Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The issuance of 300,000 tons of import sliding tax quotas is likely to benefit US cotton, leading to a narrowing of the domestic - foreign price difference. The impact on domestic cotton supply is relatively small, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton may follow the upward trend of US cotton [6]. - Crude oil has declined recently, and cotton has also fallen under the overall market atmosphere. However, considering the current market support, the downward space is expected to be limited [6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures, the closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts are 15,780, 15,215, and 15,355 respectively, with price changes of - 20, - 65, and - 45. For棉纱 futures, the closing prices of CY05 and CY09 contracts are 21,555 and 21,430 respectively, with price changes of 20 and 20. The CY01 contract has no trading data [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B is 16,732 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan; the price of CY IndexC32S is 22,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. Other spot prices such as Cot A, FCY IndexC33S, etc. also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Price Spreads**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread is 565, up 45; the 5 - 9 spread is - 140, down 20; the 9 - 1 spread is - 425, down 25. In棉纱 inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread is - 21,555, down 20; the 5 - 9 spread is 125, unchanged. In cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 is - 15,780, up 20; CY05 - CF05 is 6,340, up 85; CY09 - CF09 is 6,075, up 65. The domestic - foreign cotton price spreads (1% tariff) is 2,709, down 386; the domestic - foreign cotton price spreads (sliding tax) is - 1,321, down 23; the domestic - foreign yarn price spread is - 366, up 116 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - On March 24, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - outbound cotton was 0.1562 yuan/ton·km, up 0.58% month - on - month. The transportation demand decreased month - on - month, and the freight rate index is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term [4]. - As of March 17, 2026, the net long position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 11.67% (an increase of 8.9 percentage points week - on - week, and an increase of 2 percentage points last week) [4]. - Due to the continuous fermentation of the Middle East conflict, global oil and gas prices have risen significantly, and domestic fertilizer prices have generally increased. However, most cotton farmers who completed winter stockpiling before the Spring Festival are less affected, while those who did not will face increased procurement costs [5]. - **Trading Logic** - The issuance of 300,000 tons of import sliding tax quotas is likely to benefit US cotton and narrow the domestic - foreign price difference, with a relatively small impact on domestic cotton supply. Zhengzhou cotton prices may follow the upward trend of US cotton [6]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: It is expected that US cotton will be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have not changed much. It is advisable to build long positions on dips and not chase high prices [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7]. - **Options**: Wait and see [7]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - Spinning mills are actively purchasing raw materials. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is fair, but downstream orders are weakening. Spinning mills are reluctant to lower prices, and the high - price spot prices of some products are weakening [8]. - The market of all - cotton grey cloth has not changed much, and the sales continue. The in - machine orders of weaving factories continue, mainly for domestic sales. Foreign trade inquiries are active, but orders need further confirmation. Weaving factories are trying to reduce inventory [8]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the domestic - foreign cotton price difference under 1% tariff, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the spreads of CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [9][11][15][17][19][22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The additional issuance of 300,000 tons of import processing trade sliding duty quotas for cotton is likely to benefit US cotton and narrow the price gap between domestic and international markets The impact on the domestic cotton supply is relatively small, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton may follow the upward trend of US cotton in the long - term Recently, due to the decline in crude oil prices, cotton prices have fallen, but the decline is expected to be limited [6] - In the short - term, US cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have not changed significantly It is recommended to build long positions at low prices and avoid chasing high prices For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11] - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is okay, and the supply of medium - and high - count yarns may be tight in the future The overall situation of the all - cotton grey fabric market remains stable, with more domestic orders and few foreign orders The market is paying attention to the replenishment situation during the Tomb - sweeping Festival [11] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 150, 205, and 185 respectively The trading volume of CF05 and CF09 increased by 87,881 and 57,726 respectively, while that of CF01 decreased by 2,215 The