Market Overview - The refining and trading sector increased by 0.17% on September 24, with Guangju Energy leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.64, up 0.83%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13356.14, up 1.8% [1] Stock Performance - Guangju Energy (000096) closed at 11.57, up 3.40% with a trading volume of 101,500 shares and a turnover of 116 million yuan [1] - Baoli International (300135) closed at 4.59, up 3.38% with a trading volume of 690,400 shares and a turnover of 314 million yuan [1] - Tongkun Co. (601233) closed at 14.11, up 3.14% with a trading volume of 260,000 shares and a turnover of 362 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Wanbangda (300055) up 2.50%, Guochuang Gaoxin (002377) up 2.35%, and Kangjindun (603798) up 2.15% [1] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector saw a net inflow of 132 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 118 million yuan [2] - The main capital flow data indicates that Baoli International had a net inflow of 39.09 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 41.85 million yuan [3] - China Petroleum (601857) also saw a net inflow of 33.19 million yuan from institutional investors, despite a net outflow from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. has shown a mixed performance in stock price and financial metrics, with a notable increase in stock price year-to-date but a decline in recent trading days [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Tongkun Co., Ltd. reported operating revenue of 44.158 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.41% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 1.097 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.93% [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 3.203 billion yuan, with 341 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - As of September 24, 2023, Tongkun's stock price was 13.96 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 33.571 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has increased by 19.31% year-to-date, but has seen a decline of 3.39% over the last five trading days and 4.84% over the last twenty days [1]. - The stock experienced a net outflow of 810,800 yuan in principal funds, with significant buying and selling activity from large orders [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders was 70,600, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per person increased by 0.22% to 33,944 shares [2]. - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and Southern CSI 500 ETF, with notable changes in their holdings [3].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strategy based on industry rotation and thematic ETFs, recommending sectors such as agriculture, film and cinema, and aerospace equipment for the upcoming week [2][3]. - The strategy has shown a cumulative net return of approximately -0.21% for the period from September 15 to September 19, 2025, with an excess return of about 0.16% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [3][11]. - Since October 14, 2024, the strategy has achieved a cumulative return of approximately 24.91%, outperforming the CSI 300 ETF by about 6.36% [3]. Strategy Update - For the week of September 22, 2025, the model recommends increasing positions in the following ETFs: Grain ETF, Film ETF, Industrial Mother Machine ETF, and Oil & Gas ETF, while continuing to hold Aerospace ETF and Green Electricity ETF [2][10]. - The report includes specific ETFs and their respective weights, indicating a focus on sectors like agriculture (46.77% in Grain ETF) and film (45.35% in Film ETF) [10]. Performance Tracking - The report details the performance of various ETFs over the past week, highlighting that the average return of the ETF portfolio was -0.37%, while the CSI 300 ETF had a return of -0.21% [11]. - The report also notes that certain ETFs, such as the Green Electricity ETF and Aerospace ETF, continue to be held despite recent performance fluctuations [11].

Group 1 - The refining and trading sector experienced a decline of 0.77% compared to the previous trading day, with Baoli International leading the decline [1] - On the same day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.58, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13157.97, up 0.67% [1] Group 2 - In terms of capital flow, the refining and trading sector saw a net outflow of 414 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds had a net inflow of 233 million yuan and speculative funds had a net inflow of 181 million yuan [2]

Group 1 - The company reported a share price of 6.71 yuan as of September 19, 2025, down 3.03% from the previous week [1] - The total market capitalization of the company is 3.226 billion yuan, ranking 26th out of 30 in the refining and trading sector and 4330th out of 5153 in the A-share market [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 62 yuan for every 10 shares, based on current profitability and financial conditions [2][3] Group 2 - The growth in the natural gas business is attributed to increased market demand and the company's proactive strategies, including market expansion and optimizing station layouts [1] - The company aims to continue expanding its natural gas sales network and improving service quality while exploring collaboration opportunities with more clients [1] - As of August 31, 2025, the company has not yet implemented the share buyback plan [3] Group 3 - The company is strictly following the approved categories and amounts for related party transactions for the year 2025, with specifics depending on future operations and market conditions [2] - The profit growth in the first half of the year is due to inventory stocking, increased distribution margins, and a higher proportion of high-margin businesses [2] - The company plans to optimize its sales structure and expand into new markets and customer groups to increase revenue [3]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000637 | 成化实华 | 4.09 | -2.15% | 14.49万 | 5949.18万 | | 000698 | 沈阳化工 | 4.14 | -2.13% | 16.23万 | 6749.49万 | | 002476 | 宝草股份 | 5.92 | -1.99% | 92.81万 | 5.471Z | | 002377 | 国创高新 | 3.04 | -1.62% | 22.38万 | 6814.03万 | | 600688 | 上海石化 | 2.76 | -1.08% | 73.33万 | 2.04亿 | | 000985 | 大庆华科 | 17.62 | -0.96% | 1.62万 | 2862.34万 | | 600028 | 中国石化 | 5.36 | -0.74% | 130.70万 | 7.02亿 | | 601857 | 中国石油 | 8.15 | -0.73% | 123.19万 | 10.07亿 | | 000301 ...

