研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 16 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 联系方式： :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 13940 | -60 | 172,925 | -62960 | 286,672 | -60453 | | CF05合约 | 13945 | -45 | 365,259 | 39588 | 713,587 | 34708 | | CF09合约 | 14120 | -45 | 19,927 | 1914 | 28,836 | 2126 | | CY01合约 | 19855 | -40 | 160 | -161 | 945 | -74 | | CY05合约 | 20040 | -20 | 36 | 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton price broke through the previous platform and showed strong momentum, and it is expected to remain strong in the future due to favorable fundamental and macro factors. It is recommended to buy long positions on dips. [6] - The US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trend upward with fluctuations. [7] - For the cotton market, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy for arbitrage and options trading. [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts were 13,860, 13,850, and 14,025 respectively, with price increases of 80, 90, and 125. The trading volumes of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts were relatively small, at 227, 8, and 2 lots respectively. [2] - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,013 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The Cot A price was 73.95 cents/pound. [2] - **Price Spreads**: In cotton cross - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 10 (down 10), the 5 - 9 spread was - 175 (down 35), and the 9 - 1 spread was 165 (up 45). In cotton - yarn cross - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was - 180 (down 55), the 5 - 9 spread was - 130 (down 10), and the 9 - 1 spread was 65. [2] 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - In the US cotton - growing regions, the average temperature decreased and precipitation was stable. The La Nina climate in the Northern Hemisphere winter may lead to lower - than - normal temperatures and potential drought during the sowing season. [4] - The Indian Cotton Association (CAI) adjusted the 2025/26 cotton balance sheet, with increased production, imports, and exports, and decreased domestic demand, resulting in a continued increase in ending stocks. [4] - In Pakistan, as of November 30, 2025, the new cotton market volume decreased by 1% year - on - year, textile mills' purchases decreased by 4% year - on - year, and unsold cotton increased by 16% year - on - year. [5] 3.2.2 Trading Logic - Fundamentals: The 2025/26 new cotton had a good harvest, and the sales progress was fast. There were rumors that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang might decrease next year, and Xinjiang textile mills were expected to expand production capacity. [6] - Macro - factors: The easing of Sino - US relations and the mutual reduction of tariffs were beneficial to China's textile and clothing exports. [6] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: The US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trend upward with fluctuations. [7] - **Arbitrage and Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. [8][9] 3.2.4 Cotton - yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was average, with high - count combed yarns selling well and inventories of other varieties slightly increasing. Spinners' price increases were somewhat accepted by downstream buyers, but the cash - flow situation was still not optimistic. [9] - The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market remained light, and manufacturers were mainly focused on inventory digestion. [9] 3.3 Options - On November 24, 2025, for the CF601C13400.CZC option, the closing price was 183.00, with a 71.0% increase; for the CF601P13000.CZC option, the closing price was 7.00, with a 75.9% decrease; for the CF601P12400.CZC option, the closing price was 2.00, with an 83.3% decrease. [11] - The 10 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton increased slightly. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively. [11] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased in both open interest and trading volume. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy for options trading. [12][13] 3.4 Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - adjusted domestic and international cotton price spreads, cotton basis for January, May, and September contracts, CY - CF spreads, and CF cross - period spreads. [15][18][22][23]

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 10 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 联系方式： :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第二部分 市场消息及观点 【棉花市场消息】 1、根据 USDA 最新 12 月全球棉花产销预测，总产量略有调减至 2608 万吨；总消费略有调减至 2582 万 吨；期末库存增加 1 万吨至 1654 万吨。 2、 印度棉花协会(CAI)最新报告显示，截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，CAI 评估印度棉花 2025/26 年度棉花 平衡表，与上月评估相比产量调增 8 万吨，进口调增 9 万吨，出口增加 2 万吨而国内需求下调 9 万吨，导致 期末库存继续增加 23 万吨。与上一年度比较，期初库存增加 36 万吨，产量减少 5 万吨，进口增加 15 万吨， 国内需求减少 32 万吨，出口持平，期末库存增加 79 万吨。2025/26 年度平衡表调整偏空，进口关税豁免导 致年底进口量大幅增长，而需求因美国关税导致下滑 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 08 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 联系方式： :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 13750 | 0 | 164,365 | 13916 | 489,062 | -8717 | | CF05合约 | 13725 | 5 | 96,136 | 7406 | 451,830 | 15893 | | CF09合约 | 13845 | -10 | 2,715 | 1153 | 14,647 | -91 | | CY01合约 | 19775 | -20 | 1324 | -799 | 1605 | -696 | | CY05合约 | 19905 | -75 | 3 | -1 | 72 | ...

Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts are presented, including CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts [2]. - Spot prices of various cotton and yarn products are provided, such as CCIndex3128B, Cot A, and CY IndexC32S, along with their price changes [2]. - Price spreads, including cotton and yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads, are given, along with their price changes [2]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of November 24, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 100%, with a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and the same as last year. The picking progress in southern, northern, and eastern Xinjiang was also about 100% [4]. - From November 20 to 26, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's cotton - growing areas was 0.3mm, lower than normal and last year. The cumulative rainfall from October 1 to November 26 was 106.6mm, higher than normal. With little precipitation this week, the listing pace of cotton in India accelerated [5]. Trading Logic - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is high, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The market has entered a relatively off - season after the peak season. Overall, the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger [7]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Last night, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated stronger, and cotton yarn futures fluctuated similarly. The trading volume in the pure - cotton yarn market changed little, with spinning mills mainly selling on a just - in - time basis. High - count combed yarns had good sales, while other varieties had a dull trading atmosphere. Affected by weak downstream demand, cotton yarn prices were slow to rise, the cotton - yarn price spread narrowed, and spinning mills' confidence and willingness to start production declined [8][9]. - The quantity and price of all - cotton clothing grey fabrics continued to decline. Weaving factories are waiting for spring and summer orders, but their inventory is rising, and some may sell at reduced prices before the Spring Festival [9]. Group 3: Options - The implied volatilities of CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC are 7.2%, 11.9%, and 18.4% respectively. The 10 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly compared to the previous day [11]. - The PCR of the main contract's open interest is 0.6924, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume is 0.5785. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased today [12]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [13].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily of November 26, 2024, focusing on the cotton and cotton yarn markets [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various cotton (CF) and cotton yarn (CY) futures contracts are presented. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13625 with a decrease of 20, and its trading volume was 172,621 with a decrease of 65278 [2] Spot Market - Spot prices and price changes of various cotton and cotton yarn products are provided, such as the CCIndex3128B at 14882 yuan/ton with an increase of 89, and the CY IndexC32S at 20660 yuan/ton with no change [2] Spread Market - Different spreads, including cotton and cotton yarn inter - month spreads and cross - product spreads, are given. For instance, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton is 40 with a decrease of 25, and the CY01 - CF01 spread is 6445 with an increase of 25 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - The average temperature and rainfall in the main US cotton - producing areas have increased. As of November 23, the cotton harvest rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states is 79%, slower than last year and the five - year average. The 2025/26 cotton prices and transaction basis in Xinjiang are also reported [4] Trading Logic - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is high, the expected increase may be lower than previously thought. The market has entered a relatively off - season after the peak season. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will mostly fluctuate within a limited range [5] Trading Strategies - For the single - side trading, it is expected that US cotton will fluctuate within a range, and Zhengzhou cotton will also show a fluctuating trend. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The night - session of Zhengzhou cotton maintained a fluctuating trend. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was average, with few new orders. The inventory of pure cotton yarn continued to rise. The price of pure cotton yarn was stable with a weakening trend. The demand for all - cotton clothing grey cloth was weak [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - The data of several cotton options contracts, including the closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, and other indicators, are provided. For example, the CF601C13400.CZC contract closed at 183.00 with a 71.0% increase, and its implied volatility was 6.7% [11] Volatility and Strategy - The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly. The implied volatilities of different options contracts are reported. The PCR values of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for options trading [11][12][13] Group 5: Related Attachments - There are multiple charts showing the spreads between domestic and foreign cotton markets, cotton basis at different months, spreads between cotton and cotton yarn, and spreads between different cotton futures contracts [14][18][23][25]