open interest of CF01 and CF09 increased by 1,166 and 11,085 respectively, while that of CF05 decreased by 56,651 For the CY series, CY01 had no trading volume, and the closing prices of CY05 and CY09 decreased by 180 and 315 respectively [2] - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B increased by 13 to 16,897 yuan/ton, and the price of CY IndexC32S remained unchanged at 22,050 yuan/ton The price of Cot A increased by 2.3 to 78.75 cents/pound, and the price of FCY IndexC33S increased by 72 to 22,568 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: In the cotton inter - period spreads, the spread between January and May increased by 55 to 420, the spread between May and September decreased by 20 to - 95, and the spread between September and January decreased by 35 to - 325 In the yarn inter - period spreads, the spread between January and May increased by 180 to - 21,300, the spread between May and September increased by 135 to 65, and the spread between September and January decreased by 315 to 21,235 In the cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 increased by 150, CY05 - CF05 increased by 25, and CY09 - CF09 decreased by 130 The 1% tariff - based domestic - foreign cotton price spread decreased by 450 to 2,874, the sliding - duty domestic - foreign cotton price spread decreased by 87 to - 1,156, and the domestic - foreign yarn price spread decreased by 72 to - 518 [2] 2. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: On March 17, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - outbound cotton remained unchanged at 0.1566 yuan/ton·km, and it is expected to remain stable in the short - term As of February 28, 2026, the CAI's assessment of India's 2025/26 cotton balance sheet shows that production increased by 60,000 tons, domestic demand increased by 170,000 tons, imports decreased by 50,000 tons, and ending inventory decreased by 160,000 tons compared with the previous month In 2026, China imported 210,000 tons of cotton in January and 170,000 tons in February, with a cumulative import of 370,000 tons from January to February, a year - on - year increase of 41% [4][5] - **Trading Logic**: The additional issuance of 300,000 tons of import processing trade sliding duty quotas for cotton is beneficial to US cotton, and it may also drive up the price of Zhengzhou cotton, but the impact on domestic supply is relatively small The short - term decline in cotton prices is limited due to market support [6] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to build long positions at low prices for US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is okay, and the supply of medium - and high - count yarns may be tight in the future The all - cotton grey fabric market remains stable, with more domestic orders and few foreign orders The market is waiting for the improvement of foreign orders in April and paying attention to the replenishment situation during the Tomb - sweeping Festival [11] 3. Options - **Option Data**: On January 19, 2026, the closing prices of CF605C14600.CZC, CF605C14200.CZC, and CF605P13800.CZC decreased by 16.9%, 17.7%, and 34.1% respectively The 60 - day HV of cotton is 9.2812, and the implied volatilities of CF605 - C - 14600, CF605 - C - 14200, and CF605 - P - 13800 are 13.3%, 11.3%, and 11.2% respectively [13] - **Option Strategy**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.8667 for open interest and 0.4688 for trading volume, and the trading volume of both call and put options decreased today It is recommended to wait and see [14][15] 4. Relevant Attachments - The report provides eight figures, including the domestic - foreign cotton price spread under 1% tariff, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the spreads of CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [17][20][24][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The additional issuance of 300,000 tons of import processing trade sliding tariff quotas for cotton is likely to be beneficial to US cotton, narrowing the price difference between domestic and international cotton. The impact on domestic cotton supply is relatively small, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton may follow the upward trend of US cotton [6]. - In the short - term, US cotton is expected to fluctuate and strengthen. Zhengzhou cotton shows a strong technical performance. It is advisable to build long positions on dips rather than chase highs. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 100, 65, and 65 respectively. The CY01 contract had no trading. The closing price of CY05 decreased by 5, and CY09 increased by 75. There were changes in trading volume and open interest for each contract [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 56 yuan/ton, IndexC32S CY increased by 50 yuan, and there were price changes in other spot varieties [2]. - **Spread**: There were changes in cotton and yarn inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and domestic - foreign spreads [2] 3.2 Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - According to CONAB's March 2026 forecast, the total cotton output in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 3.795 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous month. The planting area is reduced to 2.0136 million hectares, and the yield per unit area remains stable. Consumption and exports are increased, leading to a reduction in ending stocks [4]. - The CAI's report shows that as of February 28, 2026, the cotton output in India in the 2025/26 season increased by 60,000 tons, domestic demand increased by 170,000 tons, imports decreased by 50,000 tons, and ending