Market Overview - The refining and trading sector experienced a decline of 2.4% on September 18, with Bohui Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3831.66, down 1.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13075.66, down 1.06% [1] Stock Performance - Baocao Co. saw a significant increase in stock price, closing at 6.04 with a rise of 10.02% [1] - Other notable performers included Baoli International, which rose by 4.70% to close at 4.68 [1] - Conversely, major companies like Sinopec and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) experienced declines of 1.64% and 2.96%, closing at 5.40 and 8.21 respectively [2] Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector had a net outflow of 398 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 167 million yuan [2] - The total trading volume for Baocao Co. was 1.0165 million shares, with a significant increase in capital flow [3] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Baocao Co. had a main fund net inflow of 1.63 billion yuan, while retail investors had a net outflow of 1.01 billion yuan [3] - Baoli International experienced a main fund net inflow of 16.36 million yuan, with retail investors contributing a net inflow of 17.21 million yuan [3]

Market Overview - The refining and trading sector experienced a decline of 1.23% on September 17, with Yueyang Xingchang leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.34, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13215.46, up 1.16% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the refining and trading sector included: - Heshun Petroleum (603353) with a closing price of 16.84, up 2.18% [1] - Shenyang Chemical (000698) with a closing price of 4.35, up 1.16% [1] - Baoli International (300135) with a closing price of 4.47, up 1.13% [1] - Major decliners included: - Maoyang Xingchang (000819) with a closing price of 17.79, down 2.04% [2] - Compton (603798) with a closing price of 15.99, down 1.54% [2] - Bohai Chemical (600800) with a closing price of 3.94, down 1.50% [2] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector saw a net outflow of 442 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 235 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow for the sector indicated a mixed sentiment among different investor types [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Dongfang Shenghong (000301) with a net inflow of 9.85 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Heshun Petroleum (603353) with a net inflow of 1.38 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Shenyang Chemical (000698) with a net inflow of 7.72 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the ethylene industry as "Outperform the Market" [1][4][5] Core Insights - Ethylene is a cornerstone of the petrochemical industry, with diverse applications across various sectors including packaging, agriculture, construction, textiles, electronics, and automotive [1][12] - China has surpassed the United States to become the world's largest producer and consumer of ethylene, contributing significantly to global capacity growth [1][13] - The global ethylene market is projected to reach USD 146.22 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 5.68% from 2025 to 2034 [1][17][19] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Ethylene production relies on various feedstocks, with naphtha being the primary raw material, while ethane and coal are also significant [12][30] - The average global operating rate for ethylene has dropped to around 82%, with many facilities facing closure risks due to low profitability [21][25] Regional Dynamics - North America and the Middle East maintain a competitive edge in ethylene production costs, primarily due to their access to low-cost ethane [30][44] - Europe and Japan are undergoing structural adjustments, with many facilities shutting down due to high operational costs and low demand [27][39] Capacity Expansion - From 2022 to 2030, Asia, particularly China and India, is expected to account for over 60% of the global ethylene capacity expansion, with China alone projected to reach 83.87 million tons per year by 2030 [3][15] - The report highlights key companies such as Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and China National Petroleum Corporation as leaders in coal and ethane-based ethylene production [3][4][5] Trade Dynamics - The global ethylene trade landscape is shifting, with North America and the Middle East leading in net exports, while Northeast Asia remains a major consumption area [45][46] - Ethylene is primarily traded in derivative forms due to high volatility and transportation costs associated with the monomer [46][48]

Market Overview - The refining and trading sector experienced a decline of 0.99% on September 16, with China Petroleum leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3861.87, up 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13063.97, up 0.45% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the refining and trading sector included: - Hengtong Co., Ltd. (603223) with a closing price of 9.88, up 3.89% [1] - Baoli International (300135) with a closing price of 4.42, up 3.51% [1] - Major decliners included: - China Petroleum (601857) with a closing price of 8.64, down 1.48% [2] - Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) with a closing price of 6.51, down 1.36% [2] Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector saw a net outflow of 395 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 123 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for key stocks included: - China Petroleum with a trading volume of 1.79 million hands and a transaction value of 1.55 billion yuan [2] - Hengtong Co., Ltd. with a trading volume of 136,200 hands and a transaction value of 133 million yuan [1] Capital Inflow Analysis - Key stocks with significant net inflows from institutional investors included: - Hengtong Co., Ltd. with a net inflow of 19.76 million yuan, accounting for 14.87% of its trading volume [3] - Hengli Petrochemical with a net inflow of 18.48 million yuan, accounting for 4.11% of its trading volume [3] - Conversely, stocks like Baoli International experienced a net outflow of 9.15 million yuan from institutional investors [3]