Group 1: Market Information - Futures contracts: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts are 13585, 13530, 13665, 20075, 19860, and 20020 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 125, 85, 55, 350, 180, and -55. The trading volumes and open interests also show various changes [2]. - Spot prices: CCIndex3128B is 14793 yuan/ton with a change of 2, Cot A is 74.00 cents/pound, and other spot prices like those of polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, etc., also have their respective values and changes [2]. - Price spreads: Cotton and棉纱跨期 spreads, as well as跨品种 and内外 spreads, are presented with their corresponding values and price changes [2]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - Purchase prices: From November 17 - 23, the average purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was 6.05 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous week and 0.18 yuan/kg year - on - year; hand - picked cotton was 6.69 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week and 0.07 yuan/kg year - on - year. The average purchase price of inland seed cotton was relatively stable at 6.75 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week. As of November 23, 1044 cotton processing enterprises had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 369.5 million tons [4]. - US cotton harvest: As of November 23, the cotton harvest rate in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 79%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average. The harvest in Texas and other major producing areas is progressing orderly, and the low - temperature and less - rainy weather is beneficial for the harvest and improves the processing and inspection quality [4]. - Price quotes: The 2025/26 north and south Xinjiang machine - picked 3130/30B/with impurity within 3 has a one - price quote of 14600 - 14800, and the same - quality point - price basis is mostly above CF01 + 1100, with a small amount in the 1050 - 1100 range for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. Some 2025/26 north Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/28B/with impurity within 2.5 had a transaction basis of CF01 + 950 - 1000 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [5]. Trading Logic - Fundamental analysis: In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. On the demand side, after the peak season, the market enters a relatively off - season. Overall, with new cotton flooding the market and a large increase in production but a potentially smaller - than - expected increase, and with average recent orders but previous negative factors already reflected in the market, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate within a limited range [6]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: The future trend of US cotton is likely to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate [7]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7][9]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Market conditions: Yesterday, Zhengzhou cotton strengthened significantly, and cotton yarn futures followed with a larger increase, boosting the atmosphere. However, the trading in the pure - cotton yarn market has weakened, with fewer new orders and mainly downstream rigid - demand purchases. High - count yarns have maintained good sales, with stable prices, while other yarn varieties have seen stable - to - decreasing prices, with some manufacturers reducing prices by 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The overall situation of traceability orders has changed little, but due to the deterioration of Sino - Japanese relations, the confidence of exporters to Japan has declined, and they are more cautious. The future trend of Zhengzhou cotton, downstream replenishment in mid - to - late December, and the international situation need to be monitored [9]. - Fabric market: The all - cotton clothing grey fabric market remains sluggish, with inventory levels still rising. Conventional varieties face fierce homogeneous competition due to poor demand, and some differentiated varieties also have low demand. In the export market, there is a significant shortage of terminal orders, and competition among grey fabric mills is intense. It is expected that this week will continue the sluggish situation of last week, and the inventory of weaving mills will continue to increase [9]. Group 3: Options - Option data: The closing prices, price changes, implied volatilities, and other parameters of options such as CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC are presented. The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 are 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [11]. - Option strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [13]. Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures: The report includes figures such as the 1% tariff - based domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton January basis, cotton May basis, cotton September basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [15][18][22][23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply side has a large number of new cotton flowers on the market, with a significant increase in production in the new year but the increase may be less than expected; the demand side has average recent orders, and previous negative factors have been reflected in the market. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to mainly fluctuate, with relatively limited upward and downward space. Sino-US trade policies may have a significant impact on the market [5] - It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a range-bound pattern, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger range-bound trend. Previous long positions should take profits [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts increased by 80, 65, and 65 respectively; the closing price of CY01 increased by 25, CY05 decreased by 19845, and CY09 increased by 19930. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also had corresponding changes [2] - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B decreased by 34 yuan/ton, Cot A increased to 77.10 cents/pound, and prices of other varieties also had different changes [2] - **Spread**: Cotton and yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads all had corresponding changes [2] Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of November 3, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 96.1%, with different progress in different regions [4] - On November 5, 2025, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang cotton increased by 1.33% compared with the previous period, and it is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [4] - As of November 4, 2025, 1018 cotton processing enterprises had processed and inspected 9,218,299 bales of cotton, weighing 2.0819 million tons [4] Trading Logic - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Although this year's production is abundant, the expected increase may be less than previous expectations. The market has entered a relatively off - season after the peak season. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to mainly fluctuate [5] Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger. Take profits on previous long positions [6] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7] - **Options**: Wait and see [8] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Although the macro - atmosphere improved last week, the actual downstream demand did not improve significantly. The actual transaction price of pure cotton yarn changed little, and the market was mainly small, urgent, and rigid - demand orders. The follow - up needs to pay attention to downstream demand and Zhengzhou cotton trends [9] - The spot market of all - cotton grey cloth remained weak, and the weaving mills' raw material procurement was mainly based on immediate needs. Downstream customers mainly placed rigid - demand orders and were cautious about the weaving mills' sales information [9] Third Part: Options - The 120 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly compared with the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 7.5%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.8%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 14.7% [11] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased, and the trading volume of both call and put options decreased [12] - Option strategy: Wait and see [8][13] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices, cotton basis for different months, spread between cotton yarn and cotton, and spread between different cotton contracts [15][18][22][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) is likely to fluctuate, with limited upward and downward space. The supply side features a large number of new flowers on the market, with a significant increase in production this year but the increase may be less than expected. The demand side enters a relatively off - season after the peak season, and previous negative factors have been mostly reflected in the market. Meanwhile, future Sino - US trade policies may have a significant impact on the market [7]. - It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a fluctuating state, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger fluctuating trend. For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [8][9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts of cotton futures are 13,600, 13,615, and 13,780 respectively, with corresponding increases of 5, 10, and 25. The closing prices of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts of cotton yarn futures are 19,920, 0, and 0 respectively, with corresponding increases of 45, - 19,920, and - 20,085. There are also data on trading volume, open interest, and their changes [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B is 14,859 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton; the price of Cot A is 76.45 cents/pound, up 77.40 cents/pound; the price of (FC Index):M: to - port price is 75.60 cents/pound, down 0.80 cents/pound. There are also prices and price changes of other spot products [2]. - **Spread**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the spread between January and May is - 15, down 5; between May and September is - 165, down 15; between September and January is 180, up 20. In cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the spread between January and May is 19,920, up 19,965; between May and September is 0, up 165; between September and January is - 19,920, down - 20,130. There are also cross - variety spreads and internal - external spreads [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - On November 3, 2025, the price of China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 14,859 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from last Friday; the price of 2129B was 15,137 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. The delivery price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 14,530 yuan/ton for 3128B, down 10 yuan/ton; 14,820 yuan/ton for 2129B, unchanged from last Friday. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton opened higher and then fluctuated downward on Friday, with the basis quote basically stable and the spot transaction price relatively stable [4]. - On November 2, 2025, the acquisition index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.30 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day; the acquisition index of hand - picked cotton was 7.04 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. In Aksu, the lint percentage of seed cotton purchased by some ginneries was 0.5% - 1.0% lower than last year, and the purchase price of high - lint - percentage seed cotton remained at about 6.4 - 6.5 yuan/kg [5]. - In September 2025, Japan's clothing imports entered the peak season, with both the import volume and value increasing significantly compared to the previous month. The import value was 372.276 billion yen (equivalent to 2.524 billion US dollars), a year - on - year increase of 7.52% and a month - on - month increase of 13.12%. The import volume was 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.13% and a month - on - month increase of 21.91%. From January to September, Japan's cumulative clothing import value was 2,685.447 billion yen (equivalent to 18.103 billion US dollars), a year - on - year increase of 5.1%, and the cumulative import volume was 713,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.69% [5]. - As of October 27, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 33,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.42%. Among them, bonded cotton was 3.