stocks decreased by 160,000 tons compared with the previous month [4]. - In 2026, the total amount of sliding tariff processing trade quotas for cotton imports is 300,000 tons, issued on a contract - based application basis [5]. - **Trading Logic** - The additional issuance of 300,000 tons of sliding tariff quotas is beneficial to US cotton. The large profit margin between domestic and international cotton prices under the sliding tariff system is conducive to imports. Considering the possible visit of Trump to China, China's purchase of US agricultural products may be a topic of negotiation [6]. - The impact of the additional issuance of quotas on Zhengzhou cotton is complex. In the past, additional quotas either had little impact on the domestic market or led to an increase in Zhengzhou cotton prices following the rise of US cotton. This time, the additional 300,000 - ton quota is only 100,000 tons more than last year, with a relatively small impact on domestic supply. However, the early issuance leaves room for future policies [6]. - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate and strengthen in the short - term. Zhengzhou cotton shows a strong technical performance. It is advisable to build long positions on dips rather than chase highs [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]. - **Options**: Wait and see [9]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - In the pure - cotton yarn market, the trading is differentiated. The sales of medium - and high - count yarns are tight, and the price of high - tight C40S in some areas has increased by 200 - 300 yuan. The sales of medium - and low - count yarns and rotor - spun yarns are still weak. Downstream fabric mills maintain a high operating rate, but there are not many long - term orders. Spinning mills in the inland and Xinjiang maintain a high operating rate, but due to rising raw material prices, they have a certain psychology of hoarding goods, and inventory depletion has slowed down. Attention should be paid to the trend of international crude oil and the sustainability of downstream orders [9]. - In the all - cotton grey fabric market, the market situation has not changed much, and the sales are acceptable. Weaving mills' in - progress orders continue, mainly for domestic sales. Weaving mills are observing the continuation of orders after the Tomb - sweeping Festival. The grey fabric price is stable, and weaving mills are trying to reduce inventory to ensure cash flow [9] 3.3 Options - **Option Data**: The report provides data on option contracts such as CF605C14600.CZC, CF605C14200.CZC, and CF605P13800.CZC, including closing prices, price changes, implied volatility, etc. [11] - **Volatility**: The 60 - day HV of cotton is 9.2812, with a slight increase in volatility compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF605 - C - 14600 is 13.3%, CF605 - C - 14200 is 11.3%, and CF605 - P - 13800 is 11.2% [11] - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [13] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the price difference between domestic and international cotton under 1% tariff, cotton basis for different months, the spread between CY and CF, and the spread between different cotton futures contracts [15][18][22][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton have certain support. Considering the reduction in global cotton production and the potential for increased consumption, there may be a tight - balance situation. It is advisable to consider building long positions on dips. The short - term trend of US cotton is likely to be range - bound, while the technical performance of Zhengzhou cotton is strong. It is recommended to build long positions on dips and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Disk**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 75, 50, and 45 respectively; the closing price of CY05 decreased by 45, and CY09 increased by 20. The trading volume of CF01 increased by 219, while that of CF05 and CF09 decreased by 25667 and 8358 respectively. The trading volume of CY05 increased by 1324, and CY09 increased by 7. The open interest of CF01 increased by 1238, CF09 increased by 2369, and CY05 decreased by 499 [2] - **Spot Price**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 62, Cot A increased from 74.95 to 75.90, the price of FC Index:M: to - port decreased by 1.00, the price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70, and the price of FCY IndexC33S increased by 59. The prices of other spot products remained unchanged [2] - **Spread**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 25, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 5, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 30. In yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 45, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 65, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 20. In cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 increased by 75, CY05 - CF05 increased by 5, and CY09 - CF09 increased by 65. The 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread increased by 115, the sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread increased by 61, and the internal - external yarn spread decreased by 59 [2] 3.2 Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: On March 4, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - bound cotton was 0.1472 yuan/ton·km, remaining unchanged from the previous day. In December 2025/26, India's棉纱 export volume was 10.14 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.01% and a month - on - month increase of 11.64%. From August to December 