the decline was 10.0%. For CF601P13000.CZC, the closing price was 25, and the decline was 34.2%. For CF601P12400.CZC, the closing price was 8, and the decline was 60.0%. There are also data on implied volatility, Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta, theoretical leverage, and actual leverage [12]. - **Volatility and Trading Suggestion**: The 120 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 7.5%, that of CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.8%, and that of CF601 - P - 12400 was 14.7%. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7135, and the PCR of the trading volume of the main contract was 0.7629. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see for options [13][14]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the chart of the internal - external market cotton price difference under 1% tariff, the charts of cotton basis for January, May, and September, the charts of the spread between CY05 and CF05, CY01 and CF01, CF9 - 1, and CF5 - 9 [15][19][20].

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting provides a comprehensive assessment of the cotton yarn industry in China from 2025 to 2031, highlighting market trends and investment potential [1] Import Data Summary - In July 2025, China's cotton yarn imports amounted to 110,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% [1] - The import value for the same period was $22.9 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 24.5% [1] Company Profile - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing a range of services including feasibility studies and customized consulting [1] - The company emphasizes its commitment to delivering high-quality services and market insights to empower investment decisions [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report - Date: August 20, 2024 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 14,055, down 45; trading volume was 283,228 lots, an increase of 136,381 lots; open interest was 478,466 lots, a decrease of 10,082 lots [3] - CY01 contract closed at 20,085, down 55; trading volume was 140 lots, an increase of 15 lots; open interest was 396 lots, an increase of 24 lots [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 15,240 yuan/ton, up 6; CY IndexC32S was 20,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Cot A was 79.30 cents/pound, up 0.15; FCY IndexC33S was 22,045 yuan/ton, down 88 [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spread: 1 - 5 month spread was 15, down 5; 5 - 9 month spread was 240, down 20; 9 - 1 month spread was - 255, up 25 [3] - Yarn inter - month spread: 1 - 5 month spread was 20,085, down 55; 5 - 9 month spread was - 20,045, up 50; 9 - 1 month spread was - 40, up 5 [3] - Cross - variety spread: CY01 - CF01 was 6,030, down 10; CY05 - CF05 was - 14,040, up 40; CY09 - CF09 was 6,245, down 30 [3] - Domestic - foreign spread: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,300, up 41; sliding - scale domestic - foreign cotton spread was 660, up 28; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1,345, up 88 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of August 16, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 48.9% (98% of the area), a 9.9 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, 16.3% slower than last year [6] - As of August 16, 2025, India's 2025/26 cotton planting area was 10.696 million hectares, a 3.7% year - on - year decrease [6] - As of July 31, 2025, CAI's assessment of India's 2024/25 cotton balance sheet showed an increase in beginning inventory by 150,000 tons, demand by 100,000 tons, exports by 20,000 tons, and ending inventory by 30,000 tons compared to the previous month [7] Trading Logic - Macro: After recent China - US talks, tariffs are likely to be extended for 90 days, and China's anti - involution policies have a positive impact on commodities [8] - Fundamentals: Supply is tight, and the issuance of sliding - scale tariff quotas is a key factor; demand is expected to improve from the off - season to the peak season in August, but if it falls short of expectations, it will be negative for Zhengzhou cotton [8] - Overall: The short - term market is likely to be slightly bullish and volatile [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is likely to be slightly bullish and volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly bullish and volatile in the short term with limited upside [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell put options [11] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Pure - cotton yarn market: Recent transactions are fair, spinning mills' inventory has decreased slightly, but profit margins have not improved significantly, with inland spinning mills' cash - flow losses at around 500 yuan/ton; short - term yarn prices are expected to be stable [13] - Cotton gray fabric market: Demand has not improved continuously, weaving mills' shipment speed is average, and traders' purchasing enthusiasm is low; inventory is slowly decreasing [13] Group 4: Options Option Data - On August 20, 2025, for CF601C14000.CZC, the underlying contract price was 14,055, the closing price was 363, down 7.9%, IV was 10.7%, Delta was 0.5385, etc. [15] - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.2651, with a slight increase from the previous day; the implied volatility of CF601 - C - 14000 was 10.7%, CF601 - P - 13600 was 10.4%, and CF601 - P - 13400 was 10.4% [15] Option Strategies - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7956 for open interest and 0.8463 for trading volume; both call and put trading volumes increased [16] - Recommendation: Sell put options [17]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant decline in China's cotton yarn imports in May 2025, with a volume of 100,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 14.5% [1] - The import value for the same period is reported at 22.4 million USD, which shows a year-on-year decline of 22.5% [1] - The data is sourced from Chinese customs, indicating a trend in the cotton yarn market that may impact related industries [3]