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.43%; non - bonded cotton was 2,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26%. In terms of the origin of imported cotton, in the cotton inventory of Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone, US cotton accounted for 26.64%, a year - on - year decrease of 20.87 percentage points; Brazilian cotton accounted for 23.38%, a year - on - year increase of 4.37 percentage points; Australian cotton accounted for 45.94%, a year - on - year increase of 14.29 percentage points; other countries and regions accounted for 4.05%, a year - on - year increase of 2.21 percentage points. The net inbound volume was - 807.15 tons, with 1,154.15 tons out of storage and 347 tons into storage. The inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased slightly, and cotton imports continued to recover in September and October, with an increase in US and Brazilian cotton arriving in Hong Kong, but the outbound speed accelerated, leading to a decline in storage capacity [6]. Trading Logic - In terms of fundamentals, with a large number of new flowers on the market in November, there may be some selling and hedging pressure in the market. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. On the demand side, after the peak season, the market enters a relatively off - season. Overall, with a large number of new flowers on the market on the supply side and a significant increase in production this year but the increase may be less than expected, and with average recent orders on the demand side but previous negative factors already reflected in the market, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate, with limited upward and downward space. In addition, there may be trade negotiations between China and the US, and the Sino - US tariff agreement expires in November, so future Sino - US trade policies may have a significant impact on the market [7]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a fluctuating state, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger fluctuating trend [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [9]. - **Options**: Wait and see [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Although the macro - atmosphere improved slightly last week and market confidence recovered to some extent, the actual downstream demand did not improve significantly, and there was still significant hedging pressure on cotton. After some quotes of pure cotton yarn were tentatively raised, the market returned to calm, and most actual transaction prices changed little. Due to the lack of order support, only a few varieties had good sales, such as C40, high - count export varieties, and low - count compact - spun yarn. Most air - jet spun and combed yarns had relatively slow sales, and the market mainly consisted of small, urgent, and necessary orders. In the future, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and the trend of Zhengzhou cotton. The current tax - included cash price of high - compact C32S produced in Jiangsu is 21,300 - 21,500 yuan/ton, subject to negotiation for actual orders [10]. - The spot market for all - cotton grey cloth remained weak, with insufficient trading atmosphere. The quantity and price of pure - cotton cloth in the spot market were weak, so fabric mills mostly purchased raw materials as needed. Downstream customers mainly placed necessary orders. With weak terminal demand, the operation space was reduced, and most customers adopted a wait - and - see attitude towards the fabric mills' dumping information. Even if the price was discounted, they were reluctant to stock up without orders [10]. Third Part: Options - **Option Contract Data**: On November 3, 2025, for the option contract CF601C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13,600, the closing price was 260, and the decline was 10.0%. For CF601P13000.CZC, the closing price was 25, and the decline was 34.2%. For CF601P12400.CZC, the closing price was 8, and the decline was 60.0%. There are also data on implied volatility, Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta, theoretical leverage, and actual leverage [12]. - **Volatility and Trading Suggestion**: The 120 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 7.5%, that of CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.8%, and that of CF601 - P - 12400 was 14.7%. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7135, and the PCR of the trading volume of the main contract was 0.7629. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see for options [13][14]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the chart of the internal - external market cotton price difference under 1% tariff, the charts of cotton basis for January, May, and September, the charts of the spread between CY05 and CF05, CY01 and CF01, CF9 - 1, and CF5 - 9 [15][19][20].

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting provides a comprehensive assessment of the cotton yarn industry in China from 2025 to 2031, highlighting market trends and investment potential [1] Import Data Summary - In July 2025, China's cotton yarn imports amounted to 110,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% [1] - The import value for the same period was $22.9 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 24.5% [1] Company Profile - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing a range of services including feasibility studies and customized consulting [1] - The company emphasizes its commitment to delivering high-quality services and market insights to empower investment decisions [1]