2025, India's total棉纱 export volume was 45.6 tons. In January 2026, Japan's clothing imports rebounded month - on - month, with an import value of 17.8 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 6.33% and a month - on - month increase of 16.45% [5][6] - **Trading Logic**: The fundamentals of cotton have no obvious negative factors. Global cotton production has been reduced by 3% (US production has been reduced, and China's by 9%). The supply is expected to be 2525 and consumption 2614, showing a relatively tight situation. As of February 12, the signing of US cotton improved, with 10.57 tons signed, a month - on - month increase of 5.33 tons, and the cumulative signing was 192.79 tons, 7 percentage points lower than the same period last year [7] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to build long positions on dips for Zhengzhou cotton and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [8][9] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is light. Spinning mills are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and downstream fabric mills and traders are making rigid purchases. Some yarn mills reduced prices yesterday, but most are still waiting and seeing, with a trading discount of 200 - 300 yuan. The operating rate of inland spinning mills is gradually recovering. The operating rate of fabric mills is basically stable, but production is limited due to a shortage of workers. The in - production orders are mainly from before the Spring Festival, and new orders are still scarce [10][12] 3.3 Options - **Option Contract Information**: On January 19, 2026, the closing prices of CF605C14600.CZC, CF605C14200.CZC, and CF605P13800.CZC decreased by 16.9%, 17.7%, and 34.1% respectively. The implied volatilities were 13.3%, 11.3%, and 11.2% respectively [13] - **Volatility and Strategy**: The 60 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The PCR of the main contract's open interest was 0.8667, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see for options [13][14][15] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff internal - external cotton price spread, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [16][17][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the cotton market have certain support. Global cotton production has been adjusted down by 3%, with a 9% reduction in China's output. The supply - demand situation is relatively tight, and there may be a tight - balance situation if consumption continues to increase. It is advisable to consider building long positions on dips. For the short - term, it is expected that the US cotton will mostly fluctuate within a range, while the technical performance of Zhengzhou cotton is strong. One can consider building long positions on dips but not chasing high prices. For the cotton yarn industry, the trading has recovered to some extent, but the new orders for cotton - fabric are few, and the manufacturers' attitude is cautious [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts are 15630, 15225, and 15305 respectively, with price drops of 95, 170, and 90. The closing prices of CY05 and CY09 contracts are 21100 and 21150 respectively, both with a price drop of 145. The CY01 contract has no trading data [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B is 16633 yuan/ton, down 80; the price of CY IndexC32S is 21920, up 50. The price of Cot A is 75.65 cents/pound, and the price of FCY IndexC33S is 21517, up 54. The price of polyester staple fiber is 7450, up 70, and the price of pure polyester yarn T32S is 11130, unchanged. The price of viscose staple fiber is 12800, unchanged, and the price of viscose yarn R30S is 17330, unchanged [2]. - **Spread**: In the cotton inter - period spread, the 1 - 5 spread is 405, up 75; the 5 - 9 spread is - 80, down 80; the 9 - 1 spread is - 325, up 5. In the cotton yarn inter - period spread, the 1 - 5 spread is - 21100, up 145; the 5 - 9 spread is - 50, unchanged; the 9 - 1 spread is 21150, down 145. The CY01 - CF01 spread is 15630, up 95; the CY05 - CF05 spread is 5875, up 25; the CY09 - CF09 spread is 5845, down 55. The 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread is 3688, up 137; the sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread is 2691, up 83; the internal - external yarn spread is 403, down 4 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: On March 2, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - outbound cotton was 0.1465 yuan/ton·km, a 4.87% increase from the previous day. From February 19 to February 26, 2026, the water storage in the Murray - Darling Basin decreased by 1.9 billion liters. The current reservoir water storage is 10.694 billion liters, equivalent to 48% of the total capacity, 20% (2.69 billion liters) less than the same period last year. In January 2026, Japan's clothing imports rebounded month - on - month. The import value was 324.278 billion yen (equivalent to 1.78 billion US dollars), a 6.33% year - on - year decrease and a 16.45% month - on - month increase. In December 2026, the clothing import volume was 80,600 tons, a 5.99% year - on - year decrease and a 10.01% month - on - month increase [5]. - **Trading Logic**: The fundamentals of cotton have certain support. Global cotton production has been adjusted down by 3%, with a 9% reduction in China's output. The supply - demand situation is relatively tight, and there may be a tight - balance situation if consumption continues to increase. As of February 12, the contracted volume of US cotton was 105,700 tons, a 53,300 - ton increase from the previous period, and the cumulative contracted volume was 1.9279 million tons, 7 percentage points lower than the same period last year [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the short - term, it is expected that the US cotton will mostly fluctuate within a range, while the technical performance of Zhengzhou cotton is strong. One can consider building long positions on dips but not chasing high prices. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: Some manufacturers raised their quotes over the weekend, but the actual transactions were few. The trading has recovered to some extent, and traders and downstream fabric mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases with a cautious attitude. The cotton yarn inventory has decreased. The overall trading atmosphere of all - cotton grey fabric is weak. After the price quotes of grey fabric recovered, most of them were raised. For the peak season in March, manufacturers said they would take it one step at a time. Currently, there are few new orders, and fabric mills are cautious, with low purchasing enthusiasm and a strong wait - and - see attitude [9][10]. 3.3 Options - **Option Data**: On January 19, 2026, for the CF605C14600.CZC option, the closing price was 334, a 16.9% decrease, with an implied volatility of 13.3%. For the CF605C14200.CZC option, the closing price was 511, a 17.7% decrease, with an implied volatility of 11.3%. For the CF605P13800.CZC option, the closing price was 60, a 34.1% decrease, with an implied volatility of 11.2%. The 60 - day HV of cotton is 9.2812, and the volatility increased slightly compared to the previous day [12]. - **Option Strategy**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.8667, and the PCR of the trading volume of the main contract was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see [13][14]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the internal - external cotton spread under 1% tariff, the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis of cotton, the CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and the CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [15][20][22][25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market contradictions are not significant. The previous expectation of a downward adjustment in the new - year cotton planting area has been reflected in the market. The cotton sales progress on the demand side is still fast, at a high level in the same period of previous years. Considering the approaching Spring Festival, the short - term change in the demand side is expected to be small. Supported by market bullish factors, the cotton fundamentals still have certain support. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [6]. - It is predicted that the US cotton will likely fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and Zhengzhou cotton will also fluctuate within a range. One can consider building long positions on dips and hold light positions during the Spring Festival. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Disk**: The prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 70; the prices of CY05 and CY09 contracts decreased by 45 and 25 respectively, while the CY01 contract had no trading. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also had different changes [2]. - **Spot Price**: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,967 yuan/ton, down 45; Cot A was 72.80 cents/pound, and the price of other spot products also had corresponding fluctuations [2]. - **Price Difference**: There were different price differences in cotton and yarn across different periods and varieties, and the price differences also had corresponding changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month cotton inter - period spread was 530 with no change, and the CY05 - CF05 cross - variety spread was 5,750, up 25 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - On February 11, 2026, the Xinjiang - bound cotton road transport price index was 0.1402 yuan/ton·km, remaining flat month - on - month. It is expected to remain relatively stable in the short term [4]. - In September 2025, the EU's clothing import value was 21.699 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 14.21% and a month - on - month increase of 15.12%. In October, it was 20.407 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 3.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.95%. The overall import volume remained high, but the unit price continued to decline [4]. - In January, the proportion of enterprises with an operating rate of 90% and above was 44.74%, a decrease of 6.37 percentage points from the previous month; the proportion of enterprises with an operating rate between 61% - 89% was 36.84%, an increase of 7.95 percentage points. The proportion of enterprises with an increased cotton consumption was 31.58%, a decrease of 1.75 percentage points; the proportion of those with a decreased cotton consumption was 23.68%, an increase of 3.68 percentage points [5]. Trading Logic - With minor market contradictions, the previous expectation of a reduced cotton planting area has been reflected. The cotton sales progress is fast, but considering the Spring Festival, the short - term demand change is expected to be small. Supported by bullish factors, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [6]. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is predicted that US cotton will likely fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and Zhengzhou cotton will also fluctuate within a range. One can consider building long positions on dips and hold light positions during the Spring Festival [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]. - **Options**: Wait and see [9]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market has basically stopped, with only a small amount of goods moving in Xinjiang. Some spinning mills have raised their quotes, and inland spinning mills have started to have centralized holidays. The market for all - cotton grey fabrics has basically stopped, and most fabric mills have stopped quoting prices, with prices remaining stable for now [9]. Third Part: Options - **Option Contract Data**: On January 19, 2026, for options such as CF605C14600.CZC, CF605C14200.CZC, and CF605P13800.CZC, there were corresponding data on closing prices, price changes, implied volatility, etc [11]. - **Volatility**: The 60 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 9.2812, with a slight increase in volatility compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of different options was also provided [11]. - **Option Strategy**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.8667, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.4688. The trading volume of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides relevant figures such as the price difference of domestic and foreign cotton under 1% tariff, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the price difference between CY05 and CF05, CY01 and CF01, and the price difference between CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [14][18][23][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton fundamentals remain strong, with an upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [5]. - In the short - term, the US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range. For trading strategies, it is advisable to build long positions on dips for the single - side, and to remain on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 70 points; CY05 decreased by 150 points, and CY09 decreased by 70 points. The trading volume of most contracts increased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CF05 increased by 118,425, and its open interest decreased by 4,804 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price increased by 25 yuan/ton, while the FCY IndexC33S price decreased by 349. Other spot prices such as Cot A, Indian S - 6, etc., had different changes [2]. - **Spreads**: In cotton and棉纱, there were various spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 530 with no change, and the CY05 - CF05 spread was 5,835, down 80 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - As of January 31, 2026, Pakistan's 2025/26 new cotton market volume reached 859,000 tons, a 0.6% year - on - year increase. Textile mills' purchases were 773,000 tons, up 0.2% year - on - year, and unsold new cotton was 54,000 tons, a 25% year - on - year decrease [4]. - As of January 31, 1,099 cotton processing enterprises in China conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 7.262 million tons. Among them, 1,018 enterprises in Xinjiang inspected 7.166 million tons, and 81 enterprises in the inland inspected 95,000 tons [4]. - As of January 31, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 78.6% complete, a 18 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, 22.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year, and 3.3 percentage points faster than the average of the past three years [4]. 3.2.2 Trading Logic - There are reports that Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to decrease by 266,000 mu to 3.621 million mu, a 7% reduction. However, several large textile projects are expected to be launched in Xinjiang, which will benefit cotton consumption [5]. 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: The US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range in the short - term. Consider building long positions on dips [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Remain on the sidelines [6]. - **Options**: Remain on the sidelines [6]. 3.2.4 Cotton Yarn Industry News - Last night, Zhengzhou cotton traded sideways. As logistics began to take holidays, the trading in the pure cotton yarn market weakened. Spinning mills focused on order fulfillment and inventory preparation, and the overall inventory decreased. The operating rate of inland spinning mills continued to decline, while that in Xinjiang remained high. The price of pure cotton yarn was stable, with some manufacturers testing price increases. Most inland spinning mills will finish their holidays around the 25th of the twelfth lunar month, and only a small number of Xinjiang spinning mills will take the Spring Festival holiday [7]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, cotton fabric mills reported a decrease in new orders. It is expected that the number of mills taking holidays will increase significantly this weekend. The finished - product inventory of cotton fabric mills remains high, and the price of cotton fabric is expected to remain stable in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Options - The 60 - day HV of cotton was 9.2812 yesterday, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF605 - C - 14600 was 13.3%, CF605 - C - 14200 was 11.3%, and CF605 - P - 13800 was 11.2% [9]. - Yesterday, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.8667, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today [10]. - Option trading strategy: Remain on the sidelines [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong with upward potential in the long - run. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. In the short - term, ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures, CF01 closed at 15190 with a 75 - point increase, CF05 at 14650 (+75), and CF09 at 14780 (+95). For cotton yarn futures, CY01 closed at 20250 (unchanged), CY05 at 20495 (+35), and CY09 at 20750 (+245). Trading volumes and open interest showed various changes [2] - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B was at 15987 yuan/ton, down 196; Cot A was at 73.95 cents/pound. Different yarn and fiber prices had different changes, with some remaining stable [2] - **Spreads**: Cotton and cotton yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads also changed. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 540 (unchanged) [2] 2. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - As of January 31, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 78.6% complete, 18 percentage points higher month - on - month and 22.5 percentage points faster year - on - year [4] - As of January 30, 2026, the cumulative inspection of U.S. upland and Pima cotton was 296.18 million tons, accounting for 97.7% of the estimated annual output, 6% slower year - on - year [4] - As of February 1, the national cotton notarized inspection volume was 727.4 million tons, up 13.8% year - on - year, with Xinjiang accounting for 717.8 million tons (up 14.1%) and the inland area 9.6 million tons (down 5.7%) [5] - **Trading Logic**: There are news that Xinjiang's cotton planting area is expected to decrease by 266 million mu in 2026, a 7% reduction. However, several textile projects in Xinjiang are expected to boost cotton consumption, so the cotton fundamentals are strong [6] - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - sided**: ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to trade in a range in the short - term. Consider building long positions on dips [7] - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7] - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - Market trading has weakened, with traders and some fabric mills restocking on a small scale. Yarn mills' quotes are basically stable, while traders' quotes are slightly weak [9] - As the Spring Festival approaches, cotton fabric mills have fewer new orders, lower operating rates, and high finished - product inventories. Cotton fabric prices are expected to be stable in the short - term [9] 3. Options - The 60 - day HV of cotton was 9.2812 yesterday, with slightly increased volatility. The implied volatilities of different options were provided. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased in both open interest and trading volume [10] - Recommend a wait - and - see attitude for options [11] 4. Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton basis for different months, and spreads between cotton yarn and cotton futures contracts [13][16][20][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market fundamentals are strong due to factors such as fast sales progress of 2025/26 new cotton, potential reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area, and expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity. With the easing of Sino - US relations and tariff cuts, there is a positive outlook for textile exports. Technically, cotton has increased in volume and broken through the previous platform, suggesting potential for future price increases. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. The outlook for US cotton is likely to be range - bound, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish. For now, it is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of most cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts declined. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13,940 with a decrease of 60, and the CY01 contract closed at 19,855 with a decrease of 40. Trading volumes and open interest also changed, with some contracts showing decreases and others increases [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B (cotton) spot price was 15,130 yuan/ton, up 68, and the CY IndexC32S (cotton yarn) was 20,830, unchanged. Other spot prices such as Cot A, FC Index, etc., also had different changes [2]. - **Price Spreads**: Cotton and cotton yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads changed. For instance, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was - 5, down 15, and the CY01 - CF01 spread was 5,915, up 20 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views **Cotton Market News** - As of December 13, 2024, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 10.1% complete, up 4.8 percentage points month - on - month but 2.1 percentage points slower than the same period last year. The slow start was due to late harvests of previous crops in some areas. Bahia has started large - scale planting, and Mato Grosso is expected to reach its peak in January [4]. - For the week ending November 20, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 33,700 tons, down 21% week - on - week and 14% from the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipping volume was 27,400 tons, up 7% week - on - week but 15% lower than the previous four - week average [4]. - As of November 18, 2025, the net long position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 21.36%, down 0.7 percentage points week - on - week [4]. **Trading Logic** - Fundamentals are positive with fast sales of new cotton, potential reduction in Xinjiang planting area, and expected expansion of textile mills' production capacity. The easing of Sino - US relations and tariff cuts are also beneficial for textile exports [5]. **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side**: US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7]. - **Options**: Wait and see [8]. **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - Zhengzhou cotton is in a bullish trend, but the pure cotton yarn market has weak trading, mainly driven by rigid demand. Weaving mills' inventories are high, but some are replenishing stocks near the year - end. Cotton yarn prices were stable to weak last week, and some spinning mills with high inventory are reducing prices. Xinjiang spinning mills maintain high operating rates due to price advantages, while those in the inland areas have seen a decline. Attention should be paid to Zhengzhou cotton trends and downstream stock replenishment [8]. - The trading of cotton grey fabrics is generally dull, with only partial areas having restocking. Some weaving mills are operating on small orders, and order processing fees are low. Purchases are mainly small - scale, and inventory reduction is limited [8]. Third Part: Options - **Option Contract Data**: On November 24, 2025, for example, the CF601C13400.CZC option contract had a closing price of 183, up 71%, and an implied volatility of 6.7% [10]. - **Volatility**: The 10 - day HV of cotton was 6.4492, with a slight increase. The implied volatilities of different option contracts varied, such as 6.7% for CF601 - C - 13400, 11.4% for CF601 - P - 13000, and 17.8% for CF601 - P - 12400 [10]. - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [12]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The content mainly includes various charts such as the 1% tariff - adjusted domestic and foreign cotton price spread, cotton basis for different months, and spreads between cotton yarn and cotton contracts for different months. These charts show historical price data trends from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton price broke through the previous platform and showed strong momentum, and it is expected to remain strong in the future due to favorable fundamental and macro factors. It is recommended to buy long positions on dips. [6] - The US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trend upward with fluctuations. [7] - For the cotton market, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy for arbitrage and options trading. [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts were 13,860, 13,850, and 14,025 respectively, with price increases of 80, 90, and 125. The trading volumes of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts were relatively small, at 227, 8, and 2 lots respectively. [2] - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,013 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The Cot A price was 73.95 cents/pound. [2] - **Price Spreads**: In cotton cross - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 10 (down 10), the 5 - 9 spread was - 175 (down 35), and the 9 - 1 spread was 165 (up 45). In cotton - yarn cross - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was - 180 (down 55), the 5 - 9 spread was - 130 (down 10), and the 9 - 1 spread was 65. [2] 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - In the US cotton - growing regions, the average temperature decreased and precipitation was stable. The La Nina climate in the Northern Hemisphere winter may lead to lower - than - normal temperatures and potential drought during the sowing season. [4] - The Indian Cotton Association (CAI) adjusted the 2025/26 cotton balance sheet, with increased production, imports, and exports, and decreased domestic demand, resulting in a continued increase in ending stocks. [4] - In Pakistan, as of November 30, 2025, the new cotton market volume decreased by 1% year - on - year, textile mills' purchases decreased by 4% year - on - year, and unsold cotton increased by 16% year - on - year. [5] 3.2.2 Trading Logic - Fundamentals: The 2025/26 new cotton had a good harvest, and the sales progress was fast. There were rumors that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang might decrease next year, and Xinjiang textile mills were expected to expand production capacity. [6] - Macro - factors: The easing of Sino - US relations and the mutual reduction of tariffs were beneficial to China's textile and clothing exports. [6] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: The US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trend upward with fluctuations. [7] - **Arbitrage and Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. [8][9] 3.2.4 Cotton - yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was average, with high - count combed yarns selling well and inventories of other varieties slightly increasing. Spinners' price increases were somewhat accepted by downstream buyers, but the cash - flow situation was still not optimistic. [9] - The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market remained light, and manufacturers were mainly focused on inventory digestion. [9] 3.3 Options - On November 24, 2025, for the CF601C13400.CZC option, the closing price was 183.00, with a 71.0% increase; for the CF601P13000.CZC option, the closing price was 7.00, with a 75.9% decrease; for the CF601P12400.CZC option, the closing price was 2.00, with an 83.3% decrease. [11] - The 10 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton increased slightly. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively. [11] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased in both open interest and trading volume. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy for options trading. [12][13] 3.4 Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - adjusted domestic and international cotton price spreads, cotton basis for January, May, and September contracts, CY - CF spreads, and CF cross - period spreads. [15][18][22][23]